Gold Fundamental Analysis February 23, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

09:00     EUR       German Ifo Business Climate Index                                         108.8                     108.3       

09:00     EUR       German Current Assessment                                                    116.5                     116.3      

09:00     EUR       German Business Expectations                                                102.0                     100.9

The German Ifo Business Climate Index rates the current German business climate and measures expectations for the next six months. It is a composite index based on a survey of manufacturers, builders, wholesalers and retailers. This report includes Current Assessment and Business Expectations. The index is compiled by the Institute for Economic Research.               

09:30     GBP       BBA Mortgage Approvals                            37.3K                     36.2K       

The British Bankers’ Association (BBA) Mortgage Approvals measures the number of new mortgages approved by BBA-backed banks during the previous month. It includes more than half of the total U.K. mortgage market. It provides information about the buyers in the housing market in the U.K.

11:00     GBP       CBI Industrial Trends Orders                      -13                          -16

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial Trends Orders measures the economic expectations of the manufacturing executives in the U.K. It is a leading indicator of business conditions. A level above zero indicates order volume is expected to increase; a level below zero indicates expectations are for lower volumes. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 550 manufacturers. 

 13:30    USD      Initial Jobless Claims                                    354K                      348K                     

13:30     USD      Continuing Jobless Claims                          3460K                    3426K     

Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims measure the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.               

Just a heads up since gold is volatile and will react to most economic indicators we will begin to post the daily calendar with events that could effect the price of gold. The gold price is sensitive to a number of scheduled U.S. and Euro area macroeconomic announcements—including retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation. Gold’s high sensitivity to real interest rates and its unique role as a safe-haven and store of value typically leads to a counter-cyclical reaction to surprise news, in contrast to their commodities. It also shows a particularly high sensitivity to negative surprises that might lead financial investors to become more risk averse.  

These results have a number of implications. To reduce the uncertainty of the return on gold transactions, traders may wish to time their orders flow so as to avoid the release of information that has been shown to affect prices. For longer-term market participants, these results provide confirmation of the pro-cyclical bias of many commodities and gold’s role as a safe-haven during periods of economic uncertainty.

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold is skyrocketing up at the close of the session. Trading at this writing at 1772.65 a new recent high. Gold had fallen earlier in the day from a rally that took prices to a two-week high, as some of the optimism from the Greek deal faded after downbeat data from China, and with investors taking profits given recent gains for the metal. As the day drew to an end gold was trading down 60 cents at 1758.10, when it turned and surged up.

Continued worries over Greece still unnerved the markets. Many have the morning after regrets.

Sales of U.S. existing homes rose 4.3% in January and inventories fell to nearly seven-year lows, as lower prices, unusually warm weather and an improving economy all lifted demand.

The National Association of Realtors said Wednesday that January sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.57 million, compared to economist forecast of 4.7 million. Sales rose in all four major regions, including an 8.8% pop in the West.

 Wednesday February 22, 2012 Economic Reports     actual v. forecast

 

 AUD

 

 

 

Wage Price Index (QoQ)

1.0%

 

0.8%

 

0.7%

 

 

 

NZD

 

 

 

Credit Card Spending (YoY)

3.1%

     

5.9%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French CPI (MoM)

-0.4%

 

0.3%

 

0.4%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

50.2

 

48.7

 

48.5

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Services PMI 

50.3

 

51.9

 

52.3

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

50.1

 

51.5

 

51.0

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Services PMI 

52.6

 

53.8

 

53.7

 

 

 

TWD

 

 

 

Taiwanese GDP (YoY)

1.9%

 

1.9%

 

1.9%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Italian CPI (MoM)

0.3%

 

0.3%

 

0.3%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

49.0

 

49.4

 

48.8

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Services PMI 

49.4

 

50.7

 

50.4

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

MPC Meeting Minutes

         

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Industrial New Orders (MoM)

1.9%

 

0.6%

 

-1.1%

   

 

EUR

 

 

 

German 2-Year Schatz Auction

0.250%

       

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

MBA Mortgage Applications

-4.5%

     

-1.0%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Spanish Trade Balance

-4.50B

 

-3.10B

 

-2.70B

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Belgium NBB Business Climate

-7.7

 

-8.5

 

-9.5

 

 

Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis February 23, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

 

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is currently trading  down at 105.92 at this writing declining slightly on a higher dollar, markets continue to worry about European and Chinese data, and as questions about Iran’s nuclear program continued to cloud the global oil supply outlook. Greece continues to unnerve investors compounded by supply chain disruptions caused by Iranians response to the EU embargo.

Sales of U.S. existing homes rose 4.3% in January and inventories fell to nearly seven-year lows, as lower prices, unusually warm weather and an improving economy all lifted demand.

The National Association of Realtors said Wednesday that January sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.57 million, compared to economist forecast of 4.7 million. Sales rose in all four major regions, including an 8.8% pop in the West.

Chesapeake Energy Corp. said it plans to more than double its oil and liquids production by 2015 as the natural gas giant aims to become one of top five U.S. oil producers.

Chesapeake and other oil and gas companies are fleeing natural gas fields amid a supply glut that has brought prices to low levels not seen in years. Chesapeake said it plans to produce about 250,000 barrels a day of oil and natural gas liquids by 2015, up from about 104,000 barrels a day in the fourth quarter.

 Wednesday February 22, 2012 Economic Reports     actual v. forecast

 

 AUD

 

 

 

Wage Price Index (QoQ)

1.0%

 

0.8%

 

0.7%

 

 

 

NZD

 

 

 

Credit Card Spending (YoY)

3.1%

     

5.9%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French CPI (MoM)

-0.4%

 

0.3%

 

0.4%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

50.2

 

48.7

 

48.5

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Services PMI 

50.3

 

51.9

 

52.3

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

50.1

 

51.5

 

51.0

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Services PMI 

52.6

 

53.8

 

53.7

 

 

 

TWD

 

 

 

Taiwanese GDP (YoY)

1.9%

 

1.9%

 

1.9%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Italian CPI (MoM)

0.3%

 

0.3%

 

0.3%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

49.0

 

49.4

 

48.8

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Services PMI 

49.4

 

50.7

 

50.4

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

MPC Meeting Minutes

         

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Industrial New Orders (MoM)

1.9%

 

0.6%

 

-1.1%

   

 

EUR

 

 

 

German 2-Year Schatz Auction

0.250%

       

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

MBA Mortgage Applications

-4.5%

     

-1.0%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Spanish Trade Balance

-4.50B

 

-3.10B

 

-2.70B

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Belgium NBB Business Climate

-7.7

 

-8.5

 

-9.5

 

 

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis February 23, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

 

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas  is down from the opening of 2.788 and is trading at 2.759. With warmer weather predicted along with the days of winter ending, inventories are more than enough to see the cover demand. Today Chesapeake Energy Corp. said it plans to more than double its oil and liquids production by 2015 as the natural gas giant aims to become one of top five U.S. oil producers.

