EUR/JPY Structural Breakout Will Determing the Next TP

The EUR/JPY has formed a structure which look like a bullish wedge, but we need to pay attention to the direction of the breakout.

131.35 breakout should be targeting 131.65 as the first target. Further continuation up, with a positive momentum should target 132.02-132.20 zone. However if something happens and the bullish wedge fails to provide the breakout to the upside watch 130.87 level. Below, a bearish breakout will happen towards the 130.63 and 130.50 zone.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Cheers and safe trading,

Nenad

 

EUR/JPY Downtrend is Strong but Watch for a Pullback

The EURJPY is strongly bearish. We could see a pullback which could get the price towards the POC zone.

The POC in the EJ comes within 129.70-80. 1-2-3 could form just there and if that happens new sellers will join. Selling pressure should continue towards 129.35, 129.92 and possibly 128.55. We can also see the W H4 camarilla pivot and the trend line which constitute a confluence for fresh selling. Watch for a move up then new selling.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Cheers and safe trading,

Nenad

 

Weekly Forex Commentary March 14, 2021

EUR/USD ranges this week severely diminish due to problems within the EUR universe. EUR/JPY remains light years overbought while EUR/NZD and EUR/CAD maintain oversold conditions. EUR/CAD broke its 5 year average at 1.4955 and trades ranges from 1.4955 to 1.4547 then 1.4427. EUR/GBP is oversold however it trades between 0.8740 to 0.8414 to the 5 and 10 year average. EUR/USD cross pairs will determine EUR fate this week to direction. 

GBP/NZD from this week’s close at 1.9374  sits on supports at 1.9330 and 1.9246. Last week vitals from 1.9318 to 1.9188 and the week prior 1.9318 to 1.9176. GBP/AUD from its close at 1.7927 contains resistance at 1.7934 then 1.8134 and last week 1.8130 to 1.7905 then 1.7885 to 1.8130. Both are problem pairs entering into the new week.

Week 7 to massively overbought JPY cross pairs. For the month, NZD/JPY rose 100 pips, barely 200 for AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY, 400 for GBP/JPY and a rare day for 400 pips to CAD/JPY. CAD/JPY beat USD/CAD by 100 pips as USD/CAD traded 300 pips. traditionally, USD/CAD always trades wider ranges than CAD/JPY as CAD/JPY is the follow pair to USD/CAD.

USD/CHF and USD/JPY begin the week deeply overbought while USD/CAD is severely oversold. The strategy this week is long USD/CAD, short CAD/JPY and refrain from trading laggard currencies, USD/CHF and USD/JPY. For problem pair USD/JPY lower must break the 5 year average at 108.98 then 106.43. Above at 109.00’s and 110 is maximum to USD/JPY averages dating to 1999. 

While GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF are overbought, GBP/CAD matches EUR/CAD to oversold and GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD as problem pairs. GBP/USD like EUR/USD is hostage to its cross pairs for direction. 

AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD both broke below vital points at 0.9737 and 0.9073. With NZD/CAD’s break lower, NZD/USD’s close at 0.7173 sits 53 pips above its vital break at 0.7120. Overbought NZD/JPY and NZD/CHF will assist NZD/USD’s eventual break at 0.7120. Then AUD, GBP and EUR slide further. 

AUD/USD big break lower is located at 0.7641. AUD achieves this challenge by breaks lower at 0.7716 and 0.7679. 

Gold remain inside 1815 to 1642. DXY 91.43 Vs 92.78 and 89.95 below. The 2 year yield broke above reported 0.1511 to trade 2 points higher to 0.1711. The 10 year yield at its 1.625 close, trades inside its wide ranges from 1.3305 to 1.8448. 

Respectfully readers, I work extraordinarily hard consistently over 17 years to write the most accurate levels, entries and targets, to bring the most accurate data and market concepts. Don’t believe my words as all is documented here.

GBP/JPY Vs GBP/USD and USD/JPY – March 6th, 2021

GBP/USD last week fell 236 pips from 1.4015 to 1.3776 while overbought GBP/JPY rose 257 pips from 148.14 to 150.71.

Known since the 1930’s, the Japanese pegged GBP/JPY to UK Gold for not only economic viability but the first incursion to the western world of finance. The standard to hold GBP/JPY to the UK held throughout Bretton Woods. Upon the 1972 free float, GBP/JPY became attached permanently with high +90% correlations to GBP/USD.

