Technical Overview of Important NZD Pairs: 22.08.2018

NZD/USD

Having taken a U-turn from 0.6720-25 resistance-confluence, NZDUSD highlights the importance of a week-long ascending trend-line, at 0.6655, which if broken can further fetch the quote to the 0.6640 and the 0.6610 supports. Given the pair’s additional downturn beneath 0.6610, the 0.6570 and the 0.6545 can entertain sellers. Alternatively, an upside break of 0.6725 can quickly propel the pair to 0.6765 and then to the 0.6800 resistance-mark. Also, pair’s successful advances past-0.6800 can confront the 0.6830 and the 0.6860 north-side barriers.

NZD/JPY

Alike NZDUSD, the NZDJPY also reversed from immediate resistance, namely the 74.05-10 horizontal-region, which in-turn signal brighter chances for the pair’s drop to the 73.55 and to the 73.20 TL figure. Should prices continue trading southwards after 73.20, the 72.80 and the 72.30 may please the Bears. In case the pair surpasses 74.10 resistance, its rise to 74.50 and 74.75 could well be expected. However, a month-long downward slanting trend-line, around 75.45-50, might challenge the buyers beyond 74.75.

AUD/NZD

AUDNZD is likely clubbed in a symmetrical triangle between the 1.0940 support and the 1.1030 resistance but oversold RSI levels indicate the pair’s strength to come. Hence, the 1.1070 and the 1.1125 to gain investor attention once 1.1030 is broken. If Bulls refrain to respect 1.1125 hurdle, the 1.1175 and the 61.8% FE level of 1.1230 may receive optimists’ eye-share. Meanwhile, break of 1.0940 can flash 1.0900 and the 1.0845-40 as quotes whereas 1.0775 and the 1.0710 could become important to observe afterwards.

NZD/CAD

Even after failing to clear the two-month old descending trend-line, the NZDCAD’s near-term declines can be restricted by the 0.8685 TL support. Given the pair drops below 0.8685, the 0.8630 and the 0.8600 may offer intermediate halts during its plunge to 0.8560 and the 61.8% FE level of 0.8500. On the upside, the 0.8745 seems crucial for short-term buyers as break of the same could escalate the pair moves to the 0.8785 and then to the 0.8825-35 resistance-zone. Assuming that the pair keeps rising above 0.8835, the 0.8870, the 0.8915 and the 0.8975 are likely following numbers to appear on the chart.

The Japanese Yen Loses Its Safe-Haven Status as China-US Trade Conflict Intensifies, Global Stocks Slightly Lower

The dollar adds at the start of a new week, despite the weak employment growth in July report. The EURUSD pair is trading near the 6-weeks lows at 1.1550. Despite a poor number of jobs created, market participants felt that the Fed would maintain its commitment to the gradual tightening of the policy with two more hikes this year.

Nevertheless, the US market continues to attract investors’ interest. The strong company reporting pushes US stock indices back to the January highs. A year earlier, the rally of the indices was partially supported by the dollar weakening, but now the USD is experiencing an impressive demand. Global stocks trade slightly lower on Monday morning as trade war tensions weigh on markets.

In addition to data on the labor market, the demand for the dollar is also supported by the growing trade conflict between the US and China. China proposes to expand tariffs on US goods, including such sensitive sectors with a trading volume of $ 60 billion as liquefied natural gas and aircraft.

The consequences of the trade conflict between the US and China threaten to affect the growth of the entire region, which puts pressure on the yen as well. The Japanese currency, to some extent, loses its status of a protective currency having lost almost 6.5% to the dollar for the last 4 months as the trade conflicts have been intensifying.


Suggested Articles


The British Pound fell below 1.30 on Friday and is now near this mark and near its annual lows.

Thus, the US currency demonstrates the strengthening of its largest competitors.

The EURUSD pair is trading at the low of the last three months. It is an important area of support, below which many orders are concentrated. A fall below 1.15 is capable of triggering an avalanche of stop orders and opening the way for a fairly rapid fall of the pair down to around 1.10, without encountering any serious technical support levels along the way.

This article was written by FxPro

The Japanese Yen is Leveling Out

After a phase of heavy growth in the middle of July, the USD has finally given Yen a chance to reassert itself. It looks like now the market is almost not interested in safe assets as Yen, for example, and is calmly assessing external risk levels.

Now, investors are paying more attention to statistics. On Monday, Japan issued an interesting release on June retail sales which allows one to assume the positive economic impulse will be restored in the II quarter of 2018. The report has demonstrated the growth of the index to 1.5% m/m after a 1.7% m/m fall in May. On a year-on-year basis the statistics are also positive: here we can see a 1.8% rise, while the forecast predicted only a 1.7% rise, with the previous value being 0.6%.

However, one cannot fully assume that it will be definitely the retail sector that will reboot the economic growth. Nevertheless, one can assume that, together with the other main fundamental reports, demonstrating the stabilization in the economic system after the decline at the beginning of the year, the retail sales indicator will lay the groundwork for the further improvement of the situation.

According to different estimates, there is a risk now for Japan to get involved in the trade wars between the US and China. As of yet, there are no compelling reasons to be afraid of it, but in theory, such possibility really exists. If the American partners again demand Japan to reduce the trade balance surplus, the economic system of the Land of the rising Sun will again find itself in the risk zone.

This week a sufficient number of Japanese statistics will be issued – on Tuesday, the July session of the Bank of Japan will be finished. More objective estimates of the further interventions of the regulator may be made following the results of this session. This is very important of the behavior of Yen.

In order to understand the current market status of the USDJPY currency pair, we have to analyze the long-term technical picture. If we evaluate the general situation by looking at the graphical analysis, we will see that the Market is slowly but surely entering a downtrend. We can interpret the current local situation as a correction in relation to the first down impulse. On the other hand, the Market is trying to secure itself below the surpassed support line, by testing it from below. In the short run, the pullback can be directed towards the levels of 111.58 and 111.88. By understanding that the downtrend is developing in the “impulse-correction-impulse” mode, we can expect the next down impulse to be directed towards the levels of 108.90 and 107.92, which corresponds to 50.0% and 61.8% according to Fibonacci, in relation to the previous uptrend.

USD/JPY 4H Chart
USD/JPY 4H Chart

This article was written by Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, a Chief Analyst at RoboForex

USD/JPY Fundamental Daily Forecast – Yen Spikes Higher on Reports BOJ Officials Considering Policy Change

The Dollar/Yen is trading sharply lower early Monday as investors continue to react to a combination of potentially bearish fundamental and technical events.

At 0618 GMT, the USD/JPY is trading 110.931, down 0.532 or 0.47%.

The forex pair opened lower early Monday in reaction to U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments on the greenback’s strength last Friday and his criticism of Fed policy on Thursday. The Japanese Yen also spiked higher on reports Japan’s central bank is debating moves to reduce its massive monetary stimulus.

Essentially, Trump expressed concerns that the Fed’s plan to raise interest rates at least two more times this year will drive the U.S. Dollar higher, potentially hurting the U.S. economy.

The Dollar/Yen was also pressured after Reuters and other media reported that the Bank of Japan is actively discussing changes to its policies. The BOJ is scheduled to hold its next monetary policy meeting on July 30 and 31.

The USD/JPY is currently trading at a two-week, having lost more than two percent from its six-month peak of 113.18 hit less than a week ago.

USDJPY
Daily USD/JPY

Technical factors are also driving the price action early Monday. On Thursday, the USD/USD formed a technically bearish closing price reversal top on the daily chart. The chart pattern was confirmed on Friday and reaffirmed earlier today.

The main range is defined as the May 29 bottom at 108.114 and the July 19 top at 113.210. Its first major target is the 50% to 61.8% retracement zone at 110.662 to 110.061. Buyers could step in on a test of this zone. Triggering a retracement of the break from 113.210 to today’s intraday low.

The nearest short-term bottom is 110.280. A trade through this level will change the main trend to down on the daily chart.


Suggested Articles


Forecast

Trump’s comments may have ignited the initial sell-off in the Dollar/Yen, however, they are now an afterthought due to the reports that the BOJ is considering a shift in monetary policy. The story is still breaking and details are sparse, but investors are wasting no time waiting for an official word which probably won’t come out until next week’s central bank meeting.

According to Bloomberg, the BOJ will likely emphasize in its communication that allowing JGB 10-year yields to rise higher than 0.10% will add flexibility to monetary policy, and it is not a tightening.

Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said, “I know absolutely nothing about the basis for those reports,” when asked about the media reports while he was in Buenos Aires to attend a meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors.

“Largest Bilateral Trade Deal Ever” – Trade Deal Between Japan and the European Union Covers 600 Million People

The trade agreement will probably secure the global trading system from the threat of protectionism and covers almost a third of the global economy.

This agreement will eliminate all the tariffs on nearly all goods between Japan and the European Union and covers 600 million people altogether. Among all products, it will remove tariffs for exports like wine, Olive oil, and Cheese.

