EUR/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis February 20-24, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

Major Economic Reports due this week. Please refer to the daily reports for explaination and forecast

US Markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day Holiday

Feb. 21

00:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

Feb. 22

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

MPC Meeting Minutes 

 

15:00

 

USD

 

 

 

Existing Home Sales 

Feb. 23

09:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

Feb. 24

07:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German GDP (QoQ) 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

 

15:00

 

USD

 

 

 

New Home Sales 

 

Historical:

Highest: 1.5091 USD on 03 Dec 2009.

Average: 1.3709 USD over this period.

Lowest: 1.19 USD on 07 Jun 2010.

Rules:

Out of the major currency pairs the most popular and easy to trade currency pair is the EUR/USD. It has become so popular with traders these days that even when there is no visible trade to be had it is yet traded as a matter of habit. This is of course something that should be avoided and any investor who trades this currency pair wisely can do so successfully with sizable profits at the end of the day.

The first thing with trading currencies is to realize that the EUR/USD is made up of two separate currencies although considered to be one unit when taken as a pair. The weaknesses and strengths of each currency have to be taken into consideration when trading the unit as it influences the final outcome. Another factor that is often overlooked by traders or investors is that the weakening of one currency along with the strengthening of the other currency in the pair results in the generation of pips. It is according to this that entry and exit from the Forex market has to be done in order to maintain profitability.

Trading comprises of careful market studying, strategizing, planning and executing the plan in a timely manner. This is entirely different to scalping which is resorted to by many a trader on a regular basis. These traders are often clueless as to the market situation and just use this as a type of defense mechanism to compensate for the general lack of information and knowledge. The EUR/USD is a currency pair that certainly offers a lot of currencies trading opportunities if handled correctly.

Characteristics

Average broker spread: 2-3 pips 
Daily range average: 90-100 pips 
Best time to trade: Euro Session (0700 GMT – 1700 GMT) 
some factors affecting the EUR/USD rate: 

  • The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Federal Reserve(FED)
  • Dollar strength drives EUR/USD lower
  • FED intervention to weaken the dollar the sends EUR/USD higher

Trading the EUR/USD 

Trading Experience: New and Advanced currency traders 
Trading Style: Day trading and Swing trading 

1) Applying Technical Analysis and/or Analyzing Fundamental News from the Euro and US zone to make EUR/USD trading decisions. Breaking strong psychological levels (1.3000, 1.2000,..) and/or surprising economic news releases can make the EUR/USD move a lot in one direction without much retracements. 

2) Since the EUR/USD pair tends to be negatively correlated to the USD/CHF, it is always a good idea to compare both EUR/USD and USD/CHF charts in order to predict future moves, if USD/CHF breaks above an important resistance level and EUR/USD didn’t break support level yet, the EUR/USD is very likely to break below support level. 

Analysis and Recommendation:

The EUR/USD is trading today at 1.3139 after seesawing all week, almost breaking the 1.33 mark and falling to below the 1.30 level. There was little in the way of economic data that influenced the pair. It was all on rumor, news and actions in Greece, between the off again on again deal in Greece.

Beginning the week with votes in Athens to problems between Germany and Greece, to comments and accusations hurdled between leaders. On to the ECB old bond new bond swap.. Finally ending on Friday with comments from Merkel and Monti that a deal could be in place on Monday. Today’s news now says that the ECB bond swap is scheduled for March 8. No details on any side.. just innuendo and rumors.

Good luck figuring this one out. US markets are closed on Monday for the Presidents Day Holiday

Strength

  • Greek bailout and PSI deal looking more likely AGAIN, at least that’s what markets think as Greek stocks rally 3.4% on week, European credit CDS narrower, European banks bounce and US stocks continue their march. Merkel and Monti assure the markets.
  • German ZEW investor confidence figure rises to best since April
  • Initial Jobless Claims fall to lowest since 2008 at 348k, well below estimates of 365k
  • Philly and NY manufacturers  surveys up but components mixed as headline #’s are not sum of parts
  • Housing starts continue to grow for multi-units (apt/condo)
  • NAHB home builder index up 4 pts, 3 pts better than expected and highest since May ’07
  • India’s wholesale inflation rises at slowest pace since Nov ’09, leaves open room to cut rates
  • Australia central bank surprises with a hold on interest rates
  • UK announces new round of QE
  • Australia and NZ have positive economic reports
  • China reduces bank reserves
  • ECB deposit facility falls
  • Japanese exporters see some breathing room with weaker yen to lowest since July after BoJ embarks on even more QE

 

Weakness

  • Greek saga never ending, ECB wants special treatment old bond new bond swap
  • Euro zone GDP in Q4 contracts .3% q/o/q, although touch better than estimates of .4%
  • Portugal’s unemployment rate rises to 14% in Q4 from 12.4%, the highest since at least ’98
  • Singapore confirms Jan estimate of Q4 GDP contraction
  • Japanese economy shrinks more than expected in Q4, BoJ can’t help itself with more QE
  • Chinese FDI in Jan falls .3%, 3rd month in a row of declines
  • US Jan Retail Sales ex auto’s weaker than expected (but Dec revised up)
  • CPI rate of change a below estimate m/o/m, core rate rises to highest since Sept ’08 y/o/y. Overall index at another record high.

 

Economic Highlights Feb 13-17 actual v. forecast

Feb. 14

 

JPY

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

BoJ Press Conference 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

5.4

 

-11.6 

 

-21.6 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

BOE Inflation Letter 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.6% 

 

-0.5% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.8% 

 

0.0% 

   

Feb. 15

 

EUR

 

 

 

German GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

-0.3% 

 

0.6% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Claimant Count Change 

6.9K

 

3.2K 

 

1.9K 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

BoE Inflation Report 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

BoE Gov King Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

FOMC Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Feb. 16

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

348K

 

364K 

 

361K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Feb. 17

 

GBP

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.1% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3% 

 

0.0% 

   

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis February 20-24, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events:  (GMT)

Major Economic Reports due this week. Please refer to the daily reports for explaination and forecast

US Markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day Holiday

Feb. 21

00:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

Feb. 22

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

MPC Meeting Minutes 

 

15:00

 

USD

 

 

 

Existing Home Sales 

Feb. 23

09:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

Feb. 24

07:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German GDP (QoQ) 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

 

15:00

 

USD

 

 

 

New Home Sales 

 

Rule:

The USD/JPY foreign currency exchange rate is the price of one U.S. dollar – the base currency – in terms of Japanese yen – the quote currency. For example, a bid/ask quote of 89.29/89.32 means that one U.S. dollar can be bought for 89.32 yen and one U.S. dollar can be sold at 89.29 yen.

If the U.S. dollar is expected to appreciate against the yen, then the above quote might rise to say, 89.73/89.76. The forex strategy in this case would be to buy USD/JPY. If, on the other hand, the U.S. dollar is expected to depreciate against the yen, then the above quote might fall to say, 88.68/88.71. The forex strategy in this case would be to sell USD/JPY.

In the USD/JPY trade, trying to pick tops or bottoms during that time would have been difficult. However, with the bull trend so dominant, the far easier and smarter trade was to look for technical opportunities to go with the fundamental theme and trade with the market trend rather than to trying to fade it.