All JPY cross pairs followed with high and positive correlations as AUD/USD and AUD/JPY, NZD/USD and NZD/JPY, EUR/USD and EUR/JPY while USD/CAD and CAD/JPY became polar opposites as both permanently correlate negatively. USD/CHF and CHF/JPY traditionally also hold opposite correlations.

The Japanese offered not only a double trade but GBP/JPY and GBP/USD as the same exact currency pairs. The same principle holds true for EUR/JPY and EUR/USD, AUD/USD and AUD/JPY and NZD/USD and NZD/JPY. The double trade is permanent for USD/CAD and CAD/JPY.

Why JPY cross pairs remain overbought into week 6 amd not falling with counterpart currencies is the USD/JPY problem to correlations. While GBP/USD correctly correlates to GBP/JPY at +94%, GBP/JPY also not correctly correlates to USD/JPY at +83%. A further problem exists as GBP/USD correlates to USD/JPY at +46 %. All correlations are not only running positive but this situation is the exact same for AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, EUR/JPY, CAD/JPY and explains why prices remain high and overbought.

Positive correlations are the result of exchange rate prices and relationships to moving averages since correlations are found within the context of averages. USD/JPY trades above vital 105.70,  GBP/USD above 1.3697 and GBP/JPY above 144.80. Correlations are positive because prices trade above respective high / low averages.

Required to assist GBP/JPY to drop is GBP/USD breaks 1.3697 or USD/JPY trades below 105.70. GBP/JPY then decides to fully correlate to USD/JPY or GBP/USD. GBP/JPY in every instant follows GBP/USD as the 91 year correlation and order of currency markets.

Current GBP/JPY trades 1156 pips above GBP/USD and 2506 pips below GBP/CAD. GBP/JPY larger range from GBP/USD becomes 144.08 and 1.5564. GBP/JPY above is located the 14 year average at 155.38 and the 10 year at 148.36.

Prior to the 2016 interest rate changes by the central banks, the market order to currency pair arrangement existed as GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF then GBP/CAD.

The new order is arranged as GBP/CHF, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY then GBP/CAD and seen as GBP/CHF 1.2855, GBP/USD 1.3820, GBP/JPY 149.86 or 1.4986 then GBP/CAD 1.7292. Much daylight exists for GBP/JPY to trade freely between GBP/USD and GBP/CAD yet 250 pips traded last week from a distance of 1100 and 2500 pips between exchange rates.

Why GBP/CHF and all currency  pairs arranged as Other Currency / CHF dropped from contention as support is due to the uniqueness to the SNB’s interest rate system. Libor is miles from actual interest rates as first comes Saron, Call Money rates and the most vital Debt Register Claims.

JPY cross pairs overall contain downside moves from GBP/JPY at 300 pips and 200 for AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY.

USD/JPY for the week is not only light years overbought but the 5 year average is located at 109.01. A good target is found at 106.65.

GBP/JPY big break lower is located at the 10 year average at 148.38. A break then GBP/JPY trades 146.00’s easily.

GBP/USD this week opens between 1.3768 and 1.3840. Below 1.3768 challenges most vital 1.3697, above 1.3840 then GBP/USD travels much higher.

GBP/CHF and GBP/CAD run good and positive correlations at +93% and +96 % for GBP/CAD. For GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD remain problems as correlations run negative at -43% and -64% for GBP/AUD.

GBP/JPY

Included are GBP/JPY moving averages from 5 day to 253 days. The averages are perfect and derived from the ECB. The first number is the day average followed by trading days then the average.

A 20 day average is actually 15 days, a 50 day average is actually 36 days. Trading day averages to factor perfectly start at the beginning of every year then the numbers increase as days trade. A 50 day average is most stable as it only trades 36 to 50 days.

A 5 day average begins Monday at 2 days, then 3 for Tuesday and Wednesday and 4 for Thursday. A full 5 day average only trades on Fridays.

5 Day     5             149.2391

10 Day  9             149.1325

20 Day  15           148.3808

50 Day  36           145.2691

100 Day               71           142.5398

200 Day               143       139.9417

253 Day               180       139.1231

As GBP/JPY trades lower then the averages drop.

Targets

Targets are not only known miles ahead but targets stack to watch trades unfold.

Current targets: 149.7549, 149.8496, 149.5086, 148.1852, 146.0887, 143.7901, 143.0356.

The ECB and most central banks factor exchange rates to 6 decimal places and 4 for USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs and I follow the ECB exactly.

Did Elon Musk Tweet Anything About the Euro?

