USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Test Of Support At 1.2200

USD/CAD Video 06.05.21.

U.S. Dollar Is Under Strong Pressure Against Canadian Dollar

USD/CAD is currently trying to settle below the support at 1.2200 while the U.S. dollar is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index is currently testing the support at the 91 level. If the U.S. Dollar Index declines below this level, it will move towards the support at 90.70 which will be bearish for USD/CAD.

Today, U.S. reported that Initial Jobless Claims decreased from 590,000 (revised from 553,000) to 498,000 while Continuing Jobless Claims increased from 3.65 million (revised from 3.66 million) to 3.69 million.

Tomorrow, foreign exchange market traders will have a chance to take a look at additional employment data from U.S. and Canada. In the U.S., Non Farm Payrolls report is expected to show that U.S. economy added 978,000 jobs in April. Unemployment Rate report is projected to indicate that Unemployment Rate declined from 6% to 5.8%.

In Canada, Employment Change report is expected to show that Canadian economy lost 175,000 jobs in April. Unemployment Rate is expected to increase from 7.5% to 7.8%.

Technical Analysis

usd cad may 6 2021

USD to CAD managed to settle below the support at 1.2250 and gained strong downside momentum. Currently, USD to CAD is testing the next support level which is located at 1.2200. RSI moved into the oversold territory, but USD to CAD may gain additional downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

If USD to CAD settles below the support at 1.2200, it will move towards the next support level at 1.2170. A successful test of the support at 1.2170 will open the way to the test of the support at 1.2130.

On the upside, USD to CAD needs to stay above 1.2200 to have a chance to develop upside momentum in the near term. The next resistance level for USD to CAD is located at 1.2250.

If USD to CAD gets above this level, it will move towards the resistance at 1.2280. A move above this level will open the way to the test of the resistance at 1.2310.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Market Continues Sideways Behavior

The S&P 500 initially tried to rally during the course of the trading session on Thursday but then gave back the gains to start falling again. Quite frankly, there are lot of mixed messages out there when it comes to the economy in the stock market went forward, but at the end of the day we are still very much in an uptrend and it is worth paying attention to. The 4100 level underneath should offer support, as it has over the last couple weeks. That being said, there is even more support underneath at the 50 day EMA and of course the 4000 level. With that being said, I think that if we get some type of selling pressure, then we will get long again based upon some type of bounce.

S&P 500 Video 07.05.21

To the upside, I see the 4200 level as a major barrier that needs to be overcome with some type of catalyst. We are in the midst of earnings season and it has gone fairly well but quite frankly the market had already priced all that in. Because of this, I think that we will continue to see a “buy on the dips” type of mentality, as we continue to find plenty of narratives out there to push this market higher. Central banks around the world will continue to flood the markets with liquidity, thereby having people push money into stock markets yet again. I see no scenario in which a willing to start shorting this market anytime soon.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Forecast – Silver Markets Continue Bullish Pressure

Silver markets initially drifted a little bit lower during the trading session on Thursday but then broke higher to reach towards the $27.35 level. The market certainly looks as if it is on its way to the $28 level, but it is obvious that the market has a lot of noise involved in it. After all, the silver markets do tend to be very choppy to say the least, so it does make quite a bit of sense that we would continue to see volatility. With that being the case, the market is likely to continue seeing short-term pullbacks as potential buying opportunities and of value.

SILVER Video 07.05.21

Underneath, we have the 50 day EMA sitting at the $26 level, and that could of course attract a lot of support and buyers get involved. If we break down below the $26 level, it could open up a move down to the 200 day EMA underneath. We are in an uptrend, there is nothing on this chart that tells us that we should be looking for buying opportunities only, and a break above the $28 level would open up the possibility of a move to the $30 level. All things been equal, I do think that we get there and perhaps even higher as we continue to play the “reflation trade.” Silver has a major industrial component built into it, so it certainly makes a bit of sense that we would be looking at a “buy on the dips” type of scenario. I have no interest whatsoever in shorting this market, as we have such bullish pressure and of course a huge fundamental driver of price.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Continue to Pressure Upside

WTI Crude Oil

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has pulled back a bit during the trading session on Thursday, as we sit right at the $65 level. The $65 level of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that would attract a certain amount of attention, but part of what has caused the market pull back a bit is that the demand for gasoline in the United States has fallen for the second week in a row. That being said, the ascending triangle that formed previously does suggest that we have more upward pressure going on than down, as we have been in an uptrend anyway. If we do pull back from here it is likely that we would see plenty of support at both the 50 day EMA and the uptrend line that has been part of that ascending triangle.