Against the Japanese yen, whose central bank held rates steady at zero, the dollar appreciated 19% from its lowest to highest levels. USD/JPY was in a very strong uptrend throughout the year, but even so, there were plenty of retraces along the way. These pullbacks were perfect opportunities for traders to combine technicals with fundamentals to enter the trade at an opportune moment. 

Daily range average : 80-90 pips
Best time to trade: Asian Session (2400 GMT – 0900 GMT) 
Some factors affecting the USD/JPY rate: 

  • The interest rate differential between the Bank of Japan(BoJ) and the Federal Reserve
  • Japanese government intervention to maintain their currency sends USD/JPY lower

 

Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY climbed at the end of the week on positive US news causing the safe-haven yen to take significant losses. The better than expected US Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index led to investor risk taking throughout the evening session. The USD/JPY hit a 3 ½ month high before hitting significant resistance close to the 79.00 level.

The Yen is trading at of this writing at 79.56. There are no significant economic reports due in Japan this week and the US markets are closed on Monday for the Presidents Day Holiday

Strength

  • Greek bailout and PSI deal looking more likely AGAIN, at least that’s what markets think as Greek stocks rally 3.4% on week, European credit CDS narrower, European banks bounce and US stocks continue their march. Merkel and Monti assure the markets.
  • German ZEW investor confidence figure rises to best since April
  • Initial Jobless Claims fall to lowest since 2008 at 348k, well below estimates of 365k
  • Philly and NY manufacturers  surveys up but components mixed as headline #’s are not sum of parts
  • Housing starts continue to grow for multi-units (apt/condo)
  • NAHB home builder index up 4 pts, 3 pts better than expected and highest since May ’07
  • India’s wholesale inflation rises at slowest pace since Nov ’09, leaves open room to cut rates
  • Australia central bank surprises with a hold on interest rates
  • UK announces new round of QE
  • Australia and NZ have positive economic reports
  • China reduces bank reserves
  • ECB deposit facility falls
  • Japanese exporters see some breathing room with weaker yen to lowest since July after BoJ embarks on even more QE

 

Weakness

  • Greek saga never ending, ECB wants special treatment old bond new bond swap
  • Euro zone GDP in Q4 contracts .3% q/o/q, although touch better than estimates of .4%
  • Portugal’s unemployment rate rises to 14% in Q4 from 12.4%, the highest since at least ’98
  • Singapore confirms Jan estimate of Q4 GDP contraction
  • Japanese economy shrinks more than expected in Q4, BoJ can’t help itself with more QE
  • Chinese FDI in Jan falls .3%, 3rd month in a row of declines
  • US Jan Retail Sales ex auto’s weaker than expected (but Dec revised up)
  • CPI rate of change a below estimate m/o/m, core rate rises to highest since Sept ’08 y/o/y. Overall index at another record high.

 

Economic Highlights Feb 13-17 actual v. forecast

Feb. 14

 

JPY

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

BoJ Press Conference 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

5.4

 

-11.6 

 

-21.6 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

BOE Inflation Letter 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.6% 

 

-0.5% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.8% 

 

0.0% 

   

Feb. 15

 

EUR

 

 

 

German GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

-0.3% 

 

0.6% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Claimant Count Change 

6.9K

 

3.2K 

 

1.9K 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

BoE Inflation Report 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

BoE Gov King Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

FOMC Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Feb. 16

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

348K

 

364K 

 

361K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Feb. 17

 

GBP

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.1% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3% 

 

0.0% 

   

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis February 20-24, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY



  • US Markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day Holiday
  •  

Feb. 21

00:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

Feb. 22

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

MPC Meeting Minutes 

 

15:00

 

USD

 

 

 

Existing Home Sales 

Feb. 23

09:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

Feb. 24

07:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German GDP (QoQ) 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

 

15:00

 

USD

 

 

 

New Home Sales 

 

Historical:

High:     114.57 

Low:      76.84

Rule:

Crude Oil is considered the king of the commodities markets.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the United States’ emergency oil stockpile, and it is the largest emergency petroleum supply in the world. The reserve stores about 570 million barrels of crude oil in underground salt caverns at four sites along the Gulf of Mexico. Any dipping into this reserve is going to be big news.

Brent Crude is traded in London as something called Futures contracts, which are priced in US Dollars. Now, all you traders brave enough to run your positions over a period of days or weeks, pay attention here:
Oil spread bets are monthly contracts. This means that:
a) You don’t pay any rollover charges; the bet will run until the contract ends;
b) Now, get this, the spread bet runs out (contract expires) in the middle of the month before the month it says on the tin. So, for example, the Brent Crude August contract runs out (expires) on 14th July. How dumb is that?

West Texas Intermediate is the US equivalent to Brent Crude. Commonly known as US Light Sweet Crude (or any derivation of these words), it is called “US Crude” on the some platforms.

An alternative, less precise way of trading oil is through the equity market, but in my view this needs a good understanding of the underlying companies. For example, the rise in the oil price isn’t necessarily reflected in the major companies’ share price. This is partly because the cost and availability of refining impacts on the profit line and partly because, despite all the science, a large part of their business involves the costly process of sticking long poles in the ground and seeing if they come up black.

There are exceptions; smaller companies like Tullow Oil and Dana Petroleum are linked more to exploration than refining. Each new discovery seems to notch up a couple of quid on the share price. And they’ve got the added attraction that one of the majors might decide it’s cheaper to bid for them than to look for new reserves itself.

Effect on the FTSE
The Oil & Gas sector accounts for roughly 20% of the FTSE, so whatever happens to the oil majors will have quite an effect on the underlying market.

What to watch when trading
trading oil involves keeping an eye on a few different factors to the standard investment stuff. In addition to the run of the mill economic data that will gives clues as to whether the world’s factories are burning more or less oil there’re a couple of seasonal factors:

First, courtesy of Top Gear, there’s the US Driving Season 

Now switch over to the weather forecast to see how windy it is. The US Hurricane Season officially runs from 1st June to 30th November, but don’t expect the forces of nature to pay too much attention to the dates. Hurricanes tend to hit the Gulf of Mexico, which is filled to the rafters with oilrigs (over 20 rigs went missing due to Hurricane Katrina in 2005).

Notice the seasonal rise in the oil price during the hurricane season.

On a smaller, less destructive scale watch out for particularly cold winters where the heating’s turned on full blast and, paradoxically, particularly hot summers in the US, where they prefer turning on the ‘aircon’ to sitting in the shade.

Next take a look at the world’s big oil producers. You won’t find oil gushing out of stable and predictable countries like Belgium, Sweden or Switzerland. No, putting aside the comparatively stable USA and Saudi Arabia, God blessed the world’s more colorful characters with the power and wealth of massive oil supplies. A short roll call includes Iraq, Iran, Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela and Russia, where a few well-chosen words from a president can send you sprinting to the ‘trade’ button.

And finally the most specific economic data to focus on are the US weekly oil and gas inventory figures, issued by the Energy Information Administration and released every week on Wednesday afternoons. If you trade oil you can’t afford to miss these.

Oil Trading Strategies
the choice here is between trading your views and using technical analysis keep in mind you’ll be up against specialists who might have the inside track on something.

Analysis and Recommendation:

Crude Oil  rose this week  to its highest in nine months as lingering geopolitical worries kept a fear premium in the markets and traders grew optimistic the Greek saga is closer to an end.Crude f  rose 93 cents, or 0.9%, to end at $103.24 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was oil’s highest since May 10. Oil is expected to hold close to this range throughout the week.

