‘Follow the Money’: Major Players Betting on Vaccinations to Keep Global Economy Afloat

The coronavirus is in the news again, not last year’s pandemic fueling COVID-19 version, but the fast-spreading Delta variant. While dominating the mainstream news in the United States (See CNN and FoxNews), and globally on business website such as CNBC, Reuters and Bloomberg, to name a few, we’re not really seeing a major impact on the financial markets.

This is interesting to note because the mainstream story is centered on rising infection numbers, the slow pace of vaccinations and what is likely to happen if countries don’t start clamping down on the spread of the virus. In other words, people’s health. Some experts are even calling it a “life or death” situation.

In the financial markets, obviously we’re not seeing the same reaction as we did in 2020 with stocks dropping 20% in a matter of weeks and crude oil testing prices below $20 a barrel. Instead we’re seeing a relative calm.

Is this telling us to “follow the money?” Is this telling us that since the situation is not as bad as last year, there is no need to panic? Are the financial markets indicating there is not enough information yet to understand the impact of this new outbreak? Do we wait for the bad economic numbers or do we anticipate them?

The answer is all of the above.

Of course, I don’t recommend putting your finances ahead of your health. I don’t think anyone is doing that. Traders are making their decisions on what they know at this time. Some are even basing their decisions on their belief in the vaccinations.

In this case, they feel that enough people are vaccinated so major economic shutdowns are warranted at this time. But we’ve seen different reactions all around the globe, which could be adding to the confusion over what to do. Lighten up on the long side? Buy more, start selling? Move to the sidelines?

I don’t think I am going to be able to answer any of these questions in this article, but if I had to center on one, I’d have to say “follow the money”. But I should add that I am vaccinated, so I may be biased.

Here’s What Others are Saying and Doing

Fed’s Powell Downplays Delta Variant’s Threat to the Economy

The spread of the COVID-19 delta variant is raising infections, leading some companies and governments to require vaccinations and raising concerns about the U.S. economic recovery, according to the AP.

But on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell injected a note of reassurance, suggesting that the delta variant poses little threat to the economy, at least so far.

“What we’ve seen is with successive waves of COVID over the past year and some months now,” Powell said at a news conference, “there has tended to be less in the way of economic implications from each wave. We will see whether that is the case with the delta variety, but it’s certainly not an unreasonable expectation.”

“Dining out, traveling, some schools might not reopen,” he said. “We may see economic effects from some of that or it might weigh on the return to the labor market. We don’t have a strong sense of how that will work out, so we’ll be monitoring it carefully.”

More Corporations are Requiring Workers to Get Vaccinated ~ Axios

The federal government in May said that it is legal for companies to require employees to get vaccinated for coronavirus.

Google CEO Sundar Pichai sent an email to employees announcing that those going back to the office needed to be vaccinated. The company is also extending its work-from-home policy through October 18.

Facebook said that anyone going back to work in their U.S. campuses must be vaccinated.

Netflix is requiring that the casts for all of its U.S. productions be vaccinated, as well as everyone who comes in contact with them.

Drop in UK COVID-19 Cases Indicates Infections Surge May Be Past Peak ~ Reuters

Early last week, the UK added to the confusion when it reported its lowest daily total of new coronavirus cases since July 4, adding to signs that a recent surge in infections driven by the spread of the Delta variant may have passed its peak.

Sydney Readies for the Army as Lockdown Fails to Squash Australia Delta Outbreak ~ CNN

Sydney’s poorest neighborhoods on Friday braced for military enforcement of the city’s toughest and longest lockdown of the COVID-19 pandemic as the infection as the infection numbers held persistently high five weeks since restrictions began.

The situation appears to be so bleak in Australia that economists are already predicting a third quarter contraction.

Oil Climbs, Notches Fourth Monthly Gain on Growing Demand – Reuters

The crude oil market is interesting since it sold off sharply early in July when the Delta-variant story first broke. The biggest concern was demand destruction.

Since then, however, both WTI and Brent have recovered enough to post a fourth monthly gain, with demand growing faster than supply and vaccinations expected to alleviate the impact of a resurgence in COVID-19 infections across the world.

Conclusion

The best advice appears to be: bet on the vaccinations to work, keep monitoring the global economy especially output and labor and keep an eye on gasoline demand.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The Week Ahead – Economic Data, Monetary Policy, and COVID-19 in Focus

On the Macro

It’s quieter week ahead on the economic calendar, with 51 stats in focus in the week ending 6th August. In the week prior, 71 stats had also been in focus.

For the Dollar:

From the private sector, ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs for July will be in focus.

Expect the Non-Manufacturing PMI due out on Wednesday to have the greatest impact.

On the labor market front, ADP nonfarm employment change and weekly jobless claims figures on Wednesday and Thursday will also influence.

Nonfarm payrolls at the end of the week, however, will be the key stat of the week.

In the week ending 30th July, the Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.79% to 92.174.

For the EUR:

It’s a busy week on the economic data front.

Private sector PMIs for Italy and Spain together with finalized numbers for France, Germany, and the Eurozone will influence.

Expect Italy and the Eurozone’s PMIs to be key in the week.

German and Eurozone retail sales figures will also influence, with consumption key to a sustainable economic recovery.

For the week, the EUR rose by 0.84% to $1.1870.

For the Pound:

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

Finalized private sector PMIs for July are due out on Monday and Wednesday.

Expect any revisions to the services PMI to have a greater impact in the week.

Construction PMIs also due out, should have a muted impact, however.

While the finalized numbers will influence, the Bank of England monetary policy decision on Thursday will be the main event.

Last week, the IMF talked up the outlook for the British economy. It now rests in the hands of the BoE.

The Pound ended the week up by 1.13% to $1.3904.

For the Loonie:

It’s a busier week ahead on the economic calendar.

Trade data on Thursday and employment change figures on Friday will be the key numbers.

While trade figures will influence, expect the employment change figures to have a greater impact.

The Loonie ended the week up 0.71% to C$1.2475 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

Manufacturing sector data, building permits, retail sales, and trade data will be in focus.