Experts say, that fundamentally, many traders are anticipating rates to increases soon. Furthermore, investors are pricing in the swift recovery in the Euro Block nations.

The first instrument is the main currency pair, the EURUSD. Here, we have a beautiful inverse head and shoulders pattern. At the beginning of the week, the price broke the neckline of this pattern and later used that neckline as a support. The upswing from today’s morning, gave the ultimate confirmation and left no doubts about the long-term direction for the pair. In the short-term, we can expect a small bearish correction but in the long-term, the sentiment is definitely positive.

Now the EURCHF, where the pair is so far having one of the best weeks on record. It all started with a breakout from the symmetric triangle pattern and a breakout from the horizontal resistance at 1.087. What happened next is just pure momentum, and stop losses-activation, spiced up by the general weakness of the Swiss Franc. In the short-term some form of a correction can happen but in the long-term, the sentiment is very bullish.

I will finish this with the weekly chart of the EURJPY, where the price is above two major supports. The first one is the broken downtrend line, which was connecting lower highs from 2014 and the second one is at 127, which was respected many times as a support and resistance since 2015. As long as the price stays above those two supports, the long-term sentiment remains positive.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Weekly Round Up – February 21st, 2021

AUD/USD broke its long standing and much written line at 0.7821 and traded 57 pips to 0.7877. Above 0.7821, AUD/USD ranges between 0.7821 to the 10 year average at 0.8305 or 484 pips. Below 0.7821, AUD/USD trades 0.7821 to 0.7308 or 513 pips. Below 0.7821 exists 0.7605.

DXY last week maintained its 148 pip range between 89.95 to 91.43. Above 91.43 next targets 92.78 in a 135 pip range.

GBP as written in the last post maintains deep overbought status across all GBP pairs except GBP/NZD. Watch 1.9136 this week for best moves.

EUR/USD opens in fairly perfect neutrality however ranges continue to compress. Problem pair EUR/JPY and all JPY cross pairs maintain deeply overbought status for week 4. EUR/CAD, EUR/NZD and EUR/AUD open the week massive oversold. EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD will provide the best moves.

Stand clear EUR/CHF as AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF will provide better movements.

NZD/USD 0.7267 then 0.7356 Vs 0.7267 and 0.7990. NZD/CAD is overbought while NZD/JPY heading into week 4 maintains richter scale overbought status.

Overall, NZD/USD traded 200 pips from 0.7100’s to 0.7300’s for the past 2 months and provided support to GBP and AUD to allow both to move higher. Explains the divergence seen in EUR/NZD Vs GBP/NZD this week.

USD/JPY watch 104.97 and USD/CAD 1.2587 Vs 1.2826.

 

 

EUR/USD Vs USD/JPY, Close Prices and Next Week

EUR/USD most significant high/ low point is located at 1.2026. A break however at 1.2020 represent a wholesale trend change for a lower EUR/USD. Current EUR/USD trades above 1.2026.

USD/JPY on the other side trades above its significant high/ low point at 104.72. Both EUR/USD and USD/JPY are mis aligned. Either USD/JPY remains above 104.72 and trades higher or EUR/USD must break below 1.2026 and 1.2020 to trade much lower to 1.1700’s. In the interim, both pairs are in a standoff.

Noted from USD/JPY constituents, USD/CAD trades below its high / low point at 1.2867 and USD/CHF below 0.8980. USD/JPY remains the outlier USD pair for the past two weeks.

From the January 3rd long term forecasts, the next major USD/JPY inflection point is located at 106.00 exactly and USD/JPY traded to 105.75 then dropped. While 106.00 above represents the next break, below is located the 10 year average at 103.33 and a 267 pip range.

EUR/USD however must break below its 10 year average at 1.2107 to target the vital breaks at 1.2026 and 1.2020. Above is located the 14 year average at 1.2625. As EUR/USD trades above 1.2107 then the wide range becomes 1.2625 to 1.2107 and a 518 pip range. EUR/USD overall hasn’t changed its 518 pip range since January 8 as important MA’s are dropping simultaneously.

Most important point at 1.2625 however is dropping ever so slowly week to week as is 1.2107. A much lower EUR/USD is ahead in weeks to come.

Between 1.2107 and 1.2624 exists minor daily and weekly trade points.

USD/JPY however above 106.00 exists a vital average every 100 pips until the 5 year average at 109.09. USD/JPY’s counterpart due to the exact same pair is CHF/JPY and it trades above 116.20.