Crude Oil Video 07.05.21

Brent

Brent markets also look very much the same as you would expect, after forming the same kind of ascending triangle. The $70 level above does offer a certain amount of psychological resistance, so if we can break above there then it is likely that the market would continue to go much higher. A lot of this comes down to the “reopening trade” that a lot of people pay close attention to, so therefore it does make a certain amount of sense that value hunters will be looking to get involved. Once we can clear the $70 level on a daily close, it is very likely that we go much higher, perhaps making a move towards the $72.50 level initially, followed by a move to the $75 level. I have no interest in shorting the market anytime soon.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Sit Sideways

Natural gas markets have gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Thursday as we continue to look at the $3.00 level as massive resistance. That is an area that has been difficult for some time, and it should continue to be. Quite frankly, I think this is a market that will see a lot of choppy volatility, but it looks as if we are running out of momentum. The market breaking above the $3.00 level still faces a lot of noise based upon historical behavior, and of course psychological resistance.

NATGAS Video 07.05.21

Given enough time, I fully anticipate that this market will start to fall, perhaps trying to drop down to the $2.75 level initially, followed by the gap underneath it has yet to be filled. After all, we are going to be getting warmer temperatures in the northern hemisphere soon, despite the fact that it has been cooler than usual. With that being said, there will be less demand for natural gas, in a market that is already oversupplied. There has been an uptick in foreign demand for liquefied natural gas, but at this point in time it will be enough to change the market dynamics.

Commodities in general have been getting a bid, so natural gas has become overvalued. I think eventually the fundamentals come back into play and we fall apart. With this, I like the idea of selling at the first sign of a breakdown, because we have such a significant and obvious round figure just above the use as a barrier to determine which direction, we are going in. All things been equal, the spring temperatures will start to overtake the market.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Break 200 Day EMA

Gold markets have broken higher during the course of the trading session on Thursday as we have cleared the 200 day EMA and the $1800 level. At this point, the market is likely to continue going higher, perhaps reaching towards the $1850 level, and then after that the $1950 level. This of course is a market that has recently formed a bit of a “double bottom”, and that suggests that it has much further to go. It is interesting, because gold has disappeared from the inflation argument until recently, but now it appears that the traders finally starting to kick in.

Gold Price Predictions Video 07.05.21

To the downside, I see the 50 day EMA as offering support, and most certainly the $1750 level will as well. It is not until we break down below there that I would be concerned, but after the action that we have seen during the day on Thursday, it is very likely that the buyers will continue to push to the upside. The size of the candlestick is somewhat impressive, and therefore it looks like there is serious conviction in this market. If the US dollar continues to fall, that should continue to lift gold in general, and therefore I think that we have a “buy on the dips” type of mentality from short-term traders. Ultimately, this will be a very noisy move to the upside, but it certainly looks as if we have made major changes in attitude during the day, as we have been building up pressure for some time. I have no interest in shorting this market until we close below the $1750 level, something that does not look as likely now.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Why Shares Of Moderna Are Down By 5% Today?

Moderna Video 06.05.21.

Moderna Stock Moves Lower As Q1 Revenue Misses Estimates

Shares of Moderna found themselves under pressure after the company released its first-quarter results.

Moderna reported revenue of $1.94 billion and earnings of $2.84 per share, beating analyst estimates on earnings and missing them on revenue. It looks that the market was not ready to tolerate the revenue miss, and it weighed heavily on Moderna stock.

The bar was set high for the company whose shares were up by more than 60% year-to-date before the release of the quarterly report. In addition, shares of  vaccine makers found themselves under pressure after U.S. signaled that it would support a waiver for vaccine IP rights at the WTO.

EU has already stated that it was ready to discuss waving COVID-19 vaccines patents, which is a worrisome development for investors. At the same time, it remains to be seen whether any decisions will be made in the near term.

What’s Next For Moderna?

The sell-off in Moderna shares was triggered by IP waiver-related fears and a revenue miss. IP waiver-related fears probably served as the main catalyst for the current sell-off as other vaccine makers like BioNTech and Pfizer also found themselves under pressure.

