Gold Price Prediction – Prices Break Out on Dollar Break Down

Gold prices surged higher on Thursday as the dollar headed south. U.S. Treasury yields moved lower despite a decline in jobless claims. Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell sharply last week, sinking below 500,000 for the first time since the Covid crash.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices moved higher on Thursday breaking out above trend line resistance. Support is now seen near former resistance, a downward sloping trend line near 1,799. Target resistance is seen near the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%, which is seen near 1,828. Additional support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,783 and then the 50-day moving average at 1,745. The 10-day moving average has crossed above the 50-day moving average, meaning that a short-term uptrend is now in place. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs when the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

Claims Fall More than Expected

First-time claims for unemployment insurance fell below 500,000 for the first time since the pandemic crisis. Initial claims totaled 498,000 for the week ended May 1, against the estimate of 527,000. That was down from the previous week’s total of 590,000, which saw a substantial upward revision from the initially reported 553,000. However, continuing claims actually ticked higher last week, rising 37,000 to just below 3.7 million. The four-week moving average for claims edged down to 3.68 million, the lowest since March 28, 2020, just as mass layoffs were beginning to combat the spreading coronavirus.

Gold Forecast – Gold Prices Breaking Out Above $1800 Confirming Next Up leg

Gold is above $1800 and confirmed last week’s outlook for a crucial 40-day cycle low. Prices remain on track for a retest of the $2000 level by July. The next 40-day low is not due until late June, so we see plenty of room for upside near-term.

GOLD FUTURES DAILY: The mid-term gold cycle bottomed on day 37, and prices are just 5-days into a new upswing. With futures clearly above $1800, the uptrends in metals in mines should begin to accelerate.

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Note- The 40-day cycle in gold bottomed on day 37 – slightly early but not surprising given the previous cycle extended to 41-days. On average, we see cyclical turning points about every 39-days.

GOLD MINERS (GDX): After an agonizing 7-month decline, gold miners formed a major bottom in March. In fact, we believe GDX may never return to the $30.00 level again for the remainder of this 10-year bull market.

Currently, miners are attacking the April high ($36.83) and the all-important 200-day MA ($36.99). Once prices push above $37.00, then I think there is a good chance shorts will begin to cover, and we could get the 5%+ bullish recognition day I’ve been expecting. Prices overwhelmingly confirmed last week’s 40-day cycle low, and we are only 4-days into a new upcycle.

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bullish recognition day is when the market suddenly acknowledges a trend change. Traders that were still looking lower get caught on the wrong side and frantically begin to cover. In GDX, this usually looks like a robust 5%+ up day on big volume.

We see tremendous value in high-quality gold producers. These miners are minting money (real money – not Dogecoin) and are incredibly undervalued, in our opinion. Our favorite producer currently is Kirkland Lake.

Silver and platinum are also primed and could explode higher over the coming weeks. Our Premium Metals Portfolio has been accumulating quality miners throughout the pullback and is well-positioned for this next advance.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver to $300

No, I haven’t lost my mind. After all, it’s a metal that’s known for massive rallies.

You see, when silver went trough its 1970s bull market, it started from a low of $1.31 in October 1971. By the time it reached its peak in 1980, silver had run all the way up to $49. That was a 37x return.

If we consider that silver was priced at $4.20 in late 2001, a 37x return would take it to about $155. However, I think this bull market could be an order of magnitude larger for a number of reasons, the main ones being debt, credit and money printing.

As a result, I think silver’s ultimate peak could be $300, and I won’t rule out possibly even higher.

Bullish Silver Fundamentals

Most developed and many developing nations have been in multi-year or even multi-decade deficit scenarios. This now looks to have become a permanent state, at least until we reach some sort of global financial reset.

The Institute of International Finance explains how the COVID-19 pandemic response added $24 trillion to the global debt mountain last year, to reach a new all-time record high of $281 trillion.

And interest rates being maintained at 5,000-year lows will only encourage more debt. Couple that with many countries borrowing to meet interest payments, and central banks soaking up much of that new sovereign debt, and inflation havens like precious metals gain strong appeal.

Silver in particular has the added benefit of 50% of its demand being industrial. With unprecedented economic stimulus programs, many favoring green energy, silver is uniquely positioned to profit. What’s more, according to Metals Focus, silver supply was down 4% in 2020 by 42M ozs. According to the Silver Institute, total supply will rise by 8% this year, though total demand will rise nearly twice as much, by 15%, led by industrial, jewelry and physical demand.

So the fundamental side of silver demand is looking strong, but the technical side is also very bullish.

Bullish Silver Technicals

Let’s consider the gold silver ratio.

As a quick refresher, the gold silver ratio is calculated by simply dividing the spot price for one gold ounce by the spot price of one silver ounce. That’s it. Naturally the higher the ratio, the more silver ounces are needed to buy one gold ounce, and vice versa. The most bullish scenario is when the ratio is falling from a high level, ideally from above 80, and the silver price is rising.

Here’s a chart of the gold silver ratio during the 1970s silver bull market.

To me it’s very intriguing to note how recessions, which are the grey vertical bars, tended to mark troughs and/or peaks in the ratio. What’s also interesting is that when silver reached its peak in 1980, the gold silver ratio ultimately bottomed around the same time at a level near 15, which was below the starting point near 20.

Let’s now move to the current silver bull market which I believe began in 2001. The following chart shows us silver prices since 2000, not adjusted for inflation.

