Kellogg Shares Soar on Q1 Earnings Beat and Raised Outlook

Kellogg shares rose over 8% on Thursday after the leading worldwide manufacturer and marketer of ready-to-eat cereals, reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue in the first quarter and lifted the fiscal year 2021 guidance.

The U.S. second-largest biscuit maker reported net sales rose over 5% to $3.58 billion in the quarter ended April 3, up from $3.41 billion seen in the same period a year ago. That was higher than the Wall Street consensus estimates of $3.38 billion.

The Battle Creek, Michigan-based company said its diluted earnings per share rose over 12% to $1.11, beating analysts’ expectations of $0.95 per share.

Kellogg forecasts sales growth to finish 2021 nearly flat year-on-year, an improvement from the previous expectations of about a 1% decline. Adjusted earnings per share is expected to increase by nearly 1% to 2%, up from the previous forecast of a 1% rise.

Following the upbeat results, Kellogg shares rose as high as 8% to $68.14 on Thursday. The stock rose over 8% so far this year.

Analyst Comments

“We expect a positive stock reaction to Kellogg’s large Q1 topline/profit/EPS beat, despite the cycling of solid topline growth in 1Q20, along with slightly raised FY21 guidance. While the magnitude of the FY21 raise was small (organic sales +100 bps, OP/EPS growth +50 bps), it was unexpected as there were concerns about lower or lower-quality FY guidance with commodity pressure,” noted Dara Mohsenian, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

Kellogg Stock Price Forecast

Five analysts who offered stock ratings for Kellogg in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months of $66.00 with a high forecast of $72.00 and a low forecast of $60.00.

The average price target represents a -2.73% decrease from the last price of $67.85. Of those five analysts, two rated “Buy”, three rated “Hold” while none rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley gave the base target price to $60 with a high of $71 under a bull scenario and $43 under the worst-case scenario. The firm gave an “Equal-weight” rating on the food manufacturing company’s stock.

Several other analysts have also updated their stock outlook. Kellogg had its price target cut by Deutsche Bank to $70 from $75. They currently have a buy rating on the stock. Citigroup reduced their price objective to $72 from $75. Jefferies Financial Group dropped their target price to $65 from $69 and set a hold rating. Piper Sandler lowered Kellogg from an overweight rating to a neutral rating and dropped their target price to $66 from $76.

Upside and Downside Risks

Risks to Upside: Higher US snacks growth on reinvestment/innovation, stabilized US cereal business with innovation and higher ad spend, higher-margin expansion on greater cost savings and moderate commodities – highlighted by Morgan Stanley.

Risks to Downside: Pricing pressure in the US (65% of sales) with retailer friction, COVID-related supply chain disruptions in 2020, lower operating profit growth on higher reinvestment needs and cost pressure.

Check out FX Empire’s earnings calendar

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Market Continues Sideways Behavior

The S&P 500 initially tried to rally during the course of the trading session on Thursday but then gave back the gains to start falling again. Quite frankly, there are lot of mixed messages out there when it comes to the economy in the stock market went forward, but at the end of the day we are still very much in an uptrend and it is worth paying attention to. The 4100 level underneath should offer support, as it has over the last couple weeks. That being said, there is even more support underneath at the 50 day EMA and of course the 4000 level. With that being said, I think that if we get some type of selling pressure, then we will get long again based upon some type of bounce.

S&P 500 Video 07.05.21

To the upside, I see the 4200 level as a major barrier that needs to be overcome with some type of catalyst. We are in the midst of earnings season and it has gone fairly well but quite frankly the market had already priced all that in. Because of this, I think that we will continue to see a “buy on the dips” type of mentality, as we continue to find plenty of narratives out there to push this market higher. Central banks around the world will continue to flood the markets with liquidity, thereby having people push money into stock markets yet again. I see no scenario in which a willing to start shorting this market anytime soon.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

American Indices Moving in Opposite Directions

American Indices are currently moving in opposite directions. The tech-heavy NASDAQ index is going down, aiming for the long-term up trendline while the old-school Dow Jones flirts with all-time highs after the price escaped from the pennant formation.

The German Dax is trading inside a flag formation, which is promoting a long-term breakout to the upside.

Gold is aiming higher after a successful bounce from the 1760 USD/oz support.

The USDCAD broke the lower line of the channel down formation, which should be considered an extreme weakness.

The AUDCHF tested the lower line of the symmetric triangle pattern. A breakout to the downside is very probable.

The ZARJPY shot higher after a false bearish breakout from the Head and Shoulders formation.

The EURPLN is aiming higher after a very handsome bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart.

The USDHUF dropped like a rock after the price created a shooting star on the daily chart, which bounced from a combination of dynamic and horizontal resistances.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

Stocks Mixed After Better-Than-Expected Initial Jobless Claims Report

Stocks Lack Direction As Traders Wait For New Catalysts

S&P 500 futures are swinging between gains and losses in premarket trading as traders remain cautious while the market is trading near record highs.

The market faced some selling pressure at the beginning of May, but it should be noted that the recent attempt to move lower was quickly bought. Traders seem to be a bit worried about higher inflation which may force the Fed to raise rates sooner than expected, but such worries are not strong. The bond market stays calm, and the yield of 10-year Treasuries has recently failed to settle above the 20 EMA at 1.60%.

At this point, it looks that the market will need additional catalysts to gain momentum and move away from current levels.

Initial Jobless Claims Decline To 498,000

The U.S. has just released Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims reports. Initial Jobless Claims report indicated that 498,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in a week. Analysts expected that Initial Jobless Claims would total 540,000.

Continuing Jobless Claims increased from 3.65 million (revised from 3.66 million) to 3.69 million compared to analyst consensus of 3.62 million.

