Kellogg Shares Soar on Q1 Earnings Beat and Raised Outlook

Kellogg shares rose over 8% on Thursday after the leading worldwide manufacturer and marketer of ready-to-eat cereals, reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue in the first quarter and lifted the fiscal year 2021 guidance.

The U.S. second-largest biscuit maker reported net sales rose over 5% to $3.58 billion in the quarter ended April 3, up from $3.41 billion seen in the same period a year ago. That was higher than the Wall Street consensus estimates of $3.38 billion.

The Battle Creek, Michigan-based company said its diluted earnings per share rose over 12% to $1.11, beating analysts’ expectations of $0.95 per share.

Kellogg forecasts sales growth to finish 2021 nearly flat year-on-year, an improvement from the previous expectations of about a 1% decline. Adjusted earnings per share is expected to increase by nearly 1% to 2%, up from the previous forecast of a 1% rise.

Following the upbeat results, Kellogg shares rose as high as 8% to $68.14 on Thursday. The stock rose over 8% so far this year.

Analyst Comments

“We expect a positive stock reaction to Kellogg’s large Q1 topline/profit/EPS beat, despite the cycling of solid topline growth in 1Q20, along with slightly raised FY21 guidance. While the magnitude of the FY21 raise was small (organic sales +100 bps, OP/EPS growth +50 bps), it was unexpected as there were concerns about lower or lower-quality FY guidance with commodity pressure,” noted Dara Mohsenian, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

Kellogg Stock Price Forecast

Five analysts who offered stock ratings for Kellogg in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months of $66.00 with a high forecast of $72.00 and a low forecast of $60.00.

The average price target represents a -2.73% decrease from the last price of $67.85. Of those five analysts, two rated “Buy”, three rated “Hold” while none rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley gave the base target price to $60 with a high of $71 under a bull scenario and $43 under the worst-case scenario. The firm gave an “Equal-weight” rating on the food manufacturing company’s stock.

Several other analysts have also updated their stock outlook. Kellogg had its price target cut by Deutsche Bank to $70 from $75. They currently have a buy rating on the stock. Citigroup reduced their price objective to $72 from $75. Jefferies Financial Group dropped their target price to $65 from $69 and set a hold rating. Piper Sandler lowered Kellogg from an overweight rating to a neutral rating and dropped their target price to $66 from $76.

Upside and Downside Risks

Risks to Upside: Higher US snacks growth on reinvestment/innovation, stabilized US cereal business with innovation and higher ad spend, higher-margin expansion on greater cost savings and moderate commodities – highlighted by Morgan Stanley.

Risks to Downside: Pricing pressure in the US (65% of sales) with retailer friction, COVID-related supply chain disruptions in 2020, lower operating profit growth on higher reinvestment needs and cost pressure.

Check out FX Empire’s earnings calendar

Silver to $300

No, I haven’t lost my mind. After all, it’s a metal that’s known for massive rallies.

You see, when silver went trough its 1970s bull market, it started from a low of $1.31 in October 1971. By the time it reached its peak in 1980, silver had run all the way up to $49. That was a 37x return.

If we consider that silver was priced at $4.20 in late 2001, a 37x return would take it to about $155. However, I think this bull market could be an order of magnitude larger for a number of reasons, the main ones being debt, credit and money printing.

As a result, I think silver’s ultimate peak could be $300, and I won’t rule out possibly even higher.

Bullish Silver Fundamentals

Most developed and many developing nations have been in multi-year or even multi-decade deficit scenarios. This now looks to have become a permanent state, at least until we reach some sort of global financial reset.

The Institute of International Finance explains how the COVID-19 pandemic response added $24 trillion to the global debt mountain last year, to reach a new all-time record high of $281 trillion.

And interest rates being maintained at 5,000-year lows will only encourage more debt. Couple that with many countries borrowing to meet interest payments, and central banks soaking up much of that new sovereign debt, and inflation havens like precious metals gain strong appeal.

Silver in particular has the added benefit of 50% of its demand being industrial. With unprecedented economic stimulus programs, many favoring green energy, silver is uniquely positioned to profit. What’s more, according to Metals Focus, silver supply was down 4% in 2020 by 42M ozs. According to the Silver Institute, total supply will rise by 8% this year, though total demand will rise nearly twice as much, by 15%, led by industrial, jewelry and physical demand.

So the fundamental side of silver demand is looking strong, but the technical side is also very bullish.

Bullish Silver Technicals

Let’s consider the gold silver ratio.

As a quick refresher, the gold silver ratio is calculated by simply dividing the spot price for one gold ounce by the spot price of one silver ounce. That’s it. Naturally the higher the ratio, the more silver ounces are needed to buy one gold ounce, and vice versa. The most bullish scenario is when the ratio is falling from a high level, ideally from above 80, and the silver price is rising.

Here’s a chart of the gold silver ratio during the 1970s silver bull market.

To me it’s very intriguing to note how recessions, which are the grey vertical bars, tended to mark troughs and/or peaks in the ratio. What’s also interesting is that when silver reached its peak in 1980, the gold silver ratio ultimately bottomed around the same time at a level near 15, which was below the starting point near 20.

Let’s now move to the current silver bull market which I believe began in 2001. The following chart shows us silver prices since 2000, not adjusted for inflation.

Of course, silver had a tremendous run from $4.20 in 2001 to its 2011 peak at $49. It then corrected until late 2015, then moved sideways until bottoming near $12 last year in March. It had a tremendous move up to $30 within just 5 months and has been mostly consolidating since.

Now let’s examine the gold silver ratio action since 2001.

Again we see peaks and troughs tend to occur (though not exclusively) around recessions (grey bars). At silver’s peak in 2011, the ratio bottomed near 33. It then rose almost constantly up to its all-time peak last March at 125, then fell dramatically to its current level around 67, as silver started to significantly outpace gold. Consider that we know from history silver always outperforms gold in precious metals bull markets. So the current action is particularly exciting for silver.

Silver Targets

But what does it all mean for how high the silver price can go? Of course, no one knows for sure. But there are some indicators worth examining for clues and suggestions.

I believe the ratio will ultimately reach a low near 15. And given the inflationary path we’re on, I think gold could peak at $5,000 per ounce. That’s just 2.5 times last August’s peak near $2,000. In fact, I think there’s even a decent chance gold could reach $10,000, which is just 5 times last August’s peak. But if we stick with $5,000, and an ultimate bottom in the gold silver ratio of 15, we get ($5,000/15) $333 per ounce of silver.

Let’s look at silver price targets from another angle: inflation.

If we consider inflation-adjusted silver prices going back to 1970, we see that the peak reached in 1980 was actually $120/ounce in today’s dollars, and that’s using government sanctioned inflation statistics, which tend to be well below what we experience in everyday life.

Considering the old way of calculating inflation, which the U.S. abandoned decades ago and I reference below from Shadowstats.com, a realistic inflation rate would have averaged 7% – 8% since 1980 (triple official inflation), which would mean an equivalent silver price of $240-$360 dollars at the 1980 peak.

My gold silver ratio target for silver of $333 is comfortably within the range of $240-$360. If we take the mid-way point between $240 and $360, we get $300. I think that’s as good an estimate as any of where silver can peak in its current bull market.

On this basis, the silver price would need to be up by more than 10x from current levels to reach its ultimate high. Imagine for a moment, if silver were to soar tenfold from here, what the silver producers’ and silver explorers’ share prices would do. It’s not difficult to expect simply spectacular returns. Which is exactly why it’s so attractive to allocate to this space, while being diversified across several stocks, as it’s impossible to know which will do best. Still, odds are very good that if silver goes up by a factor of 10, the average silver stock should easily double that, and be up by a factor of 20, while the most successful juniors could gain 50x or more. That would simply be a repeat of previous bull markets.

Larger silver producers and royalty companies should be seen as core positions to be held for the long term. The more junior explorers should be treated more cautiously as speculations, on which to take profits when they materialize. Selling half of one’s position on a double would be especially sensible.

In any case, I believe it remains early days for silver and silver stocks. I expect to see much higher prices ahead in the metal and the equities. And in my view the current bout of weakness is an opportunity to buy or add to positions in this space. Remember, at $26 silver is still nearly 50% below its all-time nominal high, while gold is just 10% below its all-time nominal high. Silver is clearly the better relative bargain.

In the Silver Stock Investor newsletter, I provide my outlook on which silver stocks have the best prospects as this bull market progresses. Many offer 5x to 10x return potential in just the next few years, especially as silver heats up.

I think silver is currently at or very close to its bottom, but that its ultimate peak could well be in the $300 range.

Either way, silver is headed much, much higher.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

MetLife Shares Hit New Record High After Strong Q1 Earnings; Target Price $72 in Best Case

MetLife, one of the largest life insurers in the world, reported better-than-expected earnings in the first quarter of 2021 and said the worst impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was behind, sending shares to a record high on Wednesday.

The New York-based insurer reported net income of $290 million, or $0.33 per share, compared to net income of $4.4 billion, or $4.75 per share, in the first quarter of 2020. Adjusted earnings rose to $2.0 billion, or $2.20 per share, up from adjusted earnings of $1.4 billion, or $1.58 per share, seen in the same period a year ago. That beat the Wall Street consensus estimates of $1.48 per share.

“In the quarter, we were very pleased to return approximately $1.4 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and common stock dividends. We believe the worst impact of the pandemic on our business performance is behind us, and we are well-positioned to create additional value for our stakeholders in the future,” said MetLife President and CEO Michel Khalaf.

The leader of life insurance company said its net investment income rose 74% to $5.3 billion, largely driven by increases in the estimated fair value of certain securities that do not qualify as separate accounts under GAAP and higher variable investment income primarily due to higher private equity returns.

Following the upbeat results, MetLife shares hit an all-time of $65.905 on Wednesday. The stock rose over 39% so far this year.

Analyst Comments

“This quarter’s results clearly received an outsized benefit from strong alternative results, but what impresses us more is the stability and growth in underlying earnings, which should help in our view to drive further upside in the stock,” noted Nigel Dally, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“Operating EPS was $2.20, considerably above both our estimate and the consensus of $1.53. Favorable marks on alternative investments provided more of a boost than expected, contributing over $1 billion to pre-tax earnings above a normal level. Conversely, pandemic-related claims weighed on some divisions, most notably its domestic group insurance operations. Excluding these items, we view the core earnings run-rate potential of the company as being largely in-line with prior expectations.”