US markets are closed on Monday for the Presidents Day Holiday

Strength

  • Greek bailout and PSI deal looking more likely AGAIN, at least that’s what markets think as Greek stocks rally 3.4% on week, European credit CDS narrower, European banks bounce and US stocks continue their march. Merkel and Monti assure the markets.
  • German ZEW investor confidence figure rises to best since April
  • Initial Jobless Claims fall to lowest since 2008 at 348k, well below estimates of 365k
  • Philly and NY manufacturers  surveys up but components mixed as headline #’s are not sum of parts
  • Housing starts continue to grow for multi-units (apt/condo)
  • NAHB home builder index up 4 pts, 3 pts better than expected and highest since May ’07
  • India’s wholesale inflation rises at slowest pace since Nov ’09, leaves open room to cut rates
  • Australia central bank surprises with a hold on interest rates
  • UK announces new round of QE
  • Australia and NZ have positive economic reports
  • China reduces bank reserves
  • ECB deposit facility falls
  • Japanese exporters see some breathing room with weaker yen to lowest since July after BoJ embarks on even more QE

 

Weakness

  • Greek saga never ending, ECB wants special treatment old bond new bond swap
  • Euro zone GDP in Q4 contracts .3% q/o/q, although touch better than estimates of .4%
  • Portugal’s unemployment rate rises to 14% in Q4 from 12.4%, the highest since at least ’98
  • Singapore confirms Jan estimate of Q4 GDP contraction
  • Japanese economy shrinks more than expected in Q4, BoJ can’t help itself with more QE
  • Chinese FDI in Jan falls .3%, 3rd month in a row of declines
  • US Jan Retail Sales ex auto’s weaker than expected (but Dec revised up)
  • CPI rate of change a below estimate m/o/m, core rate rises to highest since Sept ’08 y/o/y. Overall index at another record high.

 

Economic Highlights Feb 13-17 actual v. forecast

Feb. 14

 

JPY

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

BoJ Press Conference 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

5.4

 

-11.6 

 

-21.6 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

BOE Inflation Letter 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.6% 

 

-0.5% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.8% 

 

0.0% 

   

Feb. 15

 

EUR

 

 

 

German GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

-0.3% 

 

0.6% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Claimant Count Change 

6.9K

 

3.2K 

 

1.9K 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

BoE Inflation Report 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

BoE Gov King Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

FOMC Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Feb. 16

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

348K

 

364K 

 

361K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Feb. 17

 

GBP

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.1% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3% 

 

0.0% 

   

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

Natural Gas Weekly Fundamental Analysis February 20-24, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

                               

Historical:

High      5.13 January 2011

Low        2.29 January 20, 2011

Rule:

Natural gas is sometimes said to be the queen of all commodities, with Crude Oil being king. Natural gas is nevertheless a major commodity in its own right, which is used for everything from cooking food to heating houses during the winter. Natural Gas is growing much faster than either of its non-renewable fossil fuel competitors, oil and coal.

Trading natural gas is not for the faint hearted. Even by commodities standards, natural gas is a notoriously volatile market subject to wild price fluctuations.

Do not miss the weekly U.S. gas inventories report. The figures are issued by the Energy Information Administration(EIA) every Thursday afternoon at 15:30 (released Friday at 15:30 if there was a U.S. bank holiday on Monday). Here’s a link to the latest EIA report. The main natural gas moving figure in there is the change in inventories from the previous week. When it comes to the gas inventories report, we’re talking about billions of cubic feet, Bcf for short.

When the actual change in inventories number is released, it is the deviation from the expected number that is really important. If the actual inventories figure shows a 24 Bcf rise when an 84 Bcf increase was expected, then that is actually positive for the price of natural gas. All else equal, the price of natural gas should rise after the release.

A barrel of oil has roughly 6 times the energy content of natural gas. If the fuels were perfect substitutes, oil prices would tend to be about 6 times natural gas prices. However, due to various market characteristics discussed briefly above and the ease of using oil, the price of oil has been following a pattern of 8-12 times that of natural gas. However that ratio has spiked dramatically since March 2009.

The average natural gas futures price for the upcoming winter is less than $4 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), the lowest level entering the winter since 2001-2002. The so-called “winter strip,” the average natural gas futures price for the contract months November through March as settled on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), is a closely followed measure of market participants’ price expectations. In markets such as New England and California, where natural gas prices often set on-peak, wholesale power prices, the NYMEX winter strip for natural gas also can influence expectations for forward wholesale power prices.

Late October expectations for average winter natural gas prices have not been this low since the winter of 2001-2002. Winter price expectations, as reflected through the winter strip on NYMEX, peaked at almost $12 per MMBtu in 2005 in the aftermath of supply disruptions related to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Starting in 2009, late fall expectations for average winter natural gas futures prices dipped under $5 per MMBtu as domestic natural gas production from shale plays grew rapidly.

 Analysis and Recommendation:

Natural Gas is the outstanding mover of the week. For no express reason, except a drop in weekly inventory natural gas has climbed to 2.8320

Moving from a low of 2.36 a few weeks ago, natural gas has continued to surge. Weather is stable, inventories have fallen due to reduced production because of the low prices. Two weeks ago Chesapeake Energy announced the suspension of product due to high inventories, low demand and low prices.

 The EIA stated natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended February 10 fell by 127 billion cubic feet, after declining by 78 billion cubic feet in the preceding week. 

Inventories fell by 230 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a decline of 178 billion cubic feet, according to U.S. Energy Department data.

Gold Weekly Fundamental Analysis February 20-24, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

Major Economic Reports due this week. Please refer to the daily reports for explaination and forecast

US Markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day Holiday

Feb. 21

00:30

 

AUD

     

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

13:30

 

CAD

     

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

Feb. 22

09:30

 

GBP

     

MPC Meeting Minutes 

 

15:00

 

USD

     

Existing Home Sales 

Feb. 23

09:00

 

EUR

     

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

 

13:30

 

USD

     

Initial Jobless Claims 

Feb. 24

07:00

 

EUR

     

German GDP (QoQ) 

 

09:30

 

GBP

     

GDP (QoQ) 

 

15:00

 

USD

     

New Home Sales 

 

Historical

High:     1916.20

Low:      1321.10                        

Rule:

One of the simplest ways for traders or investors to take part of this intense gold up trend is to let price action be their guide. In taking a look at the daily chart of gold, we can see numerous price action strategies that occurred in the context of this trending market that nearly all worked out as great entry points. Notice in this chart below how accurate price action can be and the frequency with which it provides high probability entry signals. By no means are we suggesting traders should have or could have taken all of these entries. But when you combine such high probability entry strategies with a sound money management plan, including a profit taking strategy, it would be very hard too not profit consistently in strongly trending markets like we are currently seeing in gold.

Gold is a bull force to be reckoned with right now, when a market is in a strong trend there will naturally be many great entry points. Price action setups can provide a plethora of accurate and non-lagging entries into such trends.

• Human discretion plays a big role in trading success, despite what internet marketers want you to believe, rigid trading “robot” and lagging indicator systems will never make you a consistently profitable trader. You need to get an education in price dynamics and “naked” price chart reading to develop your discretionary trading skills.

• There is simply no need to cloud up your charts with lagging indicators when mastering a few simple price action setups is much more accurate, effective, efficient, and stress free.