Currently, analysts expect that Moderna will report earnings of $23.27 per share in 2021 and $16.58 per share in 2022 so the stock is trading at about 9 forward P/E for 2022 which is very cheap in today’s market environment.

However, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding future profits, and recent discussions about waiving IP rights add another layer of uncertainty. At the same time, it looks increasingly likely that at least some part of the vaccine revenue will be recurring as people may need regular shots to protect themselves against COVID-19.

In this light, Moderna shares may soon attract speculative traders and investors who will want to use the current pullback as an opportunity to buy the stock at lower levels.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Mixed Gasoline Inventory Numbers Fueling Trader Indecision

U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures are edging lower on Thursday as bullish traders take a breather following the release of mixed inventories reports on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Today’s move doesn’t suggest topping action, but rather the potential shifting in sentiment from aggressive traders chasing prices higher to more conservative traders looking for a pullback into a value area.

At 13:56 GMT, June WTI crude oil futures are trading $65.09, down $0.54 or -0.82% and July Brent crude oil is at $68.51, down $0.45 or -0.65%.

Earlier in the week, traders expressed concerns over the pandemic in India and its potential impact on global demand, however, since then these worries have been offset by optimism fueled by the lifting of lockdowns in the United States and parts of Europe.

American Petroleum Institute Weekly Inventories Report

The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported late Tuesday that U.S. crude supplies fell by 7.7 million barrels for the week ended April 30. Ahead of the report, traders were pricing in at 3.9 million barrel draw.

The API also reported that gasoline stockpiles fell by 5.3 million barrels versus pre-report estimates of a 500,000 barrel drawdown.

Meanwhile, distillate inventories declined by nearly 3.5 million barrels. Traders were looking for a 1.6 million barrel drawdown.

Energy Information Administration Weekly Inventories Report

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude inventories fell by 8 million barrels in the week to April 30 to 485.1 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.3 million-barrel drop.

U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 737,000 barrels in the week to 235.8 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 652,000-barrel drop.

Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 2.9 million barrels in the week to 136.2 million barrels, versus expectations for a 1.1 million-barrel drop, the EIA data showed.

Daily Forecast

The mixed inventories reports may have given buyers a reason to pause. Both the API and EIA reports drawdowns in crude oil and distillate inventories, but the gasoline inventories data yielded mixed results. The API reported a large drawdown, but the EIA report showed an unexpected rise in inventories.

As we approach summer driving season in the U.S., traders will shift their focus to the gasoline numbers. It’s still a little early in the season so the gasoline data wasn’t that big of a deal. However, between May 31 and September 5, bullish traders will be expecting to see stronger demand for gasoline.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Daily Forecast – Resistance At $27.50 In Sight

Silver Video 06.05.21.

Weak Dollar Provides Support To Silver

Silver gained upside momentum and managed to get above the resistance at $27.00 while the U.S. dollar remained under pressure against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index failed to settle above the resistance at the 20 EMA at 91.30 and is testing the support at the 91 level. In case the U.S. Dollar Index declines below this level, it will move towards the support at 90.70 which will be bullish for silver and gold price today. Weaker dollar is bullish for precious metals as it makes them cheaper for buyers who have other currencies.

Gold is currently testing the resistance at the $1800 level. In case gold manages to settle above this level, it will head towards the resistance at $1820 which will be bullish for silver.

Gold/silver ratio managed to get below the 67 level and is trying to settle below 66.50. If gold/silver ratio declines below this level, it will move towards the 66 level which will be bullish for silver.

Technical Analysis

silver may 6 2021

Silver managed to get above the resistance at $27.00 and is trying to gain additional upside momentum. If silver settles above this level, it will move towards the resistance at $27.50. RSI remains in the moderate territory, and there is plenty of room to gain additional upside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

A successful test of the resistance at $27.50 will push silver towards the next resistance level at $27.75. If silver gets above the resistance at $27.75, it will head towards the next resistance which is located at $28.30.

On the support side, a move below the $27 level will push silver towards the support at $26.65. In case silver declines below this level, it will head towards the support at $26.30.

A successful test of the support at $26.30 will push silver towards the support which is located at the 20 EMA at $26.15. In case silver manages to settle below this level, it will head towards the next support at the 50 EMA at $25.95.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

American Indices Moving in Opposite Directions

American Indices are currently moving in opposite directions. The tech-heavy NASDAQ index is going down, aiming for the long-term up trendline while the old-school Dow Jones flirts with all-time highs after the price escaped from the pennant formation.