MetLife Stock Price Forecast

Nine analysts who offered stock ratings for MetLife in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months of $66.11 with a high forecast of $72.00 and a low forecast of $54.00.

The average price target represents a 1.07% increase from the last price of $65.41. Of those nine analysts, eight rated “Buy”, one rated “Hold” while none rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley raised the base target price to $72 from $70 with a high of $83 under a bull scenario and $48 under the worst-case scenario. The firm gave an “Overweight” rating on the life insurer’s stock.

“Following its retail separation, the company is committed to profitable growth while also simplify its operations to reduce earnings volatility. The company also de-risked its investment portfolio somewhat. Given these moves, the investment thesis for MetLife now revolves around capital management and free cash flow generation, growth in international operations, and expense reduction initiatives,” Morgan Stanley’s Dally added.

“We believe MetLife has the ability to continue its solid execution in its various businesses. More importantly, the solid results over the past several quarters were not driven by a single division, with all segments contributing to earnings growth to a certain extent.”

Several other analysts have also updated their stock outlook. JP Morgan raised the stock price forecast to $66 from $64. UBS initiated with a buy rating and a $72 target price. KBW upped the price target to $68 from $64. Piper Sandler lifted the price objective to $68 from $58. Evercore ISI increased the price target to $65 from $52. RBC raised the target price to $66 from $57.

Check out FX Empire’s earnings calendar

Hyatt Hotels Post Deeper Loss in Q1, Shares Fall

Hyatt Hotels Corporation, a leading global hospitality company, reported a bigger-than-expected loss for the fifth consecutive time in the first quarter of this year, reflecting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and worldwide travel restrictions.

The U.S. hotel operator said its net loss attributable was $304 million, or $2.99 per diluted share, in the quarter ended March 31, 2021, compared to a net loss attributable to Hyatt of $103 million, or $1.02 per diluted share, in the first quarter of 2020.

Adjusted net loss attributable was $363 million, or $3.57 per diluted share, in the first quarter of 2021, compared to Adjusted net loss attributable to Hyatt of $35 million, or $0.35 per diluted share, in the first quarter of 2020. That was worse than Wall Street’s consensus estimates of -$1.33 per share.

The Chicago-based company said its comparable owned and leased hotels RevPAR decreased 64.4% compared to the first quarter of 2020.

Following the disappointing results, Hyatt shares fell 1.56% to $80.68 on Tuesday. The stock rose over 8% so far this year.

Analyst Comments

“Expect a positive reaction to Hyatt’s (H) 1Q21 beat. Rising trends in the United States and the greater China region, which drove outperformance, are likely to accelerate through 2022 while Europe has been a laggard on vaccine distribution. What remains is an acceleration in urban, business transient and group business, which could provide another phase of the recovery,” noted David Katz, equity analyst at Jefferies.

Hyatt Stock Price Forecast

Eleven analysts who offered stock ratings for Hyatt in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months of $60.00 with a high forecast of $71.00 and a low forecast of $52.00.

The average price target represents a 7.50% increase from the last price of $55.82. Of those 11 analysts, eight rated “Buy”, three rated “Hold” while none rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley gave the base target price of $61 with a high of $107 under a bull scenario and $31 under the worst-case scenario. The firm gave an “Equal-weight” rating on the hospitality company’s stock.

“Higher owned exposure suggests risk given the spread of COVID-19 and greater operating leverage. However, Hyatt has lower financial leverage than peers. Higher exposure to increasing new supply and alternative accommodations given more gateway city exposure than peers (e.g., 8% NYC exposure vs. MAR 4% and HLT 3%) puts RevPAR growth at risk,” noted Thomas Allen, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“Potential ability to monetize assets at attractive multiples could create value. Limited float / large insider ownership means constant discount, despite attractive M+F business.”

Several other analysts have also updated their stock outlook. BofA Global Research raised the price objective to $85 from $80. Evercore ISI lifted the target price to $95 from $90. Citigroup increased the price target to $90 from $80. Baird upped the target price to $72 from $63. Jefferies raised the target price to $85 from $75.

Check out FX Empire’s earnings calendar

Investment Firm KKR Tops Earnings Estimates; Target Price $60

U.S.-based investment firm KKR & Co reported better-than-expected earnings in the first quarter of 2021, largely driven by a higher level of carried interest and an increase in transaction and management fees.

The company that manages multiple alternative asset classes said its after-tax distributable earnings rose 63% year-over-year to $660 million, or adjusted $0.75 per share, up from $406.3 million seen in the same period a year ago. That was higher than Wall Street’s expectations of $0.62 per share.

The company, which was formerly known as Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co, said its Assets Under Management (AUM) increased to $367 billion, up 77% year-over-year, with $15 billion of organic new capital raised in the quarter and $51 billion for the LTM period. The acquisition of Global Atlantic contributed $98 billion in 1Q’21.

KKR shares surged more than 38% so far this year. At the time of writing, the stock traded nearly flat at $56.09.

Analyst Comments

“Fee-related earnings of $364M compared to 1Q20 of $258M with transaction fees of $166M vs $98M y/y. The performance fee business recorded +$61M net of compensation which compared to +$138M in the prior-year period. Investment income, which reflects the balance sheet activities, totaled $392M vs. $128M in 1Q20. Ultimately, KKR generated +$660M of after-tax distributable earnings ($0.75/share) and declared a $0.145 dividend in the quarter,” noted Gerald E. O’Hara, equity analyst at Jefferies.

KKR Stock Price Forecast

Eleven analysts who offered stock ratings for KKR in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months of $60.00 with a high forecast of $71.00 and a low forecast of $52.00.

The average price target represents a 7.50% increase from the last price of $55.82. Of those 11 analysts, eight rated “Buy”, three rated “Hold” while none rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley gave the base target price of $60 with a high of $92 under a bull scenario and $22 under the worst-case scenario. The firm gave an “Equal-weight” rating on the investment firm’s stock.

Several other analysts have also updated their stock outlook. KKR & Co. Inc. had its price objective lifted by Deutsche Bank to $52 from $47. They currently have a hold rating on the asset manager’s stock. BMO Capital Markets boosted their target price to $71 from $69. Credit Suisse Group boosted their target price to $60 from $53 and gave the company a neutral rating.

Analyst Comments

“Strong near-term growth with fundraising supercycle and GA accretion coming into earnings, but we see this reflected in the price at the current valuation for a more capital-intensive business model,” noted Michael Cyprys, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“While strong investment performance could drive upward estimate revisions, we have less visibility on more episodic investment income gains. Mgmt’s increased focus on expanding the platform with adjacent strategies and scaling successor funds should drive higher fee-related earnings (FRE).”

Upside and Downside Risks

Risks to Upside: 1) Faster deployment with greater opportunity set. 2) Accelerated portfolio exit activity. 3) Stronger fundraising boosted by seeding of new strategies. 4) Large Insurance M&A – highlighted by Morgan Stanley.

Risks to Downside: 1) Volatile markets leading to weaker investment returns, balance sheet markdowns and delays harvesting of investments pressuring earnings. 2) Increased political and regulatory scrutiny of PE business model.

Check out FX Empire’s earnings calendar

Diamondback Shares Gain as Q1 Profits Top Estimates; Target Price $96

Diamondback Energy shares rose about 3% on Monday after the oil and natural gas company reported better-than-expected profits in the first quarter of 2021 as the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines fueled hopes of restrictions being eased, boosting fuel demand.

The Midland, Texas-based company said its net income was $220 million, or $1.33 per diluted share. The adjusted net income was $379 million, or $2.30 per diluted share. That was higher than the Wall Street consensus estimates of $1.89 per share.

The company said its first-quarter 2021 consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $845 million. Adjusted EBITDA net of non-controlling interest was $836 million. Diamondback also declared a cash dividend of $0.40 per common share.

Diamondback Energy shares rose about 3% to $83.92 on Monday. The stock surged more than 70% so far this year.

Analyst Comments

Diamondback Energy’s (FANG) 1Q was largely pre-released though 8% lower unit costs drove a 13% EBITDA beat and capex was in line. DCPS missed by -9% due to deriv proceeds that flowed through CFF and merger expenses. Notably, FANG sold QEP’s Bakken for $745m, 20% above our est and will accelerate debt paydown. FY21 production guidance was adjusted for asset sales but otherwise reiterated,” noted David Deckelbaum, equity analyst at Cowen.

Diamondback Stock Price Forecast

Eighteen analysts who offered stock ratings for Diamondback in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months of $96.47 with a high forecast of $115.00 and a low forecast of $82.00.

The average price target represents an 18.03% increase from the last price of $81.73. Of those 18 analysts, 14 rated “Buy”, four rated “Hold” while none rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley gave the base target price of $107 with a high of $141 under a bull scenario and $61 under the worst-case scenario. The firm gave an “Overweight” rating on the oil and natural gas company’s stock.

“Low cost of supply relative to peers. Pre-dividend breakeven of $23/bbl WTI (pro-forma) is among the lowest in our coverage after 2020 well cost reductions of >20% with peer-leading operating costs. In a higher price environment FANG can deliver outsized cash returns, while at low oil prices downside is tempered by low breakevens,” noted Devin McDermott, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“Line of sight to leverage reduction. We project net debt/EBITDA decreasing from 2.5x at the end of 2020 to 2.2x by the end of 2021 and 1.9x in 2022.  Recent acquisitions and reduced growth rate should address investors’ inventory concerns. Concerns around inventory should begin to subside after recent acquisitions assuming low single digits long-term growth rate.”

Several other analysts have also updated their stock outlook. Diamondback Energy had its price target upped by research analysts at Roth Capital to $115 from $84. The brokerage currently has a “buy” rating on the oil and natural gas company’s stock. Mizuho lifted their price target to $101 from $92 and gave the company a “buy” rating. Siebert Williams Shank reaffirmed a “buy” rating and issued an $89 price target.

Check out FX Empire’s earnings calendar

General Motors Could Hit New All-Time High on Strong Q1 Earnings; Target Price $69

General Motors, the largest US-based automaker, is expected to report its first-quarter earnings of $1.02 per share, which represents year-over-year growth of over 64% from $0.62 per share seen in the same quarter a year ago.

The Detroit, Michigan-based company would post revenue growth of about 2% to around $33.3 billion.

General Motors’s better-than-expected results, which will be announced on Wednesday, May 5, would help the stock hit new all-time highs. General Motors shares rose over 37% so far this year. The stock traded nearly flat at $57.35 on Monday.

