Corn Falls for the Fourth Session, Coffee Up to Fresh 2019 Highs

Corn and soybeans are trading down on the first day of the week as investors are digesting USDA reports on planting and emerging armyworm findings in China.

However, the US government said that farmers planted more corn than expected by market watchers.

“I think the USDA is sending the message that corn acres got planted – regardless of what some of these farmers up here in the Midwest see outside their kitchen windows,” Karl Setzer, market analyst for Agrivisor, said to Reuters in a recent note.

Nevertheless, the United States Department of Agriculture reported that corn planting progress was below average the whole spring.

According to the USDA annual acreage report, farmers seeded 91.7 million of acres of corn and 80 million acres of soybeans, well-below of government forecast of 92.8 million corn acres and 84.6 million acres of soybeans.

With all that information, crops chief at the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Lance Honig tweeted that the agency will resurvey data in 14 states now and it will release another report on August 12.

Grains report for July 1, 2019

Corn daily chart July 1
Corn daily chart July 1

Corn is extending its decline for the fourth straight session as the grain is trading 2.60% down on Monday and testing the 4.060 area. The unit is expected to test the 4.000 level anytime this week.

Soybeans are trading down on the day as the unit fails to keep prices above the 9.000 mark for the second straight day. The oilseed is now moving at 8.885, 0.80% down on the day, however, the unit remains well-supported by the 8.815 area.

Wheat broke Friday’s lows at 5.160, and it is extending losses to trade as low as 5.030, its lowest level since June 11. On the day, wheat is posting 2.7% declines at the current 5.065.

Sugar is posting gains on the first day of the week as investors are resuming Thursday’s jump from 0.1200 to 0.1260, and posterior Friday’s setback to 0.1230. The unit is now testing the 0.1260 again with technical indicators and fundamental factors favoring the upside.

Investors in sugar are now focused on the weather of India as the weather department reported on Sunday that the country has its driest June in Five years due to a delay in monsoon rains.

Coffee broke above the 108.00 resistance on Monday, and it jumped to trade as high as 110.50, its highest level since December 3. Prices of coffee have been trading positive since June 24 with five sessions with gains on the back of weather.

Grains to Close June With Gains Amid Complicated Weather

Grains are trading positive on Friday ahead of the well-waited meeting between Trump and Chinese president Xi this Saturday.

Agricultural futures have performed with benefits in the week and month, but gains are now limited due to month-end rebalancing as investors want to take profits and include it on their books.

Weather is still a concern for agricultural investors as heavy rains remain in the farm belt of the United States, but dry conditions in Canada. Also, hot temperatures in Europe and a weak monsoon season in India are raising concerns about a grains supply crisis in the months to come.

India experiences weak monsoon rains

In India, monsoon rains were below average for the fourth consecutive week according to reports. Besides, the forecast is expecting the conditions to last in the short term.

As monsoon is crucial for Indian farmers, weak rains are raising concerns about the farmers’ production and the country economy. Agriculture means 15% of the global Indian economy.

With weak monsoon, sugar and other grains are getting delays in the crop. So sugar prices are hot.

Grain prices report for June 28

Soybean found support at the 20-day moving average level on 8.823 on Thursday, and the unit is now trading 0.50% positive at 8.900 on Friday. The unit is closing its first negative week in the last three as the oilseed was unable to break above the 9.150 for a second consecutive week.

On the month, Soybeans prices performed its second period of gains, and it extended its recovery from 7.790, May minimum reached on May 13, to test the mentioned 9.150. Soy is closing the quarter with a 1.75% gain since April.

Corn is ready to close its third positive month in a row as the grain is trading at 4.360, 4.0% positive in June. However, monthly gains were moderated after the unit is closing its second week with losses. Corn is 0.75% down on the week, and finishing Friday with a 0.21% daily decline.

Wheat is trading in consolidation mode on Friday as investors are taking profits after the unit jumped to highs since August 2018 at 5.510 on Thursday. Currently, prices of wheat are moving around 5.380, 1.15% negative in the day.

Weekly, wheat is advancing 2.85% in the last five trading days, ready to close its five weeks of gains in the previous seven. The unit is also closing its second month of benefits as the bushel is performing 8.0% positive in June.

Coffee is trading positive for the fourth consecutive day as the unit is consolidating levels above 106.00. Coffee is ready to close its second week of gains in a row, as well as its second month of profits. It is essential for the grain that the unit is finishing the week and the month above the 100.00 level. However, be aware that it could be due to month-end rebalancing.

Sugar consolidates gains above 0.1250

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Sugar is posting gains on Friday for the second day in a row as the unit is consolidating levels after the rally performed on Thursday. The unit is positive due to weather problems in India.

Currently, sugar is trading 0.24% gains on Friday as it is moving at 0.1255. On the week, sugar is posting gains as it has almost recovered all losses suffered in the previous week. This would be its fifth week of gains in the last six.

On the month, sugar is closing its first month of gains since February. June is ready to finish 5.27% positive as the unit extended its recovery from May’s lows at 0.1115.

Grains go profit taking; Coffee up to 2019 highs, sugar rallies amid monsoon rains

Soybeans and corn are trading down as investors are closing positions ahead of the end of the quarter. Coffee, wheat, and sugar jumped to highs on Thursday. All about weather conditions.

Prices for grains are supported by wet weather in the United States, hot temperatures in Europe, a lower than expected plating in Canada and heavy monsoon rains in India.

Soybeans down amid profit taking

Soybean prices are falling for the third day on Thursday as the unit is extending its rejection from the 9.100 area and investors are closing positions ahead of the end of the quarter.

Currently, soybean is trading at 8.870, 0.45% down on the day. Technical indicators suggest more room for the downside in the short term. However, the fundamental picture still supports higher prices amid weather conditions.