The German Dax is trading inside a flag formation, which is promoting a long-term breakout to the upside.

Gold is aiming higher after a successful bounce from the 1760 USD/oz support.

The USDCAD broke the lower line of the channel down formation, which should be considered an extreme weakness.

The AUDCHF tested the lower line of the symmetric triangle pattern. A breakout to the downside is very probable.

The ZARJPY shot higher after a false bearish breakout from the Head and Shoulders formation.

The EURPLN is aiming higher after a very handsome bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart.

The USDHUF dropped like a rock after the price created a shooting star on the daily chart, which bounced from a combination of dynamic and horizontal resistances.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

USD/JPY Price Forecast – US Dollar Rallies Heading Towards Jobs Figure

The US dollar initially pulled back slightly during the course of the trading session on Thursday but then turned around to show signs of strength as we reached towards the ¥109.50 level yet again. At this point, it looks as if we are trying to go looking towards the ¥110 level. Keep in mind that Friday is the Non-Farm Payroll announcement, and that of course is going to continue to be influential as to where we go. Ultimately, this is a bullish run and we recently bounced from the 50 day EMA as well as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level that of course is a very positive sign.

USD/JPY Video 07.05.21

If we can break above the ¥110 level, then it is likely that we go looking towards the ¥111 level, which was the recent high. If we can break there, then we have a much longer term run higher. On the other hand, we could very well go back and forth in this general vicinity and simply grind. All things been equal, I have no interest in shorting this market until we break down below those hammers that caused the bounce in the first place. In general, this is a market that is very strong, but certainly will be waiting to see what the jobs number has to say. I would anticipate quite a bit of volatility during the trading session on Friday, as the market will probably have to readjust its expectations depending on whatever number comes out. There are wide and varied expectations for the figure coming out, so I anticipate more chaos than anything else.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/USD Price Forecast – British Pound Has Noisy Day as MPC Announces Tapering

The British pound has gone back and forth during the trading session on Thursday as the Monetary Policy Committee has come and gone, suggesting that tapering is coming in the bond market. That of course is bullish for the British pound, but at the same time we have been locked in a lot of support and resistance in this general vicinity.

GBP/USD Video 07.05.21

When you look at the 50 day EMA, has offered a bit of support as of late, so that is something worth paying attention to. Furthermore, we have the double bottom underneath there that continues to support the market as well. It is not until we break down below there that I think we could start to see the first “cracks in the ice” of the uptrend but if you are a seller, you then need to worry about the 1.35 level underneath which is attracting the 200 day EMA. Underneath there, then obviously the trend is done.

To the upside, the 1.40 level continues to be like a “brick wall for the market” and breaking above there on a daily close would be a massively bullish sign. In the short term, I think we simply go back and forth in the fact that we have the jobs number coming out on Friday certainly makes quite a bit of sense. Ultimately, this is a market that is been very volatile for the session, but it seems to have been little changed. Interesting to see this reaction, but at the end of the day I think people almost immediately turn their attention on the employment situation in America.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Very Noisy

The British pound has initially pulled back a bit during the course of the trading session on Thursday but turned around to show signs of strength again as the Bank of England is suggesting that they will be tapering bond purchases, which is a form of monetary policy tightening. This follows the Bank of Canada, as we are starting to see central banks try to get ahead of the reopening trade.

GBP/JPY Video 07.05.21

The Japanese yen continues to get beaten up, and that of course will not be any different here. The ¥150 level underneath is rather significantly supported, not only due to the fact that we have seen a bit of a bounce from there, but we have also seen the 50 day EMA coming into the picture. With that being the case, I think it is only a matter of time before buyers will come back into this market if we reach down towards that area.

On the other hand, it looks much more likely that we are going to go looking towards the ¥153.50 level, and then possibly reaching towards the ¥155 level. This is a market that has been in a very bullish move over the last several months, and now we are simply grinding back and forth in order to try and pick up more momentum while working off froth. Eventually, I anticipate that the buyers will continue to look it dips as value in a market that has been obviously one way for quite some time. I anticipate that the Friday market might be a little bit quiet ahead of the jobs number but if we get a good number out of the United States, we may get more “risk on behavior”, sending this pair higher.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Price Forecast -Euro Bounces From Major Figure

The Euro has bounced from the 1.20 level to show signs of strength again during the Thursday session. This front run the jobs number coming out of America so it will be interesting to see how this plays out. I do think that there is a little bit of resistance just above that could cause some issues, but at the end of the day we are in an uptrend and you could even make a little bit of an argument for a bullish flag or on shorter time frames a falling wedge.

