USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Test Of Support At 1.2200

USD/CAD Video 06.05.21.

U.S. Dollar Is Under Strong Pressure Against Canadian Dollar

USD/CAD is currently trying to settle below the support at 1.2200 while the U.S. dollar is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index is currently testing the support at the 91 level. If the U.S. Dollar Index declines below this level, it will move towards the support at 90.70 which will be bearish for USD/CAD.

Today, U.S. reported that Initial Jobless Claims decreased from 590,000 (revised from 553,000) to 498,000 while Continuing Jobless Claims increased from 3.65 million (revised from 3.66 million) to 3.69 million.

Tomorrow, foreign exchange market traders will have a chance to take a look at additional employment data from U.S. and Canada. In the U.S., Non Farm Payrolls report is expected to show that U.S. economy added 978,000 jobs in April. Unemployment Rate report is projected to indicate that Unemployment Rate declined from 6% to 5.8%.

In Canada, Employment Change report is expected to show that Canadian economy lost 175,000 jobs in April. Unemployment Rate is expected to increase from 7.5% to 7.8%.

Technical Analysis

usd cad may 6 2021

USD to CAD managed to settle below the support at 1.2250 and gained strong downside momentum. Currently, USD to CAD is testing the next support level which is located at 1.2200. RSI moved into the oversold territory, but USD to CAD may gain additional downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

If USD to CAD settles below the support at 1.2200, it will move towards the next support level at 1.2170. A successful test of the support at 1.2170 will open the way to the test of the support at 1.2130.

On the upside, USD to CAD needs to stay above 1.2200 to have a chance to develop upside momentum in the near term. The next resistance level for USD to CAD is located at 1.2250.

If USD to CAD gets above this level, it will move towards the resistance at 1.2280. A move above this level will open the way to the test of the resistance at 1.2310.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/JPY Price Forecast – US Dollar Rallies Heading Towards Jobs Figure

The US dollar initially pulled back slightly during the course of the trading session on Thursday but then turned around to show signs of strength as we reached towards the ¥109.50 level yet again. At this point, it looks as if we are trying to go looking towards the ¥110 level. Keep in mind that Friday is the Non-Farm Payroll announcement, and that of course is going to continue to be influential as to where we go. Ultimately, this is a bullish run and we recently bounced from the 50 day EMA as well as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level that of course is a very positive sign.

USD/JPY Video 07.05.21

If we can break above the ¥110 level, then it is likely that we go looking towards the ¥111 level, which was the recent high. If we can break there, then we have a much longer term run higher. On the other hand, we could very well go back and forth in this general vicinity and simply grind. All things been equal, I have no interest in shorting this market until we break down below those hammers that caused the bounce in the first place. In general, this is a market that is very strong, but certainly will be waiting to see what the jobs number has to say. I would anticipate quite a bit of volatility during the trading session on Friday, as the market will probably have to readjust its expectations depending on whatever number comes out. There are wide and varied expectations for the figure coming out, so I anticipate more chaos than anything else.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/USD Price Forecast – British Pound Has Noisy Day as MPC Announces Tapering

The British pound has gone back and forth during the trading session on Thursday as the Monetary Policy Committee has come and gone, suggesting that tapering is coming in the bond market. That of course is bullish for the British pound, but at the same time we have been locked in a lot of support and resistance in this general vicinity.

GBP/USD Video 07.05.21

When you look at the 50 day EMA, has offered a bit of support as of late, so that is something worth paying attention to. Furthermore, we have the double bottom underneath there that continues to support the market as well. It is not until we break down below there that I think we could start to see the first “cracks in the ice” of the uptrend but if you are a seller, you then need to worry about the 1.35 level underneath which is attracting the 200 day EMA. Underneath there, then obviously the trend is done.

To the upside, the 1.40 level continues to be like a “brick wall for the market” and breaking above there on a daily close would be a massively bullish sign. In the short term, I think we simply go back and forth in the fact that we have the jobs number coming out on Friday certainly makes quite a bit of sense. Ultimately, this is a market that is been very volatile for the session, but it seems to have been little changed. Interesting to see this reaction, but at the end of the day I think people almost immediately turn their attention on the employment situation in America.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Very Noisy

The British pound has initially pulled back a bit during the course of the trading session on Thursday but turned around to show signs of strength again as the Bank of England is suggesting that they will be tapering bond purchases, which is a form of monetary policy tightening. This follows the Bank of Canada, as we are starting to see central banks try to get ahead of the reopening trade.