General Motors Stock Price Forecast

Twelve analysts who offered stock ratings for General Motors in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months of $69.42 with a high forecast of $85.00 and a low forecast of $62.00.

The average price target represents a 20.81% increase from the last price of $57.46. Of those 12 analysts, 11 rated “Buy”, one rated “Hold” while none rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley gave the base target price of $80 with a high of $120 under a bull scenario and $32 under the worst-case scenario. The firm gave an “Overweight” rating on the auto manufacturer’s stock.

Several other analysts have also updated their stock outlook. Credit Suisse raised the target price to $72 from $68. BofA lifted the price objective to $80 from $72. UBS increased the target price to $75 from $50. Daiwa Capital Markets upped the price target to $67 from $60. Jefferies raised the target price to $62 from $50.

Analyst Comments

“We are OW based on General Motors’ (GM) diversified portfolio, with multiple ways for GM to enhance shareholder value, through: EVs, ICE and Autonomy. GM also has leading North American margins, generates strong cash flow, and has a robust balance sheet,” noted Adam Jonas, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“We believe that the market is underestimating the SOTP of the GM enterprise via: 1) Legacy ICE, 2) GM EV, 3) GM’s Ultium Battery business, 4) China JVs, 5) GM Finco, 6) GM Cruise, 7) hidden franchise value in brands such as Corvette and 8) GM Connected Services. GM management has a proven track record to allocate capital away from structurally challenged areas towards re-positioning the business model.”

Check out FX Empire’s earnings calendar

Restaurant Brands Tops Q1 Earnings Estimates; Target Price $80 in Best Case

Restaurant Brands International, a global multi-brand franchisor of fast-food restaurants, reported better-than-expected earnings in the first quarter of 2021 and the CEO signaled that the company returned to growth after the COVID-19 slowdown, sending its shares up about 1.2% on Friday.

The parent company of Burger King and Popeye reported quarterly earnings of $0.55 per share during the quarter ended March 31, 2021, beating the Wall Street consensus estimates of $0.50 per share, also, up from $0.48 per share seen in the same period a year ago. Restaurant Brands’ revenues rose about 1% to $1.26 billion.

The company said, as of the end of March 2021, 95% of our restaurants were open worldwide, including substantially all of our restaurants in North America and the Asia Pacific and approximately 92% and 84% of our restaurants in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa and Latin America, respectively.

The U.S.-listed Restaurant Brands shares rose 1.2% to $68.61 on Monday.

“Our first-quarter results signal our return to growth with system-wide sales surpassing Q1 2019 and net restaurant growth nearly matching our best-ever Q1 performance in 2018.  We are excited by the global growth potential of our brands and are encouraged by this early momentum as we work toward a return to historic levels of unit growth this year,” said José E. Cil, Chief Executive Officer of Restaurant Brands.

Analyst Comments

“A relatively in line quarter on top and bottom line, with the hoped-for recovery of Tim’s delayed by new restrictions in Canada. BK strong, esp in the US, but lags other QSRs that have reported thus far. Encouraging data points on digital, unit development. Numbers up modestly, price target to $70,” said John Glass, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“Multi-brand platform QSR operator with a global network of master franchisees. The ability to grow multiple brands through master franchisees is a strategic advantage and drives solid unit growth. Asset lite franchised business model, Lower G&A/capex drive FCF though more spending may be needed as peers ramp investment. Comp-store sales variable. Burger King US and Tim’s have lagged some peers and have room to improve, though we see fewer catalysts beyond easy compares in ’21. Valuation attractive based on FCF and history, though gap to peers has persisted and QSR is not unique in trading at a discount to history among peers.”

Restaurant Brands Stock Price Forecast

Sixteen analysts who offered stock ratings for Restaurant Brands in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months of $70.14 with a high forecast of $80.00 and a low forecast of $61.00.

The average price target represents a 2.23% increase from the last price of $68.61. Of those 16 analysts, 11 rated “Buy”, five rated “Hold” while none rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley gave the base target price of $70 with a high of $92 under a bull scenario and $48 under the worst-case scenario. The firm gave an “Equal-weight” rating on the fast-food holding company’s stock.

Several other analysts have also updated their stock outlook. Stifel raised the target price to $75 from $70. UBS lifted the target price to $74 from $71. Citigroup issued a buy rating and a $74.00 target price on the stock. BMO Capital Markets lifted their price objective to $71 from $66.

“We view shares as fairly valued trading in-line on an FY2 EV/EBITDA basis relative to global, highly franchised peers DPZ, MCD and YUM. Indeed, over the last 5 years, shares have traded in-line with peers while over the last 3 years, shares have traded at an 8% discount. We nudge our price target to $68 from $65, predicated on shares’ 17x FY2 EV/EBITDA multiple sustaining,” noted Andrew M. Charles, equity analyst at Cowen.

Check out FX Empire’s earnings calendar

Earnings to Watch Next Week: ON Semiconductor, Ferrari, General Motors and Moderna in Focus

Earnings Calendar For The Week Of May 3

Monday (May 3)

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: ON SEMICONDUCTOR

ON Semiconductor, a semiconductors supplier company, is expected to report its first-quarter earnings of $0.34 per share, which represents year-over-year growth of over 240% from $0.10 per share seen in the same quarter a year ago.

The Phoenix, Arizona-based company’s revenue would grow over 14% to $1.4 billion.

“The company is the only one in our coverage to see weaker gross margins cycle to cycle. Notably, this is happening despite an improvement in end-market mix toward industrial and autos and away from consumer and computing, where ON has become more selective in recent quarters,” noted Craig Hettenbach, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“We like the message from the new CEO of improving mix of the business but think this has already been reflected in meaningful multiple expansion in the stock. Another thing to consider is the potential for lost revenue as the company deemphasizes some products.”

TAKE A LOOK AT OUR EARNINGS CALENDAR FOR THE FULL RELEASES FOR THE MAY 3

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
ENBL Enable Midstream Partners $0.17
EL Estée Lauder $1.28
WEC Wisconsin Energy $1.47
EPD Enterprise Products Partners $0.50
ON ON Semiconductor $0.34
ITRI Itron $0.40
ALXN Alexion Pharmaceuticals $3.08
L Loews $0.95
CNA CNA Financial $0.95
EPRT Essential Properties Realty Trust Inc $0.29
VRNS Varonis Systems -$0.13
QGEN Qiagen $0.63
RMBS Rambus $0.28
WWD Woodward $0.82
REGI Renewable Energy $0.20
IRBT Irobot $0.06
SCI Service International $0.98
ITUB Itau Unibanco $0.12
FN Fabrinet $1.15
CAR Avis Budget -$2.38
JKHY Jack Henry Associates $0.86
O Realty Ome $0.85
BRX Brixmor Property $0.40
UE Urban Edge Properties $0.22
AWK American Water Works $0.73
NSP Insperity $1.56
APO Apollo Global Management $0.59
RBC Regal Beloit Corporation $1.68
ADC Agree Realty $0.83
CR Crane $1.31
OGS One Gas $1.78
CHGG Chegg $0.31
CVI CVR Energy -$1.23
OHI Omega Healthcare Investors $0.82
XPO XPO Logistics $0.93
FLS Flowserve $0.20
CBT Cabot $0.97
LEG Leggett & Platt $0.41
FANG Diamondback Energy $1.89
SHO Sunstone Hotel Investors -$0.15
KMT Kennametal $0.21
SEDG Solaredge Technologies Inc $1.01
VNO Vornado Realty $0.63
WMB Williams Companies $0.28
AWR American States Water $0.48
MWA Mueller Water Products $0.14
MOS Mosaic $0.50
CC Chemours Co $0.68
LGND Ligand Pharmaceuticals $1.05
CORT Corcept Therapeutics $0.21
CIB Bancolombia $0.34
SANM Sanmina $0.82
EGOV NIC $0.24
AMG Affiliated Managers $4.24

Tuesday (May 4)

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: FERRARI

Ferrari, an Italian luxury sports car manufacturer, is expected to report its first-quarter earnings of $1.26 per share, which represents year-over-year growth of over 27% from $0.99 per share seen in the same quarter a year ago.

The company which is known for its prancing horse logo would post revenue growth of more than 24% to around $1.27 billion

“We find the long-term stability of Ferrari’s revenue, addressable market growth, expansive profit margin, and solid returns on invested capital throughout economic cycles to be compelling reasons to invest at the right price,” noted Richard Hilgert, senior equity analyst at Morningstar.

“Because of its exclusive clientele of high-net-worth individuals, we believe the company will show resiliency during periods of economic uncertainty, such is currently the case with the coronavirus pandemic. While we are not entirely averse to paying up for stocks like Ferrari that possess a wide economic moat and stable economic profits through business cycles, we think Ferrari stock will regularly trade at rich, luxury goods valuation multiples.”

