Salesforce Q1 Earnings and Revenue to Rise Over 20%; Target Price $272

The San Francisco, California-based software company Salesforce is expected to report its first-quarter 2022 earnings of $0.88 per share, which represents year-over-year growth of over 25% from $0.70 per share seen in the same period a year ago.

The leading provider of enterprise cloud computing solutions would post revenue growth of about 21% to $5.9 billion. In the last four quarters, on average, the company has beaten earnings estimates over 18%.

The company was founded in 1999 on the concept of delivering CRM applications via the Internet reported record sales in 2020, with revenue up more than 23% to $21.3 billion, to hit $20 billion for the first time ever.

According to Zacks Research estimates, Salesforce will post fiscal 2022 revenue growth of 21% to $25.7 billion, with FY23 projected to climb 19% higher to come in at $30.5 billion. Meanwhile, its adjusted FY22 earnings are projected to fall 30% to $3.44 a share, with FY23 then set to bounce 18% above our current-year estimate.

Salesforce shares traded about 2% higher at $226.50 on Monday, ahead of its fiscal first-quarter 2022 earnings to be released on Thursday, May 27.

Analyst Comments

“Our survey points to a strong qtr w/ 83% of partners meeting/beating targets, the best quarterly performance we’ve seen since the pandemic. Checks indicate project investments are coming back online & the avg CY21 growth outlook increased to 32% vs. 21% last qtr,” noted J. Derrick Wood, equity analyst at Cowen.

“We think good margin upside is likely too. With weak sentiment, we see an attractive set-up into the print.”

Salesforce Stock Price Forecast

Twenty-two analysts who offered stock ratings for Salesforce in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months of $272.19 with a high forecast of $315.00 and a low forecast of $230.00.

The average price target represents a 20.18% increase from the last price of $226.49. Of those 22 analysts, 18 rated “Buy”, four rated “Hold” while none rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley gave the stock price forecast of $270 with a high of $381 under a bull scenario and $186 under the worst-case scenario. The firm gave an “Overweight” rating on the cloud-based software company’s stock.

“Well positioned for ramping digital transformation demand and more constructive margin commentary from management tilts the risk/reward significantly more favorably, particularly given the 25% relative under-performance in Salesforce (CRM) post the Slack announcement. Upgrading to Overweight with a $270 price target,” noted Keith Weiss, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

Several other analysts have also updated their stock outlook. The Goldman Sachs Group set a $315 price target. The firm currently has a buy rating on the CRM provider’s stock. Sanford C. Bernstein set a $233 price target and gave the stock a neutral rating. Jefferies cut the target price to $300 from $320. Mizuho slashed the price objective to $270 from $290.

Check out FX Empire’s earnings calendar

Best ETFs For June 2021

A portfolio of outlier stocks can become chock full of monster gains for years to come, if chosen wisely.

But wouldn’t it be great if there was already a collection of outliers we could buy without even having to think about it?

Well maybe there is a way to do just that… through outlier ETFs.

So, here I’m going to give you the best ETFs that big money is getting involved in this month.

First thing’s first: to find them, I looked at all the ETFs making Big Money signals. I did that by heading over to MAPsignals.com and then looked at the Big Money ETF Buys and Sells chart. I looked at days with the biggest buying, circled here:

Once I had all the ETFs, I wanted to know which were the best potential opportunities. ETFs are baskets of stocks. And because MAPsignals scores over 6,000 stocks every day, as long as I know which stocks make up the ETFs, I can rank them all.

Here are the 5 best ETFs with scores: The Composite score, Technical score, and Fundamental score. These were computed by accounting for each components stock’s score and its associated weighting in the ETF. (keep in mind that weightings will change from time to time)

Below we see each ETF, their recent Big Money activity, and their scores. XLF, ITB, and XLC are top ranked ETFs. That makes sense because financials, home builders, and communications stocks have been leading the market much of this year so far.

IGV and ARKG, however, rank low on our list of ETFs. But there is opportunity here because the low scores are due to weak technicals. Big Money has been selling these ETFs, largely because they are heavily concentrated in growth stocks. But these stocks have excellent fundamentals: growing sales and earnings and big profits. These weak ETFs represent great potential bargains.

Let’s quickly look at the year-to-date performance of these 5 ETFs:

  • XLF +29.3%
  • ITB +29.2%
  • XLC +13.5%
  • IGV -4.0%
  • ARKG -18.1%

Now let’s quickly look at Big Money buying in the ETFs. Each chart below has many green bars which represents unusually large buying. The few red bars represent unusually large selling. What jumps out is the huge buying in all the ETFs.

Only with IGV and ARKG, there was recent selling too. But again, selling on ETFs and stocks with great fundamentals represents a value opportunity.

Source: www.mapsignals.com, End of day data sourced from Tiingo.com

Here’s why I like these ETFs: they are highly concentrated with fundamentally superior stocks. Below we see a table of three stocks in each ETF. They are some of the highest weightings in each.

Notice their fundamental scores are very strong on a scale from 0-100. This means strong growing sales, earnings, and profits over one and three years. This is how MAPsignals boils down all its fundamental research into one elegant score.

Now with XLF, ITB, and XLC – we see the stocks also have strong technical scores. That means Big Money has been pouring into them, lifting them to new highs. They are buoyant with Big Money support. But in IGV and AKG, we see weak technical scores. This means Big Money has been exiting the stocks.

But before you get spooked, let’s keep the recent environment in mind: Growth has fallen out of favor while value and reopen stocks have become all the rage. But it’s essential to remember these growth companies create phenomenal products and services enhancing our lives. I don’t foresee that stopping in the future. The recent selling is temporary and thematic.

What really drives this home is looking at how long-term Big Money buying can lead to monstrous gains. Below are charts showing all the instances these stocks were Top stocks in our research since 2015: our weekly report of outliers. We don’t need to go into details on each chart.

I’d like you to notice a few things:

  • When Big Money buying pours in, stocks go up
  • Repeated outliers, especially for years often means outsized gains

Owning outlier stocks is the way I try to beat markets. Easy exposure to many stocks can be achieved by buying ETFs. But just like anything, you must be in the 1% if you want to be in the 1%.

We can find outlier ETFs by tracking the Big Money. But that alone isn’t enough: when we catalog the components and find outlier stocks underneath… that’s the winning recipe.

So, there you have it: the 5 best ETFs that Big Money has been trafficking in recently. Outlier ETFs hold outlier stocks. Finding them is the key to finding potentially outlier gains.

