Johnson & Johnson Completes Breakout Pattern

Dow component Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is trading higher by 1% in Wednesday’s pre-market session after beating Q2 2021 top and bottom line estimates and raising fiscal year 2021 guidance. The pharmaceutical and home health care giant earned $2.48 per-share during the quarter, $0.19 better than expectations, while revenue rose an impressive 27.1% year-over-year to $23.31 billion, nearly $800 million higher than consensus.

Fighting Off Bad Press

The company dealt with a wave of misinformation about the Janssen vaccine and potential for side effects in the first half of the year. The negative news flow has damped sales, with just 13 million doses administered to date, compared to around 330 million for Pfizer Inc. (PFE) and Moderna Corp. (MRNA).  Even so, quarterly product sales grew 10% and these controversies aren’t the tipping point for the $447 billion mega cap with 2.63 billion shares outstanding.

Johnson & Johnson faces a bigger challenge with ongoing talcum powder and opiate litigation.  It’s just finalized a $26 billion opioid settlement with more than 40 states and may attempt to “rope off” potential talc exposure into a separate entity that can be taken through bankruptcy proceedings. However, that could be a hard sell for U.S. courts flipping through the balance sheet of the 12th largest publicly traded corporation.

Wall Street and Technical Outlook

Wall Street consensus hasn’t budged in 2021 despite front page headlines, with an ‘Overweight’ rating based upon 12 ‘Buy’, 3 ‘Overweight’, 4 ‘Hold’, and 1 ‘Underweight’ recommendation. Price targets currently range from a low of $160 to a Street-high $203 while the stock is set to open Wednesday’s session about $18 below the median $188 target. Strong price action so far in 2021 suggests that gains will stretch into the median target by year’s end.

Johnson & Johnson broke out above February 2020 resistance near 150 in January 2021, entering a strong uptrend that posted an all-time high at 173.65 a few weeks later. Price action since that time has carved the outline of a bullish ascending triangle pattern that forecasts a measured move target in the 190s following a breakout. However, that event could take time to unfold because selling pressure in the last seven weeks has weakened an otherwise solid technical outlook.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Disclosure: the author held no positions in aforementioned securities at the time of publication. 

Why Moderna Stock Keeps Moving Higher

Moderna Shares Test All-Time High Levels

Moderna stock gained huge upside momentum after the stock was included into S&P 500 and continues to move higher. The stock, which has recently traded below the $240 level, is currently trying to settle above the $340 level, having gained more than 40% in just 5 trading sessions.

The recent market worries about the spread of the Delta variant of coronavirus served as an additional bullish catalyst for Moderna shares. Countries rush to secure new doses of vaccines which means that Moderna has good chances to get solid revenue in the upcoming years.

In a latest deal, Takeda Pharmaceutical agreed to supply 50 million does of Moderna’s vaccine to Japan. The extra doses could be supplied at the beginning of 2022. Similar deals may follow as more countries open up to the idea of booster doses, which is bullish for Moderna and other vaccine makers.

What’s Next For Moderna Stock?

Analyst estimates for Moderna’s earnings have not changed in recent days, and the stock is currently trading at almost 19 forward P/E for 2022, which is a major increase compared to 13 forward P/E which was seen at the end of June.

Valuation is getting stretched, and traders should keep in mind that the market does not have good earnings visibility beyond 2022 as the trajectory of the pandemic is not known.

The forced buying from index funds who purchase Moderna shares because they were included into S&P 500 will soon end, and this factor will be out of play.

Technically, RSI is in the extremely oversold territory, and the risks of a pullback are increasing day by day.

All in all, it looks that traders should be prepared for a pullback in Moderna shares due to both fundamental and technical factors. The company’s market capitalization has increased significantly without any increase in earnings estimates, and traders will soon begin to take some profits off the table after the major rally.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Moderna’s Shares Up By 8% After Addition to S&P 500

The shares of Moderna are rallying today after news emerged that the company would be included in the S&P 500, replacing Alexion Pharmaceuticals, which is being acquired by AstraZeneca (AZN).

Moderna To Enter The S&P 500

Biotech company Moderna is already popular throughout the globe after playing a key role in developing the Coronavirus vaccine. The company is set to get even more popular after it was announced that it would be included in the S&P 500 index.

Moderna is set to replace drugmaker Alexion Pharmaceuticals, which is expected to be acquired by Big Pharma giant AstraZeneca soon. S&P 500 said the changes would come into effect before the market opens by next Wednesday

The biotech company manufactures one of the three Covid-19 vaccines approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA). It is joined by Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX), who manufacturer a two-dose vaccine similar to Moderna’s. Meanwhile, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) offers a single-dose Covid shot.

Moderna’s Shares Are Rallying

The shares of Moderna have been rallying since the news broke that it would be joining the S&P 500. At the time of this writing, Moderna (MRNA) is up by 8% at Friday’s trading session and could soar higher over the coming hours.

MRNA stock chart. Source: FXEMPIRE

Year-to-date, Moderna’s stock price has gone up by nearly 175%, with the company now having a valuation of over $100 billion. Its addition to the S&P 500 means will see a wide range of passively managed funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that reflect the performance of the S&P 500 add the Moderna stock to its portfolio. This would increase the company’s exposure and allow more institutional investors to access it. This is the key reason why the stock has been performing excellently today.

With more vaccines needed globally to fight the pandemic, Moderna’s stock price could experience further gains over the coming months.

Why Moderna Stock Is Up By 9% Today

Moderna Stock Tests New Highs As It Is Included Into S&P 500

Moderna shares gained strong upside momentum and moved to new all-time high levels after the stock was included into S&P 500. Moderna would join S&P 500 on July 21 and replace Alexion Pharmaceuticals.

Inclusion into S&P 500 is a powerful catalyst for a stock as funds that follow the index are obliged to buy Moderna shares. In this light, it is not surprising to see that Moderna stock is up by 9% in just one trading session.

In addition, the spread of the Delta variant of coronavirus continues to serve as a bullish catalyst for vaccine makers. While health officials from U.S. and EU have recently stated that it was too early to talk about whether booster doses of COVID-19 vaccines would be needed, the market begins to price in the increased likelihood of significant revenue from COVID-19 vaccines in the upcoming years.

What’s Next For Moderna Stock?

As traders witnessed at the end of 2020 in the case of Tesla, an inclusion of a hot stock into S&P 500 can be a very significant upside catalyst. Speculative traders rush to buy such stocks as they know that funds that follow the index will be forced to buy shares at any price.

In Moderna’s case, the bullish thesis is supported by the challenging situation on the coronavirus front. WHO has recently announced that the world was in the early stage of the third wave of coronavirus which signals that demand for COVID-19 vaccines may be strong for years to come.

Interestingly, analyst estimates for Moderna’s earnings have declined in recent weeks. Currently, analysts expect that Moderna will report earnings of $24.57 per share in 2021 and earnings of $18.2 per share in 2022.

At current levels, the stock is trading at roughly 16 forward P/E which is more expensive compared to the recent levels as the stock price has increased materially in recent weeks while analyst estimates declined.

However, the inclusion into S&P 500 is a very strong positive factor, and Moderna’s shares have a decent chance to continue their upside move in the upcoming trading sessions.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Dollar Makes a Move

The Chinese composite PMI unexpectedly fell from 54.2 to 52.9 earlier this morning with details showing a stabilisation of the manufacturing gauge but a setback in the non-manufacturing reading. New restrictive measures in Gaundong to contain a regional Covid outbreak are mainly responsible for this with waning external demand contrasting with rising domestic orders.

