USD/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for July 29, 2011

The week ends with the release of important data from the U.S. as 2q annualized GDP, due at 12:30 GMT, will show an ease to 1.7% from 1.9% in the first quarter, according to median forecasts.UniversityofMichiganconfidence will be available at 13:55 GMT with projections referring to an incline to 64.0 in July from the prior 63.8.

Despite that all attention is on theU.S.debt ceiling issue, the U.S. GDP data is expected to have an impact on the pair’s movements if it held any surprise, especially if it came lower than expectations as this will add to theU.S.agony.

A slowdown in growth is expected, as second-quarter data showed deterioration, thus in the case of worse than expected the dollar is predicted to face some downside pressure.

Yet, news related to the debt ceiling are expected to have more effect on the pair, where further indecision amongU.S.policy makers is predicted to push the dollar towards more record lows.

On Thursday, data released from the U.S. showed that initial jobless claims slipped to 398,000 on July 23 from 422,000 a week before, while pendi

USD/CHF Technical Analysis July 28, 2011

The USD/CHF pair had a quiet day Wednesday, finishing basically unchanged as the market is currently sitting just above the 0.80 level. The pair is extraordinarily weak, and this chart does nothing to dispute that trend. We know that the 0.80 may be tough to break through, but the truth is that every time we think we find a bottom – this pair goes lower. We expect further weakness.

USD/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for July 28, 2011

While the Swiss economy lacks fundamentals, the U.S. economy will release initial jobless claims for the week ending July 23 and continuing claims for the week ending July 16 will be available at 12:30 GMT. At 14:00 GMT, pending home sales report is expected to show 2.0% drop in June relative to 8.2% rise recorded in May.

Still, the main highlight in the market is on the debt ceiling issue as concerns still persist that U.S. officials will not reach an agreement before the August 2 deadline which will make the world’s largest economy prone to downgrade by rating agencies as well as possible default on debt obligations due to expected climb in yields on treasury bills.

On Tuesday, U.S. President Obama warned that he will use the “veto” if the Congress approved Speaker John Boehner two-step plan to raise the debt ceiling and cut government expenditure by $3 trillion.

On Wednesday trading, investors resorted to safe havens, yet the Swiss franc showed advance over the dollar as U.S. debt limit problem vis-à-vis the stable economic conditions in Switzerland made the Swiss franc more attractive.

Regarding fundamentals, the franc was not much affected by the drop in Swiss leading indicator to 2.04 in July from 2.23 in June.
On the other hand, the green currency was negatively affected after the release of report showing that U.S. durable goods fell 2.1% in June relative to the prior 1.9% advance.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis July 27, 2011

The USD/CHF pair continued its massive move south on Tuesday as traders rushed into the Franc for its safe-haven status. Oddly enough, the world’s stock markets have done reasonably well in the midst of the US debt talks stalling, so it is particularly striking that the Franc is being bought in droves. We see the 0.80 level as a massive support area, and at the time of this writing, the markets are coming to grips with it. We like selling on rallies, and a break of the 0.80 level, with a pullback and confirmation of that level turning into resistance.

USD/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for July 27, 2011

On Wednesday, KoF Swiss leading indicator which is estimated to retreat to 2.10 in July from the preceding 2.29 will be available at 09:30 GMT. Thereafter, eyes will be on MBA mortgage applications for July 22 at 11:00 GMT followed by durable goods orders report for June which is expected to show a 0.3% rise in June from the prior 1.9% advance.

Finally, at 18:00 GMT, Fed’s Beige book will be out. The main highlight in the market remains on the debt ceiling issue as concerns still persist that U.S. officials will not reach an agreement before the August 2 deadline which will make the world’s largest economy prone to downgrade by rating agencies as well as possible default on debt obligations.

On Tuesday trading, the dollar fell against the Swiss franc heading towards a new record low, especially after U.S President Obama warned that the split among policy makers may damage the economy, stating that if the ceiling is not increased before August 2, “deep economic crisis” will face the economy. Regarding fundamentals, the U.S. housing data showed decline in June while consumer confidence rose above expectations in July.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis July 26, 2011

The USD/CHF pair fell down through the 0.81 mark on Monday, as the Franc strengthened against all currencies. The pair has been in a downtrend for a very, very long time, and there is no reason to think it is going to change anytime soon. We like the idea of shorting rallies, and new lows. The pair looks like it will try to bounce back and retest the 0.81 level on the shorter time frames.

