April didn’t start out too well for the Canadian Dollar, but it’ll probably end up great for it. That’s thanks to the Bank of Canada, which decided to cut the stimulus yesterday and hinted about rising interest rates in the very near future. Rates are what really drive the sentiment on the market, so we didn’t have to wait long to see significant movements on pairs with the Canadian Dollar.
What’s amazing is that those movements didn’t happen in random places. Before the statement from the BOC, CAD was technically on a very slippery slope, particularly in pairs with USD and EUR.
Let me show you the situation on the USDCAD. Here, the price was in a long-term downtrend but yesterday, the price was breaking both important down trendlines! In theory that was very bullish for this pair, therefore negative for the Canadian Dollar, that is, until the BOC stepped in.
The Canadian dollar strengthened immediately and the price reversed creating a bearish engulfing pattern. What’s more is we saw a false bullish breakout, which almost always is a great opportunity to trade in the opposite direction. Now we’re back below downtrend lines, ready for another drop.
A similar situation can be spotted on the EURCAD. Here, we also do have a bearish engulfing on a daily candlestick chart (green area). We also have a false breakout, which, in this case, is above the horizontal resistance on the 1.507 (yellow). In addition to this, we have a bounce from the mid-term down trendline (green) and also bounce from the 38,2% Fibonacci. Well, based on my understanding of price action, all that is pretty bearish. Sentiment is negative, as long as we stay below the green down trendline.
In the case of USDCAD, everything seems pretty clear, on the EURCAD too, but only from the technical point of view, because today we have ECB! We all know what can happen if ECB surprises the market; none of the technical analyses work and traders go bananas.
Will that be the case on the Euro today? Well, we are not expecting anything major, so maybe…
EUR/USD ranges this week severely diminish due to problems within the EUR universe. EUR/JPY remains light years overbought while EUR/NZD and EUR/CAD maintain oversold conditions. EUR/CAD broke its 5 year average at 1.4955 and trades ranges from 1.4955 to 1.4547 then 1.4427. EUR/GBP is oversold however it trades between 0.8740 to 0.8414 to the 5 and 10 year average. EUR/USD cross pairs will determine EUR fate this week to direction.
GBP/NZD from this week’s close at 1.9374 sits on supports at 1.9330 and 1.9246. Last week vitals from 1.9318 to 1.9188 and the week prior 1.9318 to 1.9176. GBP/AUD from its close at 1.7927 contains resistance at 1.7934 then 1.8134 and last week 1.8130 to 1.7905 then 1.7885 to 1.8130. Both are problem pairs entering into the new week.
Week 7 to massively overbought JPY cross pairs. For the month, NZD/JPY rose 100 pips, barely 200 for AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY, 400 for GBP/JPY and a rare day for 400 pips to CAD/JPY. CAD/JPY beat USD/CAD by 100 pips as USD/CAD traded 300 pips. traditionally, USD/CAD always trades wider ranges than CAD/JPY as CAD/JPY is the follow pair to USD/CAD.
USD/CHF and USD/JPY begin the week deeply overbought while USD/CAD is severely oversold. The strategy this week is long USD/CAD, short CAD/JPY and refrain from trading laggard currencies, USD/CHF and USD/JPY. For problem pair USD/JPY lower must break the 5 year average at 108.98 then 106.43. Above at 109.00’s and 110 is maximum to USD/JPY averages dating to 1999.
While GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF are overbought, GBP/CAD matches EUR/CAD to oversold and GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD as problem pairs. GBP/USD like EUR/USD is hostage to its cross pairs for direction.
AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD both broke below vital points at 0.9737 and 0.9073. With NZD/CAD’s break lower, NZD/USD’s close at 0.7173 sits 53 pips above its vital break at 0.7120. Overbought NZD/JPY and NZD/CHF will assist NZD/USD’s eventual break at 0.7120. Then AUD, GBP and EUR slide further.
AUD/USD big break lower is located at 0.7641. AUD achieves this challenge by breaks lower at 0.7716 and 0.7679.
