‘Follow the Money’: Major Players Betting on Vaccinations to Keep Global Economy Afloat

The coronavirus is in the news again, not last year’s pandemic fueling COVID-19 version, but the fast-spreading Delta variant. While dominating the mainstream news in the United States (See CNN and FoxNews), and globally on business website such as CNBC, Reuters and Bloomberg, to name a few, we’re not really seeing a major impact on the financial markets.

This is interesting to note because the mainstream story is centered on rising infection numbers, the slow pace of vaccinations and what is likely to happen if countries don’t start clamping down on the spread of the virus. In other words, people’s health. Some experts are even calling it a “life or death” situation.

In the financial markets, obviously we’re not seeing the same reaction as we did in 2020 with stocks dropping 20% in a matter of weeks and crude oil testing prices below $20 a barrel. Instead we’re seeing a relative calm.

Is this telling us to “follow the money?” Is this telling us that since the situation is not as bad as last year, there is no need to panic? Are the financial markets indicating there is not enough information yet to understand the impact of this new outbreak? Do we wait for the bad economic numbers or do we anticipate them?

The answer is all of the above.

Of course, I don’t recommend putting your finances ahead of your health. I don’t think anyone is doing that. Traders are making their decisions on what they know at this time. Some are even basing their decisions on their belief in the vaccinations.

In this case, they feel that enough people are vaccinated so major economic shutdowns are warranted at this time. But we’ve seen different reactions all around the globe, which could be adding to the confusion over what to do. Lighten up on the long side? Buy more, start selling? Move to the sidelines?

I don’t think I am going to be able to answer any of these questions in this article, but if I had to center on one, I’d have to say “follow the money”. But I should add that I am vaccinated, so I may be biased.

Here’s What Others are Saying and Doing

Fed’s Powell Downplays Delta Variant’s Threat to the Economy

The spread of the COVID-19 delta variant is raising infections, leading some companies and governments to require vaccinations and raising concerns about the U.S. economic recovery, according to the AP.

But on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell injected a note of reassurance, suggesting that the delta variant poses little threat to the economy, at least so far.

“What we’ve seen is with successive waves of COVID over the past year and some months now,” Powell said at a news conference, “there has tended to be less in the way of economic implications from each wave. We will see whether that is the case with the delta variety, but it’s certainly not an unreasonable expectation.”

“Dining out, traveling, some schools might not reopen,” he said. “We may see economic effects from some of that or it might weigh on the return to the labor market. We don’t have a strong sense of how that will work out, so we’ll be monitoring it carefully.”

More Corporations are Requiring Workers to Get Vaccinated ~ Axios

The federal government in May said that it is legal for companies to require employees to get vaccinated for coronavirus.

Google CEO Sundar Pichai sent an email to employees announcing that those going back to the office needed to be vaccinated. The company is also extending its work-from-home policy through October 18.

Facebook said that anyone going back to work in their U.S. campuses must be vaccinated.

Netflix is requiring that the casts for all of its U.S. productions be vaccinated, as well as everyone who comes in contact with them.

Drop in UK COVID-19 Cases Indicates Infections Surge May Be Past Peak ~ Reuters

Early last week, the UK added to the confusion when it reported its lowest daily total of new coronavirus cases since July 4, adding to signs that a recent surge in infections driven by the spread of the Delta variant may have passed its peak.

Sydney Readies for the Army as Lockdown Fails to Squash Australia Delta Outbreak ~ CNN

Sydney’s poorest neighborhoods on Friday braced for military enforcement of the city’s toughest and longest lockdown of the COVID-19 pandemic as the infection as the infection numbers held persistently high five weeks since restrictions began.

The situation appears to be so bleak in Australia that economists are already predicting a third quarter contraction.

Oil Climbs, Notches Fourth Monthly Gain on Growing Demand – Reuters

The crude oil market is interesting since it sold off sharply early in July when the Delta-variant story first broke. The biggest concern was demand destruction.

Since then, however, both WTI and Brent have recovered enough to post a fourth monthly gain, with demand growing faster than supply and vaccinations expected to alleviate the impact of a resurgence in COVID-19 infections across the world.

Conclusion

The best advice appears to be: bet on the vaccinations to work, keep monitoring the global economy especially output and labor and keep an eye on gasoline demand.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – August 1st, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.79% on Saturday. Partially reversing a 5.43% rally from Friday, Bitcoin ended the day at $41,439.0.

A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning intraday high $42,398.0 before hitting reverse.

Falling well short of the first major resistance level at $43,562, Bitcoin fell to a late afternoon intraday low $41,051.0.

While steering clear of the first majors support level at $39,605, Bitcoin fell through the 38.2% FIB of $41,592.