GBP/JPY Video 07.05.21

The Japanese yen continues to get beaten up, and that of course will not be any different here. The ¥150 level underneath is rather significantly supported, not only due to the fact that we have seen a bit of a bounce from there, but we have also seen the 50 day EMA coming into the picture. With that being the case, I think it is only a matter of time before buyers will come back into this market if we reach down towards that area.

On the other hand, it looks much more likely that we are going to go looking towards the ¥153.50 level, and then possibly reaching towards the ¥155 level. This is a market that has been in a very bullish move over the last several months, and now we are simply grinding back and forth in order to try and pick up more momentum while working off froth. Eventually, I anticipate that the buyers will continue to look it dips as value in a market that has been obviously one way for quite some time. I anticipate that the Friday market might be a little bit quiet ahead of the jobs number but if we get a good number out of the United States, we may get more “risk on behavior”, sending this pair higher.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Price Forecast -Euro Bounces From Major Figure

The Euro has bounced from the 1.20 level to show signs of strength again during the Thursday session. This front run the jobs number coming out of America so it will be interesting to see how this plays out. I do think that there is a little bit of resistance just above that could cause some issues, but at the end of the day we are in an uptrend and you could even make a little bit of an argument for a bullish flag or on shorter time frames a falling wedge.

EUR/USD Video 07.05.21

It is obvious that the 1.20 level would catch a lot of attention, and of course the 50 day EMA sitting there makes quite a bit of sense as far as support goes as well. With all of that in mind I think that what we are looking at is the possibility of a move back towards the highs that we made a couple of weeks ago. Ultimately, I think that this remains a short-term “buy on the dip” type of market, but if we were to break down below the 50 day EMA, perhaps after the jobs figure, then we will more than likely go looking towards the 200 day EMA underneath.

Remember, this pair does tend to be very choppy and sideways most of the time so although it is grinding higher, you will probably find more value buying the Euro against other currencies. In the short term though, the US dollar is on its back foot and as long as that continues to be the case in general, that will lift this pair and perhaps send it towards the 1.23 handle.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD Price Forecast – Continues to Build Up Pressure to the Upside

The Australian dollar initially pulled back during the course of the trading session on Thursday to reach down towards the 50 day EMA. Ultimately, it looks as if the market is trying to build up enough momentum to finally break above the 0.78 handle, which of course is the massive resistance barrier that the market has been fighting for some time. All things been equal, the market breaking above there could open up the possibility of a move to the 0.80 level given enough time. That of course is an area that is important from a longer-term standpoint, as you can see it clearly as resistance on the monthly chart.

AUD/USD Video 07.05.21

Ultimately, if we can break above that 0.80 region of resistance, this market will go much higher. It would then become a “buy-and-hold” situation, but overnight China decided that they were going to end all discussions involving trade with the Australians, so there was a little bit of a selloff that lasted just a short amount of time. Ultimately, the commodity boom should continue to lift the Australian dollar over the longer term, but obviously we have a lot of noise to deal with. The last couple of months have been very difficult, and it appears that we have more of the same ahead of us.

That being said, if we were to turn around and break below the 0.76 level it is likely that we could go looking towards the 0.75 level. If we break down below that handle, then I believe that the Australian dollar probably needs to “reset” closer to the 0.70 level which of course is an area that will attract a lot of attention due to the psychological importance of it.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for May 6, 2021

The Euro is trading higher against the U.S. Dollar as global risk appetite improved while traders focused on U.S. economic data that may provide clues on when the U.S. Federal Reserve might dial back monetary stimulus. A dip in U.S. Treasury yields also weighed on demand for the U.S. Dollar.

At 12:23 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.2052, up 0.0047 or +0.39%.

In economic news, Euro Zone retail sales rose by more than expected in March, data showed on Thursday, pointing to pent-up consumer demand as pandemic lockdowns ease.

The European Union’s statistics office Eurostat said on Thursday that retail sales in the 19 countries sharing the Euro jumped 2.7% month-on-month in March for a 12.0% year-on-year surge.

Daily EUR/USD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1986 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 1.2150 will change the main trend to up.

The short-term range is 1.2243 to 1.1704. The EUR/USD is currently trading on the strong side of its retracement zone at 1.2038 to 1.1974. This is giving it a slight upside bias. This zone is also new support.

The main range is 1.1603 to 1.2349. Its retracement zone at 1.1976 to 1.1888 is additional support.

The short-term and main retracement zones combine to form a support cluster at 1.1976 to 1.1974.

Another short-term range is 1.1704 to 1.2150. Its 50% level at 1.1927 is another potential support area. This level forms inside the main retracement zone.