Chesapeake and other oil and gas companies are fleeing natural gas fields amid a supply glut that has brought prices to low levels not seen in years. Chesapeake said it plans to produce about 250,000 barrels a day of oil and natural gas liquids by 2015, up from about 104,000 barrels a day in the fourth quarter.

 

USD/CHF Fundamental Analysis February 23, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

09:00     EUR       German Ifo Business Climate Index                                         108.8                     108.3      

 09:00    EUR       German Current Assessment                                                    116.5                     116.3      

09:00     EUR       German Business Expectations                                                102.0                     100.9

The German Ifo Business Climate Index rates the current German business climate and measures expectations for the next six months. It is a composite index based on a survey of manufacturers, builders, wholesalers and retailers. This report includes Current Assessment and Business Expectations. The index is compiled by the Institute for Economic Research.               

09:30     GBP       BBA Mortgage Approvals                            37.3K                     36.2K       

The British Bankers’ Association (BBA) Mortgage Approvals measures the number of new mortgages approved by BBA-backed banks during the previous month. It includes more than half of the total U.K. mortgage market. It provides information about the buyers in the housing market in the U.K.

11:00     GBP       CBI Industrial Trends Orders               -13                          -16

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial Trends Orders measures the economic expectations of the manufacturing executives in the U.K. It is a leading indicator of business conditions. A level above zero indicates order volume is expected to increase; a level below zero indicates expectations are for lower volumes. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 550 manufacturers. 

 13:30    USD      Initial Jobless Claims                                    354K                      348K                     

13:30     USD      Continuing Jobless Claims                          3460K                    3426K     

Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims measure the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.               

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CHF is swapping for 0.9103 down from earlier highs of 0.9138. The USD has been strong against its trading partners all day, losing ground slightly towards the end of the day. Housing data released today in the US was very positive for the economy, and investors continued to worry over Greece, as morning after regrets set in. Today Fitch also lowered Greece’s credit rating. The Dollar has zigzagged all day. The Swissie has not positive data as the eurozone had several negative economic reports today.

Eurozone Nov Industrial orders revised to -1.1% from -1.3%, y/y revised to -2.5% from -2.7% A much stronger set of numbers including the revisions.

Eurozone Feb Flash composite PMI 49.7 from 50.4 – expected 50.6

German February flash manufacturing PMI 50.1

French February flash manufacturing PMI 50.2

In Italy final January HICP fell -1.8% m/m and rose 3.4% y/y, down from +3.7% y/y in December and the weakest y/y gain since August 2011, ISTAT said. –The main domestic index (NIC) rose 0.3% m/m, +3.2% y/y, down from +3.3% y/y in December and the strongest y/y gain since last summer.

Sales of U.S. existing homes rose 4.3% in January and inventories fell to nearly seven-year lows, as lower prices, unusually warm weather and an improving economy all lifted demand.

The National Association of Realtors said Wednesday that January sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.57 million, compared to economist forecast of 4.7 million. Sales rose in all four major regions, including an 8.8% pop in the West.

Wednesday February 22, 2012 Economic Reports     actual v. forecast

 

 AUD

 

 

 

Wage Price Index (QoQ)

1.0%

 

0.8%

 

0.7%

 

 

 

NZD

 

 

 

Credit Card Spending (YoY)

3.1%

     

5.9%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French CPI (MoM)

-0.4%

 

0.3%

 

0.4%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

50.2

 

48.7

 

48.5

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Services PMI 

50.3

 

51.9

 

52.3

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

50.1

 

51.5

 

51.0

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Services PMI 

52.6

 

53.8

 

53.7

 

 

 

TWD

 

 

 

Taiwanese GDP (YoY)

1.9%

 

1.9%

 

1.9%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Italian CPI (MoM)

0.3%

 

0.3%

 

0.3%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

49.0

 

49.4

 

48.8

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Services PMI 

49.4

 

50.7

 

50.4

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

MPC Meeting Minutes

         

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Industrial New Orders (MoM)

1.9%

 

0.6%

 

-1.1%

   

 

EUR

 

 

 

German 2-Year Schatz Auction

0.250%

       

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

MBA Mortgage Applications

-4.5%

     

-1.0%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Spanish Trade Balance

-4.50B

 

-3.10B

 

-2.70B

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Belgium NBB Business Climate

-7.7

 

-8.5

 

-9.5

 

 

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

EUR/CHF Fundamental Analysis February 23, 2012, Forecast

 Economic Events: (GMT)

09:00     EUR       German Ifo Business Climate Index                                         108.8                     108.3      

 09:00    EUR       German Current Assessment                                                    116.5                     116.3      

09:00     EUR       German Business Expectations                                                102.0                     100.9

The German Ifo Business Climate Index rates the current German business climate and measures expectations for the next six months. It is a composite index based on a survey of manufacturers, builders, wholesalers and retailers. This report includes Current Assessment and Business Expectations. The index is compiled by the Institute for Economic Research.               

09:30     GBP       BBA Mortgage Approvals                      37.3K                     36.2K       

The British Bankers’ Association (BBA) Mortgage Approvals measures the number of new mortgages approved by BBA-backed banks during the previous month. It includes more than half of the total U.K. mortgage market. It provides information about the buyers in the housing market in the U.K.

11:00     GBP       CBI Industrial Trends Orders                     -13                          -16

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial Trends Orders measures the economic expectations of the manufacturing executives in the U.K. It is a leading indicator of business conditions. A level above zero indicates order volume is expected to increase; a level below zero indicates expectations are for lower volumes. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 550 manufacturers. 

 13:30    USD      Initial Jobless Claims                                    354K                      348K                     

13:30     USD      Continuing Jobless Claims                          3460K                    3426K     

Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims measure the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.               

Analysis and Recommendations:

EUR/CHF is trading is currently trading at 1.2060 down from morning trading reaching a high of 1.2079. The euro began to slide as negative economic data weighed heavily, compounded by negative comments and a downgrade of Greece credit ratings by Fitch. Investors continued to worry about the future of Greece. The markets remain stressed over the Greek situation.

Eurozone Nov Industrial orders revised to -1.1% from -1.3%, y/y revised to -2.5% from -2.7% A much stronger set of numbers including the revisions.