Now let’s look at what those look like:

Source: www.mapsignals.com, End of day data sourced from Tiingo.com

The Bottom Line

XLF, ITB, XLC, IGV, & ARKG represent top ETFs for June 2021. Financials, homebuilders, & Communications stocks have performed well lately, which should continue. Software and Genomics companies have reached interesting levels, too. Paying attention to the fundamental quality of ETF constituents is paramount.

To learn more about MAPsignals’ Big Money process please visit: www.mapsignals.com

Disclosure: the author holds long positions GOOGL, CRM, & REGN in managed accounts, but no positions in XLF, ITB, XLC, IGV, ARKG, BLK, SCHW, SPGI, DHI, LEN, LOW, FB, ATVI, ADBE, MSFT, TDOC, & VRTX at the time of publication.

Investment Research Disclaimer

Salesforce.com Could Rally To 300

Dow component Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) is gaining ground in Wednesday’s market after Morgan Stanley upgraded the sales tracking giant to ‘Overweight’. The stock posted an all-time in the 280s in September, just days after the company was added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Price action since that time has carved an orderly but persistent bull flag pattern that’s been engaged in nearly six months of testing at 200-day moving average support.

Major Acquisition

The stock ended a 12-day 20% slide in March 2021 after Slack Technologies Inc. (WORK) reported a Q4 2020 loss of $0.01 per-share. Salesforce bought the business technology provider for $27 billion in December 2020 in a transaction expected to close in the second quarter of 2022. Price action since that time has tracked bilateral catalysts, adding volatility and modest downside. Even so, the company remains on track to hit new highs sometime this year.

Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss raised his Salesforce rating to ‘Overweight’ with a $270 target on Wednesday, advising the pullback since September “creates a good entry point.” He also notes the company is “well positioned to benefit from an accelerating pace of investment in strategic digital transformation initiatives” and added that “significantly” better performance in past two quarters has addressed critics of the December acquisition.

Wall Street and Technical Outlook

Wall Street consensus is solid as a rock, with a ‘Buy’ rating based upon 32 ‘Buy’, 3 ‘Overweight’, and 9 ‘Hold’ recommendations. No analysts are recommending that shareholders close positions and move to the sidelines. Price targets range from a low of $200 to a Street-high $336 while the stock has opened Wednesday’s session just $18 above the low target. Caution after Salesforce’s outsized 37% 2020 return is contributing to this dismal placement.

Salesforce broke out above 2018 resistance above 160 in January 2020 and failed the breakout during the pandemic decline. It bounced back to the first quarter peak in July and broke out in August, surging into the 280s after addition to the Industrial Average. That marked the top, followed by a bull flag correction that should hold support near 200. Just keep in mind a breakdown will also fail the third quarter breakout, exposing a trip into the 150s.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Disclosure: the author held no positions in aforementioned securities at the time of publication. 

Twitter Gains Amid Clubhouse Buyout Speculation

Twitter, Inc. (TWTR) shares added nearly 3% Wednesday after Bloomberg reported that the social media giant considered acquiring popular invitation-only audio-chat app, Clubhouse. The platform allows users to host shows, listen to panel discussions and engage in live chats.

People familiar with the matter said both parties discussed a possible valuation of $4 billion for Clubhouse but added that the negotiations had ceased. A potential buyout would have brought across the app’s 10 million active weekly users and complemented Twitter’s own recently launched beta-stage audio offering, Spaces. Such is the success of the Clubhouse app, other tech companies, including Facebook, Inc. (FB), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), and Salesforce.com, inc. (CRM) have begun to develop similar features on their social media platforms.

As of April 8, 2021, Twitter stock has a market value of $55.1 billion and trades up 27.41% YTD. Over the past 12 months, the shares have surged nearly 170%. From a valuation standpoint, the stock trades 46% above its five-year average forward earnings multiple of 49 times.

Wall Street View

In February, Piper Sandler analyst Thomas Champion bumped up the investment firm’s price target on the stock to $61 from $45 while reiterating his ‘Neutral’ rating. Champion believes the company sits well-positioned to capitalize on daily active user growth it gained from the U.S. election. He also likes improvements the social media giant has made to its products and advertising.

Elsewhere, the stock receives 25 ‘Hold’ ratings, 10 ‘Buy’ ratings, 4 ‘Sell’ ratings, and 1 ‘Underweight’ rating. Twelve-month price targets range from a Street-high $95 to a low of $30. Through Wednesday’s close, the shares trade 5% below the median analyst price target of $72.50.

Technical Outlook and Trading Tactics

Twitter’s share price has remained in a steady uptrend since the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA last summer. After a recent retracement to the 50-day SMA, the stock has regained upside momentum, with the MACD moving above its trigger line to generate a buy signal.

Active traders who buy here should look for an initial retest of all-time high (ATH) at $80.75, followed by a possible move higher. Protect against losses by placing a stop-loss order either beneath the 50-day SMA or under last month’s swing low at $59.28, depending on personal risk tolerance.

For a look at today’s earnings schedule, check out our earnings calendar.

Salesforce Shares Slump as Fiscal 2022 Profit Forecast Disappoints

Salesforce.com Inc, an American cloud-based software company, reported better-than-expected profit and revenue in the fiscal fourth quarter but shares slumped over 3% on disappointing full-year 2022 profit.

The leading provider of enterprise cloud computing solutions said it expects full-year 2022 non-GAAP earnings per share in the range of $3.39 and $3.41, below Wall Street consensus estimates of $3.49.

Following this pessimism, Salesforce shares, which surged over 35% in 2020 and added another 4% so far this year, slumped more than 3% to $224.05 in extended trading on Thursday.

The San Francisco, California-based software company said its fourth-quarter revenue rose 20% year-over-year to $5.82 billion, beating the market expectations of $5.68 billion. The fourth-quarter GAAP diluted earnings per share came in at $0.28, and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share was $1.04, above analysts’ expectations of $0.75 per share.

The leading provider of enterprise cloud computing solutions upgraded its fiscal 2022 revenue forecast to $25.65-$25.75 billion, better than the market consensus of $25.42 billion.

“We think Salesforce’s results are generally consistent with software peers who are experiencing robust demand arising from the need to accelerate the broad digital transformation efforts that were already underway. Deal sizes continue to grow larger as conversations are increasingly about the digital transformation of a customer’s entire organization rather than just a specific area,” said Dan Romanoff, equity analyst at Morningstar.

