Dow Jones Industrial Average forecast for the week of November 19, 2012, Technical Analysis

Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average chart and you can see that this futures market has been beaten rather severely over the last month or so. The futures have found the 12,500 level, and did manage to bounce slightly from them.

It should be noted that the Friday candle was a hammer after all, and this of course could lead to more bullishness. However, we think that this market is selling off for a reason, mainly the fears of the fiscal cliff in the United States, and as such until that gets fixed we figure there is still quite a bit of downside potential in this market. Because of this, we are willing to sell if we get below the 12,500 level on a daily close. Otherwise, we would sell rallies as they show weakness, perhaps right around the 13,000 level.

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average forecast for the week of November 19, 2012, Technical Analysis
Dow Jones Industrial Average forecast for the week of November 19, 2012, Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 19, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures initially fell during the session on Friday, but got a nice boost from the 12,500 level in order to form a hammer for the session. This area does begin quite a bit of support, so we do expect a bounce coming in the near-term. As would’ve been predicated mainly upon a congressional group that suggested great progress had been made in talks to in the fiscal problems in the United States. Because of this, we do believe that optimism will reenter the market sometime soon, but this is more than likely a short-term rally, and could be faded much later.

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 19, 2012, Technical Analysis
Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 19, 2012, Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 16, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell drastically during the session on Thursday as the markets continue to worry about the so-called “fiscal cliff” in the United States. Whether or not we can get some type of resolution is a serious question now, and this is being reflected in all US stock markets.

Looking at this chart, it looks absolutely broken, and we see no reason to start buying. Quite frankly, until some type of deal is reached, we think that the market is simply one you sell on rallies. We do think that a bounce is long overdue, and we will more than likely get it fairly soon. Because of this, we are going to let this market rise or bounce before we start selling again.

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 16, 2012, Technical Analysis
Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 16, 2012, Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 15, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell precipitously during the session on Wednesday as the President came out and dug his heels in on any idea of a grand bargain between himself and the Republicans. As president Obama stands steadfast in his desire to tax the wealthiest in the United States, the Republicans stand steadfast in their ideal to close tax loopholes as opposed to raising tax rates.

Because of the press conference that the President gave during the Wednesday session, Wall Street got very nervous as he looks very unlikely to try and negotiate. With all this being said, it is more likely that the United States falls off of the fiscal cliff than previously thought. Because of this, Wall Street sold off anything even remotely close to being a “risky asset.”

This will be the norm going forward until the end of the year. Even if a deal is struck, it’s very likely that we will get knee-jerk reactions like this from time to time. In fact, many wealthier investors are simply out of the market right now. There are far too many headline risks out there, and many people do not want to be bothered with it.

It looks as if there is a significant amount of support at the 12,400 level, so we suspect some type of bounce from that area. If you look at the Dow Jones over the last handful of sessions, we are down 5% since President Obama was reelected. With this in mind, it does look like we’re going to enter a very volatile time for this market. Because of this, we now look to trade shorter-term time frames, and only use the daily charts for some type of overall direction. Right now, you would have to say that that overall direction is most certainly down. Because of this we are looking for short-term rallies to fade as we think all optimism will be short-lived until the actual agreement is reached. Because of this, we are definitely bearish at this moment.

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 15, 2012, Technical Analysis
Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 15, 2012, Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures November 14, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures attempted to rally during the session on Tuesday, but fell short at the 12,800 level. The resulting candle was a shooting star, and this is of course formed at the bottom of a significant drop. This typically will mean continuation, which has us thinking that selling will be the way to go forward.

If we managed to break down below the candle from Friday, we think this is a nice sell signal as starting to drift lower. However, we see lots of Meyer areas below that should continue to support this market overall. Traders will more than likely find frustration trying to short this pair who does not have a longer-term outlook.

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures November 14, 2012, Technical Analysis
Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures November 14, 2012, Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 13, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones Futures had a very quiet session on Monday as many Americans were away celebrating Veterans Day. On Friday, we formed a hammer, and this is an area where we would expect to see some sort of support. Because of this, a bounce could be coming. Nonetheless, we see the 13,000 level as a significant resistance barrier in which to get above. Until we could do that, we would be very leery of buying this market. On the other hand, if we managed to break the bottom of the hammer from Friday, we would become aggressively short this futures market.

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 13, 2012, Technical Analysis
Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 13, 2012, Technical Analysis

Dow Jones 30 Futures forecast for the week of November 12, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures had a very volatile five sessions this past week as we managed to hit the 13,200 level, only to fall precipitously back down to the 12,700 area. The end of the week saw the futures market close at 12,815 which of course is closer to the bottom than the top.

With the fiscal cliff looming at the end of December, many American traders are very leery to take exposure to risk right now. With the shape of the candle, this of course does suggest that perhaps more downside is being threatened by the sellers. It should be noted that the couple of sessions this week that had so much bearish pressure saw a sizable pick up in volume, which normally means that big money is moving the market.

It appears that the market could run as low as 12,000 in the short-term, as there are a few minor support areas below, but nothing that would have us overly concerned if we were already short. We think that as long as the US government remains so fractured, the whole discussion about the fiscal cliff will more than likely disappoint more often than not. Because of this, we expect a lot of volatility until the end of the year, and this normally means downward pressure.

Our base case is at the end of the year the US decides to “kick the can down the road.” This is the norm, but it will buy some time for the Congress to get its act together. Looking forward, a break above the 13,200 level would be a strong sign of bullishness coming into the marketplace and we would have to be long of this market at that point. However, we still think the easiest path is down going forward.

Adding to the entire headline risks out there is the fact that earnings are coming in week next quarter. Is because of this that we think the market will more than likely continue the decline over the next couple of months.

 

Dow Jones 30 Futures forecast for the week of November 12, 2012, Technical Analysis
Dow Jones 30 Futures forecast for the week of November 12, 2012, Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 12, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose during the session off of the 12,700 level on Friday. However, the overall tone of this market has been week for some time, and continues to suggest that we will fall. We view the 13,000 level as resistive, and would expect a nice sell signal somewhere in that vicinity if we do raise that high.

Going forward though, it seems very unlikely that breaking above that area will happen. We expect with all of the headline risks out there right now that the market should continue lower, and are simply looking for some type of resistant candle from which to start selling again.

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 12, 2012, Technical Analysis
Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 12, 2012, Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 9, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures came completely undone at the 13,200 level during the Thursday session. The candle is massive and red, and certainly signifies that we have entered a new down leg in this market. With this being said, the 13,000 level has been broken significantly, and this psychological important area should now offer resistance. It appears that there is no particular reason to see this market rising over time, and we suspect that a move to 12,400 is in the cards. We expect weakness until the US government manages to find some type of solution to get out of the so-called “fiscal cliff.”

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 9, 2012, Technical Analysis
Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 9, 2012, Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 8, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures initially rose during the session on Wednesday, but found a ton of resistance at the 13,200 level. The result was a massive selloff as Wall Street in general found plenty of reasons to start selling. We broke down below the 13,000 support level, and close of the very lows of the day. This chart looks like one that’s going to continue lower, and as such it will be very difficult to be a buyer at this point in time.

Having said this, we think that this market is poised to continue falling, but we will wait until we break the lows from the Wednesday session in order to start selling. As for buying is concerned, we have no plans.

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 8, 2012, Technical Analysis
Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 8, 2012, Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 7, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose during the session on Tuesday as we bounced from the 13,000 level yet again. The present area reaches to the 13,200 level, and is very much consolidation. If we can get above the Friday highs, we think we would continue to grind higher to roughly the 13,500 level. However, we also see the possibility of a return to consolidation and down to the 13,000 level. With the US presidential elections going on during the session on Tuesday, is very difficult to read too much into these charts until the election results are known. Once they are, we can judge a reaction out of the marketplace with a little bit more confidence.

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 7, 2012, Technical Analysis
Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 7, 2012, Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures market rose slightly during the session on Monday, bouncing off of the 13,000 level yet again. This area is the epicenter of consolidation lately, and as such we think this market is set to continue. Certainly, we need to see the US Presidential Election results before trading this market. It will have a massive effect on stock markets around the world, and especially so here and the United States. With that being said, we are flat of this market and will be until at least Wednesday, or whenever we get the results. There is of course the very real possibility that we will not get results right away as the election is so tight.

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 6, 2012, Technical Analysis
Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average forecast for the week of November 5, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones industrial average futures initially rose for the week, but were repelled at the 13,200 level. The fall that we saw later in the week, especially on Friday, sell this market print a shooting star for the week once it was all said and done.

We currently sit just below the 13,000 level. If we managed to break the lows of the weekly candle, we suspect that this market will continue much lower. In fact, many of the indices around the world suddenly look very susceptible to bearish pressure. On the other hand, if we managed to break above the 13,250 level, this would break the top of the shooting star for the week and have us buying.

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average forecast for the week of November 5, 2012, Technical Analysis
Dow Jones Industrial Average forecast for the week of November 5, 2012, Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 5, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones Industrial Average initially rallied during the Friday session, but failed to stick above the 13,200 level. Because of this, we ended up forming a shooting star for the session on Friday, and it looks as if the sellers are really starting to gain some steam here.

This was predicated mainly upon to distinct things going on at one time: the jobs number out of the United States was stronger than expected, and the 13,200 resistance level fighting the buyers. While you would think that creating more jobs than expected would be a good thing for the economy, the fact is that the market has been running on the quantitative easing coming of the Federal Reserve for quite some time. If the market doesn’t get its “sugar high”, it could fall flat on its face in this may be what a lot of the traders were concerned about.

While the shows a completely dysfunctional marketplace, this is the market we find ourselves dealing with now. Because of this, we would not be surprised at all to see this market fall and would start getting short at the 12,900 level. As far as buying is concerned, we need to see a move above 13,250 in order to do so.

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 5, 2012, Technical Analysis
Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 5, 2012, Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 2, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose during the session after initially falling on Thursday. We found support at the 13,000 level yet again, and at that point buyers stepped in and push the market much higher. The Dow Jones in general did well, as did most stock indices in the United States. By the end of the day, we had seen it least a 1% rise in all of them.

Looking forward, it appears that there is a significant amount of resistance at about the 13,250 level, so we think this rally is somewhat limited. Also, you have to keep in mind that the jobs number comes out later today, and then of course will affect this market. Because of this, we are a little bit more bearish overall, but are waiting until the end of the day to assess any selling signals we get.

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 2, 2012, Technical Analysis
Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 2, 2012, Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 1, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose slightly during the session on Wednesday as we continue to hover around the 13,000 level. This area is previous support, so it makes sense that we are pausing in this general vicinity. However, it must be said that the market does look a bit on the weak side overall, and as such a sustained move below 12,900 would be a very bearish signal. In fact, at that point time we would start selling futures aggressively.

On the other hand, if we managed to break the highs from the last couple of sessions, this could see a nice bounce happen as we could head towards 13,200 without much difficulty. Because of all of this, we are going to wait and see as to which direction the market once the breakout to before we place a trade.

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 1, 2012, Technical Analysis
Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast November 1, 2012, Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast October 31, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures traded during the session on Tuesday, even as the stock markets in New York were closed. However, the futures market is indicating that perhaps we are about to see a bounce in this marketplace. The 13,000 level certainly looks supportive, and the Tuesday session formed a hammer that looks like we could be getting ready to bounce again.

Because of this, it looks like we are going to take an attempt to get back to the 13,200 level, and as such we are willing to take a small position on the long side if we managed to break above the 13,100 level. Again, this is a small position, as we see the 13,200 level as potential resistance. As for selling, we would become aggressively short if we managed to break down below the lows from the Friday hammer.

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast October 31, 2012, Technical Analysis
Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast October 31, 2012, Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast October 30, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones futures fell during the session on Monday, even as the Dow Jones was not going to open of for the trading day. Because of this, we are essentially writing off most of the trading action for the last 24 hours, as it does not reflect the reality of where the Dow Jones Industrial Average may be going.

It should also be noted that the markets in the United States are close on Tuesday as well, and as such we will definitely ignore the Dow Jones futures for today’s session as well. At this point time, it is expected that the NYSE will be open on Wednesday, as well as all other US stock markets.

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast October 30, 2012, Technical Analysis
Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Forecast October 30, 2012, Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average forecast for the week of October 29, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell precipitously during the week as we smash through the 13,300 level. By the time Friday close down the trading week, we found ourselves at roughly 13,100. This area is writing in the middle of previous consolidation, and was reached by bouncing off of the 13,000 level. Is because of this, that we feel 13,000 will be crucial.

If we can get a close below 13,000, we would become aggressively short of the Dow Jones futures as well as using certain ETFs that are inverse of the Dow Jones. With this being said, it is in an uptrend, and as such we still feel that upon supportive candles that this market would be easier to trade for the upside.

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average forecast for the week of October 29, 2012, Technical Analysis
Dow Jones Industrial Average forecast for the week of October 29, 2012, Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average Forecast October 29, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones Industrial Average did very little on Friday, as it bounced around in a 100 point range. By the end of the session, we are up just slightly and the market basically was where it was at the close of business on Wednesday. The last three sessions of this week have basically been a wash, and as such it appears that the 13,000 level still continues offer enough support, and a buffered zone, that the buyers are trying to accumulate and push this market higher.

Because of this, we are very interested in going long of the Dow via the futures market if we can get above the 13,150 level. We would also buy dividend paying names, as well as household once as a representation of the Dow 30.

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average Forecast October 29, 2012, Technical Analysis
Dow Jones Industrial Average Forecast October 29, 2012, Technical Analysis