Silver markets have shown themselves to be somewhat resilient, as we have seen the market stabilize near the 200 day EMA. By doing so, it suggests that the market may be trying to save itself and therefore the overall trend. It should be noted that we are also near the $26 level, an area that has been important more than once. With both of those things going for it, a lot of attention will be paid to the testimony of Jerome Powell in front of Congress. If the Federal Reserve walks back some of its perceived hawkishness, that should put downward pressure on the US dollar, thereby adding a little bit of bullish pressure to silver.
SILVER Video 23.06.21
Silver markets have been in a major ascending triangle for some time, so should not be a huge surprise that we would bounce, and quite frankly I see a ton of support underneath that could come into play. Because of this, I am looking for some type of opportunity to get long based upon a bounce or a supportive candlestick. Furthermore, if we can break above the top of the inverted hammer from the Friday session, then the market is likely to go higher to fill the gap above. That would allow the market to go looking towards the $28 level, which is an area that historically it has allowed the market to go looking towards the $30 level as we have seen a couple of times. Regardless, it looks like a “buy on the dip” type of market.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has shown itself to be rather resilient during the trading session on Tuesday, hanging onto the massive gains from the previous session. Ultimately, the market is likely to go looking towards the $75 level above, which is the next major target. Short pullbacks from here make quite a bit of sense, just as people jumping in to take advantage of them does. Ultimately, I believe this is a market that will continue to see a lot of support below at the $70 level, as well as the top of the ascending triangle underneath at the $67.50 level. Based upon the “measured move”, the market could go looking towards the $77.50 level.
Crude Oil Video 23.06.21
Brent markets also have shown a proclivity to stay somewhat elevated, as the market has tested the $75 level during the trading session. Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to see plenty of buyers on dips, so I have no interest in shorting this market. In fact, I believe that the $70 level is the top of the ascending triangle underneath, which of course is supportive and beyond that we also have the 50 day EMA is testing that area to offer support as well. All things been equal, this is a market that I think continues to grind to the upside over the longer term, perhaps trying to reach towards the $80 level based upon the “measured move” of the triangle itself. All things being equal, the market is likely to see dips as opportunities to get involved again. Expect volatility, but we are still very bullish.
Natural gas markets have rallied a bit during the course of the trading session on Tuesday, as we continue to see upward pressure in general. The market has shown itself to be rather resilient and as a result I believe that we are going to continue to see a lot of noise in this general vicinity. If we can break above the $3.40 level, then it is possible we may have something bigger in store. Until then, I suspect that what we will see is a lot of noisy and volatile behavior.
NATGAS Video 23.06.21
Keep in mind that the markets have been positive overall, but they also have had a little bit of a “knock on effect” coming from the commodity boom in general. With that being said, we could see a complete turnaround rather quickly if the right conditions appear. A breakdown below the $3.15 level could be the beginning of a fairly significant selloff, but at the same time I can make an argument for this market going as high as $4.40. That is based upon the “measured move” of the consolidation area that we are attempting to break out of.
All things been equal, I would keep my position size somewhat small but keep in mind that this is a time of year that typically natural gas struggles a bit. Having said that, we do have some problems with tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico, so that could provide a little bit of a short-term boost regardless. As I see it right now, the market is essentially trading between the $3.40 level above, and the $3.15 level underneath.
Gold markets have gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Tuesday as we await the results of the conversation between Jerome Powell and Congress, and therefore it is worth noting that the gap above could get filled if he trashes the US dollar. At this point, the Federal Reserve does look as if it is trying to walk back some of the recent pseudo-hawkishness that we have heard and therefore it makes a certain amount of sense that perhaps gold may get a short-term boost.
Gold Price Predictions Video 23.06.21
To the downside, the $1750 level could offer a certain amount of support, as it was previous resistance. That being said, by the time we get through the congressional testimony, we could get a much clearer picture as to where the US dollar goes, and if it does in fact drop in value, that could send this market looking towards the $1850 level. Keep in mind that the market breaking down below the $1750 level could open up the possibility of a move down to the double bottom underneath the $1700 level.