“Customers remain focused on the post-pandemic operating environment and want flexibility, which reinforces the rationale for the Slack acquisition. We are raising our fair value estimate to $265 per share, from $253, based on rolling our forecast and the solid near-term results and guidance. With the recent pullback, we think shares are undervalued.”

Salesforce Stock Price Forecast

Twenty-six analysts who offered stock ratings for Salesforce in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months of $273.78 with a high forecast of $320.00 and a low forecast of $217.00.

The average price target represents an 18.48% increase from the last price of $231.08. From those 26 analysts, 19 rated “Buy”, seven rated “Hold” and none rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley gave the base target price of $270 with a high of $381 under a bull scenario and $186 under the worst-case scenario. The firm gave an “Equal-weight” rating on the cloud-based software company’s stock.

“While investments made in FY21 weigh on cash flow growth in FY22, they also improve Salesforce‘s already strong positioning ahead of key secular growth drivers as we head into an improving spending environment. The pullback in shares also creates a more attractive risk/reward at 34X EV/CY22 FCF,” said Keith Weiss, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

Several other analysts have also updated their stock outlook. Piper Sandler lowered the target price to $240 from $242. BofA upped the price objective to $300 from $275. Salesforce.com had its price target hoisted by Mizuho to $290 from $275. The firm currently has a buy rating on the CRM provider’s stock.

Moreover, BMO Capital Markets upped their price objective to $285 from $260 and gave the company an outperform rating. Barclays set a $276 target price and gave the stock a buy rating. Raymond James increased their target price to $280 from $255 and gave the stock a strong-buy rating. JMP Securities increased their target price to $282 from $272 and gave the stock an outperform rating.

Analyst Comments

“While Salesforce remains one of our best secularly positioned names given enterprise IT spend prioritized towards digital transformation, we see current valuation reflective of long-term share gains and achieving management’s target for $50 billion revenue in CY25,” Morgan Stanley’s Weiss added.

“At CRM‘s current scale and market cap, an increasing focus on FCF and earnings is necessary for further price appreciation, in our view. However, the recent large ($27 billion) and dilutive acquisition of Slack makes margin expansion in the near to medium term less likely. We look for greater clarity and confidence into revenue growth and margin framework at CRM in order to get more constructive.”

Check out FX Empire’s earnings calendar

Earnings to Watch Next Week: Palo Alto Networks, Home Depot, Nvidia and Salesforce in Focus

Earnings Calendar For The Week Of February 22

Monday (February 22)

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: PALO ALTO NETWORKS

The Santa Clara, California-based cybersecurity company is expected to report a profit of $1.43 per share in the fiscal second quarter, which represents year-over-year growth of over 20% from $1.19 per share seen in the same quarter a year ago.

The global cybersecurity leader would post year-over-year revenue growth of over 20% to $985.681 million.

“A rapidly growing Next-Gen Security platform plus a stable core network security business remains the equation for durable 20%+ billings growth heading into the FQ2 print. More clarity into the dual growth engines should drive further multiple expansion, with our SoTP valuation yielding a $515 price target,” noted Keith Weiss, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

Palo Alto Networks offers a disruptive platform, well-positioned to address the evolving threat landscape. We believe Palo Alto Networks will continue to differentiate itself from its peers as it proves out a broader TAM around a NextGen Security Platform (and executing to that opportunity). With the strong billings base and the continued drive towards higher operating margins, we remain confident in the durability of our FCF estimates. Currently trading at 22x CY22e FCF vs. our model which looks for 18% FCF CAGR from CY21-26e and terminal 23x CY26e FCF, we continue to see attractive risk/reward in PANW shares.”

TAKE A LOOK AT OUR EARNINGS CALENDAR FOR THE FULL RELEASES FOR THE FEBRUARY 22

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
DPH Dechra Pharma £32.57
BNZL Bunzl £71.65
DISCB Discovery Communications Discb $0.72
DISCA Discovery Communications $0.71
GHC Graham $8.87
DISCK Discovery Communications Disck $0.72
KBR KBR $0.49
DORM Dorman Products $0.92
KFY Korn Ferry International $0.51
CTB Cooper Tire Rubber $0.92
THRM Gentherm $0.65
DISH Dish Network $0.78
BZLFY Bunzl plc $0.13
CDNS Cadence Design Systems $0.74
PANW Palo Alto Networks $1.43
SBAC SBA Communications $0.52
RSG Republic Services $0.81
WMB Williams Companies $0.30
O Realty Ome $0.35
SID Companhia Siderurgica Nacional $0.11
OKE ONEOK $0.74
IR Ingersoll Rand $0.45
EXR Extra Space Storage $0.91
TREX Trex $0.36
FIVN Five9 $0.23
NDSN Nordson $1.06
FANG Diamondback Energy $0.82
LSI LIFE STORAGE $0.54
XEC Cimarex Energy $0.68
AL Air Lease $0.75
PSB PS Business Parks $0.80
SBRA Sabra Health Care Reit $0.18
CNNE Cannae -$0.09
NHI National Health Investors $1.01
AWR American States Water $0.47
BCC Boise Cascade $0.99
HTA Healthcare Of America $0.11
RIG Transocean -$0.18
MRO Marathon Oil -$0.20
CVI CVR Energy -$0.72
GDOT Green Dot $0.18
WRI Weingarten Realty Investors $0.10
ACC American Campus Communities $0.09
OXY Occidental Petroleum -$0.58
ICAD Icade €2.33
PPERY PT Bank Mandiri Persero TBK $0.09
MGEE Mge Energy $0.51
CCU Compania Cervecerias Unidas $238.63
TPL Texas Pacific Land $4.66
SHCAY Sharp ADR $0.08
BKRKY Bank Rakyat $0.13
PKX Posco $1.52
WF Woori Bank $0.75
GPFOY Financiero Inbursa ADR $0.13
OSH Oak Street Health -$0.25
YALA Yalla $0.12
KHOLY Koc Holdings AS $0.20
DM Dominion Midstream Partners -$0.06
AU Anglogold Ashanti $1.85
CRI Carters $2.74
AVST Avast Holdings £0.12

 

Tuesday (February 23)

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: HOME DEPOT

The U.S. largest home improvement retailer is expected to report a profit of $2.61 per share in the fourth quarter, which represents year-over-year growth of over 14% from $2.28 per share seen in the same quarter a year ago. In the last four consecutive quarters, on average, the company has delivered an earnings surprise of 3.60%.