Gold remain inside 1815 to 1642. DXY 91.43 Vs 92.78 and 89.95 below. The 2 year yield broke above reported 0.1511 to trade 2 points higher to 0.1711. The 10 year yield at its 1.625 close, trades inside its wide ranges from 1.3305 to 1.8448.
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AUD/USD broke its long standing and much written line at 0.7821 and traded 57 pips to 0.7877. Above 0.7821, AUD/USD ranges between 0.7821 to the 10 year average at 0.8305 or 484 pips. Below 0.7821, AUD/USD trades 0.7821 to 0.7308 or 513 pips. Below 0.7821 exists 0.7605.
DXY last week maintained its 148 pip range between 89.95 to 91.43. Above 91.43 next targets 92.78 in a 135 pip range.
GBP as written in the last post maintains deep overbought status across all GBP pairs except GBP/NZD. Watch 1.9136 this week for best moves.
EUR/USD opens in fairly perfect neutrality however ranges continue to compress. Problem pair EUR/JPY and all JPY cross pairs maintain deeply overbought status for week 4. EUR/CAD, EUR/NZD and EUR/AUD open the week massive oversold. EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD will provide the best moves.
Stand clear EUR/CHF as AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF will provide better movements.
NZD/USD 0.7267 then 0.7356 Vs 0.7267 and 0.7990. NZD/CAD is overbought while NZD/JPY heading into week 4 maintains richter scale overbought status.
Overall, NZD/USD traded 200 pips from 0.7100’s to 0.7300’s for the past 2 months and provided support to GBP and AUD to allow both to move higher. Explains the divergence seen in EUR/NZD Vs GBP/NZD this week.
USD/JPY watch 104.97 and USD/CAD 1.2587 Vs 1.2826.
EUR/USD most significant high/ low point is located at 1.2026. A break however at 1.2020 represent a wholesale trend change for a lower EUR/USD. Current EUR/USD trades above 1.2026.
USD/JPY on the other side trades above its significant high/ low point at 104.72. Both EUR/USD and USD/JPY are mis aligned. Either USD/JPY remains above 104.72 and trades higher or EUR/USD must break below 1.2026 and 1.2020 to trade much lower to 1.1700’s. In the interim, both pairs are in a standoff.
Noted from USD/JPY constituents, USD/CAD trades below its high / low point at 1.2867 and USD/CHF below 0.8980. USD/JPY remains the outlier USD pair for the past two weeks.
From the January 3rd long term forecasts, the next major USD/JPY inflection point is located at 106.00 exactly and USD/JPY traded to 105.75 then dropped. While 106.00 above represents the next break, below is located the 10 year average at 103.33 and a 267 pip range.
EUR/USD however must break below its 10 year average at 1.2107 to target the vital breaks at 1.2026 and 1.2020. Above is located the 14 year average at 1.2625. As EUR/USD trades above 1.2107 then the wide range becomes 1.2625 to 1.2107 and a 518 pip range. EUR/USD overall hasn’t changed its 518 pip range since January 8 as important MA’s are dropping simultaneously.
Most important point at 1.2625 however is dropping ever so slowly week to week as is 1.2107. A much lower EUR/USD is ahead in weeks to come.
Between 1.2107 and 1.2624 exists minor daily and weekly trade points.
USD/JPY however above 106.00 exists a vital average every 100 pips until the 5 year average at 109.09. USD/JPY’s counterpart due to the exact same pair is CHF/JPY and it trades above 116.20.
For USD/JPY today, best shorts are located at 105.37 and 105.30 to target 104.90. Longs are located at 104.31 and 104.37 to target 104.64. The break at 104.72 however represents a lower USD/JPY next week.
EUR/USD close price today is forecast at 1.2109 and below 1.2137. This places EUR/USD next week between 1.2082 to 1.2137 for next week.
USD/JPY above 104.72 represents a problem for AUD/JPY as it trades above its 5 year average at 79.70 and NZD/JPY trades above its 10 year average at 75.42. Both are mandatory breaks for AUD/USD to trade lower and break its vital MA at its rising line at 0.7557 and NZD/USD 0.7070.
Any price today for AUD/JPY ar 81.57 is a good short to target 81.17 and today’s close price is forecast at 80.96.
Not only are all JPY cross pairs richter scale overbought but most trade near vital inflection points. EUR/JPY 128.24 is next above Vs below at 125.93 or a 231 pip range. Close price forecast today for EUR/JPY at 126.83 places EUR/JPY at perfect neutral to begin next week.
GBP/JPY trades deeply overbought between vital 5 and 10 year averages at 142.47 and 148.27. Good short today is found at 145.26 to target the close price forecast at 144.08. Quite a distance for a Friday. Above 144.08 then GBP/JPY remains deeply overbought heading into next week.
Overbought GBP/USD forecast close price is located at 1.3741. Shorts today are located at 1,.3866 and 1.3857 to target 1.3772 then 1.3741.
For oversold EUR/CAD, next week 1.5471 high/ low point we’re watching closely.
For high flyer and wide ranger GBP/AUD net week 1.7900 represents the big break. 1.7900 broke this week and traded to 1.7785. EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD’s counterpart must break 1.5923 to trade higher. GBP/AUD break at 1.7900 represents an alignment to EUR/AUD as both now trade below respective MA’s.
For oversold USD/CAD, close price today is forecast 1.2753. Shorts today are located at 1.2787 and 1.2773 to target 1.2731 then 1.2696.
Oversold EUR/GBP trades just above its 5 year average at 0.8725.
S&P bottom and long entry is located at 3896.71 and just ahead of 3861.36. Long target is located at 3906.58 for a quick 10 point trade today.
DAX today must trade back to at least 13970.70. Note most vital today at 13926.28 then 14029.00, 14084.78 then 14156.47. Above 13970.70 targets 14029.00.
Tuesday brings us significant weakness of the Canadian Dollar, which is quite surprising as this movement has no clear fundamental background. Usually technical analysis cooperates with fundamentals but this time, the movement is almost entirely technical, at least from my point of view.
Let’s start with the EURCAD, where the common currency is moving higher, testing an absolutely crucial horizontal resistance level. I mentioned this resistance in one of my previous short videos. The 1.544 level on the EURCAD was an upper border of the sideways trend, present here since April. The price closing the day above the yellow line will be a super strong, long-term buy signal.
Next up is the CADCHF, which we also mentioned recently. The price here is in a full pessimistic mode after the bearish breakout from the flag and bearish breakout from the descending triangle pattern. The CADCHF closing the day below the lower line of the triangle will bring us a proper sell signal.
Lastly, I will mention the USDCAD, which was about to create the right shoulder of the head and shoulders pattern but the weakness of the CAD delayed those plans. Currently, the right shoulder is being transferred into a small inverse head and shoulder with the price testing the neckline as we speak. The price closing above the 1.362 level, can give us a 90-pips-buy-signal.
Another bearish chance for a bigger drop has been wasted. Yesterday, sellers were hoping for a bigger slide on global indices, coming from the bearish breakout from the good-looking symmetric triangle pattern. Hopes faded at the end of the European session and the beginning of the American one, when the DAX and SP500 surged back inside the triangle. In theory, that leaves us with a false bearish breakout, which is usually considered a strong signal in the opposite direction, so in our case – north.
Let’s start with the SP500. You can clearly see the false breakout here and then a nice pullback above the lower line of the triangle. The European session however, didn’t start well and it’s negatively affecting futures on the SP500. The price is correcting the bullish movement from yesterday and is testing the lower line of the triangle again but this time from above. Long story short, as long as the price stays above the lower line of the triangle, sentiment is positive.
Short update about the EURUSD, which is currently forming a flag formation. The flag is a trend continuation pattern, which in this case promotes further rise. In the past few days, the price was making higher lows, supported by the blue up trendline. This may indicate a willingness for a bigger upswing. In the mid-term, as long as the price stays inside the flag, buyers can still have hope for a bigger upswing.
When mentioning the Euro, we have to talk about the EURCAD, which is ahead of a bigger movement. The thing is we don’t know the direction yet. After the flag patten, the price created a rectangle formation. So, simply speaking, the price is currently in a tight range. The way price action enthusiast trade this is by buying when the price breaks the upper line of this pattern and selling when the price breaks its lower line.
The new week begins with a complete risk-off mode in the market. Stock bears have finally caught their breath and their short positions are no longer negative. What’s the reason behind this sharp reversal? It may be the last week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. It could also be growing fears about a new COVID wave in China, or it may be the fear of a bursting bubble as 10-year-olds become day traders on the Robin Hood app. There are always factors behind every movement.
But in our analysis the focus isn’t about analyzing the ‘why’ instead we focus on analyzing the ‘what’, as in, what’s happening to the price and where is it heading.
So, with the ‘what’ in mind, let’s take a look at the DAX which started to drop with a head and shoulders pattern. The broken neckline gave the green light for the drop while the broken mid-term up trendline increased the bearish momentum. From that, we can see that 23.6% of the post-corona-reversal has been retraced. In my opinion, as long as the price stays above the 38.2% Fibonacci level, sentiment is bullish. What about a breakout? Well, that can get ugly.
The NZDUSD, which we mentioned last week, referring to its weekly chart, was creating a shooting star on the long-term down trendline. The shooting star pattern developed into a slightly bigger, but also bearish candlestick pattern. The price did indeed bounce from the downtrend line, giving us a very handsome sell signal.
Today we’re finishing up with an update on the EURCAD, which we mentioned at the beginning of June. We’d said that the 1.505 support level looked strong and should help buyers initiate a proper upswing, breaking the upper line of the flag. That’s why I’m not surprised by the fact that the price did exactly that! As long as the price stays above the upper line of the flag, sentiment remains positive.
There is little doubt the Fed was dovish, and the gravy train is going nowhere with future asset purchases continuing at the current pace of $80b p/m and MBS $60b p/m, which should underpin risk for some time. Judging by the bank’s economic projections (and dot plot) interest rates are not going up well past 2023, and the conversation on yield curve control (YCC) was certainly explored a few times, something Powell said was still “an open question”.
One suspects if they are going to announce YCC it will take place in the September meeting, and that meeting will be a biggy as it will give them a decent stretch to see how their many programs, not to mention economics, are evolving and the impact they are having on getting them towards its mandate.
When we consider YCC, I would expect the Fed to focus on the 3-5-year Treasury curve, more akin to what the RBA is doing than the BoJ, although there are a ton of questions around its commitment and of course what level (of yield) would they target.
Real Treasury yields promoting a bid in gold
For now, though we see a solid move lower in nominal yields, with the Fed importantly managing to generate a positive move higher in inflation expectations, with 5-yr Breakeven rates moving +3bp and above 1% for the first time since 9 March. This has resulted in US 5-year real Treasury yields collapsing 11bp to -70bp. For gold traders, this is all that matters and for gold bulls, it is the perfect storm, especially when married with such as the bearish trend in the USD.
Gold has been happy to track the 1750 to 1650 range since mid-April, and I have argued many times, the answer lies in the bond market and it appears to be playing out – Is this the time we finally see a solid break of the range?
The move in bond yields has propelled the NAS100, which will feed off lower yields every day, with the Fed keeping the punchbowl in the mix for as long as it takes. On the other hand, the dour economic projections have really made it clear that the Fed sees the prospect of a V-shaped recovery as incredibly low, so we’ve seen the Russell 2000 lower by 2.6%, while the S&P500 fell 0.5%, held back by financials (thanks to the flatter yield curve), and energy (crude fell 2.2%). Asia is feeding off these leads and risk is under pressure, with traders taking a bit off the top.
The USD is heading lower longer-term
If we consider the Russell 2000 is more reflective of inward factors and the US economy, it perhaps tells us why the USD is also being further shunned. The US is no longer the standout and almost isolated destination for global savings that it has been in recent years, and investors now have a choice and have redistributed capital accordingly. Lower yields are certainly incentivising an offer in the USD too, especially with raised prospects of YCC the months ahead. Why? Because if the Fed is going to add an extra measure to further increase its balance sheet through unlimited bond purchases, to fix a specific parts of the Treasury curve at a given yield, then it just increases the prospect of deeper negative real yields and an ever bigger balance sheet.
After a big move in the USD – Trading FX from a tactical standpoint
From a tactical perspective, the USD may still in the doghouse, but if the S&P500 is looking at the Fed’s dour economic projections, the index could find a few headwinds in the near-term. Despite liquidity, if the S&P500 tracks lower then global growth proxies such as AUD, CAD and MXN may also struggle near-term. It makes the currency crosses become a more attractive trading vehicle.
I am watching EURCAD. After some messy price action, the buyers are starting to get a better say here and should crude come off further and we start to see a few more sellers in the S&P500 then the funding currencies (EUR, JPY, CHF) will outperform. Whether this starts to trend is questionable, but the battle lines are drawn.
If playing the USD, AUDUSD is looking more vulnerable, but EURUSD is still strong and would be a preference if keeping the USD in play.
We see price still holding the 5-day EMA and there are few reasons to be short with any genuine conviction on current price action – happy to stay bullish here, where a close above 1.1383 would open up 1.1500. Will turn more neutral on a break of 1.1321.
New week starts without any excessive fireworks. Risk ON mode continues, so safe havens are trading lower and global indices are flirting with the new mid-term highs. Optimism can be widely seen across the globe. If we could name a one reason why it is all happening, we would say: NFP. The Friday’s number shocked and probably killed all the remaining bears (if they were still any left).
SP500 starts this week on the front foot. We have a small sideways movement but it should not concern the buyers. Bears probably can see a head and shoulders pattern here but we had so many of them on this chart that I guess, that no one believes in them anymore. In general, they are great, trustworthy formations but in order to trade them, one should wait for the breakout of the neckline, which was not happening here.
Quick update about the EURCAD, which we mentioned few days ago. We were above crucial support on the 1.505 and we said, that from this point, the upswing should start. It did but unfortunately it did not last long. Buyers managed only to test the upper line of the flag and that was it. Currently, the price is about to test the 1.505 again and for the range traders, this can be an interesting mid-term buying opportunity, again.
Interesting situation can be seen on our very own Swiss Franc index, which perfectly shows you the sentiment towards the CHF. Last few weeks are terrible but it seems that Franc has found a place to rest. This is the long-term up trendline connecting higher lows since the April 2019. We have also one horizontal support, which worked for some time but was eventually broken on Friday. Comeback above the orange area can be an interesting buying opportunity.
Are there still any bears on the market? Will, we will give them some rest and time to reflect on the decisions they made in the past few weeks. In our videos, we warned them many times not to go against the FED. We said that they should not seek for logic or sense out there. Trading these days is crazy and we just have to adjust to the fact that markets and the strict macroeconomic approach are broken.
In today’s analysis, we will focus on the Euro, where traders have been enjoying a flawless upswing.
On the weekly chart the EURJPY created a double bottom formation, which looks very promising for long-term buyers. One long-term down trendline was already broken and currently buyers are aiming for a second one. Before they get there, they’ll have to break the horizontal resistance at the 38,2% level, which has been extremely powerful so far. Powerful enough to initiate a bearish reversal, or at least a small correction.
Next is the EURCAD, where the price is inside a long-term flag formation. It seems like that flag is coming to an end as the price doesn’t want to go lower than 1.505, which is currently a crucial support. As long, as the price stays above this area, the sentiment is positive and traders can think about a great risk to reward ratio.
We’ll end this with the EURCHF, which has been enjoying three great weeks. The price broke two crucial down trendlines and is currently aiming at a strong horizontal resistance, created by two Fibonacci levels: 23,6% and 38,2%. Furthermore, this area is strengthened by 2019 lows, so it seems like a great occasion to take profit action, for some at least.
In today’s analysis, we will focus on the EUR as we have a nice depreciation movement here caused by one of the ECB members. In his interview, Olli Rehn from European Central Bank said, the ECB “will announce a package of stimulus measures at its next policy meeting in September that should overshoot investors’ expectations.” That was enough for the Euro bears to increase their selling activities. EUR plunged.
We were expecting bigger movement on EURUSD on Wednesday. Everything thanks to the sideways trend locked inside of the triangle pattern. EURUSD decided to brake the lower line of this pattern, which was in line with those fundamental comments from the ECB official. Yesterday, we got a small flag and another leg down. Currently, the price paused but considering the general sentiment, we are anticipating a further slide here.
EURGBP was going up for the past 14 weeks in a row! Seems that the time for a correction has finally come. We do have a good place for that as we are on the long-term horizontal resistance. Sellers obviously got a boost from the comments from the ECB and they needed that as the situation on the GBP was not encouraging to purchase Sterling. Correction should aim the mid-term support around 0.91
Last one is EURCAD, where we do also have a good bearish setup. Few days ago, the price successfully tested the combination of horizontal and dynamic resistances. The price went down, giving us a sell signal. In addition to that, EURCAD is currently attacking a mid-term support around 1.477. Once the price will close a day below the yellow area, the sell signal will be triggered.
First instrument in this video will be the USDCHF, where You can clearly see the strength of the Swiss Frank. It all started at the beginning of the month, when the price made a false breakout from the pennant. Proper sell signal was triggered on the 10th of May, when the USDCHF broke two major long-term supports. Yesterday, the price renewed the sell signal by breaking the lower line of the flag and mid-term dynamic support. Current target for this drop is the long-term up trendline connecting higher lows since the February 2018.
Now, EURUSD, which made a significant reversal and created a strong bullish candle with a long tail and large green body. This can be a proper double bottom formation but the buy signal will be triggered only when the price will beat this month’s highs.
EURCAD is also having a good time. Here, it all started with a false breakout of the lower line of the symmetric triangle pattern. Currently, buyers are on the run and they have high chances of reaching the upper line of this formation, which would mean a mid-term buy signal.
Yesterday, we had few interesting movements but I think that the most important one, happened on the EURUSD.
With yesterday’s upswing. The main pair, managed to break the upper line of the symmetric triangle, which was a mid-term, dynamic resistance. In addition to that, we broke the horizontal resistance, which was with us, since the 2nd of May. Today, buyers successfully used that line as a support. With this kind of movement, the sentiment is positive.
Next instrument is the EURCAD, which yesterday went higher in line with the EURUSD, but today, the price is going down. The drop is still fresh and was caused by the better employment data from Canada. Both setups were very similar but it seems that in this case, the breakout will be false, which will be a great occasion to sell.
Now, two pairs with RUB. Both of them are one step from a major buy signal. USDRUB has a flag bouncing from the support and EURRUB has a bullish rectangle. In both cases, price closing a day above the upper lines of those patterns, will be an invitation to go long.
Having reversed from 1.3325-15 resistance, the USDCAD is declining towards 1.3210 but the ten-week old ascending support-line, at 1.3185, could confine the pair’s downside then after. Should prices continue trading southwards past-1.3185, the 1.3125 and the 1.3080 may offer intermediate halts during the pair’s slip to 1.3055. If at all the pair manage to surpass the 1.3325 upside barrier, the 1.3380 & the 1.3420 can please buyers prior to challenging them with 1.3440-45 resistance-region. Given the pair’s ability to cross the 1.3445 mark, the 1.3500 & the 1.3565 might gain market attention.
Alike USDCAD, the EURCAD is also gradually slipping in direction to a TL support, at 1.5060, which if broken highlights the importance of 1.5000 psychological magnet. During the pair’s sustained dip beneath 1.5000, the 1.4950 & the 1.4900 seem to be buffers ahead of fetching the quote to 1.4845 support. Alternatively, the 1.5170 trend-line resistance can limit the pair’s nearby advances, breaking which 1.5180 & 1.5240 could appear on Bulls’ radars. However, the 1.5300-1.5310 horizontal-zone may restrict the pair’s rally above 1.5240, if not then 1.5400 can come back on the chart.
Failure to overcome the 0.9075-85 resistance-area presently drags the NZDCAD to 0.8950 support-line, breaking which the 0.8930, the 0.8915 and the 0.8900 may entertain the sellers. Though, pair’s refrain to respect the 0.8900 round-figure might not hesitate calling the 61.8% FE level of 0.8870 as a quote. Meanwhile, the 0.9000 & the 0.9030 can act as adjacent resistances for the pair before fueling it to the 0.9060 resistance-line. Should prices surge past-0.9060, the 0.9075-85 and the 0.9110 can become optimists favorites.