Forex Daily Recap – Bond Yields Drop Beyond 2% as Powell Hinted a Rate Cut in July

USD Index

The Greenback continued to extend losses on Thursday’s trading session. At around 12:30 GMT, the USD Index found some support near 96.61 levels and took recovery path. The plunge came in after the Fed hinted of a rate cut by December 2019. Fed Chair Powell would likely exercise an “insurance cut” by July. Following the Fed announcement, the US 10-year Treasury Bond Yields dropped and moved below 2%.

10-Year Bond Yield
10-Year Bond Yield

On the events front, the US Jobless Claims figures reported lower-than-expectations, which allowed the Index to reverse trend today. The Continuing Jobless Claims computed since June 7 reported 1.662 million over 1.688 million forecasts. Meantime, the Greenback appeared to shrug over weak June Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey data. This data reported merely 0.3 over 11.0 estimates. A few moments ago, reports suggested that Iran attacked a US military surveillance drone flying over the Strait of Hormuz. Trump confirmed the attacks and tweeted, “Iran made a very big mistake!”. The global conditions seem to grow worse and probabilities of war sets in risk-off sentiment.

USD/JPY

At around 16:51 GMT, the Ninja was 1.39% down reaching near 107.24 levels last touched on January 3. The BoJ decided to maintain an ultra-easy monetary policy and kept the short-term rates unchanged at -0.1%. However, the policymakers hinted to maintain the long term interest rates close to 0.0%.

USDJPY 60 Min 20 June 2019
USDJPY 60 Min 20 June 2019

Additionally, BOJ Governor Kuroda mentioned that the Bank would remain flexible over future easing options depending on the incoming data. Also, the Japanese Inflation figures have already missed the target of 2.0%. Despite that, JPY April All Industry Activity Index came out at 04:30 GMT. The consensus had estimated the Index to report near 0.7% in place of previous -0.3%. However, the actual reports recorded 0.2% higher than the market expectation.

USD/CHF

The pair continued to follow the tumble rally that initiated on June 19 at 1.0013 levels. The USD/CHF pair had made the opening today near 0.9925 levels. At 17:00 GMT, the pair was testing the 0.9792 support levels last touched on January 14. The Switzerland May Trade Balance reported 540 million higher than the market hopes of around 2,870 million. Meanwhile, the Greenback kept plunging following the Fed interest rate decision. As a result, the falling USD Index and the rising CHF kept the downtrend intact in the pair’s movements.

GBP/USD

After marking the day’s opening near 1.2654 levels, the Cable kept hold of the uptrend. The positive sentiment in the GBP/USD pair came mostly out of the Greenback slump. The UK Retail Sales reported mixed figures in the Asian session. The May MoM UK Retail Sales excluding Fuel came out -0.3% over -0.4% estimates. Anyhow, the YoY Retail data reported 0.4% lower than 2.7% forecasts. However, the gains remained limited near 1.2727 levels.

GBPUSD 60 Min 19 June 2019
GBPUSD 60 Min 19 June 2019

Meantime, Jeremy Hunt would compete with Boris Johnson after Michael Gove got eliminated in the latest ballot. In the middle of the day, BoE decided to keep the interest rates near 0.75%. Following the BoE rate announcement, the pair slipped from the day’s high reaching day’s low of 1.2674 levels.

Forex Daily Recap – USD Index Slipped -0.57% over Unchanged Fed Interest Rates

USD Index

The Greenback kept plunging since the Asian session after marking the day’s high near 97.68 levels. The slump rally came in ahead of the FOMC meeting scheduled at around 18:00 GMT. The market had expected the rates to remain unchanged near 2.5%. Trump had earlier mentioned his stance over his dissatisfaction over Fed’s monetary policies. The President had pressurized the Central Bank multiple times before, urging for an interest rate cut. The USD Index had badly fallen in the first half of the day reaching near 97.39 levels.

US Dollar Index 60 Min 19 June 2019
US Dollar Index 60 Min 19 June 2019

Despite that, positive sentiment over the US-Sino trade dispute helped the market to limit the losses. Representatives of both nations would discuss over resolving the trade problem in the upcoming G20 meeting. At around 18:00 GMT, the Fed Interest rate decision came out. The Central Bank has decided to keep the interest rates unchanged at 2.5%. Following the Fed announcement, the US Dollar Index slipped 0.27%, reaching 97.12 levels.

EUR/USD

The Euro pair opened up on Wednesday near 1.1197 levels and showcased a slight slip in the early hours. The initial plunge came after the release of weak German May MoM PPI figures. The German PPI reported -0.1% over 0.2% forecast, lowering investor interest. Somehow, the Fiber took support near 1.1187 levels and made a reversal in the overall trend. The EUR/USD pair then soared 0.30% reaching 1.1221 levels amid Greenback fall. The USD Index had dropped significantly ahead of the Fed Interest rate decision. The consensus had expected the rates to remain unchanged at 2.5% this time. Meanwhile, the Eurozone April Current Account reported €19.2 billion over €10.6 billion estimates.

GBP/USD

The Cable continued the previous day’s uptrend into today’s trading session. Last day’s poor performance in the USD Index had triggered the positive trend in the pair. On Wednesday, the GBP economic docket displayed some pleasing reports elevating the pair. The May MoM Retail Price Index reported 0.1% higher than 0.2% estimates. Also, May YoY PPI – Input came in higher than market expectation. The Street analysts had hoped the PPI figures to report near 0.8%. Somehow, the reports recorded 0.5% higher than the market forecast.

GBPUSD 60 Min 19 June 2019
GBPUSD 60 Min 19 June 2019

The most significant Inflation indicator – May YoY CPI reported at around 08:30 GMT. The reports remained in-line with the 2.0% estimates. Following such astounding reports, the GBP/USD pair skyrocketed 0.73% touching 1.2636 marks. The falling Greenback had provided the extra support for the elevation in the pair. Meantime, Boris Johnson stands ahead in the Tory leadership race. Boris has secured the backing of around 114 and 126 MPs in the first two ballots.

USD/CAD

Yesterday’s slump rally in the Loonie pair got paused near 1.3363 levels and slightly reversed in today’s session. The pair continued to consolidate in the range of 1.3368/83 levels in the Asian trading session. However, the pair displayed a definite Gap down in the early European session. Robust Canadian data allowed the pair to jump directly from 1.3373 levels to 1.3354 levels. The BoC May YoY CPI data came around 0.9% higher than expectations shocking the investor community. Also, the CPI Core was 0.1% higher than the previous 0.2%. In addition to the growing Loonie, the falling USD Index added substantial downward pressure on the pair’s movements. Along with all these factors, the EIA Crude report was higher than analyst estimates.

Forex Daily Recap – Fiber Slumped more than -0.47% Following Draghi’s Dovish Statements

AUD/USD

The slump rally that had begun on June 9 got slightly diverted in today’s trading session. The pivotal point for the reversal was 0.6835 levels. The pair had started the day near 0.6855 levels and continued the downtrend. The early slip in the AUD/USD pair came in after the critical release of RBA meeting minutes.

AUDUSD 60 Min 18 June 2019
AUDUSD 60 Min 18 June 2019

The policymakers mentioned that the Bank would opt for reducing the interest rates again. Following such a dovish stance, the AUD/USD pair dropped nearly to the five-month bottom. China and Australia are good trading partners. Meantime, Trump tweeted that “Had a very good telephone conversation with President Xi of China. We will be having an extended meeting next week at the G-20 in Japan. Our respective teams will begin talks prior to our meeting.” Hence, positive news on the US-China trade dispute front allowed the pair to recover the early morning losses. The Aussie pair soared 0.72% reaching day’s high near 0.6882 levels.

EUR/USD

The Euro pair kept the uptrend intact until President Draghi’s dovish stance over the economic growth. Mario mentioned that the Bank would leave the door open for further stimulus, including rate cuts. Hints for such a rate amid lack of improvement in the Eurozone economy hammered the Fiber. The EUR/USD pair suffered a massive plunge dropping more than 0.47% following the ECB President comments. The market reaction took the pair from 1.1242 levels to 1.1189 levels.

Laterwards, the pair continued to maintain a range-bound performance sustaining between 1.1181 and 1.1211 levels. German ZEW Survey June  Economic Sentiment data release shocked the market. Street analysts had expected -5.9 points this time. Anyhow, the reports came as -21.1 points. Also, the Eurozone CPI data was lower than the market expectation. The May MoM CPI data reported 0.1% lower than the consensus estimates of 0.2%. The Eurozone ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment for June also disappointed the market participants. The Sentiment Index came in as -20.2 over -3.6 forecasts.