The Cobb County, Georgia-based company’s revenue would surge more than 18% to $30.45 billion.

Home Depot has witnessed continued strong demand for home-improvement projects as customers spent more time at home during the coronavirus pandemic. The company has been gaining from the high-demand environment, driven by investments in its business. This coupled with broad-based strength across stores and geographies has been boosting comparable sales (comps) performance,” noted analysts at Zacks Equity Research.

“Amid the pandemic, customers have been blending the physical and digital elements of the shopping experience more than ever before making the company’s interconnected One Home Depot strategy the most relevant. Its interconnected retail strategy and underlying technology infrastructure have helped consistently boost web traffic in the past six months. Additionally, it has been benefiting from enhanced delivery and fulfilment options to provide a robust interconnected experience. Gains from these efforts are likely to have aided the company’s sales and earnings performance in the fiscal fourth quarter.”

TAKE A LOOK AT OUR EARNINGS CALENDAR FOR THE FULL RELEASES FOR THE FEBRUARY 23

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
UTG Unite Group £45.10
HSBA HSBC Holdings £0.01
CROX Crocs $0.82
ARNC Arconic Inc $0.35
CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store $0.75
WLK Westlake Chemical $0.74
MDT Medtronic $1.15
SPR Spirit AeroSystems -$0.83
FE FirstEnergy $0.47
BCO Brinks $0.98
HD Home Depot $2.61
BNS Scotiabank $1.24
BMO Bank Of Montreal USA $1.69
CBRE CBRE Group Inc $0.94
LDOS Leidos $1.61
BLD TopBuild Corp $1.95
NXST Nexstar Broadcasting $6.99
TRI Thomson Reuters USA $0.46
M Macy’s $0.05
AWI Armstrong World Industries $0.67
RLGY Realogy $0.57
ETRN Equitrans Midstream Corp $0.34
LGIH LGI Homes $4.05
SATS EchoStar -$0.03
GMAB Genmab A/S kr7.68
XNCR Xencor -$0.38
ARNA Arena Pharmaceuticals -$1.84
EC Ecopetrol $0.22
HSBC HSBC $0.08
TX Ternium $1.02
COG Cabot Oil Gas $0.21
CBD Companhia Brasileira De Distrib $0.46
FLS Flowserve $0.53
PXD Pioneer Natural Resources $0.69
INFN Infinera $0.02
MTG MGIC Investment $0.40
XP XP Inc $1.05
SQ Square $0.24
INTU Intuit $0.99
CSGP CoStar $2.42
VRSK Verisk Analytics $1.30
PODD Insulet -$0.04
HEI Heico $0.48
MASI Masimo $0.85
EQH AXA Equitable Holdings Inc $1.21
CHE Chemed $5.13
TOL Toll Brothers $0.47
WES Western Gas Partners $0.59
HALO Halozyme Therapeutics $0.53
INSP Inspire Medical Systems Inc -$0.46
JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals $4.24
Y Alleghany $5.04
RRC Range Resources $0.05
EPRT Essential Properties Realty Trust Inc $0.16
MTDR Matador Resources $0.12
CHX ChampionX Corp $0.04
MATX Matson $1.36
APLE Apple Hospitality -$0.14
ATRC AtriCure -$0.28
PEB Pebblebrook Hotel -$0.90
DAR Darling Ingredients $0.42
MRTX Mirati Therapeutics -$2.28
ALLK Allakos -$0.85
JBGS JBG SMITH Properties $0.29
IHG Intercontinental Hotels $0.94
VERX Vertex Inc. Cl A $0.07
JYSK Jyske Bank kr8.46
VIV Telefonica Brasil $0.15
CXO Concho Resources $1.18
MNTA Momenta Pharmaceuticals -$0.50
IHG Intercontinental £0.97
VJBA Vestjysk Bank kr0.08
FMS Fresenius Medical Care $0.74

 

Wednesday (February 24)

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: NVIDIA

The Santa Clara, California- based multinational technology company is expected to report a profit of $2.80 per share in the fiscal fourth quarter, which represents year-over-year growth of over 48% from $1.89 per share seen in the same quarter a year ago.

The company, which designs graphics processing units for the gaming and professional markets, as well as system on a chip unit for the mobile computing and automotive market, forecasts revenue of $4.8 billion.

NVIDIA‘s fiscal fourth-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from growth across all of its business segments except the Automotive and Professional Visualization units. NVIDIA is also anticipated to have benefited from strength in its data-centre business on the growing adoption of cloud-based solutions amid the coronavirus crisis-induced work-from-home wave. Increase in Hyperscale demand and growing adoption in the inference market are likely to have been tailwinds during the to-be-reported quarter,” noted analysts at Zacks Equity Research.

“Additionally, the pandemic-induced remote-working wave is likely to have bolstered sales of graphic chips utilized in desktops and laptops. This, in turn, is anticipated to have aided the quarterly performance. Nonetheless, disruptions in retail channel sales due to lockdown and social-distancing measures implemented by governments across the world to contain the spread of coronavirus might have partially offset the benefit of solid demand for the remote-working and online-learning hardware infrastructure.”