Risk mood improved

Markets took comfort in Moderna saying that its vaccine is effective against the Delta variant of the virus with the S&P500 marginally higher and closing at all-time highs. The tech-laden Nasdaq also notched another record peak rising for a sixth day in seven with Facebook pulling back after hitting the magical $1 trillion market cap level. Also adding to more positive sentiment was the US Consumer confidence which jumped with a bounce both in expectations and the current situation.

The dollar went bid breaking out of its recent range and is heading towards the post-Fed highs.

In EUR/USD, this means we are trading below 1.19 again with eyes on the recent cycle lows at 1.1847.

With the monthly US labour market report out on Friday, focus will be on US ADP data today which will be monitored for any signs that private sector hiring has quickened. Although not a great predictor of the NFP headline number, a big beat or miss today can cause near-term volatility. Expectations are for a punchy 600k reading with many analysts hopeful that jobs data comes in strong going forward.

Eurozone inflation subdued

Consensus expects headline and core Eurozone inflation prints to remain relatively subdued at 1.9% y/y and 0.9% y/y respectively when the data is released this morning. Country figures already pointed to a slowdown and these are fairly tame readings compared to those elsewhere. With the outlook remaining muted, the ECB will continue to be one of the last remaining dovish central banks on the block.

Written on 30/06/2021 by Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM

For more information, please visit: FXTM


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Why Moderna Stock Is Up By 6% Today

Moderna Stock Rallies To New Highs Amid Concerns About Delta Variant Of Coronavirus

Shares of Moderna have set a new record as traders rushed to buy the company’s shares amid concerns about Delta variant of coronavirus.

The Delta variant has spread from India to many countries in the world, and some countries have already been forced to introduce new virus containment measures.

Delta is more infectious than the original strain of coronavirus, and even countries which had successful mass vaccination programs, like UK, have to deal with an increasing number of new COVID-19 cases.

It looks that people need to have a higher level of antibodies to protect themselves against Delta compared to the original strain, but the situation develops fast and any data on this matter is preliminary.

Investors have been previously concerned about future revenues of vaccine producers, but it looks that the world may need coronavirus vaccines for years to come which is bullish for Moderna.

What’s Next For Moderna Stock?

Analysts expect that Moderna will report earnings of $24.57 per share this year and earnings of $18.2 per share in the next year, so the stock is trading at 13 forward P/E.

It should be noted that analyst estimates have been trending lower in recent weeks, but problems with the Delta variant of coronavirus may push estimates for 2022 to higher levels.

The situation with coronavirus remains highly volatile and it is difficlut to make accurate predictions about the spread of the virus and the demand for vaccines. However, Moderna’s current valuation looks conservative even if we account for uncertainty, so the stock has decent chances to continue its upside move.

I’d also note that shares of vaccine makers may face an influx of money from traders who are searching to hedge their bullish bets on the general market since vaccine stocks will likely get an additional boost in case the situation with COVID-19 gets worse.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Is There a Next Housing Bubble That Will Make Gold Shine?

House prices are surging. As the chart below shows, the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index has reached 239 in February 2021, the highest number in history and about 30% higher than during the 2006 peak.

What’s more, the National Home Price Index has jumped 12% year-over-year in February , which is the highest annualized gain since January 2006 when the housing bubble started deflating as can be seen in the chart below. At the same time, inventory in many regions has hit record lows.

Not surprisingly, some analysts started to worry about the formation of the next housing bubble . The previous one led to the global financial crisis . However, at least some part of the recent increases can be explained by other factors than mere expectations of price increases, which characterizes a bubble.

The mortgage rates plunged thanks to the Fed’s zero-interest-rate policy and accommodative monetary policy . The easy fiscal policy with stimulus checks also added fuel to the fire, especially given that people couldn’t spend money on services, so they spent more on housing.

The demographic factors also helped to move prices up. Many Millennials have just entered the prime home-buying age, and the pandemic made a lot of people demand more space as they work remotely.

In other words, the recent surge in prices is likely a result of an imbalance between tight supply (that rises too slowly to meet booming demand fueled by low interest rates ) and income growth rather than an irrational exuberance. Furthermore, lending standards are also tighter now. Please take a look at the chart below, which shows the home price index vis-à-vis the GDP (presented also as an index).

As one can see, in the 2000s there was a clear, huge divergence between the pace of GDP growth and the pace of home prices’ appreciation that lasted a few years before the bubble burst. But since the end of the Great Recession , the growth in house prices was below the GDP growth. Therefore, I would say that there is no bubble in the housing market. Not yet, at least – house prices started to diverge from GDP growth during the pandemic recession …

Hence, it would be smart to monitor the housing market carefully. However, so far, gold bulls shouldn’t count on the housing bubble and its burst as important factor that could support the price of the yellow metal. Nevertheless, the recent ultra-low real interest rates and high inflation should support both: gold and houses . After all, they are both hard assets sensitive to interest rates and are being eagerly bought during inflationary periods.

More importantly, despite the fact that it’s maybe too early to call the national bubble in the housing market (although some locations are really hot), in many markets there are bubble-like conditions. Just think about soaring stock market indices reaching one record after another. Or negative-yielding bonds worth about $18 trillion. Or surging used car prices that have just hit an all-time high. Or lumber that has become America’s hottest commodity.

Or Dogecoin, a cryptocurrency that was created as a joke. It has gained about 8,500% this year, despite the recent sell-off in the cryptocurrency market. As a popular tweet commented on this, “Moderna created a lifesaving vaccine in record time and is worth $70 billion. Dogecoin became a meme and is worth $87 Billion.”

The widespread character of these price increases is the reason why some analysts refer to the “everything bubble”. It might be an exaggeration, but the scope of bubble-like conditions clearly shows that markets are awash in liquidity. All this new money supply and excess liquidity simply entered the economy, exerting inflationary pressure across the board and boosting mainly risk assets.

Indeed, there is inflation, but still mainly in the asset markets, not in the consumer sphere. However, this is changing, as the April CPI reading has clearly indicated. Producer/commodity inflation could advance into the next stage in which consumer prices are also generally increasing. Inflated asset valuations and rising prices of goods suggest that caution is warranted, and it would be smart to allocate some portion of the investment portfolio toward gold.

The bottom line is that the global expansion will continue, which is bad for gold. However, the growth is fueled by excessive liquidity and ultra-low interest rates, which also creates inflationary pressure and bubble-like conditions. Gold could be supported by all this – it may even thrive if inflation turns out to be higher and more lasting than it’s widely believed.

Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD
Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

 

Why Moderna Stock Is Up By 10% Today

Moderna Video 07.06.21.

Moderna Stock Rallies As Company Seeks Approval For The Use Of Its Vaccine In Teens

Shares of Moderna gained additional upside momentum and moved to new yearly highs after the company submitted applications to EU and Canada’s regulators for authorization of the expanded use of its COVID-19 vaccine in teens.

The company wants to file for an emergency use authorization in various countires for the use of its vaccine in people aged 12 to 17.

As vaccination process continues, the focus slowly shifts from high-risk groups to the rest of population in developed countries. Vaccination of teens aged 12 – 17 could be an important step to get back to normal during the next school year, so Moderna is about to enter another important market segment.

What’s Next For Moderna?

Analyst estimates for Moderna’s earnings continue to rise week after week. Currently, analysts expect that Moderna will report earnings of $25.31 per share in 2021 and $18.65 per share in 2022.

This means that the stock is trading at 12 forward P/E for 2022 despite the strong upside move that took the company’s shares from $105 at the start of this year to the current levels near $225.

Moderna remains cheaply valued by modern standards, but the discount could be explained by lack of earnings visibility. It is obvious that Moderna will have a great 2021. The next year also looks good, especially in case Moderna gets approval for the use of its vaccine in teens. Judging by recent trading action, the market believes that the company should have no problems on this front.