USD Index

After a small tumble rally in the early hours, the trend in the USD Index reverted near 97.38 levels. From this pivotal reversal point, the Greenback went straight up, touching 97.76 levels. The rise in the US Dollar came in as its major rival – EUR/USD suffered a sharp pullback in the Asian session. The Euro pair had fallen over the dovish economic stance provided by the ECB President Mario Draghi. The stances included probabilities of a rate cut in the near term considering the sluggishness improvement in the Eurozone economy.

US Dollar Index 60 Min 18 June 2019
US Dollar Index 60 Min 18 June 2019

Anyhow, this has lifted the Greenback to 13 days high. In response to Draghi’s commentary, Trump tweeted “Mario Draghi just announced more stimulus could come, which immediately dropped the Euro against the Dollar, making it unfairly easier for them to compete against the USA. They have been getting away with this for years, along with China and others.” Meanwhile, on the economic docket, there was an overall mixed performance. The May MoM Building Permits data reported 2K lower than the consensus estimates of 1.296 million. Despite that, the May MoM Housing Starts published 30K higher than the market hopes of 1.239 million.

USD/CAD

The Loonie pair had made the opening on Tuesday near 1.3409 levels and remained slightly lower initially. Canada is among the largest exporter of Crude Oil. Any fluctuations in the Crude prices have an inverse impact over the pair’s movements. The pair had reached 1.3432 levels at around 10:00 GMT marking day’s high. However, the prices soared 5.8%, reaching the $54.50 per barrel mark in the Asian session. The primary driver was the positive sentiment developed around the US-Sino trade dispute after Trump’s tweets. The US President mentioned about productive talks to happen in the G20 meet, next week.

Forex Daily Recap – GBP Bulls Stood Aside Paving the Way for the Bears

USD Index

The Greenback showcased a high swing performance in the early hours after making the opening near 97.50 levels. The morning gains came in after the Fiber slipped over weak economic data. And, any fall in the rival EUR/USD adds to a definite push in the USD Index. Last week, at the end of a strong uptrend, the Index had managed to mark weekly highs near 97.58 levels. Today, while taking the upward path, the US Dollar Index was testing the same highest point. Fortunately, the act of testing proved worth the effort. At around 07:00 GMT, the Greenback quoted a fresh daily high near 97.60 levels. However, the performance started losing shine after the release of the NY June Empire State Manufacturing Index.

NY June Empire State Manufacturing Index
NY June Empire State Manufacturing Index

The market had expected 10.0 points this time over previous 17.8 points. But, the actual figures came out as -8.6 points, the lowest since October 2017. Such disappointing economic data adds in more pressure for a Fed rate cut in the next few months. Anyhow, the US labor market appeared to remain stronger discounting rate cut probabilities. The market now eyes for the Fed meeting scheduled on Wednesday.

GBP/USD

The Cable made the opening on Monday near 1.2595 bottom levels amid Brexit tensions. The pair had remained consolidated in the early hours lacking direction. However, the GBP/USD pair lost ground at around 05:45 GMT showcasing a downtrend. The decline in the pair got support near 1.2572 levels and reversed the trend. The overall sentiment remained fragile throughout the day as Britishers continued to fear over a hard Brexit.

GBPUSD 60 Min 17 June 2019
GBPUSD 60 Min 17 June 2019

Boris Johnson, former Mayor, and Foreign Secretary stay in front of the Tory Leadership race. Boris has already mentioned that he will take the opportunity to execute Brexit irrespective of a deal. Few other candidates who got through the second ballet came up with soft-Brexit stances. In the meantime, Dominic Raab mentioned of a Brexit idea with a Parliament bypass. Amid such deteriorating sentiment, the pair slipped from 1.2605 levels straight down to 1.2536 levels.

USD/CAD

The pair kept hold onto the 1.3410 top levels as the economic docket weighed lower with lack of significant events. The Crude prices suffered a sharp pullback slumping 2.32% reaching $51.71 per barrel in the early hours. The plunge in the prices amid rising Middle East tensions. The US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that Washington does not want to go to war with Iran. But, the US will take every action necessary, including diplomacy, to guarantee safe navigation in the Middle East. However, the OPEC-led supply cuts helped the commodity to choose pickup, rebounding from $51.77 bbl reaching $52.48 bbl. Anyhow, the disappointing US data kept the downward pressure intact over the pair’s movements. Despite that, Canadian April Foreign Portfolio Investment reported $-12.80 billion over the previous $-1.56 billion. Today, the USD/CAD pair mainly remained consolidated near 1.3410 levels except a small dip rebounding from 1.3392 levels.

EUR/USD

Following Friday’s closing on a lower note near 1.1205 levels, the pair showed some functional recovery today.

EURUSD 60 Min 17 June 2019
EURUSD 60 Min 17 June 2019

The EUR/USD pair marked the day’s highest point near 1.1248 marks in the early European session. Disappointing US data generated a pullback in the Greenback which provided support for Fiber upsurge. Earlier the day, Eurozone Labor Cost for the first quarter came out. The Street analyst had hoped for a 0.3% rise in the data, expecting 2.6% this time. Somehow, the reports remained lower than the estimates but were higher than the previous statistics.

Forex Daily Recap – USD at 9-Day High with Strong Retail Data

USD Index

The Greenback that remained capped under 97.08 levels in the morning showcased a breakthrough in the early European session. The USD Index knocked off 97.44 levels marking 9-days high after the release of robust US data. May Retail Sales Control Group came out at around 12:30 GMT. The market had expected the figures to report an in-line number with the previous 0.4%. Anyhow, the actual reports recorded 0.5%, 0.1% higher than expectations. Also, the MoM May Industrial Production came out as 0.4% in place of 0.2% consensus estimates.

US Dollar Index 60 Min 14 June 2019
US Dollar Index 60 Min 14 June 2019

However, the speed of Greenback upliftment slowed down as the June Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index missed forecasts. The Street analysts had expected the Sentiment Index to report as 98.0 over previous 100.0. But, the reports were slightly lower than estimates reporting near 97.9. Today’s positive US data seemed to mitigate the speculations over a probable Fed rate cut.

EUR/USD

After sliding for three days in a row, the Euro pair touched the 7-days bottom mark. The plunge in the EUR/USD pair came after the immediate USD Index upsurge. The pair had made the opening on Friday near 1.1279 levels. Laterwards, the Fiber showcased a fake upside move touching 1.1290 levels in the early hours. However, a slump rally was no far, and the pair started slipping over poor Euro-specific data release. German May Wholesale Price Index reported below estimates. Also, Italian Industrial data and CPI figures recorded weaker reports. During the early European session, higher-than-estimated US data added more downward pressure on the pair. The Fiber dropped 0.66%, reaching near 1.1214 levels at around 16:03 GMT.

USD/JPY

The Ninja initiated trading today near 108.32 levels and remained quite silent in the early hours. The USD/JPY pair slightly went south laterwards after the release of Japanese April Capacity Utilization data. This data reported 1.4% higher than the consensus estimates of around 0.2%.  In addition to that, the April YoY Industrial Production data was in-line with the market expectation of about -1.1%.

USDJPY 60 Min 14 June 2019
USDJPY 60 Min 14 June 2019

Later the day, the US Retail Sales figures and Industrial Production data reported above the market hopes. Following sound US economic data, the USD/JPY pair displayed a significant jump from 108.20 levels to 108.50 levels. Also, the US 10-year bond yields appeared to recover from the earlier incurred losses remaining flat for the day.

USD/CNY

The Chinese Yuan pair continued to maintain the uptrend started on June 12. The pair had begun day’s trading session near 6.9217 levels. And, in the late afternoon session, the pair was taking rounds near 6.9255 levels marking day’s high. The pair was testing this intense resistance levels but failed to do so. Mixed Chinese data released at around 07:00 GMT kept the pair’s positive trend intact. Chinese May YoY Retail Sales reported 8.6% over 8.1% estimates. In the same time, Industrial Production data came out 0.5% lower than the street expectation of 5.5%. Below estimates YTD Fixed Asset Investment added more oil into the upward moving USD/CNY pair. Further upliftments came up with the release of good US May Retail figures.

Forex Daily Recap – Aussie Pair Slipped over Disappointing Job Data

AUD/USD

The Aussie pair made a low swing movement in the early hours following disappointing Australian jobs data. The May Unemployment Rate recorded 5.2% over 5.1% estimates. There was an addition of 42.3K jobs in May. However, significant addition came from Part-time Employment counting to 39.8K. On the other hand, the Full-time jobs added remained merely 2.4K. Following such weak Employment data, the AUD/USD pair slipped from 0.6936 levels reaching 0.6905 levels.