Steering clear of sub-$41,000 levels, Bitcoin briefly broke back through the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 before a late slide back to sub-$41,500 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact, supported by the latest return to $42,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need a sustained fall through the 62% FIB of $27,237 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Saturday.

Bitcoin Cash SV fell by 1.60% to lead the way down, with Litecoin (-0.81%) and Ripple’s XRP (-0.89%) also joining Bitcoin in the red.

It was a bullish day for the rest of the majors, however.

Polkadot and Crypto.com Coin rallied by 8.05% and by 5.10% respectively to lead the way.

Binance Coin (+3.12%), Chainlink (+1.92%), and Ethereum (+2.84%) also found strong support.

Cardano’s ADA (+0.71%) trailed the front runners, however.

In the current the week, the crypto total market fell to a Monday low $1,379bn before rising to a Saturday high $1,646bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $1,605bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance fell to a Monday low 47.07% before rising to a Saturday high 49.18%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 48.29%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.78% to $41,115.0. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning high $41,468.9 before falling to a low $41,105.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Crypto.com Coin was up by 1.02% at the start of the day to buck the trend.

It was a bearish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 0.40% to lead the way down.

BTCUSD 010821 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to move through the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 and the $41,629 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $42,208 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break back through to $42,000 levels.

Barring a broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Saturday’s high $42,398.0 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at $43,500 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $42,976.

Failure to move through the 38.2% FIB and the $41,629 pivot would bring the first major support level at $40,861 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$40,000 levels. The second major support level at $40,282 should limit the downside.

All Eyes on NFP as Fed Won’t Make a Move on Policy without Substantial Labor Market Growth

The Federal Reserve monetary policy statement and remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell set the tone in several financial markets last week with the biggest influence on the U.S. Dollar. Disappointing U.S. economic reports also weighed on the greenback.

Ahead of next week, however, investors are asking whether the sell-off represents a change in the longer-term trend or just a shift in momentum.

With the Fed not scheduled to meet until September 21-22, the move likely represents a shift in momentum since policymakers left in place their change in the timeline for the next interest rate hike that it announced in its June 16 monetary policy statement.

In last Wednesday’s announcement, all it did was push the possible start of tapering nearly seven weeks into the future. It didn’t remove the possibility of tapering and it didn’t move the timeline for the next rate hike so we really can’t call its policy statement “dovish”. It should probably be best described as “less-hawkish”.

Furthermore, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will have two Non-Farm Payrolls and Consumer Inflation reports under their belt before making its late September policy decision. With the labor market and inflation the biggest concerns for the Fed and likely to exert the most influence on policymakers, these are the two reports that traders should pay attention to during August.

The U.S. will release its Non-Farm Payrolls report on August 6 along with data on Average Hourly Earnings and the Unemployment rate. Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to show the economy added 895K new jobs in July. The unemployment rate is expected to dip from 5.9% to 5.7% and Average Hourly Earnings are expected to remain steady at 0.3%.

Labor Market Growth is Powell’s Major Concern

During July, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned his concerns about labor market growth twice in his public speeches. The first mention was mid-month in his testimony before Congress. The second was in his post-monetary policy statement press conference last Wednesday.

On July 14, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress that while the economy has come a long way back from its pandemic-induced depths, the labor market “still has a long way to go.”

“Labor demand appears to be very strong; job openings are at a record high, hiring is robust, and many workers are leaving their jobs,” Powell said. “Indeed, employers added 1.7 million workers from April through June. However, the unemployment rate remained elevated in June at 5.9 percent.”

Powell added that the official unemployment rate understates the real condition of the job market as many potential workers remain on the sidelines for reasons ranging from continued fear of COVID-19, enhanced unemployment benefits and difficultly finding child case.

At last Wednesday’s press conference, Powell fielded many questions about inflation, but he also said that hiring needed to progress further before the Fed would be ready to dial down its support for the economy.

“I’d say we have some ground to cover on the labor market side,” Powell said. “I think we’re some way away from having had substantial further progress toward the maximum employment goal.”

Conclusion

While the initial reaction to the Fed and Powell was to sell the U.S. Dollar because the notion of tapering was put on hold at its last meeting, the real move in the U.S. Dollar over the short-term is likely to follow the July Non-Farm Payrolls report, due on August 6.

A weaker-than-expected report for July will be bearish for the U.S. Dollar because traders will start reducing the chances of the Fed announcing the start of tapering at its September meeting. Furthermore, if July employment data is weak then the August report due in September is also likely to be weak if the COVID crisis gets out of control.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

China Manufacturing PMI Eases; Hong Kong, China Shares Tumble on Regulatory Restrictions, COVID Worries

China released economic data early Saturday that showed factor activity expanded in July as the slowest pace in 17 months as higher raw material costs, equipment maintenance and extreme weather weighed on business activity, adding to concerns about a slowdown in the world’s second-biggest economy, Reuters reported.

