Buyers Do Not Have Enough

Indices are firm in the middle of the week with the SP500 flirting with all-time-highs and the Nasdaq coming back above major supports. Two main indices are slightly behind: the DAX and Nikkei but we cannot say that there is a major bearish situation there. At least not yet.

Gold protected the crucial mid-term up trendline and saved its positive sentiment.

Brent Oil escaped from a few days long consolidation and is aiming for new long-term highs.

The USDCAD consolidated above the strong long-term horizontal support, which may indicate willingness for a breakout.

The ERUCHF keeps dropping but the price is getting closer to the mother of all supports, where the situation can get very interesting.

The EURAUD is in a very clean price action setup, where the price bounces from a combination of two horizontal and one dynamic resistance. As long as we stay below, the sentiment is negative.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Terrible Month for USD but Maybe the Last Day Will Be Better

Gold attacked a crucial support again but this time with a very sharp fall.

Brent oil initiated a bearish correction.

The Dow Jones is still in a pennant waiting for a breakout.

The DAX is still in a rectangle pattern also patiently waiting for a direction.

The EURUSD has started a bearish correction.

The Canadian Dollar is still going stronger.

The EURAUD is in a symmetric triangle waiting for a breakout.

The AUDCHF is in a similar situation.

The EURNZD is also waiting to end the sideways trend but in this case, the price is locked inside of a rectangle.

The AUDJPY defends a crucial support level after the bullish breakout from the triangle. It’s an interesting opportunity in terms of risk to reward ratio.

The ZARJPY defends the neckline of the head and shoulders formation.

The USDHUF is in a long-term sell signal after the price drops below the major support.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/AUD It’s Time for Sellers to Turn the Tables

The EUR/AUD is making a 1-2-3 hook pattern and we should see a move down. Sellers are here.

After a retracement, the pair has come to W H3 camarilla pivot. However, it is not just the W H3, it is also a M H4 which indicates a monthly camarilla pivot level. I see a continuation lower towards 1.5538 and a potential for 1.5465. Sellers are in control at this POC as the AUD is getting stronger. Watch for a drop from the POC zone towards above-mentioned levels.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Cheers and safe trading,

Nenad

 

Weekly Commentary – EUR, USD and GBP

EUR/USD 1.2061, AUD/USD 0.7657 and USD/CAD 1.2783 decide future and current direction to all 28 currency pairs. EUR/USD and AUD/USD breaks then much lower or much higher. USD/CAD breaks 1.2783 then much higher or a failure to break then much lower.

JPY cross pairs remain overbought and reveal EUR/USD and AUD/USD will eventually break lower and USD/CAD breaks higher. GBP and NZD will then follow lower.

Not a driver to market prices this week are the typical alarm bells written by market writers with specialization in marketing rather than expertise in markets, trading and market prices. Elections, Covid, lockdowns, vaccines, central bank meetings, yields, month-end, Fed, Powell and the Mars rover landing failed to move market prices. Not at the time of release nor in subsequent trade days did prices move except to the degree intended from the start of the day or week.

A market price will achieve its destination by mathematical certainty without regard to outside events yet professional alarm bell ringers are surprised at a rise in yields, no movements to NFP and central bank meetings and to a price that fails to respond to their sounding of the bells in the market square.

NFP and fed meetings barely moved EUR/USD 20 pips in each of the last 6 and 8 months. Whistleblowers month-end and rebalance will be heard this week. Meanwhile, monthly averages haven’t changed in many months and a rebalance nor month-end changes to prices fails to exist as price fail to move enough to require changes to averages.

DXY monthly averages remain inside 89.95 to 91.43, Gold 1815 -1642. EUR/USD traded 1.1900’s -1.2200 in February, 1.2000’s to 1.2300’s in January. The 2 year yield traded 0.11 to 0.23 in the past 9 months. The S&P’s traded 300 points from 3900 to 3600 for February, 200 points for January. WTI traded 10 points in February from 51.00 to 61, and 6 Points for January.

Our professional alarm bell ringers are long on whistles but short on market competency. A Necessary yet least favored aspect to market prices, trades, and economics is the requirement to run and enter data for a clear picture of entries and exits and to understand the economic condition. But market prices and profits were never nor will ever be the ultimate goal to reporting.