Of course, silver had a tremendous run from $4.20 in 2001 to its 2011 peak at $49. It then corrected until late 2015, then moved sideways until bottoming near $12 last year in March. It had a tremendous move up to $30 within just 5 months and has been mostly consolidating since.

Now let’s examine the gold silver ratio action since 2001.

Again we see peaks and troughs tend to occur (though not exclusively) around recessions (grey bars). At silver’s peak in 2011, the ratio bottomed near 33. It then rose almost constantly up to its all-time peak last March at 125, then fell dramatically to its current level around 67, as silver started to significantly outpace gold. Consider that we know from history silver always outperforms gold in precious metals bull markets. So the current action is particularly exciting for silver.

Silver Targets

But what does it all mean for how high the silver price can go? Of course, no one knows for sure. But there are some indicators worth examining for clues and suggestions.

I believe the ratio will ultimately reach a low near 15. And given the inflationary path we’re on, I think gold could peak at $5,000 per ounce. That’s just 2.5 times last August’s peak near $2,000. In fact, I think there’s even a decent chance gold could reach $10,000, which is just 5 times last August’s peak. But if we stick with $5,000, and an ultimate bottom in the gold silver ratio of 15, we get ($5,000/15) $333 per ounce of silver.

Let’s look at silver price targets from another angle: inflation.

If we consider inflation-adjusted silver prices going back to 1970, we see that the peak reached in 1980 was actually $120/ounce in today’s dollars, and that’s using government sanctioned inflation statistics, which tend to be well below what we experience in everyday life.

Considering the old way of calculating inflation, which the U.S. abandoned decades ago and I reference below from Shadowstats.com, a realistic inflation rate would have averaged 7% – 8% since 1980 (triple official inflation), which would mean an equivalent silver price of $240-$360 dollars at the 1980 peak.

My gold silver ratio target for silver of $333 is comfortably within the range of $240-$360. If we take the mid-way point between $240 and $360, we get $300. I think that’s as good an estimate as any of where silver can peak in its current bull market.

On this basis, the silver price would need to be up by more than 10x from current levels to reach its ultimate high. Imagine for a moment, if silver were to soar tenfold from here, what the silver producers’ and silver explorers’ share prices would do. It’s not difficult to expect simply spectacular returns. Which is exactly why it’s so attractive to allocate to this space, while being diversified across several stocks, as it’s impossible to know which will do best. Still, odds are very good that if silver goes up by a factor of 10, the average silver stock should easily double that, and be up by a factor of 20, while the most successful juniors could gain 50x or more. That would simply be a repeat of previous bull markets.

Larger silver producers and royalty companies should be seen as core positions to be held for the long term. The more junior explorers should be treated more cautiously as speculations, on which to take profits when they materialize. Selling half of one’s position on a double would be especially sensible.

In any case, I believe it remains early days for silver and silver stocks. I expect to see much higher prices ahead in the metal and the equities. And in my view the current bout of weakness is an opportunity to buy or add to positions in this space. Remember, at $26 silver is still nearly 50% below its all-time nominal high, while gold is just 10% below its all-time nominal high. Silver is clearly the better relative bargain.

In the Silver Stock Investor newsletter, I provide my outlook on which silver stocks have the best prospects as this bull market progresses. Many offer 5x to 10x return potential in just the next few years, especially as silver heats up.

I think silver is currently at or very close to its bottom, but that its ultimate peak could well be in the $300 range.

Either way, silver is headed much, much higher.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Break 200 Day EMA

Gold markets have broken higher during the course of the trading session on Thursday as we have cleared the 200 day EMA and the $1800 level. At this point, the market is likely to continue going higher, perhaps reaching towards the $1850 level, and then after that the $1950 level. This of course is a market that has recently formed a bit of a “double bottom”, and that suggests that it has much further to go. It is interesting, because gold has disappeared from the inflation argument until recently, but now it appears that the traders finally starting to kick in.

Gold Price Predictions Video 07.05.21

To the downside, I see the 50 day EMA as offering support, and most certainly the $1750 level will as well. It is not until we break down below there that I would be concerned, but after the action that we have seen during the day on Thursday, it is very likely that the buyers will continue to push to the upside. The size of the candlestick is somewhat impressive, and therefore it looks like there is serious conviction in this market. If the US dollar continues to fall, that should continue to lift gold in general, and therefore I think that we have a “buy on the dips” type of mentality from short-term traders. Ultimately, this will be a very noisy move to the upside, but it certainly looks as if we have made major changes in attitude during the day, as we have been building up pressure for some time. I have no interest in shorting this market until we close below the $1750 level, something that does not look as likely now.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold & Silver Begin New Advancing Cycle Phase

Before going into detail regarding my latest research and cycle phases, I want you to think of these cycle phases as Advancing and Declining cycle trends.  They act as a “build-up of trend”, then an “unwinding of trend”.  In each instance, trends can be either Bullish, Bearish, or Neutral in nature.  My research team and I believe a new Bullish Cycle Phase has begun in Gold and Silver.  If our research is correct, the next Advancing Cycle Phase may prompt a broad rally in Gold and Silver.

Understanding Cycle Phase Analysis & Trends in Metals

We interpret these cycle phases as unique trend segments involved in a broader cycle scope.  For example, over a longer-term rally, we may see many Bullish Advancing and Declining cycle phases take place – one after another.  Conversely, we may see many Bearish cycle phases take place in an extended downtrend.  Another type of cycle phase can also exist, the Reversal Cycle Phase – where price Advances in one direction and Declines in the opposite direction.  This type of Rotation Cycle Phase exists as the current completed Cycle on the Gold chart, below.