All things been equal, this is a market that is a little bit oversold in the short term, and therefore a little bit of a bounce could make a certain amount of sense, but if we break above that gap above is a sign that the market could go looking towards the $1900 level, possibly even turn the entire thing around. That being said, I believe that this is a market that is on the precipice of something big, but we need to let the market determine the direction before putting money door.
The US dollar has rallied a bit during the course of the trading session on Wednesday as the market is awaiting the comments coming out of Jerome Powell. All things been equal, the market is likely to see the ¥111 level above has offered significant resistance more than once, so it will be interesting to see how it plays out this time. The market continues to see a lot of noise in that area, but if we were to break through the ¥111 level, it is possible that we could go looking towards the ¥112 level, but what this tells me is that there is a lot of resistance just above that could come into play.
USD/JPY Video 23.06.21
In other words, if we were to continue going higher, it might be easier to short the Japanese yen against other currencies instead of the greenback. This is not to say that you cannot trade this market, just that the momentum that you pick up will probably be somewhat limited. To the downside, if we were to break down below the hammer from the Monday session, that could send this market lower, perhaps reaching all the way down to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The 200 day EMA sits there, so that of course would make a certain amount of sense as well. Keep in mind that this pair is somewhat sensitive to risk appetite and of course with Jerome Powell speaking in front of Congress, he could throw a bit dollar around as well. By looking at the monthly chart, you can see just how much resistance there is just above.
The British pound has pulled back a bit during the course of the trading session on Tuesday as we continue to see a lot of choppiness while the market try to figure out whether or not the Federal Reserve is looking to tighten sooner or later. Quite frankly, this is probably the only thing that people care about right now, and therefore you will see a bit of erratic trading when it comes to the US dollar itself.
GBP/USD Video 23.06.21
Looking at this chart, it is easy to see that the 1.37 level offers support, just as the 1.3950 level shows resistance. We could be going back and forth in this general vicinity for a while, until we get some type of clarity. Will Jerome Powell offer it in front of Congress? I certainly hope so, because then we can make a much more professional decision on what to do about the trade. At this point time, the market is likely to see a lot of questions asked about the direction of the US dollar, which of course drives most of the Forex markets in general. I think at this point, we are still very much in an uptrend but if Powell or one of the other Federal Reserve officers get the market spooked again, we could see this pair breakdown rather rapidly.
At this juncture, I suggest that perhaps pound will do something to keep the markets calm, and therefore the US dollar losing value over the longer term, but it is not until we break above the 1.40 handle that I would be comfortable buying the British pound again, recognizing that we have a lot of work to do to break out above the recent highs.
The British pound has initially fallen during the trading session on Tuesday only to turn around and show signs of life again against the Japanese yen. Ultimately, I think that this is a market that is going to move on risk appetite, which seems to be coming back into the marketplace. With this, I think that we are looking at a scenario where the market is simply going to go back and forth depending on the latest headlines, but it certainly looks as if we are going to make a somewhat serious attempt to break towards the ¥155 level based upon the massive turnaround that we had during the session on Monday.
GBP/JPY Video 23.06.21
Furthermore, it is probably worth noting that we have been in an uptrend for quite some time, so it makes sense that we simply continue the same momentum. Ultimately, this is a market that continues to see volatility more than anything else, but it still looks as if it is going to be a “buy on the dips” type of situation. This is a market that continues to see a lot of choppy behavior, and of course will move on the latest headlines but at the end of the day it certainly looks as if we are ready to go higher.
Whether or not we can break above the ¥155 level would be a completely different situation, but at this point in time it certainly looks as if we are going to make a significant attempt to do so. Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues offer plenty of opportunities if you are patient enough.
The Euro has shown itself to be somewhat choppy over the last couple of days, which in a sense is a good turn of events for the Euro itself. After all, the market had been sold off rather drastically, so stabilization is certainly going to be welcomed by the bullish. On the other hand, we have not exactly taken out to the upside, and we do have to deal with the 200 day EMA, so that will certainly be worth paying attention to as well.
EUR/USD Video 23.06.21
When I look at this chart, I believe that the resistance above is at the 200 day EMA and the 1.1830 level is offering support. I anticipate that Jerome Powell will say something in front of Congress to make a move one direction or the other, and at that point in time it should simply be a matter of following the market in whichever direction it chooses. Until then, I do not necessarily believe that the market will have the necessary clarity to get moving. In the short term, it probably becomes more or less a scalping type of environment, but I do believe that a move is coming in the next day or two should determine the next several handles. Until then, I am sitting on the sidelines and waiting for clarity.
Keep in mind that the US dollar will drive where this pair goes more than anything else, so if Jerome Powell does suggest that the Federal Reserve is going to stay as loose as possible going forward, that probably gives the signal that the Euro will break out. On the other hand, if he continues to suggest that tightening is coming, that could send this market towards the 1.17 handle over the next couple of weeks.
The Australian dollar has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Tuesday as we continue to see a lot of questions about the 0.75 handle and of course the 200 day EMA. Ultimately, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of choppy behavior, but if we can recover and rally towards the 0.76 level, that means that the Aussie should continue to climb and recover most of the losses. With that being the case, we could very well see more of a “risk on” attitude around the world when it comes to markets in general, which of course helps the Aussie in and of itself.
AUD/USD Video 23.06.21
Keep in mind that Jerome Powell will be speaking in front of Congress during the trading session, so it does of course suggests that there could be a bit of volatility when it comes to the US dollar. Nonetheless, I think at this point in time we are looking at a potential decision-making point, as a break down below the bottom of the last couple of candlesticks could be rather negative. We will probably see a bit of choppy behavior, but ultimately, I think that we will be making a very significant move rather quickly.
With that being the case, I am paying close attention to these levels and will be trading accordingly for what I believe will be the next significant move. Ultimately, I think given enough time this market makes a nice move, but this currently looks as if it is going to be based upon the Federal Reserve more than anything else.
The tide has turned against Micron Technology Inc. (MU) in recent weeks, raising odds the memory chipmaker will trade at much lower levels in coming months. Long-term resistance, downgrades, and predictions that DRAM prices soften in the second half have weighed on second quarter price action, dumping the stock more than 20% since April’s 21-year high. More importantly, it’s now reached a support level that bulls need to hold at all costs.
Softening Chip Prices
The stock roared to higher ground in 2020, posting a 40% annual return in reaction to firming prices for all sorts of memory chips. It continued to gain ground in the first quarter of 2021, with chip shortages all across the world keeping a floor under prices. However, analysts now worry that prices will drop in the second half as supply ramps up and meets demand, potentially returning Micron to its long-term status as an on-again off-again cyclical play.
Cleveland Research downgraded Micron to ‘Neutral’ last week, with analyst Chandler Converse predicting that Q3 DRAM ASPs will end up “lower than expected” and that Q4 may be “flat to down”. However, he’s looking for higher NAND ASP prices due to “controller shortages and a lower inventory build among customers compared to DRAM.” Even so, it will be hard to sustain the highest stock price in more than two decades when a key revenue driver loses altitude.
Wall Street and Technical Outlook
Wall Street consensus is still riding the bull train, with a ‘Buy’ rating based upon 25 ‘Buy’ and 6 ‘Hold’ recommendations. No analysts are recommending that shareholders close positions and move to the sidelines. Price targets currently range from a low of $90 to a Street-high $172 while the stock is set to open Tuesday’s session more than $12 below the low target. This major disconnect indicates that Main Street investors believe the current price is unsustainable.
Micron sold off from 97.50 to 1.59 between 2000 and 2008, finally turning higher into the new decade. It spent another decade or so carving a 5-wave rally pattern that stalled within 54-cents of the Net bubble high in April 2021. That high marks major resistance, often taking months or years to overcome. The stock has lost ground since that time, reaching 200-day moving average support this week. A breakdown is likely, given active monthly and weekly sell cycles.
Cryptocurrencies can’t seem to get out of their own way lately, and it is showing in investor sentiment. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has reached a reading of 10, which is a reflection of extreme fear. And while billionaire investor Warren Buffett may not be a cryptocurrency fan, bitcoin investors might want to apply some of his investment advice to the current situation: “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”
One bitcoin miner who is apparently bucking the fearful trend is Chun Wang, whose Twitter account is @satofishi with more than 25K followers. Chun, a co-founder of China’s f2pool, said that he scooped up 1,100 bitcoins in recent days, with a price tag of more than USD 35 million, and is not done with his buying spree. He will seemingly find a bargain.