The report follows a week of volatile trading in Chinese markets that left Hong Kong Hang Seng Index 5% lower. Both Hong Kong and mainland-listed stocks fell on Friday, losing the partial recovery they made after diving earlier in the week.

China’s Factory Activity in July Grows at Slowest Pace Since February 2020

The official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) eased to 50.4 in July from 50.9 in June, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Saturday, but remained above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction.

Analysts had expected it to slip to 50.8. It was the lowest figure since the index slumped to 35.7 in February 2020, after China began lockdowns to control the coronavirus pandemic.

The official non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) eased to 53.3 in July, from 53.5 in June, a separate survey from the NBS showed.

Hong Kong, China Stocks Resume Slump on Regulatory Concerns, COVID Jump

Shares in Hong Kong and China resumed their slump on Friday after rebounding in the previous session, with key indexes booking their worst monthly performance in years, as persistent concerns over regulatory crackdowns outweighed Beijing’s attempts to calm markets.

China’s blue-chip CSI300 Index closed down 0.8% and posted its biggest monthly loss since October 2018, while the Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.42%, capping its worst month since 2019.

Hong Kong tech shares slumped again, pulling the benchmark Hang Seng Index to its biggest monthly fall since October 2018.

The Hang Seng closed down 1.4%, following Thursday’s 3.3% rally. Tech giants such as Meituan and Alibaba led Friday’s decline. The Hang Seng Tech Index plunged 2.56%, extending its weekly fall to 6.7%.

Global investors have been dumping shares in Chinese companies after Beijing banned for-profit tutoring on core school subjects, following crackdowns earlier this year on the tech sector. The regulatory moves have revived worries about the risks of investing in China.

Finally, a resurgence in COVID-19 cases in mainland China and Hong Kong also dented investors’ risk appetite.

Chinese Companies Looking for US Listings Must File More Disclosures – SEC Chair

The chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission said on Friday that he had asked staff to mandate certain disclosures from offshore issuers associated with China-based operating companies before registration statements can be declared effective.

Gary Gensler also said in a statement that the new disclosures will require Chinese companies tell the regulator and investors whether certain actions could affect the firm’s “financial performance and the enforceability of the contractual arrangements.”

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Japan, South Korean Shares Pressured by Chinese Technology Crackdown, Renewed COVID-19 Concerns

The major Asia-Pacific stock indexes finished lower across the board on Friday, ending a mostly bearish week on a down note. The markets were rattled all week as a Chinese crackdown on its technology sector and rising cases of the Delta coronavirus variant raged against still-dovish monetary policy and mixed earnings from a range of companies.

Friday’s Cash Market Performance

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 Index settled at 27283.59, down 498.83 or -1.80%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index finished at 25961.03, down 354.29 or -1.35% and South Korea’s KOSPI Index closed at 3202.32, down 40.33 or -1.24%.

China’s benchmark Shanghai Index settled at 3397.36, down 14.37 or -0.42% and in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 Index finished at 7392.60, down 24.80 or -0.33%.

Nikkei Ends at Over 6-Month Low on Virus Worries, Earnings Lag

Japan’s Nikkei stock average closed at its lowest since the start of the year on Friday as spiking COVID-19 cases, some earnings disappoints and a decline in U.S. stock futures dented investor sentiment.

The Nikkei’s 1.8% decline on Friday was its biggest decline since June 21 and the lowest close since January 6.

For the month, the Nikkei slumped 5.24%, its worst performance since the coronavirus-induced market meltdown in March last year, after recording an 11th straight decline on the final trading day of the month.

In COVID-related news, Japan’s government on Friday proposed extending the state of emergency through August 31 for Tokyo and some other prefectures, as COVID-19 cases spike to record highs.

“The earnings weren’t that bad, but in terms of the outlook, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of confidence,” which is weighing on stocks, said Masahiro Ichikawa, chief market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management.

“The market is wary that the Nikkei could break below 27,000.”

South Korea Stocks Post Worst Month Since March 2020 on Weak China Shares, Virus Woes

South Korean shares tumbled more than 1% on Friday, and posted its worst monthly decline in more than a year, weighed by continued worries about the Chinese government’s regulatory crackdown and the COVID-19 pandemic.

The KOSPI ended down 40.33 points, or 1.24%, at 3,302.32, its sharpest daily fall in more than two months. The index ended the month down 2.86%, its sharpest monthly decline since March last year, and snapped an eight month winning streak.

In economic news, Friday’s data showed South Korea’s factory output in June rebounded from May on a boost in semiconductor and car production.