TAKE A LOOK AT OUR EARNINGS CALENDAR FOR THE FULL RELEASES FOR THE FEBRUARY 24

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
RY Royal Bank Of Canada $1.78
TCP TC Pipelines $0.99
RGEN Repligen $0.31
ENBL Enable Midstream Partners $0.11
LOW Lowe’s Companies $1.20
LIVN LivaNova PLC $0.66
HZNP Horizon Pharma $1.05
IONS Ionis Pharmaceuticals $0.26
CLH Clean Harbors $0.39
VER VEREIT $0.19
IRM Iron Mountain $0.31
WEX WEX $1.46
AVA Avista $0.79
SBGI Sinclair $5.07
ITRI Itron $0.34
SIX Swiss Exchange -$0.89
WYND Wyndham Destinations Inc $0.49
PNW Pinnacle West Capital $0.04
VRT Veritas Pharma $0.33
HFC HollyFrontier -$0.71
ODP Office Depot $0.95
TJX TJX Companies $0.61
OSTK Overstock $0.17
EXC Exelon $0.69
ETR Entergy $0.67
TRN Trinity Industries $0.15
IBP Installed Building Products $1.23
EV Eaton Vance $0.89
UTHR United Therapeutics $2.95
ORA Ormat Technologies $0.37
WTRG Essential Utilities Inc $0.45
VAC Marriottacations Worldwide $0.03
SJI South Jersey Industries $0.54
STN Stantec USA $0.33
STAA STAAR Surgical $0.08
ACAD Acadia Pharmaceuticals -$0.47
PDCE PDC Energy $0.85
APA Apache -$0.10
ANSS Ansys $2.54
PSA Public Storage $1.93
KW Kennedy Wilson $0.07
EPR EPR Properties -$0.32
UNVR Univar Solutions Inc $0.24
DDD 3D Systems $0.09
ADPT Adeptus Health -$0.29
RVLV Revolve $0.11
LB L Brands $2.90
GEF Greif $0.54
FTI FMC Technologies $0.15
ESI Itt Educational Services $0.28
MMSI Merit Medical Systems $0.43
NOVA Nova Mentis Life Science Corp -$0.36
CHDN Churchill Downs -$0.39
AGI Alamos Gold $0.13
CW Curtiss-Wright $2.33
RCII Rent-A-Center $1.00
DOOR Masonite International $1.14
RDN Radian $0.63
FNF Fidelity National Financial $1.32
AMED Amedisys $1.46
AWK American Water Works $0.80
NVDA Nvidia $2.80
NTAP NetApp $1.01
PTVE Pactiv Evergreen $0.25
UFPI Universal Forest Products $0.71
TNDM Tandem Diabetes Care $0.12
BKNG Booking Holdings Inc -$3.85
GBT BMTC Group -$0.95
PAC Grupo Aeroportuario Del Pacifico $0.67
CIB Bancolombia $0.17
PBR Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras $0.15
GGB Gerdau $0.07
ASR Grupo Aeroportuario Del Sureste $14.83
UGP Ultrapar Participacoes $0.05
TS Tenaris $0.00
LYG Lloyds Banking $0.02
DY Dycom Industries $0.05
WB Weibo $0.72
SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics -$1.99
SSYS Stratasys -$0.10
KOF Coca Cola Femsa Sab De Cv $0.60
MIDD Middleby $1.40
CLGX CoreLogic $1.06

 

Thursday (February 25)

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: SALESFORCE.COM

The San Francisco, California-based global cloud computing company is expected to report a profit of $0.75 in the fourth quarter, which represents year-over-year growth of about 14% from $0.66 per share seen in the same quarter a year ago.

The company, which develops CRM solutions and provides business software on a subscription basis, would post revenue growth of 17% to nearly $5.7 billion.

“While Salesforce remains one of our best secularly positioned names given enterprise IT spend prioritized towards digital transformation, we see current valuation reflective of long-term share gains and achieving management’s target for $50 billion revenue in CY25,” said Keith Weiss, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“At CRM‘s current scale and market cap, an increasing focus on FCF and earnings is necessary for further price appreciation, in our view. However, the recent large ($27 billion) and dilutive acquisition of Slack makes margin expansion in the near to medium term less likely. We look for greater clarity and confidence into revenue growth and margin framework at CRM in order to get more constructive.”

TAKE A LOOK AT OUR EARNINGS CALENDAR FOR THE FULL RELEASES FOR THE FEBRUARY 25

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
AMRN Amarin -$0.02
SHEN Shenandoah Telecommunications $0.85
NTLA Intellia Therapeutics Inc -$0.61
ITCI Intra Cellular Therapies -$0.86
SHOO Steven Madden $0.21
PLUG Plug Power -$0.07
AGIO Agios Pharmaceuticals -$1.31
DPZ Dominos Pizza $3.88
INSM Insmed -$0.67
MRNA Moderna Inc -$0.34
PCG PG&E $0.21
EME EMCOR $1.44
NLSN Nielsen $0.46
NRG NRG Energy $0.45
BCRX BioCryst Pharmaceuticals -$0.24
TREE LendingTree -$1.00
AES AES $0.43
DCI Donaldson $0.51
TD Toronto-Dominion Bank $1.16
WWW Wolverine World Wide $0.17
AMT American Tower $1.25
CCOI Cogent Communications $0.21
OGE OGE Energy $0.29
SRE Sempra Energy $1.58
SJM J.M. Smucker $2.17
SAFM Sanderson Farms -$0.66
ROCK Gibraltar Industries $0.63
CWT California Water Service $0.26
W Wayfair Inc. $0.82
SEAS SeaWorld Entertainment -$0.71
CNP CenterPoint Energy $0.19
PZZA Papa John’s International $0.48
STWD Starwood Property $0.49
EVOP EVO Payments Inc $0.21
DOC Physicians Realty $0.08
CLNY Colony Financial -$0.58
LI Li Auto -$0.24
NTES NetEase $2.82
PLAN Progressive Planet -$0.10
CLF Cliffs Natural Resources $0.20
EXLS ExlService $1.07
KDP Keurig Dr Pepper $0.40
PWR Quanta Services $1.00
FSS Federal Signal $0.41
FCN FTI Consulting $1.17
GIL Gildan Activewear USA $0.21
CWH Camping World Holdings $0.18
PCRX Pacira $0.81
NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line -$2.17
TFX Teleflex $3.05
FLIR FLIR Systems $0.62
VIPS Vipshop $3.13
IOVA Iovance Biotherapeutics -$0.44
IRTC iRhythm Tech -$0.29
MNST Monster Beverage $0.55
REGI Renewable Energy $0.68
XLRN Acceleron Pharma -$0.59
AAON AAON $0.29
DRNA Dicerna Pharmaceuticals -$0.08
PVG Pretium Resources $0.25
LPSN LivePerson $0.01
SWI Solarwinds $0.25
EIX Edison International $1.20
VGR Vector $0.18
BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutical -$0.17
EOG EOG Resources $0.37
RKT Rocket Cos. Inc. $0.88
VICR Vicor $0.19
SFM Sprouts Farmers Market $0.39
ETSY ETSY Inc $0.57
PTCT PTC Therapeutics -$0.92
SEM Select Medical $0.36
EGO Eldorado Gold USA $0.33
SWN Southwestern Energy $0.14
ACHC Acadia Healthcare $0.68
UHS Universal Health Services $2.79
MTZ MasTec $1.67
ERIE Erie Indemnity $1.09
BVN Compania De Minas Buenaventura $0.22
FTCH Farfetch -$0.13
WDAY Workday $0.55
VMW VMware $2.05
HPQ HP $0.66
CRM Salesforce.com $0.75
MED Medifast $2.38
OUT Outfront Media -$0.04
PRAH PRA Health Sciences Inc $1.47
LHCG LHC $1.39
RLJ RLJ Lodging -$0.64
STOR STORE Capital Corp $0.21
ICUI ICU Medical $1.51
CUBE CubeSmart $0.20
ENDP Endo International Ordinary Shares $0.46
LYV Live Nation Entertainment -$2.25
ALTR ALTAIR ENGINEERING $0.00
AMH American Homes 4 Rent $0.06
CABO Cable One Inc $11.60
ADT ADT $0.30
RUN Sunrun Inc $0.07
CZR Caesars Entertainment -$1.94
HHC Howard Hughes -$0.70
PK Park Hotels & Resorts Inc -$0.90
FOXF Fox Factory $0.78
ADSK Autodesk $1.07
CWK Cushman & Wakefield plc $0.35
FSLR First Solar $1.25
NUVA NuVasive $0.56
ENV Envestnet $0.65
INT World Fuel Services $0.23
FIX Comfort Systems USA $0.84
NKTR Nektar Therapeutics -$0.67
BIG Big Lots $2.50
AY Atlantica Yield $0.16
PDCO Patterson Companies $0.51
KWR Quaker Chemical $1.52
AEBZY Anadolu Efes ADR $0.01
SWX Southwest Gas $1.57
AEP American Electric Power $0.78
ARRY Array Technologies Inc $0.05
ALXO Alx Oncology Holdings Inc. -$0.36
ACIW ACI Worldwide $0.49
VIST Vista Oil Gas -$0.08
BUD Anheuser-Busch $0.89
BAYRY Bayer AG PK $0.38
CM Canadian Imperial Bank Of Commerce USA $2.19
SRCL Stericycle $0.63
BBY Best Buy $3.45
ABEV Ambev $0.05
NNI Nelnet $5.78
AGO Assured Guaranty $0.57
BRFS BRF $0.08
TEF Telefonica $0.23
VALE Vale $0.91
NGLOY Anglo American ADR $0.62