AUDUSD 60 Min 13 June 2019
AUDUSD 60 Min 13 June 2019

At around 12:30 GMT, the US Initial Jobless Claims reported 6K higher than the 216K estimates. Also, the US May YoY Import Price Index recorded -1.5% in comparison to 0.4% estimates. The pair remained sustained within 0.6902/18 range levels in the later part of the day.

USD/CAD

The pair had reached the weekly high near 1.3345 levels yesterday, gaining more than 70 pips in one go. Unfortunately today, in the morning session, the Loonie pair lost almost 50% gains attained amid crude price upshot. Oil prices rose around 3.8% in the early hours as two Saudi Oilers got attacked in the Gulf of Oman. The tankers got sabotaged while passing from near-by the Iranian coast. Hence, speculators drew similarities between the earlier attacks and today’s attacks, focusing spotlight over Iran. Also, Japanese PM Abe visited Iran today when the attacks took place. And, Trump calls him as a friend. However, as of now, the case remains unsolved. Later the day, weak US Unemployment data took control over the USD/CAD pair and continued the plunge rally. Somehow, the pair was recovering in the afternoon taking a bounce from 1.3300 levels.

GBP/USD

After marking the day’s opening near 1.2694, the Cable was trading near 1.2679 at 16:00 GMT. The pair remained slightly subdued as there were no GBP-specific events in the docket today. The race for the UK Prime Ministership continued. Recent reports suggested that Boris Johnson has won the first ballot. Boris had already mentioned that he would at any cost (with/without a deal) make happen Brexit on October 31. Britishers fear his hardliner Brexit.

GBPUSD 60 Min 13 June 2019
GBPUSD 60 Min 13 June 2019

The GBP/USD pair slipped as Greenback gathered momentum over rate cut hopes as the US Jobless Claims missed estimates. Investors eye Fed’s meeting scheduled for next week expecting a rate cut. The pair was heading south at around 16:14 GMT as Boris led the Tory leadership race.

USD Index

The Greenback had initiated the trading session on Thursday near 96.96 levels. There was a slight downfall in the early hours as German May CPI figures came in-line with the consensus estimates. Hence, the US Dollar Index declined further marking day’s low near 96.88 levels. Quite surprisingly, the Index gained momentum following lower-than-expected Jobless Claim figures and trade data. Continuous Jobless Claims computed since May 31 reported 1.695 million over 1.680 million forecasts. However, investors remained optimistic over probable Fed rate cuts in the near term with today’s poor US data. Recently, May CPI figures also showcased mixed reports. In the same time frame of 12:30 GMT, the US May trade indexes came out with numbers below estimates. With gathered optimism, the USD Index touched the daily high near 97.08 levels at around 15:00 GMT.

Forex Daily Recap – Higher Probability of Rate Cut with Missed CPI Estimates

USD Index

The Greenback had slipped from 97.16 levels on last Friday amid poor May Non-Farm Payrolls and Average Earnings data. Until today, the US Dollar Index remained stuck below 97 levels. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release was the key highlight for Wednesday, which came out at around 12:30 GMT. Market participants were eagerly waiting for these significant reports as the outcome would strengthen the Fed’s rate cut possibilities. Street analysts had expected the May YoY CPI that excluded Food & Energy to remain in-line with the previous 2.1%. Anyhow, the data came out 0.1% lower than the market expectation, reporting 2.0% this time. The May MoM CPI excluding Food & Energy also missed estimates. In the middle of such weak reports, MoM CPI came in-line with the consensus estimation of around 0.1%. Meantime, the May CPI Core recorded 0.11% higher than the previous 261.735 figures.

Consumer Price Index 12 Jun 2019
Consumer Price Index 12 Jun 2019

On an overall basis, the May CPI data showcased mixed reports. Fed Chairman Powell had earlier mentioned that the Bank would take up appropriate steps in case of an economic slowdown. Hence, the mixed CPI data would pressurize the Central Bank to make a rate cut happen sooner. On the other side, the US-China trade dispute continued to damage world businesses. Trump and Xi would meet up in the G20 Meeting about to happen by month end to discuss trade settlements. Coming back to USD Index’s performance, the Greenback marked the weekly low near 96.59 levels following CPI data release. Despite that, the Index took an immediate pickup and knocked off 96.80 levels. The Market seems to remain fingers crossed awaiting a near-by Fed rate cut.

EUR/USD

After starting trading on Wednesday near 1.1329 levels, the pair seemed to remain negative as the day approached closing. The Fiber had displayed a slowly phased uptrend in the Asian session marking day’s high near 1.1343 levels. The slight early upliftment had occurred on the backdrop of mixed Euro-specific data release. The France Q1 QoQ Non-Farm Payrolls came out 0.2% higher than the market hopes of around 0.3%. Also, Spanish May HICP and CPI data reported in-line with the consensus estimates.

EURUSD 60 Min 12 June 2019
EURUSD 60 Min 12 June 2019

ECB President Mario Draghi commented today that Central and Eastern Europe remains vulnerable to the trade war headwinds. Draghi’s warnings left the Fiber traders unnerved and kept the pair plunging. Later the day, ECB’s Coeure mentioned that the Bank’s  Asset Purchase Programme (APP) was a good source of financial easing. At around 16:50 GMT, the EUR/USD pair was testing the healthy 1.1291 resistance levels, marking daily low.

USD/CAD

The Loonie pair was trading 0.21% up in the late European session amid mixed CPI data and lowered Crude prices. The US CPI figures reported lower-than-expected while the CPI Core data revealed some bullish numbers. Meanwhile, the commodity prices reduced from $52.31 bbl, reaching $51.60 bbl after the release of disappointing EIA reports. The Market had expected a -0.481 million this time. Somehow, the actual reports showed up as 2.206 million showing lack of demand for the commodity. Hence, the USD/CAD pair maintained good growth today, quoting the day’s high near 1.1316 levels.

USD/CNY

The Yuan pair marked the day’s opening near 6.9098 levels buckling up for some descent upliftments. The Chinese May CPI and PPI data came out in-line with the market expectations elevating USD/CNY pair. The YoY CPI reported near 2.7% higher than the previous 2.5%. Meanwhile, the MoM CPI recorded 0.0% over the last 0.1%. The USD/CNY pair touched 6.9222 levels marking day’s high following early morning Chinese data. Laterwards, in the rest of the Asian session, the pair appeared giving up the accumulated gains reaching 6.9132 levels.

USDCNY 60 Min 12 June 2019
USDCNY 60 Min 12 June 2019

However, the pair took a U-turn after the release of lower-than-expected May YoY M2 Money Supply data. In addition to that, the Chinese May New Loans recorded 1,180 billion over 1,225 billion forecasts. Anyhow, this time, the pair could lift itself only till 6.9214 levels. When the mixed US CPI figures came out, the pair seemed to drop 0.02% reaching 6.9168 levels.

Forex Daily Recap – Cable Expedited as UK Wages Data Beat Estimates

USD Index

The Greenback started trading on Tuesday near 96.73 levels and remained quite flat throughout the day. The Index marked the day’s high near 96.87 levels while day’s low near 96.68 levels. The US Index stood slightly subdued amid Trump’s intervention in the nation’s monetary policy. Trump tweeted today, aiming the Euros and other devalued currencies that the “US Dollar is at a big disadvantage”. This statement came up after the Fed Chief Powell had hinted last week, the probable likelihood of a rate cut. Powell had mentioned that the Bank would take appropriate steps in case of an economic slowdown. The President also added that the Fed interest rates are way too high. Earlier US Presidents had stayed distanced themselves from the Central Bank. However, Trump has broken the precedent set by the former leaders, breaking Fed’s political independence. In the European session, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) came out. The May MoM PPI excluding Food and Energy recorded 2.3% in-line with the market hopes. Anyhow, the PPI figures remain 0.1% lower than the previous 2.4%.

GBP/USD

After making the opening near 1.2691 levels, the Cable showcased a small correction that reverted from 1.2670 levels. The pair managed to perform a break-through the healthy resistance level near 1.2725 marks. The upliftment in the GBP/USD pair came after the release of positive Earnings data. UK 3Mo/Yr April Average Earnings excluding Bonus reported 0.3% over the consensus estimates of 3.1%. Also, the crucial UK April ILO Unemployment Rate came in-line with the market estimates of 3.8%.

GBPUSD 60 Min 11 June 2019
GBPUSD 60 Min 11 June 2019

Traders also witnessed some weak UK data at around 08:30 GMT. The UK May Claimant Count Change recorded 23.2K over 22.9K estimates. However, the Cable shrugged to the Claimant data and kept up the uptrend. Such optimistic results in the middle of uncertain Brexit tensions appeared as a boon to the Cable. Laterwards, weak US PPI data compressed the Greenback gains thereby helping its rival Cable upsurge. At 17:00 GMT, the pair was testing 1.2730 resistance levels but failed to breach it.