Yesterday, ADP Employment Change report indicated that private businesses hired 742,000 workers compared to analyst consensus of 800,000. The employment picture will not be complete without Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate reports which will be published tomorrow. Non Farm Payrolls report is expected to show that the economy added 978,000 jobs in April. Unemployment Rate is projected to decline from 6% to 5.8%.

Oil Moves Lower As India Reports Record Number Of COVID-19 Cases

Yesterday, India reported more than 412,000 of new coronavirus cases, putting pressure on the oil market. While oil traders have mostly ignored negative developments in India, the country’s problems may ultimately have a notable impact on demand for oil.

Meanwhile, the recent EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report indicated that crude inventories declined by 8 million barrels compared to analyst consensus which called for a decline of 2.35 million barrels. The U.S. domestic production remained unchanged at 10.9 million barrels per day (bpd) which was bullish for oil.

The recent data suggests that oil demand is picking up, so oil will have good chances to continue its upside move when the situation in India shows signs of stabilization.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Strong Earnings Pull FTSE 100 Higher Ahead of BoE Meet, Election Day

The blue-chip index rose 0.3%, with fashion retailer Next gaining 2.1% after it raised its profit outlook for the 2021-22 year for the second time in two months.

Engineer Melrose gained 1.2% after it said it was performing “modestly” ahead of expectations, with operating margins in the first quarter improving faster than expected.

The domestically focused mid-cap FTSE 250 index advanced 0.2%.

The BoE is expected to raise 2021 GDP forecast sharply from its previous estimate of 5% growth at 1100 GMT, and it might start to slow its pandemic emergency support.

Voters in England, Scotland and Wales head to the polls on Thursday in a series of different elections, with a vote for the Scottish parliament and one for a seat in Westminster in focus for clues to Britain’s future political landscape.

(Reporting by Devik Jain in Bengaluru; editing by Uttaresh.V)

MetLife Shares Hit New Record High After Strong Q1 Earnings; Target Price $72 in Best Case

MetLife, one of the largest life insurers in the world, reported better-than-expected earnings in the first quarter of 2021 and said the worst impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was behind, sending shares to a record high on Wednesday.

The New York-based insurer reported net income of $290 million, or $0.33 per share, compared to net income of $4.4 billion, or $4.75 per share, in the first quarter of 2020. Adjusted earnings rose to $2.0 billion, or $2.20 per share, up from adjusted earnings of $1.4 billion, or $1.58 per share, seen in the same period a year ago. That beat the Wall Street consensus estimates of $1.48 per share.

“In the quarter, we were very pleased to return approximately $1.4 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and common stock dividends. We believe the worst impact of the pandemic on our business performance is behind us, and we are well-positioned to create additional value for our stakeholders in the future,” said MetLife President and CEO Michel Khalaf.

The leader of life insurance company said its net investment income rose 74% to $5.3 billion, largely driven by increases in the estimated fair value of certain securities that do not qualify as separate accounts under GAAP and higher variable investment income primarily due to higher private equity returns.

Following the upbeat results, MetLife shares hit an all-time of $65.905 on Wednesday. The stock rose over 39% so far this year.

Analyst Comments

“This quarter’s results clearly received an outsized benefit from strong alternative results, but what impresses us more is the stability and growth in underlying earnings, which should help in our view to drive further upside in the stock,” noted Nigel Dally, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“Operating EPS was $2.20, considerably above both our estimate and the consensus of $1.53. Favorable marks on alternative investments provided more of a boost than expected, contributing over $1 billion to pre-tax earnings above a normal level. Conversely, pandemic-related claims weighed on some divisions, most notably its domestic group insurance operations. Excluding these items, we view the core earnings run-rate potential of the company as being largely in-line with prior expectations.”

MetLife Stock Price Forecast

Nine analysts who offered stock ratings for MetLife in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months of $66.11 with a high forecast of $72.00 and a low forecast of $54.00.

The average price target represents a 1.07% increase from the last price of $65.41. Of those nine analysts, eight rated “Buy”, one rated “Hold” while none rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley raised the base target price to $72 from $70 with a high of $83 under a bull scenario and $48 under the worst-case scenario. The firm gave an “Overweight” rating on the life insurer’s stock.

“Following its retail separation, the company is committed to profitable growth while also simplify its operations to reduce earnings volatility. The company also de-risked its investment portfolio somewhat. Given these moves, the investment thesis for MetLife now revolves around capital management and free cash flow generation, growth in international operations, and expense reduction initiatives,” Morgan Stanley’s Dally added.

“We believe MetLife has the ability to continue its solid execution in its various businesses. More importantly, the solid results over the past several quarters were not driven by a single division, with all segments contributing to earnings growth to a certain extent.”

Several other analysts have also updated their stock outlook. JP Morgan raised the stock price forecast to $66 from $64. UBS initiated with a buy rating and a $72 target price. KBW upped the price target to $68 from $64. Piper Sandler lifted the price objective to $68 from $58. Evercore ISI increased the price target to $65 from $52. RBC raised the target price to $66 from $57.

Check out FX Empire’s earnings calendar

World Shares Resilient, Drugmakers Hit by Biden’s Move on Vaccines

By Hideyuki Sano

MSCI’s broadest gauge of world stocks, ACWI, was up slightly and European stocks are expected to open flat with both Euro Stoxx futures and Britain’s FTSE futures little changed.

Japan’s Nikkei jumped 1.8% as it reopened after a five-day holiday.

But MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost 0.15% as Chinese shares, also resuming trade for the first time since last week, wobbled. The CSI300 fell 1.3%, led by falls in biotech firms.

China’s healthcare share index dropped more than 4% after U.S. President Joe Biden threw his support behind waiving intellectual property rights for COVID-19 vaccines.