 

Friday (February 26)

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
CNK Cinemark -$1.46
IEP Icahn Enterprises -$0.47
EVRG Evergy Inc $0.22
LSXMK Liberty Media SiriusXM C $0.15
PNM PNM Resources $0.15
AMCX AMC Networks $0.49
VST Victory Square Tech $0.64
BLDR Builders Firstsource $0.90
FL Foot Locker $1.29
FLR Fluor New $0.22
RHP Ryman Hospitality Properties -$1.90
STRA Strayer Education $1.48
LAMR Lamar Advertising $0.78
MGLN Magellan Health -$0.30
GRFS Grifolsbarcelona $0.22
PEG Public Service $0.65
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Salesforce Correction May Be Over

Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) topped out at 284.50 just two days after joining the Dow Industrial Average on Aug. 31 and dropped 25% into mid-January, filling the August gap between 218 and 249. An early December selloff, after the cloud computing juggernaut announced the acquisition of Slack Inc. (WORK), generated most of the technical damage during the decline, carving a 16-point gap that still hasn’t been filled.

Bouncing Off Strong Support

Market cycles are slowly turning ahead of the Feb. 23 earnings release, suggesting the intermediate correction is finally coming to an end. Analysts are expecting around 17% revenue growth in the next year, lower than the 20% or so in prior quarters, due to the slowing of large enterprise deals. However, the 5-month selloff has cleared the decks, shaking out weak-handed shareholders while dropping the stock onto strong support in the low 200s.

Loop Capital analyst Yun Kim upgraded Salesforce to ‘Hold’ this week, noting, “We are upgrading shares based on the following reasons: 1) current FY22 estimates have been de-risked (current 17% organic revenue growth estimate vs. previous annual organic revenue growth target of 20%), 2) checks indicate a modest rebound in its core business, driven by increasing mid-sized deal activity and continued strength in its Tableau and Mulesoft businesses, and 3) shares already fairly reflect risks related to the WORK acquisition”.

Wall Street and Technical Outlook

Wall Street consensus is solid as a rock, with a ‘Buy’ rating based upon 29 ‘Buy’, 4 ‘Overweight’, and 6 ‘Hold’ recommendations. No analysts are recommending that shareholders close positions and move to the sidelines. Price targets currently range from a low of $211 to a Street-high $270 while the stock opened Thursday’s U.S. session about $7 below the median $234 target. Price could drift higher into earnings, given this humble placement.

The stock broke out above the February 2020 high at 196 in July and took off in a vertical advance in August, posting an all-time high at 284.50 in September.  The subsequent pullback carved a trading range into December and broke down, landing on the 200-day moving average in January. Price is now caught between that trading floor and resistance at the 50-day moving average, with a breakout above 230 ringing the first in a series of potential buying signals.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Disclosure: the author held no positions in aforementioned securities at the time of publication. 

Stock Pick Update: Dec. 23 – Dec. 29, 2020

In the last five trading days (December 16 – December 22) the broad stock market has extended its short-term consolidation following record-breaking run-up. The S&P 500 index reached new record high of 3,726.70 on Friday, before retracing most of last week’s advances.

The S&P 500 has lost 0.24% between December 16 open and December 22 close. In the same period of time our five long and five short stock picks have lost 0.04%. Stock picks were relatively slightly stronger than the broad stock market last week. Our long stock picks have lost 3.94%, however short stock picks have resulted in a gain of 3.86%. Short stock picks’ performance outpaced the benchmark return on the downside, but the whole portfolio followed broad stock market very closely.

There are risks that couldn’t be avoided in trading. Hence the need for proper money management and a relatively diversified stock portfolio. This is especially important if trading on a time basis – without using stop-loss/ profit target levels. We are just buying or selling stocks at open on Wednesday and selling or buying them back at close on the next Tuesday.

If stocks were in a prolonged downtrend, being able to profit anyway, would be extremely valuable. Of course, it’s not the point of our Stock Pick Updates to forecast where the general stock market is likely to move, but rather to provide you with stocks that are likely to generate profits regardless of what the S&P does.