• When fundamental AND technical forces are in alignment, as with the current situation in gold, price action traders have an extremely valuable opportunity because trading with price action allows for much more accurate entries than other methods as well as providing traders with a “set and forget” style of trading when used in combination with simple risk to reward scenarios.

Gold prices always rise when there is uncertainty in the global economy. In times of uncertainty, wealthy investors tend to run towards gold. Suppose, rumors are flying high about some event in the world and this is increasing the uncertainty in the financial markets. Gold prices are on the rise again. You now buy three gold contracts. By the end of the week, each contract is up by 100 points. You make a cool $3,000 when you sell the three contracts. This way, you complete your third trade in a series of four trades.

This completes the third trade in the series of four trades. Now, you are ready for the fourth trade. You watch the market. It is moving up again. You enter with four contracts this time. You wait for a few days and the market is up by 50 points. You sell all the four contracts and make a profit of $2,000. Your total profit in this series of four trades is $6,500. This profit you made in just a matter of few weeks which is not bad. After you complete a series of four trades, you remove the profit from your account. Now, you can start all over again with a new series of four trades. The first trade in this series of four trades will always be with one contract.

This is a very simple gold trading strategy that depends on pyramiding your position with a series of four trades and removing all the profit from your account at the end of these four trades. With practice, you will find this gold trading strategy very simple and easy to implement.

  • Gold reacts to uncertainity in the markets
  • A drop in major currencies can indicate a run into gold.
  • Remember investors tend to take profit from gold so watch for trading opportunties when investors are taking profits, not moving out of the markets.


Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold is trading on Sunday at 1725.45 down 3.65

Gold bounced around all week on risk appetite on news and rumors over Greece, ending the week flat but falling during weekend trading.

US markets are closed on Monday for the Presidents Day Holiday

Gold is forecast to stay in the 1715-1745.00 range until a final settlement with Greece is decided. 

Strength

  • Greek bailout and PSI deal looking more likely AGAIN, at least that’s what markets think as Greek stocks rally 3.4% on week, European credit CDS narrower, European banks bounce and US stocks continue their march. Merkel and Monti assure the markets.
  • German ZEW investor confidence figure rises to best since April
  • Initial Jobless Claims fall to lowest since 2008 at 348k, well below estimates of 365k
  • Philly and NY manufacturers  surveys up but components mixed as headline #’s are not sum of parts
  • Housing starts continue to grow for multi-units (apt/condo)
  • NAHB home builder index up 4 pts, 3 pts better than expected and highest since May ’07
  • India’s wholesale inflation rises at slowest pace since Nov ’09, leaves open room to cut rates
  • Australia central bank surprises with a hold on interest rates
  • UK announces new round of QE
  • Australia and NZ have positive economic reports
  • China reduces bank reserves
  • ECB deposit facility falls
  • Japanese exporters see some breathing room with weaker yen to lowest since July after BoJ embarks on even more QE

 

Weakness

  • Greek saga never ending, ECB wants special treatment old bond new bond swap
  • Euro zone GDP in Q4 contracts .3% q/o/q, although touch better than estimates of .4%
  • Portugal’s unemployment rate rises to 14% in Q4 from 12.4%, the highest since at least ’98
  • Singapore confirms Jan estimate of Q4 GDP contraction
  • Japanese economy shrinks more than expected in Q4, BoJ can’t help itself with more QE
  • Chinese FDI in Jan falls .3%, 3rd month in a row of declines
  • US Jan Retail Sales ex auto’s weaker than expected (but Dec revised up)
  • CPI rate of change a below estimate m/o/m, core rate rises to highest since Sept ’08 y/o/y. Overall index at another record high.

 

Economic Highlights Feb 13-17 actual v. forecast

Feb. 14

 

JPY

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

BoJ Press Conference 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

5.4

 

-11.6 

 

-21.6 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

BOE Inflation Letter 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.6% 

 

-0.5% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.8% 

 

0.0% 

   

Feb. 15

 

EUR

 

 

 

German GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

-0.3% 

 

0.6% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Claimant Count Change 

6.9K

 

3.2K 

 

1.9K 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

BoE Inflation Report 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

BoE Gov King Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

FOMC Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Feb. 16

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

348K

 

364K 

 

361K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Feb. 17

 

GBP

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.1% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3% 

 

0.0% 

   

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis February 20-24, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

Major Economic Reports due this week. Please refer to the daily reports for explaination and forecast

US Markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day Holiday

Feb. 21

00:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

Feb. 22

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

MPC Meeting Minutes 

 

15:00

 

USD

 

 

 

Existing Home Sales 

Feb. 23

09:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

Feb. 24

07:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German GDP (QoQ) 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

 

15:00

 

USD

 

 

 

New Home Sales 

 

Historical

Highest: 0.8816 USD on 31 Jul 2011.

Average: 0.7543 USD over this period.

Lowest: 0.6619 USD on 07 Jun 2010.

Rule:

NZD/USD: The recent strength of the kiwi, a currency sometimes overlooked by traders, made its moves much more predictable. This applies to support and resistance lines alike. This is a very safe pair to trade, not a great deal of volatility but predictablilty.

Analysis and Recommendation:

NZD/USD is trading on Sunday at 0.8321after opening at 0.8330. The kiwi spent the week chasing the USD, which was supported by a week of good economic reports including unemployment and CPI. But the main mover of the week was and has been Greece as the markets chased every bit of news, rumor and statement from Greece and the EU markets reacted drastically, sending the euro below the 1.30 critical point and then back up close to the 1.33. The USD moved against the euro effecting all of its trading partners. The US markets are closed on Monday so it should be a fairly quiet day, at least on volume

Strength

  • Greek bailout and PSI deal looking more likely AGAIN, at least that’s what markets think as Greek stocks rally 3.4% on week, European credit CDS narrower, European banks bounce and US stocks continue their march. Merkel and Monti assure the markets.
  • German ZEW investor confidence figure rises to best since April
  • Initial Jobless Claims fall to lowest since 2008 at 348k, well below estimates of 365k
  • Philly and NY manufacturers  surveys up but components mixed as headline #’s are not sum of parts
  • Housing starts continue to grow for multi-units (apt/condo)
  • NAHB home builder index up 4 pts, 3 pts better than expected and highest since May ’07
  • India’s wholesale inflation rises at slowest pace since Nov ’09, leaves open room to cut rates
  • Australia central bank surprises with a hold on interest rates
  • UK announces new round of QE
  • Australia and NZ have positive economic reports
  • China reduces bank reserves
  • ECB deposit facility falls
  • Japanese exporters see some breathing room with weaker yen to lowest since July after BoJ embarks on even more QE

 

Weakness

  • Greek saga never ending, ECB wants special treatment old bond new bond swap
  • Euro zone GDP in Q4 contracts .3% q/o/q, although touch better than estimates of .4%
  • Portugal’s unemployment rate rises to 14% in Q4 from 12.4%, the highest since at least ’98
  • Singapore confirms Jan estimate of Q4 GDP contraction
  • Japanese economy shrinks more than expected in Q4, BoJ can’t help itself with more QE
  • Chinese FDI in Jan falls .3%, 3rd month in a row of declines
  • US Jan Retail Sales ex auto’s weaker than expected (but Dec revised up)
  • CPI rate of change a below estimate m/o/m, core rate rises to highest since Sept ’08 y/o/y. Overall index at another record high.