The Week

The ultimate revelation to a cautious market this week is found in GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD. GBP/AUD at 1.8059 resides inside vital range points from 1.7885 to 1.8130 and GBP/NZD at 1.9318 to 1.9176. Both GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD from oversold last week drifted higher directly into a neutral zone for this week.

EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD however are deeply oversold and contains the ability to travel higher while GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD remain stuck in neutrality.

EUR/USD led the charge higher for non USD pairs upon the break of the 5 year average at 1.1300’s last July and is in the position to take down GBP, NZD and all non USD pairs. GBP/USD must break 1.3600’s and NZD/USD 0.7100’s to assist in a wholesale trend change.

Deeply oversold USD/CHF at 0.9084 broke higher from 0.9001, CAD/ZAR trades above 11.86 and USD/CAD is on the verge of a break higher at 1.2783.

GBP/USD retains slightly overbought status while next highest exchange rate GBP/JPY is deeply overbought and next lowest GBP/CHF also opens the week in richter scale overbought. Same situation exits for EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD as EUR/CHF and EUR/JPY are both overbought. NZD/CAD and AUD/CAD offer no assistance as leaders to NZD/USD and AUD/USD direction as both sit in neutrality.

EUR/GBP challenges 0.8732 on a break of 0.8573 or a drift to 0.8400;s. EUR/GBP traded to exactly 0.8728 Friday then lower to close at 0.8655.

DXY remains in a 89.95 to 91.43 range and a break higher at 91.43 challenges 92.78.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Weekly Round Up – February 21st, 2021

AUD/USD broke its long standing and much written line at 0.7821 and traded 57 pips to 0.7877. Above 0.7821, AUD/USD ranges between 0.7821 to the 10 year average at 0.8305 or 484 pips. Below 0.7821, AUD/USD trades 0.7821 to 0.7308 or 513 pips. Below 0.7821 exists 0.7605.

DXY last week maintained its 148 pip range between 89.95 to 91.43. Above 91.43 next targets 92.78 in a 135 pip range.

GBP as written in the last post maintains deep overbought status across all GBP pairs except GBP/NZD. Watch 1.9136 this week for best moves.

EUR/USD opens in fairly perfect neutrality however ranges continue to compress. Problem pair EUR/JPY and all JPY cross pairs maintain deeply overbought status for week 4. EUR/CAD, EUR/NZD and EUR/AUD open the week massive oversold. EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD will provide the best moves.

Stand clear EUR/CHF as AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF will provide better movements.

NZD/USD 0.7267 then 0.7356 Vs 0.7267 and 0.7990. NZD/CAD is overbought while NZD/JPY heading into week 4 maintains richter scale overbought status.

Overall, NZD/USD traded 200 pips from 0.7100’s to 0.7300’s for the past 2 months and provided support to GBP and AUD to allow both to move higher. Explains the divergence seen in EUR/NZD Vs GBP/NZD this week.

USD/JPY watch 104.97 and USD/CAD 1.2587 Vs 1.2826.

 

 

EUR/AUD Bullish Retracement or Reversal Despite Downtrend

The EUR/AUD is showing bullish reversal or retracement signals. This article reviews the reversal signs and analyses the two main scenarios for this currency pair.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

EUR/AUD 25.01.2021 daily chart

The EUR/AUD has 6 daily candles failing to break for a new low. This indicates the end of the bearish price swing and the start of a bullish price swing.

There are also other signals that confirm this:

  • Double bottom pattern
  • Break above the resistance trend line
  • Bullish daily candles
  • HMA 20 is up
  • Oscillator momentum is bullish (blue)
  • Higher high

The overall direction, however, could remain bearish due to the lack of divergence. This is why the bearish swing has been labelled as a wave 3 (pink) of wave C (purple).

The current bullish swing is likely to be a retracement. The main target is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level where a new downtrend could emerge (red arrows).

Only a break above the resistance trend line (orange) plus the 21 ema zone and the emergence of an uptrend channel (green lines) could indicate an uptrend (blue arrows). This indicates the end of the downtrend and wave C (purple).

On the 4 hour chart, price action is expected to make one push up (green arrows). Although price could dip first to test support. The bullish retracement remains likely as long as price action stays above the Wizz 6 level.

The Wizz 5 level and 144 ema zone could act as a key resistance. A strong bearish bounce confirms the downtrend (red arrows). A break above the Wizz 5 level indicates a new uptrend (blue arrows).