Eurozone Feb Flash composite PMI 49.7 from 50.4 – expected 50.6

German February flash manufacturing PMI 50.1

French February flash manufacturing PMI 50.2

In Italy final January HICP fell -1.8% m/m and rose 3.4% y/y, down from +3.7% y/y in December and the weakest y/y gain since August 2011, ISTAT said. –The main domestic index (NIC) rose 0.3% m/m, +3.2% y/y, down from +3.3% y/y in December and the strongest y/y gain since last summer.

Wednesday February 22, 2012 Economic Reports     actual v. forecast

 

 AUD

 

 

 

Wage Price Index (QoQ)

1.0%

 

0.8%

 

0.7%

 

 

 

NZD

 

 

 

Credit Card Spending (YoY)

3.1%

     

5.9%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French CPI (MoM)

-0.4%

 

0.3%

 

0.4%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

50.2

 

48.7

 

48.5

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Services PMI 

50.3

 

51.9

 

52.3

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

50.1

 

51.5

 

51.0

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Services PMI 

52.6

 

53.8

 

53.7

 

 

 

TWD

 

 

 

Taiwanese GDP (YoY)

1.9%

 

1.9%

 

1.9%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Italian CPI (MoM)

0.3%

 

0.3%

 

0.3%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

49.0

 

49.4

 

48.8

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Services PMI 

49.4

 

50.7

 

50.4

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

MPC Meeting Minutes

         

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Industrial New Orders (MoM)

1.9%

 

0.6%

 

-1.1%

   

 

EUR

 

 

 

German 2-Year Schatz Auction

0.250%

       

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

MBA Mortgage Applications

-4.5%

     

-1.0%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Spanish Trade Balance

-4.50B

 

-3.10B

 

-2.70B

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Belgium NBB Business Climate

-7.7

 

-8.5

 

-9.5

 

 

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis February 23, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

09:00     EUR       German Ifo Business Climate Index                                         108.8                     108.3       

09:00     EUR       German Current Assessment                                                    116.5                     116.3      

09:00     EUR       German Business Expectations                                                102.0                     100.9

The German Ifo Business Climate Index rates the current German business climate and measures expectations for the next six months. It is a composite index based on a survey of manufacturers, builders, wholesalers and retailers. This report includes Current Assessment and Business Expectations. The index is compiled by the Institute for Economic Research.               

09:30     GBP       BBA Mortgage Approvals                            37.3K                     36.2K       

The British Bankers’ Association (BBA) Mortgage Approvals measures the number of new mortgages approved by BBA-backed banks during the previous month. It includes more than half of the total U.K. mortgage market. It provides information about the buyers in the housing market in the U.K.

11:00     GBP       CBI Industrial Trends Orders                                 -13                          -16

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial Trends Orders measures the economic expectations of the manufacturing executives in the U.K. It is a leading indicator of business conditions. A level above zero indicates order volume is expected to increase; a level below zero indicates expectations are for lower volumes. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 550 manufacturers. 

 13:30    USD      Initial Jobless Claims                                    354K                      348K                     

13:30     USD      Continuing Jobless Claims                          3460K                    3426K     

Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims measure the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.               

Analysis and Recommendations:

The pair EUR/GBP  is currently at 0.8455 up from the opening of 0.8386. The euro has been weighed down today by negative economic data and worries about Greece, which just won’t go away. Fitch rating services today downgraded Greece another notch. In the UK BoE Governor King gave a fairly good assessment of the UK economy.

 Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said the BOE was expecting a “zigzag” pattern of the quarterly growth this year and the detailed forecasts underpinning the quarterly Inflation Report, published Wednesday, bear this out.

Eurozone Nov Industrial orders revised to -1.1% from -1.3%, y/y revised to -2.5% from -2.7% A much stronger set of numbers including the revisions.

Eurozone Feb Flash composite PMI 49.7 from 50.4 – expected 50.6

German February flash manufacturing PMI 50.1

French February flash manufacturing PMI 50.2

In Italy final January HICP fell -1.8% m/m and rose 3.4% y/y, down from +3.7% y/y in December and the weakest y/y gain since August 2011, ISTAT said. –The main domestic index (NIC) rose 0.3% m/m, +3.2% y/y, down from +3.3% y/y in December and the strongest y/y gain since last summer.

 Wednesday February 22, 2012 Economic Reports     actual v. forecast

 

 AUD

 

 

 

Wage Price Index (QoQ)

1.0%

 

0.8%

 

0.7%

 

 

 

NZD

 

 

 

Credit Card Spending (YoY)

3.1%

     

5.9%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French CPI (MoM)

-0.4%

 

0.3%

 

0.4%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

50.2

 

48.7

 

48.5

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Services PMI 

50.3

 

51.9

 

52.3

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

50.1

 

51.5

 

51.0

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Services PMI 

52.6

 

53.8

 

53.7

 

 

 

TWD

 

 

 

Taiwanese GDP (YoY)

1.9%

 

1.9%

 

1.9%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Italian CPI (MoM)

0.3%

 

0.3%

 

0.3%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

49.0

 

49.4

 

48.8

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Services PMI 

49.4

 

50.7

 

50.4

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

MPC Meeting Minutes

         

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Industrial New Orders (MoM)

1.9%

 

0.6%

 

-1.1%

   

 

EUR

 

 

 

German 2-Year Schatz Auction

0.250%

       

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

MBA Mortgage Applications

-4.5%

     

-1.0%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Spanish Trade Balance

-4.50B

 

-3.10B

 

-2.70B

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Belgium NBB Business Climate

-7.7

 

-8.5

 

-9.5

 

 

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis February 23, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

09:00     EUR       German Ifo Business Climate Index                                       108.8                     108.3       

09:00     EUR       German Current Assessment                                                  116.5                     116.3      

09:00     EUR       German Business Expectations                                              102.0                     100.9

The German Ifo Business Climate Index rates the current German business climate and measures expectations for the next six months. It is a composite index based on a survey of manufacturers, builders, wholesalers and retailers. This report includes Current Assessment and Business Expectations. The index is compiled by the Institute for Economic Research.               

09:30     GBP       BBA Mortgage Approvals                    37.3K                     36.2K       

The British Bankers’ Association (BBA) Mortgage Approvals measures the number of new mortgages approved by BBA-backed banks during the previous month. It includes more than half of the total U.K. mortgage market. It provides information about the buyers in the housing market in the U.K.

11:00     GBP       CBI Industrial Trends Orders                -13                          -16

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial Trends Orders measures the economic expectations of the manufacturing executives in the U.K. It is a leading indicator of business conditions. A level above zero indicates order volume is expected to increase; a level below zero indicates expectations are for lower volumes. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 550 manufacturers. 