In COVID-related news, South Korea reported 1,710 new cases for Thursday, still near the record infections marked this week, even after the country imposed the toughest distancing measures in the metropolitan Seoul area and some neighboring cities.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Inflation Climbs Higher, but Gold Closes Sharply Lower

However, it came in under analyst expectations and forecasts, which was one factor that took gold prices lower on the last trading day of July 2021.

The PCE price index rose 0.5% in June taking the one-year inflationary change to 4% according to the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). It took a combination of four concurrent monthly major upticks in inflation to raise inflation to 4% over the past 12 months. The last time the PCE price index was at this level was in 2008.

pce july

The Federal Reserve’s target has been to maintain an inflationary rate of approximately 2%, this year the fed adjusted its mandate to focus on maximum employment and let inflation run hot. But the fact that inflation based on the CPI is at 5.4%, and now the PCE price index which strips out food costs in energy is double the Federal Reserve’s target it must be running hotter than the Fed expected.

During the press conference held by Chairman Powell this week, he acknowledged that inflation has risen much faster this year than he and other senior Federal Reserve members predicted. He also acknowledged that is possible that inflation “could turn out to be higher and more persistent than we expected.”

The Fed continues to maintain that the current inflationary rate is transitory because rising prices are almost entirely the result of the reopening of the U.S. economy. He blames much of the inflationary pressure is due to supply bottlenecks saying, “Supply bottlenecks have been larger than anticipated.” He also added that “Once these bottlenecks abate and the economy returns to normal.”

While some analysts agree with the Federal Reserve’s assumption that inflation is for the large part a transitory scenario, many analysts believe that the current uptick in inflation is not all transitory citing recent dramatic rises in food cost and energy.

Regardless of the statements by Chairman Powell inflation even using their preferred index which strips out food and energy costs, inflationary pressures are at a dramatic and alarming high. More importantly, because the Fed is assuming that inflation will likely slip back to a number closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target next year, if they are wrong, the implications would be alarming.

As of 5:51 PM EST gold futures basis, the most active December 2021 Comex contract is currently down $18.90 and fixed at $1816.90. On a technical basis, we saw a resistance enter the market as gold broke through both its 200-day moving average yesterday, but stalled just below the 50-day moving average. Today gold prices opened just above the 50-day moving average at $$1831.10. Today gold opened at $1832.50. Therefore, the 50-0day moving average is a critical price point that must be breached on a closing basis next week if we are to see the strong price increases witness yesterday marks the continuation of a rally next week.

July Gold July 29

For more information on our service, simply use this link.
Wishing you, as always, good trading and good health,

Gary Wagner

 

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – July 31st, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, rallied by 5.43% on Friday. Following a 0.05% gain on Thursday, Bitcoin ended the day at $42,214.5.

A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to a late morning intraday low $38,343.0 before making a move.

Bitcoin fell through the first major support level at $39,331 before rallying to a final hour intraday high $42,299.2.

Bitcoin broke through the first major resistance level at $40,682 and the second major resistance level at $41,328.

More significantly, Bitcoin also broke through the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 to end the day at $42,000 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact, supported by the latest return to $42,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need a sustained fall through the 62% FIB of $27,237 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Friday.

Crypto.com Coin and Polkadot fell by 1.22% and by 1.83% respectively to buck the trend on the day.

It was a bullish day for the rest of the majors, however.

Chainlink surged by 15.16% to lead the way. Bitcoin Cash SV (+3.99%), Ethereum (+3.37%), and Litecoin (+2.86%) also found strong support.

Binance Coin (+1.73%), Cardano’s ADA (+1.99%), and Ripple’s XRP (+0.38%) trailed the front runners, however.

In the current the week, the crypto total market fell to a Monday low $1,379bn before rising to a Friday high $1,640bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $1,610bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance fell to a Monday low 47.07% before jumping to a Wednesday high 49.16%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 49.02%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.47% to $42,017.0. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning high $42,398.0 before falling to a low $41,677.5.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Bitcoin Cash SV was down by 0.99% to buck the early trend and join Bitcoin in the red.

It was a bullish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Crypto.com Coin was up by 4.85% to lead the way.

BTCUSD 310721 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall through the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 and the $40,952 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $43,562 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break out from $42,500 levels.

Barring a broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at $45,000 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $44,908.

A fall through the 38.2% FIB and the $40,952 pivot would bring the first major support level at $39,605 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$38,000 levels. The second major support level sits at $36,966.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – July 31st, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum rose by 3.37% on Friday. Following a 3.59% gain on Thursday, Ethereum ended the day at $2,463.90.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum fall to a late morning intraday low $2,317.51 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $2,301, Ethereum rallied to a late intraday high $2,472.18.

Ethereum broke through the first major resistance level at $2,433 to end the day at $2,470 levels.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by 0.63% to $2,448.28. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning high $2,468.76 before falling to a low $2,443.35.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 310721 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid the $2,418 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $2,518 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break out from Friday’s high $2,472.18.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another broad-based crypto rally, Ethereum could resistance at $2,650 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $2,573.