The minor range is 1.2150 to 1.1986. Its 50% level at 1.2068 is the first upside target. Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on a test of this level. They are going to try to form a potentially bearish secondary lower top.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The early price action suggests the direction of the EUR/USD on Wednesday will be determined by trader reaction to 1.2038 and 1.2068.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.2068 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the minor bottom at 1.1986, followed by 1.1976.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.2068 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside with 1.2150 the next likely upside target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Analysis Today Including Key Price and Chart Patterns

The EUR/USD is building a bullish bounce at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, the 1.20 support zone, and the 144 and 233 ema area as expected in our EUR/USD video analysis.

This article will analyse the main targets for this bullish bounce. We will also take a look when to expect the next bearish price swing.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

EUR/USD 6.5.2021 4 hour chart

The EUR/USD seems to have completed a bearish wave A (grey) at the support zone. This occurred after price action completed 5 waves up (grey) within wave A (pink):

  1. The wave A (grey) is probably part of a larger bearish ABC zigzag (grey).
  2. The ABC (grey) pattern is expected to complete a wave B (pink).
  3. The main target for the wave B (grey) is around the Wizz level 5 at 1.21. Here a bearish bounce is expected (orange arrows).
  4. The main target for the wave C (grey) of wave B (pink) is at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.1875 (blue box). Here a bullish bounce is expected (blue arrow).
  5. Both ABC zigzag patterns (grey and pink) are invalid if price action breaks the top too soon or the bottom.

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the uptrend finished at the end of last week when price action broke below the 144 ema. Prior to the break, the 144 ema acted as a strong support zone. With the bearish breakout, a bearish retracement sent price action lower.

EUR/USD 1 hour chart 6.5.2021

On the next 1 hour chart, we focus on the recent price swing and Elliott Wave patterns:

  1. A bearish 5 wave (blue) has been completed in the 5 wave pattern (orange).
  2. A falling wedge reversal chart pattern confirmed the end of the bearish price swing.
  3. Also the divergence pattern (purple) indicated exhaustion for the bears.
  4. A bullish breakout above the resistance trend line (dotted orange) and the 21 ema zone confirmed a bullish price swing.
  5. Now the main target seems to be the 144 ema resistance If a bull flag chart pattern emerges, then a new higher high could complete a 5 wave up (blue) within wave A (orange).
  6. A bearish ABC could send price back down again to the support zone (blue box).
  7. An inverted head and shoulders pattern could end the wave B (orange) and start the wave C (orange).
  8. A break below the Wizz 5 level invalidates (red circle) the currently expected bullish ABC pattern.

EUR/USD 6.5.2021 1 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/JPY Forex Technical Analysis – Consolidating Inside 109.223 – 109.634 Ahead of Friday’s US Jobs Report

The Dollar/Yen is edging higher on Thursday while consolidating for a third session ahead of a key U.S. jobs report that may provide clues on when the Federal Reserve will dial back monetary stimulus. This follows weakness on Wednesday that was fueled by a dip in U.S. Treasury yields.

U.S. Treasury yields held steady on Wednesday after private payrolls data showed employers continued to add positions back at a steady clip during the month of April.

At 08:04 GMT, the USD/JPY is trading 109.364, up 0.167 or +0.15%.

Private jobs growth accelerated in April but fell a bit short of lofty Wall Street expectations, according to a report Wednesday from ADP. Additionally, the ISM Services PMI report came in at 62.7, down from the previously reported 63.7 and below the 64.2 forecast.

In other news, Bank of Japan (BOJ) policymakers agreed on the need to focus on keeping interest rates stably low while the economy remains under the strain caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, minutes of the central bank’s meeting showed on Thursday.

Daily USD/JPY

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, but momentum is trending higher. The USD/JPY was in the midst of a six-session counter-trend rally when a closing price reversal top on Monday stopped the move cold.

A trade through 109.698 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the counter-trend rally.

The main tend changes to up on a trade through 110.966. A move through 107.479 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is up. This is controlling the momentum. A trade through 109.698 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The minor trend will change to down on a move through 108.435.

The short-term range is 110.966 to 107.479. Its retracement zone at 109.223 to 109.634 is currently being tested.

Minor range support is a pair of 50% levels at 108.720 and 108.589. They are followed by a major Fibonacci level at 108.230.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the USD/JPY on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 109.223.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 109.223 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into 109.634, followed by 109.698.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 109.223 will signal the presence of sellers. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with 108.720 the next potential downside target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Test Of Resistance At 1.2020

EUR/USD Video 06.05.21.