TAKE A LOOK AT OUR EARNINGS CALENDAR FOR THE FULL RELEASES FOR THE MAY 4

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
ARNC Arconic Inc $0.29
CMI Cummins $3.46
CVS CVS Health $1.71
MPLX MPLX $0.61
PFE Pfizer $0.79
SYY Sysco $0.20
TRI Thomson Reuters USA $0.40
MPC Marathon Petroleum -$0.72
NS NuStar Energy $0.28
BR Broadridge Financial Solutions $1.67
ETRN Equitrans Midstream Corp $0.19
DD DuPont $0.77
LDOS Leidos $1.49
D Dominion Resources $1.08
EXPD Expeditors International Of Washington $1.00
RACE Ferrari $1.26
LPX Louisiana Pacific $2.67
CVLT Commvault Systems $0.49
ZBH ZIMMER BIOMET HDG. $1.51
UAA Under Armour Inc $0.04
XYL Xylem $0.37
UA Under Armour C share $0.04
INGR Ingredion $1.62
SEE Sealed Air $0.71
INCY YTE $0.65
BERY Berry Plastics $1.31
LGIH LGI Homes $2.37
BG Bunge $1.55
PCRX Pacira $0.58
RGEN Repligen $0.43
VSH Vishay Intertechnology $0.45
LANC Lancaster Colony $1.26
CTLT Catalent $0.76
KKR KKR & Co LP $0.62
CWH Camping World Holdings $0.54
RHP Ryman Hospitality Properties -$0.78
AME Ametek $1.02
WLK Westlake Chemical $1.56
IAA IAA Inc $0.46
VMC Vulcan Materials $0.41
GPN Global Payments $1.77
IPGP IPG Photonics $1.07
HSIC Henry Schein $0.83
IT Gartner $1.01
CRL Charles River Laboratories $2.19
HEP Holly Energy Partners $0.48
NXST Nexstar Broadcasting $3.11
MLM Martin Marietta Materials $0.51
LAMR Lamar Advertising $1.17
IDXX Idexx Laboratories $1.72
FSS Federal Signal $0.33
MIC Macquarie Infrastructure $0.48
NNN National Retail Properties $0.64
SABR Sabre -$0.51
MYGN Myriad Genetics -$0.10
BEN Franklin Resources $0.74
ZBRA Zebra Technologies $4.41
COP ConocoPhillips $0.57
ETN Eaton $1.25
HI Hillenbrand $0.92
CMP Compass Minerals International $0.72
VRSK Verisk Analytics $1.25
JBGS JBG SMITH Properties $0.31
LYFT Lyft Inc -$0.54
AMCR Amcor PLC $0.18
LSI LIFE STORAGE $1.01
STAG STAG Industrial $0.48
XP XP Inc $0.20
RPAI Retail Properties Of America $0.20
OUT Outfront Media -$0.17
MANT ManTech International $0.83
MED Medifast $2.72
PAYC Paycom Software $1.42
AKAM Akamai $1.30
LSCC Lattice Semiconductor $0.19
ARWR Arrowhead Research $0.34
AFG American Financial $1.74
TTEC TeleTech $1.00
ANET Arista Networks $2.38
GMED Globus Medical $0.36
INSP Inspire Medical Systems Inc -$0.65
ENLC EnLink Midstream -$0.02
IOSP Innospec $1.02
PVG Pretium Resources $0.21
HLF Herbalife $1.06
RDN Radian $0.67
TMUS T-Mobile Us $0.53
ESE ESCO Technologies $0.55
HST Host Hotels & Resorts -$0.15
PKI PerkinElmer $3.03
BKH Black Hills $1.60
ATVI Activision Blizzard $0.69
XLNX Xilinx $0.75
WTS Watts Water Technologies $0.98
AMRC Ameresco $0.10
CZR Caesars Entertainment -$1.77
MCY Mercury General $1.25
MRCY Mercury Systems $0.63
CPK Chesapeake Utilities $1.83
AIZ Assurant $1.96
LPSN LivePerson -$0.14
DOOR Masonite International $1.78
PXD Pioneer Natural Resources $1.82
EQC Equity Commonwealth $0.01
PEAK Healthpeak Properties Inc $0.39
DVN Devon Energy $0.35
RNG RingCentral $0.25
EPAY Bottomline Technologies $0.27
MTCH Match Group $0.46
JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals $3.69
PRU Prudential Financial $2.68
NMIH NMI $0.59
DLB Dolby Laboratories $0.67
HASI Hannon Armstrong Sustnbl Infrstr Cap $0.40
MPWR Monolithic Power Systems $1.33
H Hyatt Hotels -$1.33
WU Western Union $0.45
DEI Douglas Emmett $0.43
EXAS Exact Sciences -$1.04
ALGT Allegiant Travel -$2.59
PTCT PTC Therapeutics -$1.59
Z Zillow $0.26
NRZ New Residential Investment $0.34
LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc $1.42
SU Suncor Energy USA $0.44
MELI MercadoLibre $0.40
HAE Haemonetics $0.67
TDG TransDigm $2.52
IOVA Iovance Biotherapeutics -$0.48
QTRX Quanterix -$0.32
VST Victory Square Tech -$2.04
GRFS Grifolsbarcelona $0.23
BBD Banco Bradesco $0.11
CHT Chunghwa Telecom $0.33

Wednesday (May 5)

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: GENERAL MOTORS

The auto manufacturer is expected to report its first-quarter earnings of $1.02 per share, which represents year-over-year growth of over 64% from $0.62 per share seen in the same quarter a year ago. The Detroit, Michigan-based company would post revenue growth of about 2% to around $33.3 billion.

“We are Overweight based on GM’s diversified portfolio, with multiple ways for GM to enhance shareholder value, through: EVs, ICE and Autonomy. GM also has leading North American margins, generates strong cash flow, and has a robust balance sheet,” noted Adam Jonas, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“We believe that the market is underestimating the SOTP of the GM enterprise via: 1) Legacy ICE, 2) GM EV, 3) GM’s Ultium Battery business, 4) China JVs, 5) GM Finco, 6) GM Cruise, 7) hidden franchise value in brands such as Corvette and 8) GM Connected Services. GM management has a proven track record to allocate capital away from structurally challenged areas towards re-positioning the business model.”

TAKE A LOOK AT OUR EARNINGS CALENDAR FOR THE FULL RELEASES FOR THE MAY 5

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
UTHR United Therapeutics $2.60
HLT Hilton Worldwide $0.05
PNW Pinnacle West Capital $0.28
CERN Cerner $0.74
HFC HollyFrontier -$0.45
ODP Office Depot $1.02
AEIS Advanced Energy Industries $1.27
OMI Owens Minor $0.97
DNB Dun & Bradstreet $0.21
SMG Scotts Miracle-Gro $5.51
DOC Physicians Realty $0.27
WRK WESTROCK $0.62
GOLD Randgold Resources $0.26
TT Trane Technologies PLC $0.62
CIM Chimera Investment $0.31
SRE Sempra Energy $2.60
NYT New York Times $0.15
AVA Avista $0.85
ROCK Gibraltar Industries $0.61
SPR Spirit AeroSystems -$0.93
PEG Public Service $1.12
BWA Borgwarner $0.92
GM General Motors $1.02
JLL Jones Lang LaSalle $0.58
SBGI Sinclair -$2.18
EMR Emerson Electric $0.90
NI NiSource $0.77
ABC AmerisourceBergen $2.50
BRKR Bruker $0.32
FUN Cedar Fair -$1.89
IONS Ionis Pharmaceuticals -$0.47
EXC Exelon $0.42
WAT Waters $1.57
CDW CDW $1.54
CRTO Criteo $0.50
CLH Clean Harbors $0.26
HZNP Horizon Pharma $0.19
SPWR SunPower $0.00
FLEX Flextronics International $0.36
BKNG Booking Holdings Inc -$7.26
QLYS Qualys $0.69
ATO Atmos Energy $2.05
ALL Allstate $3.85
GIL Gildan Activewear USA $0.20
KLIC Kulicke And Soffa Industries $1.20
PTVE Pactiv Evergreen $0.03
LNC Lincoln National $1.48
TTGT TechTarget $0.37
RLJ RLJ Lodging -$0.26
ADPT Adeptus Health -$0.41
PRI Primerica $2.38
ZNGA Zynga $0.09
UNM Unum $1.01
HPP Hudson Pacific Properties $0.46
RUN Sunrun Inc -$0.03
WTRG Essential Utilities Inc $0.66
EPR EPR Properties $0.44
FLT Fleetcor Technologies $2.70
QRVO Qorvo $2.44
UGI UGI $1.72
CDAY Ceridian HCM Holding Inc $0.09
CW Curtiss-Wright $1.30
FMC FMC $1.52
CTSH Cognizant Technology Solutions $0.94
SIMO Silicon Motion Technology $0.94
AEL American Equity Investment Life $0.59
ANSS Ansys $0.85
MET MetLife $1.48
XEC Cimarex Energy $1.70
VAC Marriottacations Worldwide -$0.29
SRC Spirit Realty Capital New $0.73
TNDM Tandem Diabetes Care -$0.15
SJI South Jersey Industries $1.19
EQT EQT $0.28
ETSY ETSY Inc $0.84
MFC Manulife Financial USA $0.59
NBIX Neurocrine Biosciences $0.46
CCMP Cabot Microelectronics $1.94
EQH AXA Equitable Holdings Inc $1.23
MRO Marathon Oil $0.14
CF CF Industries $0.57
STN Stantec USA $0.42
RYN Rayonier $0.08
RSG Republic Services $0.86
FRT Federal Realty Investment $1.02
PDCE PDC Energy $0.83
PYPL PayPal $1.01
BFAM Bright Horizons Family Solutions $0.10
BE Bloom Energy Corp -$0.08
LBTYA Liberty Global Class A Ordinary Shares $0.09
HR Healthcare Realty $0.42
MTG MGIC Investment $0.42
NUVA NuVasive $0.33
ALB Albemarle $0.79
STAA STAAR Surgical $0.02
CPA Copa -$2.21
NUS Nu Skin Enterprises $0.72
TWO Two Harbors Investment $0.21
ACAD Acadia Pharmaceuticals -$0.54
RCII Rent-A-Center $1.11
LOPE Grand Canyon Education $1.67
ORA Ormat Technologies $0.40
KW Kennedy Wilson $0.27
LHCG LHC $1.26
SLF Sun Life Financial USA $1.08
FOXA Twenty-First Century Fox $0.57
FNV Franco Nevada $0.79
QTWO Q2 $0.07
UBER Uber -$0.56
SBRA Sabra Health Care Reit $0.40
RKT Rocket Cos. Inc. $0.89
MDU MDU Resources $0.20
TRMB Trimble Navigation $0.56
GDOT Green Dot $0.93
APA Apache $0.69
HUBG HUB $0.46
KAI Kadant $1.36
SBH Sally Beauty $0.16
BCH Banco De Chile $0.40
DAR Darling Ingredients $0.56
RARE Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical -$1.25
TRNO Terreno Realty $0.39
CCU Compania Cervecerias Unidas $0.32
CENTA Central Garden Pet $1.08
RCKT Rocket Pharma -$0.77
CUB Cubic $0.41
AVNS Avanos Medical Inc $0.18
FMS Fresenius Medical Care $0.45
UGP Ultrapar Participacoes $0.04
ELP Companhia Paranaense De Energia $0.03
LBTYK LIBERTY GLOBAL $0.09
FOX Twenty First Century Fox $0.58
NVO Novo Nordisk A Fs $0.79
BAK Braskem $1.38
AEBZY Anadolu Efes ADR $0.01
OMVJF OMV $0.97
SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics -$2.01
VIV Telefonica Brasil $0.13
ES Eversource Energy $1.10
GBT BMTC Group -$1.02

Thursday (May 6)

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: MODERNA

Moderna Inc, an American biotech company focused on drug discovery, is expected to report its first-quarter earnings of $2.36 per share, up about 700% from the same quarter a year ago. The Massachusetts-based biotechnology company’s revenue would surge to $1.97 billion.