A fall through the $2,418 pivot would bring the first major support level at $2,364 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should continue to steer clear of sub-$2,200 levels. The second major support level at $2,263 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2,364

Pivot Level: $2,418

First Major Resistance Level: $2,518

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $3,369

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $2,740

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1,725

Litecoin

Litecoin rose by 2.86% on Friday. Following a 0.74% gain on Thursday, Litecoin ended the day at $145.62.

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin fall to a late morning intraday low $135.92 before making a move.

Litecoin fell through the first major support level at $138 before rallying to a final our intraday high $145.93.

Litecoin broke through the first major resistance level at $144 to end the day at $145 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down by 0.68% to $144.63. A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $145.84 before falling to a low $144.50.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 310721 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to avoid the $143 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $149 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break out from Friday’s high $145.93.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $150 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended breakout, Litecoin could test resistance at $155. The second major resistance level sits at $153.

A fall through the $143 pivot would bring the first major support level at $139 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Litecoin should continue to steer clear of sub-$135 levels. The second major support level sits at $133.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $139

Pivot Level: $143

First Major Resistance Level: $149

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $178

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $223

62% FIB Retracement Level: $296

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP rose by 0.38% on Friday. Following a 2.39% gain on Thursday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $0.75282.

After a mixed start to the day, Ripple’s XRP fell to a late morning intraday low $0.71252 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.7102, Ripple’s XRP rallied to a late intraday high $0.76948.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.7778, Ripple’s XRP eased back to end the day at sub-$0.76 levels.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 0.62% to $0.74818. A bearish start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP fall from an early morning high $0.75311 to a low $0.74818.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 310721 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to avoid the $0.7449 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.7774 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break out from Friday’s high $0.76948.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another breakout, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at $0.80 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.8019.

A fall through the $0.7449 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.7204 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.70 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.6880.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.7204

Pivot Level: $0.7449

First Major resistance Level: $0.7774

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.8533

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1.0659

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1.4096

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Sideways to Lower As Rangebound Trade Resumes

Gold prices are trading sharply lower late in the session on Friday amid profit-taking ahead of the weekend in reaction to a rebound in the U.S. Dollar index. The weakness has wiped out more than half of yesterday’s gains that were spurred by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s reassure that a rate hike was not in the cards for the time being.

At 19:50 GMT, December Comex gold futures are trading $1817.40, down $18.40 or -1.00%.

Although the market is weaker on Friday, it’s still on-track for a weekly gain. In addition to Powell’s initial comment about a rate hike, bullish traders also responded positively to his remark that the U.S. job market still had some ground to cover before the Fed would pull back support.

Most traders agree that gold looks good at current price levels especially after forming a support base over a two-week period. The fact that the Federal Reserve didn’t really say anything that changes its direction on mortgage/bond purchases or rate hikes at least helps to put a floor under the market.

However, since the next Fed meeting doesn’t take place until September 21-22, gold traders are going to be without guidance from policymakers for nearly two-months. This means that they will be at the mercy of volatile economic reports and Fed speaker comments for weeks.

On June 16, the Fed moved up its date for the next Fed rate hike and the gold market collapsed from $1860.40 to $1754.50 in just 10 sessions before recovering to $1839.00 over the next 11 days.

It’s going to be hard to justify $1860.00 gold at this time and without the Fed saying anything meaningful until the third week of September, but the economic reports between now and then could do the talking for them.

Between last Wednesday’s meeting and the September 22 Federal Reserve policy statement, policymakers will have had a chance to see two Non-Farm Payrolls and Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) reports. But gold traders will have had the same chance so I think that over the next seven weeks or so, the U.S. economic data will play a greater role in determining the direction of gold prices.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Grind Sideways Looking for Next Push Higher

The S&P 500 has pulled back a little bit to kick off the trading session on Friday but turned around to show signs of life again. Because of this, the market looks as if it is ready to go much higher given enough time. I think there is plenty of support underneath at the uptrend line, which of course is followed right along by the 50 day EMA. With this being the case, it is difficult to imagine area where I would be short at, because quite frankly between here and there I anticipate there will be plenty of value hunters.

S&P 500 Video 02.08.21

If we did break down, the 4200 level and of course the 4000 level both offer enticing areas to pick up value, especially the 4000 level as it would be a 10% correction. It should be noted that the 4400 level has caused a bit of noise, but if we can break above there then the 4500 level is my next target but ultimately, I would anticipate seeing markets go much higher than that. My year-end target at the moment is 4600, but quite frankly this market continues to outperform expectations I do not see why it would be any different now.