Euro Tries To Gain More Ground Against U.S. Dollar

EUR/USD is currently trying to get back above the resistance at the 20 EMA at 1.2020 while the U.S. dollar is mostly flat against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index did not manage to settle above the resistance at the 20 EMA at 91.30 but stays close to this level. The nearest support level for the U.S. Dollar Index is located at the 91 level. If the U.S. Dollar Index gets to the test of this level, EUR/USD will get more support.

Today, foreign exchange market traders will have a chance to take a look at Euro Area Retail Sales data for March. Analysts expect that Retail Sales increased by 1.5% month-over-month in March after growing by 3% in February. On a year-over-year basis, Retail Sales are projected to increase by 9.6% as Retail Sales were under significant pressure in March 2020.

Meanwhile, the U.S. will release Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims reports. Initial Jobless Claims are expected to decline from 553,000 to 540,000 while Continuing Jobless Claims are projected to decrease from 3.66 million to 3.62 million.

Yesterday’s ADP Employment Change report was a bit worse than the analyst consensus but it still highlighted rapid employment growth, and the upcoming employment reports are also expected to show that the situation in the job market continues to improve.

Technical Analysis

eur usd may 6 2021

EUR/USD is testing the resistance at the 20 EMA at 1.2020. In case this test is successful, EUR/USD will move towards the next resistance level at 1.2040.

A move above the resistance at 1.2040 will push EUR/USD towards the next resistance at 1.2060. In case EUR/USD manages to settle above this level, it will head towards the resistance which is located at 1.2090.

On the support side, the nearest support level for EUR/USD is located at the 50 EMA at 1.1990. This support level has been tested several times in recent trading sessions and proved its strength.

In case EUR/USD declines below the support at 1.1990, it will move towards the next support level at 1.1965. A successful test of the support at 1.1965 will push EUR/USD towards the support at 1.1925.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/JPY Structural Breakout Will Determing the Next TP

The EUR/JPY has formed a structure which look like a bullish wedge, but we need to pay attention to the direction of the breakout.

131.35 breakout should be targeting 131.65 as the first target. Further continuation up, with a positive momentum should target 132.02-132.20 zone. However if something happens and the bullish wedge fails to provide the breakout to the upside watch 130.87 level. Below, a bearish breakout will happen towards the 130.63 and 130.50 zone.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Cheers and safe trading,

Nenad

 

GBP/USD Daily Forecast – Resistance At 1.3900 Remains A Major Obstacle On The Way Up

GBP/USD Video 06.05.21.

British Pound Is Mostly Flat Against U.S. Dollar

GBP/USD continues to test the resistance at 1.3900 while the U.S. dollar is mostly flat against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index remains near the resistance at the 20 EMA at 91.30. In case the U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle above this level, it will head towards the next resistance at the 50 EMA at 91.45 which will be bearish for GBP/USD.

Today, foreign exchange market traders will focus on the Bank of England Interest Rate Decision. The rate is projected to stay unchanged at 0.1% so traders will pay attention to the Bank’s commentary.

Traders will also have a chance to take a look at the final reading of UK Services PMI report for April. Analysts expect that Services PMI increased from 56.3 in March to 60.1 in April.

In the U.S., traders will focus on Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims reports. Initial Jobless Claims report is projected to show that 540,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in a week. Continuing Jobless Claims are projected to decline from 3.66 million to 3.62 million.

Technical Analysis

gbp usd may 6 2021

GBP/USD continues its attempts to settle above the resistance at 1.3900. If GBP/USD manages to settle above this level, it will get to another test of the resistance at 1.3920.

A successful test of the resistance at 1.3920 will push GBP/USD towards the next resistance at 1.3950. If GBP/USD settles above this level, it will head towards the resistance at 1.3980. A move above this level will open the way to the test of the resistance at 1.4000.

On the support side, the nearest support level for GBP/USD is located at the 20 EMA at 1.3875. If GBP/USD manages to settle below the support at the 20 EMA, it will move towards the 50 EMA at 1.3850. A successful test of this level will push GBP/USD towards the support at 1.3800. No significant levels were formed between 1.3800 and the 50 EMA so this move may be fast.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

NZD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to .7204 – .7266 Retracement Tone Set Near-Term Tone

The New Zealand Dollar is trading lower on Thursday after giving up earlier gains despite a pair of economic reports indicating a strengthening economy.

The Kiwi Dollar rallied on Wednesday in reaction to better-than-expected labor market data and mixed reports from the U.S. on private sector jobs and the services industry.

At 05:15 GMT, the NZD/USD is trading .7206, down 0.0011 or -0.15%.

Early today, figures from Statistics New Zealand showed the number of new homes consented in the year ended March 2021 reached an all-time high of 41,028, due to an increase in consents for higher-density housing.

