EURUSD Steady Ahead of US-China ‘Phase One’ Trade Deal

In the last full trading week of 2019, the Euro gained around 0.8% against the Greenback as the Dollar lost ground against major currencies, after US President Donald Trump announced the date for the US-China phase one trade deal. Given how the long-awaited trade agreement between the countries will be signed on January 15, this is certainly a welcome development for financial markets. Despite the lack of details on what are the terms that will be included into the phase one agreement, investors remain cautiously optimistic over the deal easing tensions between the two largest economies in the world.

Trade deal optimism boosted risk sentiment, ultimately pushing global equity markets to record highs as investors shifted their focus to higher-risk assets. The Dollar Index reached its lowest level in six-month below 96.80 on Tuesday. Although Euro lost around 2% against the US Dollar in 2019 due to US-China trade uncertainty, domestic risks in Europe and Brexit, the currency has displayed resilience over the past four months. With the European Central Bank maintaining an accommodative monetary policy to stimulate inflation, investors will keep a close eye on inflation data throughout 2020. Euro Area inflation rate was confirmed at 1.0% in November 2019 with markets projecting consumer prices to jump 1.2% in December.

On the technical side, EURUSD on the 4-Hour timeframe has been following an uptrend since 20 December. The price jumped above the key level of 1.12000 and registered the highest level of period under study at 1.12402 on December31. As of writing, the price is hovering around 1.2232 with positive MACD and Momentum above the 100 level. The price is currently trading above the 50 period simple moving average with RSI above 50 which supports the recent bullish price movement. Resistance level lies at 1.12402 while the support level lies at 1.10648. Bulls are trying to keep the price above 1.12000, but a close below the psychological level of 1.12000 could strengthen the argument for bearish movement.

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The Return of the Traders: Dollar offered some stability

The Dollar index’s post-Christmas slide appears to be halted at 96.0 for the time being, as the DXY bounced off that psychological level to currently trade around 96.2. Still, more Dollar moderation could be in store if risk appetite shifts into higher gear on the back of a faster global economic rebound. However, given that the Federal Reserve is not expected to lower US interest rates further this year, that should gradually knock the wind out of the Dollar bears’ sails.

Safe haven gains halted as Dollar finds floor

Despite the risk-on environment, Gold and the Japanese Yen have certainly benefitted from the Dollar’s decline, gaining 3.6 percent and 0.8 percent respectively in December. After those year-end gains, Bullion appears to be settling around the $1520 mark for the time being, while the Yen’s gains have been capped at the 108.5 support level versus the US Dollar.

The market action suggests that it’s been a Dollar-driven theme that’s played out in these assets over recent weeks. Investors are now questioning whether this upward trend has run its course, considering that conventional wisdom calls for declines in safe haven assets amid heightened risk appetite. Safe haven assets are expected to adjust further as investors restore market volumes to normalcy.

Brent slides back below $67/bbl

Oil bulls have found it hard to justify the case for keeping Brent above the psychological $67/bbl level. With the Dollar pausing its decline in the meantime, Oil is lacking the catalyst for another push higher. From a fundamental perspective, investors will be closely monitoring OPEC’s decision on whether to prolong its output cuts past March 2020, amid hopes that global demand can stage enough of recovery and stop the world from tilting into oversupplied conditions.

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Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.

2019 – A year Defined by Trade Wars, Brexit, Lower Interest Rates and Record Stocks

Investors charged into the trading year with a renewed sense of confidence after the Federal Reserve signalled further increases in US interest rates during the final weeks of 2018. However, market players across the globe were left empty-handed in January after the Federal Reserve executed one of its sharpest policy U-turns in recent memory. Not only were interest rates left unchanged at 2.5%, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell also expressed concerns over slowing growth in China and Europe, trade tensions, Brexit and the federal government shutdown. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones gained more than 7% in January despite the Fed’s caution. Those marked the biggest gains since January 1987.

In February, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned governments to gear up for a possible economic storm as growth falls short of expectations. Rising fears over trade tensions and tariffs, financial tightening, uncertainty related to Brexit and spillover impact from China’s slowdown prompted the IMF to lower its global economic growth forecasts for 2019 from 3.7% to 3.5%. A highly anticipated summit between Donald Trump and the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un also ended without an agreement this month – ultimately hitting risk sentiment.

Risk aversion made an unwelcome return in March as global recession fears sent investors rushing towards bonds and safe-haven assets while stocks tumbled. The Treasury yield curve inverted for the first time since the last financial crisis which triggered fears of an impending global recession and looser monetary policy. The S&P 500 concluded march gaining only 1% while Gold struggled to benefit from the risk-off sentiment, ending the month on a muted note.

Oil was under the spotlight in April after the Trump administration announced it will no longer grant sanction waivers to any country that imported Iranian Oil. The prospects of 1 million barrels per day being wiped off the markets sent Oil prices surging to a fresh 2019 high above $66.50. The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged at -0.4% but warned of ‘risks’ to eurozone growth.