EUR/USD Video 07.05.21

It is obvious that the 1.20 level would catch a lot of attention, and of course the 50 day EMA sitting there makes quite a bit of sense as far as support goes as well. With all of that in mind I think that what we are looking at is the possibility of a move back towards the highs that we made a couple of weeks ago. Ultimately, I think that this remains a short-term “buy on the dip” type of market, but if we were to break down below the 50 day EMA, perhaps after the jobs figure, then we will more than likely go looking towards the 200 day EMA underneath.

Remember, this pair does tend to be very choppy and sideways most of the time so although it is grinding higher, you will probably find more value buying the Euro against other currencies. In the short term though, the US dollar is on its back foot and as long as that continues to be the case in general, that will lift this pair and perhaps send it towards the 1.23 handle.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD Price Forecast – Continues to Build Up Pressure to the Upside

The Australian dollar initially pulled back during the course of the trading session on Thursday to reach down towards the 50 day EMA. Ultimately, it looks as if the market is trying to build up enough momentum to finally break above the 0.78 handle, which of course is the massive resistance barrier that the market has been fighting for some time. All things been equal, the market breaking above there could open up the possibility of a move to the 0.80 level given enough time. That of course is an area that is important from a longer-term standpoint, as you can see it clearly as resistance on the monthly chart.

AUD/USD Video 07.05.21

Ultimately, if we can break above that 0.80 region of resistance, this market will go much higher. It would then become a “buy-and-hold” situation, but overnight China decided that they were going to end all discussions involving trade with the Australians, so there was a little bit of a selloff that lasted just a short amount of time. Ultimately, the commodity boom should continue to lift the Australian dollar over the longer term, but obviously we have a lot of noise to deal with. The last couple of months have been very difficult, and it appears that we have more of the same ahead of us.

That being said, if we were to turn around and break below the 0.76 level it is likely that we could go looking towards the 0.75 level. If we break down below that handle, then I believe that the Australian dollar probably needs to “reset” closer to the 0.70 level which of course is an area that will attract a lot of attention due to the psychological importance of it.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Underpinned by Dovish Fed Member Comments, Capped by Strong Data

Gold futures are trading higher on Thursday, but pulling back from its high after the release of a better-than-expected government report. Earlier in the session, gold prices rose as the U.S. Dollar retreated from two-week highs and U.S. Treasury yields fell, with traders focusing on economic data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s strategy on monetary support going forward.

At 13:08 GMT, June Comex gold futures are trading $1792.00, up $7.70 or +0.43%.

Thin market conditions ahead of Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report have contributed to this week’s volatile price action. Dovish comments from Federal Reserve members have helped underpin prices, while stronger-than-expected economic data has helped put a lid on gains.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, a noted dove, also contributed to the volatility with two-sided comments.

Fed’s Rosengren Says It Is Premature to Talk About Tapering

Helping to support gold prices on Thursday are comments from Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren.

On Wednesday, Rosengren said inflation will be temporarily distorted this spring as the U.S. economy works through imbalances caused by the pandemic but the pressures should be short-lived and should not lead to a pullback in monetary policy.

“Despite the ebbs and flows of the data, inflation is expected to remain close to 2 percent over the forecast horizon,” Rosengren said during a virtual event organized by Boston College. “This does seem to me to be the most likely outcome, which should allow monetary policymakers to be patient in removing accommodation.”

For now, Rosengren said “significant slack remains in the economy” and made it clear it is too soon to start talking about reducing the Fed’s asset purchases.

“We need to have a substantial improvement for us to begin tapering. It is quite possible that we’ll see those conditions as we get to the latter half of the year,” Rosengren said. “But right now what we have is one really strong employment report, one quarterly strong GDP report. And so I think it’s premature right now to focus on the tapering.”

Daily Outlook

After an earlier surge, gold prices appear to be consolidating as investors position themselves ahead of Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. This report could set the tone of the market for the next month.

On Wednesday, ADP reported strong private sector numbers. On Thursday, initial claims for unemployment benefits fell sharply last week to 498,000, in another sign the labor market is getting closer to pre-pandemic levels.