 

Economic Highlights Feb 13-17 actual v. forecast

Feb. 14

 

JPY

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

BoJ Press Conference 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

5.4

 

-11.6 

 

-21.6 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

BOE Inflation Letter 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.6% 

 

-0.5% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.8% 

 

0.0% 

   

Feb. 15

 

EUR

 

 

 

German GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

-0.3% 

 

0.6% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Claimant Count Change 

6.9K

 

3.2K 

 

1.9K 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

BoE Inflation Report 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

BoE Gov King Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

FOMC Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Feb. 16

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

348K

 

364K 

 

361K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Feb. 17

 

GBP

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.1% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3% 

 

0.0% 

   

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis February 20-24, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

Major Economic Reports due this week. Please refer to the daily reports for explaination and forecast

US Markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day Holiday

Feb. 21

00:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

Feb. 22

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

MPC Meeting Minutes 

 

15:00

 

USD

 

 

 

Existing Home Sales 

Feb. 23

09:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

Feb. 24

07:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German GDP (QoQ) 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

 

15:00

 

USD

 

 

 

New Home Sales 

 

Rule:

The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors

 Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is trading at 1.0706 over the weekend.  The Aussie climbed to a weekly high of USD1.0797 on Friday on optimism over a rescue package for Greece, but gains were capped below the 1.0800 figure before a key meeting on Monday that my produce an official an agreement. This has been a crazy week for all the USD trading partners as economic data in the US was strong as well as positive data in Australia, but the market flow was controlled by Greece all week long with the euro surging and falling. Monday US markets are closed and news is expected from Greece and the EU.

The RBA surprised markets and held rates.

Strength

  • Greek bailout and PSI deal looking more likely AGAIN, at least that’s what markets think as Greek stocks rally 3.4% on week, European credit CDS narrower, European banks bounce and US stocks continue their march. Merkel and Monti assure the markets.
  • German ZEW investor confidence figure rises to best since April
  • Initial Jobless Claims fall to lowest since 2008 at 348k, well below estimates of 365k
  • Philly and NY manufacturers  surveys up but components mixed as headline #’s are not sum of parts
  • Housing starts continue to grow for multi-units (apt/condo)
  • NAHB home builder index up 4 pts, 3 pts better than expected and highest since May ’07
  • India’s wholesale inflation rises at slowest pace since Nov ’09, leaves open room to cut rates
  • Australia central bank surprises with a hold on interest rates
  • UK announces new round of QE
  • Australia and NZ have positive economic reports
  • China reduces bank reserves
  • ECB deposit facility falls
  • Japanese exporters see some breathing room with weaker yen to lowest since July after BoJ embarks on even more QE

 

Weakness

  • Greek saga never ending, ECB wants special treatment old bond new bond swap
  • Euro zone GDP in Q4 contracts .3% q/o/q, although touch better than estimates of .4%
  • Portugal’s unemployment rate rises to 14% in Q4 from 12.4%, the highest since at least ’98
  • Singapore confirms Jan estimate of Q4 GDP contraction
  • Japanese economy shrinks more than expected in Q4, BoJ can’t help itself with more QE
  • Chinese FDI in Jan falls .3%, 3rd month in a row of declines
  • US Jan Retail Sales ex auto’s weaker than expected (but Dec revised up)
  • CPI rate of change a below estimate m/o/m, core rate rises to highest since Sept ’08 y/o/y. Overall index at another record high.

 

Economic Highlights Feb 13-17 actual v. forecast

Feb. 14

 

JPY

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

BoJ Press Conference 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

5.4

 

-11.6 

 

-21.6 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

BOE Inflation Letter 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.6% 

 

-0.5% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.8% 

 

0.0% 

   

Feb. 15

 

EUR

 

 

 

German GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

-0.3% 

 

0.6% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Claimant Count Change 

6.9K

 

3.2K 

 

1.9K 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

BoE Inflation Report 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

BoE Gov King Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

FOMC Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Feb. 16

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

348K

 

364K 

 

361K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Feb. 17

 

GBP

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.1% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3% 

 

0.0% 

   

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis February 20, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

US markets closed for the Presidents Day Holiday

Feb. 20 00:01     GBP       Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     EUR       German Import Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     CHF        Trade Balance

                 08:15    CHF       Employment Level

                23:50     JPY         Trade Balance

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is currently trading 0.9958 down from this mornings opening of 0.9967. Traders are optimistic and moving to more risky assets as news from Greece of a possible agreement. Moves by the ECB on a new bond old bond swap, lifted the spirits of investors along with comments by Merkel and Monti that a deal might be in place by Monday. Monday will be a quiet day as the US markets are closed for the Presidents Day Holiday

The  US economy is expected to continue strengthening, possibly picking up this spring and summer, the Conference Board said Friday as it detailed  its index of leading economic indicators grew 0.4% in January, led by the interest-rate spread and manufacturing hours.

The underlying rate of U.S. inflation accelerated by the fastest pace in four months in January, the Labor Department said Friday. The consumer price index increased 0.2%, pushed by the first increase in gasoline prices since September. Food prices rose 0.2 % for the second straight month. The core CPI index, excluding food and energy costs, was up 0.2% in January. Economists were expecting the CPI to rise 0.3% in January after remaining flat in the prior month. The core rate was expected to rise 0.2% after rising 0.1% in the previous month.

The government’s consumer price index rose 0.2

Friday February 17, 2012 Economic Reports actual v. forecast

SGD

 

Singaporean Trade Balance 

1.26B

     

7.61B

 

 

EUR

 

German PPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.2%

 

-0.4%

 

 

EUR

 

Current Account 

2.0B

 

2.3B

 

-0.9B

   

GBP

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

-0.2%

 

0.6%

 

 

BRL

 

Brazilian Unemployment Rate 

5.5%

 

5.4%

 

4.7%

 

 

CAD

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.1%

 

-0.5%

 

 

CAD

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.3%

 

-0.6%

 

 

USD

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3%

 

0.1%

 

 

USD

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3%

 

0.0%

 

 

CAD

 

Leading Indicators (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.6%

 

0.7%

   

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis February 20, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

US markets are closed for the Presidents Day Holiday

WEEKLY

 

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil continues to climb now trading at 103.66 up almost 1%.

EIA reported that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 0.2 million barrels in the week ended February 10, missing projections for a 1.7 million barrel increase. U.S. crude supplies rose by 0.3 million barrels in the preceding week. 

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 339.1 million barrels as of last week, remaining in the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.

Crude-oil rose to their highest levels since May as geopolitical tensions involving Iran keep a fear premium in the markets and traders grow optimistic that Greek saga is closer to an end.

Crude Oil is currently trading

Friday February 17, 2012 Economic Reports actual v. forecast

SGD

 

Singaporean Trade Balance 

1.26B

     

7.61B

 

 

EUR

 

German PPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.2%

 

-0.4%

 

 

EUR

 

Current Account 

2.0B

 

2.3B

 

-0.9B

   

GBP

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

-0.2%

 

0.6%

 

 

BRL

 

Brazilian Unemployment Rate 

5.5%

 

5.4%

 

4.7%

 

 

CAD

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.1%

 

-0.5%

 

 

CAD

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.3%

 

-0.6%

 

 

USD

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3%

 

0.1%

 

 

USD

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3%

 

0.0%

 

 

CAD

 

Leading Indicators (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.6%

 

0.7%

   

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis February 20, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

US Markets are closed for the Presidents Day Holiday

WEEKLY

 

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas skyrocketed today, moving up to 2.732 and then settled at 2.700 up 13.4 by late Friday afternoon. The EIA stated natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended February 10 fell by 127 billion cubic feet, after declining by 78 billion cubic feet in the preceding week. 

