Why Shares Of Dollar Tree Are Rallying Today?

Dollar Tree Video 03.03.21.

Dollar Tree Stock Moves Higher After Solid Earnings Report

Shares of Dollar Tree are gaining more than 3.5% in today’s trading session after the company released its fourth-quarter earnings report.

Dollar Tree reported revenue of $6.77 billion and GAAP earnings of $2.13 per share, beating analyst estimates on earnings and meeting them on revenue. Same-store sales showed solid growth in all segments, and the company continued to expand the number of its stores.

Dollar Tree also stated that the combination of Dollar Tree And Family Dollar stores proved to be a great format for small towns and that such Combination Stores were delivering a same-store sales lift of greater than 20% on average.

The market is clearly pleased with the report which showed that Dollar Tree continued to perform well in the fourth quarter. In addition, the company’s Board of Directors increased the share repurchase authorization by $2 billion which served as a bullish catalyst. At current stock price, Dollar Tree will repurchase about 19.4 million shares, while the number of shares outstanding is about 236 million.

What’s Next For Dollar Tree?

Shares of Dollar Tree had a challenging start of 2021 as traders bet that the healthy recovery of the economy will put pressure on discount stores. Shares of Dollar Tree’s peers were under pressure as well.

However, the strong fourth-quarter report and the decision to increase share buyback may serve as sufficient upside catalysts which may stop the local downside trend.

It should be noted that the U.S. will soon deliver a huge $1.9 trillion stimulus package which will boost consumer activity. It remains to be seen how much of $1,400 stimulus checks will be put into purchases in discount stores, but the new package will certainly boost sales of most retailers.

The stock is currently trading at about 17 forward P/E which is not very cheap, but the whole market is expensive right now so many investors will likely find Dollar Tree attractive enough at current levels.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Earnings to Watch Next Week: Zoom, Target, Dollar Tree and Costco in Focus

Earnings Calendar For The Week Of March 1

Monday (March 1)


Zoom Video Communications Inc is expected to report a profit of $0.79 per share in the fourth quarter, which represents year-over-year growth of over 425% from $0.15 per share seen in the same quarter a year ago.

The company, which provides videotelephony and online chat services through a cloud-based peer-to-peer software platform, would post year-over-year revenue growth of over 330% to $811.77 million.

“As work-from-home (WFH) persists and Zoom (ZM) Phone gains traction, ZM appears to set up for a strong FQ4 print. More than FQ4/FQ1 report/guide, investor focus/reaction likely based on whether co guides full FY22. Would view the full-year guide as a pos NT catalyst given cautious investor sentiment, however, remain Equal-weight given 2H comps,” noted Meta A Marshall, an equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

Zoom has established its position as the newly emerged leader in video conferencing, now a growth market, largely credible to the company itself given an introduction of a solution that employees actually use. The company has a meaningful competitive moat built on more than just architecture, but a rapid uptick in video usage has attracted significant investment efforts from competitors. Position within customers makes an attractive opportunity to expand into the broader UC market. Early wins encouraging. Environment post-COVID-19 and large-scale WFH, and timing to reach, less certain.”


Ticker Company EPS Forecast
BNZL Bunzl £71.65
FMX Fomento Economico Mexicano Sab $14.49
XRAY Dentsply International $0.64
PRGO Perrigo $1.01
TGNA Tegna $1.13
AXSM Axsome Therapeutics Inc -$0.75
EVTC Evertec $0.55
THRM Gentherm $0.65
BZLFY Bunzl plc $0.13
NRG NRG Energy $0.45
MIDD Middleby $1.40
AY Atlantica Yield $0.23
ZM Zoom Video Communications $0.79
NVAX Novavax -$1.78
TTEC TeleTech $0.71
AMRC Ameresco $0.29
IPAR Inter Parfums $0.30
NSTG NanoString Technologies -$0.50
AI Arlington Asset Investment -$0.19
CCXI ChemoCentryx -$0.33
CYRX Cryoport Inc -$0.05
SGMS Scientific Games -$0.44
DDD 3D Systems $0.09
SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics -$1.80
NGHC National General $0.73
SRNE Sorrento Therape -$0.23
JD JD.com $0.22
AIV Apartment $0.01
PKX Posco $1.52
BKRKY Bank Rakyat $0.13
OSH Oak Street Health -$0.25
YALA Yalla $0.12
KHOLY Koc Holdings AS $0.55
DM Dominion Midstream Partners -$0.06
CXO Concho Resources $1.18
MNTA Momenta Pharmaceuticals -$0.50
PE Parsley Energy $0.25
BEAT BioTelemetry $0.48


Tuesday (March 2)


The eighth-largest retailer in the United States is expected to report a profit of $2.55 per share in the fourth quarter, which represents year-over-year growth of over 50% from $1.69 per share seen in the same quarter a year ago. In the last four consecutive quarters, on average, the company has delivered an earnings surprise of 60%.