USD/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for July 26, 2011

On Tuesday, as of 06:00 GMT, the Swiss economy will release UBS consumption Indicator for the month of June, yet the release is expected to have slight impact on the pair’s movements. In theU.S., the main focus will be housing data starting with S&P/caseShiller, due at 13:00 GMT, followed by new home sales due at 14:00 GMT, where they will provide evidence about the status of the housing market. At 14:00 GMT, consumer confidence is expected to drop to 57.9 in July from 58.5.

However, the main concern in the market will not be on fundamentals as investors are more interested in knowing theU.S.decision regarding the raise of debt ceiling before August 2 to avoid a downgrade by rating agencies as well as possible default status.

On Monday trading, demand on safe havens was predominant afterU.S.policy makers had failed to reach agreement over the debt limit which overshadowed the wave of optimism that prevailed last week after the announcement of a second about forGreece.

The franc was the biggest winner, scoring a new record high against the dollar as theU.S.debt woes and the undergoing stable status in the Swiss economy made the franc more attractive.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis July 25, 2011

The USD/CHF pair rose, then fell on Friday showing that any real attempt to rally this pair should be sold into still. The pair simply cannot get out of its own way, and with the debt ceiling talks stalling in America, one has to think it is just the latest reason to sell this pair. We sell rallies, and new lows. We never buy this pair.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis for the Week of July 25, 2011

The USD/CHF pair rose and retested the 1.18 level to prove it as resistance. The former support level proved too strong for the markets, and the pair fell again. The reality is the massive bear market continues, and should do so into the foreseeable future. The pair is a great “sell on the rally” pair, as that strategy has worked for years.

USD/CHF Weekly Fundamental Analysis for July 25– 29, 2011

The USD/CHF did a rebound in the week that ended July 22 after two weeks of drop as concerns regarding a possible default to the world’s largest economy eased after the introduction of a new plan Democratic and Republican Senators which boosted hopes that debt woes would be resolved.

Also, the ease in debt crisis after European leaders agreed to giveGreecea second bailout in addition to other measures to prevent the spread of contagion to other highly indebted nations in the region lowered haven demand on the franc which has been the most favorable refuge amid the European debt crisis.

With regard fundamentals, the Franc was adversely affected by the grim trade report which showed that trade surplus narrowed to 1.74 billion francs in June compared with the prior surplus of 3.25 billion francs.

Johann Schneider-Ammann, the Swiss Economy Minister, said the franc’s appreciation against the euro is “alarming.” Thus, an intervention by the SNB may be expected if the franc strengthened further.

In theU.S., housing data showed improvement but initial jobless claims rose, yet the dollar was much affected by debt talks.

This week, the spotlight will be on other housing data from theUnited Statessuch as new home sales and pending home sales, where strong attention will be given to 2q annualized GDP as it is expected to retreat.

The pace of growth is expected to show a slowdown in theUSeconomy as seen by second quarter data, yet it is largely due to the slowdown in global economies. The data is expected to have a remarkable impact on the pair, especially if it came higher or lower than anticipations.

On the other hand, the Swiss economy will release few and data of low relevance this week.

Monday July 25:

Both economies lack fundamentals which suggest that there would be calm trading on the pair that is expected to follow the general trend in market as it will not able to get direction from data.

Tuesday July 26:

As of 06:00 GMT, the Swiss economy will release UBS consumption Indicator for the month of June, yet the release is expected to have slight impact on the pair’s movements. In theU.S., the main focus will be housing data starting with S&P/caseShiller, due at 13:00 GMT, followed by new home sales due at 14:00 GMT, where they will provide evidence about the status of the housing market. At 14:00 GMT, consumer confidence is expected to drop to 57.9 in July from 58.5.

Wednesday July 27:

KoF Swiss leading indicator which is estimated to retreat to 2.10 in July from the preceding 2.29 will be available at 09:30 GMT. Thereafter, eyes will be on MBA mortgage applications for July 22 at 11:00 GMT followed by durable goods orders report for June which is expected to show a 0.3% rise in June from the prior 1.9% advance. Finally, at 18:00 GMT, Fed’s Beige book will be out.

