IBEX 35 Futures Forecast December 4, 2012, Technical Analysis

The IBEX 35 Index fell during the session on Monday, as we continue to grind just below the €8000 level. With that being said, we are towards the top of the consolidation area, but have seen an unusually strong market over the last couple weeks. It is because of this that we are essentially looking to break the bottom of the Wednesday hammer from last week before we start selling. As far as buying is concerned, is going be very difficult to do until we break above the €8200 level as we see the entire region between 8000 and  8200 as one big resistance level.

 

IBEX 35 Futures Forecast December 4, 2012, Technical Analysis
IBEX 35 Futures Forecast December 4, 2012, Technical Analysis

IBEX 35 forecast for the week of December 3, 2012, Technical Analysis

The IBEX 35 Index bounced around during the previous five sessions in order to form a fairly neutral looking candle. This is mainly because of the €8000 level, and the fact that it begins a resistance zone all the way up to the €8200 level. Looking at this chart, over the long term we could have a significant move, but we are obviously bouncing around in a relatively small consolidation area. Because of this, we think that the market will do very little over the next couple of weeks.

 

IBEX 35 forecast for the week of December 3, 2012, Technical Analysis
IBEX 35 forecast for the week of December 3, 2012, Technical Analysis

IBEX 35 Forecast December 3, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Spanish index barely budged during the Friday session as we continue to bounce into the €8000 level. This area should be significant resistance, and as a result we are not interested in buying at this point in time. However, on the other side we do see significant support at the €7800 level as well. This looks like a market that is boxed in, and will find it very difficult to make a serious move in one direction or the other. With that being said, this is one of her least favorite markets currently, and will be avoided.

 

IBEX 35 Forecast December 3, 2012, Technical Analysis
IBEX 35 Forecast December 3, 2012, Technical Analysis

IBEX 35 Forecast November 30, 2012, Technical Analysis

The IBEX 35 initially fell during the session on Thursday, but found quite a bit of support at the €7800 level in order to bounce and attempt to break above €8000. However, we failed to do that, and as such we still see €8000 as a significant barrier. Nonetheless, this market is far too noisy right now to be involved with, and although we can see the possibility of breaking out to the upside, we think between here and €8200 is going to be a very significant barrier to cross. In the meantime, we are more than willing to sit on the sidelines as is market looks choppy and consolidated at best.

IBEX 35 Forecast November 30, 2012, Technical Analysis
IBEX 35 Forecast November 30, 2012, Technical Analysis

 

IBEX 35 Futures Forecast November 29, 2012, Technical Analysis

The IBEX fell during the session on Wednesday, but remained in a fairly tight range in order to keep this market fairly benign. With that being said, it appears that the €8000 level continues to offer significant resistance, and as a result we do not look for any explosive move to the upside. Because of this, we feel this market is almost pointless to be involved with at this point in time, and would only be interested in shorting it if we managed to break down below the €7800 level.

However, below there we do see the €7500 level as significant support. The market itself has a bit of a downward grind to it, and we think that it will continue. After all, Spain is the epicenter of all things bad in Europe right now, and as a result traders are probably a little bit less likely to be involved in this market, when they can just as easily be involved in the German or French markets.

 

IBEX 35 Futures Forecast November 29, 2012, Technical Analysis
IBEX 35 Futures Forecast November 29, 2012, Technical Analysis

IBEX 35 Index Futures Forecast November 28, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Spanish index fell during the session on Tuesday as we reach towards the top of the recent consolidation area. The €8000 level continues to be very resistive, and as a result we think that the €7600 level will be targeted eventually. This market has a decided “lean” to the downside. The market looks like it is struggling to get higher, and as a result we are expecting the IBEX to roll over in the next couple of sessions, and because of this we will be shorting it if we break the lows of the Tuesday trading range.

 

IBEX 35 Index Futures Forecast November 28, 2012, Technical Analysis
IBEX 35 Index Futures Forecast November 28, 2012, Technical Analysis

IBEX 35 Index Futures Forecast November 27, 2012, Technical Analysis

The IBEX 35 initially fell during the Monday session, but found support at the €7800 level in order to form a hammer. However, this is a choppy market at best, and we do recognize the fact that there is quite a bit of resistance above. In fact, we are not really interested in buying this market until we can break out and above the €8200 level. At that point time, quite a bit of resistance would have been overcome, and would show a significant bullish tendency to this marketplace. However, in the meantime, we will monitor this market for significant development.

 

IBEX 35 Index Futures Forecast November 27, 2012, Technical Analysis
IBEX 35 Index Futures Forecast November 27, 2012, Technical Analysis

IBEX 35 Index Futures forecast for the week of November 26, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Spanish index rose during the previous week as the consolidation continues to grind away between €7500 and €8000. We do see however that the highs are getting slightly lower. Nonetheless, we are still indecisive as to whether or not we are going to break higher, or lower. Truth be known, we are much more comfortable shorting this market and would do so aggressively below the €7500 level. Looking at the upside, we do see quite a bit of noise between present area and €9000, and this is part of why we are more apt to sell them by. However, we do need to see that breakout first in order to start doing so.

 

IBEX 35 Index Futures forecast for the week of November 26, 2012, Technical Analysis
IBEX 35 Index Futures forecast for the week of November 26, 2012, Technical Analysis

IBEX 35 Index Futures Forecast November 26, 2012, Technical Analysis

The IBEX 35 Index had another positive showing on Friday, but we did see only slight gains. Initially, the market had fallen down to the €7800 level, only to turn around and bounce. The resulting candle is a hammer, and it is at the top of a recent move higher. This could either be a strong, supportive sign, or a dreaded “hanging man.” If we managed to break the bottom of the scandal, it would become a hanging man and have the market selling off. Nonetheless, we are not big fans of going long this market quite yet as it does look like it’s trying to grind higher, but it is tilting slightly to the downside in general.

 

IBEX 35 Index Futures Forecast November 26, 2012, Technical Analysis
IBEX 35 Index Futures Forecast November 26, 2012, Technical Analysis

IBEX 35 Futures Forecast November 23, 2012, Technical Analysis

The Spanish IBEX rose during the Thursday session as the futures followed suit. The futures market did clear the €7800 level, and it appears that we are aiming for the €8000 handle as well. However, until we break that barrier, it is difficult to get overly bullish of this market as there is still a bit of a “downward slant” to this market. We still believe that the market will fall over time, and as such are looking for selling opportunities somewhere just above current prices. However, with the market closing the top of the Thursday range is unlikely that we will get right away. We figure this market may be one to sell in a few days.

 

IBEX 35 Futures Forecast November 23, 2012, Technical Analysis
IBEX 35 Futures Forecast November 23, 2012, Technical Analysis

IBEX Futures Forecast November 22, 2012, Technical Analysis

The IBEX rose during the session on Wednesday as the €7600 level continues to be rather supportive. However, this market does have a bit of a “downward slant” to it, and as a result we are not willing to buy this market. In fact, we would like to short this market if we do not manage to make a new high. As long as we are below the €8000 level, we are at risk of doing this.

With everything being said and done, Spain is the epicenter of the largest amount of pain that Europe has experienced far. Because of this, we are not willing to buy Spanish stocks at this point time and firmly believe that we will have a shorting opportunity in the near-term. Any signs of weakness as we close in on €8000 are a sign to start selling as far as we are concerned.

 

IBEX Futures Forecast November 22, 2012, Technical Analysis
IBEX Futures Forecast November 22, 2012, Technical Analysis

IBEX 35 Futures Forecast November 21, 2012, Technical Analysis

The IBEX rose during the session on Tuesday as the market continues to grind away in a sideways manner with a slightly bearish bias. The €7600 level still looks supportive, and until we get below that on a daily close, it is unlikely that we will see any traction in this market. We certainly wouldn’t by this market, as Spain is the epicenter of all things wrong in Europe right now. However, we can see that if we got above the €7800 level, we could see an attempt to reach the €8000 level, but we will use any rally like that as an invitation to sell this market from higher levels. If we managed to clear the €7400 level to the downside, we think this market could fall rapidly at that point.

 

IBEX 35 Futures Forecast November 21, 2012, Technical Analysis
IBEX 35 Futures Forecast November 21, 2012, Technical Analysis

IBEX 35 Futures Forecast November 20, 2012, Technical Analysis

The IBEX 35 had a positive session on Monday, as the “risk on” rally ensued around the world. Financial indices around Europe all gain, and of course Spain would have been no different area however, this market does look like it’s slowly starting to grind South, and we do think that we will eventually start to go below the €7400 level. In fact, we believe that the €7600 level is the default gateway to increased selling if we can close well below it. With this in mind, we are selling rallies as the highs keep getting lower.

 

IBEX 35 Futures Forecast November 20, 2012, Technical Analysis
IBEX 35 Futures Forecast November 20, 2012, Technical Analysis

IBEX 35 Index forecast for the week of November 19, 2012, Technical Analysis

The IBEX 35 Index tried to rally during the week, but failed as you can see and formed a shooting star. Looking at this chart, we are just below the recent consolidation area, and as such we think that the €7500 level is going to be crucial as support. If we can get below that level, we think this market falls much farther, probably to the €7000 level. We have no base case in which to start buying this market as the rally failed over the last five sessions.

 

IBEX 35 Index forecast for the week of November 19, 2012, Technical Analysis
IBEX 35 Index forecast for the week of November 19, 2012, Technical Analysis

IBEX 35 Forecast November 19, 2012, Technical Analysis

The IBEX 35 fell during the Friday session as the €7700 level looks to be far too resistive for the buyers. We personally believe that the €7500 level looks to be significant support, and if we get a daily close below that level we be willing to start shorting this market aggressively. With this being said, we think that a move below that support level will send this market down the €7200, and probably in relatively short time. As far as buying is concerned, we do not have a case where we want to be involved with Spanish stocks at the moment.