Retail sales and trade data, due out on Wednesday and Thursday, will be the key stats of the week.

On the monetary policy front, however, the RBA monetary policy decision on Tuesday will be the main event.

The Aussie Dollar ended the week down by 0.30% to $0.7344.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s a quiet week ahead. Mid-week, employment change figures will draw interest ahead of inflation expectation numbers on Friday.

With little else for the markets to consider in the week, expect both sets of numbers to provide direction. The markets are expecting a further pickup in inflationary pressures…

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week flat at $0.6974.

For the Japanese Yen:

Finalized private sector PMIs and Tokyo inflation figures will be in focus in the 1st half of the week.

Expect any revision to the PMIs to be of greater influence.

Late in the week, household spending figures will also draw interest.

The Japanese Yen rose by 0.75% to ¥109.720 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

It’s a busier day, with private sector PMIs to provide the markets with direction.

Following NBS numbers from the weekend, the market’s preferred Caixin manufacturing PMI will set the tone. Over the weekend, the NBS Manufacturing PMI fell from 50.9 to 50.4…

With service sector activity a greater component of the economy, Wednesday’s services PMI will also influence, however.

The Chinese Yuan ended the week up by 0.31% to CNY6.4614 against the U.S Dollar.

Geo-Politics

Russia and China continue to be the main areas of interest for the markets. News updates from the Middle East will also need continued monitoring…

The Weekly Wrap – A Dovish FED and Weak Stats Left the Greenback in the Red

The Stats

It was a busy week on the economic calendar, in the week ending 30th July.

A total of 71 stats were monitored, which was up from 33 stats in the week prior.

Of the 71 stats, 37 came in ahead forecasts, with 30 economic indicators coming up short of forecasts. There were 4 stats that were in line with forecasts in the week.

Looking at the numbers, 42 of the stats reflected an upward trend from previous figures. Of the remaining 29 stats, 27 reflected a deterioration from previous.

For the Greenback, disappointing economic data and a dovish FED left the Dollar in the red. The Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.79% to 92.174. In the previous week, the Dollar had risen by 0.24% to 92.906.

Out of the U.S

Consumer sentiment and durable goods orders drew attention early in the week.

In June, durable goods orders ex transportation rose by 0.3%, following a 0.5% increase in May.

More significantly was a pickup in consumer confidence in July. The CB Consumer Confidence Index rose from 128.9 to 129.1. Economists had forecast a decline to 126.0.

On Thursday, jobless claims and 2nd quarter GDP numbers were in focus. The stats were skewed to the negative, however.

In the 2nd quarter, the U.S economy grew by 6.5%. This fell well short of a forecasted growth of 8.5%.

Jobless claims also fell short of expectations, with initial jobless claims falling from 424k to 400k. Economists had forecast a decline to 370k.

At the end of the week, personal spending and inflation figures came in ahead of forecasts, however.

Personal spending rose by 1.0% in June, with the annual rate of inflation seeing a pickup from 3.4% to 3.5%.

While the stats were material, the FED monetary policy and press conference were the main events of the week.

In line with market expectations, the FED left policy unchanged. The FED Chair also looked to assure the markets that there would be no near-term moves, the guidance considered dovish.

Out of the UK

It was a particularly quiet week. There were no major stats for the markets to consider in the week.

The lack of stats left the Pound in the hands of IMF economic growth forecasts, which delivered Pound support.

In the week, the Pound rose by 1.13% to end the week at $1.3904. In the week prior, the Pound had fallen by 0.14% to $1.3748.

The FTSE100 ended the week up by 0.07%, following a 0.28% gain from the previous week.

Out of the Eurozone

Through much of the week, the German economy was in focus.

Business and consumer sentiment figures delivered mixed results. While business sentiment waned in July, consumer confidence remained unchanged, in spite of the reopening of economies.

Unemployment figures from Germany were upbeat. The unemployment fell from 5.9% to 5.7% in July.

Inflationary pressures continued to surge, however, with Germany’s annual rate of inflation accelerating in July to 3.8%.

At the end of the week, 1st estimate GDP numbers and prelim inflation figures were the key stats of the week.

Quarter-on-quarter, the French economy grew by 0.9% versus a forecasted 0.7% in the 2nd quarter.

Germany saw growth of 1.5%, falling short of a forecasted 1.9%. In the 1st quarter, the economy had contracted by 2.1%.

For the Eurozone, the economy grew by 2.0%, coming in ahead of a forecasted 1.5%. The economy had contracted by 0.3% in the previous quarter.

Inflation also ticked up, aligned with member state numbers. According to prelim figures, the Eurozone’s annual rate of inflation accelerated from 1.9% to 2.2% in July, rising above the ECB’s 2% target.

For the week, the EUR rose by 0.84% to $1.1870. In the week prior, the EUR had fallen by 0.30% to $1.1771.

The DAX30 fell by 0.67%, while the CAC40 and the EuroStoxx600 ended the week up by 0.67% and by 0.05% respectively.

For the Loonie

It was a relatively quiet week on the economic data front.

Inflation and GDP numbers were the key stats of the week.

In June, the annual rate of inflation softened from 2.8% to 2.7%, bucking the trend seen across key economies.

The Canadian economy also continued to struggle in May, with the economy contracting by 0.3%. The economy had contracted by 0.5% in April.

In the week ending 30th July, the Loonie rose by 0.71% to C$1.2475. In the week prior, the Loonie had risen by 0.39% to C$1.2564.

Elsewhere

It was a mixed week for the Aussie Dollar and the Kiwi Dollar.

While the Aussie Dollar fell by 0.30% to $0.7344, the Kiwi Dollar ended the week flat at $0.6974.

For the Aussie Dollar

Inflation was the main area of focus. The stats were mixed, however, pegging the Aussie Dollar back.

In the 2nd quarter, the annual rate of inflation surged from 1.1% to 3.8%. The trimmed mean rate of inflation picked up from 1.1% to 1.6%, however.