The Federal Reserve has stated this week that it was not going to get close to tapering anytime soon, so that continues to drive the market higher. We are in the midst of earnings season which of course was very strong, but I think that was already expected considering what we had seen over the last year.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Continue to Show Strength Into the Weekend

WTI Crude Oil

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market initially pulled back during the day on Friday only to turn around and show signs of strength. By doing so, the market looks as if it is threatening the $74 level, opening up the possibility of a move towards the $75 level. Pullbacks at this point in time will still have plenty of support underneath, especially near the $70 level as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and an area where the 50 day EMA has just crossed. After the type of recovery that we have seen over the last couple of weeks, it should be obvious that this is still a “buy on the dips” type of market.

Crude Oil Video 02.08.21

Brent

Brent markets also rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday as we have broken above the $75 level in this market. Brent tends to be the leader in these two markets as there is a bit of a premium attached to it, and therefore I think it should not be surprising to see this market break to a fresh new high before the WTI market does. At that point, then I anticipate that the market goes looking towards the $80 level. Underneath, the 50 day EMA sits at the $72.50 level, and should offer a bit of a “soft floor” for the market, and that of course the $70 level will be much more crucial as far as support is concerned. I think this remains a “buy on the dips” type of situation as it has been four months.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Forecast – Silver Markets Quiet on Friday

Silver markets have gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Friday after initially gapping lower, and now it looks as if we are trying to digest the gains and figure out where to go next. This not a huge surprise, considering just how explosive silver was during the previous session. That being said, the market is likely to be very choppy in the short term, but that is not overly surprising considering that silver tends to be very erratic.

SILVER Video 02.08.21

There is an argument between whether or not we are going to follow the US dollar, as it has such a huge negative correlation, or are we going to follow the industrial demand going forward? Looking at this chart, you can see that there is a lot of noise just above, especially near the $26.50 level. We also have the 50 day EMA sitting in that general vicinity, which of course is an indicator that a lot of technical traders will pay close attention to. If we break above there, then the $27 level will be targeted, followed by the $28 level as it would fill a gap that had formed back in June. At that point, I think there is a significant amount of resistance it could come into the picture in and cause problems.

To the downside, it is very likely that the market could go looking towards the previous uptrend line, assuming that it can even break down below the $25 level. All things been equal, this is a market that is going to be very noisy and choppy, but looking at this chart, it is obvious that we are trying to form a little bit of a base.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Selloff Into the Weekend

Natural gas markets continue to consolidate around the $4.00 level, as we have pulled back from there, but you can see that the market has been in a little bit of a consolidation range between $3.80 and $4.20. At this point, the $4.00 level is essentially the “fair value” of the market right now. I would also point out that just below at the $3.80 level it is the top of the bullish flag, which measures for a move to the $4.40 level.

NATGAS Video 02.08.21

You should also take a look at the massive consolidation area that we broke out of previously with the $2.40 level underneath has offered massive support, and the $3.40 level has been massive resistance. That measures for a $1.00 move from the breakout price of $3.40, so it all kind of comes together at the same time. That being said, it should be noted that the natural gas markets have been seeing a bit of a boost due to the idea of more demand coming out due to the heatwave. As long as that he wave is still around, that is going to drive up pricing over the longer term.

All that being said, it is not a huge surprise to see a little bit of a pullback from the round figure, because after all a lot of technical traders and options barriers tend to gravitate towards these areas. Ultimately, this is a market that I think is going to offer a little bit of value underneath, thereby offering the opportunity of value hunters to get back into the marketplace.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Sluggish to Close Week

Gold markets continued to show signs of exhaustion near the $1830 level on Friday, after surging there during the day on Thursday. At this point, we are going to have to pay close attention to the US dollar, because if it starts to melt down, that might be the catalyst that gold needs to continue to go higher. If we can break out above the top of the candlestick from the Thursday session, then we could go looking towards the $1860 level. That is the top of the gap that we have seen in this market, and it should offer a certain amount of resistance. If we can break above there, then it is obvious that the market could go much higher.

Gold Price Predictions Video 02.08.21

On the other hand, if we were to pull back just a bit, then we could go looking towards the $1810 level, which is where the 200 day EMA currently sits. Underneath there, the market is likely to go looking towards the $1790 level as well, which is the bottom of the overall range. Breaking down below that level then opens up the possibility of a move towards the $1750 level underneath, where we had bounced from earlier this summer.

If we were to turn around a break down below that level, it is very likely that we would go towards the double bottom underneath at the $1680 level. That is an area that is massive support and breaking down below that level opens up a massive flood of selling from what I can see. Keep in mind the negative correlation to the greenback, that is going to be the most important thing to pay attention to.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Test Of Resistance At 1.2480

U.S. Dollar Moves Higher After Hawkish Comments From Fed’s Bullard

USD/CAD is currently trying to settle above the resistance at 1.2480 while the U.S. dollar is gaining ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index has recently managed to get back above the resistance at 92 and is testing the next resistance level which is located at 92.15. In case this test is successful, the U.S. Dollar Index will move towards the resistance level which is located near the 20 EMA at 90.30 which will be bullish for USD/CAD.