In other news, a preliminary reading of New Zealand ANZ business confidence improved to 7.0 in May, up from -2.0.

Daily NZD/USD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7115 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through .7287.

The main range is .7465 to .6943. The NZD/USD is currently testing its retracement zone at .7204 to .7266. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the Forex pair.

The short-term range is .6943 to .7287. Its retracement zone at .7115 to .7074 is potential support.

The main support is the long-term retracement zone at .7027 to .6924.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the NZD/USD on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to .7204.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7204 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into .7266, followed by .7287. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7204 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is a minor pivot at .7172. If this level fails as support then look for the selling to possibly extend into .7115 to .7074.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – If Downside Momentum Continues then Look for Test of .7675 – .7641

The Australian Dollar is edging lower on Thursday as traders position themselves ahead of a speech by Reserve Bank Governor Guy Debelle at 09:00 GMT. On Wednesday, the Aussie Dollar rose as the U.S. Dollar retreated after a report showed the private sector added fewer jobs than forecast.

At 04:34 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7728, down 0.0020 or -0.26%.

U.S. private payrolls rose by the most in seven months in April, ADP data showed on Wednesday, as companies boosted production to meet a surge in demand amid massive government spending and rising COViD-19 vaccinations. But the 742,000 private jobs created fell short of the 800,000 jobs expected by economists in a Reuters poll.

Daily AUD/USD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The trend turned down on Tuesday when sellers took out the swing bottom at .7691. A trade through .7675 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through .7818 will change the main trend to up.

The short-term range is .7532 to .7818. Its retracement zone at .7675 to .7641 is the next downside target and potential support area.

The main range is .8007 to .7532. Its retracement zone at .7770 to .7826 is resistance. This zone stopped the rally at .7818 last week.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the AUD/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at .7770.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7770 will indicate the presence of sellers. If the move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the short-term retracement zone at .7675 to .7641. We could see a technical bounce on the first test of this area, but if it fails then look for a possible spike into the .7586 main bottom.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7770 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the main top at .7818, followed closely by the main Fibonacci level at .7826. Taking out this level could trigger a further rally into the main top at .7849. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

May 6th 2021: DXY Enters Quiet Phase Above 91.00 as Traders Await US Job’s Data on Friday

Charts: Trading View

EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following a three-month retracement, demand at 1.1857-1.1352 made an entrance and inspired a bullish revival in April, up 2.4 percent at the close.

April upside throws light on the possibility of fresh 2021 peaks in the months ahead, followed by a test of ascending resistance (prior support [1.1641]).

Based on trend studies, the primary uptrend has been underway since price broke the 1.1714 high (Aug 2015) in July 2017. Additionally, price also breached trendline resistance, taken from the high 1.6038, in July 2020.

Daily timeframe:

Technical structure unchanged from previous analysis.

Thanks to Wednesday’s bearish presence heading into the European close, the 200-day simple moving average is now within touching distance, currently circling 1.1940 levels. This—as aired in recent technical writing—represents a dynamic value that could deliver support if tested. To the upside, however, Quasimodo resistance stands at 1.2169.

In terms of trend, despite the 2021 retracement, the currency pair has been entrenched within an uptrend since early 2020, movement that many traders will likely refer to as a primary trend on this timeframe.

The RSI recently placed support at 51.36 in the mix, following a retreat south of the overbought setting in late April.

H4 timeframe:

Wednesday’s decline, as evident from the H4 scale, had EUR/USD shake hands with support at 1.1990 and a Fibonacci cluster between 1.1971 and 1.1986 (a defined area on a price chart where Fib retracement levels converge). For the moment, buyers have welcomed the area, yet to add bullish conviction traders are likely watching for either a break of yesterday’s high at 1.2026 or a bullish candlestick configuration to form.

As highlighted in Wednesday’s technical briefing, overthrowing the aforesaid Fib cluster unearths additional support at 1.1937 (aligns closely with the 200-day simple moving average on the daily scale), while a decisive rotation to the upside shines light on resistance at 1.2108.

H1 timeframe:

For those who read Wednesday’s technical briefing, you may recall the following (italics):

From the H4 timeframe, however, focus is on support at 1.1971/1.1990 (support/Fibonacci cluster). This also unlocks a possible whipsaw through 1.20 on the H1 to test the noted H4 support as well as H1 support at 1.1989. A H1 close back above 1.20—following a 1.1971/1.1990 test—is likely to be interpreted as a bullish theme, targeting at least 1.2035 (H1) resistance.

As evident from the H1 chart, 1.20 did indeed embrace a mild whipsaw on Wednesday, allowing support to 1.1989 to enter the fray. However, upside attempts have been somewhat lacklustre thus far, unable to pencil in a fresh higher high and reach H1 resistance at 1.2035.