 13:30    USD      Initial Jobless Claims                                    354K                      348K                     

13:30     USD      Continuing Jobless Claims                          3460K                    3426K     

Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims measure the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.               

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.5678 down from 1.5814 on negative comments from the BoE King and positive economic data on housing sales in the US.

Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said the BOE was expecting a “zigzag” pattern of the quarterly growth this year and the detailed forecasts underpinning the quarterly Inflation Report, published Wednesday, bear this out.

Sales of U.S. existing homes rose 4.3% in January and inventories fell to nearly seven-year lows, as lower prices, unusually warm weather and an improving economy all lifted demand.

The National Association of Realtors said Wednesday that January sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.57 million, compared to economist forecast of 4.7 million. Sales rose in all four major regions, including an 8.8% pop in the West.

Eurozone Nov Industrial orders revised to -1.1% from -1.3%, y/y revised to -2.5% from -2.7% A much stronger set of numbers including the revisions.

Eurozone Feb Flash composite PMI 49.7 from 50.4 – expected 50.6

German February flash manufacturing PMI 50.1

French February flash manufacturing PMI 50.2

In Italy final January HICP fell -1.8% m/m and rose 3.4% y/y, down from +3.7% y/y in December and the weakest y/y gain since August 2011, ISTAT said. –The main domestic index (NIC) rose 0.3% m/m, +3.2% y/y, down from +3.3% y/y in December and the strongest y/y gain since last summer.

Wednesday February 22, 2012 Economic Reports     actual v. forecast

 

 AUD

 

 

 

Wage Price Index (QoQ)

1.0%

 

0.8%

 

0.7%

 

 

 

NZD

 

 

 

Credit Card Spending (YoY)

3.1%

     

5.9%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French CPI (MoM)

-0.4%

 

0.3%

 

0.4%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

50.2

 

48.7

 

48.5

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Services PMI 

50.3

 

51.9

 

52.3

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

50.1

 

51.5

 

51.0

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Services PMI 

52.6

 

53.8

 

53.7

 

 

 

TWD

 

 

 

Taiwanese GDP (YoY)

1.9%

 

1.9%

 

1.9%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Italian CPI (MoM)

0.3%

 

0.3%

 

0.3%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

49.0

 

49.4

 

48.8

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Services PMI 

49.4

 

50.7

 

50.4

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

MPC Meeting Minutes

         

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Industrial New Orders (MoM)

1.9%

 

0.6%

 

-1.1%

   

 

EUR

 

 

 

German 2-Year Schatz Auction

0.250%

       

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

MBA Mortgage Applications

-4.5%

     

-1.0%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Spanish Trade Balance

-4.50B

 

-3.10B

 

-2.70B

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Belgium NBB Business Climate

-7.7

 

-8.5

 

-9.5

 

 

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis February 23, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

09:00     EUR       German Ifo Business Climate Index                                        108.8                     108.3       

09:00     EUR       German Current Assessment                                                   116.5                     116.3    

 09:00    EUR       German Business Expectations                                                102.0                     100.9

The German Ifo Business Climate Index rates the current German business climate and measures expectations for the next six months. It is a composite index based on a survey of manufacturers, builders, wholesalers and retailers. This report includes Current Assessment and Business Expectations. The index is compiled by the Institute for Economic Research.               

09:30     GBP       BBA Mortgage Approvals                       37.3K                     36.2K       

The British Bankers’ Association (BBA) Mortgage Approvals measures the number of new mortgages approved by BBA-backed banks during the previous month. It includes more than half of the total U.K. mortgage market. It provides information about the buyers in the housing market in the U.K.

11:00     GBP       CBI Industrial Trends Orders                   -13                          -16

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial Trends Orders measures the economic expectations of the manufacturing executives in the U.K. It is a leading indicator of business conditions. A level above zero indicates order volume is expected to increase; a level below zero indicates expectations are for lower volumes. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 550 manufacturers. 

 13:30    USD      Initial Jobless Claims                                    354K                      348K                     

13:30     USD      Continuing Jobless Claims                          3460K                    3426K     

Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims measure the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.               

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD is trading at 1.3248 after hitting a high earlier in the day of 1.3267. The day has been mostly negative for the eurozone, with several below forecast indicators and a downgrade of Greece’s credit rating. The euro still maintained strength to hold in the mid 1.32 level. It is expected to take a fall soon.

Fitch dropped Greece’s credit rating to C from CCC on Wednesday, and warned that a default is ‘highly likely in the near term’.

Eurozone Nov Industrial orders revised to -1.1% from -1.3%, y/y revised to -2.5% from -2.7% A much stronger set of numbers including the revisions.

Eurozone Feb flash composite PMI 49.7 from 50.4 – expected 50.6

German February flash manufacturing PMI 50.1

French February flash manufacturing PMI 50.2

In Italy final January HICP fell -1.8% m/m and rose 3.4% y/y, down from +3.7% y/y in December and the weakest y/y gain since August 2011, ISTAT said. –The main domestic index (NIC) rose 0.3% m/m, +3.2% y/y, down from +3.3% y/y in December and the strongest y/y gain since last summer.

 Sales of U.S. existing homes rose 4.3% in January and inventories fell to nearly seven-year lows, as lower prices, unusually warm weather and an improving economy all lifted demand.

The National Association of Realtors said Wednesday that January sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.57 million, compared to economist forecast of 4.7 million. Sales rose in all four major regions, including an 8.8% pop in the West.

Eurozone Nov Industrial orders revised to -1.1% from -1.3%, y/y revised to -2.5% from -2.7% A much stronger set of numbers including the revisions.

Eurozone Feb Flash composite PMI 49.7 from 50.4 – expected 50.6

German February flash manufacturing PMI 50.1

French February flash manufacturing PMI 50.2

In Italy final January HICP fell -1.8% m/m and rose 3.4% y/y, down from +3.7% y/y in December and the weakest y/y gain since August 2011, ISTAT said. –The main domestic index (NIC) rose 0.3% m/m, +3.2% y/y, down from +3.3% y/y in December and the strongest y/y gain since last summer.