However, it’s hard to predict Moderna’s performance in 2023 – 2024 as it will depend on the development of the coronavirus pandemic and demand for vaccination. At this point, vaccination programs in less developed countries are progressing slowly, which means that demand for vaccines will remain strong in the next few years. Such demand will likely get financial support from international institutions as the world needs to eliminate the pandemic and destroy virus’ chances for new mutations. This scenario is bullish for Moderna shares.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Top Scientists Question the Need for COVID-19 Booster Shots

By Julie Steenhuysen and Kate Kelland

In interviews with Reuters, more than a dozen influential infectious disease and vaccine development experts said there is growing evidence that a first round of global vaccinations may offer enduring protection against the coronavirus and its most worrisome variants discovered to date.

Some of these scientists expressed concern that public expectations around COVID-19 boosters are being set by pharmaceutical executives rather than health specialists, although many agreed that preparing for such a need as a precaution was prudent.

They fear a push by wealthy nations for repeat vaccination as early as this year will deepen the divide with poorer countries that are struggling to buy vaccines and may take years to inoculate their citizens even once.

“We don’t see the data yet that would inform a decision about whether or not booster doses are needed,” said Kate O’Brien, director of the Department of Immunization, Vaccines and Biologicals at the World Health Organization (WHO).

O’Brien said the WHO is forming a panel of experts to assess all variant and vaccine efficacy data and recommend changes to vaccination programs as needed.

Pfizer Inc Chief Executive Albert Bourla has said people will “likely” need a booster dose of the company’s vaccine every 12 months – similar to an annual flu shot – to maintain high levels of immunity against the original SARS-CoV-2 virus and its variants.

“There is zero, and I mean zero, evidence to suggest that that is the case,” countered Dr. Tom Frieden, former director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“It’s completely inappropriate to say that we’re likely to need an annual booster, because we have no idea what the likelihood of that is,” Frieden, who now leads the global public health initiative Resolve to Save Lives, said of Pfizer’s assertions on boosters.

Pfizer, responding to the criticism, said it expects a need for boosters while the virus is still circulating widely. That could change once the pandemic is more firmly under control, a company spokeswoman said.

Moderna Inc CEO Stephane Bancel aims to produce a vaccine by the fall that targets a variant first identified in South Africa and expects regular boosters will be needed.

The United States is preparing to have such doses on hand for Americans, while the European Union, Britain and Israel have ordered new supplies of COVID-19 vaccines to deploy as protective boosters.

Some health experts, including Richard Hatchett, chief executive of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) that has funded many vaccine projects, say vaccine makers are right to plan ahead for boosters given the uncertainty over what will be needed in the long run.

Governments can then decide for themselves whether to buy the products, he said.

“A LITTLE EVIDENCE”

Pfizer and German partner BioNTech SE have so far found that their shot remains more than 91% effective for six months after people received their second dose, compared with nearly 95% demonstrated in their clinical trial. The companies will track how robust the protection remains over time.

Dr. William Gruber, Pfizer’s senior vice president of vaccine clinical research and development, told Reuters earlier this month the prediction for yearly boosters was based on “a little evidence” of a decline in immunity over those six months.

Pfizer expects the COVID-19 vaccine to be a major revenue contributor for years, and has forecast sales of $26 billion from the shot in 2021. Global spending on COVID-19 vaccines and booster shots could total $157 billion through 2025, according to U.S. health data firm IQVIA Holdings.

Moderna President Stephen Hoge expects boosters will be needed to keep immunity levels high, due in part to vaccine hesitancy, as an estimated 30% of the U.S. population may not agree to be vaccinated. As long as the virus is circulating widely, people at high risk of severe illness may need to boost their immune protection, Hoge said.

“All governments are in conversations with (Moderna) and other companies about boosters,” he said.

BROADER IMMUNITY?

Late last year, scientists were optimistic that highly effective vaccines could quickly curb the global pandemic that has battered economies and killed more than 3.4 million people.

Those hopes dimmed by February with evidence that mutant versions of the virus might evade protection offered by vaccines. Laboratory studies showed that the South African variant could produce six to eight-fold reductions in antibody levels among people vaccinated with the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines.

Clinical trial data also showed that vaccines from AstraZeneca Plc, Johnson & Johnson and Novavax Inc were less effective at preventing infections in South Africa, where the variant is widespread.

These studies spurred drug companies to start testing booster doses of their vaccines and to develop shots that target specific variants of the virus.

However, more recent research suggests that the Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines produce high levels of protective antibodies to create a “cushion effect” against the known variants, said Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and a top White House adviser.

And antibodies – which block the coronavirus from attaching to human cells – do not tell the whole story. Several studies suggest that T cells – a type of white blood cell that can target and destroy already infected cells – may help prevent severe COVID-19 and hospitalization.

NIAID researchers found that T cells in the blood of people who recovered from the original virus could still fight off infections caused by the concerning variants found in the UK, South Africa and Brazil.

“It’s quite possible” that boosters would not be needed, Fauci told Reuters. “It is conceivable that the variants will not be as much a problem with a really good vaccine as we might have anticipated.”

Nevertheless, health authorities in the United States, Britain and Europe are assuring their populations that a new round of shots will be available if needed, with many nations still desperate for vaccine supplies.

“It’s a huge concern that … wealthy countries would begin administering booster doses and further constraining supply of people’s first dose of vaccine,” said Rajeev Venkayya, head of global vaccines for Takeda Pharmaceutical Co.

Dr. Monica Gandhi, an infectious disease doctor at the University of California, San Francisco, said ultimately, decisions on whether boosters will be needed “will best be made by public health experts, rather than CEOs of a company who may benefit financially.”

(Reporting by Julie Steenhuysen in Chicago and Kate Kelland in London; Additional reporting by Michael Erman in Maplewood, N.J.; Editing by Michele Gershberg and Bill Berkrot)

Why Shares Of Moderna Are Down By 5% Today?

Moderna Video 06.05.21.

Moderna Stock Moves Lower As Q1 Revenue Misses Estimates

Shares of Moderna found themselves under pressure after the company released its first-quarter results.

Moderna reported revenue of $1.94 billion and earnings of $2.84 per share, beating analyst estimates on earnings and missing them on revenue. It looks that the market was not ready to tolerate the revenue miss, and it weighed heavily on Moderna stock.

The bar was set high for the company whose shares were up by more than 60% year-to-date before the release of the quarterly report. In addition, shares of  vaccine makers found themselves under pressure after U.S. signaled that it would support a waiver for vaccine IP rights at the WTO.

EU has already stated that it was ready to discuss waving COVID-19 vaccines patents, which is a worrisome development for investors. At the same time, it remains to be seen whether any decisions will be made in the near term.

What’s Next For Moderna?

The sell-off in Moderna shares was triggered by IP waiver-related fears and a revenue miss. IP waiver-related fears probably served as the main catalyst for the current sell-off as other vaccine makers like BioNTech and Pfizer also found themselves under pressure.

Currently, analysts expect that Moderna will report earnings of $23.27 per share in 2021 and $16.58 per share in 2022 so the stock is trading at about 9 forward P/E for 2022 which is very cheap in today’s market environment.

However, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding future profits, and recent discussions about waiving IP rights add another layer of uncertainty. At the same time, it looks increasingly likely that at least some part of the vaccine revenue will be recurring as people may need regular shots to protect themselves against COVID-19.

In this light, Moderna shares may soon attract speculative traders and investors who will want to use the current pullback as an opportunity to buy the stock at lower levels.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Will Earnings Season Bring Volatility To The Stock Market?

The Commerce Department last week reported that the U.S. economy grew at a +6.4% annual rate in the first quarter, slightly below estimates but still strong. If it would have come in real hot and much higher bears would have pointed to fanning the inflation flames even further.

This mindset of “bad-news-could-be-good-news” is helping to keep the stock market at or near all-time highs. If economic data somewhat disappoints it means the Fed stay dovish and accommodative for longer.

Fundamental analysis

That might be important to keep in mind as April data starting this week is expected to be extremely good. The April Employment Report is due next Friday and with upper-end of Wall Street estimates look for upwards of +1 million new jobs being added. Other key April data next week includes the ISM Manufacturing Index on Monday, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index on Wednesday.

employment

If the data comes in better than expected the bears will win the nearby battle and have the upper hand when talking higher inflation and the Fed perhaps tightening sooner than anticipated. So this week could be a bit tricky whereas “disappointing-data” could actually be digested as a win for the bulls and “strong data” a win for the bears.

The earnings calendar is packed again next week with big names including Activision Blizzard, Adidas, AllState, Cerner, Cigna, CVS, Dominion Energy, Enbridge, Etsy, Hilton Worldwide, Moderna, Monster Beverage, Nintendo, PayPal, Peloton, Pfizer, Rocket Companies, Square, TMobile, Wayfair, and Zoetis.

COVID-19

Checking in on U.S. progress against Covid-19, the number of adults that have received at least one dose is around 60%-65%, depending on the source. Global cases continue to rise led by India, where new infections have been hitting new record highs every day for weeks now. The country reported a staggering 380k new infections and 3,645 new deaths on Thursday while less than 10% of the population has been vaccinated.

Bottom line, the global restart will not be synchronized like many bulls had hoped would be the case and global growth may continue to struggle. At the moment the U.S. market doesn’t seem to care. It will be interesting to see if increasing inflation and continued global headwinds will eventually come home to roost.

SP500 technical analysis

SP500 earnings season

Earnings season can bring volatility to the stock market. At the beginning of May, cycles turn to the downside. Note, this is only a timing tool and it never shows the amplitude or strength of the move. When cycles are topping, it means we can expect a move down or choppy trading. This is it.

But relying on cycles only is not a good idea. Insider Accumulation Index shows bearish divergence on a daily chart. At the same time, Advanced Decline Line is still strong. The key resistance is around 4250 at the moment. I believe earning season can bring a profit booking to the stock market. If that happens, watch 4000 – 39500. It was a massive resistance and now it might turn into support. Intermarket Forecast is neutral. But if it turns to the downside, we will finally see a pullback in SP500.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Earnings to Watch Next Week: ON Semiconductor, Ferrari, General Motors and Moderna in Focus

Earnings Calendar For The Week Of May 3

Monday (May 3)

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: ON SEMICONDUCTOR

ON Semiconductor, a semiconductors supplier company, is expected to report its first-quarter earnings of $0.34 per share, which represents year-over-year growth of over 240% from $0.10 per share seen in the same quarter a year ago.

The Phoenix, Arizona-based company’s revenue would grow over 14% to $1.4 billion.

“The company is the only one in our coverage to see weaker gross margins cycle to cycle. Notably, this is happening despite an improvement in end-market mix toward industrial and autos and away from consumer and computing, where ON has become more selective in recent quarters,” noted Craig Hettenbach, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“We like the message from the new CEO of improving mix of the business but think this has already been reflected in meaningful multiple expansion in the stock. Another thing to consider is the potential for lost revenue as the company deemphasizes some products.”

TAKE A LOOK AT OUR EARNINGS CALENDAR FOR THE FULL RELEASES FOR THE MAY 3

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
ENBL Enable Midstream Partners $0.17
EL Estée Lauder $1.28
WEC Wisconsin Energy $1.47
EPD Enterprise Products Partners $0.50
ON ON Semiconductor $0.34
ITRI Itron $0.40
ALXN Alexion Pharmaceuticals $3.08
L Loews $0.95
CNA CNA Financial $0.95
EPRT Essential Properties Realty Trust Inc $0.29
VRNS Varonis Systems -$0.13
QGEN Qiagen $0.63
RMBS Rambus $0.28
WWD Woodward $0.82
REGI Renewable Energy $0.20
IRBT Irobot $0.06
SCI Service International $0.98
ITUB Itau Unibanco $0.12
FN Fabrinet $1.15
CAR Avis Budget -$2.38
JKHY Jack Henry Associates $0.86
O Realty Ome $0.85
BRX Brixmor Property $0.40
UE Urban Edge Properties $0.22
AWK American Water Works $0.73
NSP Insperity $1.56
APO Apollo Global Management $0.59
RBC Regal Beloit Corporation $1.68
ADC Agree Realty $0.83
CR Crane $1.31
OGS One Gas $1.78
CHGG Chegg $0.31
CVI CVR Energy -$1.23
OHI Omega Healthcare Investors $0.82
XPO XPO Logistics $0.93
FLS Flowserve $0.20
CBT Cabot $0.97
LEG Leggett & Platt $0.41
FANG Diamondback Energy $1.89
SHO Sunstone Hotel Investors -$0.15
KMT Kennametal $0.21
SEDG Solaredge Technologies Inc $1.01
VNO Vornado Realty $0.63
WMB Williams Companies $0.28
AWR American States Water $0.48
MWA Mueller Water Products $0.14
MOS Mosaic $0.50
CC Chemours Co $0.68
LGND Ligand Pharmaceuticals $1.05
CORT Corcept Therapeutics $0.21
CIB Bancolombia $0.34
SANM Sanmina $0.82
EGOV NIC $0.24
AMG Affiliated Managers $4.24

Tuesday (May 4)

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: FERRARI

Ferrari, an Italian luxury sports car manufacturer, is expected to report its first-quarter earnings of $1.26 per share, which represents year-over-year growth of over 27% from $0.99 per share seen in the same quarter a year ago.

The company which is known for its prancing horse logo would post revenue growth of more than 24% to around $1.27 billion

“We find the long-term stability of Ferrari’s revenue, addressable market growth, expansive profit margin, and solid returns on invested capital throughout economic cycles to be compelling reasons to invest at the right price,” noted Richard Hilgert, senior equity analyst at Morningstar.

“Because of its exclusive clientele of high-net-worth individuals, we believe the company will show resiliency during periods of economic uncertainty, such is currently the case with the coronavirus pandemic. While we are not entirely averse to paying up for stocks like Ferrari that possess a wide economic moat and stable economic profits through business cycles, we think Ferrari stock will regularly trade at rich, luxury goods valuation multiples.”

TAKE A LOOK AT OUR EARNINGS CALENDAR FOR THE FULL RELEASES FOR THE MAY 4

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
ARNC Arconic Inc $0.29
CMI Cummins $3.46
CVS CVS Health $1.71
MPLX MPLX $0.61
PFE Pfizer $0.79
SYY Sysco $0.20
TRI Thomson Reuters USA $0.40
MPC Marathon Petroleum -$0.72
NS NuStar Energy $0.28
BR Broadridge Financial Solutions $1.67
ETRN Equitrans Midstream Corp $0.19
DD DuPont $0.77
LDOS Leidos $1.49
D Dominion Resources $1.08
EXPD Expeditors International Of Washington $1.00
RACE Ferrari $1.26
LPX Louisiana Pacific $2.67
CVLT Commvault Systems $0.49
ZBH ZIMMER BIOMET HDG. $1.51
UAA Under Armour Inc $0.04
XYL Xylem $0.37
UA Under Armour C share $0.04
INGR Ingredion $1.62
SEE Sealed Air $0.71
INCY YTE $0.65
BERY Berry Plastics $1.31
LGIH LGI Homes $2.37
BG Bunge $1.55
PCRX Pacira $0.58
RGEN Repligen $0.43
VSH Vishay Intertechnology $0.45
LANC Lancaster Colony $1.26
CTLT Catalent $0.76
KKR KKR & Co LP $0.62
CWH Camping World Holdings $0.54
RHP Ryman Hospitality Properties -$0.78
AME Ametek $1.02
WLK Westlake Chemical $1.56
IAA IAA Inc $0.46
VMC Vulcan Materials $0.41
GPN Global Payments $1.77
IPGP IPG Photonics $1.07
HSIC Henry Schein $0.83
IT Gartner $1.01
CRL Charles River Laboratories $2.19
HEP Holly Energy Partners $0.48
NXST Nexstar Broadcasting $3.11
MLM Martin Marietta Materials $0.51
LAMR Lamar Advertising $1.17
IDXX Idexx Laboratories $1.72
FSS Federal Signal $0.33
MIC Macquarie Infrastructure $0.48
NNN National Retail Properties $0.64
SABR Sabre -$0.51
MYGN Myriad Genetics -$0.10
BEN Franklin Resources $0.74
ZBRA Zebra Technologies $4.41
COP ConocoPhillips $0.57
ETN Eaton $1.25
HI Hillenbrand $0.92
CMP Compass Minerals International $0.72
VRSK Verisk Analytics $1.25
JBGS JBG SMITH Properties $0.31
LYFT Lyft Inc -$0.54
AMCR Amcor PLC $0.18
LSI LIFE STORAGE $1.01
STAG STAG Industrial $0.48
XP XP Inc $0.20
RPAI Retail Properties Of America $0.20
OUT Outfront Media -$0.17
MANT ManTech International $0.83
MED Medifast $2.72
PAYC Paycom Software $1.42
AKAM Akamai $1.30
LSCC Lattice Semiconductor $0.19
ARWR Arrowhead Research $0.34
AFG American Financial $1.74
TTEC TeleTech $1.00
ANET Arista Networks $2.38
GMED Globus Medical $0.36
INSP Inspire Medical Systems Inc -$0.65
ENLC EnLink Midstream -$0.02
IOSP Innospec $1.02
PVG Pretium Resources $0.21
HLF Herbalife $1.06
RDN Radian $0.67
TMUS T-Mobile Us $0.53
ESE ESCO Technologies $0.55
HST Host Hotels & Resorts -$0.15
PKI PerkinElmer $3.03
BKH Black Hills $1.60
ATVI Activision Blizzard $0.69
XLNX Xilinx $0.75
WTS Watts Water Technologies $0.98
AMRC Ameresco $0.10
CZR Caesars Entertainment -$1.77
MCY Mercury General $1.25
MRCY Mercury Systems $0.63
CPK Chesapeake Utilities $1.83
AIZ Assurant $1.96
LPSN LivePerson -$0.14
DOOR Masonite International $1.78
PXD Pioneer Natural Resources $1.82
EQC Equity Commonwealth $0.01
PEAK Healthpeak Properties Inc $0.39
DVN Devon Energy $0.35
RNG RingCentral $0.25
EPAY Bottomline Technologies $0.27
MTCH Match Group $0.46
JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals $3.69
PRU Prudential Financial $2.68
NMIH NMI $0.59
DLB Dolby Laboratories $0.67
HASI Hannon Armstrong Sustnbl Infrstr Cap $0.40
MPWR Monolithic Power Systems $1.33
H Hyatt Hotels -$1.33
WU Western Union $0.45
DEI Douglas Emmett $0.43
EXAS Exact Sciences -$1.04
ALGT Allegiant Travel -$2.59
PTCT PTC Therapeutics -$1.59
Z Zillow $0.26
NRZ New Residential Investment $0.34
LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc $1.42
SU Suncor Energy USA $0.44
MELI MercadoLibre $0.40
HAE Haemonetics $0.67
TDG TransDigm $2.52
IOVA Iovance Biotherapeutics -$0.48
QTRX Quanterix -$0.32
VST Victory Square Tech -$2.04
GRFS Grifolsbarcelona $0.23
BBD Banco Bradesco $0.11
CHT Chunghwa Telecom $0.33

Wednesday (May 5)

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: GENERAL MOTORS

The auto manufacturer is expected to report its first-quarter earnings of $1.02 per share, which represents year-over-year growth of over 64% from $0.62 per share seen in the same quarter a year ago. The Detroit, Michigan-based company would post revenue growth of about 2% to around $33.3 billion.

“We are Overweight based on GM’s diversified portfolio, with multiple ways for GM to enhance shareholder value, through: EVs, ICE and Autonomy. GM also has leading North American margins, generates strong cash flow, and has a robust balance sheet,” noted Adam Jonas, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“We believe that the market is underestimating the SOTP of the GM enterprise via: 1) Legacy ICE, 2) GM EV, 3) GM’s Ultium Battery business, 4) China JVs, 5) GM Finco, 6) GM Cruise, 7) hidden franchise value in brands such as Corvette and 8) GM Connected Services. GM management has a proven track record to allocate capital away from structurally challenged areas towards re-positioning the business model.”

TAKE A LOOK AT OUR EARNINGS CALENDAR FOR THE FULL RELEASES FOR THE MAY 5

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
UTHR United Therapeutics $2.60
HLT Hilton Worldwide $0.05
PNW Pinnacle West Capital $0.28
CERN Cerner $0.74
HFC HollyFrontier -$0.45
ODP Office Depot $1.02
AEIS Advanced Energy Industries $1.27
OMI Owens Minor $0.97
DNB Dun & Bradstreet $0.21
SMG Scotts Miracle-Gro $5.51
DOC Physicians Realty $0.27
WRK WESTROCK $0.62
GOLD Randgold Resources $0.26
TT Trane Technologies PLC $0.62
CIM Chimera Investment $0.31
SRE Sempra Energy $2.60
NYT New York Times $0.15
AVA Avista $0.85
ROCK Gibraltar Industries $0.61
SPR Spirit AeroSystems -$0.93
PEG Public Service $1.12
BWA Borgwarner $0.92
GM General Motors $1.02
JLL Jones Lang LaSalle $0.58
SBGI Sinclair -$2.18
EMR Emerson Electric $0.90
NI NiSource $0.77
ABC AmerisourceBergen $2.50
BRKR Bruker $0.32
FUN Cedar Fair -$1.89
IONS Ionis Pharmaceuticals -$0.47
EXC Exelon $0.42
WAT Waters $1.57
CDW CDW $1.54
CRTO Criteo $0.50
CLH Clean Harbors $0.26
HZNP Horizon Pharma $0.19
SPWR SunPower $0.00
FLEX Flextronics International $0.36
BKNG Booking Holdings Inc -$7.26
QLYS Qualys $0.69
ATO Atmos Energy $2.05
ALL Allstate $3.85
GIL Gildan Activewear USA $0.20
KLIC Kulicke And Soffa Industries $1.20
PTVE Pactiv Evergreen $0.03
LNC Lincoln National $1.48
TTGT TechTarget $0.37
RLJ RLJ Lodging -$0.26
ADPT Adeptus Health -$0.41
PRI Primerica $2.38
ZNGA Zynga $0.09
UNM Unum $1.01
HPP Hudson Pacific Properties $0.46
RUN Sunrun Inc -$0.03
WTRG Essential Utilities Inc $0.66
EPR EPR Properties $0.44
FLT Fleetcor Technologies $2.70
QRVO Qorvo $2.44
UGI UGI $1.72
CDAY Ceridian HCM Holding Inc $0.09
CW Curtiss-Wright $1.30
FMC FMC $1.52
CTSH Cognizant Technology Solutions $0.94
SIMO Silicon Motion Technology $0.94
AEL American Equity Investment Life $0.59
ANSS Ansys $0.85
MET MetLife $1.48
XEC Cimarex Energy $1.70
VAC Marriottacations Worldwide -$0.29
SRC Spirit Realty Capital New $0.73
TNDM Tandem Diabetes Care -$0.15
SJI South Jersey Industries $1.19
EQT EQT $0.28
ETSY ETSY Inc $0.84
MFC Manulife Financial USA $0.59
NBIX Neurocrine Biosciences $0.46
CCMP Cabot Microelectronics $1.94
EQH AXA Equitable Holdings Inc $1.23
MRO Marathon Oil $0.14
CF CF Industries $0.57
STN Stantec USA $0.42
RYN Rayonier $0.08
RSG Republic Services $0.86
FRT Federal Realty Investment $1.02
PDCE PDC Energy $0.83
PYPL PayPal $1.01
BFAM Bright Horizons Family Solutions $0.10
BE Bloom Energy Corp -$0.08
LBTYA Liberty Global Class A Ordinary Shares $0.09
HR Healthcare Realty $0.42
MTG MGIC Investment $0.42
NUVA NuVasive $0.33
ALB Albemarle $0.79
STAA STAAR Surgical $0.02
CPA Copa -$2.21
NUS Nu Skin Enterprises $0.72
TWO Two Harbors Investment $0.21
ACAD Acadia Pharmaceuticals -$0.54
RCII Rent-A-Center $1.11
LOPE Grand Canyon Education $1.67
ORA Ormat Technologies $0.40
KW Kennedy Wilson $0.27
LHCG LHC $1.26
SLF Sun Life Financial USA $1.08
FOXA Twenty-First Century Fox $0.57
FNV Franco Nevada $0.79
QTWO Q2 $0.07
UBER Uber -$0.56
SBRA Sabra Health Care Reit $0.40
RKT Rocket Cos. Inc. $0.89
MDU MDU Resources $0.20
TRMB Trimble Navigation $0.56
GDOT Green Dot $0.93
APA Apache $0.69
HUBG HUB $0.46
KAI Kadant $1.36
SBH Sally Beauty $0.16
BCH Banco De Chile $0.40
DAR Darling Ingredients $0.56
RARE Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical -$1.25
TRNO Terreno Realty $0.39
CCU Compania Cervecerias Unidas $0.32
CENTA Central Garden Pet $1.08
RCKT Rocket Pharma -$0.77
CUB Cubic $0.41
AVNS Avanos Medical Inc $0.18
FMS Fresenius Medical Care $0.45
UGP Ultrapar Participacoes $0.04
ELP Companhia Paranaense De Energia $0.03
LBTYK LIBERTY GLOBAL $0.09
FOX Twenty First Century Fox $0.58
NVO Novo Nordisk A Fs $0.79
BAK Braskem $1.38
AEBZY Anadolu Efes ADR $0.01
OMVJF OMV $0.97
SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics -$2.01
VIV Telefonica Brasil $0.13
ES Eversource Energy $1.10
GBT BMTC Group -$1.02

Thursday (May 6)

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: MODERNA

Moderna Inc, an American biotech company focused on drug discovery, is expected to report its first-quarter earnings of $2.36 per share, up about 700% from the same quarter a year ago. The Massachusetts-based biotechnology company’s revenue would surge to $1.97 billion.

“We are Equal-weight Moderna. While we believe there is long-term upside for Moderna, we believe the significant valuation increase associated with the success of the COVID-19 vaccine limits the near-term upside,” noted Matthew Harrison, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“The company has taken an industrialized approach to developing mRNA-based therapeutics and has rapidly generated a broad pipeline of 21 programs, 11 of which have entered clinical development. We believe Moderna’s mRNA drug development platform is more diversified and scalable compared with competitors and is validated through broad partnerships with Merck and AstraZeneca. We see vaccines and rare diseases as the key valuation drivers of the company.”

TAKE A LOOK AT OUR EARNINGS CALENDAR FOR THE FULL RELEASES FOR THE MAY 6

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
PZZA Papa John’s International $0.55
AY Atlantica Yield -$0.13
SUN Sunoco $0.69
TECH Bio Techne $1.50
ZTS Zoetis $1.04
EPAM EPAM Systems $1.69
APTV Aptiv PLC $0.77
MGA Magna International USA $1.59
VER VEREIT $0.78
WCC Wesco International $0.76
BUD Anheuser-Busch $0.48
IRM Iron Mountain $0.64
LIN Linde PLC $2.26
BDX Becton, Dickinson and Co. $3.04
AES AES $0.31
BLD TopBuild Corp $1.93
HWM Howmet Aerospace Inc $0.20
BIP Brookfield Infrastructure $0.87
PENN Penn National Gaming $0.28
K Kellogg $0.95
PWR Quanta Services $0.74
BLL Ball $0.67
STWD Starwood Property $0.51
SEAS SeaWorld Entertainment -$0.83
CNP CenterPoint Energy $0.50
ALE Allete $1.11
WD Walker & Dunlop $2.01
COMM CommScope $0.31
PRLB Proto Labs $0.37
VG Vonage $0.05
AMRS Amyris -$0.16
BKI Black Iron Inc. $0.51
PBH Prestige Brands $0.79
W Wayfair Inc. $0.27
REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals $8.79
NSIT Insights $1.44
FIS Fidelity National Information Services $1.25
TRGP Targa Resources $0.15
EVOP EVO Payments Inc $0.12
CNQ Canadian Natural Resource USA $0.67
MUR Murphy Oil -$0.16
XRAY Dentsply International $0.55
IDCC InterDigital -$0.01
EVRG Evergy Inc $0.47
CAH Cardinal Health $1.57
EPC Edgewell Personal Care $0.62
THS TreeHouse Foods $0.35
STOR STORE Capital Corp $0.45
HAIN Hain Celestial $0.38
ADNT Adient PLC $0.59
MT Arcelormittal $1.57
OGE OGE Energy $0.18
NJR New Jersey Resources $1.17
MRNA Moderna Inc $2.36
BCRX BioCryst Pharmaceuticals -$0.26
FOCS Focus Financial Partners Inc $0.86
HII Huntington Ingalls Industries $2.52
IIVI Ii Vi $0.88
TPR Tapestry Inc $0.30
ARW Arrow Electronics $2.27
BLDR Builders Firstsource $0.81
INSM Insmed -$1.02
BECN Beacon Roofing Supply $0.01
NWSA News Corp $0.06
XLRN Acceleron Pharma -$0.83
QDEL Quidel $4.87
IHRT Iheartmedia -$0.44
AL Air Lease $1.01
Y Alleghany $4.65
AVLR Avalara Inc -$0.11
ALTR ALTAIR ENGINEERING $0.20
SEM Select Medical $0.65
CGNX Cognex $0.35
LYV Live Nation Entertainment -$1.77
TDC Teradata $0.46
CABO Cable One Inc $10.22
KWR Quaker Chemical $1.51
APLE Apple Hospitality $0.03
CLNE Clean Energy Fuels $0.01
ICUI ICU Medical $1.53
MCHP Microchip Technology $1.74
MTX Minerals Technologies $1.07
PTON Peloton Interactive, Inc. -$0.11
ANGI Angie’s List -$0.04
ENV Envestnet $0.61
CDK Cdk Global $0.68
REG Regency Centers $0.75
AIG AIG $0.99
SQ Square $0.16
MSI Motorola Solutions Msi $1.62
RVLV Revolve $0.13
SFM Sprouts Farmers Market $0.62
OLED Universal Display $0.67
PODD Insulet $0.06
AMH American Homes 4 Rent $0.31
PK Park Hotels & Resorts Inc -$0.55
EXPE Expedia -$2.52
TRIP TripAdvisor -$0.31
LNT Alliant Energy $0.67
FOXF Fox Factory $0.82
HTA Healthcare Of America $0.43
EXEL Exelixis $0.05
POST Post $0.55
CSOD Cornerstone OnDemand $0.42
SYNA Synaptics $1.87
ED Consolidated Edison $1.36
DBX Dropbox $0.30
IRTC iRhythm Tech -$0.87
DRH DiamondRock Hospitality -$0.14
MCK McKesson $5.01
YELP Yelp -$0.26
DIOD Diodes $0.78
CWK Cushman & Wakefield plc -$0.04
RGA Reinsurance Of America $0.07
STMP Stamps $1.63
EOG EOG Resources $1.50
BAP Credicorp USA $2.37
AAON AAON $0.24
MTD Mettler Toledo International $5.65
PCTY Paylocity $0.66
BCC Boise Cascade $2.50
NFG National Fuel Gas $1.21
MTZ MasTec $0.77
TPL Texas Pacific Land $5.77
FNF Fidelity National Financial $1.28
PHI Philippine Long Distance Telephone $0.61
NWS News $0.05
CYRX Cryoport Inc -$0.21
PPL PPL $0.61
NRG NRG Energy $1.64
NKTR Nektar Therapeutics -$0.75
GLUU Glu Mobile $0.07
PLUG Plug Power -$0.08
MNST Monster Beverage $0.61
NTLA Intellia Therapeutics Inc -$0.66
CTRE CareTrust REIT $0.36
ADT ADT $0.15
ARNA Arena Pharmaceuticals -$2.19
SWX Southwest Gas $1.83
MIDD Middleby $1.63
MRTX Mirati Therapeutics -$2.13
JOBS 51job $0.43
PFSI Pennymac Financial Services $5.79
KRTX Karuna Therapeutics -$1.06
MGEE Mge Energy $0.81
ITCI Intra Cellular Therapies -$0.81
XNCR Xencor -$0.77
SATS EchoStar -$0.02
DRNA Dicerna Pharmaceuticals -$0.28
IGMS IGM Biosciences -$0.98
RVNC Revance Therapeutics -$1.19
PAR Par Technology -$0.37
ACIW ACI Worldwide -$0.12
AG First Majestic Silver $0.07
ING Ing Groep $0.23
GFI Gold Fields $0.64
ABEV Ambev $0.03
AGO Assured Guaranty $0.56
MMS Maximus $0.82

Friday (May 7)

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
CI Cigna $4.37
VTR Ventas $0.02
LEA Lear $2.95
MD Mednax $0.16
AMCX AMC Networks $2.01
ENB Enbridge USA $0.57
CCJ Cameco USA -$0.08
TRP Transcanada USA $0.87
LBRDK Liberty Broadband Lbrdk $1.10
SPB Spectrum Brands $0.99
LBRDA Liberty Broadband $0.85
ITT ITT $0.87
FLR Fluor New $0.04
ESNT Essent $1.22
UNVR Univar Solutions Inc $0.32
HE Hawaiian Electric Industries $0.36
RICOY Ricoh Company -$0.08
IBP Installed Building Products $1.04
TU Telus USA $0.23
SSUMY Sumitomo ADR -$0.02
CNK Cinemark -$1.47
CVE Cenovus Energy USA -$0.02
LXP Lexington Realty $0.03

 

Why Shares Of Moderna Are Up By 7% Today?

Moderna Video 13.04.21.

Moderna Says That Its Vaccine Is Not Linked To Rare Blood Clots

Shares of Moderna gained solid upside momentum after the company stated that available safety data on its coronavirus vaccine did not suggest an association with cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) or thrombotic events. More than 64.5 million doses of Moderna’s vaccine have been administered globally.

Moderna decided to issue this statement after U.S. recommended to pause the use of Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine as six women developed blood clots after receiving the vaccine. Previously, AstraZeneca faced problems with rare blood clots, and some countries decided to limit the use of the company’s vaccine.

While blood clots appear to be a very rare side effect (more than 6.8 million doses of Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine have been administered in the U.S., and only six cases of blood clots potentially linked to vaccine have been reported so far), Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine will surely suffer a PR blow.

This is a negative development for the mass vaccination program but a positive development for Moderna which may gain additional market share due to problems of AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson.

What’s Next For Moderna?

The bull case for Moderna is getting stronger. Its coronavirus vaccine has avoided any notable problems, and the company’s shares stand ready to gain from the problems of its competitors.

Currently, analysts expect that the company will report earnings of $21.85 per share in 2021 and $14.87 per share in 2022 so the stock is trading at about 10 forward P/E for 2022.

However, it is not clear whether revenue from the coronavirus vaccine will be recurring. If data suggests that people will need regular vaccinations, like in the case of an ordinary flu, Moderna shares will look very cheap at current levels.

In the near term, Moderna stock will likely continue to benefit from Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca problems.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Why Moderna Stock Is Up By 7% Today?

Moderna Video 16.03.21.

Moderna Shares Move Higher As Company Starts Trial Of COVID-19 Vaccine In Children

Moderna shares gained strong upside momentum and are gaining 7% in today’s trading session after the company stated that it began to test its coronavirus vaccine in children. The study will include children aged from 6 months to 12 years.

Yesterday, the company stated that it had initiated a trial of its next COVID-19 vaccine candidate which should be stable in refrigerators. This is important because less developed countries do not have the resources to store vaccines at very low temperatures. If a vaccine is stable in refrigerators, it will be able to gain additional market share.

In addition to positive internal news, Moderna stock is supported by the current troubles of AstraZeneca‘s vaccine. Germany, France, Italy and several other European countries suspended the use of AstraZeneca’s vaccine amid concerns that the vaccine can provoke serious side effects in rare cases.

The World Health Organization promised to issue a statement on the topic by the end of the day, but it is clear that the political decision to stop inoculations in many European countries has already been made. This situation presents an opportunity for other vaccine providers to gain market share.

What’s Next For Moderna?

Moderna shares have pulled back from recent highs near the $190 level but managed to find support near $120 and are currently trying to settle above $150. The stock remains very volatile which is not surprising for shares of a biotechnology company that produces one of the world’s leading vaccines against coronavirus.

The key question for the valuation of all COVID-19 vaccine makers is whether the revenue from vaccines will be recurring in case the population will have to take the vaccine periodically, for example, every year.

Analysts are optimistic about the company’s financial performance and expect that Moderna will earn $21.96 per share in 2021 and $14.93 per share in 2022. At current prices, the stock is trading at about 10 forward P/E for 2022 which is cheap, but analyst estimates vary widely, highlighting uncertainty regarding the company’s future performance.

That said, AstraZeneca’s problems in combination with Moderna’s internal positive catalysts may provide additional upside for the company’s shares despite high uncertainty about its future profits.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Moderna Begins Study of COVID-19 Vaccine in Kids

The study will assess the safety and effectiveness of two doses of mRNA-1273 given 28 days apart and intends to enroll about 6,750 children in the United States and Canada.

The vaccine has already been authorized for emergency use in Americans who are aged 18 and older.

In a separate study which began in December, Moderna is also testing mRNA-1273 in adolescents between 12 and 18 years old.

The latest study is being conducted in collaboration with the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA).

(Reporting by Manojna Maddipatla in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh Kuber)

Kremlin Says Pressure on Countries to Reject Russia’s Sputnik V Vaccine is Unprecedented

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov made the remarks when asked to comment on a U.S. government report which appeared to show that the United States had tried to dissuade Brazil from buying Sputnik V.

The report, published on the website of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), detailed the work of the U.S. Office of Global Affairs (OGA) in “combating malign influences in the Americas”.

The report outlined the agency’s diplomatic efforts to counter what it described as attempts by countries, including Russia, to increase their influence in the region, to the detriment of U.S. safety and security.

“Examples include using OGA’s Health Attache office to persuade Brazil to reject the Russian COVID-19 vaccine,” the government report said.

Kremlin spokesman Peskov declined to comment specifically on the report but said Russia was against politicizing the situation around vaccines.

“In many countries the scale of pressure is quite unprecedented … such selfish attempts to force countries to abandon any vaccines have no prospects,” he said.

“We believe that there should be as many doses of vaccines as possible so that all countries, including the poorest, have the opportunity to stop the pandemic,” Peskov said.

The U.S. Embassy in Moscow referred a request for comment to the U.S. Department of State. The department did not immediately respond.

(Reporting by Dmitry Antonov; writing by Alexander Marrow and Polina Ivanova; editing by Andrew Osborn and Philippa Fletcher)

Moderna Rallies to Resistance

Moderna Inc. (MRNA) consolidated under 50-day moving average resistance in Monday’s pre-market session, trading more than 50 points below the euphoric Feb. 8 all-time high at 189.26. The stock has lost ground since hitting that peak and failing a breakout above the December high, dropping into intermediate support in the 130s. Long-term relative strength oscillators now suggest vulnerability into the 110s.

Long-Term Cash Flow

Even so, their SARS-2 vaccine looks like the Tesla Inc. (TSLA) of COVID-19 treatments, potentially signaling years or decades of strong revenue growth through boosters and new biohazards. Moderna added to that bullish theme last week, announcing the first doses in a study evaluating booster candidates targeting the South African variant. The research and eventual dosage fees should prove lucrative if these pathogens follow the path of influenza and other SARS outbreaks.

The biotech juggernaut touted the current vaccine’s efficacy with the SA variant in their press release, noting “Previously published data has shown that vaccination with the Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine produced neutralizing titers against all key variants tested, including B.1.1.7, first identified in the UK, and B.1.351, with a 6-fold reduction in neutralizing titers against B.1.351. Out of an abundance of caution, Moderna is pursuing a clinical development strategy against these emerging variants.”

Wall Street and Technical Outlook

Wall Street consensus has eased since massive upgrades following the March 2020 lockdown, with an ‘Overweight’ rating based upon 7 ‘Buy’,  5 ‘Hold’, and 1 ‘Underweight’ recommendation. Two analysts now recommended that shareholders close positions and move to the sidelines. Price targets currently range from a low of just $80 to a Street-high $208 while the stock is set to open Monday’s U.S. session more than $40 below the median $182 target.

Moderna cleared 2019 resistance around 30 in April 2020 and took off in an historic uptrend that settled in the upper 80s in May. A November breakout lost momentum above 175, giving way to a pullback to 20-day moving average support, followed by a failed February breakout attempt. The stock is now pulling back once again, carving the next stage in a trading range that could persist well through the second quarter.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Disclosure: the author held no positions in aforementioned securities at the time of publication.

Moderna Testing New COVID-19 Vaccine as Potential Booster Shot

The company said its new candidate, mRNA-1283, could potentially be stored in refrigerators instead of freezers, making it easier to distribute, especially in developing countries.

The early-stage study will assess the safety and immunogenicity of mRNA-1283 at three dose levels, and will be given to healthy adults either as a single dose or in two doses 28 days apart, the company said.

Last week, Moderna began dosing the first participants in a study testing its COVID-19 booster vaccine candidates.

(Reporting by Manojna Maddipatla and Vishwadha Chander in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh Kuber and Anil D’Silva)

Italy’s Health Minister Expects COVID Cases to Start Falling in Late Spring

Italy, the first Western country hit hard by the pandemic, saw infections rise by 10% last week compared with the week earlier, and officials have warned that the situation is deteriorating as highly contagious variants gain ground.

“The application of more rigorous measures and the progressive rise in the number of vaccinated people make us think that already in the second half of spring (contagion) numbers will be improving,” Health Minister Roberto Speranza told daily la Repubblica in an interview.

He added that the coming weeks “would not be at all easy”.

The UK variant represented 54% of cases in the latest study by Italy’s Superior Health Institute, ISS, but the percentage was expected to be higher now, the minister added.

On Friday the government imposed a nationwide lockdown over the Easter holidays and placed curbs on business and movement on most of Italy.

Speranza said vaccines in Italy and Europe were “effective and safe”, with all checks being carried out, answering a question on Italy’s ban of the AstraZeneca vaccine.

Italy’s medicine authority Aifa on Thursday banned the use of one batch of the vaccine. Sources told Reuters the decision had been taken after the deaths of two men in Sicily. Aifa said earlier that the ban was a “precautionary” measure, adding that no link had been established between the vaccine and subsequent “serious adverse events.”

Italy on Saturday released its national vaccination plan, aiming to vaccinate at least 80% of its population by the end of September and administer 500,000 doses a day at full capacity.

Speranza said that Italy is expecting the delivery of 52 million doses in the second quarter of the year and that the vaccination campaign would be accelerated even with further supply delays.

So far, 6.6 million Italians have received at least one vaccine dose, with just under 2 million of them having received the required 2 doses, health ministry data shows.

(Reporting by Giulia Segreti; Editing by Nick Macfie)

Gold Futures Lag Far Behind the Other Three Precious Metals in Trading Today

However, at the same time, the three other precious metals that trade on the futures exchange gained value. Silver futures gained $0.19 (+0.70%) in trading today and are currently fixed at $26.625. Platinum futures gained $6.20 (+0.52%) and are currently fixed at $1191.50. Lastly, palladium futures gained $33 (+1.43%) and remained the most expensive of the precious metals complex at $2346.50.

gld 31

si 31

pl 31

pa march 1

The most reasonable explanation for why gold continues to underperform when valued against the other three precious metals that are traded on the futures complex is that gold has the least industrial usage when compared to platinum, palladium, and silver. That fact, coupled with the strong rally in U.S. equities markets today, is at the root of why three precious white metals have been consistently outperforming gold recently. It was another strong showing in all three major indexes, with the Dow Jones industrial average gaining 603 points (+1.95%), the Standard & Poor’s gained 90.67 points (+2.38%), and the NASDAQ composite gaining 398 points (+3.010%).

While it has been recent gains in Treasury yields that led to the strong selling pressure witnessed in gold last week, the primary factor moving equities higher and gold pricing lower is data that suggests that the economy in the United States is gaining momentum that is resulting in a rally in stocks on the first trading day of March.

As reported in MarketWatch, Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors, said, “Increasingly, it appears that the economy sidestepped a feared hard-landing despite a period of soft consumer spending that contributed to negative conditions for parts of the service sector and a surge in layoffs. If anything, it appears that manufacturers may have benefited from consumer spending habits that favored goods over services in recent months.”

One recent development has been the emergency use approval by the CDC of the Johnson & Johnson one shot coronavirus vaccine, which was greenlighted by the FDA last week. In fact, J&J began shipping their vaccine today, beginning with four 4 million doses. While not as effective as the other two primary vaccines granted emergency use (Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna), the J&J vaccine is stable when stored in a refrigerator for three months and requires only one shot. Many medical professionals believe that this potentially could be key to the rural areas of the United States, which makes it difficult to ship and store the other vaccines at subzero temperatures.

These developments, when coupled with the passage in the Congress last week of President Biden’s $1.9 trillion aid package, have has shifted market sentiment towards the risk-on asset class rather than the safe-haven assets.

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Wishing you, as always, good trading and good health,

Gary S. Wagner