Our last week’s portfolio result:

Long Picks (December 16 open – December 22 close % change): XOM (-5.74%), COP (-8.91%), WFC (-2.29%), BK (+0.02%), FB (-2.79%)
Short Picks (December 16 open – December 22 close % change): DUK (-3.10%), EVRG (-4.03%), SPG (-5.23%), CBRE (-5.37%), KO (-1.57%)

Average long result: -3.94%, average short result: +3.86%
Total profit (average): -0.24%

Stock Pick Update performance chart since Nov 18, 2020:

Let’s check which stocks could magnify S&P’s gains in case it rallies, and which stocks would be likely to decline the most if S&P plunges. Here are our stock picks for the Wednesday, December 23 – Tuesday, December 29 period.

We will assume the following: the stocks will be bought or sold short on the opening of today’s trading session (December 23) and sold or bought back on the closing of the next Tuesday’s trading session (December 29).

We will provide stock trading ideas based on our in-depth technical and fundamental analysis, but since the main point of this publication is to provide the top 5 long and top 5 short candidates (our opinion, not an investment advice) for this week, we will focus solely on the technicals. The latter are simply more useful in case of short-term trades.

First, we will take a look at the recent performance by sector. It may show us which sector is likely to perform best in the near future and which sector is likely to lag. Then, we will select our buy and sell stock picks.

There are eleven stock market sectors: Energy, Materials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Financials, Technology, Communications Services, Utilities and Real Estate. They are further divided into industries, but we will just stick with these main sectors of the stock market.

We will analyze them and their relative performance by looking at the Select Sector SPDR ETF’s .

Based on the above, we decided to choose our stock picks for the next week. We will choose our 5 long and 5 short candidates using trend-following approach:

  • buys: 2 x Technology, 2 x Energy, 1 x Financials
  • sells: 2 x Utilities, 2 x Real Estate, 1 x Consumer Staples

Buy Candidates

CRM Salesforce.com, Inc. – Technology

  • Stock remains above its short-term upward trend line
  • Uptrend continuation play
  • The support level is at $220 and resistance level is at $240-250 (short-term target profit level)

NVDA NVIDIA Corp. – Technology

  • Stock trades above medium-term upward trend line
  • Possible breakout above short-term consolidation
  • The support level is at $490-500 and resistance level is at $550

PSX Phillips 66 – Energy

  • Possible short-term bull flag pattern – uptrend continuation play
  • The support level is at $60 and resistance level is at $70

Summing up , the above trend-following long stock picks are just a part of our whole Stock Pick Update . The Technology and Energy sectors were relatively the strongest in the last 30 days. So that part of our ten long and short stock picks is meant to outperform in the coming days if the broad stock market acts similarly as it did before.

We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today’s Stock Pick Update – this analysis’ full version. There, we include the stock market sector analysis for the past month and remaining long and short stock picks for the next week. There’s no risk in subscribing right away, because there’s a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today .

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Thank you.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits – Effective Investments through Diligence and Care

 

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

Nasdaq Hits Yet Another Record Close

The major indices closed mixed on Wednesday (Dec. 16), as the Nasdaq hit yet another record close amidst stimulus optimism and the Fed’s dovish tone.

News Recap

  • Although the Dow Jones closed lower by 44.77 points, or 0.15%, the S&P 500 gained for the second day in a row and rose by 0.18%. The Nasdaq closed once again at a record high and gained 0.5%.
  • Sentiment for the day started negatively after the Commerce Department reported a steeper-than-expected drop in U.S. retail sales. The department stated that retail sales fell by 1.1% in November compared to estimates of 0.3%.
  • Cautious optimism that some sort of stimulus could be passed before the end of the year encouraged investors.
  • According to Politico , Congress was on the brink of a $900 billion stimulus deal that would include a new round of direct payments to consumers. However, that package would exclude the more contentious areas of liability shields for businesses and state and local aid.
  • We have reached the deadliest weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic. More than 300,000 total COVID-19 related deaths have now been confirmed in the U.S., with over 16 million confirmed cases. Additionally, US officials reported 3,400 new COVID-19 deaths – a daily record.
  • After an FDA panel officially endorsed Moderna (MRNA) – following a review which confirmed safety and efficacy earlier in the week – the big day is finally here. On Thursday (Dec. 17), the FDA will officially vote on Moderna’s vaccine. This will strongly complement the mass deployment of Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech’s (BNTX) vaccine.
  • The Federal Reserve ’s announcement on monetary policy was largely as dovish as expected. The Fed vowed to continue its asset purchase program at the current rate, “until substantial further progress has been made toward the committee’s maximum employment and price stability goals.”
  • Microsoft (MSFT) and Salesforce (CRM) led the Dow with gains of 2.4% and 1.6%, respectively, while Walgreens (WBA) was the laggard and declined 2.15%.
  • Moderna (MRNA), despite its big week ahead, dropped 6.9%.

While there is some short-term uncertainty and mixed sentiment, there is some general consensus: While the short-term may see some pain and/or mixed sentiment, it may be worth it for the medium-term and long-term optimism.

The overwhelming majority of market strategists are bullish on equities for 2021- despite near-term risks. Outside of the pandemic raging to out of control levels, another near-term risk that has been largely overlooked is the Senate runoff election in Georgia. Investors have largely already priced in a divided government – however, if Republicans end up losing both seats in Georgia, this could potentially upend everything.

According to Jimmy Lee, CEO of the Wealth Consulting Group ,

“I think that we can get a little bit of consolidation before year-end just due to normal selling at the year-end for rebalancing or tax loss harvesting. Also, depending on where the pulse is for the Senate race in Georgia, investors might want to get ahead of that if they think that capital gains taxes may go up in the future…So that could cause some additional selling before year-end and we could get a little bit of a pullback. But I am very bullish on equities at this point. And I do think we may get a little bit more of a rotation into the economy-opening sectors.”

Meanwhile, progress on the stimulus package appears to be more optimistic than many expected in the near-term.

“The odds of a fiscal deal before year’s end have been improving,” Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in a note Tuesday (Dec. 15). “While we had expected a smaller package to pass now with a larger package waiting until early 2021, it appears increasingly likely that most of this could pass this week.”

While markets for the rest of 2020 (and perhaps early 2021), will wrestle with the negative reality on the ground and optimism for an economic rebound, the general consensus appears to be looking past the short-term painful realities, and focusing more on the longer-term – a world where COVID-19 is expected to be a thing of the past and we are back to normal.

In the short-term, there will be some optimistic and pessimistic days. On other days, such as Wednesday (Dec. 16) (and in my opinion this will be most trading days), markets will trade largely mixed, sideways, and reflect uncertainty. Therefore, it is truly hard to say with conviction what will happen with markets in the next 1-3 months. However, if a stimulus deal passes within the next week, it could mean very good things for short-term market gains.