Action out of the RSI indicator reveals the value has struggled to overturn 47.50 resistance, parked just south of the 50.00 centreline. However, readers may also be aware that 47.50 rejections have become softer in recent trade, echoing a possible break in the not-to-distant future.

Observed levels:

Recovery from the key figure 1.20 on the H1 could still grace the chart, reinforced by the H4 crossing swords with support at 1.1971/1.1990 (support/Fibonacci cluster) and the monthly scale showing buyers rebounding from demand at 1.1857-1.1352.

Another dip-buying scenario to be mindful of is a move to H4 support at 1.1937, a level sharing chart space with the 200-day simple moving average from 1.1940 (daily timeframe).

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Since the beginning of 2021, buyers and sellers have been battling for position south of trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776 high) and supply from 0.8303-0.8082. Should a bearish scenario unfold, demand at 0.7029-0.6664 (prior supply) is featured to the downside.

Trend studies (despite the trendline resistance [1.0582] breach in July 2020) show the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains in play until breaking 0.8135 (January high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

Technical structure unchanged from previous analysis.

From mid-April, AUD/USD has been consolidating around resistance from 0.7817.

Territory to the downside shines the technical spotlight on February’s low at 0.7563, followed closely by trendline resistance-turned support, extended from the high 0.8007, and the 200-day simple moving average at 0.7466.

Rupturing 0.7817, nevertheless, unbolts the door for an approach to supply at 0.8045-0.7985.

Interestingly, the RSI value recently tested trendline support-turned resistance, extended from the low 36.55, though has so far been unable to influence a bearish presence south of the 50.00 centreline. Therefore, traders are urged to pencil in the possibility of a move north to test trendline resistance, drawn from the high 80.12.

H4 timeframe:

Elevated on the back of risk flow—note strong gains witnessed in European equity indexes—the Australian dollar eked out modest gains versus the greenback on Wednesday.

Erasing the majority of Tuesday’s losses, yesterday’s gains lifted price action out of 0.7696-0.7715 demand (this area experienced a whipsaw on Tuesday) and clocked a session peak at 0.7755.

AUD/USD bulls are likely eyeballing Monday’s tops at 0.7766, followed by Quasimodo resistance at 0.7800.

Also of technical relevance is the currency pair has been busy carving out a consolidation between the 0.7800 Quasimodo resistance and the aforesaid demand area since April 20th.

H1 timeframe:

US trade, in spite of efforts to hold beneath the 100-period simple moving average around 0.7737, dethroned the said SMA and crossed paths with resistance at 0.7752.

Territory north of 0.7752 throws light on a Fibonacci cluster between 0.7767 and 0.7760, closely shadowed by Quasimodo resistance at 0.7777.

Interestingly, RSI movement scaled above the 50.00 centreline and clocked tops just south of overbought status, which guided a test of a neighbouring trendline support, extended from the low 24.48.

Observed levels:

Follow-through upside, according to the H4 chart, is a possibility, at least until reaching Monday’s tops at 0.7766. Despite this, short-term buyers face H1 resistance at 0.7752, together with a Fibonacci cluster between 0.7767 and 0.7760 (which houses Monday’s peak at 0.7766).

Longer term, daily eyes likely remain on resistance from 0.7817, consequently drawing attention to the 0.78 figure based on the H1 scale and Quasimodo resistance from 0.7800 on the H4.

USD/JPY:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following January’s bullish engulfing candle and February’s outperformance, March concluded up by 3.9 percent and marginally cut through descending resistance, etched from the high 118.66.

Although April finished lower by 1.3 percent and snapped the three-month winning streak, the pair is attempting to hold the breached descending resistance, echoing potential support.

Daily timeframe:

Technical structure unchanged from previous analysis.

Despite the monthly timeframe chalking up possible supportive structure, the daily timeframe has price engaging supply at 109.97-109.18.

Trendline support, extended from the low 102.59, serves as a downside target south of current supply; a bullish showing, on the other hand, casts light towards longer-term supply at 110.94-110.29, stationed under another supply at 111.73-111.19.

Trend studies show the unit has been trending higher since the beginning of 2021.

The RSI indicator, although ending last week above the 50.00 centreline (a sign of trend strength), is seen testing resistance at 57.00.

H4 timeframe:

Technical structure unchanged from previous analysis.

61.8% Fib resistance at 109.60—located under supply at 109.97-109.72 (an area positioned within the upper range of daily supply at 109.97-109.18)—remain primary areas on the H4 scale, with support at 108.99 serving as a floor for the time being.