“We are Equal-weight Moderna. While we believe there is long-term upside for Moderna, we believe the significant valuation increase associated with the success of the COVID-19 vaccine limits the near-term upside,” noted Matthew Harrison, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“The company has taken an industrialized approach to developing mRNA-based therapeutics and has rapidly generated a broad pipeline of 21 programs, 11 of which have entered clinical development. We believe Moderna’s mRNA drug development platform is more diversified and scalable compared with competitors and is validated through broad partnerships with Merck and AstraZeneca. We see vaccines and rare diseases as the key valuation drivers of the company.”

TAKE A LOOK AT OUR EARNINGS CALENDAR FOR THE FULL RELEASES FOR THE MAY 6

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
PZZA Papa John’s International $0.55
AY Atlantica Yield -$0.13
SUN Sunoco $0.69
TECH Bio Techne $1.50
ZTS Zoetis $1.04
EPAM EPAM Systems $1.69
APTV Aptiv PLC $0.77
MGA Magna International USA $1.59
VER VEREIT $0.78
WCC Wesco International $0.76
BUD Anheuser-Busch $0.48
IRM Iron Mountain $0.64
LIN Linde PLC $2.26
BDX Becton, Dickinson and Co. $3.04
AES AES $0.31
BLD TopBuild Corp $1.93
HWM Howmet Aerospace Inc $0.20
BIP Brookfield Infrastructure $0.87
PENN Penn National Gaming $0.28
K Kellogg $0.95
PWR Quanta Services $0.74
BLL Ball $0.67
STWD Starwood Property $0.51
SEAS SeaWorld Entertainment -$0.83
CNP CenterPoint Energy $0.50
ALE Allete $1.11
WD Walker & Dunlop $2.01
COMM CommScope $0.31
PRLB Proto Labs $0.37
VG Vonage $0.05
AMRS Amyris -$0.16
BKI Black Iron Inc. $0.51
PBH Prestige Brands $0.79
W Wayfair Inc. $0.27
REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals $8.79
NSIT Insights $1.44
FIS Fidelity National Information Services $1.25
TRGP Targa Resources $0.15
EVOP EVO Payments Inc $0.12
CNQ Canadian Natural Resource USA $0.67
MUR Murphy Oil -$0.16
XRAY Dentsply International $0.55
IDCC InterDigital -$0.01
EVRG Evergy Inc $0.47
CAH Cardinal Health $1.57
EPC Edgewell Personal Care $0.62
THS TreeHouse Foods $0.35
STOR STORE Capital Corp $0.45
HAIN Hain Celestial $0.38
ADNT Adient PLC $0.59
MT Arcelormittal $1.57
OGE OGE Energy $0.18
NJR New Jersey Resources $1.17
MRNA Moderna Inc $2.36
BCRX BioCryst Pharmaceuticals -$0.26
FOCS Focus Financial Partners Inc $0.86
HII Huntington Ingalls Industries $2.52
IIVI Ii Vi $0.88
TPR Tapestry Inc $0.30
ARW Arrow Electronics $2.27
BLDR Builders Firstsource $0.81
INSM Insmed -$1.02
BECN Beacon Roofing Supply $0.01
NWSA News Corp $0.06
XLRN Acceleron Pharma -$0.83
QDEL Quidel $4.87
IHRT Iheartmedia -$0.44
AL Air Lease $1.01
Y Alleghany $4.65
AVLR Avalara Inc -$0.11
ALTR ALTAIR ENGINEERING $0.20
SEM Select Medical $0.65
CGNX Cognex $0.35
LYV Live Nation Entertainment -$1.77
TDC Teradata $0.46
CABO Cable One Inc $10.22
KWR Quaker Chemical $1.51
APLE Apple Hospitality $0.03
CLNE Clean Energy Fuels $0.01
ICUI ICU Medical $1.53
MCHP Microchip Technology $1.74
MTX Minerals Technologies $1.07
PTON Peloton Interactive, Inc. -$0.11
ANGI Angie’s List -$0.04
ENV Envestnet $0.61
CDK Cdk Global $0.68
REG Regency Centers $0.75
AIG AIG $0.99
SQ Square $0.16
MSI Motorola Solutions Msi $1.62
RVLV Revolve $0.13
SFM Sprouts Farmers Market $0.62
OLED Universal Display $0.67
PODD Insulet $0.06
AMH American Homes 4 Rent $0.31
PK Park Hotels & Resorts Inc -$0.55
EXPE Expedia -$2.52
TRIP TripAdvisor -$0.31
LNT Alliant Energy $0.67
FOXF Fox Factory $0.82
HTA Healthcare Of America $0.43
EXEL Exelixis $0.05
POST Post $0.55
CSOD Cornerstone OnDemand $0.42
SYNA Synaptics $1.87
ED Consolidated Edison $1.36
DBX Dropbox $0.30
IRTC iRhythm Tech -$0.87
DRH DiamondRock Hospitality -$0.14
MCK McKesson $5.01
YELP Yelp -$0.26
DIOD Diodes $0.78
CWK Cushman & Wakefield plc -$0.04
RGA Reinsurance Of America $0.07
STMP Stamps $1.63
EOG EOG Resources $1.50
BAP Credicorp USA $2.37
AAON AAON $0.24
MTD Mettler Toledo International $5.65
PCTY Paylocity $0.66
BCC Boise Cascade $2.50
NFG National Fuel Gas $1.21
MTZ MasTec $0.77
TPL Texas Pacific Land $5.77
FNF Fidelity National Financial $1.28
PHI Philippine Long Distance Telephone $0.61
NWS News $0.05
CYRX Cryoport Inc -$0.21
PPL PPL $0.61
NRG NRG Energy $1.64
NKTR Nektar Therapeutics -$0.75
GLUU Glu Mobile $0.07
PLUG Plug Power -$0.08
MNST Monster Beverage $0.61
NTLA Intellia Therapeutics Inc -$0.66
CTRE CareTrust REIT $0.36
ADT ADT $0.15
ARNA Arena Pharmaceuticals -$2.19
SWX Southwest Gas $1.83
MIDD Middleby $1.63
MRTX Mirati Therapeutics -$2.13
JOBS 51job $0.43
PFSI Pennymac Financial Services $5.79
KRTX Karuna Therapeutics -$1.06
MGEE Mge Energy $0.81
ITCI Intra Cellular Therapies -$0.81
XNCR Xencor -$0.77
SATS EchoStar -$0.02
DRNA Dicerna Pharmaceuticals -$0.28
IGMS IGM Biosciences -$0.98
RVNC Revance Therapeutics -$1.19
PAR Par Technology -$0.37
ACIW ACI Worldwide -$0.12
AG First Majestic Silver $0.07
ING Ing Groep $0.23
GFI Gold Fields $0.64
ABEV Ambev $0.03
AGO Assured Guaranty $0.56
MMS Maximus $0.82

Friday (May 7)

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
CI Cigna $4.37
VTR Ventas $0.02
LEA Lear $2.95
MD Mednax $0.16
AMCX AMC Networks $2.01
ENB Enbridge USA $0.57
CCJ Cameco USA -$0.08
TRP Transcanada USA $0.87
LBRDK Liberty Broadband Lbrdk $1.10
SPB Spectrum Brands $0.99
LBRDA Liberty Broadband $0.85
ITT ITT $0.87
FLR Fluor New $0.04
ESNT Essent $1.22
UNVR Univar Solutions Inc $0.32
HE Hawaiian Electric Industries $0.36
RICOY Ricoh Company -$0.08
IBP Installed Building Products $1.04
TU Telus USA $0.23
SSUMY Sumitomo ADR -$0.02
CNK Cinemark -$1.47
CVE Cenovus Energy USA -$0.02
LXP Lexington Realty $0.03

 

Gold Sings a “Hot N Cold” Song

Oh, how wonderful, spring has finally started, hasn’t it? We have April, after all. Well, in calendar terms, it’s indeed spring, but economically it can be summer already or still the beginning of winter. How so? I refer here to Kondratiev cycles (also known as Kondratieff cycles or Kondratyev cycles).

As a reminder, Nikolai Kondratiev was a Russian economist who noted in the 1920s that capitalist economies experience long super-cycles, lasting 40-60 years (yup, it’s not a very precise concept). His idea was that capitalism was not on an inevitable path to destruction, but that it was rather sustainable and cyclical in nature. Stalin didn’t like this conclusion and ordered a prison sentence and, later, an execution for Kondratiev. And you thought that being an economist is a boring and safe profession!

The Kondratiev cycles, also called waves, are composed of a few phases, similar to the seasons of the year. In 2018, I defined them as follows:

  • Spring : economic upswing, technological innovation which drives productivity, low inflation , bull market in stocks, low level of confidence (winter’s legacy).
  • Summer : economic slowdowns combined with high inflation and bear market in stocks, this phase often ends in conflicts.
  • Autumn : the plateau phase characterized by speculative fever, economic growth fueled by debt, disinflation and high level of confidence.
  • Winter : a phase when the excess capacity is reduced by deflation and economic depression, debt is repaid or repudiated. There is a stock market crash and high unemployment rate , social conflicts arise.

However, other economists define these phases in a slightly different manner. For them, spring is an inflationary growth phase, summer is a period of stagflation (inflationary recession ), autumn a deflationary growth period, while winter is a time of deflationary depression.

So, which phase are we in? That’s a very good question. After all, the whole concept of Kondratiev cycles is somewhat vague, so it’s not easy to be precise. But some experts believe that we are likely in the very early part of the winter after a very long autumn . Indeed, there are some important arguments supporting such a view.

First, we have been experiencing a long period of disinflation (and later just low inflation), a decline in the bond yields , and economic growth fueled by debt. I refer here to the time from the end of the Great Recession until the Covid-19 pandemic , but one can argue that autumn lasted since the early 1980s, when both interest rates and inflation peaked, as the chart below shows.

Second, winter is believed to be a depression phase with stock and debt markets collapsing, but with commodity prices increasing. And this is exactly what we are observing right now. I refer here to the rally in several commodity prices. This is at least partially caused by the disruption in the supply chains amid the epidemic in the U.S. and worldwide pandemic, but if the bull market in commodities sets in for good, this could be a negative harbinger for the stock market. After all, more expensive raw materials eat into corporate profits.

Third, winter is thought of as a period that tears the social fabric of society and deepens the inequalities. The data is limited, but the coronavirus crisis has been one of the most unequal in modern U.S. history, as its costs have been borne disproportionately by the poorer parts of society that have been unable to work online.