Today, U.S. reported that Personal Income increased by 0.1% month-over-month in June while Personal Spending grew by 1%. Both reports exceeded analyst expectations.

Foreign exchange market traders also had a chance to take a look at the final reading of U.S. Consumer Confidence report for July which showed that Consumer Confidence declined from 85.5 in une to 81.2 in July compared to analyst consensus of 80.8.

U.S. dollar received additional support after Fed’s Bullard stated that Fed should begin to reduce its asset purchase program this fall and finish the program at the beginning of 2022. It should be noted that the recent Fed’s commentary remained dovish, and it remains to be seen whether Bullard’s views are shared by the majority of Fed members.

Technical Analysis

usd cad july 30 2021

USD to CAD managed to settle above the resistance at 1.2450 and is testing the next resistance level at 1.2480. In case this test is successful, USD to CAD will move towards the resistance at 1.2500.

A move above the resistance at 1.2500 will open the way to the test of the resistance at the 20 EMA at 1.2520. If USD to CAD gets above this level, it will head towards the next resistance at 1.2550.

On the support side, the nearest support for USD to CAD is located at 1.2450. If USD to CAD gets back below this level, it will move towards the support at the 50 EMA at 1.2435.

A successful test of the support at the 50 EMA will push USD to CAD towards the support at 1.2420. If USD to CAD manages to settle below this level, it will head towards the next support at 1.2385.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Why Amazon Stock Is Down By 7% Today

Amazon Stock Dives On Weak Q3 2021 Guidance

Shares of Amazon found themselves under significant pressure after the company released its second-quarter earnings report.

Amazon reported revenue of $113.1 billion, which was lower than analyst estimates. The company’s GAAP earnings of $15.12 per share exceeded analyst expectations but were not sufficient enough to provide support to Amazon shares.

In Q3 2021, Amazon expects to report revenue of $106 billion – $112 billion, which means that Amazon’s revenue will decrease compared to the second quarter. The company’s operating income is projected to be between $2.5 billion and $6 billion compared to $6.2 billion in Q3 2020.

The market was clearly shocked by the company’s quidance for the next quarter, and the stock opened with a big gap down. The stock has made an attempt to gain ground as some speculative traders decided to buy the dip, but it failed to develop upside momentum.

What’s Next For Amazon Stock?

Investors and traders got used to strong reports from Amazon so the soft Q3 2021 guidance dealt a major blow to the stock. Analysts expect that the company will report earnings of $55.86 per share in 2021 and $72.38 per share in 2022, so the stock is trading at roughly 46 forward P/E.

Amazon has always enjoyed rich multiples as investors believed in its growth story, and it remains to be seen whether one report will change the market’s view.

It should be noted that the report highlights potential problems for all leading tech companies as they may face slower growth in case the world succeeds in its battle against the coronavirus pandemic and gets back to normal life.

It’s too early to say that Amazon’s growth story is under question, and the stock will surely attract opportunistic buyers. However, it remains to be seen whether support from such buyers will be sufficient enough to push Amazon shares back to recent highs in the upcoming trading sessions.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/JPY Price Forecast – US Dollar Continues to Consolidate Against Yen

The US dollar has rallied a bit during the course of the trading session on Friday as we continue to see a lot of choppy noise in this market. The ¥110 level has been a bit of a magnet for price and is nothing on this chart that suggests it is not going to continue to be so. The 50 day EMA sits just below the ¥110 level, so it is not a huge surprise to see that the market would go looking towards that area. If we can break above the ¥110 level, then the ¥110.75 level is also resistance, and then we have the ¥111.50 level. Keep in mind that once we get towards the highs again, we need to pay close attention to the longer-term charts, because we have so much in the way of resistance going back several months.

USD/JPY Video 02.08.21

The USD/JPY pair has a strong correlation to risk appetite, and therefore you should pay close attention to that as well. The NASDAQ 100 melted down late in the day on Thursday, and that caused a little bit of pressure over here. Nonetheless, I think given enough time we are simply going to grind back and forth as we try to figure out the next move longer term. Breaking down below the ¥109 level could open up further selling, but you should also keep in mind that the 200 day EMA is just under there as well, so it could also offer a little bit of psychological and structural support.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Price Action Indicates Traders Believe Demand Will Outstrip Supply

U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures are trading relatively flat on Friday in a lackluster trade as investors do a little position-squaring ahead of the weekend following a volatile, but profitable week.