 

IBEX 35 Forecast November 19, 2012, Technical Analysis
IBEX 35 Forecast November 19, 2012, Technical Analysis

IBEX 35 Futures Forecast November 16, 2012, Technical Analysis

The IBEX 35 had a fairly quiet session during Thursday as we continue to see it however around the €7680 level and a pattern of relatively and decisive action. The market is slowly drifting lower, and as such, we would be interested in selling. This is partly predicated upon the idea of the European indices in general looking week, and the fact the continent has slipped back into recession.

With core countries like Germany and France starting to show signs of recession as well, it’s unlikely that Spanish corporations will find some type of relief by they are richer neighbors. With this in mind, we do not think that Spain is a place that you want to invest at this moment in time. We are negative of this market, and would start selling on a break below the €7600 level.

 

IBEX 35 Futures Forecast November 16, 2012, Technical Analysis
IBEX 35 Futures Forecast November 16, 2012, Technical Analysis

IBEX 35 Futures Forecast November 15, 2012, Technical Analysis

The IBEX rose during the session on Wednesday, in defiance of many of the “risk off” attitude around the world. Spain saw a bit of a lift in its stock market, perhaps because it had already reached the bottom of the consolidation area. The candle is an outside bullish one, so this normally means positive directionality afterwards. On a break of the highs from the Wednesday session, we are willing to go long and aim for roughly €8000.

However, if we see a break of the bottom of the sessions range, we would take this as a sell signal and would expect the market to close well below the €7400 level and continue much lower. We think that with the headline risks out there, this is a very viable out, based upon how some of the other indices around the world acted during the session.

 

 IBEX 35 Futures Forecast November 15, 2012, Technical Analysis
IBEX 35 Futures Forecast November 15, 2012, Technical Analysis

IBEX 35 Index Futures Forecast November 14, 2012, Technical Analysis

The IBEX 35 futures initially fell during the session on Tuesday, but found support at the €7600 level in order to form a hammer for the second day in a row. It looks like support is stepping up to the plate, and that we will see a move back up to the €8200 before it’s all said and done. This runs counterintuitive to many of the stock markets around the world, and as such Spain may be one of the better places to put your money at the moment.

However, it should be stated that the Americans sold off late into their session, and as such this could be reflected when the Spanish come back online. Looking forward, this area has been rather consolidated over the last couple of months, and there isn’t much in this chart does suggest that it won’t continue.

On a break of the highs from Friday, we would be more than willing to start buying the futures in this market and aiming for at least €8000. At that point time, we see a resistance level that could start to cause problems. However, this level is minor in nature, and as such we think that the €8200 level will eventually be reached by the buyers in this marketplace.

Spanish debt is starting to show higher yields, and as such this move could be reversed at any moment. Is because of this that we decide to keep tight stops in this market, as that is could come out of nowhere suddenly. With all things Spanish related, one can simply wait for a day or two until the next headline comes out, so of course we will be cautious.

Because of this, this isn’t necessarily our favorite market, but we do recognize the opportunity that has presented itself. We would only put on a small position at this point time, and certainly wouldn’t risk any serious capital at this point. We may be able to gain and add to your account balance at this moment time, but again, we are concerned about headline risks in this market.

 

IBEX 35 Index Futures Forecast November 14, 2012, Technical Analysis
IBEX 35 Index Futures Forecast November 14, 2012, Technical Analysis

IBEX Index Futures Forecast November 13, 2012, Technical Analysis

The IBEX 35 futures fell during the session on Monday, but bounced back nicely from the €7500 level in order to form a hammer. This hammer looks like it is confirming that we are going to remain within the previous consolidation area, and should have a fairly bullish session on Tuesday. If we managed to break the top of Monday’s hammer, we feel that this market should continue higher, at least to the €8000 level.

This market looks like it’s ready to go sideways for some time, and this makes sense as the European debt issues circle around Spain itself. As long as there is a lot of uncertainty out there, this market will fail to continue much higher than €8200. In the meantime, we will play this is a range bound market.

 

IBEX Index Futures Forecast November 13, 2012, Technical Analysis
IBEX Index Futures Forecast November 13, 2012, Technical Analysis

IBEX 35 Futures forecast for the week of November 12, 2012, Technical Analysis

The IBEX continue to grind sideways during the sessions this previous week. The 7600 level seems to be the support area, and the 8200 level seems to be the resistance. Lately, we have not even been able to get above the 8000 level, and this of course signifies of the market is only getting tighter.

Because of this, we really don’t see much in the way of a buying or selling opportunity for longer-term investors. However, if we managed to break down below the 76 level on it least a daily close, we could see a nice shorting opportunity. Alternately, if we managed to break above the 8200 level, we think this market would start to gain ground yet again and it would become a longer-term buy-and-hold type of situation.

 

IBEX 35 Futures forecast for the week of November 12, 2012, Technical Analysis
IBEX 35 Futures forecast for the week of November 12, 2012, Technical Analysis