So, “winter is coming” may be a belated warning, as winter could have already begun. Later during this period, we could see bankruptcies of firms and financial institutions, and even some governments, as a delayed consequences of the coronavirus crisis. This is bad news for the whole of Westeros and its economy, but good for gold. Investors who don’t like the cold should grab a golden blanket to hedge them from the winter.

However, in 2018, I expressed the opinion that summer may come in the 2020s, as the debts are rising and the inflationary pressure is growing:

As the global economy recovered and now expands, inflation is low, while stocks still rally, we enjoy spring. This is why gold has remained in a broad sideways trend in the last few years. However, as we are on the edge of the next technological revolution, confidence is finally rising and there are worries about higher prices, and we could enter the summer phase in the not-so-distant future.

And I still believe that my opinion makes sense. Indeed, after the global financial crisis of 2007-9, we have seen several spring features: low inflation, a bull market in stocks, and a low level of confidence (after all, there was “the most hated rally in the stock market”), which was a legacy of winter, i.e., the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the following economic crisis .

And summer is generally a period of stagflation, which is exactly what I’m expecting. You see, after a strong economic recovery in the nearest quarters, the U.S. economy is likely to return to a mediocre pace of economic growth, but with much higher inflation. After all, there is strong monetary and fiscal stimulation ongoing right now, another feature of summer. Meanwhile, winter is generally a deflationary period, so the specter of inflation rather suggests that summer may be coming and investors should hedge themselves against waves of gold.

Luckily, gold offers its protection not only against winters, but also against summers . Indeed, gold performs the worst during autumns, when there is disinflation, like in the 1980s and the 1990s, and the best during winters (due to the economic crisis – remember the 2000s?) and the summers (due to high inflation – remember the 1970s?).

Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get a 7-day no-obligation trial for all of our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD
Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

 

Amazon Shares Hit Record High After A Blowout Quarter; Analysts Lift Price Targets

Amazon.com, the world’s largest online retailer, reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue in the first quarter of 2021 as online sales surged due to the COVID-19 pandemic, sending shares to a record high on Friday.

The multinational technology company based in Seattle said its net income increased to $8.1 billion in the first quarter, or $15.79 per diluted share, compared with net income of $2.5 billion, or $5.01 per diluted share, in first-quarter 2020. That was higher than the Wall Street consensus estimates of $9.49 per share.

The Seattle, Washington-based company said its net sales increased 44% to $108.5 billion in the first quarter, compared with $75.5 billion in first-quarter 2020. Operating income increased to $8.9 billion.

On the second quarter 2021 guidance, Amazon.com forecast net sales between $110.0 billion and $116.0 billion, or to grow between 24% and 30% compared with second-quarter 2020. Operating income is expected to be between $4.5 billion and $8.0 billion, compared with $5.8 billion in second-quarter 2020.

Following the upbeat results, Amazon shares rose about 2% to hit an all-time high of $3554.00 on Friday.

Analyst Comments

Amazon’s (AMZN) 1Q21 result reflected a broad beat, with rev 4% above cons, Op Inc +43% vs. cons, and strength across all segments, including International growth of +50% y/y, which paced above NA (+39% y/y) for the 2nd quarter in a row; while AWS & adv. accelerated. 2Q21 rev. and Op Inc. guide (high end) were well above consensus. We raised estimates, price target to $4,600 from $4,400, reiterate Outperform,” noted John Blackledge, equity analyst at Cowen.

Amazon Stock Price Forecast

Thirty-four analysts who offered stock ratings for Amazon in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months of $4,300.00 with a high forecast of $5,500.00 and a low forecast of $3,750.00.

The average price target represents a 21.85% increase from the last price of $3,529.04. All of those 34 analysts rated “Buy”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley gave the base target price of $4,500 with a high of $5,300 under a bull scenario and $2,700 under the worst-case scenario. The firm gave an “Overweight” rating on the e-commerce giant’s stock.

Amazon’s high-margin businesses continue to allow Amazon to drive greater profitability while still continuing to invest (last-mile delivery, fulfillment, Prime Now, Fresh, Prime digital content, Alexa/Echo, India, AWS, etc),” noted Brian Nowak, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

Amazon Prime membership growth drives recurring revenue and positive mix shift. Cloud adoption hitting an inflection point. Advertising serves as a key area for both further growth potential and profitability flow-through.”

Several other analysts have also updated their stock outlook. BofA raised the stock price forecast to $4360 from $4150. Canaccord Genuity raised the target price to $4400 from $4100. UBS lifted the price objective to $4350 from $4150. Oppenheimer upped the target price to $4400 from $4200. Raymond James increased the target price to $4125 from $4000. JP Morgan raised the target price to $4,600 from $4,400.

Moreover, Stifel lifted the target price to $4400 from $4000. Deutsche Bank raised the target price to $4500 from $4250. Truist Securities lifted the target price to $4000 from $3750. BMO increased the target price to $4300 from $4200. Mizuho upped the target price to $4400 from $4000. Guggenheim lifted the target price to $4,200 from $4,000. Wedbush lifted the target price to $4,300 from $4,000.

Check out FX Empire’s earnings calendar

Chevron Shares Fall About 3% After Q1 Revenue Disappoints

Chevron shares fell about 3% in pre-market trading on Friday after the oil company reported lower-than-expected revenue in the first quarter of this year as ongoing downstream in margin and volume effects resulting from the pandemic and winter storm Uri offset gains from higher oil prices.

The second-largest U.S. oil producer reported adjusted earnings of $1.7 billion, $0.90 per share, in first-quarter 2021, down about 30% compared to adjusted earnings of $2.5 billion, $1.31 per share, in first-quarter 2020. That was in line with Wall Street’s consensus estimates of $0.88 per share.

However, sales and other operating revenues rose from $31.5 billion in the year-ago period to $32.03 billion, missing the market expectations of $32.5 billion.

Chevron shares fell about 3% to $103.85 in pre-market trading on Friday.

Analyst Comments

“Slight Negative Chevron (CVX) earnings came in line with expectations though could be perceived less favorably compared to beats by peers. FCF was in line with consensus as lower CFO offset lower capex. Cash flow drag from affiliates was higher than expected, though this could have been offset by lower TCO co-lending, and we look for more color on the earnings call. Maintain Outperform, $113 PT,” said Jason Gabelman, equity analyst at Cowen.

“We do not expect any update on TCO FGP this quarter, as the company has previously noted. An update may not come until 3Q21 earnings. Topics of interest on the call include any changed guidance on cash flow drag from distributions & TCO co-lending and timing around re-initiating the buyback.”

Chevron Stock Price Forecast

Sixteen analysts who offered stock ratings for Chevron in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months of $118.94 with a high forecast of $130.00 and a low forecast of $101.00.

The average price target represents an 11.26% increase from the last price of $106.90. Of those 16 analysts, 10 rated “Buy”, six rated “Hold” while none rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley gave the base target price of $127 with a high of $167 under a bull scenario and $69 under the worst-case scenario. The firm gave an “Overweight” rating on the oil company’s stock.

“Strong free cash flow with attractive growth. CVX offers peer-leading cash flow anchored by low-risk investments, a differentiated value proposition in the sector – particularly in the current uncertain macro backdrop. NBL acquisition adds quality, capital-efficient assets and is accretive to financial metrics,” said Devin McDermott, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“Attractive dividend yield. A low corporate breakeven and strong balance sheet supports CVX’s ~5% dividend yield and makes the strategy resilient through the cycle. Differentiated, low-royalty Permian position. CVX holds 1.7 MM acres in the Permian basin containing >21 Bboe of resource. Importantly, >80% of CVX’s Permian acreage is low or no royalty, improving returns and cash flow.”

Several other analysts have also updated their stock outlook. HSBC raised the stock price forecast to $126 from $125.5. Scotiabank lifted the target price to $118 from $115. Raymond James lowered the target price to $120 from $122. Jefferies upped the price target to $109 from $101. Simmons Energy increased the price target to $126 from $113.

Check out FX Empire’s earnings calendar

Comcast Shares Rise After Q1 Earnings Blow Past Estimates; Target Price $65

Comcast Corporation, one of the largest cable television operators in the United States, reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue in the first quarter as an increase in broadband subscribers helped the cable giant to recover from the COVID-19 woes, sending its shares up about 4% on Thursday.

The cable television operator said its revenue for the first quarter of 2021 increased 2.2% to $27.2 billion, beating Wall Street’s consensus estimates of $26.7 billion. Adjusted net income increased 8.1% to $3.5 billion. Adjusted EBITDA increased 3.5% to $8.4 billion.

Comcast said its earnings per share (EPS) for the first quarter of 2021 was $0.71, an increase of 54.3% compared to the first quarter of 2020. Adjusted EPS increased 7.0% to $0.76, above the market expectations of $0.59 per share.

Following this, Comcast shares rose about 4% to $56.17 on Thursday.

The media giant also said its total broadband customer net additions were 461,000, total video customer net losses were 491,000 and total voice customer net losses were 106,000. In addition, cable communications added 278,000 wireless lines in the quarter.

Comcast Stock Price Forecast

Sixteen analysts who offered stock ratings for Comcast in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months of $62.13 with a high forecast of $70.00 and a low forecast of $48.00.

The average price target represents a 10.59% increase from the last price of $56.18. Of those 16 analysts, 13 rated “Buy”, two rated “Hold” while one rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley gave the base target price of $65 with a high of $77 under a bull scenario and $45 under the worst-case scenario. The firm gave an “Overweight” rating on the cable television operator’s stock.

Several other analysts have also updated their stock outlook. Comcast had its price target hoisted by stock analysts at Pivotal Research to $65 from $63. The firm currently has a “buy” rating on the cable giant’s stock. Macquarie lifted their price target to $58 from $53. Truist lifted their price target to $60 from $50. Cowen raised Comcast their price target to $60 from $56.

Analyst Comments

“In Cable, we believe continued runway in broadband will offset video declines, with the mix shift driving rising margins and falling capital intensity. At NBCU/Sky, we believe temporary headwinds from macro and COVID-19 have pressured CMCSA multiples, resulting in an attractive risk/reward,” said Benjamin Swinburne, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

Check out FX Empire’s earnings calendar

eBay Shares Slump Over 6% as Q2 Earnings Forecast Disappoints

US e-commerce giant eBay’s shares slumped over 6% in extended trading on Wednesday after the eCommerce leader for physical and digital merchandise forecast earnings less than what Wall Street had expected for the second quarter of 2021.

The San Jose, California-based company forecasts diluted non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) in the range of $0.91 – $0.96 for the current quarter, below Wall Street’s consensus estimates of $1.02 per share. The company’s revenue is expected to be in the range of $2.98 – $3.03.

Following this, eBay shares slumped over 6% to $58.50 in extended trading on Wednesday.

However, in the first quarter of 2021, the company reported non-GAAP EPS per diluted share of $1.09 on revenue of $3.03 billion, which beat analysts’ EPS expectations of $1.08 on revenue of $2.97 billion, respectively.

eBay has also declared a cash dividend of $0.18 per share of the company’s common stock.

Analyst Comments

“The company guided below the Street. My 2022 EPS number is still much higher than the Street but for now that’s not going to be investor focus. This year the company gave a lower Q2 than Street guide and talked about a challenged back half as people get out more. So, I don’t think investors will swivel and look at the 2022 potential just yet,” noted Chaim Siegel, equity analyst at Elazar Advisors.

“2022 EPS of $7.15 potential with brining payments in-house so 14x $7.15 is almost 70% 12-month upside potential. But again, the focus won’t be next year when the company’s talking about headwinds in growth rates this year.”

eBay Stock Price Forecast

Twenty-one analysts who offered stock ratings for eBay in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months of $71.67 with a high forecast of $84.00 and a low forecast of $62.00.

The average price target represents a 15.00% increase from the last price of $62.32. Of those 21 analysts, ten rated “Buy”, 11 rated “Hold” while none rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley gave the base target price of $63 with a high of $79 under a bull scenario and $45 under the worst-case scenario. The firm gave an “Equal-weight” rating on the e-commerce corporation’s stock.

eBay has shifted its strategy to focus on non-new, in-season, refurbished, collectible goods and continues to repurchase shares. New growth drivers, such as Promoted Listings and Payment intermediation (to be rolled out 2021) are on track,” noted Brian Nowak, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

Several other analysts have also updated their stock outlook. Evercore ISI raised the stock price forecast to $66 from $65. Credit Suisse lifted the target price to $78 from $76. Piper Sandler increased their price target to $75 from $66 and gave the stock an “overweight” rating.

Moreover, DA Davidson increased their price target to $80 from $67 and gave the stock a “buy” rating. Barclays increased their price target to $84 from $82 and gave the stock an “overweight” rating.

Check out FX Empire’s earnings calendar

Hess Shares Soar After Blowout Quarterly Earnings; Target Price $86

Hess Corporation, an independent oil & gas exploration and production company, reported earnings way above what Wall Street had expected for the first quarter of 2021, sending its shares up over 7% on Wednesday.

The energy company said its net income was $252 million, or $0.82 per common share, compared with a net loss of $2,433 million, or $8.00 per common share in the first quarter of 2020. That was more than double the market expectations of $0.36 per share.

Following this, Hess shares surged as much as 7.7% to $75.93 on Wednesday.

However, Hess cut its forecasts for net production, excluding Libya, to be 290,000 boepd to 295,000 boepd from previous guidance of nearly 310,000 boepd.

Analyst Comments

HES beat 1Q EBITDAX estimates by 25% owing to abberationally higher pricing from February’s polar vortex. Oil ex-Libya missed by 1% on weather-related impacts in the Bakken though capex was 31% below consensus. FY capex was maintained at $1.9bn but production guidance was lowered by 6% largely due to NGL POP accounting in the Bakken. We expect a largely neutral response to the print,” noted David Deckelbaum, equity analyst at Cowen.

Hess Corp Stock Price Forecast

Ten analysts who offered stock ratings for Hess Corp in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months of $86.78 with a high forecast of $110.00 and a low forecast of $73.00.

The average price target represents a 14.50% increase from the last price of $75.79. Of those 10 analysts, nine rated “Buy”, one rated “Hold” while none rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley gave the base target price of $82 with a high of $121 under a bull scenario and $41 under the worst-case scenario. The firm gave an “Overweight” rating on the oil & gas exploration and production company’s stock.

“Differentiated rate of change story underpinned by highly economic, long-cycle growth in Guyana balanced by short-cycle optionality in the Bakken. As Guyana production comes online HES‘ breakeven oil price is set to fall from over $70/bbl in 2019 to <$40/bbl by 2025,” noted Devin McDermott, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“Guyana – underappreciated “crown jewel” asset. Guyana asset offers high return economics and underappreciated upside potential as management derisks future development. Rapid payback contract structure puts economics on par to better than most conventional and unconventional developments. Bakken also offers upside. Management’s Bakken target appears conservative as the company shifts to a new completion design.”

Several other analysts have also updated their stock outlook. Raymond James lowered the target price to $90 from $92. Cowen and company lifted the target price to $73 from $60. Susquehanna upped the price target to $83 from $72.

Moreover, CFRA increased the target price to $72. Scotiabank raised the target price to $75 from $71. Credit Suisse lifted the price target to $70 from $58. JP Morgan upped the price target to $80 from $69.

Check out FX Empire’s earnings calendar

Financial Sector Appears Ready To Run Higher

As we transition into the early Summer months, we are watching how different market sectors are reacting to the continued shifting of capital over the past 60+ days.  One this is very clear, certain market sectors are strengthening while others have run into resistance and are consolidating.  We believe the next few weeks and months will continue this type of trend where capital continues to shift away from risks and into sectors that show tremendous strength and opportunity.

We wrote about how Precious Metals are likely starting a new bullish price trend on April 18, 2021. You can read that research article here: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/metals-miners-may-have-started-a-new-longer-term-bullish-trend-part-ii/.

We wrote about how the recent bullish price trend was based on a “wall of worry” and how the markets love to climb higher within this environment on April 14, 2021.  You can read that research article here: https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/us-equities-climb-a-wall-of-worry-to-new-highs-720109

We also published an article on April 11, 2021 suggesting the Cannabis Sector had reached a Pennant Apex and would likely begin a new bullish price trend after some “shakeout” price volatility near the Pennant Apex.  You can read that research article here: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/is-the-cannabis-alternative-sector-rally-ready-to-breakout-again/.

XLF May Rally Another 8% – 10% Or More

Today, we are revisiting a recent research article suggesting the Financial Sector may be poised for another rally trend targeting the $38.00 level first, then the $39.40 level based on our research.  The financial sector continues to trend higher after the COVID-19 market collapse.  Global central banks and government policies are very accommodating to stronger earnings and growth in the Financial sector.  Recently, the US Government passed a new COVID stimulus bill that allocates money for at-risk borrowers to help elevate foreclosure actions.

It is very likely that these continued actions to support a stronger US and global recovery will translate into higher price trending in the Financial sector as we move into the Summer months – where weather and Summer activities push people back outside and into more active lifestyles.

Using our Fibonacci Measured Move technique, we have identified a support level in XLF near $34.50.  Therefore, as long as price stays above this level, we believe a continued bullish price trend will push future prices towards the target levels near $38.00, then $39.40. We are watching for the next 0.61% Fibonacci level, near $36.93, to be breached as a sign the bullish price trend is accelerating.

Although the market may appear to be very extended and overbought, we still believe there is room to run for certain market sectors.  XLF, MJ, GDXJ, SILJ, and many others have recently moved into our watchlist for new bullish trends.  Are you ready for profit from these moves?

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Have a great week!

Chris Vermeulen
Founder & Chief Market Strategist
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

 

Market Leverage Reaches New All-Time Highs As The Excess Phase Rally Continues

A recent Forbes article highlights the incredible increase in market leverage since the start of the COVID-19 crisis.  There has never been a time in recent history where market leverage has reached these extreme levels.  Additionally, highly leveraged market peaks are typically associated with asset bubbles.

The easy money policies and global central bank actions have prompted one of the longest easy money market rallies in history.  Historically low interest rates, US Federal Reserve and global central bank asset-buying programs, and extended overnight credit support have prompted some traders and investors to move into a more highly leveraged position expecting the rally to stay endless.  Although, the reality of the global market trends may be starting to cause traders and investors to become a bit unsettled.  Precious Metals, Utilities, and Bonds have all started reacting to perceived fear related to this extended bullish rally trend recently.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2021/04/24/uh-oh-market-leverage-at-all-time-high/?sh=29eadac1e8a9

My research team and I believe the current market rally will likely continue as capital shifts away from extended market sectors.  We believe the transition away from the new US President and the new policies associated with this change of leadership has already started taking place – which is why Precious Metals, Utilities, and Bonds are starting to trend.  Yet, we believe the momentum behind this current rally is likely to extend through the end of April and into early May 2021.

Custom Volatility Index Shows Bullish Trending & Price Volatility Risks

Our Custom Volatility Index chart, below, shows the US markets have just recently rallied back to previous bullish market trending levels (above 13 on this chart).  Once this Custom Volatility Index reaches these levels, we normally expect two market traits to continue.  First, we expect bullish trending because the Volatility Index above 10~11 strongly suggests an extended bullish trend is in place.  Secondly, we expect moderate price rotation to take place after the Volatility Index reaches levels above 13~14.

It is very common for the Volatility Index to move above the 13~14 level in extended rally trends.  Yet, it is also common for the markets to rotate or retrace after reaching these levels.  Therefore, this Custom Volatility Index chart shows the US markets have moved into extreme bullish price trending and has already reached a peak level near 15 – which suggests we can expect some moderate price rotation within the next 3 to 5+ weeks.

Whenever the US major indexes trend higher in longer-term extended trends, the Custom Volatility Index typically stays above 10~11 and continually attempts to rally above 12~13.  The “Peak Volatility Channel” on this chart highlights areas of extreme peaks in the markets.  When the Custom Volatility Index reaches this level, price becomes more likely to rotate or retrace a bit before attempting to move higher.

Smart Cash Index Shows Global Markets Need To Break Above 210 TO Begin A New Rally Phase

Our following Custom Smart Cash Index shows the global markets have been struggling to move higher over the past few months.  Even though the US markets have attempted to rally to new highs, the Smart Cash Index chart shows this recent rally has not been seen in the global markets.

My team and I believe the next rally phase in the markets must initiate with the Smart Cash Index chart rallying above 210 and representing a moderately strong global market push higher throughout the May/June 2021 time span.  If the Smart Cash Index fails to move above the 210 price level, the we believe a moderate price correction may be setting up for May or June 2021 where the US markets may move moderately lower, attempting to retest recent support, then begin another rally attempt.