Wednesday February 22, 2012 Economic Reports     actual v. forecast

 

 AUD

 

 

 

Wage Price Index (QoQ)

1.0%

 

0.8%

 

0.7%

 

 

 

NZD

 

 

 

Credit Card Spending (YoY)

3.1%

     

5.9%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French CPI (MoM)

-0.4%

 

0.3%

 

0.4%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

50.2

 

48.7

 

48.5

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Services PMI 

50.3

 

51.9

 

52.3

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

50.1

 

51.5

 

51.0

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Services PMI 

52.6

 

53.8

 

53.7

 

 

 

TWD

 

 

 

Taiwanese GDP (YoY)

1.9%

 

1.9%

 

1.9%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Italian CPI (MoM)

0.3%

 

0.3%

 

0.3%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

49.0

 

49.4

 

48.8

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Services PMI 

49.4

 

50.7

 

50.4

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

MPC Meeting Minutes

         

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Industrial New Orders (MoM)

1.9%

 

0.6%

 

-1.1%

   

 

EUR

 

 

 

German 2-Year Schatz Auction

0.250%

       

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

MBA Mortgage Applications

-4.5%

     

-1.0%

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Spanish Trade Balance

-4.50B

 

-3.10B

 

-2.70B

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Belgium NBB Business Climate

-7.7

 

-8.5

 

-9.5

 

 

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis February 23, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

13:30     USD      Initial Jobless Claims                                    354K                      348K                     

13:30     USD      Continuing Jobless Claims                          3460K                    3426K     

Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims measure the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.               

 22:30                   AUD                                                      RBA Governor Stevens Speaks

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Glenn Stevens (September 2006 – September 2013) is to speak. As the head of the RBA, which sets short term interest rates, he has a major influence over the value of the Australian dollar. Traders watch his speeches closely as they are often used to drop subtle hints regarding future monetary policy and interest rate shifts. After surprising the markets last week and holding rates, today’s comments might have some effects on the Aussie

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

USD/JPY was trading at 80.03 up from 79.75 as the USD roars back to life, after the Monday holiday and the Greek deal. Last week Japan’s trade balance figures hit historical highs, surprising the markets. Investors were so concerned at that time with Greece that this news was overshadowed.

 

 

February 22, 2012 Economic Reports actual v forecast

NZD

Inflation Expectations (QoQ) 

2.5%

     

2.8%

 

 

AUD

RBA Governor Stevens Speaks 

         

 

 

JPY

All Industries Activity Index (MoM) 

1.3%

 

1.5%

 

-1.0%

   

CHF

Trade Balance 

1.55B

 

2.50B

 

2.01B

   

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing 

-10.7B

 

-9.1B

 

11.1B

   

TRY

Turkish Interest Rate Decision 

5.75%

 

5.75%

 

5.75%

 

 

CAD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.2%

 

0.4%

   

CAD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2%

 

0.4%

   

CAD

Wholesale Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

0.5%

 

-0.3%

   

USD

Chicago Fed National Activity 

0.22

 

0.22

 

0.54

   

EUR

Consumer Confidence 

-20

 

-20

 

-21

 

 

USD

2-Year Note Auction 

       

0.250%

 

 

ARS

Argentinian Unemployment Rate 

   

7.3%

 

7.2%

 

 

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis February 23, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

13:30     USD      Initial Jobless Claims                                    354K                      348K                     

13:30     USD      Continuing Jobless Claims                          3460K                    3426K     

Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims measure the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.               

 22:30                   AUD                                                      RBA Governor Stevens Speaks

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Glenn Stevens (September 2006 – September 2013) is to speak. As the head of the RBA, which sets short term interest rates, he has a major influence over the value of the Australian dollar. Traders watch his speeches closely as they are often used to drop subtle hints regarding future monetary policy and interest rate shifts. After surprising the markets last week and holding rates, today’s comments might have some effects on the Aussie

Analysis and Recommendation: (Close of the Asian session)

NZD/USD is trading at 0.8338 almost back at the opening. The New Zealand dollar had fallen after investors responded half-heartedly to news Greece secured a second bailout package, avoiding default.

The kiwi slipped to 83.55 US cents at 8am down from 83.74 cents on Tuesday at 5pm, having climbed as much as a cent after the Greek deal was announced. The kiwi had been pushed up on sentiment from announcements in China on the drop of reserve requirements for the banks.

 

 February 21, 2012 Economic Reports actual v forecast

NZD

Inflation Expectations (QoQ) 

2.5%

     

2.8%

 

 

AUD

RBA Governor Stevens Speaks 

         

 

 

JPY

All Industries Activity Index (MoM) 

1.3%

 

1.5%

 

-1.0%

   

CHF

Trade Balance 

1.55B

 

2.50B

 

2.01B

   

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing 

-10.7B

 

-9.1B

 

11.1B

   

TRY

Turkish Interest Rate Decision 

5.75%

 

5.75%

 

5.75%

 

 

CAD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.2%

 

0.4%

   

CAD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2%

 

0.4%

   

CAD

Wholesale Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

0.5%

 

-0.3%

   

USD

Chicago Fed National Activity 

0.22

 

0.22

 

0.54

   

EUR

Consumer Confidence 

-20

 

-20

 

-21

 

 

USD

2-Year Note Auction 

       

0.250%

 

 

ARS

Argentinian Unemployment Rate 

   

7.3%

 

7.2%

 

 

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis February 23, 2012 Forecast

Economic Events:  (GMT)

13:30     USD      Initial Jobless Claims                                    354K                      348K                     

13:30     USD      Continuing Jobless Claims                          3460K                    3426K     

Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims measure the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.               

 22:30                   AUD                                                      RBA Governor Stevens Speaks

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Glenn Stevens (September 2006 – September 2013) is to speak. As the head of the RBA, which sets short term interest rates, he has a major influence over the value of the Australian dollar. Traders watch his speeches closely as they are often used to drop subtle hints regarding future monetary policy and interest rate shifts. After surprising the markets last week and holding rates, today’s comments might have some effects on the Aussie

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

AUD/USD was trading at 1.0668, The Australian dollar was lower today, failing to gain ground despite the approval of a Greek bailout package.

On Tuesday, euro zone ministers approved the delivery of a second aid package to help prevent Greece from defaulting on its debts.

Markets have had a lukewarm reaction to the much-awaited decision because economists only give the deal a small chance of sufficiently helping the Greek economy and alleviating its financial crisis.

Data released today for the Wage Price Index which measures the change in the price businesses and the government pays for labor, excluding bonuses. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation. The report showed an unexpected increase which was positive for Aussie; markets were expecting an increase of 0.8% while the report showed an increase to 1.0%.

The Aussie is just waiting for something to set it on fire; it is due to rise, on the back of the Chinese reserve drop and overall strong economic signs from Oz.