Analysts had expected U.S. natural gas storage to drop by 126 billion cubic feet. 

Inventories fell by 230 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a decline of 178 billion cubic feet, according to U.S. Energy Department data.

This is the only news that has been effecting NG, combined with news a while back regarding Chesapeake Energy, there is not obvious signal as to what is pushing the prices.

Gold Fundamental Analysis February 20, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

US markets are closed for the Presidents Day Holiday

Just a heads up since gold is volatile and will react to most economic indicators we will begin to post the daily calendar with events that could effect the price of gold. The gold price is sensitive to a number of scheduled U.S. and Euro area macroeconomic announcements—including retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation. Gold’s high sensitivity to real interest rates and its unique role as a safe-haven and store of value typically leads to a counter-cyclical reaction to surprise news, in contrast to their commodities. It also shows a particularly high sensitivity to negative surprises that might lead financial investors to become more risk averse.  

These results have a number of implications. To reduce the uncertainty of the return on gold transactions, traders may wish to time their orders flow so as to avoid the release of information that has been shown to affect prices. For longer-term market participants, these results provide confirmation of the pro-cyclical bias of many commodities and gold’s role as a safe-haven during periods of economic uncertainty.

Friday February 17, 2012 Economic Reports actual v. forecast

SGD

 

Singaporean Trade Balance 

1.26B

     

7.61B

 

 

EUR

 

German PPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.2%

 

-0.4%

 

 

EUR

 

Current Account 

2.0B

 

2.3B

 

-0.9B

   

GBP

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

-0.2%

 

0.6%

 

 

BRL

 

Brazilian Unemployment Rate 

5.5%

 

5.4%

 

4.7%

 

 

CAD

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.1%

 

-0.5%

 

 

CAD

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.3%

 

-0.6%

 

 

USD

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3%

 

0.1%

 

 

USD

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3%

 

0.0%

 

 

CAD

 

Leading Indicators (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.6%

 

0.7%

   

 

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold is trading 1724.55

The gold prices dropped $1724.55 an ounce during flat trading, as speculation continued over whether a Greek bailout will be agreed next week. Signals from Chancellor Merkel and also the ECB that a Greek deal might be close to materializing on Monday, investors were in more positive sentiments. Gold continued its descent as investors moved from safety to more risky assets.

 The  US  currency markets were quiet as were those for commodities and stocks ahead of President’s Day in the US on Monday.

“A quiet session,” said one gold dealer this morning.

EUR/CHF Fundamental Analysis February 20, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

Feb. 20 00:01     GBP       Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     EUR       German Import Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     CHF        Trade Balance

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

                 08:15    CHF       Employment Level

                23:50     JPY         Trade Balance

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

Analysis and Recommendations:

EUR/CHF is trading at 1.2081 up 0.0010

The euro has been making moves today, as more positive news made the press today over Greece. Chancellor Merkel signaled there could be a deal as early as Monday and the markets viewed the ECB bond swap positively. Pushing the euro up all day.

Euro-zone construction output edged up for the second month running in December, but that wasn’t enough to stop a contraction in the fourth quarter overall. The European Union’s statistics agency said overall construction output in the 17 countries that use the euro rose.

Banks’ emergency overnight borrowing from the European Central Bank fell further Thursday, illustrating the reduced market tensions since the ECB flooded the banking system with liquidity via its first three-year loan operation

Swedish economic growth in 2012 will probably be much lower than the government’s 1.3% forecast last autumn, Swedish Finance Minister Anders Borg told reporters Friday. “The Riksbank and the commercial banks expect growth of around half a percent

Friday February 17, 2012 Economic Reports actual v. forecast

SGD

 

Singaporean Trade Balance 

1.26B

     

7.61B

 

 

EUR

 

German PPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.2%

 

-0.4%

 

 

EUR

 

Current Account 

2.0B

 

2.3B

 

-0.9B

   

GBP

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

-0.2%

 

0.6%

 

 

BRL

 

Brazilian Unemployment Rate 

5.5%

 

5.4%

 

4.7%

 

 

CAD

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.1%

 

-0.5%

 

 

CAD

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.3%

 

-0.6%

 

 

USD

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3%

 

0.1%

 

 

USD

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3%

 

0.0%

 

 

CAD

 

Leading Indicators (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.6%

 

0.7%

   

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

USD/CHF Fundamental Analysis February 20, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

Feb. 20 00:01     GBP       Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     EUR       German Import Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     CHF        Trade Balance

                 08:15    CHF       Employment Level

                23:50     JPY         Trade Balance

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CHF trading at 0.9184 after opening at 0.9193

The USD dropped today as investors sought riskier assets. After more optimism set in due to comments from Merkel and Monti in regards to Greece and the ECB bond swap which investors took as a good sign of progress.

The US economy is expected to continue strengthening, possibly picking up this spring and summer, the Conference Board said Friday as it reported that its index of leading economic indicators grew 0.4% in January, led by the interest-rate spread and manufacturing hours.

The underlying rate of U.S. inflation accelerated by the fastest pace in four months in January, the Labor Department said Friday. The consumer price index increased 0.2%, driven by the first increase in gasoline prices since September. Food prices rose 0.2 % for the second straight month. The core CPI index, excluding food and energy costs, was up 0.2% in January. Economists were expecting the CPI to rise 0.3% in January after remaining flat in the prior month. The core rate was expected to rise 0.2% after rising 0.1% in the previous month.

The government’s consumer price index rose 0.2% in January, just under the 0.3% expected by analysts. The core rate that excludes volatile food and energy prices held at 0.2%, in line with expectations.

Friday February 17, 2012 Economic Reports actual v. forecast

SGD

 

Singaporean Trade Balance 

1.26B

     

7.61B

 

 

EUR

 

German PPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.2%

 

-0.4%

 

 

EUR

 

Current Account 

2.0B

 

2.3B

 

-0.9B

   

GBP

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

-0.2%

 

0.6%

 

 

BRL

 

Brazilian Unemployment Rate 

5.5%

 

5.4%

 

4.7%

 

 

CAD

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.1%

 

-0.5%

 

 

CAD

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.3%

 

-0.6%

 

 

USD

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3%

 

0.1%

 

 

USD

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3%

 

0.0%

 

 

CAD

 

Leading Indicators (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.6%

 

0.7%

   

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis February 20, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

US Markets are closed for the Presidents Day Holiday

Feb. 20 00:01     GBP       Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     EUR       German Import Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     CHF        Trade Balance

                 08:15    CHF       Employment Level

                23:50     JPY         Trade Balance

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is currently at 1.5820 up 0.0020. The USD lost some of its appeal today as investors were more optimistic about a completed agreement with Greece, breathing a sigh of relief, investors to more risky assets. Merkel and Monti signaled there could be a deal in place on Monday and the ECB bond swap seems to be moving forward.

Retail sales in the U.K. rose unexpectedly last month, official data showed on Friday. In a report, U.K. Office for National Statistics said that retail sales rose to 0.9%, from 0.6% in the preceding month .