Thursday July 28:

While the Swiss economy lacks fundamentals, theU.S.economy will release initial jobless claims for the week ending July 23 and continuing claims for the week ending July 16 will be available at 12:30 GMT. At 14:00 GMT, pending home sales report is expected to show 2.0% drop in June relative to 8.2% rise recorded in May.

Friday July 29:

The week ends with the release of important data from the U.S. as 2q annualized GDP, due at 12:30 GMT, will show an ease to 1.7% from 1.9% in the first quarter, according to median forecasts.UniversityofMichiganconfidence will be available at 13:55 GMT with projections referring to an incline to 64.0 in July from the prior 63.8.

USD/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for July 25, 2011

Both economies lack fundamentals which suggest that there would be calm trading on the pair that is expected to follow the general trend in market as it will not able to get direction from data.

The main sentiment in the markets is showing optimism after the announcement of a second bailout forGreeceas well as other measures that are expected to halt the spread of debt contagion to other debt-strapped nations in the region. Also, the report released last week showing that the White House will raise U.S. debt ceiling and reduce budget shortfall by nearly $3 trillion over the coming 10 years gave some hopes the debt problems in the U.S. would be resolved.

Thus, the dollar may continue its rebound against the franc as investors are estimated to leave the franc which is key safe haven amid mounting European debt crisis, especially as Johann Schneider-Ammann, the Swiss Economy Minister, said last week the franc’s appreciation against the euro is “alarming,” which shows that further appreciation in the franc is not welcomed by Swiss officials and may provoke an intervention.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis July 22, 2011

USD/CHF fell on Thursday, as the USD was sold against most other currencies. The CHF was weak against most currencies, so this shows exactly how weak the Dollar really is. The 0.83 level has held, and it appears that we are going lower yet again. We like selling rallies under 0.83 and selling new lows under the 0.8080 level.

USD/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for July 22, 2011

On Thursday trading, the dollar slipped sharply against a basket of major currencies including the Swiss franc, yet the decline against the franc was minimal as the franc was adversely affected by downbeat trade data.

The dollar continued its drop after the release of data showing that initial jobless claims rose to 418,000 in the week ended July 16 from 408,000 a week before. The Franc, on the other hand, fell earlier on Thursday versus the greenback after a report showing that trade surplus narrowed to 1.74 billion francs in June compared with the prior surplus of 3.25 billion francs. Johann Schneider-Ammann, the Swiss Economy Minister, said the franc’s appreciation against the euro is “alarming.” Thus, an intervention by the SNB may be expected if the franc strengthened further.

Moreover, the week ends with the release of no data from both economies which suggest that the pair will follow the general sentiment in market. The main focus this week is on the European Summit as eyes are on the action of European leaders to see whether they are able to launch a seco

USD/CHF Technical Analysis July 21, 2011

The USD/CHF fell on Wednesday, reversing much of the gains in this market that came on Tuesday. The pair is most certainly in a bear market, and we feel that only selling can be done. We like the idea of selling any and all rallies, as that strategy has worked for several years. Expect some bit of support around this area, (0.82) which could prove to be minor support.


USD/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for July 21, 2011

On Wednesday trading, the dollar slipped against a basket of major currencies including the Swiss franc. Tensions in the market eased to some extent on hopes European leaders will come out with a plan forGreeceandUSborrowing problem would be resolved.

U.S. Existing homes sales data showed 0.8% fall in June, yet higher than the prior 3.8% drop recorded in May.

On Thursday, at 09:00 GMT, the Swiss economy will release its only data for the week which is trade data for June with exports and imports during the month. The data will be under scrutiny as the recent reports showed that Swiss companies were negatively affected by the franc’s appreciation as it weighed on oversees sales.

Moreover, US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 16 and continuing claims for the week ending July 9 will be available at 12:30 GMT. Thereafter, leading indicators and Philadelphia Fed for the month of July are due at 14:00 GMT.  Attention will be given toU.S.labor data after the latest downbeat jobs report.

AsU.S.policy makers are on the track to find a solution to the debt problem, the dollar may gain some advance, while the Swiss trade data may determine the SNB coming action as Swiss policy makers revealed previously that further appreciation of the franc is not welcomed by the bank.