February 21, 2012 Economic Reports actual v forecast

NZD

Inflation Expectations (QoQ) 

2.5%

     

2.8%

 

 

AUD

RBA Governor Stevens Speaks 

         

 

 

JPY

All Industries Activity Index (MoM) 

1.3%

 

1.5%

 

-1.0%

   

CHF

Trade Balance 

1.55B

 

2.50B

 

2.01B

   

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing 

-10.7B

 

-9.1B

 

11.1B

   

TRY

Turkish Interest Rate Decision 

5.75%

 

5.75%

 

5.75%

 

 

CAD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.2%

 

0.4%

   

CAD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2%

 

0.4%

   

CAD

Wholesale Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

0.5%

 

-0.3%

   

USD

Chicago Fed National Activity 

0.22

 

0.22

 

0.54

   

EUR

Consumer Confidence 

-20

 

-20

 

-21

 

 

USD

2-Year Note Auction 

       

0.250%

 

 

ARS

Argentinian Unemployment Rate 

   

7.3%

 

7.2%

 

 

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis February 22, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

06:30     EUR        French CPI (MoM)                                                           0.3%                      0.4%

The French Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.                           

08:00     EUR        French Manufacturing PMI                                         48.7                        48.5                       

08:30     EUR       German Manufacturing PMI                                      51.5                        51.0                       

09:00     EUR        Manufacturing PMI                                                       49.4                        48.8

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.                           

 09:30    GBP      MPC Meeting Minutes                 

The Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the Bank of England’s policy setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the decision on where to set interest rates. The breakdown of the MPC members’ interest rate votes tends to be the most important part of the minutes.      

10:00     EUR       Industrial New Orders (MoM)                                   0.6%                      -1.2%    

Industrial New Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of production.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.            

15:00     USD                      Existing Home Sales                                                     4.67M                     4.61M  

Existing Home Sales measures the change in the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. This report helps to gauge the strength of the U.S. housing market and is a key indicator of overall economic strength.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is currently trading 0.9960 precisely in the middle between the high and the low for the day. The USD has been up and down, earlier with Tuesday being the first day back from the holiday after the Greek settlement was announced and then worries and jitters began to upset the markets. Greece remains in the forefront. A trio of reports were released in Canada yesterday, with mixed results, Core Retail sales came in below estimates, while Retails Sales were right at forecast and Whole Sales were above giving mixed signals.

 

February 21, 2012 Economic Reports actual v forecast

NZD

Inflation Expectations (QoQ) 

2.5%

     

2.8%

 

 

AUD

RBA Governor Stevens Speaks 

         

 

 

JPY

All Industries Activity Index (MoM) 

1.3%

 

1.5%

 

-1.0%

   

CHF

Trade Balance 

1.55B

 

2.50B

 

2.01B

   

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing 

-10.7B

 

-9.1B

 

11.1B

   

TRY

Turkish Interest Rate Decision 

5.75%

 

5.75%

 

5.75%

 

 

CAD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.2%

 

0.4%

   

CAD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2%

 

0.4%

   

CAD

Wholesale Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

0.5%

 

-0.3%

   

USD

Chicago Fed National Activity 

0.22

 

0.22

 

0.54

   

EUR

Consumer Confidence 

-20

 

-20

 

-21

 

 

USD

2-Year Note Auction 

       

0.250%

 

 

ARS

Argentinian Unemployment Rate 

   

7.3%

 

7.2%

 

 

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis February 22, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

 

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas is trading at 2.775 in today’s session as investors pulled profits after NG surged close to 20% in less then two weeks. Earlier in the day Natural Gas hit a high of 2.79, last week NG topped out at 2.81 after moving up from 2.36 earlier this month. Winter days are running short and warm weather is predicted. Gas was seeking a bottom when inventory reports last week showed it below forecast, non the less there is still no reason for NG to continue to climb.

Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis February 22, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

 

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is currently $104.67 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It traded as high as $105.44  at a nine-month high Tuesday, pushing over $105 a barrel on fears of more supply disruptions from Iran’s latest move and as traders cheered Greece’s second bailout.

The supply concerns took hold after Iran announced Monday it cut off oil sales to the U.K and France. Separately, European authorities agreed on a Greek bailout package earlier Tuesday.

U.S. markets were closed Monday for the Presidents Day holiday, and Tuesday was the first U.S. floor trading day to react to both crucial events for the oil trade.

 

February 21, 2012 Economic Reports actual v forecast

NZD

Inflation Expectations (QoQ) 

2.5%

     

2.8%

 

 

AUD

RBA Governor Stevens Speaks 

         

 

 

JPY

All Industries Activity Index (MoM) 

1.3%

 

1.5%

 

-1.0%

   

CHF

Trade Balance 

1.55B

 

2.50B

 

2.01B

   

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing 

-10.7B

 

-9.1B

 

11.1B

   

TRY

Turkish Interest Rate Decision 

5.75%

 

5.75%

 

5.75%

 

 

CAD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.2%

 

0.4%

   

CAD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2%

 

0.4%

   

CAD

Wholesale Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

0.5%

 

-0.3%

   

USD

Chicago Fed National Activity 

0.22

 

0.22

 

0.54

   

EUR

Consumer Confidence 

-20

 

-20

 

-21

 

 

USD

2-Year Note Auction 

       

0.250%

 

 

ARS

Argentinian Unemployment Rate 

   

7.3%

 

7.2%

 

 

Gold Fundamental Analysis February 22, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

Just a heads up since gold is volatile and will react to most economic indicators we will begin to post the daily calendar with events that could effect the price of gold. The gold price is sensitive to a number of scheduled U.S. and Euro area macroeconomic announcements—including retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation. Gold’s high sensitivity to real interest rates and its unique role as a safe-haven and store of value typically leads to a counter-cyclical reaction to surprise news, in contrast to their commodities. It also shows a particularly high sensitivity to negative surprises that might lead financial investors to become more risk averse.  

These results have a number of implications. To reduce the uncertainty of the return on gold transactions, traders may wish to time their orders flow so as to avoid the release of information that has been shown to affect prices. For longer-term market participants, these results provide confirmation of the pro-cyclical bias of many commodities and gold’s role as a safe-haven during periods of economic uncertainty.

06:30     EUR        French CPI (MoM)                                                           0.3%                      0.4%

The French Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.                           

08:00     EUR        French Manufacturing PMI                                         48.7                        48.5                       

08:30     EUR       German Manufacturing PMI                                      51.5                        51.0                       

09:00     EUR        Manufacturing PMI                                                       49.4                        48.8

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.                           

 09:30    GBP      MPC Meeting Minutes                 

The Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the Bank of England’s policy setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the decision on where to set interest rates. The breakdown of the MPC members’ interest rate votes tends to be the most important part of the minutes.      