Biden’s move hit U.S. vaccine makers, too, including Moderna, but Wall Street was supported overall by gains in energy and other cyclical shares.

Dow hit a record high overnight, having risen 0.29%, while the S&P 500 added 0.07%.

“This year, both the U.S. and Chinese economy could grow 6% or more. If the world’s two biggest economies are growing that much, clearly that’s positive,” said Norihiro Fujito, chief investment strategist, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.

Against this backdrop, commodity prices are riding high, with copper flirting with 10-year peaks.

Oil prices extended gains to edge near their March tops as crude stockpiles in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer, fell more sharply than expected.

U.S. crude futures stood at $65.65 per barrel, little changed on the day but just below Wednesday’s two-month high of $66.76. [O/R]

As agricultural products such as corn, soybeans and wheat, have gained sharply in recent weeks, Thomson Reuters CRB index has risen to its highest level since 2015, having gained more than 21% so far this year.

BONDS AND CURRENCIES

Higher commodity prices are fuelling inflation expectations in the bond market.

The U.S. breakeven inflation rate, or inflation expectations calculated from the yield gap between inflation-linked bonds and conventional bonds, rose to as high as 2.48% overnight.

But the U.S. nominal bond yields held relatively stable, with the 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield little changed at 1.584%.

“Bonds were supported partly because the pace of vaccinations has slowed in the States and as real-money investors are starting to buy,” said Naokazu Koshimizu, economist at Nomura Securities.

“The rise in inflation is also driven more by supply constraints than demand, which is why we are seeing rising inflation expectations and a fall in nominal yields,” he added.

In currencies, the Australian dollar briefly dropped as much as 0.6% after China said it was indefinitely suspending all activity under a China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue, the latest setback for their strained relations.

It last stood down 0.15% at $0.7734

The British pound was flat at $1.3910 ahead of a central bank policy review.

The Bank of England could slow the pace of its bond buying to allow its quantitative easing programme to last until the end of the year, as it could reach the cap by September at the current pace of buying.

Investors also looked to Scotland’s election that could trigger a showdown with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson over a new independence referendum.

Other currencies were little moved, with the focus on Friday’s U.S. monthly jobs report which is expected to show that nonfarm payrolls increased by 978,000 jobs last month.

The euro stood flat at $1.2004 while the yen changed hands at 109.35 per dollar.

(Editing by Himani Sarkar and Kim Coghill)

European Equities: Economic Data from Germany, the Eurozone, and the U.S in Focus

Economic Calendar:

Thursday, 6th May 2021

German Factory Orders (MoM) (Mar)

IHS Markit Construction PMI (Apr)

Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)

Friday, 7th May 2021

German Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)

German Trade Balance (Mar)

ECB President Lagarde Speech

The Majors

It was a bullish day for the European majors on Wednesday, which were on the rebound from Tuesday’s pullback. The DAX30 rallied by 2.12%, with the CAC40 and the EuroStoxx600 ending the day up by 1.40% and by 1.82% respectively.

Corporate earnings, economic data, and a pickup in vaccination rates across the EU supported the more optimistic economic outlook.

With the EU making progress on the vaccination front, plans across the EU to reopen borders this summer also delivered a boost.

The Stats

It was a particularly busy day on the economic calendar. Service sector PMI figures for Italy and Spain were in focus early in the session.

Finalized services and composite PMIs from France, Germany, and the Eurozone also drew attention.

In April, Spain’s services PMI rose from 48.1 to 54.6, while Italy’s services PMI slipped from 48.6 to 47.3.

Economists had forecast PMIs of 50.0 and 49.8 respectively.

From France, the services PMI rose from 47.9 to 50.3, which was down from a prelim 50.4.

Germany’s services PMI fell from 50.8 to 49.9, which was down from a prelim 50.1.

The Eurozone

For the Eurozone, the Services PMI rose from 49.6 to 50.5, which was up from a prelim 50.3. As a result, the composite PMI increased from 53.2 to 53.8, which was up from a prelim 53.7.

According to the finalized Markit Composite Survey,

  • The latest data from the private sector indicated the fastest expansion since July and the second best in over two-and-a-half years.
  • Goods producers continued to lead the way, with output rising at a rate little changed from March’s record.
  • Service sector output returned to growth following 7-months of continuous contraction.
  • Germany led the way again in terms of overall growth, supported by strong manufacturing sector growth.
  • A jump in service sector activity in Spain saw private sector growth at its strongest in over 2-years.
  • Growth in both France and Italy was modest in April, while growth in France was the best in the past 8-months.

The Details

  • New orders across the private sector rose at the most marked pace in over two-and-a-half years.
  • Firms reported higher sales in both domestic and international markets.
  • The rate of backlog growth was the sharpest for 39-months and supported a pickup in hiring.
  • Firms increased staffing levels to the strongest degree for 2-years.
  • Optimism across the private sector reached its highest since composite data were first available in mid-2012.

From the U.S

It was a busy day, with ADP nonfarm employment change and service sector PMIs in focus late in the European session.

In April, nonfarm payrolls increased by 742k according to the ADP, which was up from 517k in March. Economists had forecast a rise of 800k.

From the services sector, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI slipped from 63.7 to 62.7, coming up short of a forecasted 64.3.

Finalized Markit survey services and composite PMIs for April were also out but had a muted impact on the majors.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a mixed day for the auto sector on Wednesday. Daimler rallied by 2.57%, with BMW and Volkswagen gaining 1.25% and 1.55% respectively. Continental bucked the trend, however, falling by 0.20%.

It was a bullish day for the banks. Deutsche Bank rose by 1.89%, with Commerzbank ended the day up by 0.78%.