Currently, the global stock market and financial system leverage may be an unknown catalyst for some type of future market movements.  The Forbes article suggests these new all-time high leverage levels are likely the result of global central bank policies where traders and investors believe the central banks will continue to support the markets indefinitely.  As much as we would like to think this may be the case, the reality is that, at some point, normalization will take place in the global markets and that presents an ominous deleveraging event in the future.

We are watching how the market’s sectors are shifting trends and how some of the strongest sectors are shifting and weakening over the past 60+ days.  For example, the Russell 2000 had been one of the strongest market sectors up until about 2 months ago.  Now it appears to be trading in a sideways trend – attempting to move back into a bullish price trend.

Our research team believes traders and investors need to be prepared for quickly shifting sector trends over the next 6+ months as this highly leveraged global market event plays out.  Our research suggests a price rotation event is near and the global markets are still trending in a moderately strongly bullish trend. The strongest sectors are going to continue to be the best performers over time.  Being able to identify and trade these sectors is key to being able to efficiently target profits.  You can learn more about how I identify and trade these sectors by registering for my FREE course here.

For those who believe in the power of trading on relative strength, market cycles, and momentum but don’t have the time to do the research every day then my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service does all the work for you with daily market reports, research, and trade alerts. More frequent or experienced traders have been killing it trading options, ETFs, and stocks using my BAN Hotlist ranking the hottest ETFs, which is updated daily for my premium subscribers.

Enjoy the rest of your Sunday!

Chris Vermeulen
Founder & Chief Market Strategist
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Starbucks Shares Fall After it Misses Revenue Estimates, But Analysts Optimistic on Outlook

Starbucks shares fell about 2% in post-trading hours on Tuesday after the world’s leading specialty coffee retailer reported lower-than-expected revenue in the fiscal second quarter of 2021, although the coffee chain raised its full-year guidance.

The Seattle-based retailer said its consolidated net revenues rose 11% from the prior year to $6.7 billion, missing Wall Street’s consensus estimates of $6.82 billion.

Following this, Starbucks shares slumped about 2% to $144.16 after trading hours on Tuesday. The stock rose over 8% so far this year.

However, the world’s leading restaurant chains reported non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.62, up from $0.32 in the prior year. That was also higher than the analysts’ expectations of $0.52 per share.

Starbucks raised its forecasts for revenue and profit for the fiscal year 2021 to $28.5 billion-$29.3 billion and non-GAAP EPS in the range of $2.90-$3.00, up from the previous projection of $28.0 billion-$29.0 billion and $2.70-$2.90, respectively.

Analyst Comments

“Bottom line beat driven by exceptional margin performance, while top-line ~ expectations, but underscoring full recovery vs pre-COVID-19. Guidance raised as hoped, but we still see room for upside. Full valuation/high expectations likely keep NT stock reaction in check. Raise price target to $120, maintain Equal-weight,” noted John Glass, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“FY21 guidance was raised for a few key items based on better-operating results, including revenue of $28.5-29.3B vs prior guidance of $28-29B; adj. operating margin of 16.5-17.5% (from 16-17%) which is still expected to lag the sales recovery by two quarters and should reach the longer-term 18-19% target by yearend (our estimate is above this); adj. EPS of $2.90-3.00 from $2.70-2.90 previously (both with 10c from the 53rd week and comparing to our prior estimate of $2.84 and consensus $2.85); and a more favorable tax rate in the low to mid-20%s from mid-20%s prior. Other items including comps, new store openings, capex and interest expense for the year were reiterated.”

Starbucks Stock Price Forecast

Twenty analysts who offered stock ratings for Starbucks in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months of $121.76 with a high forecast of $137.00 and a low forecast of $104.00.

The average price target represents a 4.83% increase from the last price of $116.15. Of those 20 analysts, 13 rated “Buy”, seven rated “Hold” while none rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley raised the base target price of $120 from $110 with a high of $150 under a bull scenario and $79 under the worst-case scenario. The firm gave an “Equal-weight” rating on the coffee retailer’s stock.

Several other analysts have also updated their stock outlook. CFRA raised the stock price forecast to $125 from $115. Jefferies lifted the target price to $135 from $118. Stifel upped the price objective to $124 from $115.

Moreover, UBS increased the stock price forecast to $118 from $109. Stephens raised the target price to $115 from $100. Oppenheimer lifted the price objective to $135 from $122.

“Raise PT, reiterate Buy. Recovery ongoing in the U.S. and China predicated on a powerful and trusted brand, and we expect the LT framework to prove realistic and drive best-in-class TSR. PT to $135 (from $118) as we shift our multiple to 21.5x our newly introduced’C23E EBITDA of $7.9B, in line with global large-cap growth,” noted Andy Barish, equity analyst at Jefferies.

Check out FX Empire’s earnings calendar

3M Shares Slump as it Keeps Full-Year Guidance Unchanged

3M Company shares slumped about 4% on Tuesday after the maker of N95 masks kept its full-year 2021 guidance unchanged despite beating earnings estimates for the first quarter.

The U.S. technology company said net sales grew about 10% to $8.9 billion, beating the market expectations of $8.47 billion. Both first-quarter GAAP and adjusted earnings were $2.77 per share, resulting in year-on-year increases of 23% and 27% on a GAAP and adjusted-basis, respectively. That was higher than Wall Street’s consensus estimates of $2.25 per share.

3M’s full-year 2021 guidance remains unchanged with earnings expected to be in the range of $9.20 to $9.70 per share. The company expects its full-year total sales growth in the range of 5 to 8% with organic local-currency growth between 3 to 6%.

Following this, 3M shares slumped over 3.6% to $192.43 on Tuesday.

Analyst Comments

“The trend of significant beats and modest raises or limited updates to full-year guidance has been more prominent this quarter but with consensus near the high end as management reiterates following a significant beat, the line between conservatism and caution could be a bit blurrier. Price/cost was negative in the quarter and commentary appears to imply that trend continues, which is a rarity for 3M,” noted Joshua Pokrzywinski, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“Outside of Health Care, some of the biggest Y/Y drivers of improvement were in businesses with less visibility: Personal Safety, Electronics, Automotive, and Home Improvement. Strength in HC and other “general industrial” verticals should be sustainable though.”

3M Stock Price Forecast

Eight analysts who offered stock ratings for 3M in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months of $192.88 with a high forecast of $202.00 and a low forecast of $175.00.

The average price target represents a -0.59% decrease from the last price of $194.02. Of those eight analysts, two rated “Buy”, four rated “Hold” while two rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley raised the base target price of $200 from $258 with a high of $232 under a bull scenario and $161 under the worst-case scenario. The firm gave an “Equal-weight” rating on the technology company’s stock.

Several other analysts have also updated their stock outlook. Zacks Investment Research upgraded shares of 3M from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating and set a $196 price target. Citigroup lifted their price objective to $188 from $185. Barclays lifted their price objective to $180 from $163 and gave the company an “underweight” rating.

Upside and Downside Risks

Risks to Upside: A resolution of the PFAS issue would drive a positive reaction in the stock and multiple re-rating. Accelerating end-market demand driving growth well in excess of GDP – highlighted by Morgan Stanley.

Risks to Downside: A majority of 3M’s businesses are levered to general industrial short cycle momentum. A broader industrial slowdown could disproportionately impact 3M’s ability to hit its LT targets.

Check out FX Empire’s earnings calendar

Will Euro and Gold Go Up With Pandemic Upturn in Euro Area?

The Governing Council of the European Central Bank met last week, keeping its monetary policy unchanged. The inaction was widely expected – no surprises here. The June meeting could be much more interesting as the ECB will have to decide whether or not to slow its bond buying under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme that was accelerated in the second quarter of the year. Given the dovish stance of the European policymakers, and the bank’s pledge to provide the markets with favorable financing conditions during the pandemic, we shouldn’t expect any tapering soon.

Certainly, there are important dovish parts of the latest ECB’s statement on its monetary policy . It stems from the grim economic situation in the euro area. The real GDP declined by 0.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2020, and it is expected to decrease again in the first quarter of 2021. The nearest future doesn’t look promising:

The near-term economic outlook remains clouded by uncertainty about the resurgence of the pandemic and the roll-out of vaccination campaigns. Persistently high rates of coronavirus (COVID-19) infection and the associated extension and tightening of containment measures continue to constrain economic activity in the short term.

However, investors should always look beyond the near-team outlook. In the medium-term, the situation in the euro area looks much better. As the ECB notes, this is because the current virus wave seems to have peaked in Europe, while the pace of vaccination is accelerating:

Looking ahead, the progress with vaccination campaigns, which should allow for a gradual relaxation of containment measures, should pave the way for a firm rebound in economic activity in the course of 2021.

Furthermore, the European Union’s 750 billion euro recovery fund has cleared a key court challenge. Last week, the Germany’s constitutional court dismissed objections to the European aid package.

All these factors are positive for the euro and, thus, also for the price of gold. As you can see in the chart below, gold was highly correlated with the spread between the American and German long-term government bond yields – the widening divergence in the US and European interest rates that started in August 2020 pushed the yellow metal down.

Implications for Gold

The third wave of pandemic has already peaked in Europe; therefore, the old continent may somewhat catch up with the US. This could narrow the divergence in yields, creating downward pressure on the greenback while supporting the gold prices .

Another positive factor for the euro and the yellow metal is the fact that although inflation jumped in both the US and the euro area, it’s much higher in the former country as the chart below shows. So, the purchasing power parity could support the common currency, as well as gold, against the greenback.

What’s funny here is that Lagarde , just as Powell , argued that inflation “has picked up over recent months on account of some idiosyncratic and temporary factors and an increase in energy price inflation”. Sure, some idiosyncratic and temporary factors helped inflation to soar, but there are always some idiosyncratic and temporary factors. All the same, the central bankers point to them only when inflation rises, never when it declines. They always refer to these factors to justify their dovish bias and easy monetary policy.

Of course, it might be the case that inflation won’t materialize, just like it never did after the Great Recession . But this time may be really different due to the surge in the broad money supply and a huge increase in government spending in the form of direct cash transfers to citizens who are hungry for traveling, eating in restaurants, and generally a normal life with all its money-spending. So, inflation is the wild card, which makes it reasonable to have some gold in investment portfolios . Investors should remember that gold is an investor’s asset rather than a demand asset, which means that in periods of reflation , gold initially lags commodities, only to outperform them and shine brightly in later phases.

If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD
Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care