There is nothing bullish per se in the news, but investors appear unwilling to give up until there is definitive proof that the Fed is getting ready to begin tapering its bond purchases.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for May 6, 2021

The Euro is trading higher against the U.S. Dollar as global risk appetite improved while traders focused on U.S. economic data that may provide clues on when the U.S. Federal Reserve might dial back monetary stimulus. A dip in U.S. Treasury yields also weighed on demand for the U.S. Dollar.

At 12:23 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.2052, up 0.0047 or +0.39%.

In economic news, Euro Zone retail sales rose by more than expected in March, data showed on Thursday, pointing to pent-up consumer demand as pandemic lockdowns ease.

The European Union’s statistics office Eurostat said on Thursday that retail sales in the 19 countries sharing the Euro jumped 2.7% month-on-month in March for a 12.0% year-on-year surge.

Daily EUR/USD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1986 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 1.2150 will change the main trend to up.

The short-term range is 1.2243 to 1.1704. The EUR/USD is currently trading on the strong side of its retracement zone at 1.2038 to 1.1974. This is giving it a slight upside bias. This zone is also new support.

The main range is 1.1603 to 1.2349. Its retracement zone at 1.1976 to 1.1888 is additional support.

The short-term and main retracement zones combine to form a support cluster at 1.1976 to 1.1974.

Another short-term range is 1.1704 to 1.2150. Its 50% level at 1.1927 is another potential support area. This level forms inside the main retracement zone.

The minor range is 1.2150 to 1.1986. Its 50% level at 1.2068 is the first upside target. Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on a test of this level. They are going to try to form a potentially bearish secondary lower top.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The early price action suggests the direction of the EUR/USD on Wednesday will be determined by trader reaction to 1.2038 and 1.2068.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.2068 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the minor bottom at 1.1986, followed by 1.1976.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.2068 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside with 1.2150 the next likely upside target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – ‘Bearish Surprise’ Fears Ahead of Weekly EIA Storage Report

Natural gas futures are trading nearly flat shortly before the New York opening and well ahead of the release of the weekly government storage report at 14:30 GMT. After reaching its highest level since February 22 on Tuesday, gains have been capped by expectations from a more substantial build in underground inventories.

At 11:31 GMT, June natural gas futures are trading $2.945, up $0.007 or +0.24%.

Energy Information Administration Weekly Storage Report

Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) is reporting that traders are expecting today’s EIA report to show a storage injection for the week ended April 30 that could be more than four times greater than the prior week.

NGI also reported that a Bloomberg survey Wednesday showed a median estimate for a 66 Bcf injection, with predictions ranging from 49 Bcf to 76 Bcf. Estimates generated by a Reuters poll spanned increases of 49 Bcf to 76 Bcf, with a median of 65 Bcf. The Wall Street Journal’s weekly survey showed estimates ranging from increase of 52 Bcf to 70 Bcf, with an average of 62 Bcf.

NGI’s model predicted a 76 Bcf build.

Median estimates for the April 30 week, while much higher, still compare favorably to recent history. The EIA recorded a 103 Bcf build in the comparable week of 2020, while the five-year average injection is 81 Bcf, according to NGI.

If you recall, last week’s EIA report showed a 15 Bcf injection for the week ended April 23. That was well below normal for this time of year, leaving U.S. inventories at 1,898 Bcf – 302 Bcf lower than a year earlier and 40 Bcf below the five-year average.

After initially falling on the news last Thursday, prices rose on Monday in a delayed reaction to the news.

Short-Term Weather Outlook

According to NatGasWeather for the week-ending May 6 to May 12, “Weather systems and associated cool shots with showers and thunderstorms will continue across the Midwest and Northeast through next week with highs of 50s and 60s and lows of 30s and 40s. Cooling has also arrived into the South/Southeast with highs of 70s to low 80s for lighter demand, although warming back into the 80s and 90s from Texas to the Southeast late this weekend. The West will experience showers and cooling over the Northwest in the coming days with highs of 50s and 60s but very warm over the Southwest with highs of 80s to 90s. Overall, moderate the rest of the week.”

Daily June Natural Gas

Daily Forecast

Traders are taking no chances ahead of this week’s EIA report, essentially moving to the sidelines ahead of the numbers.