NZD/USD

The Kiwi pair extended the previous day’s downward rally into today’s trading session. The NZD/USD pair had triggered the downtrend on June 7 near 0.6681 levels. The pair made the opening near 0.6611 levels and continued slipping throughout the day. At around 12:30 GMT, the pair took a break from the downtrend. The pair shifted slightly upwards, breaking the negative trend. The Kiwi pair had found some strong support near 0.6569 levels, marking daily or 5-days low. Overnight New Zealand Q1 Manufacturing Sales data impacted the pair’s movements in the initial hours. The data reported 2% in-line with the consensus estimates as well as the prior figures. The pair was trading near 0.6585 levels at around 17:12 GMT, on track of recovery.

EUR/USD

The Euro pair remained higher as investors appeared to shift from the risky US Dollar Index. The fear came after the Trump mentioned Euro in his tweets today.

EURUSD 60 Min 11 June 2019
EURUSD 60 Min 11 June 2019

Trump called Euro as “devalued” and added that the US Dollar is at a big disadvantage here. Meanwhile, Bank of Finland governor and ECB governing council member Olli Rehn reiterated on rate cuts. The Officials also addressed to restart the Quantitative easing soon. The EUR/USD pair managed to mark daily high near 1.1337 levels breaking 1.1333 resistance levels. Technicals showed the uptrend in the pair to continue in the coming sessions.

Forex Daily Recap – Yuan Pair Oscillating Near Three-Month Top

USD/CNY

The Yuan pair remained oscillating near the three month top mark on the back of mixed economic Chinese data. The jump observed in the pair’s movements on Friday had lifted the USD/CNY pair to 6.9232 levels. Before that, the pair was trading, maintaining a range bound approach between 6.9171and 6.8950 levels. Today, the pair managed hold grip over the top levels and also tested 6.9357 sound resistance levels. However, the pair failed to make a breakthrough and remained capped within the 6.9357 marks. At around 02:00 GMT, Chinese trade data came out. May CNY YoY Imports report recorded 7.8% lower than 15.5% forecasts. Also, the exports data for the same period came out as -2.5% over 15.9% estimates. Anyhow, the May Trade Balance USD was slightly higher-than-estimates reporting near $41.65 billion over $20.50 billion expectation.

USD Index

The Greenback showed some recovery price actions on Monday trading session. The Index had dropped last week over weaker Employment data and Average Hourly Earnings reports. The USD Index made the opening today near 96.71 levels and kept trending upwards throughout the day. The Index marked the day’s high near 96.93 levels. Investors seemed to lose interest over rivals like the Cable, Euro, and Yen.

Trade war tensions between the US and Mexico lowered as Trump took back his threat to impose Mexican tariffs. An ease in the trade conditions drastically improved the overall market sentiment. On the economic event front, the April JOLTS Job Openings reported higher than market estimates. The Job Openings data came out as 7.449 million over 7.240 million expectations. Such positive employment data provided a boost to the Greenback. Nevertheless, the US Dollar Index was trading near 96.79 levels at around 16:43 GMT.

US Dollar Index 60 Min 10 June 2019
US Dollar Index 60 Min 10 June 2019

USD/MXN

During the weekend session, the Mexican Peso pair showcased a Gap-Down opening. The pair had started on Sunday near 19.3027 levels over the previous closing of 19.6193 levels. The slump in the USD/MXN pair developed as Peso currency uplifted more than 2% over the optimistic US-Mexico trade deal. President Trump took the Mexican tariffs intended to increase every month off the table on Sunday gradually. Over to the movements, the pair attempted to breach the robust resistance line near 19.3059 levels two times today. Anyhow, the pair lacked the desired energy to knock off the healthy resistance levels. On the downside, the USD/MXN pair found critical support near 19.1372 levels multiple times on Monday. Trump proclaims his win over the counterpart Mexico with the help of tariffs. President also added that threat to impose tariffs allowed the deal to happen within two days. In the agreement, Mexico ensures decreasing the overall illegal immigration issue in the US.

EUR/USD

Investors seem to lose confidence over the Euro pair and slowly shift towards currently safe-haven USD Index. The negative sentiment had developed around the pair following ECB’s last week announcement. The policymakers mentioned that the Bank would cut rate if an economic slowdown takes place.

EURUSD 60 Min 10 June 2019
EURUSD 60 Min 10 June 2019

The pair started trading today near 1.1321 levels and went drowning in the Asian session. The early tumble in the EUR/USD pair found significant support near 1.1290 levels and kept rebounding from the same point. There remained hardly any EUR-specific event today to deviate the pair’s movements on account of Whit Monday holiday. Meantime, the GBP/USD stumbled over adverse UK Manufacturing and Industrial data.

Forex Daily Recap – US Employment Data Confirming Fed Rate Cut Possibility

USD Index

Traders had developed a slight optimism around the Buck in the Asian session on EUR/USD fall. The US Dollar had dived down away from 97 levels in the last two sessions. But, the Index managed to rebound after striking 96.80 levels. Anyhow, the pair couldn’t find support near 96.80 levels today. The tumble rally took the Greenback towards week’s lowest vicinity marking daily/weekly low near 96.47 levels.

The USD-specific influencing events came out at 12:30 GMT. The US May Non-Farm Payrolls broadcasted 75K figures over the 185K market expectations. Hence, a fewer number of jobs created last month shows strong signs of weakness in the economy. The market now expects the Fed to come up with a rate cut earlier this year mostly by July. The Average YoY Hourly Earnings came out 0.1% lower than the market hope of 3.2%. May Labor Force Participation Rate also mentioned poor figures further weakening the Greenback.

US Dollar Index 60 Min 07 June 2019
US Dollar Index 60 Min 07 June 2019

EUR/USD

The Euro pair had started trading on Friday session near 1.1276 levels and continued the upward rally crossing 1.1300 levels. The pair displayed a slight downshift in the early hours amid adverse Switzerland and German data. At around 05:45 GMT, the Swiss May MoM Unemployment Rate came out in-line with the market expectation of 2.4%. Laterwards, German April YoY Industrial Production data reported -1.9% over -0.4% estimates. The slow degradation in the EUR/USD pair continued as German April Trade Balance reported €1.6 Billion lower than the €18.6 Billion estimates. After touching the pivotal 1.1251 levels, the pair shifted gears and took the upward journey. The positivity in the Fiber appeared after the release of sparse USD data. The US reported lower-than-expected May Non-Farm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings. As the Euro currency makes up the 50% portion in the USD Index, the Fiber shot up on Greenback failure. The EUR/USD pair got elevated and marked the daily high near 1.1347 levels. From the weekly point of view, the pair remains almost 1.58% higher over last week closing mark.

USD/MXN

The Mexican Peso pair managed to uptrend after making the Friday opening near 19.6683 levels in the Asian trading session. The positive trend in the pair attempted twice to breach the 19.7890 resistance levels twice today. However, the pair couldn’t make a breakthrough instead cooled down to 19.5606 low levels. US President continued to remain stubborn over imposing 5% Mexican tariffs from Monday. Trump warned that the taxes would increment each month, reaching 25% by October.

USDMXN 60 Min 07 June 2019
USDMXN 60 Min 07 June 2019

Anyhow, Mexican President Lopez Obrador stays optimistic about retaliating soon and points over Trump’s mistake to link trade with migrants. Mexico would likely use China’s tactic of a tit-for-tat trade war with the US counterpart. Seeing the countries battling with trade tariffs Russian President Vladimir Putin accused the US today of “unbridled economic egoism”

 

USD/CAD

After making the opening on Friday trading session near 1.3353 levels, the USD/CAD pair remained sustained within 1.3343/68 range. However, the pair lost hold of the range-bound phase later as adverse US events came out. The Loonie pair slipped straight from 1.3365 levels landing near 1.3264 levels. The fall in the pair developed after the release of lower-than-estimated US May Non-Farm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings. The Greenback touched the three-month low mark of 96.46 levels today.

Meanwhile, the Crude Oil prices upsurged 2% on Friday’s session, marking day’s high near $54.31 bbl. The upliftment in the commodity came up over multiple reasons. First, the OPEC member Saudi addressed that they would continue with supply cuts through the rest of the year. Second, the Market expectation over Fed rate cuts got stronger after the release of weak US Employment data. A Fed rate would weaken the Greenback and would strengthen the Crude demand among buyers possessing other currencies.

Forex daily Recap – USD/INR Declined on Interest Rate Cut Announcement

USD/INR

The Rupee pair started trading on Thursday near 69.64 levels and was hovering near 69.19 levels at around 15:31 GMT. The pair showcased a smooth decline throughout the day in the middle of Central Bank rate cut. The RBI announced a reduction in the interest rates by 25 bps, making the repo rate to 5.75%. The Bank also changed its stance from “neutral” to “accommodative”, leaving space for more upcoming rate cuts.

USDINR 60 Min 06 June 2019
USDINR 60 Min 06 June 2019

RBI Policymakers have reduced the repo rate for third straight time. Meanwhile, the Officials also slashed the GDP growth forecast. The Bank decreased the forecast figures from the previous 7.2% to 7.0% as inflation stays below 4% target. The Central Bank has taken this stance of the rate cut to increase the overall liquidity in the market, considering the macroeconomic factors.

USD Index

The Greenback was taking rounds near its one-month lows as US Unemployment data and Trade Balance reported poor figures. The US Dollar Index made the opening today near 97.31 levels and initiated the downward rally. Bears started taking control over the Buck after the release of lower-than-expected USD-specific data. The April Trade Balance recorded $-50.8 Billion over $-50.7 Billion forecasts. Both the Continuing Jobless Claims computed since May 24, and Initial Jobless Claims calculated since May 31 reported higher-than-estimated. Also, the Q1 Non-Farm Productivity came out 0.1% lower than the market expectation of 3.5%. Adding to the sour sentiment, Q1 Unit Labor Costs reported -1.6% in place of consensus estimates of -0.8%. The USD Index marked the day’s lowest point near 96.79 levels following such adverse US reports. The Index attempted to recover strength but failed to do so as Fed’s Kaplan mentioned his dovish stance for the economic outlook.

USD/MXN

Mexican Peso pair stayed near its monthly high amid rising US tariff concerns over Mexican exports. Last day, the US Officials had set a meeting with the Mexican counterpart over the 5% tariffs imposed on all the exports of Mexico. US President tweeted that the meeting showed “not nearly enough” progress. Trump reiterated that the taxes would continue to increase by 5% every month, culminating to 25% in October this year. The President puts his demand to curb illegal immigration into the US territory as a solution to the eradicate tariffs.

USDMXN 60 Min 06 June 2019
USDMXN 60 Min 06 June 2019

Meantime, Mexican economists smell a near-by recession out of a probable debt crisis. Credit rating agency Fitch downgraded Mexico’s sovereign debt previous day. Moody’s also reduced their overall economic outlook to negative, adding further pressure to the Mexican Peso. Nevertheless, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador stood quite positive of getting into a deal with the US. The President prepares a list of US products and plans for retaliation against the United States.

EUR/USD

The Euro pair started the day near the 1.1236 bottom levels. The pair remained close to the same opening levels throughout the Asian trading session. Following the release of German April MoM Factory Orders, the EUR/USD pair gradually took pickup. The German data came out near 0.3% over the market expectation of 0.1%. The pair shrugged to the in-line reported Eurozone Q1 QoQ Employment Change figures. However, the Euro pair reacted positively to the Eurozone Interest rate decision reporting 0.0% in-line with the estimates. The pair jumped from 1.1219 levels to 1.1272 levels at around 11:45 GMT. The EUR/USD pair made further upliftments amid weaker US Unemployment and trade data. The pair marked the day’s high near 1.1310 levels.

Forex Daily Recap – Euro Slides as EU Plans to Start Infringement Procedure Against Italy

USD Index

The Greenback was showing good signs of recovery in the Asian trading session, moving upwards breaking 97.08 resistance mark. The USD Index had gained strength out of the plunging EUR/USD pair, which makes up 50% of the Index. The Buck marked the day’s high near 97.15 levels at around 12:00 GMT. France May Markit PMI Composite recorded 51.2 over 51.3 forecasts. However, most of the Euro-specific data came out positive laterwards. There was a massive slump observed in the US Dollar Index at 12:15 GMT when the ADP May Employment data got released. The Employment Change recorded 27K in comparison to the market expectation of 180K.

US Dollar Index 60 Min 05 June 2019
US Dollar Index 60 Min 05 June 2019

Following the release of such appalling reports, the Index slipped 0.30% landing near 96.76 levels. Nevertheless, ISM May Non-Manufacturing PMI reported 2.52% over the consensus estimates of 55.5 points. Also, the US May Markit PMI Composite and Services PMI were in-line with the Street expectation. Hence, from the then lowest levels, the Index took a slight pickup reaching near 97.06 levels.

EUR/USD

Fiber displayed a see-sawed performance throughout the day. The May Markit PMI and Services data for France, Spain, Italy, Germany, and Eurozone came out today. Most of the Markit data reflected positive data. Notably, the reports for the European Monetary Union recorded 51.8 points over to the 51.6 points forecasts. There were also some adverse Eurozone data in the middle of the day. Both the MoM and YoY Eurozone April Producer Price Index reported lower-than-expectation. The EUR/USD pair kept showing rigorous volatility with such release of each report. The pair gained in the European session when the USD Index bowed down over weak Employment data. At around 12:15 GMT, the Euro pair marked the day’s high near 1.1306 levels, 0.46% up since the last closing. The pair started falling from the top levels as reports suggested the EU would start infringement procedures against Italy.

AUD/USD

The Aussie pair took a U-turn today amid poor Australian and Chinese data. In the early hours, the Aussie QoQ Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reported 0.4% over 0.5% estimates. Along with the QoQ data, the Q1 YoY GDP came out in-line with the market expectation of 1.8%. China and Antipodeans have good trade relations. Any changes in the Chinese counterpart significantly impacts the Aussie Dollar too.

AUDUSD 60 Min 05 June 2019
AUDUSD 60 Min 05 June 2019

Today, at around 01:45 GMT, Caixin May Services PMI reported 52.7 in place of 54.3 estimates. The Aussie Dollar had already started the plunge rally after RBA’s rate cut yesterday. RBA policymakers had reduced the interest rates to 1.25% over the previous 1.50%. The late plunge was also due to the drop in the USD Index over poor Employment data. After opening near 0.6989 levels, the AUD/USD pair was trading near 0.6971 levels, 0.26% down for the day.

USD/CAD

The Loonie pair started trading on Wednesday near 1.3391 levels and continued the last day’s downtrend until 10:15 GMT. After touching the pivotal mark near 1.3361 levels, day’s low, the pair took on the upward movement. Meanwhile, the Oil prices slumped after EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change computed since May 31 came out. The EIA reports recorded 6.771 Million over -0.849 Million. Following reports, the Crude Oil Futures dropped 5.43% reaching near $50.64 bbl. In the middle of the day, CAD Q1 QoQ Labor Productivity reported in-line with the Street analysts hope of 0.3%. With falling Fiber, the Greenback started recovering from the earlier incurred losses. And, with the rising USD Index, the USD/CAD pair also took the north flight.

Forex Daily Recap – USD Index Fell 0.5% over Lowest PMI figures since September 2009

USD Index

The Greenback had started slumping since May 31 over Fed rate cut fears. The market expected such a rate, seeing the rising 3M-10Y Yield Curve. Today, the Index opened up near the 97.62 bottom levels. In the earlier hours, the USD Index made a good upturn pleasing the investor community. The Index had reached near 97.80 levels or 0.18% up, marking the daily high. However, the weak Greenback failed to hold the morning gains for long and lost over in-line Euro-specific data.

US Dollar Index 60 Min 03 June 2019
US Dollar Index 60 Min 03 June 2019

Adding to the sour sentiment, the US May Markit Manufacturing PMI reported 50.5 over 50.6 estimates. The Index dropped further as ISM May Manufacturing PMI also missed forecasts. Though ISM May Prices Paid recorded 2.3% higher than the market expectation of 52 points, the Buck continued the downtrend. The USD Index marked the day’s low near 97.49 levels. Any fresh headline from the US-China trade front would have impaired the Buck more severely.

AUD/USD

The Aussie pair made a grand opening near 0.6940 levels conquering fresh monthly highs. The pair continues to stay in uptrend mode since the last day of May. Few lower-than-expected AUD data came out in the early hours. TD Securities May MoM Inflation reported 0.0% over last recorded 0.2%. Also, the Street analysts had hoped the Q1 QoQ Company Gross Operating Profits to report 0.2% higher than the prior 2.8%. Anyhow, actual reports came near 1.7% shocking the market. The pair kept on moving upwards despite such poor AUD events. The Antipodean received further elevation following the release of the Caixin May Manufacturing PMI data. The Chinese PMI reported 50.2 over 50.0 estimates, pushing the AUD/USD pair to 0.6958 levels. Laterwards there was a small correction in the pair’s performance. However, the Aussie pair rallied in the European session over Greenback weakness.

USD/CAD

The USD/CAD pair followed the Greenback’s path and lost most of the last week accumulated gains in Monday’s session. After making the opening near 1.3514 levels, the USD/CAD pair kept plunging throughout the day. Canadian dollar shattered over trade concerns.

USDCAD 60 Min 03 June 2019
USDCAD 60 Min 03 June 2019

Trump’s latest 5% tariffs on all the Mexican goods coming to the US, created havoc among the Loonie Investors. However, any fresh headline on that front helped the pair to limit daily losses. On the events front, Canadian May Markit Manufacturing PMI reported 50.5 over 50.6 estimates. Further adverse reports from the US side sharply hammered the pair, making it drop near 1.3460 levels. Meanwhile, the Crude Oil prices remained in the lower price range of $52.50/54.50 bbl amid trade tensions and recession fears.

EUR/USD

The Fiber sleeves up and heads north in the start of June as Greenback bows down. The EUR/USD pair marked the opening near 1.1173 levels and crossed the 1.1200 psychological level. Amid some sound reports, the pair touched the day’s high near 1.1221 levels in the evening session. Earlier the day, the Switzerland May YoY Consumer Price Index reported in-line with the market hopes of 0.6%.

Moreover, France, Germany, and the European Monetary Union also provided in-line Manufacturing PMI data this time. Notably, the Italian PMI data was quite above-the-consensus reporting near 49.7 over 48.6 forecasts. Falling USD Index provided an extra boost to the overall performance of the strong rival Euro.

Forex Daily Recap – Yet Another Disappointing Session for the Fiber

EUR/USD

Fiber continued suffering pullbacks on Thursday’s trading session, though minor ones. The EUR/USD pair marked a fresh weekly low near 1.1117 levels in the European session. On account of Ascension Day, the Banks in Germany, Switzerland, and France remained closed throughout the day. However, from the EU side, HICP and CPI data came out for Spain at 07:00 GMT. The May HICP MoM and YoY figures reported lower than market expectation. Whereas, the May CPI showed reports above consensus for monthly data and yearly data missed estimates. Anyhow, there appeared less impact from these low volatile event outcomes on the pair’s movements.

EURUSD 60 Min 30 May 2019
EURUSD 60 Min 30 May 2019

The significant move occurred after the release of positive US Unemployment data. With Continuing Jobless Claims computed since May 17 reporting a lower-than-expected figure, the Fiber lost traction and slipped. The pair then precisely dropped from 1.1141 levels to 1.1118 levels. Fortunately, the EUR/USD pair got a helping hand laterwards on the back of weak US Pending Home Sales data. The pair was trading near 1.1137 levels at around 16:54 GMT.

AUD/USD

The Aussie pair marked yet another disappointing trading session on Thursday. After opening near 0.6921 levels today, the pair had displayed an excellent upward drift in the morning hours. The market expected the April Aussie MoM Building Permits to report 0.0% to the previous -13.4%. However, the actual reports turned out to a negative figure, i.e., 4.7%. Following such a release, the pair made the day’s first slump from 0.6929 levels to 0.6919 levels. In the next couple of morning hours, the pair kept fluctuating between 0.6937 levels and 0.6927 levels as a consequence of AUD-specific events. The pair lost ground in the European session as Greenback elevated on positive Unemployment data. AUD/USD pair had then touched the bottom near 0.6900 levels, marking daily low.

USD/CAD

The Loonie pair had started the week near 1.3437 levels, and the pair was at the monthly high yesterday. Anyhow the weekly gains appeared to evaporate since last day’s North American session. The pair extended the same plunge rally into today’s session dropping near 1.3483 levels. High Crude prices over lower-than-expected API Weekly Oil Stockpile data pushed the Loonie up. Nevertheless, there was an opposite reaction on the USD/CAD pair making it slip. The fall in the pair received a stoppage when US Unemployment data showed positive reports.

USDCAD 60 Min 30 May 2019
USDCAD 60 Min 30 May 2019

Further gains of the Loonie pair remained capped amid weak US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data. At around 15:00 GMT, the EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change calculated since May 24, reported higher figures than the market estimates. The Street had hoped the EIA reports to come around -0.857 million. Somehow, the actual reports revealed -0.282 million. The Loonie pair made a ten pips jump following the Crude sparse data.

US Dollar Index

The Greenback continued to sustain near healthy 98 levels throughout the day and holds its current safe-haven position. The Index had made the day’s opening near 98.12 levels and was trading near the same levels at 17:35 GMT. Earlier the day, the Index found strength out of its falling rivals. The US Dollar Index had then touched the day’s first high near 98.22 levels. However, the gains were short-lived and dropped again to the opening levels amid some positive Spain data. Buck’s second move in the European session was instead a stronger one, allowing it to knock off weekly top levels. The Continuing Jobless Claims computed since May 17 reported 5K lower than expectation boosting the Greenback gains. Meanwhile, US April MoM Pending Home Sales recorded -1.5% over 0.9% estimates. This Home Sales data at last brought down the Greenback again to the opening levels.

Forex Daily Recap – Kiwi Pair Slipped 0.61% Following Risk-Revealing RBNZ Statements

NZD/USD

After maintaining a range bound performance until yesterday, the Kiwi pair slipped off the cliff in the morning hours. The sudden plunge in the pair came up following risk revealing RBNZ statement. The Bank mentioned that the escalating US-Sino trade tensions could have a significant impact on the Global economy. In case of an economic slowdown, New Zealand might lose ground to its financial stability. On the other side of the equation, the US Dollar was conquering new heights, putting more downward pressure on the pair. As a result, the NZD/USD pair lost traction and touched the weekly low near 0.6505 levels.

EUR/USD

Fiber had a grand start on Monday from the 1.12 handle. However, a combination of adverse reports and global cues had tweaked the pair making it drop throughout the week. The EUR/USD pair initiated trading on Wednesday morning near 1.1165 levels, but the plunge rally continued. The Fiber lost almost 37 pips during the day on the backdrop of weak EUR-specific economic data and the poor German Bond yields. Traders went upset as German May Unemployment Change recorded 60K over -8K estimates.

EURUSD 60 Min 30 May 2019
EURUSD 60 Min 30 May 2019

Moreover, the Greenback remained elevated amid the optimistic US macroeconomic data. This time, the Redbook Index (Both MoM & YoY) came out higher-than-expectation, boosting the Greenback. Hence, laterwards, the robust growing US Dollar Index pushed down the EUR/USD pair onto its bottom levels.

USD/CAD

The Loonie pair touched top monthly levels near 1.3545 marks in the European session. The strong uptrend had received strength over the drastically falling Crude prices. The commodity was trading near its two months low levels, pricing at around $56.93 per barrel. The Crude prices fell over a Chinese Commentary that showed caveat to the US of losing the rare earth supply. Rare earth materials find usage in a wide range of consumer products and electronic devices. According to a US Geological Survey, the US had imported around 80% of its rare earth materials from China. Such a potent threat from the Chinese counterpart sent waves of tension in the overall market. Crude prices went down as investors focussed on the demand side of the picture. If the US-China trade dispute tends to worsen, a global economic slowdown will remain imminent, bringing down the Oil demand. However, the beneficiary out of the Crude price slump was the USD/CAD pair.

Meanwhile, BoC left the interest rates unchanged as per the market expectation.

US Dollar Index

Despite the US-Sino trade worries, the Buck seemed to overlook the unofficial Chinese threat. The US Dollar continued to rise, marking day’s high near 98.20 levels. The major credit for the Wednesday upliftment in the Greenback goes to the EUR/USD pair plunge. The Fiber constitutes around 50% of the overall USD Index. Hence, any fluctuation in either one would have an inverse impact on the other one. The Greenback benefitted the most after the release of lower-than-expected German May Unemployment figures.

US Dollar Index 60 Min 30 May 2019
US Dollar Index 60 Min 30 May 2019

Over to the event side, there was hardly any significant USD-specific event today to impact its movements. However, there remained a few low volatile US events having less influence on the Buck. MBA Mortgage Applications computed since May 24 reported -3.3% over 2.4% estimates. Redbook Index (May 24) came up with positive data while May Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index reported negative data.

Forex Daily Recap – US Consumer Index Surprised Market Reporting 134.1 v/s 130 Forecasts

US Dollar Index

The Greenback continues to stay underway recovery since the big plunge on May 23. The USD Index made the day’s opening near 97.72 levels and was facing north. Mixed European Events made the Index keep fluctuating in the Asian trading session. The most notable one was the Eurozone May Business Climate that reported 0.10 points lower than the estimates. The US Dollar Index had marked the day’s low near 97.70 levels. Laterwards, the Greenback recovered the earlier losses on the backdrop of positive USD data.

US Dollar Index 60 Min 28 May 2019
US Dollar Index 60 Min 28 May 2019

The March YoY S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices came out 3.7% lower than the February 3.9% figures. The unexpected event for the day was the US Consumer Confidence. The Consensus had estimated 130 points to report this time. Somehow, the May Index recorded 134.1 points. The US April Retail Sales had reported weaker figures. However, it seems like the consumers still expect the economy to show good growth in the near period. The USD Index had touched the day’s high near 97.96 levels simultaneously marking weekly top levels.

EUR/USD

Fiber showcased an overall poor performance on Tuesday’s trading session. The pair had slight upliftments in the early hours as the Switzerland Q1 GDP reported above-the-consensus estimates. The Q1 YoY Gross Domestic Product came out 0.7% higher than the market expectation of around 1.0%. However, the next event displayed negative report eating away the morning gains. The German June Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey recorded 2.97% below the forecasts figures. Following such weaker reports, the EUR/USD pair dropped from day’s high of 1.1199 levels reaching near 1.1182 levels. In the later hours, the pair showcased formation of a double bottom pattern amid Italian budget concerns. Responding to the country’s threat to violate the EU Fiscal Rules, the EU slammed Italy with a $3-4bn fine. Hence, the Italian budget continued to stay under due pressure disturbing the Fiber. At around 16:05 GMT, the pair was trading near 1.1171 levels quoting the day’s lowest level. The plunge in the pair triggered over robust USD data. The US May Consumer Confidence Index and March S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices further controlled the pair’s movements.

USD/CAD

Today, the Loonie discontinued its consolidation mode, which was sustained near 1.3440 levels and traveled upwards. During the initial hours of the day, the pair remained restrained within the range of 1.3430/50 levels. Further, the USD/CAD pair marked the fresh daily high near 1.3475 levels. However, this notable improvement was short-lived after the release of the USD-specific events. The pair was pushed down to 10 pips after the release of the March YoY S&P Case-Shiller HPI. This HPI data stood bearish and recorded low numbers.

USDCAD 60 Min 28 May 2019
USDCAD 60 Min 28 May 2019

Laterwards, the Loonie bounced to 1.3470 levels following the strengthening USD Index. The Greenback underpinned against its rival currencies amid global risk sentiment, which promoted the investors to buy safe-haven pair. Also, the Oil prices recorded mix performance today, helping the Loonie to retain its position above 1.3435 levels. Meanwhile, the Consumer Confidence report came out 134.1 points than the estimated 130 points. These bullish figures helped the Loonie to maintain its day’s achievements.

GBP/USD

Cable recorded weekly low levels near 1.2654 levels today despite the absence of GBP-specific events. The primary reason behind the deepening plunge in the depressed pair was Britain’s political uncertainty and no-deal Brexit fear. A piece of news caught the headline about almost ten lawmakers filing their nominations to replace Theresa May. Over to this news, the Investors remained convinced about the new PM, who will take the stance for Pro-Brexit later. Adding to the pair’s downtrend, the Greenback appeared healthy amid optimistic Consumer Confidence Index. Furthermore, the US-China Trade tensions added in further significant improvement in the GBP/USD pair. Therefore, today’s weak market sentiments benefitted the safe-haven against its British counterpart.

Forex Daily Recap – Cable Dropped as Odds for a Hard Brexit Increased with Farage’s Win

US Dollar Index

The Greenback had touched the culmination mark of around 98.35 top levels on May 23. However, the USD Index failed to keep hold of the gains and had started the plunge rally on the second half of that day. The Index had continued the downtrend until today but appeared to initiate reversal from around 97.55 low levels. Today’s primary trend in the USD Index followed the drop of German 10-year Bond Yields, which hovered near its bottom levels. Euro being the biggest rival, the Greenback benefitted out of this and was more than 0.17% up for the day. The Index marked day’s high near 97.75 levels despite lack of economic events.

US Dollar Index 60 Min 27 May 2019
US Dollar Index 60 Min 27 May 2019

All US Banks remained closed today on account of Memorial Day. At around 05:00 GMT, the Japanese March Coincidence Index, and Leading Economic Index reported slightly lesser than the estimates. Though there remained lack of any fresh US-China trade dispute headlines, speculations revealed the US plans to blacklist another Chinese firm. This time after Huwaei, the Company is Hikvision Digital Technology, Giant Surveillance Equipment Manufacturers. Trump administration displayed deeps concerns about China’s “extensive surveillance industry”. During today’s session, such underlying trade tensions kept the Greenback restrained from growing further.

GBP/USD

Cable initiated trading on Monday morning near 1.2722 levels. The day started with a clear upshoot touching day’s high near 1.2748 levels amid the release of EU Election results. Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party won the majority UK seats followed by Lib. Democratic Party. The Conservatives and Labors remained down in the list as noted in the Election outcome. Farage commented that “Never before in British politics has a new party, launched six weeks ago, topped the polls in a national election”. However, the GBP/USD pair slipped 0.60% landing near 1.2670 levels following fears of a hard Brexit. After the announcement of the results, Farage had mentioned in his speech to the press that he needs a seat at Brexit talks. He alerted that the EU-UK Divorce should happen to the earliest and within the deadline October 31, 2019. If allowed to attend Brexit talks, Farage promised to ensure a Brexit happening irrespective of an underlying deal. Meantime, with May set to leave Downing Street on June 7, candidates line up to become May’s successor.

USD/TRY

The US Dollar, Turkish Lira pair, continued declining on Monday’s session as Lira stays under the verge of an economic crash again. The USD/TRY pair traveled along a straight line around 6.0842 levels in the early morning session. Recently, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) announced the depreciating value of Turkish Lira currency.

USDTRY 60 Min 27 May 2019
USDTRY 60 Min 27 May 2019

Over the years, Turkish people have tended to use foreign currencies over the local currency, limiting usage of Lira. Hence, the Central Bank addressed banks to elevate their Reserve Requirement Ratio with the Bank. Officials believe that this would lead citizens to increase the Lira liquidity in their national territory. However, the Bank’s revenues continue plunging, depreciating the local currency. Nevertheless, a lack of new headlines over US-Sino trade talks helped the USD/TRY pair to reduce intra-day losses. The pair had touched the day’s low near 6.0300 levels and recovered later reaching near 6.0614 levels.

USD/JPY

After closing the last day’s trading session on a negative note, the pair displayed some signs of recovery. The USD/JPY pair elevated from the 109.45 levels touching near the day’s high near 109.58 levels following weak Japanese March data. Leading Economic Index came out 0.42% lower than the consensus estimates of around 96.3 points. Also, the Coincidence Index reported 99.4 points over 99.6 forecasts. The Japanese Yen lost further ground after the BoJ’s Governor Kuroda alerted of high economic instability.

Forex Daily Recap – Cable Shoots on New Prime Minister Hopes

GBP/USD

During the day, Cable displayed fantastic movements favoring the traders as news revealed May would resign on June 7. However, the pair still hovers below the weekly entry point. The pair had remained consolidated near 1.2661 levels in the opening hours deciding which direction to move. The early rise was on the back of sound UK April Retail Sales figures. The market hoped for a decline in the statistics this time. Anyhow, the reports came out higher than market expectation. UK April Retail Sales YoY, which excluded Fuel data reported 4.9% over 4.2% estimates. Following such poor reports, the GBP/USD pair dropped around 0.55% in the morning session. Fortunately, the pair seesawed laterwards, covering up the morning incurred losses. The recovery upliftment came after the release of lower-than-expected US April Goods Orders data. This US data reported a negative 2.1% over the consensus estimates of positive 2.0%. Despite that, Brexit chaos capped further gains of the pair.

With May’s resignation, Boris Johnson sets ready to take over the PM position. From there, Boris will take forward the Brexit issue.

USD/CAD

Loonie extended last day’s plunge rally into Friday’s trading session. The pair had opened up near 1.3475 levels and had touched the day’s low near 1.3440 levels. The major contributor for the deepened plummet in the USD/CAD pair was the Greenback fall. During the day, the US Dollar Index had a massive slip from its weekly tops to weekly lows. The reason for the drop in the USD Index was the weaker-than-expected Goods Orders data and rising trade tensions.

USDCAD 60 Min 24 May 2019
USDCAD 60 Min 24 May 2019

Earlier the day, the overall global economy was down amid Trump’s comment to add Huwaei for negotiation in the trade deal. Chinese counterpart remained enraged over the President’s unnecessary actions. Meantime, the Crude prices remained quite silent near $58.50 bbl in the morning, later slipped to $57.50 bbl. The commodity had reached near such bottom levels after EIA reported huge Crude stockpiles on Wednesday. Anyways, the Oil prices showed minor recovery today as traders hope for a robust global trade trend.

US Dollar Index

After reaching the weekly top levels near 98.35 levels yesterday, the Greenback slipped to 97.61 levels today. Last day’s plunge had halted near 97.87 levels where the Index started trading on Friday morning. However, the Greenback was pushed off the cliff making the Index land near 97.63 levels in the afternoon session. Positive GBP data and adverse US data remained the main rationales behind the Greenback slump. UK April Retail Sales figures reported above the market expectation in the Asian session. While the US April Durable Goods Orders missed the estimates over a considerable margin. The most significant Non-Defense Capital Goods excluding Aircraft came as -0.9% over 0.3% forecasts. In a nutshell, the Greenback marked the weekly high yesterday and weekly low today. The lowest point touched until 15:46 GMT was 97.64 levels.

XAU/USD

Gold prices seemed to elevate today as investors shifted to safe-haven assets amid risk-off market conditions. Throughout the day, skyrocketing major rivals tried to push down the Greenback, making it reach near the weekly bottom. Adding to that, weak Goods Orders data further lowered the Index gains.

XAUUSD 60 Min 24 May 2019
XAUUSD 60 Min 24 May 2019

The XAU/USD pair was trading near 1285.03 levels, 0.55% up for the week at around 17:18 GMT.

Forex Daily Recap – Greenback Slipped Amid Poor Unemployment, PMI, & New Home Sales Data

US Dollar Index

The Greenback marked the day’s high as well as low levels within a bracket of three hours in the European session. The USD Index was taking rounds near its weekly top levels in the morning session. Following a few negative German and Eurozone reports, the EUR/USD pair had dropped significant levels reaching near bottom levels. Taking advantage of the situation, the US Dollar made a jump of around 35 pips reaching near 98.35 levels. However, traders lost hopes over the Greenback post-release of major USD-specific events.

USD Index 60 Min 23 May 2019
USD Index 60 Min 23 May 2019

Though the Initial Jobless Claims reported 4K below estimates, Continuous Jobless Claims recorded 6M higher than the market expectation. This report signaled higher unemployment growth in May, creating a negative sentiment around the Index. Also, US May Markit PMI Composite shocked the market, reporting 4.52% lesser than estimates. US New Home Sales Monthly Change for April was 2K below expectation. With the broadcast of all these adverse reports, the USD Index had lost all the gains accumulated earlier today. At 15:23 GMT, the Greenback was trading near 97.97 levels, 0.12% down for the day.

GBP/USD

Cable had extended the previous day’s plunge rally into today’s morning session. The economic calendar remained silent amid the absence of GBP-specific events. However, Brexit tensions kept on troubling the pair. MPs continue to pressurize May to provide a timetable for her resignation. Though the Cable had then dropped to 1.2610 low levels, the pair took a U-turn from this pivotal point. The GBP/USD pair had risen over falling Greenback. Poor US Unemployment figures and May Markit PMI Composite had pushed down the USD Index, thereby elevating rival Pound. The Cable marked the day’s high near 1.2680 levels.

USD/CAD

After opening up in the Asian session near 1.3438 levels, the Loonie started crawling upwards. The USD/CAD pair soared almost 59 pips reaching near the month’s peak spot around 1.3500 levels. But, this growth was short-lived amid bearish USD-specific economic data and the falling Crude prices.

The Canadian Wholesales Sales recorded higher numbers and stood bullish over the pair. Following such optimistic Canadian reports, the pair continued moving north. But laterwards, the Loonie dropped reaching near 1.3464 levels after the release of significant US economic reports. The Unemployment data reported higher figures, whereas the Manufacturing and Service PMI remained bearish than anticipated. Also, the US New Home Sales recorded lesser numbers, adding to more pullback in the pair.

Tumbling Crude prices weighed on the commodity-sensitive CAD. The WTI Oil futures declined 6% today due to OPEC-led supply cuts and rising US Crude Inventories. US-Sino trade tensions escalated after an EU official hinted of Trump’s disinterest to resume trade talks sooner.

USDCAD 60 Min 23 May 2019
USDCAD 60 Min 23 May 2019

EUR/USD

The Euro pair kept sliding down today amid poor German and Eurozone reports but recovered later over plummeting Greenback. The EUR/USD pair initiated the day’s trading session near 1.1155 levels. However, investors lost hope as the critical economic events reported weak figures. The highly significant German May Markit Services PMI came 1.13% lower than estimates. The German Q1 GDP reported in-line with market expectation, providing a neutral impact over the pair. At around 08:00 GMT, the German May IFO figures reported weaker-than-expectation. Adding to this, Eurozone May Markit PMI Composite came near 51.6 over 51.7 forecasts. The combined effect of these weak reports hammered the pair making it reach near 1.1110 low levels.

Fortunately, below-expected USD-specific events saved the pair from a further plunge. The US May Markit Composite PMI and Continuing Jobless Claim showcased adverse figures. Following the release of such weak reports, the Greenback dropped and thereby allowed Fiber to jump. In this way, the Euro pair recovered the earlier day’s losses reaching near the day’s opening levels.

Forex Daily Recap – FOMC Minutes Revealed No Rate Change in the Near Period

US Dollar Index

The Greenback that weighs against the six significant rivals currencies sustained near 98 top levels today. Fed minutes indicated no as such urgency among FOMC members to observe a rate surge. The minutes highlighted that there remained no severe concerns from the global cues like Brexit and Trade war. In a nutshell, the Fed would keep the rates unchanged for the next couple of months. The USD Index showcased 4-6 pips upward movement following the minutes’ release. Earlier the day, the Greenback had remained highly volatile jumping between highs and lows. Investors continued to stay anxious over the rising US-Sino trade tensions. Some reports suggested that the US is planning to blacklist a few other Chinese Surveillance firms running in the US, like Huawei.

USD Index 60 Min 22 May 2019
USD Index 60 Min 22 May 2019

GBP/USD

During the Asian opening session, the Cable made a downshift amid Brexit uncertainties. Last night, Theresa May presented her “new improvised deal” to the MPs. The main highlights of the deal were the Customs Union and the Second Referendum. The Tories had mentioned their disagreement yesterday itself. May had introduced the Customs Union section over demand from the Corbyn’s Labor. Hence, the PM expects strong support from the Labor in her Fourth attempt. However, in the early session, a Labor party representative hinted that they don’t agree to May’s latest deal. Cable investors went unnerved over rising odds of May losing again.

Meanwhile, talks continued on May’s resignation. Speculations suggested that her former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson may become the next PM. Johnson had also served as the Mayor of London. On the events front, positive UK April Retail Price Index attempted to provide an upward drift. Nonetheless, lower-than-expected CPI and PPI figures pushed the Cable more down. The GBP/USD pair had touched the four-month low near 1.2624 levels.

USD/CAD

Loonie traders stood worried earlier the day seeing the plunge rally in the pair. The Oil prices had shot up in the Asian session amid OPEC+ proclaims production cuts. On the other hand, Russia remained reluctant for a supply cut. Such contrasting opinions among the OPEC+ members made the Crude steady thereon. Crude price change has an inverse impact on the USD/CAD pair. Hence, the pair was down in the morning. Later in the European session, Canadian March Retail Sales figures came out. The reports were above the market expectation. Following such positive reports, the Loonie lost another slot of around 40 pips. The pair had then reached the lowest point near 1.3355 levels today. However, the pair reversed the trend as the Oil slumped on the release of EIA Crude Stocks Change report. This EIA Inventory report computed since May 17 recorded 4.740 million figure.

USDCAD 60 Min 22 May 2019
USDCAD 60 Min 22 May 2019

On the contrary, the market had expected a negative number this time. Hence, such a vast inventory revealing report pushed the Loonie 0.58% upwards. The pair marked the day’s high near 1.3434 healthy resistance levels.

AUD/USD

The Aussie pair maintained seesawed performance throughout the day. Robust support lines near 0.6873 levels made the pair bounce upwards three times today. Earlier the day, the Westpac April MoM Leading Index came near negative 0.1% over previous 0.3%. Also, Q1 Construction Work Done reported negative 1.9% over 0.0% forecast. The AUD/USD pair dropped around 0.19% following such adverse reports. The pair had marked the day’s high near 0.6897 levels. In the second half of the day, the earlier accumulated gains got vapourised amid rising Greenback. The Index had aroused from 97.90 levels, straight to 98.06 levels.