From the CAC, it was a bullish day for the banks. BNP Paribas rallied by 3.49%, with Credit Agricole and Soc Gen gaining 1.95% and 1.87% respectively.

It was also a bullish day for the French auto sector. Stellantis NV jumped by 7.25% off the back of better-than-expected earnings results. Renault ended the day up by 3.13%.

Air France-KLM fell by 1.72%, with Airbus SE slipping by 0.17%.

On the VIX Index

It was back into the red for the VIX on Wednesday, marking a 2nd daily loss in 5-sessions.

Partially reversing a 6.39% gain from Tuesday, the VIX fell by 1.69% to end the day at 19.15.

The NASDAQ fell by 0.37%, while the Dow and the S&P500 saw gains of 0.29% and 0.07% respectively.

VIX 060521 Daily Chart

The Day Ahead

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the European economic data front. Key stats include German factory orders and Eurozone retail sales figures.

Expect March factory orders from Germany to have a greater impact on the European majors.

From the U.S, weekly jobless claims figures will also provide direction later in the session.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was down by 2 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Support Moves Up to 33896 and 33688

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are in a position to close higher late Wednesday after the cash market Dow hit a record high earlier in the session on the back of strong performances by components technology giants Microsoft Corp and Apple Inc. Helping to dampen the rally were shares of Boeing Co, which fell 1.6%.

At 20:52 GMT, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 34116, up 96 or +0.28%.

In other news, the ADP National Employment Report showed U.S. private payrolls increased in April as companies rushed to boost production amid a surge in demand, powered by massive government aid and rising vaccinations against COVID-19.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 34219 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through the nearest swing bottom at 33572.

The first minor range is 33572 to 34219. Its 50% level or pivot at 33896 is the first support.

The second minor range is 33157 to 34219. Its pivot at 33688 is another potential support level.

The short-term range is 31951 to 34219. If the main trend changes to down then its 50% level at 33085 will become the primary downside target.

Short-Term Outlook

The early trade on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 34113.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 34113 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into 34219. This price is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 34113 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the first pivot at 33896.

Side Notes

Taking out 34219 on Thursday then closing lower will form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 4165.75, Weakens Under 4160.75

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading slightly higher, well off its high and threatening to test its low for the day, late in the session on Wednesday.

Earlier in the session, the S&P 500 technology sector was up about 0.9%. Six of the 11 major S&P 500 sector rose in early afternoon trading, with commodity-sensitive sectors including energy and materials rising 3.5% and 1.3%, respectively.

Defensive utilities fell 2.2% and real estate dropped 1.3%, leading sectoral declines.

At 20:21 GMT, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4160.75, up 2.50 or +0.06%.

Daily June E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending lower. A trade through 4211.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 4110.50 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is down. This is controlling the momentum. A trade through 4202.50 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.

The minor range is 4211.00 to 4120.50. The index straddled its pivot at 4165.75 throughout the session, suggesting a battle between bullish trend-traders and aggressive counter-trend traders.

The short-term range is 4110.50 to 4211.00. Its 50% level or pivot is 4160.75. This level was also straddled on Wednesday.

The main range is 3843.25 to 4211.00. If the main trend changes to down then look for the selling to possibly extend into its retracement zone at 4027.00 to 3983.75.

Short-Term Outlook

The minor direction of the index will be determined by trader reaction to the minor pivot at 4165.75.

The short-term direction of the index will be determined by trader reaction to the short-term pivot at 4160.75.

Look for an upside bias to develop on a sustained move over 4165.75 with 4120.50 and 4211.00 the next potential upside targets.

A downside bias is likely to develop on a sustained move under 4160.75. This could lead to a test of this week’s low at 4120.50, followed by the main bottom at 4110.50.

Side Notes

Trading between 4160.75 and 4165.75 for most of the session on Thursday will indicate investor indecision and impending volatility.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Market Killing Time Before Jobs Number

The S&P 500 continues to go sideways, but at this point in time that has to be thought of as somewhat bullish after the massive recovery that we had seen late in the day on Tuesday. In other words, it suggests that we are looking at a market that is simply trying to hang on to the bullish trend, but in general this is a market that probably needs to sit still until we get the noise on Friday out of the way. After all, the Nine Farm Payroll announcement is one of the most disruptive announcement out there.

S&P 500 Video 06.05.21

To the downside, the 4100 level looks to be supportive, and most certainly the 50 day EMA will be down by the gap just above the 4000 handle. The 4000 handle of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and between that and the gap, and of course the 200 day EMA, this is a market where there should be plenty of buyers underneath. If we did break down below all of that then we probably go looking towards the 3800 level.

In general, you can only buy the S&P 500 because it is far too manipulated via central bank liquidity measures. Furthermore, it is not an equal weighted index so there is no reason to short it if just a handful of the top stocks are rallying. With that being the case, I do think eventually we break above the 4200 level, then I think the market probably goes looking towards the 4400 level, and therefore I think what we are looking at is a scenario where we could see another 200 points to the upside, but we need to see an impulsive candlestick and a daily close above 4200 to make that move.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

U.S. Hotel Operator Hilton’s Shares Slump as Q1 Earnings Disappoint

Hilton Worldwide Holdings, one of the largest and fastest-growing hospitality companies in the world, reported lower-than-expected earnings in the first quarter of 2021 as a resurgence in COVID-19 cases and tightening travel restrictions hurt bookings, sending its shares down about 4% on Wednesday.

The company, which has more than 4,000 hotels, resorts and timeshare properties comprising more than 650,000 rooms in 90 countries and territories, reported earnings per share, on an adjusted basis, of $0.02, missing the Wall Street’s consensus estimates of $0.05 per share.

Hilton said its net loss was $109 million for the first quarter and adjusted EBITDA was $198 million for the first quarter. System-wide comparable RevPAR fell 38.4% on a currency-neutral basis for the first quarter from the same period in 2020.

Following the disappointing results, Hilton shares fell about 4% to $124.54 on Wednesday. The stock rose over 12% so far this year.

Hilton Stock Price Forecast

Eight analysts who offered stock ratings for Hilton in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months of $120.75 with a high forecast of $145.00 and a low forecast of $104.00.

The average price target represents a -3.18% decrease from the last price of $124.71. Of those eight analysts, three rated “Buy”, five rated “Hold” while none rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley gave the base target price of $101 with a high of $141 under a bull scenario and $56 under the worst-case scenario. The firm gave an “Equal-weight” rating on the hospitality company’s stock.

Several other analysts have also updated their stock outlook. Hilton Worldwide had its price objective hoisted by Truist Securities to $114 from $106. Truist Securities currently has a hold rating on the stock. Raymond James raised their target price to $125 from $105 and gave the stock an outperform rating. Gordon Haskett upped their price target to $114 from $97 and gave the company a hold rating.

Analyst Comments

“The spread of coronavirus will pressure RevPAR growth, unit growth, and non-room fee growth. Strong mgmt team with a track record of creating value for owners. We see a wide risk-reward that will depend on the severity and speed of recovery from COVID-19,” noted Thomas Allen, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“We think HLT is well placed from a liquidity standpoint, but its ability to repurchase stock medium-term may be impaired.”

Check out FX Empire’s earnings calendar

NASDAQ: The Leaders Lead. Or Attempt to, and Fail.

The tech stocks were the strongest part of the stock market in the previous year or so, and for a good reason. Due to the lockdown-induced surge in remote work, the need for all sorts of tech improvements (in both: software and hardware) soared. So, it’s no wonder that the NASDAQ was the strongest part of the market. It was the sole leader.

Now, there’s a rule in every market that leaders… Well, lead. This makes perfect sense, no surprise yet. But, there’s a point after which the leaders stop leading and stocks that are relatively weak or have less favorable fundamentals are catching up, eventually rallying more than the leaders. Why would this be the case? Because those who understand the markets and what’s going on are already invested, and those who are neither as knowledgeable nor experienced – the investment public – enter the market.

The investment public makes purchases often without any regard to fundamentals (or technicals) – they buy because a given asset seems cheap compared to other assets. And what would be cheap in the final part of the upswing – after the market professionals have already established their positions in well-positioned assets? The poorly positioned assets. The stocks/markets that were – for a good reason – neglected previously. So, they start buying those, and the laggards become the new leaders.

The NASDAQ was the leader that started to underperform while other stocks soared. The last few months were as clear as it gets in terms of emphasizing that. While the S&P 500 Index soared to new all-time highs, the only thing that the tech stocks managed to do was to attempt to break to new highs.

Attempt.

And fail.

Last week’s shooting-star-shaped weekly reversal was bearish on its own, but considering that it was also a failure to break to new highs, the bearish fire got gasoline poured over it.

Now, this could have been accidental, and it was prudent to wait for another decline before stating that the top in the stock market is most likely in…

Until we saw yesterday’s slide. The NASDAQ is already over 2% lower this week, and it’s only after two sessions.

Why is this important? Because if we have indeed seen a major top on the stock market , then it tells us a lot about the next moves on the precious metals market. And – in particular – about mining stocks.

The history might not repeat itself, but it does rhyme, and those who insist on ignoring it are doomed to repeat it.

And there’s practically only one situation from more than the past four decades that is similar to what we see right now.

It’s the early 2000s when the tech stock bubble burst. It’s practically the only time when the tech stocks were after a similarly huge rally. It’s also the only time when the weekly MACD soared to so high levels (we already saw the critical sell signal from it). It’s also the only comparable case with regard to the breakout above the rising blue trend channel. The previous move above it was immediately followed by a pullback to the 200-week moving average, and then the final – most volatile – part of the rally started. It ended on significant volume when the MACD flashed the sell signal. Again, we’re already after this point.

The recent attempt to break to new highs that failed seems to have been the final cherry on the bearish cake.

Why should I – the precious metals investor, care?

Because of what happened in the XAU Index (a proxy for gold stocks and silver stocks ) shortly after the tech stock bubble burst last time.

What happened was that the mining stocks declined for about three months after the NASDAQ topped, and then they formed their final bottom that started the truly epic rally. And just like it was the case over 20 years ago, mining stocks topped several months before the tech stocks.

Mistaking the current situation for the true bottom is something that is likely to make a huge difference in one’s bottom line. After all, the ability to buy something about twice as cheap is practically equal to selling the same thing at twice the price. Or it’s like making money on the same epic upswing twice instead of “just” once.

And why am I writing about “half” and “twice”? Because… I’m being slightly conservative, and I assume that the history is about to rhyme once again as it very often does (despite seemingly different circumstances in the world). The XAU Index declined from its 1999 high of 92.72 to 41.61 – it erased 55.12% of its price.

The most recent medium-term high in the GDX ETF (another proxy for mining stocks) was at about $45. Half of that is $22.5, so a move to this level would be quite in tune with what we saw recently.

And the thing is that based on this week’s slide in the NASDAQ that followed the weekly reversal and the invalidation, it seems that this slide lower has already begun.

Wait, you said something about three months?

Yes, that’s approximately how long we had to wait for the final buying opportunity in the mining stocks to present itself based on the stock market top.

The reason is that after the 1929 top, gold miners declined for about three months after the general stock market started to slide. We also saw some confirmations of this theory based on the analogy to 2008.

All in all, the precious metals sector would be likely to bottom about three months after the general stock market tops. If the last week’s highs in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ were the final highs, then we might expect the precious metals sector to bottom in the middle of the year – in late July or in August.

Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
Founder, Editor-in-chief
Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

* * * * *

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski’s, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

Stocks Move Higher As Traders Shrug Off Inflation Worries

Stocks Set To Open Higher After Yesterday’s Sell-Off

S&P 500 futures are moving higher in premarket trading as traders look ready to buy stocks after yesterday’s pullback.

Yesterday’s sell-off in the tech space was caused by comments of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen which stated that interest rates may have to move higher to ensure that the economy did not overheat. These comments put immediate pressure on the tech-heavy Nasdaq which finished the day down by almost 2%.

Yellen later added that she was not predicting or recommending the move, and it looks that this was sufficient enough to calm traders. Interestingly, the bond market did not show a strong reaction. Currently, the yield of 10-year Treasuries is trying to settle above the 20 EMA at 1.61% which served as resistance for several trading sessions.

ADP Employment Change Report Misses Analyst Consensus

The U.S. has just released ADP Employment Change report for April. The report indicated that private businesses hired 742,000 workers compared to analyst consensus of 800,000.

Later, traders will take a look at the final reading of Services PMI report for April. Analysts expect that Services PMI increased from 60.4 in March to 63.1 in April as the economy continue to rebound at a robust pace.

WTI Oil Tests The $66 Level As Rally Continues

WTI oil is currently trying to settle above the $66 level as traders continue to bet on the strong recovery of oil demand. Yesterday, API Crude Oil Stock Change report indicated that crude inventories declined by 7.7 million barrels compared to analyst consensus which called for a decline of 2.19 million barrels.

Today, the market’s focus will shift to EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report which usually has a bigger impact on the market compared to API Crude Oil Stock Change report. If EIA numbers confirm that crude inventories declined at a robust pace, the oil market may get additional support.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Wall Street Worries About Interest Rates – What Does It Mean for SP500?

Fundamental Analysis

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen taking a somewhat opposing stance to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. In case you missed the headline, Yellen is saying we might need a modest rise in interest rates to blunt some of the government spendings we are seeing hit the street.

Later in the day, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan reiterated the need for the Fed to begin a conversation about scaling back its bond-buying in an interview with MarketWatch. Kaplan says that’s largely because he has greater confidence in the economy than he had a few months ago, but noted a “fog” around labor market participation rates that will take a while to clear.

Kaplan also noted that the Fed could remain “highly accommodative” without keeping rates pegged at zero. According to his assessment of the economy, Kaplan anticipates the Fed raising rates sometime in 2022, which is ahead of the timeline forecast by most Fed officials who don’t see the benchmark being lifted until 2023.

The moral of the story, talk that the economy could “overheat” and push interest rates higher seems to be a bit more worrisome now on Wall Street. I don’t think this anything most of us didn’t see coming, but the question of how the Fed reduces liquidity and tapers is still the big question?

If the Fed can nail the dismount then no harm no foul, but if you believe the market is currently “priced to perfection” then there is absolutely no room for Fed error.

Some of the bigger and more experienced investors won’t even like the thought of being this high up if the Fed is going to start unwinding.

A growing number of Wall Street traders expect the Fed’s June 15-16 policy meeting could begin outlining plans for such moves.

Economic data

Investors today are anxious to see ADP’s Employment Report for April which is expected to show around +850,000 jobs added. ADP’s numbers can vary widely from the official Labor Department numbers, which are due out on Friday and expected to show close to +1 million jobs were added during April.

The ISM Services Index for April is also due today. The gauge hit a new pandemic high as well as an all-time record high in March.

Wall Street will be paying particular attention to the employment and price components, which rose to pandemic highs last month as well.

Services activity accounts for about 75% of U.S. GDP so what’s happening in the sector has broad implications for the overall economy. Earnings will likely be the main focus today with several big names reporting, including Allstate, Barrick Gold, Cerner, Etsy, General Motors, GoDaddy, Hilton Worldwide, HubSpot, MetLife, Paypal, Redfin, Rocket Companies, Scotts MiracleGro, Twilio, Uber, Volkswagen. And Wynn Resorts.

SP500 technical analysis

Yesterday’s breakout levels played very well. For today, the neutral zone is 4131 – 4195.5. Middle-strength level within this zone – 4163.25, weak levels – 4179.25, 4147.

In case of a bullish breakout above 4195.5, look for weak level 4211.5 and middle-strength level – 4228. A bearish breakout below 4131 will target for 4115 – weak level and in extension 4098 – middle-strength level. Based on the intraday cycles, there are more chances for trading within the neutral zone today.

Important Note! For qualified breakout entry breakout level should turn into support/resistance. Don’t enter the trades without this price action confirmation.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Counter-Trend Upside Target is 13722.50 – 13803.00

June E-mini NASDAQ-100 index futures rebounded on Wednesday following a session defined by major weakness in technology stocks. Major tech shares rebounded in early trading. Apple and Tesla gained about 1% each after falling 3.5% and 1.7% respectively on Tuesday.

At 10:48 GMT, June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 13613.75, up 77.75 or +0.57%.

On Tuesday, investors exited technology and growth stocks, pushing the cash market NASDAQ Composite down 1.9%. Along with losses in Apple and Tesla, shares of Netflix lost 1.2%, and Microsoft dropped 1.6%. Amazon and Facebook shed 2.2% and 1.3%, respectively. Alphabet fell 1.6%.

Daily June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The trend turned down on Tuesday when sellers took out the previous swing bottom at 13700.50. The main trend will change to up on a move through 14064.00.

The short-term range is 12609.75 to 14064.00. Its retracement zone at 13336.75 to 13165.25 is the first downside target.

The main range is 12200.00 to 14064.00. Its retracement zone at 13132.00 to 12912.00 is the major downside target area.

The retracement zones combine to form a potential support cluster at 13165.25 to 13132.00. We’re likely to see a technical bounce on the first test of this area.

The minor range is 14064.00 to 13380.75. Its retracement zone at 13722.50 to 13803.00 is the primary upside target. Since the main trend is down, sellers are likely to come in on a test of this zone.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The early inside trading range suggests investor indecision and impending volatility. In other words, we could be looking a two-sided trade on Wednesday. We’re going to use yesterday’s close at 13536.00 as our pivot.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 13536 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a test of 13722.50 to 13803.00. Since the main trend is down, sellers are likely to come in on a move into this retracement zone. Overcoming 13803.00 will be a sign of strength.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 13536.00 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into yesterday’s low at 13380.75, followed closely by a 50% level at 13336.75.

If 13336.75 fails as support then we could see an acceleration into the price cluster at 13165.25 to 13132.00. Aggressive counter trend buyers could come in on a test of this area.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

FTSE 100 Jumps on Boost from Miners, Banks; Croda Shines

By Devik Jain

The blue-chip index rose 1.1%, with the speciality chemicals group’s shares gaining 2.6% after it announced a strategic review of two units that cater more to industrial customers as it shifts focus to consumer-care and life-sciences sectors.

Miners provided the biggest boost to the index tracking higher metal prices. Anglo American added 2.7%, after Citigroup raised its price target. [MET/L]

Barring Virgin money, all banks gained with NatWest Group and Barclays jumping more than 2% each.

The FTSE 100 has gained 7.8% so far this year as businesses reopened after the third lockdown and improving economic data coupled with speedy vaccine rollouts and government support pointed to a strong recovery from the pandemic crash last year.

However, concerns that central banks might put a lid on their policies as economies reopen and inflation rises has kept FTSE 100 in a tight trading range recently.

“The fact remains the economic data is only likely to improve, and any by-product of that is likely to mean the prospect of either tighter monetary policy rates in one shape or another, at some point, with the only question being one of timing.” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets.

All eyes are now on the Bank of England’s meeting on May 6 where it will likely slow its bond purchases.

The domestically-focused mid-cap FTSE 250 index advanced 0.5%.

Building materials supplier SIG gained 2.7% as it sees return to profitability in the first half of 2021, and forecast higher annual profit than previously expected.

British challenger bank Virgin Money slipped 4.7% after it posted higher than expected first-half costs of 460 mln pounds.

(Reporting by Devik Jain in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich and Krishna Chandra Eluri)

Hyatt Hotels Post Deeper Loss in Q1, Shares Fall

Hyatt Hotels Corporation, a leading global hospitality company, reported a bigger-than-expected loss for the fifth consecutive time in the first quarter of this year, reflecting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and worldwide travel restrictions.

The U.S. hotel operator said its net loss attributable was $304 million, or $2.99 per diluted share, in the quarter ended March 31, 2021, compared to a net loss attributable to Hyatt of $103 million, or $1.02 per diluted share, in the first quarter of 2020.

Adjusted net loss attributable was $363 million, or $3.57 per diluted share, in the first quarter of 2021, compared to Adjusted net loss attributable to Hyatt of $35 million, or $0.35 per diluted share, in the first quarter of 2020. That was worse than Wall Street’s consensus estimates of -$1.33 per share.

The Chicago-based company said its comparable owned and leased hotels RevPAR decreased 64.4% compared to the first quarter of 2020.

Following the disappointing results, Hyatt shares fell 1.56% to $80.68 on Tuesday. The stock rose over 8% so far this year.

Analyst Comments

“Expect a positive reaction to Hyatt’s (H) 1Q21 beat. Rising trends in the United States and the greater China region, which drove outperformance, are likely to accelerate through 2022 while Europe has been a laggard on vaccine distribution. What remains is an acceleration in urban, business transient and group business, which could provide another phase of the recovery,” noted David Katz, equity analyst at Jefferies.

Hyatt Stock Price Forecast

Eleven analysts who offered stock ratings for Hyatt in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months of $60.00 with a high forecast of $71.00 and a low forecast of $52.00.

The average price target represents a 7.50% increase from the last price of $55.82. Of those 11 analysts, eight rated “Buy”, three rated “Hold” while none rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley gave the base target price of $61 with a high of $107 under a bull scenario and $31 under the worst-case scenario. The firm gave an “Equal-weight” rating on the hospitality company’s stock.

“Higher owned exposure suggests risk given the spread of COVID-19 and greater operating leverage. However, Hyatt has lower financial leverage than peers. Higher exposure to increasing new supply and alternative accommodations given more gateway city exposure than peers (e.g., 8% NYC exposure vs. MAR 4% and HLT 3%) puts RevPAR growth at risk,” noted Thomas Allen, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“Potential ability to monetize assets at attractive multiples could create value. Limited float / large insider ownership means constant discount, despite attractive M+F business.”

Several other analysts have also updated their stock outlook. BofA Global Research raised the price objective to $85 from $80. Evercore ISI lifted the target price to $95 from $90. Citigroup increased the price target to $90 from $80. Baird upped the target price to $72 from $63. Jefferies raised the target price to $85 from $75.

Check out FX Empire’s earnings calendar

European Equities: Private Sector PMIs and ADP Nonfarm Figures in Focus

Economic Calendar:

Wednesday, 5th May 2021

Spanish Services PMI (Apr)

Italian Services PMI (Apr)

French Services PMI (Apr) Final

German Services PMI (Apr) Final

Eurozone Markit Composite PMI (Apr) Final

Eurozone Services PMI (Apr) Final

Thursday, 6th May 2021

German Factory Orders (MoM) (Mar)

IHS Markit Construction PMI (Apr)

Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)

Friday, 7th May 2021

German Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)

German Trade Balance (Mar)

ECB President Lagarde Speech

The Majors

It was a particularly bearish day for the European majors on Tuesday. The DAX30 slid by 2.49%, with the CAC40 and the EuroStoxx600 ending the day down by 0.89% and by 1.43% respectively.

With no material stats from the Eurozone to provide direction on the day, a tech sector sell-off weighed on the European majors. Following Monday’s pullback, the NASDAQ continued to fall back on Tuesday, dragging tech stocks in Europe into the red.

News of anticipated supply shortages in the auto sector weighed heavily on the DAX30 in particular, with the auto sector joining tech stocks in the deep red.

The Stats

It was a particularly quiet day on the economic calendar, with no material stats from the Eurozone to provide direction.

From the U.S

It was a relatively busy day, with factory orders and trade data for March in focus late in the European session.

Factory orders increased by 1.1%, following a 0.5% decline in February. Economists had forecast a 1.3% rise.

The trade deficit widened from $70.4bn to $74.4bn in March. Economists had forecast a widening to $74.50bn.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a particularly bearish day for the auto sector on Tuesday. Daimler tumbled by 5.20%, with BMW and Volkswagen sliding by 3.08% and by 3.94% respectively. Continental saw a more modest 1.03% loss on the day.

It was another mixed day for the banks. Deutsche Bank slid by a further 2.49%, while Commerzbank ended the day up by 0.52%.

From the CAC, it was a bearish day for the banks. Soc Gen slid by 2.23%, with BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole falling by 0.77% and by 1.15% respectively.

It was also a bearish day for the French auto sector. Stellantis NV and Renault ended the day with losses of 0.52% and 2.02% respectively.

Air France-KLM fell by 1.19%, with Airbus SE sliding by 3.18%.

On the VIX Index

It was back into the green for the VIX on Tuesday, marking a 3rd rise in 4-sessions.

Reversing a 1.61% fall from Monday, the VIX rose by 6.39% to end the day at 19.48.

The NASDAQ and the S&P500 fell by 1.88% and by 0.67% respectively, while the Dow eked out a 0.06% gain.

VIX 050521 Monthly Chart

The Day Ahead

It’s a busy day ahead on the European economic calendar. Key stats include service sector PMIs from Italy and Spain. Finalized numbers for Germany, France, and the Eurozone are also due out.

Barring any marked revisions from prelim figures, Italy and the Eurozone’s PMIs will draw the greatest interest.

From the U.S, ADP nonfarm employment change and the market’s favored ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will also influence later in the day.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was up by 61 points, with the DAX up by 117 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Investment Firm KKR Tops Earnings Estimates; Target Price $60

U.S.-based investment firm KKR & Co reported better-than-expected earnings in the first quarter of 2021, largely driven by a higher level of carried interest and an increase in transaction and management fees.

The company that manages multiple alternative asset classes said its after-tax distributable earnings rose 63% year-over-year to $660 million, or adjusted $0.75 per share, up from $406.3 million seen in the same period a year ago. That was higher than Wall Street’s expectations of $0.62 per share.

The company, which was formerly known as Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co, said its Assets Under Management (AUM) increased to $367 billion, up 77% year-over-year, with $15 billion of organic new capital raised in the quarter and $51 billion for the LTM period. The acquisition of Global Atlantic contributed $98 billion in 1Q’21.

KKR shares surged more than 38% so far this year. At the time of writing, the stock traded nearly flat at $56.09.

Analyst Comments

“Fee-related earnings of $364M compared to 1Q20 of $258M with transaction fees of $166M vs $98M y/y. The performance fee business recorded +$61M net of compensation which compared to +$138M in the prior-year period. Investment income, which reflects the balance sheet activities, totaled $392M vs. $128M in 1Q20. Ultimately, KKR generated +$660M of after-tax distributable earnings ($0.75/share) and declared a $0.145 dividend in the quarter,” noted Gerald E. O’Hara, equity analyst at Jefferies.

KKR Stock Price Forecast

Eleven analysts who offered stock ratings for KKR in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months of $60.00 with a high forecast of $71.00 and a low forecast of $52.00.

The average price target represents a 7.50% increase from the last price of $55.82. Of those 11 analysts, eight rated “Buy”, three rated “Hold” while none rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley gave the base target price of $60 with a high of $92 under a bull scenario and $22 under the worst-case scenario. The firm gave an “Equal-weight” rating on the investment firm’s stock.

Several other analysts have also updated their stock outlook. KKR & Co. Inc. had its price objective lifted by Deutsche Bank to $52 from $47. They currently have a hold rating on the asset manager’s stock. BMO Capital Markets boosted their target price to $71 from $69. Credit Suisse Group boosted their target price to $60 from $53 and gave the company a neutral rating.

Analyst Comments

“Strong near-term growth with fundraising supercycle and GA accretion coming into earnings, but we see this reflected in the price at the current valuation for a more capital-intensive business model,” noted Michael Cyprys, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“While strong investment performance could drive upward estimate revisions, we have less visibility on more episodic investment income gains. Mgmt’s increased focus on expanding the platform with adjacent strategies and scaling successor funds should drive higher fee-related earnings (FRE).”

Upside and Downside Risks

Risks to Upside: 1) Faster deployment with greater opportunity set. 2) Accelerated portfolio exit activity. 3) Stronger fundraising boosted by seeding of new strategies. 4) Large Insurance M&A – highlighted by Morgan Stanley.

Risks to Downside: 1) Volatile markets leading to weaker investment returns, balance sheet markdowns and delays harvesting of investments pressuring earnings. 2) Increased political and regulatory scrutiny of PE business model.

Check out FX Empire’s earnings calendar