In the mid-term and long-term, there is certainly a light at the end of the tunnel. Once this pandemic is finally brought under control and vaccines are mass deployed to the general public, volatility will stabilize, and optimism and relief will permeate the markets. Stocks especially dependent on a rapid recovery and reopening such as small-caps should thrive.

Due to this tug of war between sentiments, it is truly hard to say with any degree of certainty whether another crash or bear market will come.

Therefore, to sum it up:

While there is long-term optimism, there is short-term pessimism. A short-term correction is very possible. But it is hard to say with conviction that a big correction will happen.

Nasdaq Hits Another Record Close – Too Good to Be True?

Is the Nasdaq’s performance since its sharp sell-off last Wednesday (Dec. 9) too good to be true? Truthfully, I don’t know. But it’s very possible – especially if shut down measurements become harsher and stricter and investors return to the “stay-at-home” trade that led markets from April through the end of October.

Additionally, I still have many concerns about tech valuations and their astoundingly inflated levels. Last week’s IPOs of DoorDash (DASH) and AirBnB (ABNB) reflect this and invoke traumatic memories of the dotcom bubble era. I believe that more pullbacks along the lines of last Wednesday (Dec. 9) could inevitably come in the short-term. Frankly, it would make me feel far more confident about initiating tech positions as well for the long-term.

Pay close attention to the RSI. While an overbought RSI does not automatically mean a trend reversal, I called keeping a very close eye on this for the Nasdaq. Last Wednesday’s (Dec. 9th) Nasdaq pullback after it exceeded a 70 RSI reflects that.

The Nasdaq has sharply rallied in the week since then. But its RSI is nearly 69. Monitor this . If the index goes on another bull-run and hits more record closes, it could surely exceed an RSI of 70 by the end of market close on Thursday (Dec. 17). I did not make a conviction call last week but I will now- if the RSI exceeds 70 this time, take profits- but don’t fully exit .

One thing I do like is how stable the volume has been this week and since the sharp sell-off last week. Stable volume is a good thing, especially if one is concerned about volatility. Low volume, especially a declining trend, means that there are fewer shares trading. Lower volume also means less liquidity across the index, and an increase in stock price volatility.

On pessimistic days, having NASDAQ exposure is crucial because of all the “stay-at-home” trade. However, positive vaccine-related news always induces the risk of downward pressure on tech names – both on and off the NASDAQ. What concerns me most are sharp sell-offs due to overheating and mania. Don’t ever let anyone tell you “this time is different” if fears of the dot-com bubble are discussed. History repeats itself, especially in markets.

It is very hard to say with conviction to sell your tech shares though. However, as I said before – if the RSI exceeds 70 again – consider selling some shares and taking profits. For now, however, the NASDAQ stays a HOLD .

For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.

Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter – it’s absolutely free and if you don’t like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you’ll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Thank you.

Matthew Levy, CFA
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

* * * * *

All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

Salesforce.com Earnings Beat Wall Street Estimates But Slack Acquisition Steals Thunder

Salesforce.com Inc, an American cloud-based software company, reported better-than-expected profit in the third quarter of the fiscal year 2021 with revenue increasing 20% year-over-year to $5.42 billion, but shares plunged over 4% in extended trading on news of Slack acquisition.

The company reported GAAP net income of $1.08 billion, or $1.15 per share, compared with a loss of $109 million, or 12 cents per share a year ago. Adjusted earnings came to $1.74 a share. That higher than the market consensus for earnings of 75 cents per share and revenue of $5.25 billion.

“Wide-moat Salesforce reported strong results, including a meaningful upside to both revenue and non-GAAP EPS, while guidance for the fourth quarter was mixed. Stealing the thunder from fine results was the formal announcement that the company is acquiring Slack, and this dominated the earnings call. We have mixed feelings on the Slack acquisition,” said Dan Romanoff, equity analyst at Morningstar.

“We are maintaining our fair value estimate of $253 for Salesforce as good organic results are offset by the seemingly modest deleterious impact on shareholder value arising from the Slack acquisition. With the recent pullback, we think Salesforce shares are looking increasingly attractive,” Romanoff added.

Salesforce’s shares closed 1.81% lower at $241.35; traded over 4% lower at $231.50 in extended trading on Tuesday. However, the stock is up about 50% so far this year.

Salesforce Stock Price Forecast

Eighteen equity analysts forecast the average price in 12 months at $291.53 with a high forecast of $325.00 and a low forecast of $234.00. The average price target represents a 20.79% increase from the last price of $241.35. From those 18 analysts, 15 rated “Buy”, three rated “Hold” and none rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley gave the base target price of $275 with a high of $332 under a bull-case scenario and $187 under the worst-case scenario. The firm currently has an “Equal-weight” rating on the enterprise cloud computing solutions leader’s stock. Raymond James raised their target price to $280 from $255.

Several other analysts have also upgraded their stock outlook. Salesforce.com has been given a $275 price target by The Goldman Sachs Group. The brokerage currently has a “buy” rating on the CRM provider’s stock. Bernstein restated a “neutral” rating and set a $234 price target. Barclays boosted their price target to $315 from $264 and gave the stock an “overweight” rating.

Analyst Comments

“While Salesforce.com (CRM) remains one of our best secularly positioned names given enterprise IT spend prioritized towards digital transformation, we see current valuation reflective of long-term share gains within an estimated $175 billion TAM over the next 4 years and >$200 billion longer-term,” said Keith Weiss, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“We see total revenue nearly doubling by FY24, but at CRM’s current scale and market cap, an increasing focus on FCF and earnings is likely necessary for further price appreciation. Our Equal-weight view on CRM shares is based on our $275 PT, which is based on 30X our CY25e FCF per share of $12.07, discounted back at 8.5%,” Weiss added.

Upside and Downside Risks

Risks to Upside: Slack Connect becomes a powerful contributor to net new customer additions. Net dollar retention rate stabilizes as new COVID-19 customers begin to meaningfully expand – highlighted by Morgan Stanley.

Risks to Downside: Competition from Microsoft, which offers a similar product for free to Office 365 users; Difficulty expanding outside of the IT department; Organizations defer to a bundled alternative (MSFT Teams, Google Workspace) in a weaker macro.

Check out FX Empire’s earnings calendar