The US economy is expected to continue strengthening, possibly picking up this spring and summer, the Conference Board said Friday as it reported that its index of leading economic indicators grew 0.4% in January, led by the interest-rate spread and manufacturing hours.

The underlying rate of U.S. inflation accelerated by the fastest pace in four months in January, the Labor Department said Friday. The consumer price index increased 0.2%, driven by the first increase in gasoline prices since September. Food prices rose 0.2 % for the second straight month. The core CPI index, excluding food and energy costs, was up 0.2% in January. Economists were expecting the CPI to rise 0.3% in January after remaining flat in the prior month. The core rate was expected to rise 0.2% after rising 0.1% in the previous month.

The government’s consumer price index rose 0.2% in January, just under the 0.3% expected by analysts. The core rate that excludes volatile food and energy prices held at 0.2%, in line with expectations

Americans’ cost of living rises 0.2% in January, driven higher by the first increase in energy prices in four months, according to Labor Department data.

The USD should continue to be strong against the GBP, as worries about growth and unemployment continue while the UK is implementing their austerity program.

Friday February 17, 2012 Economic Reports actual v. forecast

SGD

 

Singaporean Trade Balance 

1.26B

     

7.61B

 

 

EUR

 

German PPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.2%

 

-0.4%

 

 

EUR

 

Current Account 

2.0B

 

2.3B

 

-0.9B

   

GBP

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

-0.2%

 

0.6%

 

 

BRL

 

Brazilian Unemployment Rate 

5.5%

 

5.4%

 

4.7%

 

 

CAD

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.1%

 

-0.5%

 

 

CAD

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.3%

 

-0.6%

 

 

USD

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3%

 

0.1%

 

 

USD

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3%

 

0.0%

 

 

CAD

 

Leading Indicators (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.6%

 

0.7%

   

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis February 20, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

Feb. 20 00:01     GBP       Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     EUR       German Import Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     CHF        Trade Balance

                 08:15    CHF       Employment Level

                23:50     JPY         Trade Balance

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

Analysis and Recommendations:

The pair EUR/GBP  is currently 0.8321 up 0.0011.

The increased risk appetite is returning to the markets, after the ECB announced a bond swap with Greece and Merkel and Monti noted that there could be a deal as soon as Monday, but we have all heard this before.

Euro-zone construction output edged up for the second month running in December, but that wasn’t enough to stop a contraction in the fourth quarter overall. The European Union’s statistics agency said overall construction output in the 17 countries that use the euro rose.

Banks’ emergency overnight borrowing from the European Central Bank fell further Thursday, illustrating the reduced market tensions since the ECB flooded the banking system with liquidity via its first three-year loan operation

Swedish economic growth in 2012 will probably be much lower than the government’s 1.3% forecast last autumn, Swedish Finance Minister Anders Borg told reporters Friday. “The Riksbank and the commercial banks expect growth of around half a percent.

Retail sales in the U.K. rose unexpectedly last month, official data showed on Friday.

Tensions are still high in the eurozone between Greece, Athens and Brussels.

Friday February 17, 2012 Economic Reports actual v. forecast

SGD

 

Singaporean Trade Balance 

1.26B

     

7.61B

 

 

EUR

 

German PPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.2%

 

-0.4%

 

 

EUR

 

Current Account 

2.0B

 

2.3B

 

-0.9B

   

GBP

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

-0.2%

 

0.6%

 

 

BRL

 

Brazilian Unemployment Rate 

5.5%

 

5.4%

 

4.7%

 

 

CAD

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.1%

 

-0.5%

 

 

CAD

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.3%

 

-0.6%

 

 

USD

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3%

 

0.1%

 

 

USD

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3%

 

0.0%

 

 

CAD

 

Leading Indicators (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.6%

 

0.7%

   

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis February 20, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

US markets are closed for the Presidents Day Holiday

Feb. 20 00:01     GBP       Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     EUR       German Import Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     CHF        Trade Balance

                 08:15    CHF       Employment Level

                23:50     JPY         Trade Balance

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD continues its climb back up today, after falling below 1.30 in yesterdays mid day trading, the euro has been steadily rising. Ending the day at 1.3158 up .0029

The increased risk appetite is returning to the markets, after the ECB announced a bond swap with Greece and Merkel and Monti noted that there could be a deal as soon as Monday, but we have all heard this before.

Euro-zone construction output edged up for the second month running in December, but that wasn’t enough to stop a contraction in the fourth quarter overall. The European Union’s statistics agency said overall construction output in the 17 countries that use the euro rose.

Banks’ emergency overnight borrowing from the European Central Bank fell further Thursday, illustrating the reduced market tensions since the ECB flooded the banking system with liquidity via its first three-year loan operation

Swedish economic growth in 2012 will probably be much lower than the government’s 1.3% forecast last autumn, Swedish Finance Minister Anders Borg told reporters Friday. “The Riksbank and the commercial banks expect growth of around half a percent

The US economy is expected to continue strengthening, possibly picking up this spring and summer, the Conference Board said Friday as it reported that its index of leading economic indicators grew 0.4% in January, led by the interest-rate spread and manufacturing hours.

The underlying rate of U.S. inflation accelerated by the fastest pace in four months in January, the Labor Department said Friday. The consumer price index increased 0.2%, driven by the first increase in gasoline prices since September. Food prices rose 0.2 % for the second straight month. The core CPI index, excluding food and energy costs, was up 0.2% in January. Economists were expecting the CPI to rise 0.3% in January after remaining flat in the prior month. The core rate was expected to rise 0.2% after rising 0.1% in the previous month.

The government’s consumer price index rose 0.2% in January, just under the 0.3% expected by analysts. The core rate that excludes volatile food and energy prices held at 0.2%, in line with expectations

Americans’ cost of living rises 0.2% in January, driven higher by the first increase in energy prices in four months, according to Labor Department data.

On this pair it is probably best to see what the weekend brings. Tensions are still high in the eurozone between Greece, Athens and Brussels.

Friday February 17, 2012 Economic Reports actual v. forecast

SGD

 

Singaporean Trade Balance 

1.26B

     

7.61B

 

 

EUR

 

German PPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.2%

 

-0.4%

 

 

EUR

 

Current Account 

2.0B

 

2.3B

 

-0.9B

   

GBP

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

-0.2%

 

0.6%

 

 

BRL

 

Brazilian Unemployment Rate 

5.5%

 

5.4%

 

4.7%

 

 

CAD

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.1%

 

-0.5%

 

 

CAD

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.3%

 

-0.6%

 

 

USD

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3%

 

0.1%

 

 

USD

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3%

 

0.0%

 

 

CAD

 

Leading Indicators (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.6%

 

0.7%

   

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis February 20, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

US Markets are closed for the Presidents Day Holiday

Feb. 19 21:45     NZD      PPI Input (QoQ)

Producer Price Index (PPI) Input measures the change in the price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers. The index is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation.

21:45     NZD      PPI Output (QoQ)

Producer Price Index (PPI) Output measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers.

 Feb. 20  00:01     GBP       Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     EUR       German Import Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     CHF        Trade Balance

                 08:15    CHF       Employment Level

                23:50     JPY         Trade Balance

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

Analysis and Recommendation: ( close of Asian session )

USD/JPY was trading 79.11 up .18. The pair is higher after strong American economic data and positive sentiment in Europe caused a global rally in equities and risk currencies.