The Minneapolis, Minnesota-based company would post year-over-year revenue growth of over 17% to $27.419 billion.

“We maintain our 4Q20 EPS estimate of $2.55 on comps +17.2%, in line with holiday sales, but could see upside on stimulus benefit in Jan. We model FY21 EPS of $8.96, +2% above Street. TGT’s ability to comp the comp will be the headline topic at its Investor Day, and management could conservatively guide FY21 comps and EPS to -LSD to -MSD,” said Oliver Chen, equity analyst at Cowen and Company.

“Fundamentally, we do believe TGT’s momentum is well-positioned to continue as consumers invest in home, appreciate TGT’s private brands, and take advantage of a myriad of convenient and innovative shopping modalities including Drive-Up; furthermore, the backdrop of stimulus payments and a high savings rate are strong positives.”


Ticker Company EPS Forecast
SYDB Sydbank A/S kr3.14
CRDA Croda International £84.78
TW Taylor Wimpey £17.00
WEIR Weir Group £43.79
TPK Travis Perkins £43.60
ROR Rotork £6.25
TGT Target $2.55
AZO AutoZone $12.80
KSS Kohl’s $0.99
AER AerCap $0.94
AMRS Amyris -$0.12
SE Spectra Energy -$0.55
DAR Darling Ingredients $0.38
QTRX Quanterix -$0.33
VEEV Veeva Systems $0.68
ROST Ross Stores $1.00
HPE Hewlett Packard $0.41
JWN Nordstrom $0.13
AMBA Ambarella $0.08
GO Grocery Outlet Holding Corp $0.23
URBN Urban Outfitters $0.28
BOX BOX $0.17
ALLK Allakos -$0.85
AHT Ashtead Group £0.29
EDEN Edenred €0.65
ITRK Intertek Group £83.44
IGT International Game Technology $0.04
EMG Man Group £0.07
MSNFY Minera Frisco ADR $0.03
AVAV AeroVironment $0.01
TGTX TG Therapeutics -$0.57


Wednesday (March 3)


Chesapeake, Virginia-based discount variety stores that sells items for $1 or less is expected to report a profit of $2.12 per share in the fiscal fourth quarter, which represents year-over-year growth of over 18% from $1.79 per share seen in the same quarter a year ago.

In the last four consecutive quarters, on average, the company has delivered an earnings surprise of over 14%.

The Fortune 500 company, which operates 15,115 stores throughout the 48 contiguous U.S. states and Canada, would post year-over-year revenue growth of over 7% to $6,774 million.

Dollar Tree’s namesake banner has a long history of strong performance, enabled by its differentiated value proposition, but its Family Dollar unit has struggled to generate top-line and margin growth since it was acquired in 2015. We suspect the Dollar Tree banner is better-positioned long-term, but do not believe the aggregated firm benefits from a durable competitive edge, as competitive pressure in a fast-changing retail environment amid minimal switching costs limits results. We expect the COVID-19 pandemic’s effects to be confined to the near term, leaving the long-term competitive dynamic intact,” said Zain Akbari, equity analyst at Morningstar.

“We expect comparable sales gains in the mid-single digits for the Dollar Tree banner and high-single-digits for Family Dollar in the fourth quarter, as rising infection rates led customers to stock up with a focus on essentials and value. Cost leverage should drive the quarter’s operating margin higher by nearly 100 basis points (to 10%) versus the same period in fiscal 2019. We expect sales to normalize in 2021as vaccines gradually contain the pandemic.”