To the downside, the oilseed will face supports at the 8.810 area, the 200-day moving average level at 8.740 and the June 10 low of 8.410. To the upside, 9.150 is the resistance to watch.

Grains report for June 27, 2019

Corn is extending losses for the second day in a row as investors are closing positions ahead of the end of the quarter. The grain remains inside the range between 4.340 and 4.500 that it has been trading since June 18. Currently, corn is moving at 4.380, 0.60% down on the day.

Wheat jumped to 10-month highs on Thursday at 5.510; however, the unit found an active selling zone where investors started closing positions, taking wheat to 5.355 per bushel.

Currently, wheat is trading at 5.370, 0.70% down on the day. Technical conditions talk about a short term decline, but the chart pattern shows a strong uptrend on the play. Be careful of end-quarter rebalancing.

Sugar is rallying on Thursday as investors are digesting news from India that monsoon is covering most parts of the country.

Also, a technical rebound from the 0.1205 level is fueling the move that got extra traction after it broke the 0.1240 area. Currently, sugar is trading at 12.50, 3.85% positive on the day.

To the upside, sugar needs to close above the 0.1250 area to make the run sustainable. Above there, next resistances are at 0.1270 and 0.1280.

Coffee is extending gains for the third day on Thursday with the grain jumping to test the 2019 highs at 108.20. Currently, it is trading at 106.55, 0.15% positive on the day.

Grains up on Weather and Political Factors, Coffee Jumps to Highs Since Feb

Grains such as soybeans and corn are trading positive on Wednesday as investors are digesting improved weather forecast but concerns about the harvesting season.

Also, climate problems in Canada, Russia, and China are fueling fears of a supply crisis in the months to come. Not only soybeans, corn or Wheat, but the whole grains market.

Soybeans on sideways

Soybeans June 26 Daily chart

Soybeans June 26 Daily chart

Soybean is trading down for the second straight day as investors are digesting improved weather forecast and a technical rejection from the 9.150 level. On Wednesday, soybeans are testing the 8.900 area for the second day in 1 week.

Currently, the oilseed is trading 0.24% negative at 8.950. The unit is now testing the bottom side of the range between the mentioned 8.900 and the 9.150 level it has been trading since June 17.

To the downside, in the case soybean breaks below the 8.900 level, it will find resistance at 8.800, late May highs, the 200-day moving average line at 8.735, and the 50-day MA at 8.530.

Grains investing report for June 26

 Corn is recovering from an early drop on Wednesday, and it is now near to flat around 4.430. The grain is digesting reports on improved weather but still concerns about the emerging season and the final harvest.

On the big chart, prices of corn are now moving in a range between 4.400 and 4.500, consolidating levels after a rejection from multi-year highs at 4.600 reached on June 17. Technical indicators are mixed with moving average aligned to the upside, but momentum and oscillator indicators are signaling more correction.

Wheat, on the other hand, has resumed its uptrend after a brief setback performed on Tuesday. The grain is now trading 1.30% positive on the day at 5.400. It is heading to test yesterday’s high at 5.430, and 11-high at 5.450 reached on June 17.

Technical indicators suggest more room for the upside with moving averages turning positive and RSI and MACD signaling sustainable gains.

Sugar is falling on Wednesday as the unit was unable to extend recovery beyond 0.1240. Previously, sugar stopped a 5-day decline at 0.1210 on Monday, and it started a recovery that was, however, capped at 0.1240. It happened again on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The odds are now pointing to the south with technical indicators mixed but most aligned to the downside.

If the pair finally couldn’t break above the 0.1240, it will extend its rejection to the mentioned 0.1210 area, and below there, sugar will find support at 0.1180 and then 0.1135. The last frontier lies at 0.1120 for now.

Coffee jumps to near 5-month highs

Coffee is rallying for the second straight day on Wednesday as the grain broke above the 106.40 area to trade as high as 108.00, its highest level since February 7.

In the last two days, futures of coffee has advanced over 6.5% from the 100.00 area to the current 106.40 area, where the pair is fighting to maintain gains above previous highs.

Technical indicators are pointing for more gains in the short and middle term. To the upside, if coffee maintains levels above 106.40, it will extend benefits to breaking above the 108.00 area. Then, the psychologic 110.00 area and the 111.10 level will be the frontier.

Grains Advances Amid USDA Weak Crop Report, But Key Levels Contain Gains

Grains such as soybeans, corn, and wheat are posting gains on Tuesday. Investors are digesting a USDA crop progress report that came short of expectations. However, the units have found strong resistance and increases are limited.

According to the National crop progress report released by the United States Department of Agriculture on Monday, US crop conditions deteriorated last week following rain.

The USDA is expecting a weaker than previously expected harvesting. It can be worse if the emerging grains don’t go as planned due to hot conditions in summer. The situation is supporting higher grains prices.

In a report with Reuters, Matt Ammermann, commodity risk manager with INTL FCStone, said that “corn, wheat, and soybeans are being supported today by the disappointing crop condition and sowings figures from the USDA.”

Besides, “wheat is also underpinned by concern about the heatwave in parts of Europe,” Ammermann said.

Remember that Europe is facing a hot wave that will last until the next week.

Grains report for June 25, 2019

Soybeans Daily chart June 25
Soybeans Daily chart June 25

Soybeans are trading down on Tuesday as the oilseed was unable to break above the 9.150 level and it retraced to move just above the 9.000 area.

Previously on the day, Soybeans rose to test the 9.150 area amid a disappointing USDA crop progress report. Although the unit was unable to extend gains beyond that level.

Currently, the bushel of soybeans is moving at 9.042, 0.07% negative on the day.

Corn is extending gains for the second day with the unit testing the 4.500 level. The grain is advancing amid a weak crop progress report released on Monday. However, the movement is not too big as the unit remains contained by the mentioned 4.500.

Currently, corn is trading 0.47% positive on the day at 4.460. The unit has been trading in a range between 4.330 and 4.500.

Technical studies are mixing greens and red signals. However, the chart pattern suggests a bullish continuation at least until 4.600.

Wheat is down on Tuesday after the unit attempted a jump to test the 5.445 level, but it failed and it was sent to trade just above the 5.300 area.

Sugar is extending is recovery from 0.1210 traded on Monday to test the 0.1240 level on Tuesday. Currently, it is trading 0.82% positive on the day at 0.1230. Sugar is on recovery mode this week as it lost 4.2% of its value the last period.

Futures of coffee accelerated on Tuesday after a setback performed on Monday as the 200-day moving average rejected the unit at 102.20. On Tuesday, coffee jumped 3.5% on the day to break above the mentioned 200-day MA and to trade as high as 103.75, the highest level since June 5.

Is Soybean Ready for Significant Gains? Coffee Gives Signals of Life

Agricultural futures started the week mixed as most grains are trading in consolidation patterns. However, Soybeans looks it is building a bullish run in the short term due to technical and fundamental factors.

CoT: Soybeans long interest increases

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Soybeans are trading positive on Monday, but the bushel remains moving sideways inside a range between 8.960 and 9.100 areas. Technical conditions are deteriorating and fundamental factors are signaling for more gains in the short and middle term.

The latest US Commodity Futures Trading Commission CoT report showed that net short positions declined by 39% in the week of June 18 to 55,307 contracts. So investors are becoming more and more bullish on the oilseed.

On the fundamental area, any improvement in the trade war following the Trump-Xi meeting that will start this week will push soy prices higher.

To the upside, the pair is contained by the previously mentioned 9.100 area. Immediate resistance at 9.155, June 18 highs. If the oilseed breaks above that level, it will find selling zones at the double top at 9.200 performed on December 12, 2018, and February 1, 2019.

To the downside, if the bushel breaks below the 8.960, it will find support at 9.800 and then the 8.730-60 congested area.

Corn consolidates levels at 4.400

Prices of corn are moving sideways on Monday as investors are waiting for the new crop report of the US Agriculture Department to be released early this week.

Corn is currently trading 0.50% positive on the day with the unit moving around 4.415. The grain remains in a range between 4.300 and 4.500 as it is consolidating levels above the critical support at 4.360.

Wheat up to test 5.300 area

After a brief period of consolidation performed on Friday, wheat opened the week with gains as investors used 5.200 as a new leg for another bullish run.

On Monday, wheat broke the 5.260 resistance to extends gains and tested the 5.300 area. It is now trading at highs since June 18.

Sugar finally strikes back

Futures of sugar is trading positive for the first time in the last six sessions as the unit finally found support at the 50-day moving average level at 0.1210.

Last week, sugar fell around 4.20% in its first negative week in fourth periods. Investors were worried about the speculations of less-than-expected Thai sugar sales.

However, the unit started the current week with a fresh market sentiment that is leading the price up over 1.0% on the day to test the resistance at 0.1240. The unit is now trading back at 0.1230, but if it can break above that level, it will find resistances at 0.1250 and 0.1270.

But experts don’t have much confidence about sugar recovery as technical studies are weak. The chart pattern is suggesting more losses at least to the 0.1200 area.

Coffee rejects the 200-day MA at 102.20

After two positive sessions, Coffee futures are trading down 1.50% on Monday as the unit wasn’t able to sustain gains above the 200-day moving average at 102.20.

Coffee is now trading down at 100.20 and technical conditions are signaling more declines in the short term. If the unit extends its decline, it will find support at the 98.00 area and the 96.00 level.

Soybean Down Friday but Positive on Week; Russia’s Wheat Export Estimates Down

Soybean, corn, and wheat are trading positive on Friday as investors digested weather reports and concerns about a supply crisis in the months to come. Also, Russian analysts are now cutting its 2019 Russian exports estimates.

While in the United States rains don’t stop, it looks like the storms are not arriving in Russia. IKAR and SovEcon, Russian agriculture consultants, has downgraded forecast for Russia’s wheat exports for 2019 and 2020 amid dry weather.

“The market continues to watch the Black Sea weather closely where hot and dry weather continues to threaten the new crop,” SovEcon said.

Ikar cut its forecast of wheat exports by 5000K tonnes to 36.5 million. Grains exports were also reduced by 1.4 million tonnes to 46 million.

SovEcon cut Russian wheat exports estimates by 6000K tonnes to 37.6 million tonnes in 2019 and 2020. Expectations for grains exports were reduced to 5000K tonnes to 48.9 million tonnes.

Grains report for Friday, June 21, 2019

Soybeans daily chart June 21
Soybeans daily chart June 21

Soybean prices are trading down on Friday as the bushel wasn’t able to extend gains above the 9.100 area. Now, the unit is moving at 9.055, 0.50% negative on the day.

On the week, soybean is closing its second week with gains as the unit extended gains above the 8.800 area and it is closing above the 9.000 key level. A mix of planting delays and geopolitical factors are pushing the grain back to 2019 highs and December-March range.

Corn is trading positive for the second day as investors are digesting more wet weather but also cold temperatures in the corn belt of the United States. The unit is trading 0.40% positive on Friday, adding gains after the 2.20% performed Thursday.

A volatile week for corn as the unit has moved as high as 4.590, but also as low as 4.320 before closing the week with virtually no gains and no losses. Corn is now 0.15% positive on the week, but the unit is fighting to decide what side it is going to take before the closing bell.

Wheat prices are extending its recovery from 5.100 as it is trading positive for the second day in a row. Wheat is now trading at 5.250, consolidating gains above the 5.200 area.

However, in the weekly chart, the story is different as wheat is ready to close the week with losses after the sharply gain performed in the previous period. In the last six weeks, this would be the second negative period.

Coffee and Sugar

Coffee is ready to close its first positive week after two negative periods as the unit found support at 96.25 on Wednesday and it logged two positive days until today’s 3.4% daily gain to recover the 100.00 level and test the 200-day moving average at 102.20.

Currently, Coffee futures are trading at 101.75 with technical studies suggesting more recoveries next week. However, the reading should be taken with a grain of salt as today is Friday, and some profit taking could be undergoing.

Sugar is trading negative for the fifth day in a row amid reports that the sugar production rose over 3% year to year in May and June.

In the last five days, sugar has fallen 2.5% from 0.1270 to trade at current levels of 0.1235. It would be its first negative week in the previous five.

Soybeans on Recovery Mode, Coffee Performs its First Positive Day in June

Agricultural commodities got reactivated on Thursday after the breath investors took on Wednesday just ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting.

So, the Fed talked and it changed its stance to a dovish forecast for the economy and paved the way for a rate cut on its next FOMC in July. As reported earlier in the day, the FedWatch tool is giving 100% of probabilities for a rate cut in July.

In this framework, Dollar is trading down with grains as soybeans, corn, and wheat performing gains. Even coffee is alive today as the grain is logging its first positive day in June.

Now the focus is changing from planting to emerging. Concerns remain about cold and wet weather that can cause even more damage in an already weak agricultural season.

Agricultural report for June 20, 2019

Coffee chart day to day June 20
Coffee chart day to day June 20

Coffee is trading positive for the first time in June as the last day with gains was May 30 with a 0.80% daily gain.

On Thursday, coffee is extending a rebound from 210.00 in what it looks like profit-taking after a long bear run. The unit is now trading at 219.00, 2.65% positive in the day.

Soybeans recovered steam, and it is trading above the 9.000 area again. The unit is trading 1.60% positive on the day at 9.115. It is ready to test the 9.156, near 4-month high reached yesterday.

Corn is recovering ground on Thursday after two negatives days, and after finding support at the 4.3320 area, it is back above 4.400. Currently, it is trading at 4.440, 1.75% positive on the day.

Wheat is also performing a recovery Thursday after three negative sessions. The unit found support t the 5.100 area, and it bounced back to trade at 5.240, posting 1.20% gains so far in the day.

On the other hand, sugar is extending losses for the fourth straight day as the pair is now trading at 0.1235, 0.30% negative on the day. In the last four sessions, sugar has lost 2.5% of its value from 0.1270 to current 0.1235.

Soybean and Corn Lose Steam And Ease Rallies

Soybean and corn prices are trading on consolidation mode this week after several days of gains amid wet weather and concerns about planting and emerging crops season.

The market is trading quietly as investors are more focused on the FOMC meeting and a possibility that the Federal Reserve can hint a rate cut in July.

As reported earlier in the day by FX Empire, the Fed would drop the “patient” world from its statement in an apparent reference for a cut in July.

With all eyes on FOMC today, investors are in wait-and-see mode and avoiding any risk before the event.

25% of US Soybeans crop remains unplanted

The last US Department of Agriculture’s Crop Progress Report released this week showed that nearly 75% of soybean is planted in the United States, 20% slower than the 5-year average.

Corn planting was reported to be 92% completed, below the 100% 5-year average. Corn emerging is nearly 20%, also slower than the average in the last five years.

As the focus is changing from planting to emerging, investors are in profit taking before new news.

According to Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities analyst, “grains are mixed today with corn leading the way lower in a risk off trade profit-taking Tuesday.”

“Also, poor exports and an unchanged crop condition rating on corn were enough to limit the current rally. Volatility is still high on uncertainties on acres and conditions of the short crop,” Roose added.

Agriculture commodities report for June 19

Soybeans Daily chart June 19
Soybeans Daily chart June 19

Soybean prices are trading in consolidation mode above the 9.000 area after logging five positive sessions in a row until it reached highs since February 1 at 9.156. On Wednesday, the bushel of soybeans is moving between 9.000 and 9.080.

Corn is falling for the second session in a row as the unit is extending its rejection from five months highs at 4.590 reached Monday. Currently, the unit is defending the 4.400 support. Technical conditions remain favorable and suggest a new visit to the 4.600 in the next days.

Wheat is logging its third negative day. The unit falling below the 5.200 support. It is currently trading at 5.185. Wheat is losing 3.0% in the week, following a rejection from 5.450, its highs level since August 20, 2018, reached last Monday.

Coffee futures broke below the 98.00 critical level earlier on Wednesday, but the unit found support at 97.05. It, then, recovered some ground to current levels around 98.00. The 200-day moving average contains coffee in the long term.

Sugar extended losses for the third day, and it is testing the 0.1240 level on Wednesday. Technical indicators are mixed with the unit fighting to hold above the mentioned level. 98.00 is critical support as a break below there could spur more loses at least to the 0.1210 area.

Corn and Soybeans Recover Ground and Resume the Uptrend

Soybeans and corn are trading in recovery mode on Tuesday after getting rejections at highs. Now both grains are trading positive on the day, and they seem ready to reach further highs, especially after the latest national crop report in the United States.

Monday crop update showed that corn in the United States is at 92% planted and soybeans being 77%. Progress, but not at all as farmers are worried about the health of the harvest in the next months.

The market is now focused on emerging process and Tuesday’s National crop and weather report that will be released later on the day.

The concerns are again about wet weather that can expose emerging grains to damage or even the coming summer with grains not ready to suffer hot temperatures.

Agriculture commodities report for June 18

Soybeans trade above 9.000 for the first time since March as the grains advances for the fifth day in a row. The unit is now testing the 9.200 area after rising 0.70% on the day.

Corn recovers ground after getting a rejection at 4.600 on Monday, and it found support at 4.380. It is now trading above 4.500 per bushel with technical studies signaling more gains in the short and middle term.

Wheat, on the other hand, is extending losses from 5.450, Monday’s peak, and it is now testing the 5.200 level.

Sugar is retracing for the second day in a row as the pair was unable to break above the 0.1270 area. It is now testing 0.1250 and heading toward 0.1240, previous strong resistance that now would act as support.

Coffee broke below the 90.00 level as it extended losses for the third day until it found support at the 97.00. However, it is now fighting to recover some ground with the unit recovering 0.36% on the day at 98.00.

Soybeans ready to break above the 9.200 key level

Soybeans prices daily chart June 18
Soybeans prices daily chart June 18

Prices of soybeans are advancing for the fifth day in a row as investors are digesting crop and emerging reports and the end of the planting season.

Soybeans are now trading in the sense of consolidation after jumping to 9.160, its highest level since February 25, and then moving back to the 9.000 area. It is now trading 0.30% positive in the day at 9.100.

Experts are forecasting higher prices in the middle term amid concerns about the health of the harvest and problems with global soybeans supply.

Technical conditions for the unit are favorable as it is suggesting more room for the upside. Above the 9.200 area, investors will find resistances at 9.350 and 9.600.

Corn Extends Gains but Shows Signs of Exhaustion, Soybeans Advances

Corn and soybeans reach fresh highs on Monday as investors are worried about plating conditions and its impact in grains season.

Reports from Reuters and CNBC are saying that farmers are depressed and ready to give up on planting. They are assuming they will not be able to plant seeds during the regular planing windows.

“The market does not believe that farmers can complete planting before the window closes,” Phin Ziebell, agribusiness economist at National Australia Bank, said to Reuters. “The weather will now have a material impact on supplies.”

So, the whole harvest is jeopardized and putting grains prices at highs. However, too fast and far jumps are also feeding short traders that saw today’s move in the corn as a selling opportunity.

Grains report June 17

Soybean prices jumped to fresh highs since March 4 on Monday as the bushel was priced at 9.080 earlier in the day. It is currently consolidating levels above 9.000.

Corn rallied to new highs in five years to 4.70 earlier in the day; however, the unit was rejected at that level, and investors started to sell futures contracts. It is now at 4.58.

The same story with Wheat, the grain advanced to fresh highs since August 23, 2018, as it traded as high as 5.53 early in the morning, but the bushel lost ground and it is now trading at 5.44.

Sugar is performing its first negative day in the last five trading sessions as the unit reached highs since April 25 at 0.1270 and it is consolidating levels above 0.1260.

Coffee is extending its rejection from the 200-day moving average at 102.25 as the unit opened the week with losses and it is now testing its 20-day moving average at 90.00. That level is also low since May 29 already tested three times in the last week.

Corn up to 4.70, but down to 4.55

Corn prices are trading on correction mode as the bushel jumped to trade as high as 4.68, highs since June 2014.

Then, short traders saw a selling opportunity in the gap performed on Monday, and they sold futures of corn, sending the unit to trade back at 4.58. However, it remains above Friday’s highs of 4.57.

If the bushel price holds above the 4.57, prices will use that level as a new leg for the next rally, perhaps to 4.70 again and 4.74.

Later on the day, the United States Department of Agriculture will release its report of national crop progress. The market is not expecting good news, but you never know. Until that moment, prices will be moving mostly sideways.

Corn Rallies to Highs Since 2014 and is ready to Close Its Best Week Since June 2015

Corn futures are rallying even more on Friday as investors are digesting news about planting delays and a possible supply crisis in China. Investors are buying corn bushels at high rates.

Global farmers and analysts are concerned about the upcoming harvesting season. Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural strategy at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, affirmed that “with so much late planting this season, the tail on weather threats to this US corn crop will run well into the northern (hemisphere) autumn.”

Also, as reported previously in FX Empire, the United States Department of Agriculture cut by around 9% its forecast of US corn season.

Corn is raising in this perfect storm as well as other grains also impacted by weather and trade war woes.

Agricultural futures report for June 14, 2019

Soybean is trading positive for the third day as the unit is extending highs since April 16 at 8.896 on Friday. The unit is ready to close the week with substantial gains that are recovering previous week’s losses.

After breaking above the 4.38 resistance on Thursday, corn is extending gains well above that level as the price per bushel is trading as high as 4.51, its highest level since June 2014. In the week, corn is closing one of the most significant weekly gains in years with a 9.1% increase.

Wheat is extending gains on Friday after its futures broke above the 5.30 area on Thursday. The bushel of wheat jumped to reach a fresh high since September 4, 2018, as the unit is testing the critical 5.40 area.

On the week, wheat is closing its fourth positive week in the last five as it is completing a recovery from the 4.20 area started in the second week of May.

Coffee got a rejection at the 200-day moving average at 102.30 that stopped its recovery from 99.40. Now, the grain is trading down 1.43% in the day at 99.94. On the weekly chart, futures of coffee are posting its second week of declines.

Sugar is extending its gains for the fourth day after breaking the 0.1240 crucial level. It is now testing the 0.1270 area, highs since April 25, 2019. On the week, Sugar is about to close its fourth positive week in a row.

In the last four weeks, sugar has gained 13.5% of value from 0.1115 per unit to current highs at 0.1270.

Corn perfect storm pushes prices to highs since 2014

Corn daily chart June 14
Corn daily chart June 14

Futures of corn are trading at highs since June 2014 as investors are worried about an ugly corn season in the United States, plus a supply problem in China, that decided to cut its corn sales because its stockpiles were at minimums.

In this framework, corn is trading 2.65% positive on the day at 4.53, multi-year high as mentioned before.

On the week, corn futures are closing its weekly gain since June 2015 as the unit is performing 9.10% positive in the last five days.

Most important is that corn broke a multi-year double top resistance at 4.45. It is now facing a new resistance at 4.55, but it looks minor after what the grain accomplished this week. 5.00 is the frontier now.

Corn Jumps to highs since July 2015 amid Weather and China

Agricultural futures are trading higher on Thursday as investors are digesting crop reports and weather forecasts for the next days. Also, China has announced it will stop selling corn.

Corn is trading at highs in near 4 years, while Wheat is at maximums since August 2018. A mix of the trade war, bad weather, and concerns about the supply of grains are pushing them up.

Agricultural futures report for June 13

Corn is trading for the fourth consecutive day on Thursday with the bushel breaking above the 4.37 level before trading as high as 4.45, its highest levels since July 2015.

Soybeans are also extending gains following Wednesday break above the 200-day moving average at 8.702. It is currently testing the 8.800 area.

Wheat is advancing for the fourth day in a row with the unit jumping to fresh highs since August 2018 at 5.300 on Thursday. Wheat is currently in consolidation mode, but technical studies suggest more gains in the short term.

Coffee is alive on Thursday, and after three days of declines, it is recovering ground above the 100.00 area. Coffee futures are currently trading at 101.40.

Sugar continues with its rally after breaking the 0.1240 level on Tuesday. After three days of gains, sugar is currently trading at 0.1265, its highest level since April 25.

More wet weather expected

Although the latest USDA National Crop report informed that planting was making progress in the midwest of the United States, investors are concerned about the future of the season as more rains are expected for the next days.

As Global Agriculture Columnist at Thomson Reuters, Karen Braun, tweeted recently about the 7-day precipitation forecast, “still has the heavy rain for the Eastern Belt, which has already had a very difficult time planting corn and soybeans. This could unfortunately end a lot of those efforts.”

China to reduce corn sales

Besides, Bloomberg reported this morning that China was considering slashing corn sales as its stockpiles were falling hard to levels not seen in 7 years.

The measure comes in the middle of a trade war between China and the United States, and it raises concerns about how much time can the Asian giant face the conflict.

Same story in the United States, where farmers see how their planting season is well delayed by wet weather. A global grains supply crisis is on the table, making prices go higher.

Corn futures jump to highs since 2015

Corn daily chart June 13
Corn daily chart June 13

In another session of gains, corn broke the 4.38 level to trade as high as 4.45 per bushel, its highest level since July 2015.

The unit is trading positive for the fourth day in a row as investors are digesting reports on more wet weather and news that China will slash corn sales.

Currently, corn is trading at 4.39 per bushel, 2.09% positive so far on Tuesday. On the week, corn is performing a 5.65% rally. Above the 4.45, next resistances are at 4.55 and 4.75.

Corn, Wheat and Soybeans Rally on Lower Grains Forecasts

Grains prices such as soybeans, corn, and wheat are rallying on Wednesday as investors are digesting the recent USDA national crop report, including a cut in 2019 season forecast on midwest flooding.

The US Department of Agriculture reported that despite some improvement in the planting season, severe weather has put planting progress at its slowest pace on record. The USDA is now expecting domestic corn yields to be the lowest since 2013.

USDA is now expecting 13.68 billion bushels of corn, 9% below previous projection. Experts expect more cuts in the weeks to come.

Grains report for June 12

Soybeans are rallying on Wednesday with the bushel breaking above the 200-day moving average and trading as high as 8.753, its highest level in a week.

Corn is extending gains on Wednesday with the pair testing may-end highs around the 4.300 area. Technical conditions are strong for a continuation. Wheat jumps for the third day in a row to trade at 5.235, the highest level since February 6.

Sugar finally broke above the 0.1240 area on Tuesday with the unit extending gains on Wednesday and trading at 0.1245, its highest level transacted since April 25.

Coffee futures, on the other hand, attempted to trade positive on Wednesday but it got a rejection at the 200-day moving average at 102.35, and it was sent back below the 100.00 area.

Corn ready to test 4.300

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Prices of corn are trading higher for the third day after the USDA cut its forecast production of corn for this season.

The revision of the forecast is supporting the movement to the upside as experts are also expecting more reduction in USDA forecast.

In this framework, corn is adding 1.4% of value on Wednesday as it is pricing at 4.263. In the last three days, the grain has advanced near to 6.5% from June 10 low at 4.030 to today’s highs at 4.285.

If the unit is able to break above the 4.300 resistance, it will find next resistance at 4.355, June 2016 highs.

Wheat also tests highs

Wheat daily chart June 12
Wheat daily chart June 12

Prices of wheat are trading higher on Wednesday for the third day in a row as investors are digesting the USDA crop progress report.

On Wednesday, wheat jumped to reach fresh highs since February 6 at 5.235. Then, the unit tempered its gains and returned to trade at current levels around 5.185, 1.10% gains on the day.

Technical studies suggest more room for the upside with the 5.250 as immediate resistance. Above there, check for 5.400 area and 5.550 as most significant buying zones.

Grains and Agricultural Futures Sideways Ahead of the US National Crop Report

Soybeans, wheat, and corn are trading mostly sideways on Tuesday as investors are waiting for a new release of the weather and crop report in the United States.

Traders are expecting more progress in the planting and a better forecast for the weather in the next week. However, the focus is now turning to the crops emerging and next steps of the season.

Agricultural trading report

Soybeans are trading in a small range between 8.460 and 8.490 with brief adventures to the down and upside. The bushel os trading negative for the fourth time in the last five days and extending losses after Monday’s rebound from 8.410.

Corn is falling again on Tuesday after Monday’s recovery, but overall, the unit is negative and it looks ready to trade below the 4.000 area for the first time Since May 28.

Wheat is trading near to the psychologic 5.000 again. The unit remains to trade in a wide range between 4.800 and 5.200 since May 24. The 200-day moving average supports wheat.

Sugar is testing the 0.1240 area again on Tuesday, but as it happened in the last five trading sessions, the level remains firm. Today sugar was rejected and fell to 0.1220, but it recovered ground to the 0.1240. Will it break it? Time will say, but the production remains weak.

Coffee is trading negative for the second day in a row with the Futures of Coffee breaking below the 100.00 area and testing the 98.00 level, lowest since May 29. Coffee prices are expected to continue falling at least to 96.25, where the 20-day moving average and highs from April and May lies.

Soybeans flat ahead of US crop national report

Soybeans June 11 daily chart
Soybeans June 11 daily chart

Soybean is trading flat on Tuesday after the bushel recovered ground from 8.438, but the 50-day moving average contained the movement. The unit is now trading at 8.509, 0.10% negative on the day.

Recent forecasts about more temperate weather in the midwest of the United States are lifting planting progress expectations, sending soybeans prices lower.

However, the market wants to check how planting is advancing for sure, and today’s report from the US Department of Agriculture will show it.

The forecast is another crucial point in the report as it will show the expectations for rains and storms in the next week.

Now, the market is turning focus into the emerging steps, and it will be late just ahead of an imminent summer and hot temperatures.

In this framework, Soybeans remains trading sideways, but the catalyst is just coming. To the upside, the unit will see resistances at the 200-day moving average at 8.700 and then the 8.800 area.

To the downside, 8.400 is the first support, then, 8.320 and 8.000 are the levels to watch.

Corn and Wheat Recover Ground on Friday While Soybeans Remain Pressured

Agricultural futures are trading on consolidation mode on Friday as investors are digesting fundamental situations and wet conditions in the US and dry weather in Russia and Australia.

Also, corn’s planting delays are raising speculations on a bigger than expected beans season.

Mark Feight, Managing Director at the International Agribusiness Group, said to AgDay show that in terms of prices, “soybeans tend to be the anchor right now keeping the corn from getting higher.”

“We believe, from a planting perspective, if we don’t plant corn, we’re going to have to plant a lot of beans in the market,” says Feight.

According to an AccuWeather prediction, corn planting remains at record low rate and the United States Department of Agriculture will confirm next week with its Crop Progress report.

“A new AccuWeather analysis estimates 82% of corn will be reported as planted in the 18 key US corn-producing states, a historic low for the second week of June since record keeping began in 1980,A new AccuWeather analysis estimates 82% of corn will be reported as planted in the 18 key US corn-producing states, a historic low for the second week of June since record keeping began in 1980,” the note says.

Agricultural round-up

Soybeans are trading negative for the third day as the unit is extending losses below the 8.600 area. Beans are posting its first week with declines in the last four.

Corn consolidates levels above 4.100, but the recovery is unable to put the grain on the green in the weekly chart.

Wheat found support at the 200-day moving average at 4.840 and recovered the 5.000 level on Thursday. So, it is trading in consolidation mode on Friday and closing the week with gains.

Coffee is trading on recovery mode after finding support at 98.00 on Thursday. The grain is now testing the 200-day moving average at 102.30. However, the future is closing the week with losses.

Soybeans on the defensive

Soybeans daily chart prices June 7
Soybeans daily chart prices June 7

Price of soybeans is trading down on Friday as the nit is extending losses and testing the 50-day moving average at 8.525. Technical conditions suggest more room for the downside.

On the week, Soybeans is closing the first week with losses in the last four as the unit is facing 50 and 20 days moving averages levels. However, in the weekly chart, the bushel of soybeans looks positive with the 8.500 supporting the unit.

To the upside, always talking about the weekly chart, beans will face resistance at 8.900 and 9.100.

Soybeans, Corn Down on Planting Report, Coffee Down the Most in 9 years

New crops report showed that the planting season of soybeans, corn, and wheat are delayed, but the damage is not too substantial. So, investors are digesting the news, and the prices are going lower on Thursday.

Coffee price, on the other hand, is falling hard in a mix of technical selling and news that coffee may affect health. Sugar is trading higher on Thursday after the recent correction.

Agricultural round-up

Soybeans are trading negative for the second day in a row to test 8.500 area as investors intensified the sales after the unit got a rejection at the 8.800 area and reports that the crop damage due to delays on planting is not too heavy.

Corn extended loses for the second day in a row and continue with its rejection from the 4.300 area. However, the grain found support at the 4.000 level on Thursday as investors are digesting reports that Mexico will not use corn as a retaliation of US tariffs.

Wheat is trading positive on Thursday after two consecutive negative days. The grain found support at the 200-day moving average level at 4.840.

Sugar recovered its mojo, and after a rejection of the 0.1240 area that sent the unit to test 200-day moving average at 0.1200 on Wednesday, the soft is now back on positive and after recovering all Wednesday’s loses it is currently testing the 0.1240 area again.

Coffee is falling hard on speculations that roasted coffee contains a chemical with potential healthy danger; Also, investors are selling the grain after it was unable to break above 106 and fundamentals remain weak for the price.

In this framework, coffee futures price is falling 6.23% on Thursday as the unit declined from 106.00, its highs since February 8 to trade below the 100.00 mark and test the 98.50 area.

Corn excluded from Mexico retaliation tariffs list

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Prices of Corn fell to 4.000 on Thursday amid reports that say that the delayed planting damage is not too significant and the season will be moderate okay.

Also, the unit is extending falls from the 4.300 level that was reached last week. The pair declined to 4.000 earlier in the day, but it recovered to 4.085 as Reuters reported that Mexico is excluding corn from any tariff retaliation against the United States.

Currently, corn is trading 0.42% positive at 4.085. Technical conditions suggest sideways in the short term but more declines in the middle term. However, if the pair holds the 4.00 level, it may change the outlook.

Coffee falls the most in nine years

Coffee daily chart June 6
Coffee daily chart June 6

Ugly day for coffee investors as futures prices are falling over 6% in the session amid a cocktail of bad news for the value.

In one hand, California is living a polemical story about coffee and a link with cancer as roasted coffee beans contain acrylamide, one of the hundreds of chemicals listed as a carcinogen or reproductive toxin under California’s 1986 act.

However, the state managed to cold down the polemic as it signed a new rule admitting that coffee won’t kill you. Acrylamide is also found in 40% of calories Americans consume.

On the other hand, coffee futures are falling amid technical event and profit taking as reports coming from Brazil said that the coffee season is very healthy so it won’t face any problem or delay in planting, harvesting and roasting.

Coffee prices are currently 6.23% down on the day as the unit was unable to break above the 106.00 area, and investors got nervous and decided to sell it. It broke below the 200-day moving average level at 102.35, a technical event that triggered stop loses and sent the pair deeper below the 100-00 area.

It is now trading at 98.55. Next support is identified at 96.75 and 95.00.

Soybeans’ Recovery Capped, Sugar Down to 7-Month Lows

Soybeans prices are trading down on Friday as investors are digesting trade war events between China and the United States. Also, the sugar surplus is adding pressure to the commodity.

Corn accelerates and reaches near three months highs at 3.742 on Friday. Wheat is extending recovery as it is consolidating gains above 4.600. Sugar breaks below 0.1135 resistance and trades at 7-month lows.

Soybeans resume its decline

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Prices for soybeans are down on Friday as the 20-day moving average has contained the oilseed recovery in the last three days and it is now trading around 8.178.

A cocktail of factors is contributing to the decline. First, the trade war between China and the United States are adding pressure on prices as investors are worried about China stopping soybean purchases from the United States.

As reported previously, the market doesn’t see any solution to the trade conflict any time soon.

Second, the 20-day moving average has been acting as a resistance which has contained the seed recovery. 8.355 on May 15, 8.326 on May 16, and 8.296 today Friday, May 17, always the 20-day moving average capping gains.

So, investors finally gave up on the recovery and let the seed go down.

And third, Friday rebalancing and profit taking is also affecting the unit as investors consider that it is better to have profits in the pocket before the weekend, especially after the two reasons mentioned above: Trade war and the price unable to break above the 20-day moving average.

Currently, Soybean prices are declining by 1.0% as it is trading at 8.192. On the week, however, the unit is posting its first positive week in the last six.

Technically, the commodity looks bearish, but the good news is that it will close the week above the 8.000 area.

Sugar breaks 0.1135 critical support

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The price of sugar is trading considerably lower on Friday as global surplus is pressuring prices to the downside. Also, the trade war is taking investors attention.

Sucrose is trading 2.5% down on the day as it is extending losses for the third day. On Friday, Sugar broke below the 0.1135 critical support before pricing as low as 0.1120, its lowest level since October 4, 2018.

The outlook is for more losses as sugar prices will remain flat until de the end of the next year, according to MM Murugappan, chairman of the Indian based Murugappa Group.

“The sugar market will face a country and worldwide surplus until next year,” Murugappan said, “so the sugar-year after next should see some increase in demand.”

If sugar extends its decline, it will find support at 0.1100 and 0.1070. Below, check for the psychologic level of 0.1000 as a buying zone.

COT: Commodity specs cut longs to 40-month low

Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.

To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Commodity report for the week ending May 7, click here.

The biggest casualties were WTI crude oil, HG copper, soybeans, sugar, cotton and live cattle. Only six out of 24 commodities were bought with gas oil, corn and gold attracting most of the attention.

Note: See page 3 in the attached report for detailed descriptions of the different data points in the below report

Crude oil positioning continued to diverge with accelerated selling of WTI (-29k lots) being partly offset by the continued buying of Brent (+2k). The behaviour of Brent especially raising questions about the strength of the current price weakness.

1) The steepness of the Brent forward curve points to an increasingly tight physical market caused by multiple voluntary and involuntary supply disruptions.

2) During the last two reporting weeks, Brent sank 5.4% while the net-long increased by 10k lots. Last week most of the increase in the net-long was due to short-covering not long liquidation, another sign of limited selling appetite despite lower flat (spot) prices.

 

Gold was bought for a second week but the limited amount of short-covering highlights the yellow metal’s current struggle to gain momentum. All other metals were sold, not least HG copper where the net-short jumped by 173% to 27k lots, a 14-week high.

 

The combined grain short saw a small reduction with planting delays supporting short covering in corn while trade war concerns and demand worries hit soybeans. The week went from bad to worse when the USDA in their monthly WASDE report on Friday forecast bigger-than-expected U.S. supplies of all three major crops (table). Soybeans dropped to lowest since 2008 while July corn hit a contract low.

 

COT on grains:

 

In soft commodities, the sugar net-short almost doubled while cotton returned to a net short following a week where the trade war raised demand concerns and the price sank to an 18-month low.

 

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The Commitments of Traders (COT) report is issued by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) every Friday at 15:30 EST with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. The report breaks down the open interest across major futures markets from bonds, stock index, currencies and commodities. The ICE Futures Europe Exchange issues a similar report, also on Fridays, covering Brent crude oil and gas oil.

In commodities, the open interest is broken into the following categories: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User; Swap Dealers; Managed Money and other.

In financials, the categories are Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Managed Money and other.

Our focus is primarily on the behaviour of Managed Money traders such as commodity trading advisors (CTA), commodity pool operators (CPO), and unregistered funds.

They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged. This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments. It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank.

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This article is provided by Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Pty. Ltd, part of Saxo Bank Group through RSS feeds on FX Empire.