EUR/AUD 25.01.2021 4 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

 

V-Shape Reversal on Stocks. Something That We Got Used To

Gold, did not manage to break the upper line of the flag but still defends above the major support on 1850 USD/oz.

Silver on the other hand, broke both important resistances, horizontal and dynamic one.

Oil tries to defend the lower line of the channel up.

Major indices with V-shape reversals.

EURUSD aims higher again.

USDJPY denies the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern and aims lower.

USDCAD bonces from a crucial long-term horizontal resistance.

EURAUD possibly with another false breakout, this time to the downside.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Indices and Commodities Climb Higher

Commodities are enjoying the weaker USD and advancing higher.

Indices also going up, not disturbed even by new lockdowns.

EURUSD is about to test crucial horizontal resistance.

EURJPY in a sideways trend below 126.7.

AUDJPY with an inverse head and shoulder and breakout of a long-term down trendline.

USDCAD still near lows after the breakout of major horizontal support.

GBPCHF with a breakout of the lower line of the triangle.

EURAUD with a possible false bearish breakout from the rectangle.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Monday Brings Us Higher Volatility on Major Indices

Indices start the new week on local highs and then quickly collapse. The start of the European session brings buyers a bit of relief, volatility is definitely here!

DAX bounces from the lower line of the triangle.

SP500 on the other hand, bounces from the upper line of the triangle.

Gold moves gradually lower.

Oil locked in a flag, aiming the latest broken resistance.

Dollar Index heading lower again.

EURUSD do not stop the upswing.

EURAUD still defending major horizontal support.

The same goes with the USDCAD, which is holding above 1.297.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Monday Starts Promising for Indices and Commodities

Indices starts the new week on the front foot.

SP500 is inside the short-term symmetric triangle pattern.

Nasdaq is in the same formation but in the long-term.

DAX is inside of the ascending triangle formation awaiting bullish breakout.

Gold still trades above 1850 USD/oz.

Brent Oil flies away after breaking the upper line of the triangle.

Dollar Index attacking crucial horizontal support.

AUDUSD attacking the upper line of the triangle.

EURAUD is about to test the lower line of the long-term sideways trend.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

Thursday On Indices Brings Us a Correction

Seems that Thursday will be a correction day on global stock exchanges, which is pretty normal and sellers should not get overly excited about seeing a red color on the screens.

FTSE is getting ready for a bearish correction, probably aiming 38,2% Fibonacci.

CAC is doing pretty much the same.

Gold is defending crucial support on 1850 USD/oz.

Oil is testing the most important support in the past few weeks – 41.3 USD/bbl.

AUDUSD aims lower after creating the Head and Shoulders pattern.

EURUSD goes lower after the false breakout of a dynamic resistance.

EURAUD tests and bounces from the lower line of the long-term range.

USDCAD bounces from the long-term horizontal support.

CHFJPY – two safe haven currencies locked inside of the symmetric triangle pattern.

GBPCAD with exactly the same situation.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

How Not to Like Mondays?

SP500 is on all-time highs

DAX breaks the line connecting the top of the head and the right shoulder of the H&S formation

CAC goes above highs from June

FTSE breaks the upper line of the flag

Gold collapses heavily

Oil tests the upper line of the symmetric triangle

Dollar Index on the other hand breaks the lower line of the symmetric triangle

AUDUSD climbs higher after breaking the upper line of the wedge

EURAUD shows how to deal with the false breakouts. Hint: You trade them!

USDCAD breaks crucial horizontal support

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Market Action Before US Elections

Nasdaq bounces from the lower line of a big symmetric triangle pattern.

SP500 finds support on the 23,6% Fibonacci and tests it with a nice daily hammer.

DAX has even a better situation, also with hammer but here on the 38,2% Fibonacci, which tends to be more reliable.

EURUSD tests the broken 1.17 as a closest resistance. Sellers are winning.

EURAUD is coming back inside the sideways trend area. Apparently the bullish breakout was fake.

Gold is bouncing from the 1893 USD/oz resistance.

EURPLN comes back a bit and test the broken 4,59 as a closest support. That looks like a great place for a price action traders.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Indices Try to Catch a Breath. Great Session for USD

Almost all indices collapse and aim for long-term lows.

SP500 is testing the 23,6% Fibonacci.

DAX is very close to reach the 38,2% Fibonacci.

FTSE breaks the lower line of the wedge formation.

CAC reaches crucial support from the first half of the year.

EURUSD breaks the lower line of the flag formation.

EURAUD eventually bounces from the upper line of the sideways trend.

EURGBP in a flag but with inclinations for an upswing.

AUDCHF goes lower after the bounce from a crucial resistance.

WTI Oil breaks the lower line of the symmetric triangle.

Gold goes lower after the escape from the mid-term pennant.

USDPLN breaks the neckline of the inverse Head & Shoulders pattern, it looks bullish.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Indices Wobble Above Major Supports

DAX is making an attempt to break the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern, which can start a major downswing.

FTSE is fighting on the 5800.

Dollar Index in the pennant waiting for a breakout.

USDJPY trying to break the upper line of the ascending triangle pattern.

GBPUSD bouncing from the crucial 1.3 support.

EURAUD are testing the recent most important resistance as a support.

WTI Oil on a good aim to test the lower line of a big symmetric triangle pattern.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Stocks Try to Catch a Breath, USD Not so Much

Stock Markets try to recover from losses and they are in a good place to do so.

Nasdaq bounces from 11600 (for the third time!) with a bullish engulfing on the H1 chart.

SP500 defends 3430 again.

FTSE test crucial support on 5800.

Dollar Index, as expected, goes lower after the flag and a head and shoulders pattern.

EURUSD is heading higher after breaking important mid-term down trendline.

EURAUD finally escapes from the long-term sideways trend.

GBPUSD breaks 1.3 and enters the bullish zone.

EURPLN meets long-term horizontal resistance on 4.59.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Dollar Under Pressure but EUR/AUD Stands Out

Indices and American Dollar collapsed yesterday. Tuesday brings us a reversal attempt on stocks but Dollar remains ultra-bearish. We are not surprised with that as we were highlighting this possibility in our video from yesterday. As always, welcome to Trading Sniper, where we have three best trading setups on the market.

First one is the Dollar Index, which is in a downfall after creating the flag and the head and shoulders pattern. Both formations ended with broken supports, which in both cases activates a legitimate sell signal. We do not see much of a hope for buyers but comeback above the neckline could be good for a start. As long as we stay below, the sentiment is negative.

Slide on Dollar Index, usually means rise on EURUSD. It is not different this time. The price came back above two major horizontal resistances and then managed to break the long-term down trendline. That breakout gives us a buy signal and a lot of optimism.

EURUSD may look nice but crème de la crème of today’s video is EURAUD. A long time ago, I spotted a nice sideways trend and was waiting for a breakout ever since, to the upside to be accurate. The breakout happened yesterday and ended 4 months of a boring sideways trend. According to Price Action, that is a strong, long-term buy signal, the one that should come as a reward for patient traders. Lets see how this one will work out.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Dollar Comes Back to the Bearish Territory

Nasdaq is still below dynamic and horizontal resistance

SP500 is on a good way to break crucial levels and go higher

DAX sharply bounces from the 12960 points

Dollar Index ignores the inverse head and shoulders and creates a flag. Situation here is bearish

EURUSD are flirting with important dynamic resistance

GBPUSD are one step from breaking 1,3 – the most important level in the past few weeks

AUDUSD with a small bullish correction but the main sentiment is very negative

EURAUD makes another attempt to escape from the long-term rectangle

EURCHF breaks crucial support and later tests it as a resistance. Pretty standard price action move

Gold tries to go higher but the upper line of the pennant looks well defended

Stocks Erase Tuesday Loses, On The Way Towards New Highs Again.

Stocks erased Tuesday’s loses and are heading significantly higher.

EURUSD fell back below crucial support and are now testing the lower line of the flag.

EURAUD still locked inside of the long-term range.

AUDNZD breaks the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern and the upper line of the flag.

USDJPY creates a small pennant after breaking major long-term dynamic resistance.

EURNZD with the head and shoulders pattern but the first attack on the neckline was unsuccessful.

NZDCAD with a head and shoulders pattern but the first attack on the neckline was unsuccessful too.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Breaks Crucial Resistances, but GBP/USD and AUD/USD Fail

CAC tests the broken neckline as the closest support

FTSE bounces from the bottom line of the wedge pattern

SP500 breaks the neckline of a big inverse head and shoulders pattern

EURUSD breaks major dynamic and horizontal resistance

AUDUSD bounces with style from the crucial horizontal resistance

GBPUSD is doing pretty much the same

EURAUD aims the upper line of the range

AUDNZD fails to go higher after a beautiful bullish setup

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.