As we are nearing the end of the current Declining Cycle Phase as seen in the chart below, we will soon begin the new Advancing Cycle Phase in Gold.  Gold’s Reversal Cycle Phase that took place between December 21, 2020, and May 10, 2021, will likely close higher than the midpoint (or Apex) of the total Cycle Phase.  This suggests a new bullish price trend has taken over and the price is more likely to move higher in the next Advancing Cycle Phase. If this trend continues, then the price will continue to rally higher in the Declining Cycle Phase as well – as we saw in the first Cycle Phase: between March 16, 2020, and August 3, 2020.

Gold & Silver Phase Tables – Will Price Continue A New Bullish Cycle Phase?

To help explain our Cycle research, we’ve put together these tables to detail the Cycle Phases and price logic we use to interpret each Advancing and Declining phase.  Each table entry consists of an Advancing, then Declining Cycle Phase.  Combined, they make up a complete Cycle Phase.  We are measuring price at the midpoint (Apex) of the Cycle Phase to determine if any Advancing or Declining Cycle Phase is Bullish or Bearish in trend.  If both Advancing and Declining Cycle Phases show the same trend direction, we define that completed Cycle Phase as Bullish or Bearish.  If they differ in trend types, we define that completed Cycle Phase as a Reversal Phase.

Gold has been in a downtrend recently while Silver has continued to stay somewhat bullish in a sideways price trend.  You can see from the tables below, Gold recently completed a Reversal Cycle Phase (ending with a Bullish Declining Phase) while Silver has continued to exhibit Bullish Cycle Phases since March 9, 2020.

Both Gold and Silver ended their last completed Cycle Phases recently.  Gold will end the last completed Cycle Phase on May 10, 2021.  Silver ended its last completed Cycle Phase on April 12, 2021. The next Advancing Cycle Phase for both Gold and Silver will begin this week and next week – and will continue until July 19, 2021.  After that, the Declining Cycle Phase will begin and last until late September, for Gold, and late October for Silver.

If our research is correct, we may see extended bullish trending over the next 6+ months in both Gold and Silver.

Silver Cycle Phases Continue To Show Stronger Bullish Trending

The following Silver Weekly Chart highlights the Cycle Phases and highlights the price trends for each Advancing and Declining Cycle Phase.  While Gold has experienced an extended Bearish Cycle Phase over the past 5+ months, Silver has continued to show stronger bullish price Cycle Phases and continues to attempt higher closing price levels at the end of each Cycle Phase.  We believe this suggests Silver is likely to see some explosive upside price trending when the $28.42 level (the higher YELLOW line) is breached.  This level represents historical price resistance for Silver.  Once this level is breached, we believe Silver will begin to advance higher very quickly.

Remember, we have until July 19, 2021, before the first Advancing Cycle Phase in Silver ends.  This Advancing Phase may prompt a move above the $28.42 level and may attempt to rally above $30.00 as we have drawn on the chart (below). If the Declining Cycle Phase continues this bullish trend, we may see Silver trading above $32.00 ~ $33.00 before Halloween 2021.  This would represent a +26.5% rally in Silver from the last completed Cycle Phase price level.

In closing, we want to suggest that a rally as we are proposing in Gold and Silver will also present a renewed risk factor for the US and global markets (potentially). In the past, we have seen precious metals rally while the US stock market rallies.  It is not uncommon for precious metals to begin to move higher while the US stock market continues to move higher.  This type of price activity simply suggests that global traders/investors are moving capital into Precious Metals as the US stock market climbs a strengthening “wall of worry”.  This type of price action happened from 2004 to 2009 – prior to the Credit Crisis/Housing Crisis.

As we’ve been suggesting for many months, the next few years are going to be full of incredible opportunities for traders and investors. Smart traders will quickly identify these phases of the market and will understand how to position themselves to take advantage of this next phase. You can learn more about how I identify and trade Gold, Silver, and the markets by watching my FREE step-by-step guide to finding and trading the best sectors.

For those who believe in the power of trading on relative strength, market cycles, and momentum but don’t have the time to do the research every day then my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service does all the work for you with daily pre-market reports, proprietary research, and trade alerts. More frequent or experienced traders have been killing it trading options, ETFs, and stocks using my BAN Hotlist ranking the hottest ETFs, which is updated daily for my premium subscribers. Sign up today!

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Happy Trading!

Chris Vermeulen
Founder & Chief Market Strategist
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Silver Price Daily Forecast – Resistance At $27.50 In Sight

Silver Video 06.05.21.

Weak Dollar Provides Support To Silver

Silver gained upside momentum and managed to get above the resistance at $27.00 while the U.S. dollar remained under pressure against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index failed to settle above the resistance at the 20 EMA at 91.30 and is testing the support at the 91 level. In case the U.S. Dollar Index declines below this level, it will move towards the support at 90.70 which will be bullish for silver and gold price today. Weaker dollar is bullish for precious metals as it makes them cheaper for buyers who have other currencies.

Gold is currently testing the resistance at the $1800 level. In case gold manages to settle above this level, it will head towards the resistance at $1820 which will be bullish for silver.

Gold/silver ratio managed to get below the 67 level and is trying to settle below 66.50. If gold/silver ratio declines below this level, it will move towards the 66 level which will be bullish for silver.

Technical Analysis

silver may 6 2021

Silver managed to get above the resistance at $27.00 and is trying to gain additional upside momentum. If silver settles above this level, it will move towards the resistance at $27.50. RSI remains in the moderate territory, and there is plenty of room to gain additional upside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

A successful test of the resistance at $27.50 will push silver towards the next resistance level at $27.75. If silver gets above the resistance at $27.75, it will head towards the next resistance which is located at $28.30.