A neutral report would actually compare favorably to historic norms, but the move to the sidelines suggests traders are erring on the side of caution because of the possibility of a bearish surprise.

A bullish report could trigger a retest of this week’s high at $3.001, setting up the possibility of a breakout rally. A bearish report could drive prices back toward the upper level of a support zone at $2.868.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Daily Gold News: Thursday, May 6 – Gold Bouncing Back and Forth

The gold futures contract gained 0.47% on Wednesday, as it extended its short-term consolidation. In early April the market has bounced from the support level marked by March 8 local low of $1,663.30. The yellow metal’s price was the lowest since last year’s June. Today gold is trading closer to the recent local highs, as we can see on the daily chart (the chart includes today’s intraday data):

Gold is 0.3% higher this morning, as it is trading closer to $1,800 price level. What about the other precious metals? Silver is 1.0% higher, platinum is 0.8% higher and palladium is 0.8% lower today. So precious metals are higher this morning.

Yesterday’s ADP Non-Farm Employment Change release has been worse than expected at +742,000. The ISM Services PMI has also been worse than expected at 62.7. Today we will get the Unemployment Claims release, among others.

The markets will be waiting for tomorrow’s monthly jobs data release.

Where would the price of gold go following Friday’s NFP release? We’ve compiled the data since September of 2018, a 32-month-long period of time that contains of thirty two NFP releases. The first chart shows price paths 5 days before and 10 days after the NFP release. The last three cases are marked with dashed lines. Gold gained 1.92% in April and it gained 2.54% in March.

The following chart shows the average gold price path before and after the NFP releases for the past 32 months. The market was usually advancing ahead of the release day and closing 0.49% higher on the 10th day after the NFP release.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days:

Thursday, May 6

  • 7:30 a.m. U.S. – Challenger Job Cuts y/y
  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Unemployment Claims, Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity q/q, Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q
  • 1:00 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Bostic Speech

Friday, May 7

  • 6:00 a.m. Eurozone – ECB President Lagarde Speech
  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings m/m
  • 8:30 a.m. Canada – Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
  • 10:00 U.S. – Final Wholesale Inventories m/m
  • 10:00 a.m. Canada – Ivey PMI

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Selection Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

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Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

EUR/USD Analysis Today Including Key Price and Chart Patterns

The EUR/USD is building a bullish bounce at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, the 1.20 support zone, and the 144 and 233 ema area as expected in our EUR/USD video analysis.

This article will analyse the main targets for this bullish bounce. We will also take a look when to expect the next bearish price swing.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

EUR/USD 6.5.2021 4 hour chart

The EUR/USD seems to have completed a bearish wave A (grey) at the support zone. This occurred after price action completed 5 waves up (grey) within wave A (pink):

  1. The wave A (grey) is probably part of a larger bearish ABC zigzag (grey).
  2. The ABC (grey) pattern is expected to complete a wave B (pink).
  3. The main target for the wave B (grey) is around the Wizz level 5 at 1.21. Here a bearish bounce is expected (orange arrows).
  4. The main target for the wave C (grey) of wave B (pink) is at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.1875 (blue box). Here a bullish bounce is expected (blue arrow).
  5. Both ABC zigzag patterns (grey and pink) are invalid if price action breaks the top too soon or the bottom.

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the uptrend finished at the end of last week when price action broke below the 144 ema. Prior to the break, the 144 ema acted as a strong support zone. With the bearish breakout, a bearish retracement sent price action lower.

EUR/USD 1 hour chart 6.5.2021

On the next 1 hour chart, we focus on the recent price swing and Elliott Wave patterns:

  1. A bearish 5 wave (blue) has been completed in the 5 wave pattern (orange).
  2. A falling wedge reversal chart pattern confirmed the end of the bearish price swing.
  3. Also the divergence pattern (purple) indicated exhaustion for the bears.
  4. A bullish breakout above the resistance trend line (dotted orange) and the 21 ema zone confirmed a bullish price swing.
  5. Now the main target seems to be the 144 ema resistance If a bull flag chart pattern emerges, then a new higher high could complete a 5 wave up (blue) within wave A (orange).
  6. A bearish ABC could send price back down again to the support zone (blue box).
  7. An inverted head and shoulders pattern could end the wave B (orange) and start the wave C (orange).
  8. A break below the Wizz 5 level invalidates (red circle) the currently expected bullish ABC pattern.

EUR/USD 6.5.2021 1 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.