Ticker Company EPS Forecast
DLTR Dollar Tree $2.12
WEN Wendy’s $0.18
TAC TransAlta USA -$0.07
PDCO Patterson Companies $0.51
DY Dycom Industries $0.04
MRVL Marvell Technology $0.29
SNOW Intrawest Resorts -$0.17
SPLK Splunk $0.03
AEO American Eagle Outfitters $0.36
SQM Sociedad Quimica Y Minera De Chile $0.22
TCOM Trip.com Group Ltd $0.28
YEXT Yext Inc. -$0.08
MTLS Materialise $0.01
CPB Campbell Soup $0.83
NAV Navistar International -$0.02
VNET 21Vianet $0.05
ABM ABM Industries $0.58


Thursday (March 4)


The largest wholesale club operator in the U.S. is expected to report a profit of $2.44 in the fiscal second quarter, which represents year-over-year growth of over 16% from $2.10 per share seen in the same quarter a year ago.

In the last four consecutive quarters, on average, the company has delivered an earnings surprise of 8.8%.

COST’s results have consistently been among the best in Retail. Over the past decade, COST has delivered 6% comps and 10% EBIT growth on average. It is rare to find a business with COST’s solid comp/membership growth, while relative e-commerce insulation differentiates its value proposition from other retailers,” said Simeon Gutman, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“We are Overweight even as the stock trades at an elevated valuation given COST’s scarcity value, safety, and scale. In the near-term, we expect incremental sales uplifts from COVID-19 disruption, and earnings power looks stronger despite COVID-19 expenses.”


Ticker Company EPS Forecast
KR Kroger $0.69
TTC Toro $0.74
BJ BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc $0.67
BZUN Buzzi Unicem RSP $3.55
BURL Burlington Stores $2.11
CIEN Ciena $0.45
MIK Michaels Companies $1.41
JAMF Jamf $0.01
AVGO Avago Technologies $6.56
MDLA Medallia, Inc. -$0.01
GWRE Guidewire Software -$0.01
COO Cooper Companies $2.77
GPS Gap $0.19
COST Costco Wholesale $2.44
GOL Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes -$0.41
ALXO Alx Oncology Holdings Inc. -$0.36
AUOTY AU Optronics $0.31
TOELY Tokyo Electron Ltd PK $0.80
FIZZ National Beverage $0.33
CMD Cantel Medical Corp $0.49
PHI Philippine Long Distance Telephone $0.63
MBT Mobile TeleSystems OJSC $17.30
CNQ Canadian Natural Resource USA $0.10


Friday (March 5)

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
BIG Big Lots $2.50


Dollar Tree Gains Amid New CEO Appointment

Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) shares climbed 1.74% Monday after the discount variety retailer said it had appointed Michael Witynski as its new chief executive officer. Witynski, will succeed outgoing CEO Gary Philbin, who had been in the role since 2017. He brings comprehensive experience to the top job, having served as the company’s chief operating officer, and most recently as its enterprise president. To facilitate a smooth transition, Philbin will remain as an executive and board member until Sept. 23, 2020.

The timing of the move in the middle of a global pandemic raised eyebrows with some analysts. ‘While past promotions made it fairly obvious that Mr. Witynski was being groomed as the next in line, timing of the news is a bit peculiar, in our view,’ Jefferies analyst Christopher Mandeville wrote in a note to clients cited by Barron’s. However, the analyst believes Witynski’s focus on sales and margins justified the market’s positive reaction.

Dollar Tree stock has a market capitalization of $23 billion and trades 3.26% higher on the year through July 20. Performance has improved over the last three months, with the shares gaining 23%.

Navigating the Pandemic

The retailer told investors in May that it has access to a $1.25 million credit line and holds around $1.9 million in cash and investments to ride out uncertainty caused by the pandemic. Dollar Tree also said it plans to halt its repurchase program for the immediate future, though its current buyback has $800 million remaining. At the store level, the firm has reduced its planned renovations this year to 750 from its original expectation of 1,250.

Wall Street View

The majority of analysts remain neutral on the stock as they wait for further clarity about earnings in the coming quarters. Currently, it receives 13 ‘Hold’ ratings, 1 “Overweight’ rating, and 10 ‘Buy’ ratings. The 12-month Street consensus price target on Dollar Tree shares sits at $105.50. This represents an 8.6% premium to Monday’s $97.12 close.

Technical Outlook

The share price broke above a multi-month downtrend line in mid-May but has traded within a symmetrical triangle since. Price started to climb above the pattern’s top trendline last week, with gains consolidating Monday as traders digested the CEO announcement. In the coming days, watch for a cross of the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) above the 200-day SMA. Technical analysts refer to this as a golden cross – a signal that indicates the formation of a new uptrend. If the upside continues, look for a test of the 52-week high around $120. Alternatively, a breakdown below the triangle could see a test of crucial support at $75.