The catalyst behind this week’s gains has been reduced to the simplest of terms:  bullish traders believe that demand will continue to outstrip supply until at least the end of the year.

At 13:15 GMT, September WTI crude oil futures are trading $73.63, up $0.01 or +0.01%, and October Brent crude oil is at $75.13, up $0.03 or +0.04%.

The week began with a steep sell-off due to concerns over demand destruction as bearish traders increased bets the surging coronavirus delta-variant would slow down the pace of global economic growth.

After a plunge on Monday, buyers stepped in to successfully stop the price slide because they believe that demand will continue to grow the next four months, while vaccinations are expected to alleviate the impact of a resurgence in COVID-19 infections across the globe.

Although buyers and sellers battled it out for two sessions earlier in the week, those with a bullish outlook eventually prevailed when private industry and government inventories data confirmed the strong demand.

The case for stronger demand was further strengthened on Wednesday when the U.S. Federal Reserve confirmed that economic progress was being made. The supply picture even became a little rosier after a story circulated that progress in talks between the United States and Iran over a nuclear deal had stalled, further pushing forward an additional supply from the rogue nation.

Daily Forecast

Although the price action is a little mixed on Friday, the market remains underpinned. This is pretty clear evidence of the presence of buyers even as coronavirus cases rise and parts of the world revert back to lockdowns and restrictions that are not as harsh as we saw during the peak of the pandemic year in 2020. This also offers further evidence that bullish traders believe that higher vaccination rates will keep the new surge under control.

“The oil market no longer appears to be viewing the issue of the Delta variant with quite the same alarm as it was at the beginning of last week,” said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch.

“There is confidence that the ongoing vaccination campaigns in the industrialized countries will prevent any reintroduction of widespread mobility restrictions,” he added.

“Delta is a risk, but is it going to derail demand growth in the second half?  We may not see that,” said Commonwealth Bank commodities analyst Vivek Dhar.

This bullish theme is likely to carry over into next week with the next major challenge for traders – the fair pricing of crude oil – with OPEC+ expected to begin upping production by 400,000 barrels per day on August 1.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Daily Forecast – Test Of Resistance At $25.60

Silver Gains Ground Ahead Of The Weekend

Silver continues its attempts to settle above the 20 EMA at $25.60 while the U.S. dollar is gaining ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index is currently located in the range between the support at the 50 EMA at 91.90 and the resistance at the 92 level. If the U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle back above the 92 level, it will move towards the resistance at 92.15 which will be bearish for silver and gold price today. Stronger dollar is bearish for precious metals as it makes them more expensive for buyers who have other currencies.

Gold failed to settle above the resistance level at $1835 and pulled back towards $1825. The nearest significant support level for gold is located at the 50 EMA at $1815. If gold gets to the test of this level, silver will find itself under pressure.

Gold/silver ratio did not manage to settle back above 71.50 and is slowly moving towards the 71 level. In case gold/silver ratio manages to test the 71 level, silver will get more support.

Technical Analysis

silver july 30 2021

Silver is currently testing the resistance level at the 20 EMA at $25.60. If silver manages to get above the 20 EMA, it will gain additional upside momentum and head towards the next resistance level which is located at yesterday’s highs at $25.80.

A move above the resistance at $25.80 will push silver towards the next resistance at the 50 EMA at $26.10. If silver manages to settle above the 50 EMA at $26.10, it will head towards the resistance level which is located at $26.30.

On the support side, the nearest support level for silver is located at $25.50. If silver declines below this level, it will move towards the support at $25.30. A move below the support at $25.30 will open the way to the test of the support at $25.00. In case silver gets below $25.00, it will move towards the next support level at $24.70.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/USD Price Forecast – British Pound Pulls Back From Major Barrier

The British pound has initially rallied during the course of the trading session on Friday, but then pulled back to show signs of exhaustion at the 1.40 handle. That being the case, the market is likely to see a lot of pressure in this area as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and of course the market will be paying attention to it. Quite frankly, if we can break above the 1.40 handle, that would be a very bullish sign for the British pound and could send this market much higher. On the other hand, if we were to break down below the 50 day EMA, that could cause some issues.

GBP/USD Video 02.08.21

Breaking down below the 50 day EMA then opens up the possibility of a move back down to the 1.37 handle, which is where I would also expect to see the 200 day EMA sits at. With that being the case, I think this is a market that will try to break down significantly, perhaps reaching to the 1.35 handle if we do get down there. That being said, the most recent move has been as bullish as it has ever been, so I think it would take something rather ugly to make this a reality.

With this situation, I would be much more likely to buy a pullback on signs of support if we get it than to be short of this market, at least as things stand at the moment. Whether or not we can break above the 1.42 handle above is a completely different question that we may have to ask in the next few weeks. That is an area that has been crucial more than once.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.