Donald Trump escalated the trade war with China in May by announcing plans to hike the tariff imposed on $200 billion of Chinese goods from 10% to 25%. China wasted no time retaliating by imposing new tariffs on $60 billion of US import. The tit-for-tat trade war fuelled concerns over slowing global growth and weighed heavily on investor sentiment. In the United Kingdom, the Brexit drama reached new heights after Theresa May announced she will step down as Conservative party leader on June 7, essentially paving the way for a leadership contest inside the party.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates the first time in more than a decade in July, as it tried to keep America’s record-long economic expansion going by shielding the economy from mounting global risks. This move by the Fed opened the path for other central banks across the world to ease monetary policy in the face of slowing global growth. Trade uncertainty also forced the IMF to cut its growth forecast for the global economy for 2019 and 2020. It predicted growth of 3.2% in 2019, down from its April forecast of 3.3%.

Global markets tumbled around the world in August after Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on $300bn (£247.6bn) of Chinese goods. The risk aversion boosted appetite for safe-haven assets with Gold concluding the month 5.2% higher above $1440.

In September, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates a second time as a safety net against geopolitical risks, trade tensions and slowing global growth. The central bank also cut interest rates for the third time in October. The European Union also agreed to extend the Brexit deadline to January 31.

December was a monumental month for financial markets as the UK general elections and US tariff deadline left investors on edge. A landslide Conservative win in the general election on December 12 opened a near term path for Brexit while investors heaved a sigh of relief after Trump announced a ‘phase one’ deal. Despite the growing concerns and trade uncertainty, global equity markets performed well in 2019 with the S&P 500 gaining over 28% year to date.

As 2019 slowly comes to an end, investors may start pondering how US-China trade developments, Brexit and other geopolitical risk factors will influence financial markets in 2020. Will the new trading year be as volatile as 2019? This is a question on the mind of many market players.

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Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.

The Moving Average Spring Strategy, Simplified – Webinar Jan 08

Designed for both new and intermediate traders alike, this presentation will teach attendees how to use this popular strategy on MetaTrader 4 using a variety of time frames on both live and historical live charts. Theunis will also demonstrate how to define good entries and exits, and talk guests through the dangers of over-analysing. Don’t miss out on the chance to learn from the comfort of your own home! All the material presented in webinars from South Africa have been approved by the Company’s Key Individual, in accordance to FSCA guidelines.

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Lukman’s Week Ahead: Market themes to watch out for – Webinar Jan 13

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• What to monitor over the coming week

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Lukman Otunuga has been a Research Analyst at FXTM since 2015. A keen follower of macroeconomic events, with a strong professional and academic background in finance, Lukman is well versed in fundamental and technical analysis. His in-depth analysis on global currency and commodity markets is often cited by leading international media, including the Associated Press (AP), BBC, CNBC, CNN, Marketwatch, NASDAQ, and The Telegraph. He has also appeared on Africa’s biggest television network, NTA 2. Lukman holds a BSc (hons) degree in Economics from the University of Essex, UK and an MSc in Finance from London School of Business and Finance.

Greenback Falls in The Last Full Trading Day of 2019

  • Asian equities mixed as US indices ended last week on record highs
  • USD closes 2019 near where it started
  • Gold rallies despite improved risk appetite

Easing trade worries and less Brexit uncertainty were the two key components of December’s equity rally and investors are continuing to enjoy some festive cheer in the final trading days of the year.

Asian stocks were mixed today after the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at new record highs on Friday. The decision by the People’s Bank of China to use the loan prime rate as the new benchmark for pricing floating rate loans helped push Chinese stocks higher, while Japan’s Nikkei and Australia’s ASX 200 traded slightly lower.

US dollar falls for third consecutive day

The Dollar seems to be out of love as we approach the new year. The Dollar Index has fallen by more than 1% from last week’s high and 2.9% from its 2019 peak, sending it closer to where it started the year.

High beta currencies were the main beneficiaries given the improved economic outlook, in particular the Australian and New Zealand Dollar which are holding near their 5-month highs. The Euro also built on Friday’s rally to trade above 1.12, while Sterling has gained more than 200 pips from last week’s lows.

As fears of a global recession have dissipated and the manufacturing cycle looks to be heading for a U-turn in the first half of 2020, expect to see some rotation from the US into emerging and European markets. If this scenario plays out, expect the Dollar to remain under pressure for the next couple of weeks.

Gold benefits from Dollar weakness

In a classic risk-on environment, gold prices tend to fall but not this time. The precious metal is trading at 2-month highs today, mainly driven by the weakness in the Greenback.

Another factor contributing to the rally in gold is the US airstrikes carried out in Iraq and Syria against Iranian-backed groups. If geopolitical tensions increase in the Middle East, there will be more reasons for investors to increase their allocation in gold, otherwise the gold rally makes little sense while equities are making record highs.

Oil traders are also keeping a close eye on developments in the region, although prices received a boost from steep declines in US crude stocks.

Given that we are in holiday season, expect to see some exaggerated moves in currencies and commodities. Flash crashes also can’t be ruled out when liquidity is thin.

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Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.

FBS Shared The Highlights of 2019

Presence

This year, the company welcomed around 4 million new clients, expanding the overall presence to 14 million in 190 countries. Interesting fact: the last 2 years of the company’s history was a period of rapid growth when FBS’ client base has doubled. 2019 was also the anniversary year – FBS celebrated its 10th birthday and congratulated the clients with the B-Day promo with the prize pool of over $1,215,000.

Products

The company had a number of product releases and updates. Over the last 12 months, the broker released 2 new apps for trading: FBS – Mobile Personal area and FBS Trader.

The Mobile Personal area app was introduced as a mobile version of FBS Personal area packed with necessary trading information for Android and iOS.

FBS Trader trading app that allows clients to trade on the go using real-time stats was downloaded 452,000 times by the end of the year.

Along with introducing new products, FBS has been busy updating the existing ones. FBS CopyTrade app was updated 61 times – 35 for Android and 26 for iOS – and eventually got the Best Copy Trading Platform award at the end of the year.

Tools & Services

In 2019, FBS added the most popular stock market indices – NASDAQ and S&P 500 – to the list of its trading instruments, and also introduced the accounts in Japanese Yen.

Partnership

The company made a massive change to its partnership program this year. Now, there are two affiliate options – FBS Affiliate and FBS Introducing Broker – to provide partnership opportunities for different types of people.

As an FBS IB, one can bring clients and get up to $80 per lot, while FBS Affiliate is meant for web specialists who know how to monetize traffic. They can choose between 2 payment options: CPA (up to $130 per client CPA) and Revenue Share (up to 70% on spread commission), which is a very 2020 approach to partnership.

Promotions

FBS is famous for loads of various contests and promos, and 2019 wasn’t the exception. At the end of the year, it held the viral “Trip for Pip” promo quest game where the participants were supposed to earn points and get a chance to win a trip to one of the cities of choice. The winner chose Dubai, which he visited with his wife in December.

The annual “Ramadan” charity promo helped the company raise $241,221 for a number of charitable organizations in different countries. Other charitable activities included the monthly “Dreams Come True” promo where 12 people got their dearest wish fulfilled over the year, a special campaign in Laos, and more.

FBS is an international broker with more than 190 countries of presence, providing multi-asset financial and copy trading services. Besides, the broker offers a number of special services to make trading easier and more beneficial, such as swap-free and VPS services, cashback up to $15 per lot, and more.

RoboMarkets Launches Mobile Version of R Trader

As of now, the terminal offers the major functionality, which allows to perform trading operations: charts, account selection, position and account management, viewing history, and trading. One of the key features of the mobile version is high performance due to the implementation of cutting-edge software solutions, such as Angular technology.

Also, the Company improved the terminal’s updating algorithm, which will be barely noticed by clients and won’t distract them from trading in the future. In the short-term, RoboMarkets is planning to expand the capabilities of the mobile version due to the addition of new functionality.

The trading platform’s mobile version is available at https://rtrader.umstel.com/mobile.

Kiryl Kirychenka, the head of the R Trader project, is commenting: “Our mobile data is on a constant rise, that’s why we believe it’s logical enough in this situation to offer our clients the opportunity to trade through mobile devices with ease. R Trader mobile web terminal was developed based on Angular technology, which provides high speed and stability of the platform performance. From now on, it’s much faster and easier for traders to get prices, manage their investment portfolios, and place orders on their gadgets than ever before. In this release, we decided to go with the major functionality, which will surely be expanded in the future.”

About RoboMarkets

RoboMarkets is an investment company with the CySEC license No. 191/13. RoboMarkets offers investment services in many European countries by providing traders, who work on financial market, with access to its proprietary trading platforms. More detailed information about the Company’s products and activities can be found on the official website at www.robomarkets.com.

Santa Rally Set to Cap Stellar 2019

Risk appetite continues to remain supported by expectations surrounding the “phase one” US-China trade deal, which in turn is feeding gains for riskier assets. With US stocks already posting year-to-date gains of more than 20 percent, there could be more upside for equities before 2019 is over.

Year-end rally seen across asset classes

Rather uncharacteristically, even with the risk-on mood, safe haven assets such as Gold are gaining. At the time of writing, Bullion has now breached the $1490 psychological level for the first time in six weeks. Although Gold has climbed by more than 16 percent so far in 2019, the lingering concerns over the global economic outlook for next year could ensure that Bullion remains relatively elevated in the mid to upper $1400 levels through Q1 2020.

Dull Dollar a common theme throughout 2019

In contrast to the double-digit gains seen in other asset classes in 2019, the Dollar index (DXY) has seen a rather subdued but steady year, with a year-to-date advance of just 1.6 percent. On Christmas eve, the Dollar index is consolidating around the 97.3 level, once again showing its steadfast nature that it has exhibited all year long. Still, don’t be surprised if the expected risk-on sentiment over the coming months chips away at the Dollar’s resilience through the first quarter of 2020.

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Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.

Stock Markets Enter Holiday Mood After Massive Gains for the Year

  • Asian equities mixed as US indices ended last week on record highs
  • China announced it will lower tariffs on 850 products
  • Currency markets trading in tight ranges

Optimism over trade and improving economic activity sent US stocks to new record highs on Friday. The S&P 500 rose 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively.

President Trumps’ tweet on Friday that he had “a very good talk” with China’s President Xi concerning the trade deal contributed to the rally. along with better than anticipated consumer spending data, which showed that the main engine of the US economy remains in a healthy state.

The 2-year/10-year US Treasury yield curve has steepened the most since November 2018, indicating that investors are much more optimistic than they were several months ago.

The positive news continued to flow today with China’s finance ministry announcing that it will lower tariffs on more than 850 products, starting on January 1.

Historically, equities in the US climb in the final five trading days of the year in addition to the first two trading days of the new year, in what is termed a “Santa Rally”. Whether Santa will be generous enough this year remains to be seen. However, investors have had a phenomenal 2019 so far with the S&P 500 gaining 28.5% in what will be one of the best years in decades.

In currency markets, the Dollar retreated slightly against its major peers, but currencies overall are trading in very tight ranges. Nevertheless, traders need to be aware that low liquidity doesn’t prevent markets from shocks. For example, on January 3 this year, USDJPY plummeted almost 400 pips after Apple slashed its first-quarter guidance. When liquidity is thin, shock news can see highly volatile market moves.

This week, the data flow will slow, with only US personal consumption expenditure due on Friday expected to cause some volatility, if we get any surprises in the reading.

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Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.

2019 in a Nutshell and the Transit into a New Decade

If one is to describe the year 2019 in one word, we believe the word “uncertainty” would be the right fit. The world has entered 2019 with a high degree of uncertainty and is poised to finish the year with probably the same extent of uncertainties. The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index which is a GDP-weighted average of national EPU indices for 20 countries has remained in elevated levels in 2019.

Each national EPU index reflects the relative frequency of own-country newspaper articles that contain a trio of terms pertaining to the:

  • Economy (E)
  • Policy (P)
  • Uncertainty (U)

In simple words, the frequency at which newspapers cite “uncertainty” in relation to economic policy is high.

Source: Bloomberg Terminal

Sino-American Trade War

We have seen a de-escalation of trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies towards the end of the year. Investors grew hopeful that both countries will sign a partial trade deal. After weeks of speculations regarding the partial trade deal, “ a deal in principle” made headlines driving major US equity benchmarks to new highs. The optimistic statements in the US were not reciprocated to the same extent in China. It was a much muted and cautious response.

Any commitment and compliance from China remain murky.

The Trade Truce is being handed over to the financial markets like a Christmas gift. The real surprise will be unwrapping the gift and taking note of the details of the agreement. At the moment, vague promises and speculations are creating a “fragile” positive environment.

Uncertainties Persist! Phase One will ease but not eliminate uncertainties as Phase Two will handle challenging issues such as IT, Artificial Intelligence and cybersecurity and other hi-tech areas.

At CNBC’s Hadley Gamble at the Doha Forum, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s comments on Phase two was not inspiring:

“Phase Two maybe 2a, 2b, 2c, we’ll see….”

Populism and Globalisation

The growing prospect of populism comes with an array of uncertainties which is hard to ignore. President Trump’s presidency and Brexit are the bellwether of populism and have played a significant role in the recent volatility in the markets.

President Donald Trump

The Western political space is changing and is disrupting globalisation. The US President adopted a hard-line approach on not just trade, but also on migration and capital flows. The US has launched a trade war against major countries, some of which have been key allies of the US.

Brexit

Brexit Europe and the United Kingdom are practically on hold due to Brexit. The echoes of populism have threatened the existence of the bloc and have crippled its economy. Following the referendum for the UK to leave the European Union, the bloc’s members like Germany, Italy and France were also hit by several anti-establishment groups.

Hong Kong Protests

Hong Kong came to a standstill following months of democratic protests. The people of Hong Kong initially took to the streets to voice their frustrations on the extradition law. After the demonstrations intensified and turned violent, protesters laid five demands including an investigation into police brutality and the resignation of Chief Executive, Carrie Lam.

After more than six months of protests, economists are predicting a 1.3% contraction for 2019. The recent election resulted into an electoral win for pro-democracy parties which brought a semblance of normality after months of unrest.

Slowing Global Growth

Manufacturing Contraction

The manufacturing sector has been one of the main factors that had triggered concerns of a recession. In the US, the two widely- used indicators of the performance of the manufacturing industry are ISM and IHS Markit.

Both surveys consist of a diffusion that summarises whether the market conditions are expanding, staying the same, or contracting. Over the months, investors received mixed signals from both surveys. The divergence could partially be explained by the differences in the methodology used. Yet, the contrasting signals were noteworthy for investors.

As the year draws to an end, the preliminary Markit Manufacturing PMI figures for the US shows that it will be another month of steady growth fuelling hopes of a brighter start for 2020. On the other side, the ISM shows that the manufacturing industry has been softening for the past eight months and contracted for the fourth straight months at a faster rate.

Source: Institute for Supply Management

Interest Rates and Central Banks

Slowing global growth and recession fears have forced major central banks to cut interest rates to record lows. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand was among the first major central banker to commence a major easing cycle. After some resistance, the Fed and other central bankers has also cut their interest rates. The European Central Bank have even resumed the controversial quantitative easing to stimulate its economy.

Towards the end of the year, the concerns of slowing global growth have receded as global economic data has shown some signs that the downturn may be bottoming out. Central banks have paused the easing policies and appear less dovish when setting policies for 2020.

Stock Markets

A look at the performance of major global equity indices does not reflect the angst seen during the year. As of writing, the stock market is set to close the year on a strong note.

Two Digits Gains and Record Highs!

Chinese stocks have recovered strongly over the month. Despite a trade war, sanctions against public tech companies and slower economic growth, Chinese shares rallied. buoyed mainly by renewed optimism on the trade front.

Hong Kong Shares took a beating as months of protests have discouraged investment and compromised the country’s position as a financial hub. The US has also passed the bipartisan Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act that could strip the city of its special trading status following annual reviews of its democratic freedoms. As of writing, the Hang Seng index was up by only 7%.

FTSE100 was primarily driven by Brexit-related events. Towards the end of the year, the index has been trading sideways, but the majority win by the Conservative Party has pushed UK stocks higher. However, the possibility of a hard-Brexit has tamed the rally.

World Equity Indices (% Change)

Source: Bloomberg Terminal

As the year comes to an end, we are seeing the dominant risks – trade and Brexit that have rattled the markets over the months moving in a positive direction.

Energy Sector

The energy landscape is changing over the increased concerns on climate change. The rise of renewables is altering the dynamics of the industry. The “Greta effect” and various extreme weather conditions are constant reminders that the climate crisis is not going away and governments will be forced to adjust policies to tackle climate change.

As we move into a new decade, we see that the energy sector has been left behind. Looking at the different sector of the S&P500, energy emerged as the worst performer.

The oil and gas industry is facing a supply glut and decreasing demand at the same time. Saudi Aramco’s IPO which is one of the biggest IPO was launched as a local affair reiterating the struggle to entice international investors at a time where the oil market is facing structural headwinds.

The deeper production cuts by the OPEC members and allies and less geopolitical tensions are currently supporting a fragile oil market.

2020 will be the confirmation of a new era…

Investors are navigating in an environment with historically high levels of policy uncertainty. As we step into a new decade, market participants will be familiar with:

  • A new world of higher tariffs
  • Peak globalisation
  • Climate change
  • A probable tech war between the US and China
  • Commodities gluts
  • Historically low levels of interest rates.

2020 is probably not the year for a recession. In the last two months, investors have priced-out the recessions risks. The optimism is mostly based on positive trade-related comments, central banks intervention and expectations of steady interest rate in 2020.

Still, Uncertainties Remain and 2020 could be as volatile as 2019!

Deepta Bolaky, Market Analyst at GO Markets.

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About GO Markets

GO Markets was established in Australia in 2006 as a provider of online CFD trading services. For over a decade we have positioned ourselves as a firmly trusted and leading global regulated CFD provider. Traders can access more than 250 tradeable CFD instruments including Forex, Shares, Indices and Commodities.


Disclaimer: Articles and videos from GO Markets analysts are based on their independent analysis. Views expressed are of their own and of a ‘general’ nature. Advice (if any) are not based on the reader’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs.  Readers should, therefore, consider how appropriate the advice (if any) is to their objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice.

Lukman’s Week Ahead: Market Themes to Watch Out For – Webinar Dec 30

An authority on the markets, Lukman is frequently quoted by leading media across the globe, including the BBC, CNBC, CNN Money and Reuters. Join Lukman for expert insights on the latest market movements, potential trading opportunities and what the week ahead has in store for traders. Enjoy an expert look at: • The key themes driving the financial markets • Technical and fundamental trading ideas on the MT4 platform • How to use the latest FXTM trading signals • Using fundamental analysis to increase your profit potential • What to monitor over the coming week.

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Lukman Otunuga has been a Research Analyst at FXTM since 2015. A keen follower of macroeconomic events, with a strong professional and academic background in finance, Lukman is well versed in fundamental and technical analysis. His in-depth analysis on global currency and commodity markets is often cited by leading international media, including the Associated Press (AP), BBC, CNBC, CNN, Marketwatch, NASDAQ, and The Telegraph. He has also appeared on Africa’s biggest television network, NTA 2. Lukman holds a BSc (hons) degree in Economics from the University of Essex, UK and an MSc in Finance from London School of Business and Finance.

Pound Slips as Fears of No-Deal Brexit Overtake Post-Election Optimism

Sterling has depreciated against every single G10 currency this week following plans from Boris Johnson to make it illegal for the UK Government to extend the transition period of Brexit beyond 2020. The recent announcement from Boris Johnson has raised concerns over Britain leaving the European Union by the end of 2020 with no deal in place.

It must be kept in mind that Johnson’s decision to block an extension of the Brexit transition period will not only limit the trade deal options for the UK, but potentially take UK out of the EU without a deal, reverting to WTO trade rules, which makes it more burdensome for businesses and the UK economy.

A landslide victory for Boris Johnson in the UK general elections gave the British Pound a much-needed boost, with Sterling jumped above 1.35000 against the US Dollar on December 13. Post-election optimism came in hopes that a clear majority Conservative win would remove uncertainty regarding Brexit.

Pound also reached the highest level in more than three years against the Euro. But the optimism proved to be short-lived as the GBPUSD tumbled more than 400 pips this week after concerns on possibility of a hard-Brexit returned to the table.

On the technical side, GBPUSD on the 4-Hour timeframe has been following a downtrend since December 13. The price dipped below the key level of 1.31000 on December 18. The lowest level of the period under study stands at 1.30462. As of writing, the price is hovering around 1.30734 with negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence and Momentum below the 100 level.

The price is currently trading below the 50-period simple moving average with Relative Strength Index below 50 level which supports the recent bearish price move. Resistance level lies at 1.35160 while the support level lies at 1.30462. Bears are trying to push the price below the psychological mark of 1.30000, fresh Brexit concerns could strengthen the argument for further bearish movements.

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Disclaimer: This written/visual material is comprised of personal opinions and ideas. The content should not be construed as containing any type of investment advice and/or a solicitation for any transactions. It does not imply an obligation to purchase investment services, nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. FXTM, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available and assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment based on the same.

 

Fondex Proudly Announces the Launch of an Exclusive Suite of Indicators and cBots

Created by the multi-talented prop trader, Fabio La Rosa, also renowned for exploring Harmonic trading, Fibonacci and Gann charts, the Fondex cTrader Suite is a package of 70 indicators, ranging from trend and time ones, to others showing volume and volatility. In combination with the indicators, the Suite also comes with 22 pre-configured cBots, designed to facilitate the traders’ position management activities.

The Fondex cTrader Suite has been designed by traders for traders, making it the most comprehensive package to be used in conjunction with each individual’s analysis in order to proceed in making better-informed trading decisions. Each indicator has been carefully created and chosen to be part of the Suite, and the combination of them all provides traders with an all-inclusive package to support their technical analysis. The Suite is exclusive to Fondex clients and can be easily installed with the help of the broker’s Support team.

“We are so privileged to have partnered with Fabio and be able to offer the Fondex cTrader Suite to our clients. We are also honoured to be the only broker globally to offer this specific set of indicators and trading robots. Since the early stages of its creation, we were convinced of the value this Suite will bring to our traders. All these indicators are a trader’s dream and the fact that they are included in one package, makes the Fondex cTrader Suite a product of such high value for all our clients” said Mr. Alex Sologubov, COO of Fondex.

About Fondex

Fondex is a trade name of TopFX Ltd, which is registered as a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) and licensed by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC) under licence number 138/11. With more than 1,000 instruments across 7 asset classes, Fondex allows investors to create a well-diversified trading portfolio. Fondex cTrader offers the opportunity to trade in four different ways, manually, copying other traders’ strategies, using cBots and following signals from Trading Central and Autochartist, making it the ideal platform for both experienced traders and beginners. Spreads start from 0.0 pips and Fondex charges the lowest cTrader commissions globally on Forex, Energies and Precious Metals. Additionally, Fondex secures its clients’ funds by keeping them in Tier-1 segregated accounts, while also offering them Negative Balance Protection. For more information, please visit https://fondex.com/.

Advanced Oscillators – Webinar Dec 20

They can help you to identify potential trends in the markets, along with overbought and oversold levels. Oscillators are used when there is no definite trend or when the market is moving sideways. Join Forex Educator Bilal Jafar for a complete introduction to some of the most popular oscillators, including the RSI, Momentum, MACD, Stochastic, CCI and Williams %R. Don’t miss out on the chance to learn from one of our FX experts from the comfort of your own home!

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Bilal Jafar is a Forex Educator with FXTM. He holds an MBA in Finance from the Institute of Business & Management, Lahore, and has over eight years of experience in the financial markets. He started his journey as a forex trader and also worked in different positions within sales and education. In 2015, he founded and began serving as the Editor of Pak Economy, one of Pakistan’s leading business and financial magazines. After working as a Business Development Manager with FXTM, he then joined the Education department to pursue his passion for sharing his forex knowledge. His diverse experience in sales, media and education gives him an extra edge that helps him better understand traders’ educational needs.

Building a Trader’s Mindset – Webinar Dec 20

This informative presentation will teach you the final steps on a trader’s journey to maximise the possibility of becoming a profitable investor. Theunis will provide a step-by step approach and practical demonstrations, ensuring that participants thoroughly comprehend how to develop a resilient trader’s mindset. Don’t miss out on the chance to learn from one of our experts from the comfort of your own home! All the material presented at these events has been approved by the company’s Key Individual, in accordance with FSCA guidelines.

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FXTM Forex Educator Theunis Kruger has always been fascinated by economics, with a particular interest in ‘wave’ formations and how they can be used to forecast and analyse trends in the financial markets. He began to trade personally as a hobby, but his keen insights and aptitude soon paved the path towards a successful career. With a decade of solid trading experience to his name, Theunis now enjoys sharing his forex knowledge with others. He also has experience in real estate and holds a degree in Town and Regional planning, complimenting his passion for securing a healthy financial future.

Asian Stocks Mixed as Investors Mull “Phase One” Trade Deal

While the rollback of tariffs is set to brighten the outlook for Asian economies, it remains to be seen whether the region can pick up enough momentum to take full advantage of the receding trade tensions. Should the economic data over the coming months uphold such a notion, that should spur on more risk appetite, which bodes well for assets across the emerging-markets complex.

Dollar set to end 2019 on resilient note

The impending impeachment vote against President Donald Trump, though harbouring the potential to trigger knee-jerk reactions, is not expected to have a meaningful impact on the Dollar’s performance going into the new year. The Dollar Index’s (DXY) presence above the psychological 97 level has been justified by the resilient US economic data, as evidenced by the latest factory manufacturing and home construction data, while aided by the weaker Pound. The upcoming US Q3 GDP data should also keep DXY above 97.0, provided the official print is in line with market expectations at 2.1 percent, while a better-than-expected GDP revision could send DXY towards the 97.5 mark.

Sterling could be in for more volatility in 2020

Despite the Pound’s recent drop, the immediate support level for GBPUSD has shifted higher to 1.30, now that UK election risk is behind us. Still, 2020 could be another volatile year for Sterling, as the UK seeks to shape its future relationship with the European Union by year-end, with the risk of a hard Brexit apparently still on the table. Should a hard Brexit become likelier as the year progresses, that could prompt GBPUSD to trade closer towards the lower 1.20s.

Oil sustained by demand-side optimism

Brent’s rise above the $65/bbl psychological level demonstrates the risk-on sentiment in the markets, with demand-side uncertainties dialed down following the limited trade deal between the US and China. Moving forward, supply-side risks could still serve as a drag on Oil prices, with non-compliance among OPEC+ members, rising US inventories, and shale output being the key factors to watch, as well as any surprise spike in geopolitical tensions involving Oil producers.

Gold bulls need strong reason to break above $1500

Gold prices continue to remain supported, despite its bias to the downside, pending further details on the expected US-China trade deal. Still, potential gains for Bullion appear capped at the $1500 level, unless Gold bulls are shown signs that the global economy is not in a position to take full advantage of the expected rollback in trade tariffs in 2020.

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Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.

After Clarity on Trade and Brexit, Here’s What to Look for Across the Week Ahead

Washington and Beijing announced on Friday an agreement of an interim trade deal to partially reduce their trade conflict. According to this deal, China will purchase up to $200 billion in additional goods and services over the next two years on top of the amount it bought in 2017. The purchased products will include at least $40 billion of US agricultural goods. China will also refrain from competitive devaluations of the Yuan and tighten regulations on US intellectual property and forced technology transfer. In return, the US will cut tariffs on $120 billion of Chinese imports introduced in September to 7.5% from 15% and ditch planned tariffs on $160 billion of Chinese consumer products.

In the UK, Boris Johnson returns to power with a big majority, paving the way for the nation to leave the EU by the end of January. The hard part now begins for Mr. Johnson as he will try to negotiate a new trade agreement with the EU and have it ratified by end of 2020 before the transition period ends.

With two of the most imminent global risks resolved, markets have breathed a sigh of relief, sending US equities to record highs while the Pound has rallied more than three big figures after Thursday’s election results were announced.

Despite the achievements over the last week, the drama may not be completely over and there’s still news flow to keep traders busy.

Trump impeachment may have little impact on financial markets

President Trump is set to be impeached this week by the Democrat-led House with charges of abusing his power and obstructing Congress. However, Republicans are not likely to convict him in a Senate trial. Given this fact, markets are unlikely to be moved much by the impeachment unless other facts emerge. However, we could see some noise in US equities and fixed income markets, but this is not expected to be majorly market moving.

Will the Bank of England turn hawkish?

The Bank of England is expected to keep policy unchanged when it meets on Thursday. Traders who pushed sterling to 1.35 against the dollar on Friday would like to hear hawkish comments to further encourage the bullish trend.

Given that we have more clarity on the Brexit process, the BoE will put more focus on the economic outlook. ‘Getting Brexit done’ by early 2020 doesn’t necessarily mean improving economic conditions. We still have the transition period and a trade deal to be finalised. Until then, growth may remain weak and that’s likely to keep the BoE on the dovish side. Given that most of the good news has already been priced into the Pound, a dovish signal from the BoE will likely drive selling pressure. We currently see 1.35 as a short-term top with further sterling appreciation likely to require an improvement in the UK macro outlook.

The Bank of Japan is also due to meet on Thursday, but no changes are expected on policy or forward guidance.

Economic data releases and Fed speakers

Given that the two imminent risks have been resolved, economic data are likely to become the main driver for currency traders. Monday brings the latest set of PMI data from the Eurozone, UK, and the US. The data may not reflect the optimism related to the US-China phase-one deal or the Conservative victory. Tuesday sees the release of UK labour market data and on Wednesday, we’ll have the final CPI reading from the Eurozone and an inflation reading from the UK, along with the German IFO business climate survey. The last day of the working week brings the final reading on US third-quarter GDP growth.

Traders may also take some hints from Fed speakers Eric Rosengren and John Williams after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged last week and forecast no changes in policy for the year ahead.

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Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.

RoboMarkets Receives Best Trading Execution Award at Professional Trader Awards 2019 in London

Winners in different nominations were decided by the poll conducted among professional traders. The award ceremony took place on December 19th, 2019 in the Four Seasons hotel in London.

Professional Trader Awards is presented to the brokers that have exclusive offers for maintaining professional trading accounts. Awards in each of 14 nominations were given out to the companies that achieved outstanding results in the fields of technologies and innovations, trading conditions and order execution quality, development of loyalty programs and customer support services.

The open voting started on November 1st, 2019, right after the award nominees were announced. For three weeks, the organizing committee of the event had been closely working with a professional trading community via media partners and third-party trade representatives, and involving in voting individual traders who operate on professional accounts. All of them were offered to express their opinions and vote for the companies that demonstrated the best results in each of the categories. Thereby, the professional trading community selected all winners of “Professional Trader Awards 2019”.

“Since the moment RoboMarkets was established in 2012, the Company’s activities have been focused on providing its clients with services of the highest quality. It is safe to say that RoboMarkets still gives the highest priority to this principle, which appears relevant up to the present days. We’re very pleased that experts in the industry expressed such high opinions about our efforts in this direction. It means that products and technological solutions offered by RoboMarkets meet all existing standards and allow clients to pursue their investment goals with with the best trading execution.” – says Anton Ivanov, RoboMarkets marketing officer.


About RoboMarkets

RoboMarkets is an investment company with the CySEC license No. 191/13. RoboMarkets offers investment services in many European countries by providing traders, who work on financial market, with access to its proprietary trading platforms. More detailed information about the Company’s products and activities can be found on the official website at www.robomarkets.com.

Markets Tepid Ahead of Fed Interest Rate Decision

  • Asian markets struggle for direction
  • Dollar waits for Federal Reserve rate decision
  • Gold grinds higher on market caution

Repeated mixed signals and messages ahead of the December 15 tariff deadline are fostering confusion across financial markets. This sentiment continues to be reflected in global equities as markets adopt a ‘wait and see’ approach until clarity and direction are offered on the trade front. In Europe, shares are expected to make a cautious start ahead of the U.S Federal Reserve’s final interest rate decision of 2019. Given how uncertainty remains a dominant theme this week, safe-haven assets like Gold and the Japanese Yen have the potential to appreciate as investors head for safety.

Steady Dollar ahead of Fed meeting

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.75% in December.

However, much of the focus will be directed towards the policy statement, economic projections, dot plot and press conference for clues on future monetary policy. Speculation around the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates anytime soon have been quelled by November’s blockbuster US jobs report. Although markets are pricing in a 54% probability of a rate cut by September 2020, it will be interesting to see whether the dot plot mirrors market expectations. Appetite towards the Dollar will also be influenced by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks on the US economy and monetary policy. Should the press conference and policy statement adopt a dovish tone, the Dollar Index may dip back towards 97.40.

Pound dips on UK poll projections

Sterling’s depreciation against the Dollar on Wednesday continues to highlight how the currency remains extremely sensitive to polls.

Appetite towards the Pound was dealt a blow heavy after a poll showed a narrowing lead for Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party. Given how the general election is around the corner, the British Pound is set to remain volatile and highly reactive to polls.

Focusing on the technical picture, the GBPUSD is struggling to defend 1.3100 on the daily charts. A solid breakdown below this point should encourage a decline towards 1.3000 in the short to medium term.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold is grinding higher amid caution ahead of a looming tariff deadline on December 15th. The precious has gained roughly 0.25% since the start of the week thanks to investors adopting a guarded approach. The sense of uncertainty is likely to continue supporting appetite for safe-haven assets for the rest of this week.

Gold is seen swinging within a range in the near term ahead of the tariff deadline. Prices are seen testing $1470 amid the market caution, with further uncertainty injecting bulls with enough confidence to attack $1476.50 and $1480, respectively. Given how the precious metal remains highly sensitive to trade headlines, any good this week could result in a decline back below $1458.


Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.