On the support side, a move below the $27 level will push silver towards the support at $26.65. In case silver declines below this level, it will head towards the support at $26.30.

A successful test of the support at $26.30 will push silver towards the support which is located at the 20 EMA at $26.15. In case silver manages to settle below this level, it will head towards the next support at the 50 EMA at $25.95.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

American Indices Moving in Opposite Directions

American Indices are currently moving in opposite directions. The tech-heavy NASDAQ index is going down, aiming for the long-term up trendline while the old-school Dow Jones flirts with all-time highs after the price escaped from the pennant formation.

The German Dax is trading inside a flag formation, which is promoting a long-term breakout to the upside.

Gold is aiming higher after a successful bounce from the 1760 USD/oz support.

The USDCAD broke the lower line of the channel down formation, which should be considered an extreme weakness.

The AUDCHF tested the lower line of the symmetric triangle pattern. A breakout to the downside is very probable.

The ZARJPY shot higher after a false bearish breakout from the Head and Shoulders formation.

The EURPLN is aiming higher after a very handsome bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart.

The USDHUF dropped like a rock after the price created a shooting star on the daily chart, which bounced from a combination of dynamic and horizontal resistances.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

Lumber and Copper Are Surging. Will Gold Join the Party?

The rise in lumber prices can be seen in the chart below:

What a surge! It happened because of the limited supply and strong demand for new houses. But it’s not just lumber. Many raw commodities are rallying too. The price of copper, for example, has just approached its record height (from February 2011), as the recovery of the global economy boosted demand. Just take a look at the price below.

Indeed, the trend is up. Commodity prices are on the rise as a whole as the chart below clearly shows. Even Warren Buffet warned investors against a “red hot” recovery, saying that his portfolio companies were “seeing very substantial inflation” amid shortages of raw materials.

Of course, commodity price inflation and consumer price inflation are quite different phenomena, as consumers don’t buy lumber or copper directly but only finished products made from these materials. However, at least part of this producer price inflation may translate into higher consumer prices, as producers’ ability to pass higher costs on consumers has recently increased – people have a large holding of cash and are willing to spend it.

Implications for Gold

What do rallying commodity prices imply for the precious metals? Well, rising commodity prices signal higher inflation, which should increase the demand for gold as an inflation hedge . Of course, there might be some supply disruptions and bottlenecks in a few commodities. However, the widespread character and the extent of the increase in prices suggest that monetary policy is to blame here and that inflation won’t be just transitory as the Fed claims.

What’s more, the commodity boom is usually a good time for precious metals . As the chart below shows, there is a strong positive correlation between the broad commodity index and the precious metals index.

There was a big divergence during the pandemic when commodities plunged, while gold at the same time shined brightly as a safe-haven asset . So, the current lackluster performance of the yellow metal is perfectly understandable during the economic recovery.

Indeed, the rebound in gold has been weak, and gold hasn’t even crossed $1,800 yet, although it was close this week, as the chart below shows.

There was a rally on Monday (May 3) amid a retreat in the US dollar, but we were back in the doldrums on Tuesday, amid Yellen’s remarks about higher bond yields . She said that interest rates could rise to prevent the economy from overheating:

It may be that interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make sure that our economy doesn’t overheat, even though the additional spending is relatively small relative to the size of the economy

However, Yellen clarified her statements later, explaining that she was not recommending or predicting that the Fed should hike interest rates. Additionally, several FOMC members made their speeches, presenting the dovish view on the Fed’s monetary policy . For example, Richard Clarida, Fed Vice Chair, said that the economy was still a long way from the Fed’s goals and that the US central bank wasn’t thinking about reducing its quantitative easing program .

Anyway, the price of gold has been trading sideways recently as it couldn’t break out of the $1,700-$1,800 price range. This inability can be frustrating, but the inflationary pressure could help the yellow metal to free itself from the shackles. The bull market in gold started in 2019, well ahead of the commodities. Now, there is a correction , but gold may join the party later . It’s important to remember that reflation has two phases: the growth phase when raw materials outperform gold and the inflation phase when gold catches up with the commodities. So, we may have to wait for a breakout a little longer, but once we get it, new investors may flow into the market, strengthening the upward move.

If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD
Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

 

Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Underpinned by Dovish Fed Member Comments, Capped by Strong Data

Gold futures are trading higher on Thursday, but pulling back from its high after the release of a better-than-expected government report. Earlier in the session, gold prices rose as the U.S. Dollar retreated from two-week highs and U.S. Treasury yields fell, with traders focusing on economic data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s strategy on monetary support going forward.

At 13:08 GMT, June Comex gold futures are trading $1792.00, up $7.70 or +0.43%.

Thin market conditions ahead of Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report have contributed to this week’s volatile price action. Dovish comments from Federal Reserve members have helped underpin prices, while stronger-than-expected economic data has helped put a lid on gains.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, a noted dove, also contributed to the volatility with two-sided comments.

Fed’s Rosengren Says It Is Premature to Talk About Tapering

Helping to support gold prices on Thursday are comments from Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren.

On Wednesday, Rosengren said inflation will be temporarily distorted this spring as the U.S. economy works through imbalances caused by the pandemic but the pressures should be short-lived and should not lead to a pullback in monetary policy.