External areas to be aware of are support at 108.50 and neighbouring demand from 108.20-108.43, in addition to supply posted at 110.85-110.46 (fixed within daily supply at 110.94-110.29).

H1 timeframe:

It was another relatively quiet session on Wednesday, with buyers and sellers going toe to toe between the 100-period simple moving average (now circling 109.21) and supply from 109.52-109.39 (a decision point to break the 109.26 low). Despite this, we see sellers attempting to overthrow the aforesaid moving average, as we write.

Below the moving average, 109 stands in sight, joined by trendline support, drawn from the low 107.47. Below 109, however, unmasks demand at 108.57-108.46.

Above current supply, aside from tops around Monday’s peak at 109.69, we can see resistance calling at 109.95, alongside the 110 figure.

Observed levels:

The 109 figure on the H1, aligning with H1 trendline support, is an area short-term buyers may take aim at today, particularly as the 100-period simple moving average is on the verge of giving way. What’s also technically appealing around 109 is H4 support plotted at 108.99.

Technicians are also likely to note monthly currently testing descending resistance-turned support.

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

The pendulum swung in favour of buyers following December’s 2.5 percent advance, stirring major trendline resistance (2.1161). February subsequently followed through to the upside (1.7 percent) and refreshed 2021 highs at 1.4241, levels not seen since 2018. Contained within February’s range, however, March and April witnessed decreased volatility.

Despite the trendline breach (which could serve as possible support if retested), primary trend structure has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until 1.4376 gives way (April high 2018).

Daily timeframe:

Technical structure unchanged from previous analysis.

Resistance at 1.4003 has proved a stubborn hurdle since March, capping upside attempts on multiple occasions. Any downside from this base throws light on 1.3670 bottoms, arranged north of Quasimodo support at 1.3609.

Should buyers regain consciousness and brush aside current resistance, Quasimodo resistance at 1.4250 could enter the frame.

From the RSI indicator, the value recently dropped from 58.20 peaks and crossed swords with trendline support, pencilled in from the low 36.14. As you can see, the aforementioned trendline is holding for the time being.

As for trend, GBP/USD has been trending higher since early 2020, despite the two-month retracement.

H4 timeframe:

Technical structure unchanged from previous analysis.

Resistance at 1.3919 continues to reject upside movement, following Monday’s one-sided advance from demand at 1.3809-1.3832.

Upstream—north of 1.3919— brings light to tops around 1.3976, followed by Quasimodo resistance at 1.4007. Below the aforesaid demand brings attention to Quasimodo support at 1.3750, which happens to align with a 1.272% Fib projection at 1.3746 and a 78.6% Fib level at 1.3739 (Fib cluster).

H1 timeframe:

Sellers failed to step in from the 1.39 figure and 100-period simple moving average on Wednesday, highlighting nearby resistance at 1.3929.

As shown on the H1 chart, 1.39 represents support at the moment, aided by the aforesaid moving average. Defending 1.39 as support and taking on 1.3929 resistance potentially sets the technical stage for a run to tops noted on the H4 scale at 1.3976, as well as the 1.40 figure (housed between H1 Fibonacci resistance at 1.4013-1.3988).

Observed levels:

The combination of the 1.39 figure on the H1 and the 100-period simple moving average is a zone possibly on the radar today for short-term buyers. Breaking H1 resistance at 1.3929 could add bullish weight as this would also secure a bullish presence north of H4 resistance from 1.3919.

Longer term, technical eyes are perhaps drawn to daily resistance at 1.4003, which blends closely with the key figure 1.40 on the H1 and Quasimodo resistance on the H4 at 1.4007.

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USD/JPY Price Forecast – US Dollar Continues to Levitate Against Yen

The US dollar has gone back and forth against the Japanese yen during trading on Wednesday as we continue to see this market hang around the ¥109.50 level. This is an area where we could see a bit more selling pressure, and the fact that we have the jobs number coming out on Friday will probably continue to cause quite a bit of noise in this market. With that being the case, I think it is only a matter of time before we have to make a bigger move, and the most obvious target above would probably be near the ¥110 level. The ¥110 level has been resistive previously, but we have even broken above there to go towards the ¥111 level, which is my longer-term target if we continue to see upward pressure.