Wholesale inflation also saw a pickup but at a softer pace than anticipated.

Australia’s annual wholesale rate of inflation ticked up from 0.2% to 2.2%. Economists had forecast a rate of 3.5%.

For the Kiwi Dollar

It was a busier week, with trade and consumer and business confidence in focus.

Trade data disappointed, with the trade surplus narrowing from NZ$498m to NZ$261m in June. The narrowing stemmed from a more marked increase in imports, however, rather than a fall exports, which limited the damage.

Business and consumer confidence figures were also skewed to the negative. The ANZ Business Confidence Index fell from -0.60 to -3.80, with the ANZ Consumer Confidence Index falling from 114 to 113.1.

The week numbers were not enough to sink the Kiwi.

For the Japanese Yen

It was another relatively busy week.

Early in the week, private sector PMIs were in focus. Later in the week industrial production and retail sales also drew attention on Friday.

While prelim private sector PMIs softened slightly in July, industrial production and retail sales impressed.

Industrial production jumped by 6.2% in June, reversing a 6.5% slide from May. More significantly, retail sales increased by 3.1%, reversing a 0.4% decline from May.

The Japanese Yen rose by 0.75% to ¥109.72 against the U.S Dollar. In the week prior, the Yen had fallen by 0.44% to ¥110.550.

Out of China

It was a quiet week on the economic data front. There were no major stats from China for the markets to consider.

In the week ending 30th July, the Chinese Yuan rose by 0.31% to CNY6.4614. In the week prior, the Yuan had ended the week down by 0.03% to CNY6.4813.

The CSI300 and the Hang Seng ended the week down by 4.98% and by 5.46% respectively.

S&P 500 Weekly Price Forecast – S&P 500 Continuing Upward Trajectory

S&P 500 traders have been bullish for quite some time, and even though this week has been a bit quiet, it should be noted that we did pierce the 4400 level, which of course is a relatively bullish sign. The same standard playbook applies to this market, simply that we should be buying dips as the Federal Reserve will continue to keep monetary policy very loose for the foreseeable future, the same thing they have been doing over the last 13 years since the Great Financial Crisis.

S&P 500 Video 02.08.21

There is a nice uptrend line underneath, and of course the 4200 level should offer support. After that, I see the 4000 level as the “floor the market” as there will be a lot of options barriers there, and of course is large, round, psychologically important figures tend to attract a lot of attention. Furthermore, we also have the 50 week EMA racing towards that area and of memory serves me correct, the 200 day EMA is currently sitting right around the same area as well.

To the upside, I think the 4500 level will offer a little bit of hesitation, as it is a big figure, but ultimately this pair does tend to move in 200 point increments, thereby having me target the 4600 level over the next several weeks. Keep in mind that August does tend to be very quiet so do not be surprised at all to see this more of a grind than anything else or even the possibility of a bit of sideways trading. Once September hits, traders come back to work and the momentum start picking up yet again.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Grind Sideways Looking for Next Push Higher

The S&P 500 has pulled back a little bit to kick off the trading session on Friday but turned around to show signs of life again. Because of this, the market looks as if it is ready to go much higher given enough time. I think there is plenty of support underneath at the uptrend line, which of course is followed right along by the 50 day EMA. With this being the case, it is difficult to imagine area where I would be short at, because quite frankly between here and there I anticipate there will be plenty of value hunters.

S&P 500 Video 02.08.21

If we did break down, the 4200 level and of course the 4000 level both offer enticing areas to pick up value, especially the 4000 level as it would be a 10% correction. It should be noted that the 4400 level has caused a bit of noise, but if we can break above there then the 4500 level is my next target but ultimately, I would anticipate seeing markets go much higher than that. My year-end target at the moment is 4600, but quite frankly this market continues to outperform expectations I do not see why it would be any different now.

The Federal Reserve has stated this week that it was not going to get close to tapering anytime soon, so that continues to drive the market higher. We are in the midst of earnings season which of course was very strong, but I think that was already expected considering what we had seen over the last year.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Stocks Retreat As Amazon Drags Down Tech Shares

Stocks Are Under Pressure Ahead Of The Weekend

S&P 500 futures are moving lower in premarket trading as Amazon‘s disappointing quarterly results put pressure on tech stocks.

Amazon released its second-quarter report yesterday, after the market close. The company reported revenue of $113.1 billion and GAAP earnings of $15.12 per share, missing analyst estimates on revenue and beating them on earnings.

The market focused on the disappointing revenue performance and weak third-quarter guidance as Amazon forecasted revenue of $106 billion – $112 billion in Q3 2021.

Currently, the stock is down by about 7% in premarket trading, and Nasdaq futures are down by roughly 1%. It remains to be seen whether traders will rush to buy the dip in Amazon shares and other tech stocks ahead of the weekend or choose to take some profits off the table near record highs for S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

Personal Income Increased By 0.1% In June

U.S. has just released Personal Income and Personal Spending reports for June. The reports indicated that Personal Income increased by 0.1% month-over-month in June compared to analyst consensus whcih called for a decline of 0.3%. Personal Spending grew by 1% compared to analyst consensus of 0.7%.

Today, traders will also have a chance to take a look at the final reading of Consumer Confidence report for July. Analysts expected that Consumer Confidence declined from 85.5 in June to 80.8 in July.

WTI Oil Settles Above The $73 Level As Traders Shrug Off Virus Worries

WTI oil managed to get above the $73 level and continues to move higher as traders bet that demand for oil will continue to increase despite the recent surge in the number of new COVID-19 cases which was caused by the Delta variant of coronavirus.

Recent data indicates that crude inventories are moving lower, which is bullish for oil. Today, oil-related stocks will have a good chance to continue their rebound after strong results from Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Ferrari’s Revenue to More Than Double in Q2; Target Price $238

The luxury sports car maker Ferrari is expected to report earnings of $1.26 per share for the second quarter, representing a 3,050% increase over $0.04 per share a year earlier.

The company, known for its prancing horse logo, would post revenue growth of over 107% to around $1.3 billion. According to ZACKS Research, the company has beaten earnings per share (EPS) estimates in three of the last four quarters.