In addition, Japanese automobile makers and electronics firms will have fewer obstacles in the European Union.

The president of the European Council, Donald Tusk, stated: “largest bilateral trade deal ever.”

He added in a written statement: “Relations between the European Union and Japan have never been stronger, geographically we are far apart, But politically and economically we could hardly be any closer.”

This Agreement comes as an opposition to President Donald Trump tariffs on China and the EU and the rising threat of trade war.

According to CNN Baker McKenzie partner, Ross Denton said the deal signed Tuesday sends “a very strong signal to the US Administration that the EU and Japan, two major trade partners of the US, both see the benefits of removing barriers and reducing, not increasing tariffs.”

Cecilia Malmström, the EU trade commissioner, said that last month the US closed the door to Europe although the Europeans ware willing to lower its tariffs. The US deepened the conflict as with the implementation of new tariffs on Aluminum and Steel.

Another negative act by President Trump was at the start of his presidency when he canceled the Trans-Pacific Partnership which was another deal that lowered tariffs for the eleven remaining signatories. The deal is expected to start in 2019 after approved by both sides.

This article was written by Marios Athinodorou, TeleTrade’s market analyst, and commentator. Among others, Marios is delivering weekly trading webinars. Sign up for upcoming webinars here.

New Zealand Dollar Slightly Higher as Inflation Expected to Remain Steady

The U.S. dollar was seen posting gains on Friday as price action remained strong toward the close of the week. The economic data was quiet for the most part. Switzerland’s PPI figures released earlier in the day showed a 0.2% increase on the month as expected.

The U.S. import prices fell 0.4% missing estimates of a 0.1% increase instead. Previous month’s data was revised higher to 0.9%.

Earlier in the day, China’s GDP report showed that the economy advanced 6.7% matching estimates. Industrial production was, however, weaker, rising just 6.0% and falling short of the 6.5% forecast.

The economic data for the day includes the U.S. retail sales figures. Economists forecast that headline retail sales increased 0.4% on the month. This marks a slower pace of increased compared to the 0.8% gain seen the month before. Core retail sales are also forecast to rise 0.4%.

New Zealand will be releasing its quarterly CPI later tonight. Forecasts point to a 0.5% increase in inflation during the second quarter. The New Zealand Dollar gained 0.07% on Monday morning, trading at 0.6772.

Does your trading knowledge measure up? Check out our Learn Forex Basics!

EURUSD intra-day analysis

EUR/USD 4H Chart
EUR/USD 4H Chart

EURUSD (1.1683): The EURUSD was seen falling to a fresh 10-day low on Friday as price action touched 1.1608 on the day. However, the intraday declines recovered as the currency pair managed to close slightly bullish. Price action was seen closing near 1.1695 on Friday’s close which marks the previously breached support level. A rebound off this level is required in order to confirm the upside in prices. If the EURUSD posts a reversal near this price level we expect to see further declines that could send the common currency falling toward 1.1600 regions.

USDJPY intra-day analysis

USD/JPY 4H Chart
USD/JPY 4H Chart

USDJPY (112.48): The USDJPY currency pair rallied to a six month high on Friday before giving up the gains. Price action quickly reversed back to 112.28 level. As long as this minor support holds, the currency pair could be seen consolidating at the currency levels. In the event of a break down below this level, then USDJPY could extend the losses toward the next lower support at 111.13. However, the major falling trend line is expected to act as dynamic support in the short term.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis

Gold 4H Chart
Gold 4H Chart

XAUUSD (1243.21): Gold prices were seen posting declines on the day as price touched fresh intraday lows of 1240.81. The recovery in the declines saw gold prices trading back near the price level of 1242. A breakout above this level is required to confirm the upside momentum that could be building up. Failure to close above 1247 could, however, trigger further gains that could push the price of spot gold toward the 1258 handle. To the downside, we expect to see price action consolidating at the current levels.

This article was written by Orbex

Major Bullish Flag on USD/JPY – Possible Trading Plan

The USDJPY is coiling for a significant break and the technical analysis points to higher levels. This article focuses on a potential bullish case for the pair and how should bulls position to take the most out of the upcoming trend.

A mandatory condition for a bullish flag is a vertical move before the flag’s formation. In this case, the vertical movement is the strong bullish reaction the pair had when President Trump got elected one and a half years ago.

Typically, the USDJPY is correlated directly to the United States equity. The direct correlation between the USDJPY and the DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) comes from the inversed relationship between risk appetite and the JPY.

When investors want to buy U.S. equities, they borrow in JPY as the interest rate is meager. With the JPY they buy the USD to pay for the stocks. Hence, the USDJPY moves higher together with U.S. stocks. Apparently, the opposite happens in a selloff.

Because most of the trading nowadays is automated, the transactions happen with the speed of light, and the reaction is almost simultaneously.

Therefore, the jump in the USDJPY as you can see below came when the DJIA and the general U.S. stock market exploded higher as a result of Trump’s election.

USD/JPY Daily Chart
USD/JPY Daily Chart

What Makes a Bullish Flag

Despite the upward move suggesting the poll of a flag is in place, the pair only drifted lower. The consolidation that followed, as it can be seen in the chart above, took over one and a half years to form.

And, all this time, the pair decoupled from the DJIA correlation. In fact, the U.S. equities moved much higher, while the USDJPY corrected. As such, we can say that when the correlation kicks in again, it’ll send the USDJPY higher, blowing some wind in the bullish scenario.

A bullish flag is a consolidation. It can form on the horizontal, but also drifting lower like is the case here.

Obviously, the bigger the timeframe, the more time it’ll form to break. What matters is to focus on the series of lower highs. And, on the potential continuation patterns

When the market will break the lower highs series, we can consider the flag to be broken. Effectively, for a valid break, bulls need something like this:

USD/JPY Daily Chart
USD/JPY Daily Chart

The current lower highs series is not broken yet. For it to be broken, the price must close and hold above the blue line visible in the chart above.

The signs are positive for bulls: a pennant as a continuation pattern forms for quite some time now (more than a trading month). For this reason, the chances are that the price just builds energy before breaking higher.

Conclusion

A move above 111.50 should trigger some stops. The next logical target is 116.24 and 120, providing the 110 level won’t be revisited anymore.

If the triangle that now looks like a pennant will break lower, expect the price to find support at a dynamic fifty percent retracement level of the descending channel.

This article was written by AMarkets

JPY Weaker or Stronger?

USDJPY is having a good bearish situation but there is no sell signal yet! For that, we need to see the breakout of the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern, which can be now seen on the charts. What is more, we are having here a false breakout pattern, which is also promoting the drop. Price coming above the red area will cancel this negative approach.

NZDJPY is giving an opposite sign: buy, so here, JPY is about to get weaker. This view is supported by the false breakout (but in the long term) and the price coming back above a major resistance. Now, the chart is showing us an additional flag in the mid-term, which is bouncing from a support. In overall, that is a buy, but we need to wait for the price breaking the upper line of the flag first.

The last one is Gold, which is between the horizontal resistance and the dynamic support (long-term up trendline). We are waiting for the breakout here, which will give us, potentially a super strong trading signal.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis

Technical Outlook For NZD/USD, EUR/NZD, NZD/JPY & AUD/NZD: 07.06.2018

NZD/USD

Failure to surpass 0.7050-60 resistance-region during its recent rally couldn’t stop the NZDUSD from it’s another attempt to conquer the same barrier on Thursday, which if broken on a D1 closing basis could propel the pair towards 50-day SMA level of 0.7085 and then to the 0.7100 round-figure. Should the quote maintains its strength after 0.7100, the 0.7145-50 and the 0.7190, comprising 100-day SMA, might entertain the Bulls. If 0.7050-60 continue restricting the pair’s up-moves, the 0.7020, the 0.7000 and the 0.6975 are likely immediate supports to observe before highlighting the 0.6950-45 zone to look for the sellers. Moreover, pair’s dip beneath the 0.6945 can drag it to 0.6920 and the 0.6880 rest-points.

EUR/NZD

Alike NZDUSD, the EURNZD also struggles with near-term important resistance, here it is 1.6780-85 area, break of which becomes necessary for the pair to aim for 1.6825 and the 1.6880-90. Given the pair’s ability to clear 1.6890 hurdle, the 1.6960 and the 1.7000 may lure the traders. On the contrary, the 1.6720 and the 1.6650 can limit the pair’s short-term declines, breaking which the 1.6600 and the 61.8% FE level of 1.6545 may please the Bears. Assuming the pair’s sustained weakness below 1.6545, the 1.6520 and the 1.6450 could mark their presence on the chart.

NZD/JPY

NZDJPY’s recent recovery seems clubbed between the 50-day & 100-day SMA area of 77.00 to 77.70. In case the pair crosses the 77.70 cap, more than four-month old descending trend-line, at 78.35, might confine its following rise, if not then the 79.00, the 79.20 and the 79.60 can act as intermediate halts prior to flashing 80.00 as a quote. Alternatively, a downside break of 77.00 can reprint 76.60 and the 75.85 but the 75.50-55 horizontal-line could challenge the south-run afterwards. Additionally, pair’s declines below 75.50 might not hesitate fetching it to 74.50.

AUD/NZD

With the 1.0895-1.0900 resistance-region activating AUDNZD’s pullback, the pair is likely running downwards to 1.0825 and 1.0800 ahead of taking rest on the 1.0775-70 support-zone. Should prices refrain to respect the 1.0770, the 1.0740, the 1.0725 and the 1.0680 may grab sellers’ attention. Meanwhile, an upside break of 1.0900 can trigger the pair’s rally to 1.0940 and the 1.0960 resistances. Given the pair’s successful trading beyond 1.0960, the 1.1000 and the 1.1030, including 61.8% FE, can be targeted if being long.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

3 Sweet Setups with JPY!

Today, we do have three pairs with the Japanese Yen. The first one is the GBPJPY, which is giving us a super strong long-term sell signal. The pair already broke all major supports and now is testing the closest one as a resistance. The first contact was bearish but it seems like we will have another test soon. Double top on such an important level can be a marvelous trading opportunity.

The next one is the NZDJPY, which is very close to denying the strong buy signal created by the piercing pattern on the weekly candles. We are on the crucial long-term support and a bearish breakout can cause a real waterfall here with a bearish opportunity for hundreds of pips.

The last one is the USDJPY, which already broke the trendline and the horizontal support on the 110. The first one was already successfully tested as a resistance and the second one should be tested soon. A bearish bounce from the 110 will be a legitimate sell signal.

 

Three great setups with the NZD and AUD

As we are closer to the end of the week, let us look at the weekly chart on the NZDJPY, where we are having a very interesting situation. The price is trying to create a weekly hammer on the super important long-term horizontal support around the 75.7. If succeed, we should get a legitimate buy signal.

Two interesting setups with the AUD. First one will be the AUDUSD, where the price is trying to form an inverse head and shoulders on a crucial horizontal support. Bullish success here, so the price closing above the neckline, will also mean a false breakout below the orange area. All that together would be a strong buy signal… Would be, because we still have to wait for that, as the right shoulder is being formed but the neckline is still far.

The second one with the AUD is the AUDCAD, where the situation is pretty similar. We do have a horizontal support and an attempt to create an iH&S formation. Here we also have to be patient. Only the breakout of the neckline will allow us to go long.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis

Three promising setups on pairs without the USD: NZDJPY, EURAUD and GBPCAD

Today on the video, we do have two occasions for the future which may be good for using pending orders and one, which is good right here, right now. The first setup is on the NZDJPY, which is on the long-term horizontal support around the 75.7 support. The price closing below the opening from today will be a strong sell signal.

The next one is the EURAUD, which is going down despite a good occasion for a bullish reversal. Buyers had it all: up trendline, horizontal support a flag and a possible iH&S. As for now, it looks like they will not use it and the price may go down. For a sell signal, we need to see the breakout of the green area.

Next one is the GBPCAD, which is currently showing the main principle of the Price Action. Broken support becomes a resistance. This resistance is the area around the 1.739 and the 38,2% Fibonacci. This setup has a very good risk to reward ratio so is definitely the one to look at.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis

Korean Summit and Bank of Japan Tomorrow Impact Yen

Two major risk events will take place in Asia tomorrow, the Bank of Japan meeting and the Korean summit.

Major Risk Events in Asia Early on Friday

The Yen’s weak mid-term trend continues to break through resistance. And early on Friday, a host of risk events will flare in Asia which will make investors nervous.

USD/JPY 4H Chart
USD/JPY 4H Chart

The Bank of Japan will issue its Monetary Policy and conduct its Press Conference. And overshadowing the central bank will be the summit between South Korea and North Korea, which will cause trading impact tomorrow and on Monday.

Long-Term Shows Wicked Results in Yen

A long-term chart shows the wicked volatility seen in the Yen over the last six months – as it has gone from weakness to strength, and is flirting again with the lower realms of its value. The Yen is near 109.25 versus the U.S Dollar.

USD/JPY Daily Chart
USD/JPY Daily Chart

The Yen has always been a crucial barometer of risk appetite for investors. A weaker Yen tends to point to more risk-taking. However, tomorrow’s events will make the short-term dangerous and traders may want to practice caution.

In the short term, we believe the Yen could be negative. The mid-term and Long term we are unbiased.

Yaron Mazor is a senior analyst at SuperTraderTV.

SuperTraderTV Academy is a leader in investing and stock trading education. Sign up for a class today to learn proven strategies on how to trade smarter.

Technical Checks For USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, NZD/JPY & CAD/JPY: 19.04.2018

USD/JPY

Given the USDJPY’s sustained trading above fortnight-old ascending trend-line, the pair is likely to challenge the 107.85-90 horizontal-resistance, which if broken could escalate its recovery towards 108.45 and the 108.90 north-side numbers. If prices keep rising after 108.90, the 109.30 and the 109.80 can offer intermediate halts during its rally to 110.50. In case of the pullback, the 107.15 may become nearby rest for the pair ahead of highlighting the 106.90 TL, breaking which 106.60 & 106.10 shouldn’t be missed if holding short positions. Moreover, the 105.60 and the 105.30-25 can entertain the Bears past-106.10.

GBP/JPY

GBPJPY’s U-turn from 153.85-90 seems dragging it in direction to 151.70 and 151.15 while 151.85-75 region and the 150.40 ascending trend-line mark can limit the pair’s further downside. However, pair’s break of 150.40 can push the 150.00 psychological number to activate the profit-booking, failing to which could print the 149.30 and the 148.75 on chart. Alternatively, the 152.75 and the 153.30 might act as immediate resistances for the pair ahead of fueling to confront the 153.85-90 zone. Assuming that the pair manages to conquer 153.90, the 154.85 and the 155.50 may grab buyers’ attention.

NZD/JPY

Failure to clear the 200-day SMA again fetched the NZDJPY to 78.30-40 support-area that can trigger it’s up-moves, if not, then 78.00 and the 50-day SMA level of 77.70 could appear in the sellers’ radars to target. Should the pair posts a daily closing below 77.70, the 77.05, the 76.40 and the 76.00 can mark their presence as quotes. Meanwhile, 78.50, the 79.15 and the 200-day SMA level of 79.30 are likely consecutive resistances to restrict the pair’s near-term upside, breaking which 79.70 and the downward slanting TL, at 79.90, can become important for traders. If at all the pair surpasses the 79.90, also smashes the 80.00 round-figure, it’s rise to 81.00 and the 81.55 can’t be negated.

CAD/JPY

With the 85.30-45 horizontal-region aptly restricting the CADJPY’s advances, the pair expected to revisit the 84.55 and the 84.20 supports prior to aiming the 50-day SMA level of 83.45 during its additional declines. Though, an ascending trend-line, at 82.90, may confine the pair’s south-run beneath the 83.45, failing to which can make it vulnerable to plunge towards 82.40 & 81.60 rest-points. On the upside, a D1 close above 85.45 enables the pair to meet the 85.75 and the 100-day SMA level of 86.10, which if broken might propel its rise to 86.70 and then to the 87.30 resistances.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Three Great Bearish Setups. USDCAD, USDCHF and NZDJPY

This week should be important for the CAD. We do have an interest rate decision, statement, the CPI, and the Retail Sales data. Ahead of those events, CAD is very strong. USDCAD is going down for the past few weeks and it looks like this movement will continue. Currently, the price is creating the rectangle pattern, which promotes a breakout of its lower line and a further drop.

JPY is gaining strength across the globe (maybe apart from the GBPJPY). On NZDJPY we do have an interesting bearish setup. A rare combination of head and shoulders, false breakout and breakout of the up trendline. The one thing missing for a full, legitimate sell signal is the breakout of the 78.5 support.

USDCHF is very close to a major sell signal. All they need to do is to break the lower line of the long-term wedge and the neckline of the head and shoulders formation. Only this will be a significant reason to go short.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis

NZDJPY Analysis. Time for a take profit action on the JPY

Most of the pairs with the JPY, on Friday, created a shooting star on the daily chart. After such a strong movement, that can be an invitation to go south. For the past few weeks, JPY was on the back foot and was loosing heavily against major peers. Depreciation of the Yen was supported from both sides: fundamental and technical.

NZDJPY 4H Chart
NZDJPY 4H Chart

The short-term bearish correction that we mentioned in the first paragraph, is very probable, especially on the NZDJPY, which apart from the shooting star on the D1, has also two other bearish factors. First one is that the price made a false breakout above the 79.2 resistance (upper blue). False breakouts are usually very strong indicators to go against the initial movement. The second one is that we broke the mid-term up trendline (gold). All that can be considered bearish and we should not be surprised that the new week starts here on the back foot.

Although the sentiment is negative, it seems that it will not be negative for long. The first potential target for the drop is the 78.5 (lower blue area). The long-term sentiment remains positive and that what we see now, is just the take profit action, at least for now.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis

Technical Checks For Important NZD Pairs: 11.04.2018

NZD/USD

NZDUSD’s U-turn from 0.7345 horizontal-line again fuels the pair towards confronting the 0.7375 resistance-mark, break of which could escalate its up-moves in direction to the 0.7400 round-figure. However, pair’s rise beyond 0.7400 may only have 0.7410 as a barrier to clear before challenging the mid-February highs near 0.7435. Should overbought RSI continue restricting the pair’s strength and drag it beneath the 0.7345, the 0.7320, the 0.7300 and an upward slanting TL figure of 0.7280 are likely consecutive supports to appear on the chart. Moreover, pair’s dip below 0.7280 could avail the 0.7245 and the 0.7190 rest-points.

GBP/NZD

Having failed to sustain Friday’s pullback from 50-day & 100-day SMA confluence, GBPNZD re-tests the same support-zone around 1.9210–1.9190, which in-turn favors the pair’s another reversal targeting 1.9315 and the 1.9420 resistances. Given the Bulls’ ability to conquer 1.9420, the 1.9550 may act as intermediate halt during their journey to the 1.9600 trend-line. Meanwhile, a downside close below 1.9190 reignites the importance of ascending TL, at 1.9070 now, breaking which the pair could jump to 1.9000 psychological-magnet. If at all the pair keeps trading southwards after 1.9000, the 1.8900 and the 200-day SMA level of 1.8725 may appear in Bears’ radars.

NZD/JPY

Irrespective of the NZDJPY’s present struggle to maintain its strength, the pair can’t be termed weak unless it offers a daily closing below 78.35-25 horizontal-region. As a result, chances of the pair’s advances to 200-day SMA level of 79.40 become brighter if it surpasses the 79.15 nearby resistance but its following rise may have to clear the 80.00 and the 80.10 trend-line in order to please the NZD optimists. Alternatively, a daily closing beneath the 78.25 might not hesitate fetching the quote to 78.00 and the 77.60. Further, pair’s additional downside below 77.60 can have 77.00 and the 76.10 as strong supports to break prior to revisiting the 75.50 mark.

NZD/CAD

By taking support from three-month old ascending trend-line, the NZDCAD is trying to regain its status above 50-day SMA level of 0.9290 but a downward slanting TL stretched since mid-March, at 0.9320, could limit its upside then after. If the pair closes above 0.9320, the 0.9370 and the 0.9435 can be considered as buffers during the course of its rally towards 0.9460 & 0.9520. On the downside, a clear break of 0.9250 TL can trigger the pair’s profit-booking moves targeting 0.9190 & 0.9120 whereas 100-day SMA level of 0.9110 may challenge the sellers afterwards. Given the pair’s break of 0.9110, it becomes vulnerable to revisit the 0.9000 level.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Risk Adverse Possibilities Rising for Yen

However, there are reasons to believe the Yen could get stronger because of risk adverse situations arising in the coming days.

Precarious Sentiment and Reasons to be Cautious

Forex proved relatively range bound the first three days of trading this week. Precarious sentiment in global equities, the intrigue surrounding international trade and lingering concerns about the direction of central banks have triggered plenty of reasons to be cautious.

USD/JPY 4H Chart
USD/JPY 4H Chart

The Yen has been a prime example of this consolidation. However, the Japanese currency which has been testing weaker realms short-term versus the U.S Dollar – has not significantly challenged resistance above 107.20 since early March, and support for the Yen appears to be around 105.50.

Tight Range Seen but a Breakout is Expected

The rather tight range produced early this week could produce a breakout to occur over these next two days, as investors prepare and react to Friday’s coming Average Cash Earnings from Japan and then Average Hourly Earnings from the States.

USD/JPY Daily Chart
USD/JPY Daily Chart

Any surprises via inflation data will spur on volatility, and there is solid chance equity on the Nikkei Index and Wall Street will generate more fireworks. Speculators may be tempted to look for the U.S Dollar to be sold against the Yen in the coming days on the belief risk adverse sentiment will rise in Asia.

In the short term, we believe the Yen could be positive. The mid-term and Long term we are unbiased.

Yaron Mazor is a senior analyst at SuperTraderTV.

SuperTraderTV Academy is a leader in investing and stock trading education. Sign up for a class today to learn proven strategies on how to trade smarter.

Important JPY Pairs’ Technical Update: 04.04.2018

USD/JPY

With a week-long descending trend-line aptly restricting the USDJPY’s latest recovery, the pair seems well inclined to re-test an upward slanting TL support, at 105.75 now, breaking which it can decline to 105.25 and then to the 105.00 round-figure. Though, 104.60 could restrict the quote’s additional downside, failing to which can highlight 61.8% FE level of 104.10. On the upside, aforementioned trend-line number of 106.70 may keep disappointing the short-term buyers, which if broken could escalate the pair’s moves towards 107.20 and 107.65 while 107.85-90 horizontal-line could limit the pair’s follow-on rise. In case if the pair clears 107.90 mark, the 108.40, the 108.90 and the 109.20 can reappear on the chart.

EUR/JPY

Having failed to justify its bounce off the 130.00–129.95 support-zone, the EURJPY is again indicating the same region re-tests; however, 129.40-35 horizontal-area may confine the pair’s further south-run, if not then 128.80 & 128.20 can please the sellers. Alternatively, three-week old descending trend-line, around 131.40, can be considered as nearby important resistance for the pair to break in order to aim for 131.80 and the 50-day SMA level of 132.20. Should prices continue advancing after 132.20, chances of witnessing 133.00 as a level can’t be denied.

GBP/JPY

Even if a month-long ascending trend-channel favors the GBPJPY’s up-moves, the pair presently signals its drop to channel-support of 148.50 but the JPY Bulls’ refrain to respect the 148.50 mark can well drag it in direction to 148.00, 147.60 and the 147.00 consecutive rest-points. Meanwhile, the 150.10 may act as adjacent resistance for the pair, breaking which 150.50, the 150.75-85 horizontal-line and the 151.25, comprising channel’s upper-line, could gain optimists’ attention. Moreover, quote’s sustained trading above 151.25 can help registering the 152.00 and the 152.80 landmarks.

NZD/JPY

While a fortnight old downward slanting trend-line recently triggered the NZDJPY’s pullback, the 77.10–77.00 may become immediate rest for the pair. Given the price-dip below 77.00, the 76.55 and the 76.20 should be observed closely as break of which can fetch the pair to the 75.90, the 75.50 and then to the 61.8% FE level of 74.55. If buyers’ take control of the sentiment and manage to conquer the 77.70 trend-line resistance, the 78.00, the 78.30 and the 78.60 might be their favorites. Also, pair’s successful breach of 78.60 can open the door for its upward trajectory to 79.00 and the 79.30 resistances.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Technical Overview of USD/JPY, CAD/JPY & NZD/JPY: 29.03.2018

USD/JPY

USDJPY’s recent pullback from resistance-turned-support indicate brighter chances for the pair’s extended recovery towards the 107.00 and then to the 107.30 immediate resistances; however, its following advances have to conquer the 107.85-90 horizontal-line in order to aim for the 108.40 and the 108.80 north-side numbers. Alternatively, pair’s dip below 106.40 support-line may drag it to 106.00 before highlighting the 105.80 ascending TL. Should prices continue declining after 105.80, the 105.30, the 105.10 and the 104.60 are likely consecutive rests that can be availed while being short.

CAD/JPY

Even if short-term ascending trend-channel favors the CADJPY’s gradual upside, resistance-line of the channel, at 82.90 now, could trigger the pair’s U-turn towards 82.30 and to the 82.00. If the quote stretches its correction beneath the 82.00, the 81.60 and the 81.25, comprising channel-support, gain sellers’ attention whereas break of 81.25 may fetch the pair to 80.80 and 80.50 supports. Meanwhile, pair’s successful trading beyond 82.90 can activate its rise to 83.50 ahead of confronting the 83.75-80 horizontal-line. Given the pair’s ability to surpass the 83.80 mark, the 84.45, the 84.80 and the 85.25 can please the buyers.

NZD/JPY

Notwithstanding the NZDJPY’s reversal from 77.05-10 nearby resistance-region, the pair is still trading above immediate TL support, at 76.55, which in-turn backs its another attempt to challenge the 77.05-10 area. If the pair manages to break 77.10, the 77.55 and the 78.00, encompassing two downward slanting trend-lines, seem crucial to watch, which if broken could escalate its north-run to the 78.30, the 78.60 and the 79.00 resistances. On the downside, break of 76.55 may reprint 76.40 and the 76.00 on the chart while its further drop below 76.00 can have 75.70, the 75.50 and the 61.8% FE level of 75.25 as supports.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal