The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – August 1st, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.79% on Saturday. Partially reversing a 5.43% rally from Friday, Bitcoin ended the day at $41,439.0.

A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning intraday high $42,398.0 before hitting reverse.

Falling well short of the first major resistance level at $43,562, Bitcoin fell to a late afternoon intraday low $41,051.0.

While steering clear of the first majors support level at $39,605, Bitcoin fell through the 38.2% FIB of $41,592.

Steering clear of sub-$41,000 levels, Bitcoin briefly broke back through the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 before a late slide back to sub-$41,500 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact, supported by the latest return to $42,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need a sustained fall through the 62% FIB of $27,237 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Saturday.

Bitcoin Cash SV fell by 1.60% to lead the way down, with Litecoin (-0.81%) and Ripple’s XRP (-0.89%) also joining Bitcoin in the red.

It was a bullish day for the rest of the majors, however.

Polkadot and Crypto.com Coin rallied by 8.05% and by 5.10% respectively to lead the way.

Binance Coin (+3.12%), Chainlink (+1.92%), and Ethereum (+2.84%) also found strong support.

Cardano’s ADA (+0.71%) trailed the front runners, however.

In the current the week, the crypto total market fell to a Monday low $1,379bn before rising to a Saturday high $1,646bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $1,605bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance fell to a Monday low 47.07% before rising to a Saturday high 49.18%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 48.29%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.78% to $41,115.0. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning high $41,468.9 before falling to a low $41,105.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Crypto.com Coin was up by 1.02% at the start of the day to buck the trend.

It was a bearish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 0.40% to lead the way down.

BTCUSD 010821 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to move through the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 and the $41,629 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $42,208 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break back through to $42,000 levels.

Barring a broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Saturday’s high $42,398.0 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at $43,500 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $42,976.

Failure to move through the 38.2% FIB and the $41,629 pivot would bring the first major support level at $40,861 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$40,000 levels. The second major support level at $40,282 should limit the downside.

Inflation Climbs Higher, but Gold Closes Sharply Lower

However, it came in under analyst expectations and forecasts, which was one factor that took gold prices lower on the last trading day of July 2021.

The PCE price index rose 0.5% in June taking the one-year inflationary change to 4% according to the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). It took a combination of four concurrent monthly major upticks in inflation to raise inflation to 4% over the past 12 months. The last time the PCE price index was at this level was in 2008.

pce july

The Federal Reserve’s target has been to maintain an inflationary rate of approximately 2%, this year the fed adjusted its mandate to focus on maximum employment and let inflation run hot. But the fact that inflation based on the CPI is at 5.4%, and now the PCE price index which strips out food costs in energy is double the Federal Reserve’s target it must be running hotter than the Fed expected.

During the press conference held by Chairman Powell this week, he acknowledged that inflation has risen much faster this year than he and other senior Federal Reserve members predicted. He also acknowledged that is possible that inflation “could turn out to be higher and more persistent than we expected.”

The Fed continues to maintain that the current inflationary rate is transitory because rising prices are almost entirely the result of the reopening of the U.S. economy. He blames much of the inflationary pressure is due to supply bottlenecks saying, “Supply bottlenecks have been larger than anticipated.” He also added that “Once these bottlenecks abate and the economy returns to normal.”

While some analysts agree with the Federal Reserve’s assumption that inflation is for the large part a transitory scenario, many analysts believe that the current uptick in inflation is not all transitory citing recent dramatic rises in food cost and energy.

Regardless of the statements by Chairman Powell inflation even using their preferred index which strips out food and energy costs, inflationary pressures are at a dramatic and alarming high. More importantly, because the Fed is assuming that inflation will likely slip back to a number closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target next year, if they are wrong, the implications would be alarming.

As of 5:51 PM EST gold futures basis, the most active December 2021 Comex contract is currently down $18.90 and fixed at $1816.90. On a technical basis, we saw a resistance enter the market as gold broke through both its 200-day moving average yesterday, but stalled just below the 50-day moving average. Today gold prices opened just above the 50-day moving average at $$1831.10. Today gold opened at $1832.50. Therefore, the 50-0day moving average is a critical price point that must be breached on a closing basis next week if we are to see the strong price increases witness yesterday marks the continuation of a rally next week.

July Gold July 29

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The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – July 31st, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, rallied by 5.43% on Friday. Following a 0.05% gain on Thursday, Bitcoin ended the day at $42,214.5.

A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to a late morning intraday low $38,343.0 before making a move.

Bitcoin fell through the first major support level at $39,331 before rallying to a final hour intraday high $42,299.2.

Bitcoin broke through the first major resistance level at $40,682 and the second major resistance level at $41,328.

More significantly, Bitcoin also broke through the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 to end the day at $42,000 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact, supported by the latest return to $42,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need a sustained fall through the 62% FIB of $27,237 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Friday.

Crypto.com Coin and Polkadot fell by 1.22% and by 1.83% respectively to buck the trend on the day.

It was a bullish day for the rest of the majors, however.

Chainlink surged by 15.16% to lead the way. Bitcoin Cash SV (+3.99%), Ethereum (+3.37%), and Litecoin (+2.86%) also found strong support.

Binance Coin (+1.73%), Cardano’s ADA (+1.99%), and Ripple’s XRP (+0.38%) trailed the front runners, however.

In the current the week, the crypto total market fell to a Monday low $1,379bn before rising to a Friday high $1,640bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $1,610bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance fell to a Monday low 47.07% before jumping to a Wednesday high 49.16%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 49.02%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.47% to $42,017.0. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning high $42,398.0 before falling to a low $41,677.5.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Bitcoin Cash SV was down by 0.99% to buck the early trend and join Bitcoin in the red.

It was a bullish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Crypto.com Coin was up by 4.85% to lead the way.

BTCUSD 310721 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall through the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 and the $40,952 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $43,562 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break out from $42,500 levels.

Barring a broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at $45,000 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $44,908.

A fall through the 38.2% FIB and the $40,952 pivot would bring the first major support level at $39,605 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$38,000 levels. The second major support level sits at $36,966.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – July 31st, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum rose by 3.37% on Friday. Following a 3.59% gain on Thursday, Ethereum ended the day at $2,463.90.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum fall to a late morning intraday low $2,317.51 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $2,301, Ethereum rallied to a late intraday high $2,472.18.

Ethereum broke through the first major resistance level at $2,433 to end the day at $2,470 levels.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by 0.63% to $2,448.28. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning high $2,468.76 before falling to a low $2,443.35.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 310721 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid the $2,418 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $2,518 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break out from Friday’s high $2,472.18.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another broad-based crypto rally, Ethereum could resistance at $2,650 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $2,573.

A fall through the $2,418 pivot would bring the first major support level at $2,364 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should continue to steer clear of sub-$2,200 levels. The second major support level at $2,263 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2,364

Pivot Level: $2,418

First Major Resistance Level: $2,518

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $3,369

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $2,740

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1,725

Litecoin

Litecoin rose by 2.86% on Friday. Following a 0.74% gain on Thursday, Litecoin ended the day at $145.62.

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin fall to a late morning intraday low $135.92 before making a move.

Litecoin fell through the first major support level at $138 before rallying to a final our intraday high $145.93.

Litecoin broke through the first major resistance level at $144 to end the day at $145 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down by 0.68% to $144.63. A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $145.84 before falling to a low $144.50.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 310721 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to avoid the $143 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $149 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break out from Friday’s high $145.93.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $150 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended breakout, Litecoin could test resistance at $155. The second major resistance level sits at $153.

A fall through the $143 pivot would bring the first major support level at $139 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Litecoin should continue to steer clear of sub-$135 levels. The second major support level sits at $133.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $139

Pivot Level: $143

First Major Resistance Level: $149

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $178

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $223

62% FIB Retracement Level: $296

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP rose by 0.38% on Friday. Following a 2.39% gain on Thursday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $0.75282.

After a mixed start to the day, Ripple’s XRP fell to a late morning intraday low $0.71252 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.7102, Ripple’s XRP rallied to a late intraday high $0.76948.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.7778, Ripple’s XRP eased back to end the day at sub-$0.76 levels.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 0.62% to $0.74818. A bearish start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP fall from an early morning high $0.75311 to a low $0.74818.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 310721 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to avoid the $0.7449 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.7774 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break out from Friday’s high $0.76948.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another breakout, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at $0.80 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.8019.

A fall through the $0.7449 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.7204 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.70 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.6880.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.7204

Pivot Level: $0.7449

First Major resistance Level: $0.7774

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.8533

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1.0659

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1.4096

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

S&P 500 Weekly Price Forecast – S&P 500 Continuing Upward Trajectory

S&P 500 traders have been bullish for quite some time, and even though this week has been a bit quiet, it should be noted that we did pierce the 4400 level, which of course is a relatively bullish sign. The same standard playbook applies to this market, simply that we should be buying dips as the Federal Reserve will continue to keep monetary policy very loose for the foreseeable future, the same thing they have been doing over the last 13 years since the Great Financial Crisis.

S&P 500 Video 02.08.21

There is a nice uptrend line underneath, and of course the 4200 level should offer support. After that, I see the 4000 level as the “floor the market” as there will be a lot of options barriers there, and of course is large, round, psychologically important figures tend to attract a lot of attention. Furthermore, we also have the 50 week EMA racing towards that area and of memory serves me correct, the 200 day EMA is currently sitting right around the same area as well.

To the upside, I think the 4500 level will offer a little bit of hesitation, as it is a big figure, but ultimately this pair does tend to move in 200 point increments, thereby having me target the 4600 level over the next several weeks. Keep in mind that August does tend to be very quiet so do not be surprised at all to see this more of a grind than anything else or even the possibility of a bit of sideways trading. Once September hits, traders come back to work and the momentum start picking up yet again.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Crude Oil Weekly Price Forecast – Crude Oil Continus to See Upward Pressure

WTI Crude Oil

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has initially pulled back during the week but found the $70 level to be supportive enough to turn things around and show signs of life again. By the end of the week, we have turned around completely to threaten the $74 level. After forming that massive hammer during last week, it is obvious that the buyers are stepping into pick this market up and as selling is all but impossible. (In fact, I would not be a seller until we break down through that hammer.) Because of this, I think it is only a matter of time before we break above the recent highs and go looking towards the $80 level as demand will continue to outstrip supply in the foreseeable future.

WTI Oil Video 02.08.21

Brent

Brent markets of course are going to be the same story and are much clearer to breaking out to the upside than the WTI grade is. In fact, I look at Brent as a bit of a leading indicator as it typically has a little bit of a premium attached to it anyway. If we can break out higher from a couple of weeks ago, as almost a certainty that we will go looking towards the $80 level and try to break above it. As for the downside, the $70 level looks to be massive support, followed by the $65 level as evident by the massive hammer that we had formed during the previous week. Nonetheless, pay close attention to the US dollar as it also has its say as to where we go quite often.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Grind Sideways Looking for Next Push Higher

The S&P 500 has pulled back a little bit to kick off the trading session on Friday but turned around to show signs of life again. Because of this, the market looks as if it is ready to go much higher given enough time. I think there is plenty of support underneath at the uptrend line, which of course is followed right along by the 50 day EMA. With this being the case, it is difficult to imagine area where I would be short at, because quite frankly between here and there I anticipate there will be plenty of value hunters.

S&P 500 Video 02.08.21

If we did break down, the 4200 level and of course the 4000 level both offer enticing areas to pick up value, especially the 4000 level as it would be a 10% correction. It should be noted that the 4400 level has caused a bit of noise, but if we can break above there then the 4500 level is my next target but ultimately, I would anticipate seeing markets go much higher than that. My year-end target at the moment is 4600, but quite frankly this market continues to outperform expectations I do not see why it would be any different now.

The Federal Reserve has stated this week that it was not going to get close to tapering anytime soon, so that continues to drive the market higher. We are in the midst of earnings season which of course was very strong, but I think that was already expected considering what we had seen over the last year.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Continue to Show Strength Into the Weekend

WTI Crude Oil

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market initially pulled back during the day on Friday only to turn around and show signs of strength. By doing so, the market looks as if it is threatening the $74 level, opening up the possibility of a move towards the $75 level. Pullbacks at this point in time will still have plenty of support underneath, especially near the $70 level as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and an area where the 50 day EMA has just crossed. After the type of recovery that we have seen over the last couple of weeks, it should be obvious that this is still a “buy on the dips” type of market.

Crude Oil Video 02.08.21

Brent

Brent markets also rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday as we have broken above the $75 level in this market. Brent tends to be the leader in these two markets as there is a bit of a premium attached to it, and therefore I think it should not be surprising to see this market break to a fresh new high before the WTI market does. At that point, then I anticipate that the market goes looking towards the $80 level. Underneath, the 50 day EMA sits at the $72.50 level, and should offer a bit of a “soft floor” for the market, and that of course the $70 level will be much more crucial as far as support is concerned. I think this remains a “buy on the dips” type of situation as it has been four months.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Weekly Price Forecast – Silver Markets Form a Hammer

Silver markets have pulled back a bit during the course of the week, but as you can see have turned around to form a bit of a hammer. The hammer sits right on top of the bottom of the overall uptrend line of the ascending triangle, so therefore I think it is only a matter of time before we rally. If the market can break above the top of the weekly candlestick, then it is likely that we break out to the upside, perhaps going towards the $28 level. On the other hand, if we break down below the candlestick, then it is likely that the market could break towards the $24 level, maybe even the $20 level on some type of selloff.

SILVER Video 02.08.21

Keep in mind that silver has a huge correlation to the industrial demand, but with Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve suggesting that they are nowhere near tightening monetary policy, that could weaken the US dollar just enough to make the silver market go higher. Gold has really taken off, and perhaps will continue to drag silver along with it. Nonetheless, this is a market that is very difficult to risk manage, mainly because the cost involved per text.

Because of this, I would be very cautious about the position size, and only add to the position as the trade works out. Either way, it looks like we are probably going to get a significant move relatively soon. That being said, the market is likely to continue to see noisy behavior, but eventually I fully anticipate seeing some type of impulsive candlestick that we can follow right along with.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Natural Gas Weekly Price Forecast – Natural Gas Give Up Early Gains for the Week

Natural gas markets initially rally during the course of the week, breaking out well above the $4.00 level, only to sell off and breakdown. All things being equal, this is a market that I think will continue to see a lot of upward pressure over the longer term, but we are starting to see temperatures cool off a little bit in the United States, so that could drive down demand. Longer-term though, we still have the heat wave coming back and therefore I think buyers will return. This little bit of a pullback might be a nice opportunity to get involved at a better price, and that is how I plan on playing this market.

NATGAS Video 02.08.21

If we can break above the top of the candlestick from the week, then it allows the market to go much higher. At that point, the market is likely to go looking towards the $4.40 level. That is the measured move from the previous consolidation area and the bullish flag that shows up on the daily chart. With that being the case, I think it all the points to higher levels, but this little bit of a pullback should be a nice buying opportunity based upon value as it returns. It is not until we break down below the $3.40 level that I would be a seller of this market and at that point in time I would probably become rather aggressive. In general, this is a market that I believe continues to see upward momentum but given back some of the most recent impulsive move would not be a huge surprise.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Weekly Price Forecast – Gold Continues Same Pattern of Consolidation

Gold markets rallied a bit during the course of the week, but initially looked very soft as we were hanging about the $1790 level, an area that is significant support based upon action that we have seen over the last month or so. We then turned around as Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve announced that they were nowhere near tapering, so therefore gold got a bit of a boost as the US dollar got smoked. Having said that, we did not break out quite yet, and simply test at the top of the range before pulling back on Friday. It will be interesting to see whether or not we can continue to go higher, but we have a very clear area that will be crucial.

Gold Price Predictions Video 02.08.21

If we can clear the $1830 level, then it is likely the gold continues to go much higher, perhaps trying to take that huge red wipeout candle out and go looking towards the $1910 level. On the other hand, if we turn around a break down below the $1790 level, that almost certainly will open up a move down to the $1750 level, followed very closely by the double bottom down at the $1680 level. With that being the case, it is very likely that it would come along with massive US dollar strength and a lot of fear-based trading.

Even though the gold market sometimes get a little bit of a boost when people are concerned, the reality is that the gold markets play second fiddle to the US dollar sometimes, and that will be especially true if we continue to see the yield in the United States drop as people will rush towards bond.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Forecast – Silver Markets Quiet on Friday

Silver markets have gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Friday after initially gapping lower, and now it looks as if we are trying to digest the gains and figure out where to go next. This not a huge surprise, considering just how explosive silver was during the previous session. That being said, the market is likely to be very choppy in the short term, but that is not overly surprising considering that silver tends to be very erratic.

SILVER Video 02.08.21

There is an argument between whether or not we are going to follow the US dollar, as it has such a huge negative correlation, or are we going to follow the industrial demand going forward? Looking at this chart, you can see that there is a lot of noise just above, especially near the $26.50 level. We also have the 50 day EMA sitting in that general vicinity, which of course is an indicator that a lot of technical traders will pay close attention to. If we break above there, then the $27 level will be targeted, followed by the $28 level as it would fill a gap that had formed back in June. At that point, I think there is a significant amount of resistance it could come into the picture in and cause problems.

To the downside, it is very likely that the market could go looking towards the previous uptrend line, assuming that it can even break down below the $25 level. All things been equal, this is a market that is going to be very noisy and choppy, but looking at this chart, it is obvious that we are trying to form a little bit of a base.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Selloff Into the Weekend

Natural gas markets continue to consolidate around the $4.00 level, as we have pulled back from there, but you can see that the market has been in a little bit of a consolidation range between $3.80 and $4.20. At this point, the $4.00 level is essentially the “fair value” of the market right now. I would also point out that just below at the $3.80 level it is the top of the bullish flag, which measures for a move to the $4.40 level.

NATGAS Video 02.08.21

You should also take a look at the massive consolidation area that we broke out of previously with the $2.40 level underneath has offered massive support, and the $3.40 level has been massive resistance. That measures for a $1.00 move from the breakout price of $3.40, so it all kind of comes together at the same time. That being said, it should be noted that the natural gas markets have been seeing a bit of a boost due to the idea of more demand coming out due to the heatwave. As long as that he wave is still around, that is going to drive up pricing over the longer term.

All that being said, it is not a huge surprise to see a little bit of a pullback from the round figure, because after all a lot of technical traders and options barriers tend to gravitate towards these areas. Ultimately, this is a market that I think is going to offer a little bit of value underneath, thereby offering the opportunity of value hunters to get back into the marketplace.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Sluggish to Close Week

Gold markets continued to show signs of exhaustion near the $1830 level on Friday, after surging there during the day on Thursday. At this point, we are going to have to pay close attention to the US dollar, because if it starts to melt down, that might be the catalyst that gold needs to continue to go higher. If we can break out above the top of the candlestick from the Thursday session, then we could go looking towards the $1860 level. That is the top of the gap that we have seen in this market, and it should offer a certain amount of resistance. If we can break above there, then it is obvious that the market could go much higher.

Gold Price Predictions Video 02.08.21

On the other hand, if we were to pull back just a bit, then we could go looking towards the $1810 level, which is where the 200 day EMA currently sits. Underneath there, the market is likely to go looking towards the $1790 level as well, which is the bottom of the overall range. Breaking down below that level then opens up the possibility of a move towards the $1750 level underneath, where we had bounced from earlier this summer.

If we were to turn around a break down below that level, it is very likely that we would go towards the double bottom underneath at the $1680 level. That is an area that is massive support and breaking down below that level opens up a massive flood of selling from what I can see. Keep in mind the negative correlation to the greenback, that is going to be the most important thing to pay attention to.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Test Of Resistance At 1.2480

U.S. Dollar Moves Higher After Hawkish Comments From Fed’s Bullard

USD/CAD is currently trying to settle above the resistance at 1.2480 while the U.S. dollar is gaining ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index has recently managed to get back above the resistance at 92 and is testing the next resistance level which is located at 92.15. In case this test is successful, the U.S. Dollar Index will move towards the resistance level which is located near the 20 EMA at 90.30 which will be bullish for USD/CAD.

Today, U.S. reported that Personal Income increased by 0.1% month-over-month in June while Personal Spending grew by 1%. Both reports exceeded analyst expectations.

Foreign exchange market traders also had a chance to take a look at the final reading of U.S. Consumer Confidence report for July which showed that Consumer Confidence declined from 85.5 in une to 81.2 in July compared to analyst consensus of 80.8.

U.S. dollar received additional support after Fed’s Bullard stated that Fed should begin to reduce its asset purchase program this fall and finish the program at the beginning of 2022. It should be noted that the recent Fed’s commentary remained dovish, and it remains to be seen whether Bullard’s views are shared by the majority of Fed members.

Technical Analysis

usd cad july 30 2021

USD to CAD managed to settle above the resistance at 1.2450 and is testing the next resistance level at 1.2480. In case this test is successful, USD to CAD will move towards the resistance at 1.2500.

A move above the resistance at 1.2500 will open the way to the test of the resistance at the 20 EMA at 1.2520. If USD to CAD gets above this level, it will head towards the next resistance at 1.2550.

On the support side, the nearest support for USD to CAD is located at 1.2450. If USD to CAD gets back below this level, it will move towards the support at the 50 EMA at 1.2435.

A successful test of the support at the 50 EMA will push USD to CAD towards the support at 1.2420. If USD to CAD manages to settle below this level, it will head towards the next support at 1.2385.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/JPY Weekly Price Forecast – Dollar Continues to Chop Back and Forth Against Yen

The US dollar has fallen hard against the Japanese yen during the course of the week to break down below the ¥110 level. Ultimately, this is a market that I think is essentially “stuck” in this general area, and therefore it is not a huge surprise that we are dancing around yet again. At this point, I do not necessarily think that we are going to make a big move in the short term, because we are heading into the month of August when things are typically very quiet. Most large traders will be thinking more about beaches than they will trading charts.

USD/JPY Video 02.08.21

At this point, there is a massive amount of resistance above where the ¥112 level has pushed this market back down every time, we have tried to approach that level over the last several years. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will continue to see a lot of noise in that area so therefore I think we break out. To the downside, I see the ¥108 level as a support level, and a potential target if we break down.

I anticipate that the next several candlesticks will be back and forth, and therefore it is probably more likely than not to be a scenario where we will be looking towards shorter time frames than anything else, as the range is relatively tight, and is going to be difficult to trade the range with these higher time frames. That being said, it does make for a nice well defined area that you can trade on either the daily or the four hour charts.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/USD Weekly Price Forecast – British Pound Continues to Look Strong

The British pound has rallied significantly during the course of the trading session to show signs of life again, as the market is more than likely going to try to move against the US dollar in one fell swoop. That being said, the 1.40 handle is an area that has been significant resistance in the past, so I would not be surprised at all to see a little bit of a pullback. If and when we can break above that 1.40 level though, then it is likely we go looking towards 1.42 handle, which is where we have seen a massive amount of resistance in the past. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will continue to see choppy behavior, and as we head into August, I think we will see a little less in the way of momentum.

GBP/USD Video 02.08.21

When you look at the 1.42 handle, it is an area that has been like a brick wall for several years, and I think breaking above there would make this market a longer-term “buy-and-hold” type of situation. I do not necessarily see that happening easily, and I do not necessarily see that happening in the next week or two. I think this is more or less going to be a bit of a grind higher, especially as we head into what is traditionally one of the quietest times of the year.

That being said, if we pull back it is likely that we will go looking towards the 1.37 handle underneath, where we launched from earlier this week. Ultimately, this is a market that needs to make up its mind for a bigger move.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Why Amazon Stock Is Down By 7% Today

Amazon Stock Dives On Weak Q3 2021 Guidance

Shares of Amazon found themselves under significant pressure after the company released its second-quarter earnings report.

Amazon reported revenue of $113.1 billion, which was lower than analyst estimates. The company’s GAAP earnings of $15.12 per share exceeded analyst expectations but were not sufficient enough to provide support to Amazon shares.

In Q3 2021, Amazon expects to report revenue of $106 billion – $112 billion, which means that Amazon’s revenue will decrease compared to the second quarter. The company’s operating income is projected to be between $2.5 billion and $6 billion compared to $6.2 billion in Q3 2020.

The market was clearly shocked by the company’s quidance for the next quarter, and the stock opened with a big gap down. The stock has made an attempt to gain ground as some speculative traders decided to buy the dip, but it failed to develop upside momentum.

What’s Next For Amazon Stock?

Investors and traders got used to strong reports from Amazon so the soft Q3 2021 guidance dealt a major blow to the stock. Analysts expect that the company will report earnings of $55.86 per share in 2021 and $72.38 per share in 2022, so the stock is trading at roughly 46 forward P/E.

Amazon has always enjoyed rich multiples as investors believed in its growth story, and it remains to be seen whether one report will change the market’s view.

It should be noted that the report highlights potential problems for all leading tech companies as they may face slower growth in case the world succeeds in its battle against the coronavirus pandemic and gets back to normal life.

It’s too early to say that Amazon’s growth story is under question, and the stock will surely attract opportunistic buyers. However, it remains to be seen whether support from such buyers will be sufficient enough to push Amazon shares back to recent highs in the upcoming trading sessions.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/JPY Price Forecast – US Dollar Continues to Consolidate Against Yen

The US dollar has rallied a bit during the course of the trading session on Friday as we continue to see a lot of choppy noise in this market. The ¥110 level has been a bit of a magnet for price and is nothing on this chart that suggests it is not going to continue to be so. The 50 day EMA sits just below the ¥110 level, so it is not a huge surprise to see that the market would go looking towards that area. If we can break above the ¥110 level, then the ¥110.75 level is also resistance, and then we have the ¥111.50 level. Keep in mind that once we get towards the highs again, we need to pay close attention to the longer-term charts, because we have so much in the way of resistance going back several months.

USD/JPY Video 02.08.21

The USD/JPY pair has a strong correlation to risk appetite, and therefore you should pay close attention to that as well. The NASDAQ 100 melted down late in the day on Thursday, and that caused a little bit of pressure over here. Nonetheless, I think given enough time we are simply going to grind back and forth as we try to figure out the next move longer term. Breaking down below the ¥109 level could open up further selling, but you should also keep in mind that the 200 day EMA is just under there as well, so it could also offer a little bit of psychological and structural support.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/JPY Weekly Price Forecast – British Pound Continues to Rally Against Yen

The British pound has initially pulled back a bit during the course of the week but then turned around a break above the ¥153 level. That being the case, it looks as if the market is going to try to continue to grind higher, but keep in mind that this pair is highly sensitive to the risk appetite of markets around the world, so pay close attention to how stock markets behave, as well as other things along the lines of commodities. That being said, the British pound of course is considered to be a currency that people buying good times, while the Japanese yen is considered to be a massive safety currency.

GBP/JPY Video 02.08.21

If we can break above the top of this weekly candlestick, then it is likely we go looking towards the ¥155 level, which was the most recent high. It is also an area where we see a significant amount of resistance at over the months and years pass. On the other hand, if we pull back from here we could go looking towards the ¥150 level, which I think would be massive support and thereby breaking down below the candlestick from the previous week which was the hammer would open up massive selling, perhaps reaching down to the ¥145 level, maybe even as low as the ¥140 level, as I believe that a break down below the hammer from the previous week would of course represent some type of shock to the system and therefore I think the reaction could be rather nasty as it would be a safety trade all across-the-board in my estimation.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.