The U.S. listed Ferrari shares have slumped about 6% so far this year. The stock closed 1.88% higher at $216.21 on Thursday.

Analyst Comments

“Growth potential and strong execution. Global shipments of >11k units in 2021, growing at a 9.1% CAGR to 2030 ending at ~22k shipments. Adj. EBITDA margins rise to 35% in 2021 on improved mix and pricing after launching 5 new models in 2020 and 2 in 2021,” noted Adam Jonas, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

Ferrari trades at a justified premium to luxury brands, in line with luxury leader, Hermes, albeit with more opportunity to grow organically via: new customers, new segments and geographically in China & Asia-Pac, as well as exhibiting a unique moat with a world-renowned brand and a 12+ month customer order book.”

Ferrari Stock Price Forecast

Nine analysts who offered stock ratings for Ferrari in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months of $238.63 with a high forecast of $281.00 and a low forecast of $202.00.

The average price target represents a 10.35% change from the last price of $216.24. From those nine analysts, four rated “Buy”, four rated “Hold” and one rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley gave the stock price forecast of $265 with a high of $350 under a bull scenario and $160 under the worst-case scenario. The firm gave an “Overweight” rating on the luxury automaker’s stock.

Several other analysts have also updated their stock outlook. BofA slashed the price objective to $281 from $287. UBS Group cut their price objective to $238 from $247 and set a buy rating.

NASDAQ Bearish Divergence, Amazon’s After-Hour Losses Weighing on US Futures Overnight

U.S. stock index futures are down sharply in Friday’s pre-market session as a disappointing earnings report from Amazon.com threatened to dampen an otherwise strong month ahead of July’s final day of trading. The early price action has put the major futures indexes in a position to post a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could mean a weak start to August.

Early Trading Results

At 04:41 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4378.25, down 33.50 or -0.76%. September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are at 34863, down 111 or -0.32% and September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index is trading 34861, down 113 or -0.32%.

Possible Bearish Divergence

On Thursday, the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial touched record highs but the NASDAQ Composite underperformed. This created a divergence in the major indexes, suggesting weakness in the technology sector.

Weighing on the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite during the regular session were shares of Facebook, which tumbled 4% after the social media company’s earnings report.

A disappointing IPO from online brokerage firm Robinhood helped cap NASDAQ’s gains throughout the regular session. The stock opened at $38 per share on Thursday, but eventually closed its debut session more than 8% lower at $34.82 per share.

The weakness carried over into the after-hours and pre-market sessions after e-commerce giant Amazon and social media platform Pinterest released their earnings reports to investors.

Amazon equity sank 7.4% in extended trading after it reported its first quarterly revenue miss in three years and gave weaker guidance. The move in Amazon’s stock helped weigh on NASDAQ-100 futures. Pinterest fell even further, down 19%, after saying it lost monthly users during the three months ended June 30.

Thursday Recap

Thursday’s positive session came despite a government report that showed U.S. second-quarter gross domestic product accelerated 6.5% on an annualized basis, considerably less than the 8.4% Dow Jones estimate. Meanwhile, weekly initial claims surprisingly came in higher-than-expected.

Helping to underpin the markets was the Fed news from late Wednesday. Many investors were relieved that the Federal Reserve signaled no imminent plans for dialing back asset purchases.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also noted that while the economy has come a long way since the COVID-19 recession, it still has a ways to go before the central bank considers adjusting its easy-money policies.

Near-Term Outlook

The bearish divergence between the NASDAQ and the other major indexes could be an early sign that a major top is forming. If the tech-heavy NASDAQ trades sharply lower, it will drag the technology sector of the S&P 500 with it. The Dow is not likely to feel as much pain since it is tech unweighted.

The U.S. stock markets could be facing several near-term headwinds including summer vacation until after the U.S. Labor Day holiday. This would lead to low volume trading sessions. Overvaluation is another concern as well as the coronavirus outbreak.

One major concern is that investors won’t have a clue as to what the Fed is planning to do about tapering until it meets on September 21-22.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – 4400 Level Gets Cleared

The S&P 500 has rallied a bit during the course of the trading session on Thursday as we continue to find plenty of reasons to go higher. The S&P 500 is moving based upon the idea of liquidity measures and of course the fact that Jerome Powell was so dovish certainly helps the situation as well. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will continue to find plenty of buyers on dips based upon that, and of course the fact that we have a lot of support underneath. The 4400 level itself of course is an area that will attract a certain amount of attention, but beyond that we also have the 50 day EMA and the uptrend line.

S&P 500 Video 30.07.21

If we were to break down below there, then the 4200 level should be supportive, and then the 4000 level underneath would be the “floor in the market”, as we have the small gap and of course the 200 day EMA coming into the picture to offer a bit of support. If we were to break down below there, then I would be a buyer of puts, but I would not necessarily short the market flat out.

To the upside, the 4500 level is a target for the short term, as it is a big figure that a lot of people should pay close attention to. If we can break above there, then we will probably go looking towards the 4600 level, as the market tends to move in 200 point increments, as the past action has shown. Ultimately, this is a market that I have no interest in shorting and do not see an opportunity to do so anytime in the near future.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500, Dow Scale All-Time Highs as Economy Picks Up Pace

By Sagarika Jaisinghani

Ford Motor Co jumped 5.9% to hit a more than three-week high as it lifted its profit forecast for the year.

Industrials Boeing Co and Caterpillar Inc, and banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co, Bank of America Corp and Citigroup Inc gained between 0.4% and 1%, a day after the Federal Reserve said it was not yet time to start withdrawing its massive pandemic-era monetary stimulus.

The central bank’s comments also assuaged fears that a rise in cases of the Delta variant would hurt a solid U.S. economic rebound. Data on Thursday showed gross domestic product increased at a 6.5% annualized rate in the second quarter, while jobless claims fell to 400,000 for the week ended July 24.

“What really stands out (in the GDP data) is consumption; it really means that consumers are carrying the economy,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities.

Trading on Wall Street in the past few months has also been dictated by rising inflation, and fears that higher prices would not be as transient as expected have recently knocked the benchmark S&P 500 off record highs.

Investors are now focused on the June reading of the personal consumption expenditures price index – the Fed’s main inflation measure, which is due on Friday.

“Once we have normalized our supply chains, there won’t be much of this inflation pressure, which can be achievable in the next six months, but the spread of the Delta variant is a wild card, which could derail the recovery process,” said Arthur Weise, chief investment officer at Kingsland Growth Advisors.

At 9:42 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.49%, the S&P 500 was up 0.44%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.36%.

Trading in the shares of technology behemoths Apple Inc, Amazon.com Inc, Netflix Inc and Google-parent Alphabet Inc was muted.

The group has tended to underperform the broader market during times of economic optimism, when investors prefer stocks such as mining and energy, which are expected to benefit more from a steady business recovery.

 

Graphic: U.S. reflation trade hurts Nasdaq, lifts Dow: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/zjpqkqakwpx/Pasted%20image%201627564664970.png

 

Facebook Inc fell 3.2% as it warned revenue growth would “decelerate significantly” following Apple’s recent update to its iOS operating system that would impact the social media giant’s ability to target ads.

KFC-owner Yum Brands Inc, on the other hand, gained 3.8% after beating expectations for quarterly sales.

China’s Didi Global jumped 14.4% after a report said it was considering going private to placate Chinese authorities and compensate investor losses since the ride-hailing firm listed in the United States. Didi denied what it called a “rumor” that it could go private.

Focus later in the day will be on shares of Robinhood Markets Inc, which is scheduled to start trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker “HOOD” after the company raised $2.1 billion in its initial public offering on Wednesday.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners 3.36-to-1 on the NYSE and 2.52-to-1 on the Nasdaq.

The S&P index recorded 40 new 52-week highs and one new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 46 new highs and 10 new lows.

(Reporting by Sagarika Jaisinghani, Sruthi Shankar and Shashank Nayar in Bengaluru; editing by Uttaresh.V and Aditya Soni)

Exxon Mobil’s Revenue to Nearly Double in Q2; Target Price $68

Exxon Mobil, an American multinational oil and gas entity, is expected to report its second-quarter earnings of $1.0 per share, which represents year-over-year growth of over 240%, up from a loss of $0.70 per share seen in the same quarter a year ago.

The U.S. largest publicly traded oil company would post revenue growth of over 90% to around $63 billion. The company has beaten earnings per share (EPS) estimates in three of the last four quarters.

Exxon Mobil shares have surged more than 40% so far this year.

Analyst Comments

“The shares of Exxon Mobil have observed a 10% decline in the past month as benchmark prices declined due to the easing of production curtailments by OPEC. The company is committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet and returning capital to shareholders in the coming years. Despite an uncertain demand-supply environment, the company’s second-quarter results are likely to benefit from high benchmark prices, assisting deleveraging plans. The second-quarter revenues are likely to grow by around 100% (y-o-y) resulting in strong earnings expansion over last year’s depressed number,” noted analysts at Trefis.

Exxon Mobil Stock Price Forecast

Sixteen analysts who offered stock ratings for Exxon Mobil in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months of $68.73 with a high forecast of $90.00 and a low forecast of $55.00.

The average price target represents an 18.05% change from the last price of $58.22. From those 16 analysts, seven rated “Buy”, eight rated “Hold” and one rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley gave the stock price forecast of $84 with a high of $100 under a bull scenario and $41 under the worst-case scenario. The firm gave an “Overweight” rating on the oil and gas company’s stock.

“Improving FCF outlook and dividend sustainability. With a more constructive commodity price outlook, lower capital spending, and additional cash operating cost savings, the dividend is covered in 2021 and averages >100% over the next 5-years on our estimates. Improving dividend sustainability supports yield compression for Exxon Mobil (XOM) relative to CVX,” noted Devin McDermott, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“Cost cuts defend the dividend. Exxon Mobil (XOM) reduced 2022-25 spending plans to $20-25 B from $30-35 B, improving dividend sustainability while limiting further pull on the balance sheet. Additionally, XOM is targeting $6 B in structural operating cost reductions which should put upward pressure on consensus FCF estimates.”

Several other analysts have also updated their stock outlook. Piper Sandler raised the target price to $69 from $63. Independent Research upped the price objective to $56.00 from $55.00. Jefferies lifted the stock price forecast to $58 from $55.

Check out FX Empire’s earnings calendar

A Profit Warning Knocks PayPal Down Like a Rock

PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL), one of 2020’s hottest stocks, is trading lower by more than 9% in Thursday’s pre-market after issuing downside profit guidance for the third quarter and full year. The digital payments juggernaut beat Q2 earnings-per share (EPS) estimates by just $0.03, posting a profit of $1.16, while revenue rose 18.6% year-over-year to $6.24 billion, just missing $6.27 billion consensus. Total payment volume during the quarter grew 40%, or 36% on a currency neutral basis.

Pandemic Hangover

The company boasts a 55.7 price-to-earnings ratio (P/E), higher than American Express Co. (AXP) but on par with Visa Inc. (V) and MasterCard Inc. (MA). The weak outlook exposes vulnerability to a pandemic ‘hangover’ that many 2020 beneficiaries have reported in their quarterly results. Simply stated, the rapid transition into digital payments, streaming services, and at-home food delivery yielded a one-time cash influx that’s now reverting to historical performance.

The selloff comes just three business days before PayPal raises rates for many merchant accounts. Originally announced in June, the news triggered a strong rally into July but Q3 and full year profit warnings suggest the company miscalculated and now expects to lose customers. It may also have underestimated the growing number of choices in the digital payment space, heralding an era in which it will need to compete more forcefully for market share.

Wall Street and Technical Outlook

Wall Street has been wildly bullish on PayPal for months, holding like glue to a ‘Buy’ rating now based upon 35 ‘Buy’, 5 ‘Overweight’, 6 ‘Hold’, and 1 ‘Sell’ recommendation. Price targets currently range from a low of $250 to a Street-high $375 while the stock is set to open Thursday’s session more than $50 below the median $330 target. A quick uptick into the median price seems unlikely, given weak guidance, because it would require breaking out to a new high.

PayPal posted a phenomenal 219% return in 2020 and continued to book upside into the February 2021 high at 309.14. A decline into March found support in the 220s while the bounce into July mounted the first quarter peak by less than one point ahead of this morning’s selloff. The reversal reinforces resistance above 300 while setting up a test of 50-day moving average support at 285. A breakdown is possible given downside momentum, exposing an unpleasant trip to the March low.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Disclosure: the author held no positions in aforementioned securities at the time of publication. 

Stocks Move Higher As Fed Stays Dovish

Fed Chair Jerome Powell Calmed Markets

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve left the interest rate unchanged and maintained the current pace of asset purchases.

As usual, Fed Chair Jerome Powell did his best to calm markets. He has once again reiterated that higher inflation was transitory and also added that the economy learned how to live with the virus, although the Delta variant of coronavirus remained a threat.

Most likely, the Fed will provide more details during the Jackson Hole conference in late August, but traders bet that the current pace of asset purchases will remain unchanged in 2021, which is bullish for stocks and bearish for the U.S. dollar.

Initial Jobless Claims Declined To 400,000

U.S. has just released Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims reports. Initial Jobless Claims report indicated that 400,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in a week. Analysts expected that Initial Jobless Claims would total 380,000, so the report was worse than expected.

U.S. has also provided second-quarter GDP Growth Rate report which indicated that GDP increased by 6.5% quarter-over-quarter compared to analyst consensus which called for growth of 8.5%.

It remains to be seen whether the disappointing GDP report will hurt stocks today as traders may stay focused on the dovish message from the Fed. Currently, S&P 500 futures are gaining some ground in premarket trading.

Gold Rallies As U.S. Dollar Declines

Gold has finally managed to get away from the $1800 level as U.S. dollar gained strong downside momentum after Fed’s comments. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the U.S. dollar against a broad basket of currencies, has managed to get to the test of the support at the 92 level which was bearish for precious metals.

Silver has also enjoyed a strong rebound, and it is currently trying to settle above the resistance at $25.50.

Yesterday, gold mining stocks showed some strength, and they look ready for a strong start of today’s trading session.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Fed Nothingburger, Dollar Lower, Focus on GDP, PCE

It was a rather pedestrian FOMC Statement day on Wednesday. There is GDP data incoming, and the widely Fed-followed Core PCE Price Index data comes out on Friday. What can we take away from the FOMC Statement and press conference?

Rates unchanged. No rush to raise interest rates. Inflation should persist.

No surprises here.

However, there was some notable price action in the US Dollar Index during Wednesday’s session. The US Dollar Index initially rose on the FOMC statement at 2:00 PM. During the press conference, the USD fell as Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned that inflation should persist for several months. It is noteworthy price action and can be a forward-looking indicator for the direction of other asset prices.

First, let’s take a look at the daily chart of the $DXY:

Figure 1 – US Dollar Index November 1, 2020 – July 28, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.com

As we know, the US Dollar has been in a longer-term downtrend. The repeating pattern has been lower daily highs. Short the dollar was a heavily crowded trade recently that we examined and discussed. After reaching oversold conditions, a quick bounce occurred. However, with no rush to raise interest rates and Fed open market operations continuing, the $DXY could try the downside once again. This downward move could impact the prices of commodities even further to the upside. There is a key Fibonacci level that was not quite reached in the index on its last downside attempt (near $88.41).

Figure 2 – US Dollar Index July 28, 2021 – July 28, 2021, 1-minute Candles Source stooq.com

I find value in this type of analysis; when you can take a daily/longer-term trend/outlook and then take an intraday peek on a day such as a Fed day. I would have guessed that the market would be factoring in further inflation already. However, based on the $DXY behavior intraday, it appears that the US Dollar may want to get set to go and retest the recent low near $89.50.

GDP Data, Core PCE

On Thursday morning, we are getting GDP (q/q), and on Friday morning we will get the Core PCE data. GDP can be a market mover, and the Fed does like to monitor the PCE data for inflation signals.

As the US Dollar may weaken some, a place to park some cash could be in the UDN – Invesco DB US Index Bearish ETF. I wouldn’t expect any home runs here; the ETF is unleveraged, but a 2 – 3% pop could be in the cards here if the $DXY wants to test its recent lows.

Figure 3 – Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund – September 4, 2020 – July 28, 2021, Daily Candles Source stockcharts.com

UDN is doing its job rather well and is inversely tracking the US Dollar Index at an efficient rate. Other traders could use the $DXY product on ICE if their accounts are enabled for it. ICE passes through the monthly fee for its products to retail traders (somewhere in the neighborhood of $110 per month) to trade these products and receive quotes.

So, using UDN can give traders some pure exposure to a dollar decline. We will be eyeballing the $21.48 – $21.64 levels as potential TP targets for now. Levels and sentiment can change quickly, so stay tuned!

Now, for our premium subscribers, let’s review the other markets that we are covering. Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.

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For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Rafael Zorabedian
Stock Trading Strategist

Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

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This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Trading, including technical trading, is speculative and high-risk. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in trading, and it is not suitable for everyone. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment when trading futures, foreign currencies, margined securities, shorting securities, and trading options. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Rafael Zorabedian, Sunshine Profits’ employees, affiliates, as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, futures contracts, options or other financial instruments including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a risk of loss in trading.

 

Options Point To A Bear Market

Summary

  • Bonds outperform stocks during critical market declines.
  • The business cycle provides valuable information about these periods.
  • The options market is adding to the bearish signals for the market and the business cycle.

The business cycle is a powerful force investors should use to their advantage. It has been saying to be careful and to start adopting a defensive strategy.

Chart, pie chart

Description automatically generated

Source: The Peter Dag Portfolio Strategy and Management

The previous business cycle started in 2016, peaked in 2018, and ended in March 2020. The current business cycle began violently in March 2020. Its force created strong dislocations, further exacerbated by several stimulus programs and easy monetary policy.

The outcome has been a rapid ramp-up in production to replenish depleted inventories. The business had to aggressively buy commodities to produce goods, hire workers and pay higher wages, and increase borrowing to finance operations and improve productive capacity.

It is no coincidence most commodities have been soaring – from soybeans to lumber to metals to crude oil. Bond yields also jumped, worrying Wall Street about soaring interest rates. Inflation rose and is still rising rapidly.

These are the type of developments experienced toward the end of Phase 2 (see above chart) and cause the business cycle to transition from Phase 2 to Phase 3 due to their negative feedback.

In fact, the increase in inflation and interest rates has a negative impact on consumers’ purchasing power. The weaker trends in home and auto sales – two major sectors of the economy – are already reflecting the negative consequences of rising inflation, interest rates, and home prices.

Business, however, is still busy replenishing inventories. It has not yet been recognized demand is gradually waning. Eventually, manufacturers will realize they overbuilt inventories when profits fail expectations. The decision will have to be made to reduce production, reduce the purchase of raw materials, and reduce borrowing. The business cycle is not yet at this point, but we are very close to this defining moment.

Since the main cause of most slowdowns is rising inflation and rising interest rates, the slowdown will end when the inflation and interest rates decline enough to re-establish the purchasing power of consumers.

The patterns of previous business cycles suggest the decline could last one to two years depending on the damage created by rising inflation and interest rates to consumers’ purchasing power.

Chart, line chart

Description automatically generated

Source: StockCharts.com, The Peter Dag Portfolio Strategy and ManagementThe above chart is an updated version of the one discussed in previous articles. It shows an indicator derived from the option market (lower panel). The ratio of SPY divided by TLT is shown in the upper panel. A rising ratio means the returns from SPY are greater than those from TLT. A declining ratio means the returns from TLT are greater than those from SPY.

What makes this gauge particularly interesting is it has the same turning points of the business cycle indicator as discussed in the articles listed at the beginning.

The business cycles reflected by the option market are those of 2009-20012, 2012-2016, and 2016-2020. The most recent business cycle started in March 2020 and rose sharply until the beginning of 2021.

Growth, however, is slowing down and we are close to a peak in the business cycle. We are possibly already in Phase 3. This phase is recognized by weakness in commodities, a peak in bond yields, fluttering stock prices, and long-duration Treasury bonds outperforming the S&P 500.

The peak in the option market indicator confirms what we have been writing in the previous articles – total returns from long-dated Treasury bonds (TLT) will continue to outperform the returns of SPY as they did in the previous three cycles (see above chart).

What is the option market indicator saying about the strength of the market?

Source: StockChart.com, The Peter Dag Portfolio Strategy and Management

The above chart shows the graphs of SPY in the upper panel with its 200-day moving average and the graph of the option market indicator in the lower panel. The message is quite simple. The option market indicator will have to decline to much lower levels to signal a major buying opportunity.

If history repeats itself, the decline of this indicator is likely to last at least one year. The market, meanwhile, will struggle to make further gains as it did in previous cycles. This indicator is regularly updated in each issue of the Peter Dag Portfolio Strategy and Management. Readers of this article may enter an exclusive complimentary subscription on www.peterdag.com.

Key takeaways

  • Business activity will slow down as long as the option market indicator declines.
  • Commodities and yields will decline as long as the option market indicator declines.
  • Total returns from TLT will continue to outperform those of SPY as long as the option market indicator declines.
  • A major buy opportunity in stocks will occur when the option market indicator declines to much lower levels – a process likely to last at least one year.

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to 4390.75 Pivot Sets Early Tone

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are edging lower in the pre-market session on Thursday after finishing unchanged the previous session. The listless price action is the result of the Federal Reserve offering no clues about when it might start reducing or tapering its purchases of government bonds, even though it said in its monetary policy statement the economic recovery is on track.

At 04:29 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4388.00, down 5.75 or -0.13%.

In after-hours trading, PayPal and Facebook are down 5% and 3% respectively, after warning of significant growth slowdown as they reported quarterly earnings. But, shares of Ford jumped nearly 4% after it raised it 2021 outlook, saying it’s selling more cars that are more expensive, though it missed analysts’ estimates on earnings.

Looking ahead to Thursday, Amazon, Pinterest and Anheuser-Busch are set to report earnings Thursday. Traders will also watch out for the latest readings on initial jobless claims and pending home sales.

Daily September E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 4416.75 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through 4224.00.

The minor range is 4416.75 to 4364.75. The index is currently straddling its pivot at 4390.75.

The short-term range is 4224.00 to 4416.75. If the selling pressure continues over the near-term then look for an eventual test of its retracement zone at 4320.25 to 4297.50.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index early in the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at 4390.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4390.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move is able to generate enough upside momentum then look for buyers to make a run at the 4416.75 record high. This is a big “if”, however, since the market looks top heavy.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4390.75 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a possible test of this week’s low at 4364.75.

Although it is neither a minor nor a main bottom, 4364.75 could be the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside since the daily chart indicates there is no major support until the short-term retracement zone at 4320.25 to 4297.50.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Today’s Market Wrap Up and a Glimpse Into Thursday

Stocks finished the day mixed after the Fed revealed that the economy is on track for employment and inflation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 were each down fractionally, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq added 100 points to end modestly higher.

As the economy continues on the path to recovery, the Fed tipped its hand, saying it would begin to pull back from its asset purchasing activity. The major indices still remain close to all-time high levels.

One winner in the Dow was Boeing, which surprised Wall Street by swinging to a profit for the first time almost in two years.

Stocks to Watch

The tech earnings parade rolled on, with Facebook taking the spotlight today. Mark Zuckerberg’s company sees 3.51 billion people flock to its platforms,  including Facebook, Instagram, Messenger and Whatsapp, each month, up 12% YoY.

Facebook’s Q2 revenue came in at USD 29.08 billion, continuing a trend that Google, Microsoft and Apple similarly experienced in the quarter. While Facebook’s Q2 results topped Wall Street’s estimates, revenue growth is not expected to be sustained at these levels, the company warned.

PayPal bucked the positive trend in corporate America after its Q2 results disappointed. Worse, the payments company isn’t expecting things to get much better for Q3. Investors punished the stock in extended hours, sending shares lower by about 6%.

Ford shares found a reason to rally thanks to a stronger than expected Q2 in which the company was profitable. The automaker lifted its Q3 forecast on the heels of robust demand for its Ford Bronco SUV.

Shares of cannabis company Tilray climbed more than 25% in the wake of a profitable fiscal Q4. Tilray CEO Irwin Simon sees a world in which marijuana will become legalized at the federal level in the U.S. in the next 18-24 months.

Look Ahead

On Thursday, an advance look at GDP comes out at 8:30 a.m. ET. Wells Fargo economists predict that the economy grew at an annualized pace of 9.1% in the quarter. The economy has come a long way since last year’s pandemic-fueled contraction, which lasted for two months. The economists forecast that consumer spending and business investments were strong in Q2, while supply chain constraints persisted.

Amazon’s earnings come out on Thursday. Bitcoin investors might be listening to the call to hear if the company addresses the recent crypto-related drama.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Market Continues Move Higher

The S&P 500 has initially gapped lower to kick off the trading session in the futures market on Wednesday, but then turned around to show signs of strength again. Ultimately, the S&P 500 should continue to see plenty of buyers, especially as we see more than enough reasons to believe that the liquidity measures should continue. The Federal Reserve is going to have a statement later in the day, which of course will have a major influence on where we go next but let us not be overly dramatic here: the Federal Reserve will not do anything to disrupt Wall Street.

S&P 500 Video 29.07.21

At this point, if we do get a significant pullback, it is likely that it will end up being a buying opportunity. The 50 day EMA and the uptrend line both offer support, and therefore I think that would be the first major support level. If we break down below there, then it is likely that the market could go looking towards the 4200 level. Breaking below that level then opens up the possibility of a move down to the 4000 handle where I see a small gap that could come into play and offer plenty of support. Furthermore, we also have the 200 day EMA coming into the picture, which allows for a longer-term trade.

If we were to break down below that level then it is possible that I would be a buyer of puts, but that is about it as the Federal Reserve will not let the market fall too far, and given enough time would do plenty of things to keep the market afloat.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Straddling 4390.75 Pivot Looking for Direction

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading flat shortly after the cash market opening. The market is being supported by a strong performance by Google-parent, Alphabet, but gains are being limited ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy statement at 18:00 GMT and Fed Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference. Investor are hoping the Fed sheds some light on the impact of rising inflation and the Delta variant on its monetary policy stimulus.

At 14:26 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4395.00, up 0.50 or +0.01%.

In stock related news, Alphabet popped more than 4% after the tech giant posted quarterly results, registering a 69% jump in advertising. Pfizer shares rose about 2% after the company reported stronger-than-expected earnings and raised its 2021 sales forecast for the COVID vaccine.

Daily September E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 4416.75 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 4424.00 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up, but a new minor top was formed at 4416.75 after Tuesday’s sell-off.

The minor range is 4416.75 to 4364.75. The index is currently straddling its 50% level or pivot at 4390.75.

The short-term range is 4224.00 to 4416.75. Its retracement zone at 4320.25 to 4297.50 is the primary downside target and nearest value area.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at 4390.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4390.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for buyers to make a run at the record high of 4416.75.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4390.75 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is 4364.75. If this price fails and selling volume increases then look for an acceleration to the downside over the short-run with 4320.25 to 4297.50 the next likely target area.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Boeing Posts First Quarterly Profit Since 2019

Dow component Boeing Co. (BA) is trading at a two-week high in Wednesday’s pre-market after posting the first profit since the third quarter of 2019. The aerospace giant earned $0.40 per-share in Q2 2021, $1.12 higher than estimates, while $44 billion in revenue matched expectations, marking a 44.0% year-over-year increase. The total backlog at the end of the quarter stood at a respectable $363 billion while the company secured new orders for 234 737 airliners and 31 freighter aircraft.

Airline Industry Crosswinds

The 737 MAX is returning to the friendly skies at a rapid pace, with the delivery of more than 130 new aircraft and more than 190 previously grounded aircraft resuming service, translating into nearly 95,000 revenue flights and more than 218,000 flight hours. The company release said little about the potential impact of the Delta variant on the commercial airline industry but that’s likely to be discussed in the 10:30am Eastern conference call.

However, its isn’t all good news for Boeing, with China still withholding certification of the MAX and 787 production delays needed to address FAA mandated inspections and reworking. In addition, business travel is expected to recover at a much slower pace than leisure travel, with the Delta variant forcing many corporations to put off reintegration plans at the same time that international destinations rethink their customs requirements.

Wall Street and Technical Outlook

Wall Street consensus is mixed despite the return of the MAX 737, with an ‘Overweight’ rating based upon 11 ‘Buy’, 2 ‘Overweight’, 11 ‘Hold’, and 2 ‘Sell’ recommendations. Price targets currently range from a low of $200 to a Street-high $314 while the stock is set to open Wednesday’s session more than $40 below the median $272 target. This placement favors share gains in coming weeks, possibly dampened by continued pandemic headwinds.

Boeing posted an all-time high at 446 in 2019, just before the 737 MAX crashed in Ethiopia. The subsequent decline accelerated in the first quarter of 2020, dropping price to a 7-year low in double-digits, ahead of an uptick that ran into a buzzsaw of resistance above 200. Price action since December has tested the 200-day moving average repeatedly while accumulation has dropped to the lowest low since September 2020, when the stock was trading in the 160s. Given uncertain travel conditions, this sideways action could easily persist into 2022.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Disclosure: the author held no positions in aforementioned securities at the time of publication.