10:00     EUR       Industrial New Orders (MoM)                                   0.6%                      -1.2%    

Industrial New Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of production.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.            

15:00     USD                      Existing Home Sales                                                     4.67M                     4.61M  

Existing Home Sales measures the change in the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. This report helps to gauge the strength of the U.S. housing market and is a key indicator of overall economic strength.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold advanced $26, or 1.5%, to $1,751.90 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. It had earlier traded as high as $1,752.50 an ounce. U.S. markets were closed Monday for the Presidents Day holiday, and Tuesday was the first floor trading day to react to the Greek news.

February 21, 2012 Economic Reports actual v forecast

NZD

Inflation Expectations (QoQ) 

2.5%

     

2.8%

 

 

AUD

RBA Governor Stevens Speaks 

         

 

 

JPY

All Industries Activity Index (MoM) 

1.3%

 

1.5%

 

-1.0%

   

CHF

Trade Balance 

1.55B

 

2.50B

 

2.01B

   

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing 

-10.7B

 

-9.1B

 

11.1B

   

TRY

Turkish Interest Rate Decision 

5.75%

 

5.75%

 

5.75%

 

 

CAD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.2%

 

0.4%

   

CAD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2%

 

0.4%

   

CAD

Wholesale Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

0.5%

 

-0.3%

   

USD

Chicago Fed National Activity 

0.22

 

0.22

 

0.54

   

EUR

Consumer Confidence 

-20

 

-20

 

-21

 

 

USD

2-Year Note Auction 

       

0.250%

 

 

ARS

Argentinian Unemployment Rate 

   

7.3%

 

7.2%

 

 

USD/CHF Fundamental Analysis February 22, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

06:30     EUR        French CPI (MoM)                                                           0.3%                      0.4%

The French Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.                           

08:00     EUR        French Manufacturing PMI                                         48.7                        48.5                       

08:30     EUR       German Manufacturing PMI                                      51.5                        51.0                       

09:00     EUR        Manufacturing PMI                                                       49.4                        48.8

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.                           

 09:30    GBP      MPC Meeting Minutes                 

The Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the Bank of England’s policy setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the decision on where to set interest rates. The breakdown of the MPC members’ interest rate votes tends to be the most important part of the minutes.      

10:00     EUR       Industrial New Orders (MoM)                                   0.6%                      -1.2%    

Industrial New Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of production.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.            

15:00     USD                      Existing Home Sales                                                     4.67M                     4.61M  

Existing Home Sales measures the change in the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. This report helps to gauge the strength of the U.S. housing market and is a key indicator of overall economic strength.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CHF trading at 0.9125 up 0.09% as the USD showed gains today. The US markets were closed for a holiday yesterday and this has been the initial reactions to the Greek settlement. Also in Switzerland today trade balance data came in below forecast at 1.55billion, forecast as for 2.50billion, putting some weight on the Swissie.

 

 

February 21, 2012 Economic Reports actual v forecast

NZD

Inflation Expectations (QoQ) 

2.5%

     

2.8%

 

 

AUD

RBA Governor Stevens Speaks 

         

 

 

JPY

All Industries Activity Index (MoM) 

1.3%

 

1.5%

 

-1.0%

   

CHF

Trade Balance 

1.55B

 

2.50B

 

2.01B

   

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing 

-10.7B

 

-9.1B

 

11.1B

   

TRY

Turkish Interest Rate Decision 

5.75%

 

5.75%

 

5.75%

 

 

CAD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.2%

 

0.4%

   

CAD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2%

 

0.4%

   

CAD

Wholesale Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

0.5%

 

-0.3%

   

USD

Chicago Fed National Activity 

0.22

 

0.22

 

0.54

   

EUR

Consumer Confidence 

-20

 

-20

 

-21

 

 

USD

2-Year Note Auction 

       

0.250%

 

 

ARS

Argentinian Unemployment Rate 

   

7.3%

 

7.2%

 

 

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

EUR/CHF Fundamental Analysis February 22, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

06:30     EUR        French CPI (MoM)                                                           0.3%                      0.4%

The French Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.                           

08:00     EUR        French Manufacturing PMI                                         48.7                        48.5                       

08:30     EUR       German Manufacturing PMI                                      51.5                        51.0                       

09:00     EUR        Manufacturing PMI                                                       49.4                        48.8

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.                           

 09:30    GBP      MPC Meeting Minutes                 

The Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the Bank of England’s policy setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the decision on where to set interest rates. The breakdown of the MPC members’ interest rate votes tends to be the most important part of the minutes.      

10:00     EUR       Industrial New Orders (MoM)                                   0.6%                      -1.2%    

Industrial New Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of production.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.            

15:00     USD                      Existing Home Sales                                                     4.67M                     4.61M  

Existing Home Sales measures the change in the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. This report helps to gauge the strength of the U.S. housing market and is a key indicator of overall economic strength.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Analysis and Recommendations:

EUR/CHF is trading at 1.2081 up 0.08%. The euro remained strong against the Swissie even though it lost a bit of its strength after the elation from the Greek agreement. Swiss trade balances came in below forecast at 1.55billion

 

 

February 21, 2012 Economic Reports actual v forecast

NZD

Inflation Expectations (QoQ) 

2.5%

     

2.8%

 

 

AUD

RBA Governor Stevens Speaks 

         

 

 

JPY

All Industries Activity Index (MoM) 

1.3%

 

1.5%

 

-1.0%

   

CHF

Trade Balance 

1.55B

 

2.50B

 

2.01B

   

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing 

-10.7B

 

-9.1B

 

11.1B

   

TRY

Turkish Interest Rate Decision 

5.75%

 

5.75%

 

5.75%

 

 

CAD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.2%

 

0.4%

   

CAD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2%

 

0.4%

   

CAD

Wholesale Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

0.5%

 

-0.3%

   

USD

Chicago Fed National Activity 

0.22

 

0.22

 

0.54

   

EUR

Consumer Confidence 

-20

 

-20

 

-21

 

 

USD

2-Year Note Auction 

       

0.250%

 

 

ARS

Argentinian Unemployment Rate 

   

7.3%

 

7.2%

 

 

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis February 22, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

06:30     EUR        French CPI (MoM)                                                           0.3%                      0.4%

The French Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.                           

08:00     EUR        French Manufacturing PMI                                         48.7                        48.5                       

08:30     EUR       German Manufacturing PMI                                      51.5                        51.0                       

09:00     EUR        Manufacturing PMI                                                       49.4                        48.8

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.                           

 09:30    GBP      MPC Meeting Minutes                 

The Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the Bank of England’s policy setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the decision on where to set interest rates. The breakdown of the MPC members’ interest rate votes tends to be the most important part of the minutes.      

10:00     EUR       Industrial New Orders (MoM)                                   0.6%                      -1.2%    

Industrial New Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of production.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.            

15:00     USD                      Existing Home Sales                                                     4.67M                     4.61M  

Existing Home Sales measures the change in the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. This report helps to gauge the strength of the U.S. housing market and is a key indicator of overall economic strength.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Analysis and Recommendations:

The pair EUR/GBP  is currently at 0.8384 up after opening at 0.8354. UK data released today on public sector net borrowing came in below forecast which was positive for the economy, that public borrowing had decreased more then expected. This gave some play to the pound, but Greece continued to have concerns with the markets and the euro bounced around on continued worries. The euro kepts its gains but gave back some after reaching highs yesterday on the announcement of a deal.

 

February 21, 2012 Economic Reports actual v forecast

NZD

Inflation Expectations (QoQ) 

2.5%

     

2.8%

 

 

AUD

RBA Governor Stevens Speaks 

         

 

 

JPY

All Industries Activity Index (MoM) 

1.3%

 

1.5%

 

-1.0%

   

CHF

Trade Balance 

1.55B

 

2.50B

 

2.01B

   

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing 

-10.7B

 

-9.1B

 

11.1B

   

TRY

Turkish Interest Rate Decision 

5.75%

 

5.75%

 

5.75%

 

 

CAD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.2%

 

0.4%

   

CAD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2%

 

0.4%

   

CAD

Wholesale Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

0.5%

 

-0.3%

   

USD

Chicago Fed National Activity 

0.22

 

0.22

 

0.54

   

EUR

Consumer Confidence 

-20

 

-20

 

-21

 

 

USD

2-Year Note Auction 

       

0.250%

 

 

ARS

Argentinian Unemployment Rate 

   

7.3%

 

7.2%

 

 

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis February 22, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

06:30     EUR        French CPI (MoM)                                                           0.3%                      0.4%

The French Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.                           

08:00     EUR        French Manufacturing PMI                                         48.7                        48.5                       

08:30     EUR       German Manufacturing PMI                                      51.5                        51.0                       

09:00     EUR        Manufacturing PMI                                                       49.4                        48.8

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.                           

 09:30    GBP      MPC Meeting Minutes                 

The Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the Bank of England’s policy setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the decision on where to set interest rates. The breakdown of the MPC members’ interest rate votes tends to be the most important part of the minutes.      

10:00     EUR       Industrial New Orders (MoM)                                   0.6%                      -1.2%    

Industrial New Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of production.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.            

15:00     USD                      Existing Home Sales                                                     4.67M                     4.61M  

Existing Home Sales measures the change in the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. This report helps to gauge the strength of the U.S. housing market and is a key indicator of overall economic strength.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is currently at 1.580 down .50 as the USD picked up some momentum after worries about Greece continued to disturbs the markets. Tuesday was also the first day for the US markets which were closed on holiday Monday when the deals were concluded. The Sterling picked up some strength when public borrowings release by the BoE today surprised the markets coming in below forecast a positive sign for the pound.

 

 

February 21, 2012 Economic Reports actual v forecast

NZD

Inflation Expectations (QoQ) 

2.5%

     

2.8%

 

 

AUD

RBA Governor Stevens Speaks 

         

 

 

JPY

All Industries Activity Index (MoM) 

1.3%

 

1.5%

 

-1.0%

   

CHF

Trade Balance 

1.55B

 

2.50B

 

2.01B

   

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing 

-10.7B

 

-9.1B

 

11.1B

   

TRY

Turkish Interest Rate Decision 

5.75%

 

5.75%

 

5.75%

 

 

CAD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.2%

 

0.4%

   

CAD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2%

 

0.4%

   

CAD

Wholesale Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

0.5%

 

-0.3%

   

USD

Chicago Fed National Activity 

0.22

 

0.22

 

0.54

   

EUR

Consumer Confidence 

-20

 

-20

 

-21

 

 

USD

2-Year Note Auction 

       

0.250%

 

 

ARS

Argentinian Unemployment Rate 

   

7.3%

 

7.2%

 

 

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis February 22, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

06:30     EUR        French CPI (MoM)                                                           0.3%                      0.4%

The French Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.                           

08:00     EUR        French Manufacturing PMI                                         48.7                        48.5                       

08:30     EUR       German Manufacturing PMI                                      51.5                        51.0                       

09:00     EUR        Manufacturing PMI                                                       49.4                        48.8

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.                           

 09:30    GBP      MPC Meeting Minutes                 

The Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the Bank of England’s policy setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the decision on where to set interest rates. The breakdown of the MPC members’ interest rate votes tends to be the most important part of the minutes.      

10:00     EUR       Industrial New Orders (MoM)                                   0.6%                      -1.2%    

Industrial New Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of production.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.            

15:00     USD                      Existing Home Sales                                                     4.67M                     4.61M  

Existing Home Sales measures the change in the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. This report helps to gauge the strength of the U.S. housing market and is a key indicator of overall economic strength.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD changed hands at $1.3238, down from $1.3259. Euro-zone finance ministers agreed early Tuesday to provide a 130 billion euro ($172 billion) bailout to Greece, the second tranche of a rescue plan for the debt-ridden nation.

Also, a private-sector bond swap is set to be launched this week. Private bondholders will take write downs of 53% on the value of their holdings, up from an earlier proposal for haircuts of around 50% agreed in March. The agreement was announced late Monday evening so markets were still feeling the effects on Tuesday.

 

February 21, 2012 Economic Reports actual v forecast

NZD

Inflation Expectations (QoQ) 

2.5%

     

2.8%

 

 

AUD

RBA Governor Stevens Speaks 

         

 

 

JPY

All Industries Activity Index (MoM) 

1.3%

 

1.5%

 

-1.0%

   

CHF

Trade Balance 

1.55B

 

2.50B

 

2.01B

   

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing 

-10.7B

 

-9.1B

 

11.1B

   

TRY

Turkish Interest Rate Decision 

5.75%

 

5.75%

 

5.75%

 

 

CAD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.2%

 

0.4%

   

CAD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2%

 

0.4%

   

CAD

Wholesale Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

0.5%

 

-0.3%

   

USD

Chicago Fed National Activity 

0.22

 

0.22

 

0.54

   

EUR

Consumer Confidence 

-20

 

-20

 

-21

 

 

USD

2-Year Note Auction 

       

0.250%

 

 

ARS

Argentinian Unemployment Rate 

   

7.3%

 

7.2%

 

 

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP