USD/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for August 15, 2011

As of 07:15 GMT, the Swiss economy will release the only data for the week which is producer and import prices for the month of July. In theU.S., at 12:30 GMT, empire manufacturing for August will be out, where half an hour later, the US will release net TIC flows. The releases are not expected to have significant impact on the pair.

However, the releases from both economies are not expected to have an impact on the pair’s movements which suggest that the pair will get direction from market.

In the previous week, tensions and fears dominated market, enhancing demand on safe havens, yet the intervention from the SNB by using monetary tools and announcement vice president of the SNB managed to push the franc to the downside. Thus, the pair may continue its rebound on expected further interventions by the SNB to halt the franc’s appreciation.

USD/CHF Weekly Fundamental Analysis for August 15 – 19, 2011

In the week ended August 12, the USD/CHF did slight rebound to halt its southern direction as the SNB monetary intervention and announcement pushed the franc lower from record high against the dollar.  Following last week’s interest rate cut by the SNB, the bank in its battle to curb the franc’s advance decided to increase the supply of liquidity in markets, raise sight deposits to 120 billion francs from 80 billion francs and adopt foreign-exchange swap transactions to reinforce liquidity.

In addition, the SNB Vice President Thomas Jordan said that there are talks about pegging the franc giving further bearishness to the franc.

On the other hand, the dollar fluctuated as it benefited from being a safe haven amid the tensions and fears spreading in markets after the downgrade of the U.S. sovereign rating last Friday, yet it was under pressure due to sluggish growth and high debt the U.S. are suffering from.

In addition, the Fed pledge would keep record-low borrowing cost through mid-2013 and to use a wide range of tools to boost recovery that slowed down was considered week compared to other central bank’s interventions seen last week.

With the insistence of the SNB to halt the franc’s rally, the pair may continue its upside rebound in the coming period.

This week, the main focus will be on housing and inflation data from theU.S.while the Swiss economy lacks important fundamentals.

The release of the data will be as follows:

Monday August 15:

As of 07:15 GMT, the Swiss economy will release the only data for the week which is producer and import prices for the month of July. In theU.S., at 12:30 GMT, empire manufacturing for August will be out, where half an hour later, theUSwill release net TIC flows. The releases are not expected to have significant impact on the pair.

Tuesday August 16:

At 12:30 GMT, the market’s attention will be back to housing data with the release housing starts and building permits for July as it will provide evidence about the status of the housing market that triggered the 2008 crisis. Housing starts are predicted to retreat to 608,000 from 629,000 a month earlier, while building permits is set to decline to 606,000 from 624,000. At the same time, with lower relevance, import price index is due. At 13:15 GMT, industrial production and capacity utilization for July will be out.

Wednesday August 17:

MBA mortgage applications for August 12 will be available at 11:00 GMT, while the main focus will also be on inflation data with the release of PPI at 12:30 GMT, where the annual reading excluding food and energy will inch down to 2.3% from 2.4%, according to median forecasts.

Thursday August 18:

Eyes will be on a batch ofUSdata including important inflation data 12:30 GMT which is CPI which is expected to edge down to 3.3% in the year ending July from 3.6%. At the same time theUS, initial jobless claims for the week ending August 12 and continuing claims for the week ended August 6 will be available. Thereafter, particularly at 14:00 GMT, Philadelphia Fed, leading indicators and existing home sales will be out.

Friday August 19:

The week ends with the release no data from both economies, thus the pair is predicted to follow the general sentiment in the market.

USD/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for August 12, 2011

On Thursday, the pair continued its advance as after the SNB Vice President Thomas Jordan said that there are talks about pegging the franc as the bank face mounting difficulties to halt the franc’s appreciation. The announcement along with yesterday and last week’s measures managed to halt the franc’s rally. It seems that the SNB is insisting on curbing the franc’s advance, which is hurting Swiss exporters, yet it is facing a hard mission as investors resort to the franc amid the undergoing tension and fears. Thus, the pair is expected to continue its rebound with the SNB monetary tools used and as the dollar is facing downside pressure due the risks surrounding the U.S. economy which led to the downgrade of U.S. top sovereign rating. On Friday, the week ends with the release of some fundamentals from the U.S. which are retail sales for July, University of Michigan confidence for August and business inventories for June at 12:30 GMT, 13:55 GMT and 14:00 GMT respectively. The released data may have an impact on the pair especially if it showed further deterioration as it will increase fears in markets, particularly after the S&P downgrade to U.S. rating; therefore, the pair may return to the downside direction.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis August 12, 2011

The USD/CHF pair rose on Thursday as a SNB member mentioned the possibility of a peg to the Euro. The truth is this rise if probably going to be short-lived, and traders should be on the lookout for any weakness in this market as a possible selling opportunity. The pair certainly will run into resistance at the 0.80 level, but is facing it in a minor way at the current area of 0.77 and could possibly signal more selling at this point as well. We won’t buy this pair under any circumstances as being patient for selling opportunities has made a lot of money for us over the last several months.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis August 11, 2011

USD/CHF barely moved on Wednesday, even as the rest of the markets around the world fell apart. The pair was unusually quiet, and as such – we feel that a bounce could be coming. This would only be a selling opportunity of course, and the 0.75 level would be a great place to short from, but we will have to wait to see if this comes about. The breaking of the lows would be a selling opportunity as well, and we wouldn’t hesitate to take that signal. The market being this quiet certainly has us becoming more and more patient for the longer-term set up that surely will come soon.

USD/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for August 11, 2011

On Wednesday, the pair rebounded slightly after the Swiss National Bank decided to increase the supply of liquidity in markets, raise sight deposits to 120 billion francs from 80 billion francs and adopt foreign-exchange swap transactions to reinforce liquidity.

The SNB insists on curbing the franc’s advance, which is hurting Swiss exporters, yet it is facing a hard mission as investors resort to the franc amid the undergoing tension and fears.  

It is clear that the SNB is ready to use any methods to halt the franc’s rally which “poses a threat to the development of the economy inSwitzerlandand has further increased the downside risks to price stability,” according to the SNB.

Thus, the pair is expected to continue its rebound with the SNB monetary tools used and as the dollar is facing downside pressure due the risks surrounding theU.S.economy which led to the downgrade ofU.S.top sovereign rating.

The Fed’s pledge to keep interest rate at its record low through mid-2013 and readiness to use a wide range of tools to boost recovery that slowed down could not ease the tensions in markets.    

On Thursday, at 12:30 GMT, the U.S economy will release trade balance report which is expected to show a narrowed deficit of $47.5 billion in June from $50.2 billion deficit a month earlier. At the same time, initial jobless claims for the week ended August 5 and continuing claims for the week ended July 30 will be available.

Further deterioration inU.S.data may increase fears in markets, especially after the S&P downgrade toU.S.rating.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis August 10, 2011

The USD/CHF pair fell hard on Tuesday, as the global markets have been out of control. The pair even went so low as to test 0.7050, and the trend is certainly intact after Tuesday’s action. However, we feel that the pair is oversold, and are looking for a rally to sell into in order to profit from the obvious downtrend. We are especially interested in selling near 0.75 if we get the chance.

USD/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for August 10, 2011

On Tuesday, the dollar fell to record low versus the Swiss franc after as the impact of the S&P cut to U.S. sovereign rating by one step to AA+, losing its top rating for the firs time since 1941, is still having negative effect on the market, sparking demand on refuges, led by the franc which remain the most favorable safe harbor amid the improvement in the Swiss economy. The dollar remained weak before the Fed meeting. The negative sentiment is still giving strong support to the franc which makes the mission of the SNB very difficult to curb the franc’s advance. Last week, the SNB unexpectedly cut interest rate and announced it may adopt any needed measures to stop the franc’s rally. On Wednesday, the US will release MBA mortgage applications for August 5 at 11:00 GMT followed by monthly budget statement at 18:00 GMT, while the Swiss economy lacks fundamentals. The news is not expected to have a significant impact on the market, where worries are expected to continue in the market.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis August 9, 2011

The USD/CHF pair fell on Monday, but managed to bounce a bit towards the end of the session as the Dollar got a little bit of a bid at the 0.75 level. The pair is in a bearish trend, and the truth is that we will not buy this pair, and as a result we wait to see if we can get a bounce in which to sell. A break to new lows gets us selling as well.

USD/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for August 9, 2011

On Monday, the dollar fell to record low versus the Swiss franc after S&P cut toU.S.sovereign rating by one step to AA+, losing its top rating for the firs time since 1941.  Yet, the dollar managed to rebound from its lowest record on expected actions from the SNB to halt the franc’s advance.

Regarding fundamentals fromSwitzerland, unemployment remained at its lowest level in 2 1/2 years in July at 3%, marking the Swiss economy is showing progress which may encourage the SNB to take more monetary measures to stop the franc’s appreciation.

Meanwhile, the SNB is facing a daunting challenge as investors still resort to the franc as a safe haven currency amid the undergoing tensions. However, with the purchase of the ECB to Italian and Spanish bonds on Monday, which pushed their record-high yields down, thereby easing some of the tensions stemming from the escalating debt woes, demand on the franc, which benefited from the escalation of debt crisis, retreated.  

On Tuesday, eyes will  be on the FOMC rate decision , due 18:15 GMT, in case of any surprise from the Fed that may announce a third round of stimulus to reinvigorate growth that started to slowdown after the end of QE2 in June, especially after the monetary interventions seen last week by the SNB, BoJ and ECB. Yet expectation refer to no change on monetary policy as the Fed will probably keep interest rate unchanged and will not announce new stimulus.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis August 8, 2011

The USD/CHF pair had a wild day during the Friday session, but eventually ended up fairly unchanged in the end. The pair is a “sell only” pair as far as we are concerned, and as such are waiting to see one of two things: Either a break of the Friday lows in order to get short or a bounce to 0.80 in order to sell. We will not buy this pair as the trend is far too strong to fight.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis for the Week of August 8, 2011

The USD/CHF pair fell hard this past week, and has decidedly increased the bearish pressure. The pair has fallen past the 0.76 mark, and we like selling it because of the almost one-way nature of this pair. The pair could bounce however, and if it does – we will be here to sell. A bounce to 0.80 would be very welcome for this. A fresh new low could also trigger more selling as well.

USD/CHF Weekly Fundamental Analysis for August 8 – 12, 2011

The USD/CHF continued its original southern journey in the week ended August 5 as worries in markets enhanced demand on the Swiss franc as favorable safe haven, where the Swiss National Bank (SNB) borrowing cost cut could not change the direction to the upside on the weekly charts.

With the S&P warning that theU.S.may still lose its top credit rating, record-high rise in Italian and Spanish bond yields and slowdown in global growth in addition to the improvement in the Swiss economy, the franc remained the most attractive refuge, especially after the intervention of the BoJ in the FX market through selling the yen.

The SNB unexpectedly cut the three-month Libor interbank rate to a range between 0.00-0.25 percent compared with the prior 0.00-0.75 percent range. Also, the SNB said it would increase the supply of francs in the market over the next few days to halt the franc’s rise which is deemed as overvalued according to the SNB which pledged to use further measures if necessary. The impact of the decision did not last long as investors continued to resort to the franc amid the worries prevailing in markets.

Regarding the main highlight of the previous week, the non-farm payrolls report showed improvement as theU.S.economy added 117,000 jobs in July from 46,000 in June while unemployment slipped to 9.1% from 9.2%.

The outlook for the pair is bullish as the monetary measures announced by the SNB are predicted to take its effect in the coming period, especially after the SNB President Philipp Hildebrand announcement that the bank will adopt all “effective measures” to halt the franc’s appreciation.

This week, the spotlight will be on unemployment from the Swiss economy, where the main focus in theU.S.will be the FOMC rate decision.

The Fed is predicted to keep interest rate at its low level between 0.00% and 0.25% in August to boost recovery that started to wane as seen by the most recent data, where there are talks that the U.S. is in a need of a third round stimulus.

For this week, the release of the data will be as follows:

Monday August 8:

As of 05:15 GMT, the Swiss economy will release its only data for the week which is unemployment for July with expectations referring to steadiness in the seasonally adjusted reading at 3.0%. On the other hand, the U.S.has no releases.

Tuesday August 9:

Eyes will be on the FOMC rate decision , due 18:15 GMT, in case of any surprise from the Fed may announce a third round of stimulus to reinvigorate growth that started to slowdown after the end of QE2 in June, especially after the monetary interventions seen last week by the SNB, BoJ and ECB. Yet expectation refer to no change on monetary policy as the Fed will probably keep interest rate unchanged and will not announce new stimulus.

Wednesday August 10:

TheUSwill release MBA mortgage applications for August 5 at 11:00 GMT followed by monthly budget statement at 18:00 GMT.

Thursday August 11:

At 12:30 GMT, the U.S economy will release trade balance which is expected to show a narrowed deficit of $47.5 billion in June from $50.2 billion deficit a month earlier. At the same time, initial jobless claims for the week ended August 5 and continuing claims for the week ended July 30 will be available.

Friday August 12:

The week ends with the release of some fundamentals from theU.S.which are retail sales for July,UniversityofMichiganconfidence for August and business inventories for June at 12:30 GMT, 13:55 GMT and 14:00 GMT respectively.

USD/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for August 8, 2011

As of 05:15 GMT, the Swiss economy will release its only data for the week which is unemployment for July with expectations referring to steadiness in the seasonally adjusted reading at 3.0%. On the other hand, the U.S.has no releases.

Data from Switzerland may not have a significant impact on the pair’s movements unless it comes out with a surprise. In general, the latest data from the Swiss economy is showing progress relative to other major economies which gained the franc additional strength and made it more favorable safe haven.

The outlook for the pair is predicted to be to bullish, especially after the SNB pledge to use all measures to curb the franc’s advance and as the measures adopted the previous week by the SNB are expected to have effect in the coming period, yet the franc may face some difficulties in depreciating as it will still have strong demand from investors seeking refuge.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis for August 5, 2011

The USD/CHF rose, and then fell as the markets around the world were rocked on Thursday. The 0.76 level looks like it is holding the pair up at the moment, so if that area gives way – we think it falls much farther. The trend is certainly down, so a breaking of that level wouldn’t be a surprise to us. The daily close below that level gets us short. Any and all rallies will also be sold.

USD/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for August 5, 2011

On Thursday, the Swiss franc continued its drop against the dollar, where the pair was still affected by the unexpected rate decision and interventions by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The SNB cut the three-month Libor interbank rate; in addition, policy makers said they would increase the supply of francs in the market over the next few days which is expected to have continuing effect on the franc. The SNB pledged to use further measures if necessary, thus further depreciation in the franc is expected to be seen in the coming period, yet some bet that the effect will not last long as the worries in the markets will increase demand on the franc as a refuge.  

On the other hand, the dollar was not much affected by the initial claims data which showed slight improvement as initial jobless claims inched down to 400,000 in the week ended July 30 from the revised prior 401,000.  

On Friday, the week ends with the release of the awaited non-farm payrolls report from theUnited States, due at 12:30 GMT. Expectations refer that change in non farm payrolls will reach 95,000 in July from the previous 18,000 while unemployment will linger at 9.2%. InSwitzerland, CPI for the year ending July will be out with expectations referring to a rise to 0.7% from 0.6%.

The non-farm payrolls report is predicted to have significant impact on the pair as investors are waiting for the data to see whether there is improvement or further deterioration after the drop seen in June. The market is full of tensions as the recent data from the U.S. provided some clues that the world’s largest economy is signaling a slowdown in growth pace, hence an improvement may help the dollar to continue its rebound against the franc while downbeat figures are predicted to push the pair to the downside.

The Swiss data are not expected to have remarkable effect on the pair as inflation is already constant, even if it rose on the back of the SNB’s cut to borrowing it would still move within secure ranges as it is far from the bank’s targeted level.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis August 4, 2011

USD/CHF rose sharply after SNB rate cuts on Wednesday, but only to fall again. The candle shape shows how weak this pair really is, and that the Swiss National Bank has lost all control of its currency. At this point, it looks like nothing will stem the flow of money into Switzerland except taking the Franc off of the exchanges! We still like selling rallies.

USD/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for August 4, 2011

On Wednesday, the Swiss franc lost ground against majors, including the dollar, where the pair rebounded from a record low after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly cut the three-month Libor interbank rate to a range between 0.00-0.25 percent compared with the prior 0.00-0.75 percent range. Also, the SNB said it would increase the supply of francs in the market over the next few days to halt the franc’s rise which is deemed as overvalued according to the SNB which pledged to use further measures if necessary. The dollar, on the other hand, was downwardly affected by Moody’s warns that the U.S. may still lose its AAA top rating. Regarding fundamentals, U.S. ADP report showed that the private sector added 114,000 jobs in July, lower than 157,000 jobs added in June yet better than forecasts of 100,000. On Thursday, at 12:30 GMT, the U.S economy will release initial jobless claims for the week ended July 30 and continuing claims for the week ended July 23, while the Swiss economy lacks fundamentals. The U.S. data is predicted to have an impact on the pair as it comes after the ADP report and before the release of the awaited non-farm payrolls report due on Friday. With the expansionary monetary policy seen by the SNB along with the other possible interventions, the pair is predicted to show some rise, to halt its southern bearish direction.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis August 3, 2011

USD/CHF fell hard on Tuesday as the trading world looked for safe havens. The Swiss Franc seems to be the ultimate safe haven, and as such – the pair fell drastically. In fact, it is currently testing the 0.76 level at the end of the New York session, which of course is an all-time low. If you sell here, you are simply chasing the trade. We prefer to sell bounces.

USD/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for August 3, 2011

On Tuesday, tensions returned once again to markets as the approval of raisingU.S.debt ceiling and budget deficit cut raised concerns theU.S.would lead global economies into sluggish growth, therefore investors resorted to low-yielding currencies, led by the franc which benefited from the improvement in data.  

Swiss retail sales for the year ending June bounced 7.4% compared with the revised 3.9% drop, while PMI manufacturing rose to 53.5 in July from 53.4 in June.

On Wednesday, while the Swiss economy lacks fundamentals, the U.S will release important data. As of 11:00 GMT, MBA mortgage approvals for July 29 will be available. At 12:15 GMT then 14:00 GMT, the U.S economy is to release ADP employment change where it is expected to decrease to 100,000 in July from the previous 157,000, while ISM non- manufacturing will decline to 54.0 in July from 53.3, according median forecasts.

The U.S. data is predicted to be carefully watched as the ADP employment may give an indication to the status of the U.S. labor sector before the release of the awaited non-farm payrolls due on Friday. Also, the ISM non-manufacturing is expected to have an impact on the market after the sharp drop in manufacturing to 50.9 in July from 55.3.

Amid the worries persisting in market and progress in Swiss data, the pair is expected to continue its downside direction.