USD/JPY Video 06.05.21

That being said, I do not know that we get a huge move between now and Friday when we get the jobs number. Quite frankly, I think it is going to be difficult to make a big move between now and then, and with that being said I think what we are looking at is a lot of back and forth choppy behavior between now and then. With that in mind, I am somewhat neutral on this pair for the next couple of days, but I recognize that the 50 day EMA underneath could be a target if we do get a selloff, as it should offer support. On the other hand, if we break above the highs of the Monday session, then we will probably go looking towards ¥110, but that is not a very big move.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/USD Price Forecast – British Pound Continues to Consolidate

The British pound has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Wednesday as we hang around the 1.39 handle. That is an area that continues to cause a bit of choppiness, and I think that is probably what we are going to see over the next 48 hours. After all, we have the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Thursday and of course the jobs number on Friday. Ultimately, this is a market that will make a move, but right now it looks as if the 1.40 level above continues to be a massive barrier that the market simply struggles to get beyond. Looking at this chart, I think that we are simply killing time until we get some of those answers.

GBP/USD Video 06.05.21

Underneath, there is a little bit of a double bottom that the market will continue to pay close attention to, and if we were to break down below there then it is likely that the market goes looking towards the 1.35 handle underneath. That is an area where we see the 200 day EMA racing towards, so that should offer a significant amount of support as well. With that being the case, I like the idea of buying in that area if we do get down there, but I just do not see that happening in the short term. Longer-term, I think we are much more likely to break above the 1.40 handle, but that is going to take a significant amount of momentum to make that happen. With this in mind, I like the idea of going long, but I would either wait for a better price, or a breakout above the aforementioned 1.40 handle.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Cotinues Choppy Behavior

The British pound initially rallied against the Japanese yen during trading on Wednesday but continues to struggle to break out to the upside. Because of this, I do believe that it is probably only a matter of time before we get some type of short-term pullback. Nonetheless, this is a market that is trying to break out and the Japanese yen has been on its back foot for a while. The caveat with this pair is that it is highly correlated to risk appetite, and therefore one would think that you will have to watch other assets as well.

GBP/JPY Video 06.05.21

Underneath, the ¥150 level is significant support based upon psychology, and of course the 50 day EMA sits right there as well, so that will attract a certain amount of attention. The market is going to be choppy regardless, so at this point time there is no reason to get huge in this market, but it certainly looks as if we are trying to make a decision as to whether or not we can build down enough momentum to go much higher. If we can break above the ¥153.50 level, then the market is likely to go looking towards the ¥155 level.

On the other hand, if we were to break down below the 50 day EMA it could very well reach down towards the ¥145 level which is not only a large, round, psychologically significant figure, but it also features the 200 day EMA as well. With this, I think that we are simply going to chop around back and forth while trying to figure out where to go next.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Sits on The 50 Day EMA

The Euro has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Wednesday as we continue to flirt with the 1.20 handle. This is a market that obviously will be very noisy in general, as we are waiting to see the jobs number on Friday determine the next risk appetite situation appears. In that scenario, and the fact that the 50 day EMA sits just below I think that we are probably going to kill time over the next couple of days, simply grinding back and forth instead of making any major move. This being the case, I would anticipate that this market is going to be very boring over the next couple of days.

EUR/USD Video 06.05.21

That being said, if we were to break down below the 50 day EMA then it is likely that we go chasing the 200 day EMA underneath, which of course attracts a lot of attention. Ultimately, the market is going to continue to be very choppy overall, and I do think that what we are looking at is a market that is probably a short range bound trading type of opportunity if that. On the other hand, if we break above the 1.2050 level, then it is possible that the market could go looking towards the 1.2050 level above.

All things being equal, I do not really have any interest in this area, so am waiting to see whether we get some type of momentum that we can follow. If we do not, then I will simply stand on the sidelines as this pair does tend to be very choppy in general.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues Consolidation

The Australian dollar rallied again during the course of the trading session on Wednesday as we have bounced from the 50 day EMA yet again. This is a market that continues to try to work off some of the recent consolidation and decide where it is going to go next. The 50 day EMA appears to be followed closely by technical traders and has been important multiple times over the last couple of weeks. With this being the case, I do believe that we will continue to go back and forth in the short term, perhaps waiting on the jobs number on Friday.

AUD/USD Video 06.05.21

To the downside, if we were to break down below the 50 day EMA there is plenty of support underneath there near the 0.76 handle, so I think we are essentially stuck in this range. This is especially true when you look at the 0.78 level and how resistive it has been. In other words, there is so much going on in this pair that is difficult to imagine that we are going to see an easy escape. That being said, eventually there will be an impulsive candlestick that you can fall, but we do not have it yet and therefore unless you are a short-term range bound trader, you probably do not have much to do in this pair. Furthermore, there are a lot of questions about China, as it stock markets have underperformed most of its peers, showing that there is perhaps some cracks in the ice when it comes to the Chinese economy. If that is going to continue to be the case, this pair is going to struggle to break out.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.