For USD/JPY today, best shorts are located at 105.37 and 105.30 to target 104.90. Longs are located at 104.31 and 104.37 to target 104.64. The break at 104.72 however represents a lower USD/JPY next week.

EUR/USD close price today is forecast at 1.2109 and below 1.2137. This places EUR/USD next week between 1.2082 to 1.2137 for next week.

USD/JPY above 104.72 represents a problem for AUD/JPY as it trades above its 5 year average at 79.70 and NZD/JPY trades above its 10 year average at 75.42. Both are mandatory breaks for AUD/USD to trade lower and break its vital MA at its rising line at 0.7557 and NZD/USD 0.7070.

Any price today for AUD/JPY ar 81.57 is a good short to target 81.17 and today’s close price is forecast at 80.96.

Not only are all JPY cross pairs richter scale overbought but most trade near vital inflection points. EUR/JPY 128.24 is next above Vs below at 125.93 or a 231 pip range. Close price forecast today for EUR/JPY at 126.83 places EUR/JPY at perfect neutral to begin next week.

GBP/JPY trades deeply overbought between vital 5 and 10 year averages at 142.47 and 148.27. Good short today is found at 145.26 to target the close price forecast at 144.08. Quite a distance for a Friday. Above 144.08 then GBP/JPY remains deeply overbought heading into next week.

Overbought GBP/USD forecast close price is located at 1.3741. Shorts today are located at 1,.3866 and 1.3857 to target 1.3772 then 1.3741.

For oversold EUR/CAD, next week 1.5471 high/ low point we’re watching closely.

For high flyer and wide ranger GBP/AUD net week 1.7900 represents the big break. 1.7900 broke this week and traded to 1.7785. EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD’s counterpart must break 1.5923 to trade higher. GBP/AUD break at 1.7900 represents an alignment to EUR/AUD as both now trade below respective MA’s.

For oversold USD/CAD, close price today is forecast 1.2753. Shorts today are located at 1.2787 and 1.2773 to target 1.2731 then 1.2696.

Oversold EUR/GBP trades just above its 5 year average at 0.8725.

S&P bottom and long entry is located at 3896.71 and just ahead of 3861.36. Long target is located at 3906.58 for a quick 10 point trade today.

DAX today must trade back to at least 13970.70. Note most vital today at 13926.28 then 14029.00, 14084.78 then 14156.47. Above 13970.70 targets 14029.00.

 

Nikkei 225 Trade Feb 10 to 11 2021

Consistent to trade and achieve targets for stock indices, the DAX and S&P’s over two and three days completed targets and today is offered the Nikkei 225 from its close at 29562.93.

The Nikkei 225 is the big mover in relation to the DAX an at average of 70 and 140 point moves, the S&P’s at 30 point ranges, Canada’s TSX Composite at 91 points per day, Australia’s ASX 200 at 34 points per day, Nasdaq at 68 points per day, Euro Stoxx 50 at 18 points per day and FTSE 100 at 40 points per day.

Responsible for the Nikkei to move in wide ranges is the factor of Japanese Interest rates to begin with Call Rates, Yen Tibor for onshore and yields. Yen Tibor is the rate to factor Japanese financial instruments in Japan and Euroyen is employed to factor EUR/JPY and financial instruments outside Japan such as Libor.

The bottom at 29415.11 factors as bottoms for Japanese and USD rates however its imperative to trade the Nikkei 225 by Japanese interest rates only as USD rates fails to account correctly for day and 24 hour trades to levels, targets and support and resistance points.

Ranges over last 5 trade days: 219, 228, 581, 224 and 278. A fairly average daily move for the Nikkei is 147 points beginning at 73 points.

Most significant: 29397.23, 29581.40, 29729.55

Bottom. 29415.11. Up target 29733.52

Long 29415.11 to target 29489.02.

Follow by: 29424.34, 29433.58, 29452.06, 29470.53 and 29489.02

Short 29733.52 to target 29648.23

Follow by: 29724.29, 29715.05, 29696.58, 29687.35, 29678.12, 29668.89, 29659.67 and 29650.43.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Dollar Tries a Reversal. Indices Still Hold Up High

Fear&Greed Index points towards a bearish movement.

Put/Call Ratio as well.

Gold still in positive territory despite the recent drop.

Dax settles above 13800.

SP500 bounces from the 3780.

Dollar tries a reversal.

EURUSD touches the long-term up trendline.

EURJPY breaks and settles above a major horizontal resistance.

AUDJPY finally breaks the neckline of the iH&S formation.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/JPY: Long-Term Elliott Wave Analysis for Trading Year 2021

The EUR/JPY monthly chart is building a lengthy contracting triangle chart pattern. But the pattern seems to be running out of space.

A breakout will therefore probably take place in 2021. Let’s review the wave and chart patterns.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY 07.01.2021 Monthly chart

The EUR/JPY has possibly completed an ABCDE (pink) triangle pattern at the most recent low. The 5 wave structure could break both ways:

  • If we follow the wave patterns mentioned in the chart, then a bullish breakout has better odds (green arrows).
  • A break above the long-term moving averages and resistance trend line would confirm that breakout.
  • A break below the 21 ema zone could indicate a pullback to test the support trend line. A bullish bounce (blue arrow) is still possible.
  • A bearish breakout below the support trend line indicates an opposite triangle breakout (orange dotted arrows).

Of course, there is always the chance that a triangle pattern could become extended. The wave C might prove to be unfinished. For now, the triangle pattern is reaching a point where a breakout is becoming more likely.

It is important to keep an eye on chart patterns on lower time frames once the breakout occurs. The appearance of reversal or continuation chart patterns could indicate whether the breakout has a chance of success. Or whether it will turn into a failed breakout pattern.

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,
Chris Svorcik

Are We One Step Closer to a Major Correction?

Gold advances higher after the breakout from the flag formation.

Brent with a potential double top formation.

Nasdaq escaped from the rising wedge pattern.

DAX bounced from the horizontal resistance again and it is starting to look ugly.

EURUSD with a triple top formation.

EURJPY drawing a possible false breakout pattern. Major sell signal on the horizon.

EURNZD going lower after the price broke the lower line of the flag and later tested it as a resistance.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Great Occasions on The JPY

The Santa rally is here; indices are skyrocketing with the DAX finally hitting all time highs. Pretty remarkable if you ask me but in today’s analysis I will focus on the Japanese Yen, which is part of three very interesting setups.

Let’s start  what I believe is the best pair, the EURJPY. Here, we definitely have a positive sentiment, which originally started with the inverse head and shoulders pattern in Q4. After the price broke the neckline, we got a very nice upswing followed by a flat correction shaped like a rectangle. Yesterday, the price broke the upper line of the resistance and today, for the first time since August, it’s trading above the major horizontal resistance of 126.7. Once the price closes above this resistance, we’ll get a proper buy signal.

Now the AUDJPY, where the price is preparing for a major buy signal. First of all, the AUDJPY broke the crucial long-term down trendline, connecting lower highs since 2014. Furthermore, the price created an inverse head and shoulders pattern and the price is currently trying to break the neckline. A breakout from that resistance level would trigger a proper long-term buy signal.

Finally the USDJPY, a combination of two weak currencies, which leads to a sideways. Recently, the price bounced from a combination of dynamic and horizontal resistances. If the price stays below those resistances, there’s no buy signal. We will however see a buy signal if one of two scenarios plays out; either if the price manages to close the day above the two resistance levels, or a if there’s a breakout of the mid-term dynamic support connecting higher lows since mid December. As for now, we’ll wait, the signal will most likely come soon.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/JPY Bullish Outlook at 125 Support or Above 126.25

The EUR/JPY is testing the previous top at 127. Price action did confirm the previous expected bullish bounce at the 50% Fib.

Now, the uptrend has reached a pivotal moment: will the uptrend be able to continue above the top? Or will a larger bearish pullback take control?

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY 21.12.2020 daily chart

The EUR/JPY has a better chance of continuing with the uptrend for the moment. Mainly because of:

  1. Te bullish break above the resistance trend lines (dotted orange)
  2. The strong push above and away from the 21 ema zone
  3. The wave patterns suggest a completed ABC (grey) correction within wave 4 (orange)

The key decision zone is the 21 ema high and low. A bullish bounce would indicate that an uptrend continuation (green arrows) is probable

A bearish breakout, however, indicates a deeper retracement (red arrows). In that case, the immediate wave 123 (grey) pattern failed but the larger uptrend remains intact (blue arrows) via an expanded wave 4 (orange 4’).

On the 4 hour chart, price action bounced at the resistance of the Wizz 8 level and previous top. This could indicate an ABC (black) pattern within wave 4 (pink).

A bearish breakout could drop towards the Fibonacci targets around 124.50-125-125.50, where a bullish bounce is expected (green arrow).

An immediate bullish breakout (blue arrows) could take place if price action turns around and breaks above the local resistance zone.

EUR/JPY 21.12.2020 4 hour chart

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

 

 

Indices and Commodities Climb Higher

Commodities are enjoying the weaker USD and advancing higher.

Indices also going up, not disturbed even by new lockdowns.

EURUSD is about to test crucial horizontal resistance.

EURJPY in a sideways trend below 126.7.

AUDJPY with an inverse head and shoulder and breakout of a long-term down trendline.

USDCAD still near lows after the breakout of major horizontal support.

GBPCHF with a breakout of the lower line of the triangle.

EURAUD with a possible false bearish breakout from the rectangle.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/JPY Bulls are Waiting in the Ambush

The EUR/JPY is ranging but there is a possibility that the price will bounce. Watch for the POC zone or break higher.

At this point we can see that the price is rejecting D H3 and the lower trend line. We could see a bounce towards the D H5/W H5 128.92. However if we see a retracement, watch for 126.70. There, buyers might be waiting to spike the price up. The final target is 128.92. A break below 126.60 and bears are taking control.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Cheers and safe trading,

Nenad

 

EUR/JPY Descending Channel Formed

The EURJPY has come to the top of the channel. Descending channel could tank the price.

124.46-56 is the POC zone. We can see the channel top making a confluence with D H5 camarilla pivot. If the price drops 126.28, 126.17 are targets. The break below 126.17 should target 125.96 and 125.85. A close above the channel will possibly invalidate the bearish setup. Selling at the top is my favourite scenario here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Commodities Up, Dollar Down Ahead of The NFP

Gold tests 1850 USD/oz resistance

Oil breaks the upper line of the flag and aims higher

American Indices keeping close to the all-time highs

European Indices, on the other hand, performing slightly worse

Dollar Index going deeper again

EURUSD continuing a great upswing

EURJPY testing important horizontal resistance. Double top possible

AUDJPY bounces from the neckline to test important horizontal support

USDCAD continues the downswing after breaking crucial horizontal support

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Correction on Gold and Oil Accelerates

Gold accelerates with a bullish reversal. One horizontal and one dynamic resistance are broken, time to test the 1850 USD/oz.

Brent and WTI go lower but still inside the flag.

Nasdaq continues the upswing.

DAX bounces from the lower line of the channel up.

SP500 bounces from the horizontal support.

Dollar Index collapses.

EURUSD aims significantly higher.

EURJPY surges after the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern.

USDCAD goes deeper after breaking crucial long-term horizontal support.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/JPY Decision Zone at 50% Fib at 123.40

The EUR/JPY has reached a decisive support zone. The break or bounce moment will offer traders an interesting spot for trade setups.

This article reviews the potential breakouts, wave patterns, and chart patterns.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY daily chart

The EUR/JPY is testing the resistance trend lines and 21 ema zone:

  • A bullish breakout confirms the uptrend in wave 1 or 3 (purple).
  • A deeper bearish pullback could indicate a wave 1-2 (purple).

A bullish break is expected to develop as follows:

  • It could see a break, pullback and continuation pattern.
  • A bullish daily candlestick should confirm the bullish break.
  • This is valid as long as the bullish candle appears in about the next 5 trading days (the HMA 20 should remain above the 21 ema high).

A bearish pullback could see two variations:

  • A test and bounce at the 144 ema for a wave 1-2 (purple).
  • A bearish breakout (red dotted arrow) which invalidates (red circle) this wave pattern but not the entire uptrend because the 50% and 61.8% Fib remain support

On the 4 hour chart, price action has reached the last support zone if the current pullback is a wave 4 (blue). A deeper bearish breakout (yellow circle) indicates a wave 1-2 pattern instead. A full break below the bottom (red circle) invalidates the bullish outlook.

However, if price action manages to:

  • Break above the 21 ema zone.
  • And break above the resistance trend line.
  • Then the EUR/JPY would confirm the development wave 5 to the upside.

EUR/JPY 4 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

 

Dollar and Stock Markets Mature for a Correction

DAX makes contact with the first important resistance

SP500 corrects massive upswing from Monday

CAC stays above the major support after the false bearish breakout

Dollar Index goes lower after the head and shoulders pattern

EURUSD tests the first crucial horizontal resistance

USDCHF on the other hand, tests important support

EURJPY reverses higher after the false bearish breakout from the rectangle

Gold on the way to test the 1906 USD/oz

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.