At mid day, the currency was trading at 78.82  US cents, down from 78.93 cents on Thursday.

The number of U.S. workers making new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level in nearly four years. 

The government reporting initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000 last week, the lowest since March 2008.

Other reports had housing starts up 1.5% last month, while wholesale prices climbing 0.1% in January.

Reports just received say that the ECB will exchange their currently existing old Greek bonds for new ones to avoid any legislative action issued by the Greek government to force bondholders to take a settlement.

 Thursday February 16, 2012 Economic Reports forecast vs. actual

 

GBP

 

Nationwide Consumer Confidence 

47

 

40

 

38

 

 

 

AUD

 

Employment Change 

46.3K

 

10.9K

 

-35.6K

   
 

AUD

 

Unemployment Rate 

5.1%

 

5.3%

 

5.2%

   
 

SEK

 

Swedish CPI (YoY) 

1.9%

 

1.9%

 

2.3%

   
 

SEK

 

Swedish Interest Rate Decision 

1.50%

 

1.50%

 

1.75%

   
 

EUR

 

ECB Monthly Report 

             
 

USD

 

Building Permits 

0.68M

 

0.68M

 

0.67M

   
 

USD

 

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.1%

 

0.3%

   
 

CAD

 

Foreign Securities Purchases 

7.38B

 

7.98B

 

14.64B

   
 

USD

 

Housing Starts 

0.70M

 

0.68M

 

0.69M

   
 

CAD

 

Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 

0.60%

 

0.50%

 

1.90%

   
 

USD

 

PPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.3%

 

-0.1%

   
 

USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

348K

 

364K

 

361K

   
 

USD

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3426K

 

3550K

 

3526K

   
 

USD

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 

             
 

MXN

 

Mexican GDP (YoY) 

3.7%

 

3.9%

 

4.5%

   
 

USD

 

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

10.2

 

8.4

 

7.3

   

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis February 20, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

US Markets are closed for the Presidents Day Holiday

Feb. 19 21:45     NZD      PPI Input (QoQ)

Producer Price Index (PPI) Input measures the change in the price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers. The index is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation.

21:45     NZD      PPI Output (QoQ)

Producer Price Index (PPI) Output measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers.

 Feb. 20  00:01     GBP       Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     EUR       German Import Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     CHF        Trade Balance

                 08:15    CHF       Employment Level

                23:50     JPY         Trade Balance

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

Analysis and Recommendation: (Close of  the Asian session )

NZD/USD is trading at 0.8365 up from the opening of 0.8330. The pair moved on worries about Greece and then improved market sentiment.

In the US economic data showed an improvement. The number of U.S. workers making new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level in nearly four years. 

The government reporting initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000 last week, the lowest since March 2008.

Other reports had housing starts up 1.5% last month, while wholesale prices climbing 0.1% in January.

The pair should stay within a tight range but will react to government jobs data due out in the morning in New Zealand.

Thursday February 16, 2012 Economic Reports forecast vs. actual

 

GBP

 

Nationwide Consumer Confidence 

47

 

40

 

38

 

 

 

AUD

 

Employment Change 

46.3K

 

10.9K

 

-35.6K

   
 

AUD

 

Unemployment Rate 

5.1%

 

5.3%

 

5.2%

   
 

SEK

 

Swedish CPI (YoY) 

1.9%

 

1.9%

 

2.3%

   
 

SEK

 

Swedish Interest Rate Decision 

1.50%

 

1.50%

 

1.75%

   
 

EUR

 

ECB Monthly Report 

             
 

USD

 

Building Permits 

0.68M

 

0.68M

 

0.67M

   
 

USD

 

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.1%

 

0.3%

   
 

CAD

 

Foreign Securities Purchases 

7.38B

 

7.98B

 

14.64B

   
 

USD

 

Housing Starts 

0.70M

 

0.68M

 

0.69M

   
 

CAD

 

Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 

0.60%

 

0.50%

 

1.90%

   
 

USD

 

PPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.3%

 

-0.1%

   
 

USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

348K

 

364K

 

361K

   
 

USD

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3426K

 

3550K

 

3526K

   
 

USD

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 

             
 

MXN

 

Mexican GDP (YoY) 

3.7%

 

3.9%

 

4.5%

   
 

USD

 

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

10.2

 

8.4

 

7.3

   

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis February 20, 2012 Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

US Markets are closed for the Presidents Day Holiday

Feb. 19 21:45     NZD      PPI Input (QoQ)

Producer Price Index (PPI) Input measures the change in the price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers. The index is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation.

21:45     NZD      PPI Output (QoQ)

Producer Price Index (PPI) Output measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers.

 Feb. 20  00:01     GBP       Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     EUR       German Import Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     CHF        Trade Balance

                 08:15    CHF       Employment Level

                23:50     JPY         Trade Balance

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

Analysis and Recommendation: ( close of Asian session )

AUD/USD was trading at 1.0779 up .023% The Australian dollar is almost one US cent higher after strong American economic data and positive sentiment in Europe caused a global rally in equities and risk currencies.

At mid day, the Australian dollar was trading at 107.54 US cents, up from 106.68 cents on Thursday.

The number of U.S. workers making new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level in nearly four years. 

The government reporting initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000 last week, the lowest since March 2008.

Other reports had housing starts up 1.5% last month, while wholesale prices climbing 0.1% in January.

Reports just received say that the ECB will exchange their currently existing old Greek bonds for new ones to avoid any legislative action issued by the Greek government to force bondholders to take a settlement.

Thursday February 16, 2012 Economic Reports forecast vs. actual

 

GBP

 

Nationwide Consumer Confidence 

47

 

40

 

38

 

 

 

AUD

 

Employment Change 

46.3K

 

10.9K

 

-35.6K

   
 

AUD

 

Unemployment Rate 

5.1%

 

5.3%

 

5.2%

   
 

SEK

 

Swedish CPI (YoY) 

1.9%

 

1.9%

 

2.3%

   
 

SEK

 

Swedish Interest Rate Decision 

1.50%

 

1.50%

 

1.75%

   
 

EUR

 

ECB Monthly Report 

             
 

USD

 

Building Permits 

0.68M

 

0.68M

 

0.67M

   
 

USD

 

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.1%

 

0.3%

   
 

CAD

 

Foreign Securities Purchases 

7.38B

 

7.98B

 

14.64B

   
 

USD

 

Housing Starts 

0.70M

 

0.68M

 

0.69M

   
 

CAD

 

Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 

0.60%

 

0.50%

 

1.90%

   
 

USD

 

PPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.3%

 

-0.1%

   
 

USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

348K

 

364K

 

361K

   
 

USD

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3426K

 

3550K

 

3526K

   
 

USD

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 

             
 

MXN

 

Mexican GDP (YoY) 

3.7%

 

3.9%

 

4.5%

   
 

USD

 

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

10.2

 

8.4

 

7.3

   

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis February 17, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

 

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas is at 2.568 up .143

Inventory data released today showed a drop in supply for the week of  10-Feb- EIA Natural Gas Storage -127 bcf to 2761 bcf. The price surge, is most likely temporary, inventories are still high with the winter season coming to a close. Price will probably fall in the next few days back to the 2.44 level and over the next month down to the 2.36 support.