“Despite the ebbs and flows of the data, inflation is expected to remain close to 2 percent over the forecast horizon,” Rosengren said during a virtual event organized by Boston College. “This does seem to me to be the most likely outcome, which should allow monetary policymakers to be patient in removing accommodation.”

For now, Rosengren said “significant slack remains in the economy” and made it clear it is too soon to start talking about reducing the Fed’s asset purchases.

“We need to have a substantial improvement for us to begin tapering. It is quite possible that we’ll see those conditions as we get to the latter half of the year,” Rosengren said. “But right now what we have is one really strong employment report, one quarterly strong GDP report. And so I think it’s premature right now to focus on the tapering.”

Daily Outlook

After an earlier surge, gold prices appear to be consolidating as investors position themselves ahead of Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. This report could set the tone of the market for the next month.

On Wednesday, ADP reported strong private sector numbers. On Thursday, initial claims for unemployment benefits fell sharply last week to 498,000, in another sign the labor market is getting closer to pre-pandemic levels.

There is nothing bullish per se in the news, but investors appear unwilling to give up until there is definitive proof that the Fed is getting ready to begin tapering its bond purchases.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Daily Gold News: Thursday, May 6 – Gold Bouncing Back and Forth

The gold futures contract gained 0.47% on Wednesday, as it extended its short-term consolidation. In early April the market has bounced from the support level marked by March 8 local low of $1,663.30. The yellow metal’s price was the lowest since last year’s June. Today gold is trading closer to the recent local highs, as we can see on the daily chart (the chart includes today’s intraday data):

Gold is 0.3% higher this morning, as it is trading closer to $1,800 price level. What about the other precious metals? Silver is 1.0% higher, platinum is 0.8% higher and palladium is 0.8% lower today. So precious metals are higher this morning.

Yesterday’s ADP Non-Farm Employment Change release has been worse than expected at +742,000. The ISM Services PMI has also been worse than expected at 62.7. Today we will get the Unemployment Claims release, among others.

The markets will be waiting for tomorrow’s monthly jobs data release.

Where would the price of gold go following Friday’s NFP release? We’ve compiled the data since September of 2018, a 32-month-long period of time that contains of thirty two NFP releases. The first chart shows price paths 5 days before and 10 days after the NFP release. The last three cases are marked with dashed lines. Gold gained 1.92% in April and it gained 2.54% in March.

The following chart shows the average gold price path before and after the NFP releases for the past 32 months. The market was usually advancing ahead of the release day and closing 0.49% higher on the 10th day after the NFP release.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days:

Thursday, May 6

  • 7:30 a.m. U.S. – Challenger Job Cuts y/y
  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Unemployment Claims, Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity q/q, Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q
  • 1:00 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Bostic Speech

Friday, May 7

  • 6:00 a.m. Eurozone – ECB President Lagarde Speech
  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings m/m
  • 8:30 a.m. Canada – Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
  • 10:00 U.S. – Final Wholesale Inventories m/m
  • 10:00 a.m. Canada – Ivey PMI

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Selection Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

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Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

Moneta Markets Launch Revamped Affiliate Partner Program!

As Moneta Markets continue to disrupt the FX and CFD industry, the revamped Partnership model rewards Affiliates with up to $1200 for deposits of $1000 or more. With three CPA plans to choose from, as well as an exclusive ‘Platinum’ model for their premium affiliate partners, Moneta Markets’ new program looks to set to change the landscape of the Forex affiliate industry.

When asked about the revamped CPA structure, Moneta Markets’ founder David Bily said that to stand out in an already crowded industry, you need to constantly evolve and innovate based on observations and of course, ongoing feedback from clients and partners alike.

Moneta Markets’ founder David Bily

“We created our new CPA model with two simple goals, to have tailored plans that better suit the type of traffic that partners choose to target, and to reward our most successful affiliates. By offering three CPA plans, Gold, Silver and Bronze, we can cater to affiliates of all types. No other broker in the industry offers this level of flexibility. And, with up to $1200 CPA on offer for deposits of $1000 or more, that makes us one of the highest paying forex brokers for affiliates.

“On top of the multiple payment structures, we have also created a new “Platinum” plan for affiliates who are bringing in high-quality traffic on a consistent basis that will reward them even more. On top of their CPA payments, Platinum partners will receive ongoing rebates on Forex in perpetuity, bi-weekly payouts, prepayments as well as a range of other exclusive benefits. We value the work of our partners, and it is important that we continue to build on these relationships and reward our affiliates accordingly.

“Our software providers and technology partners have also had a vital role in helping us to create a fully integrated system that streamlines each individual component of our Affiliate Partner program. By working closely with the team at Panda and Praxis, we have been able to create a system that allows fast client onboarding and account funding. And, by integrating the CellXpert platform with the Moneta Markets Client Portal and WebTrader platform, affiliates can access transparent reporting of payouts and rebates, powerful tracking, optimization and a comprehensive range of multilingual marketing materials that are optimised to convert, and to help partners reach traffic on a global scale. And, in an environment where we are seeing significantly more mobile traffic, we have integrated AppsFlyer into our AppTrader mobile platform for increased lead attribution, offering affiliates additional avenues to improve their earnings.”

In addition to the launch of their Affiliate program, Moneta Markets has also significantly reduced spreads across all instruments, a feature that affiliates are now leveraging when marketing the brand.

“We want to make it so that our partners can promote a superior product to our competitors, and with that in mind we are constantly looking to improve our offering. Recently, we have introduced new account types STP, True ECN and Moneta Prime, all of which offer some of the lowest spreads in the industry across not only Forex pairs, but all our Indices and Commodity products. Many brokers claim to have low spreads, but very few can live up to that promise. I can say with confidence that Moneta Markets’ spreads are much lower than our direct competitors, with the majors currency pairs and Indices averaging 0.0 pips.”

With the addition of multiple account types as well as offering multiple trading platforms to choose from, MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5, and their next-gen WebTrader platform, Moneta Markets continues to appeal to an expanding audience, living up to its reputation as not only the preferred partner for Affiliates, but as the broker to keep an eye on throughout 2021! To find out more about the broker’s first of its kind CPA Affiliate program, click here.

Gold Bugs Close in on $1,800 Mark, but Face Uphill Task Ahead

At the time of drafting this report, gold bugs seem to be fairly in control with gold futures nearing $1,800 per ounce despite recent data revealing the greenback’s value is gaining strength day by day.

Gold bulls are riding the bandwagon high on reports new cases of COVID-19 infection has broken above 400,000 in the world’s second most populated country (India), arbitrarily gave gold bugs the firepower to challenge the $1,800 price levels.

The yellow metal earlier reverses the pullback from its intraday high while picking up bids at $1,794 per ounce, up 0.58% for the day, as the precious metal rises for the second consecutive day with US Treasury yields and the greenback weak responses to the latest challenges in growing risk sentiments across the market spectrum.

At press time, the global crypto market value stood at $2.35 trillion, posting a 5.16% increase over the last day with Ethereum and most altcoins trading close to record high, which wasn’t enough to deter growing demand for gold.

However, gold bulls face an uphill task, with recent reports revealing the world’s most powerful economy was on the path to full recovery with the U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change rising to 742,000 in April.

Such growth was the biggest in seven months as American businesses increased their production capacity in response to high economic demand in play boost by stimulus support, suggest gold bugs might unlikely have enough gas to stay afloat in the coming weeks.

In spite of the soaring dollar and the appetite for more risk, gold bugs are hopeful to attack the $1,800 threshold one more time.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

U.S Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen Speaks – Part Two

To paraphrase she said that interest rates in the United States may need to rise to prevent the economy from overheating. Yellen said that the overheating is a direct result of the current administration’s economic investment programs become enacted.

“It may be that interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make sure that our economy doesn’t overheat, even though the additional spending is relatively small relative to the size of the economy,” she said in taped remarks to a virtual event put on by The Atlantic. “It could cause some very modest increases in interest rates to get that reallocation, but these are investments our economy needs to be competitive and to be productive (and) I think that our economy will grow faster because of them.”

She explained the massive amount of fiscal stimulus with an outlay of $4 trillion in 2020, and $1.9 trillion to date this year, and when coupled with President Joe Biden’s proposed “American Jobs Plan” could add even more debt to the ballooning national debt the currently exists. Although the administration has explained that there would be no cost to middle-class Americans, many advocates of his initiative to leave that the cost cannot be covered by raising taxes on corporations and the wealthiest alone. In fact, it is believed that it would further add to our national debt which is now at record levels.

That caused gold and silver pricing to sustain a large drawdown in trading yesterday and today. Yellen clarified her remarks when she spoke at the Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council summit. She said that she was not recommending or predicting that the Federal Reserve should raise rates. Furthermore, she said that she does not see a sustained problem for the economy as it bounces back from Covid-19 and therefore does not anticipate inflation being a problem.

On a technical basis the facts remain that gold has been mired in an extremely narrow range with current support at the 21-day exponential moving average, and resistance currently at a harmonic (a harmonic is when to different technical studies occur at the same price point) which occurs at the 100-day moving average currently fixed at $1797.10 and $1800 which is a key psychological level. Gold has traded in this to find a narrow range over the last 15 trading days and continues to move sideways.

Today’s statements by Janet Yellen in attempts to clarify her statements made yesterday did move gold higher by approximately $10 it is currently fixed in Australia up $2.60 at $1786.90. This is still shy by $13 of major resistance at $1800. All things being equal it will take a dramatic fundamental shift, or a dramatic change in market sentiment to move gold pricing above or below its defined range.

Chart_21-05-05_12gold May 5

For more information on our service, simply use this link.

Wishing you, as always, good trading and good health,

Gary Wagner

 

Gold Price Prediction – Prices Consolidate Following ADP Payrolls

Gold prices edged lower on Wednesday as the dollar crept higher. U.S. Treasury yields moved lower following a slightly softer than expected ADP private payroll report. U.S. ISM services were also slightly weaker than expected but remained very robust. Prices are moving sideways and the upward trend rebounded that started in April is beginning to show that it is tired.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices moved higher on Wednesday but remained rangebound. Target resistance is seen near the April highs at 1,797 and then the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%, which is seen near 1,828. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,780 and then the 50-day moving average at 1,745. The 10-day moving average has crossed above the 50-day moving average which means that a short-term uptrend is now in place. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium-term momentum is poised to turn negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index is above to generate a crossover sell signal. The MACD histogram is printing in positive territory but also poised to generate a crossover sell signal.

Private Payrolls Rise

Private job growth accelerated in April. ADP reported that U.S. companies added 742,000 workers for April, slightly less than the  800,000 forecasts. Leisure and hospitality led growth with 237,000 new positions. Trade, transportation and utilities also was a major contributor, adding 155,000 new jobs. Services typically account for the bulk of job growth, and that was true again in April as the sector added 636,000 positions. Companies with 500 or more employees led with 277,000, followed by small businesses with fewer than 50 employees at 235,000 and medium-sized firms with 230,000.

Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Continue to Find Choppy Action

Gold markets initially pulled back during the trading session on Wednesday to reach down towards the 50 day EMA, before bouncing a bit and forming a bit of a hammer. At this point, we are still stuck between the 50 day EMA and the 200 day EMA indicators, so therefore not much has changed over the last couple of days. We are simply consolidating, trying to figure out where our next move is.

Gold Price Predictions Video 06.05.21

If we can break above the $1800 level, then it is likely that we go looking towards the $1850 level, followed by the $1950 level. This obviously would be helped by a weakening US dollar, and with the jobs report coming out on Friday that could end up being the catalyst. As of late, gold markets have been paying special attention to the bond market, but the bond market yields have calmed down. The question now is whether or not the market has stabilized in that area, or are we getting ready to see more volatility?

If we were to break down below the $1750 level, then it is likely that we go looking towards the double bottom underneath. The double bottom underneath of course is an area that should be supportive so if we get down below there it is likely that we would break down towards the $1500 level. That would be a very negative move, and if we break the double bottom, I would be more than willing to start shorting this market. Until then, I think we simply go back and forth doing nothing.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Will Gold Break Back Above $1800 Before Silver Breaks $27?

The major macro event that traders will be closely watching this week is Friday’s U.S Employment Report, which is the most highly anticipated economic report of every month. It’s also a gauge of economic performance and a key measure of inflation tracked by the Federal Reserve.

So far this year, the Fed has maintained their stance to allow inflation to run hotter than its traditional 2% goal as it pursues full and inclusive employment.

The major risk of this approach is if the Fed gets too fixated on concrete evidence of a solid labour market recovery, it could end up behind the inflation curve.

If you’re wondering just how high inflation could get, you only have to take a look at what is happening across the rest of the commodity markets.

Copper, Palladium, Iron Ore and Lumber prices have skyrocketed to all-time record highs in recent weeks. In total 23 Commodities ranging from the metals, energies to soft commodities have tallied up double to triple digit gains within the in the past year.

All of this suggests one thing – it’s only a matter of time before Gold eventually catches up with the rest of the commodities complex.

Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:

NASDAQ: The Leaders Lead. Or Attempt to, and Fail.

The tech stocks were the strongest part of the stock market in the previous year or so, and for a good reason. Due to the lockdown-induced surge in remote work, the need for all sorts of tech improvements (in both: software and hardware) soared. So, it’s no wonder that the NASDAQ was the strongest part of the market. It was the sole leader.

Now, there’s a rule in every market that leaders… Well, lead. This makes perfect sense, no surprise yet. But, there’s a point after which the leaders stop leading and stocks that are relatively weak or have less favorable fundamentals are catching up, eventually rallying more than the leaders. Why would this be the case? Because those who understand the markets and what’s going on are already invested, and those who are neither as knowledgeable nor experienced – the investment public – enter the market.

The investment public makes purchases often without any regard to fundamentals (or technicals) – they buy because a given asset seems cheap compared to other assets. And what would be cheap in the final part of the upswing – after the market professionals have already established their positions in well-positioned assets? The poorly positioned assets. The stocks/markets that were – for a good reason – neglected previously. So, they start buying those, and the laggards become the new leaders.

The NASDAQ was the leader that started to underperform while other stocks soared. The last few months were as clear as it gets in terms of emphasizing that. While the S&P 500 Index soared to new all-time highs, the only thing that the tech stocks managed to do was to attempt to break to new highs.

Attempt.

And fail.

Last week’s shooting-star-shaped weekly reversal was bearish on its own, but considering that it was also a failure to break to new highs, the bearish fire got gasoline poured over it.

Now, this could have been accidental, and it was prudent to wait for another decline before stating that the top in the stock market is most likely in…

Until we saw yesterday’s slide. The NASDAQ is already over 2% lower this week, and it’s only after two sessions.

Why is this important? Because if we have indeed seen a major top on the stock market , then it tells us a lot about the next moves on the precious metals market. And – in particular – about mining stocks.

The history might not repeat itself, but it does rhyme, and those who insist on ignoring it are doomed to repeat it.

And there’s practically only one situation from more than the past four decades that is similar to what we see right now.

It’s the early 2000s when the tech stock bubble burst. It’s practically the only time when the tech stocks were after a similarly huge rally. It’s also the only time when the weekly MACD soared to so high levels (we already saw the critical sell signal from it). It’s also the only comparable case with regard to the breakout above the rising blue trend channel. The previous move above it was immediately followed by a pullback to the 200-week moving average, and then the final – most volatile – part of the rally started. It ended on significant volume when the MACD flashed the sell signal. Again, we’re already after this point.

The recent attempt to break to new highs that failed seems to have been the final cherry on the bearish cake.

Why should I – the precious metals investor, care?

Because of what happened in the XAU Index (a proxy for gold stocks and silver stocks ) shortly after the tech stock bubble burst last time.

What happened was that the mining stocks declined for about three months after the NASDAQ topped, and then they formed their final bottom that started the truly epic rally. And just like it was the case over 20 years ago, mining stocks topped several months before the tech stocks.

Mistaking the current situation for the true bottom is something that is likely to make a huge difference in one’s bottom line. After all, the ability to buy something about twice as cheap is practically equal to selling the same thing at twice the price. Or it’s like making money on the same epic upswing twice instead of “just” once.

And why am I writing about “half” and “twice”? Because… I’m being slightly conservative, and I assume that the history is about to rhyme once again as it very often does (despite seemingly different circumstances in the world). The XAU Index declined from its 1999 high of 92.72 to 41.61 – it erased 55.12% of its price.

The most recent medium-term high in the GDX ETF (another proxy for mining stocks) was at about $45. Half of that is $22.5, so a move to this level would be quite in tune with what we saw recently.

And the thing is that based on this week’s slide in the NASDAQ that followed the weekly reversal and the invalidation, it seems that this slide lower has already begun.

Wait, you said something about three months?

Yes, that’s approximately how long we had to wait for the final buying opportunity in the mining stocks to present itself based on the stock market top.

The reason is that after the 1929 top, gold miners declined for about three months after the general stock market started to slide. We also saw some confirmations of this theory based on the analogy to 2008.

All in all, the precious metals sector would be likely to bottom about three months after the general stock market tops. If the last week’s highs in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ were the final highs, then we might expect the precious metals sector to bottom in the middle of the year – in late July or in August.

Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
Founder, Editor-in-chief
Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

* * * * *

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski’s, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Gold Edges Lower after Strong ADP Employment Data

Gold futures are trading nearly flat shortly before the release of a series of key U.S. economic reports on Wednesday that could dictate the tone of the market for the rest of the session. Bullish data could drive U.S. Treasury yields higher on the notion that it would encourage the Federal Reserve to start discussing tapering its bond purchases.

At 12:00 GMT, June Comex gold futures are trading $1777.30, up $1.30 or +0.07%.

Capping prices are hawkish comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday. Yellen said rate hikes may be needed to stop the economy from overheating as President Joe Biden’s spending plans boost growth, the comment drove prices down from a two-month high.

Gold prices began to stabilize after Yellen downplayed her earlier comments, saying she sees no inflation problem brewing.

US Economic Reports

April’s ADP Employment Change data, which tracks the growth of private payrolls, is due to be published at 12:15 GMT on Wednesday.

Economists polled by Dow Jones are expecting 800,000 private jobs added in April, compared to the 517,000 in March, according to the 517,000 in March, according to ADP. These number come ahead of Friday’s closely-watched jobs report.

The report showed the U.S. added 742,000 private payrolls in April. Gold prices remained flat after the news.

The final Markit purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for April is set to be released at 13:45 GMT, followed by the ISM non-manufacturing PMI for last month at 14:00 GMT.

Daily Forecast

If the economic reports don’t move gold prices then comments from Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans could.

A month ago, Evans said that while he’s become much more positive about the economic outlook, he continues to expect the U.S. central bank will need to keep policy easy for some time in order to boost inflation to healthier levels.

“Some even higher rates of inflation are needed to get inflation to average 2 percent and to solidify inflation expectations about that number” Evans said. “So, I see the need for continued accommodative monetary policy to reach our goals.”

Gold traders will be eyeing Evans to see if he maintains his stance, or if he has turned a little hawkish. If Evans sees the need for the Fed to become less-accommodative then yields could rise and gold prices fall.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Daily Gold News: Wednesday, May 5 – Gold Remains Within a Consolidation

In early April the market has bounced from the support level marked by March 8 local low of $1,663.30. The yellow metal’s price was the lowest since last year’s June. Today gold is trading along yesterday’s closing price, as we can see on the daily chart (the chart includes today’s intraday data):

Gold is 0.1% lower this morning, as it is trading within a short-term consolidation. What about the other precious metals? Silver is 0.6% lower, platinum is 1.1% lower and palladium is 0.4% higher today. So precious metals are mixed this morning.

Yesterday’s U.S. Factory Orders release has been slightly worse than expected at +1.1%. Today we will get the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change release at 8:15 a.m., among others.

The markets will be waiting for Friday’s U.S. monthly jobs data release.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days:

Wednesday, May 5

  • 8:15 a.m. U.S. – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
  • 9:30 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Evans Speech
  • 9:45 a.m. U.S. – Final Services PMI
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – ISM Services PMI
  • 3:00 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Evans Speech
  • 6:30 p.m. Canada – BOC Governor Macklem Speech
  • Tentative, Eurozone – EU Economic Forecasts

Thursday, May 6

  • 7:30 a.m. U.S. – Challenger Job Cuts y/y
  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Unemployment Claims, Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity q/q, Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q
  • 1:00 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Bostic Speech

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Selection Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to $1777.10 Pivot Sets the Tone

Gold futures are trading flat to lower on Wednesday as concerns over the possibility of higher U.S. interest rates, following hawkish comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, drove the U.S. Dollar higher.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Tuesday she sees no inflation problem brewing, downplaying earlier comments that rate hikes may be needed to stop the economy from overheating as President Joe Biden’s spending plans boost growth.

At 08:41 GMT, June Comex gold futures are trading $1774.80, down $1.20 or -0.07%.

Daily June Comex Gold

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1799.50 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through $1754.60 will change the main trend to down.

The minor range is $1754.60 to $1799.50. The market is currently straddling its 50% level or pivot at $1777.10.

On the upside, the resistance is the long-term 50% level at $1788.50.

On the downside, the first potential support is a 50% level at $1761.40, followed by a second 50% level at $1738.40 and a long-term Fibonacci level at $1711.90.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June Comex gold futures contract is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at $1777.10.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1777.10 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the 50% level at $1761.40, followed closely by the main bottom at $1754.60.

Taking out $1754.60 will change the main trend to down. This could trigger an acceleration into another 50% level at $1738.40.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1777.10 will signal the presence of buyers. The first upside target is the long-term 50% level at $1788.50. Overtaking this level could drive the market into $1799.50. This price is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with $1817.60 the next potential upside target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.