The bitcoin price is currently hovering at USD 31,408, having shaved more than 50% from its market cap since its all-time high of more than USD 63,000. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has been oscillating between fear and extreme fear for weeks and last showed a tendency toward greed before mid-May.
Bitcoin USD 100K or Bust
Crypto analyst PlanB, who boasts more than 584K followers on Twitter, has shared some stats that underpin the extreme fear that is currently permeating the market. According to a Twitter poll he led, slightly more than 40% of survey participants expect that bitcoin will trade below the USD 100K threshold this year, which he noted invalidates the stock-to-flow (S2F) model.
While that percentage might not seem alarming, it was only 16% a few months ago when he conducted a similar poll in March. At that time, the bulls were in charge and the bitcoin price was trading at USD 55.
What a difference 3 months make!
41% now thinks bitcoin will stay below $100K in 2021 (invalidating S2F model) vs 16% in March (when BTC was $55K). pic.twitter.com/S9PKR8FSnb
One high-profile trader who is clearly not taking Buffett’s advice is Jim Cramer. The CNBC commentator has been gripped by the fear and as a result has parted with most of his bitcoin holdings, saying on the business network that he didn’t need it.
Cramer was spooked by a one-two punch of China’s bitcoin mining crackdown and the stigma attached to bitcoin on the heels of the Colonial Pipeline attack. Cramer, who had already started shrinking his BTC portfolio before the latest negative developments, reportedly expects neither the Chinese regime nor the U.S. government to be kind to the cryptocurrency market.
The S&P 500 has bounced quite nicely during the course of the trading session on Monday, as traders start to weigh upon the idea of whether or not the Federal Reserve is going to be able to tighten rates. The overreaction seems to be getting work against, and therefore it is very likely that we will go looking towards the all-time highs, and perhaps break above there. Once we do it opens up the possibility of a move to the 4400 level.
S&P 500 Video 22.06.21
To the downside, the 50 day EMA also offer support, right along with the 4000 level underneath that is not only a large, round, psychologically significant figure, but it is also an area where we have a gap that will also have an influence on whether or not we can stabilize. If we were to break down below the 4000 handle, then it is possible that we could go looking towards the 200 day EMA, which at that point I would be a buyer of puts. I have no interest in shorting this market whatsoever, due to the fact that the Federal Reserve has already started to walk back some of their hawkish comments, and therefore it shows just how beholden to Wall Street that the Fed is.
We are still very much in an uptrend, but one thing that I look at more than anything else is the fact that we continue to see buyers jump in based upon the fact that there is plenty of liquidity out there, and the Federal Reserve is nowhere near tightening things, despite the fact that they have recently shown a proclivity to confuse the market yet again.
Silver markets have fallen initially during the trading session on Monday, but as you can see the market has turned around quite significantly from the 200 day EMA area, showing signs of stability again. The $26 level of course is an area that has been important more than once, and the fact that it was preceded by an inverted hammer suggests to me that the market is likely to go into more or less a sideways move than anything else, as there is conflicting pressure on both sides. Because of this, I think that if you will are a longer-term trader, then this is more or less going to be a “buy-and-hold” situation, while the shorter-term trader is probably going to be more focused on the back and forth action in this general vicinity.
SILVER Video 22.06.21
I am not concerned about the longer-term attitude of silver at this point, at least as long as we can stay above the 200 day EMA and of course the massive uptrend line that forms the ascending triangle. With that, I still look at this as a market that you should be a buyer up, not a seller. If we can break above the top of the inverted hammer on Friday, that would be a very bullish sign, sending this market looking towards the $28 level again. Breaking above that then has the market testing the major barrier that extends to the $30 handle, offering a glimpse of a potential longer-term break out to send this market looking towards the $50 level based upon historical precedence.
That being said, I think we have a lot of noise to deal with right now, and therefore you should keep your position size small enough to reflect that.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has rallied just a bit during the trading session to gain over 1% as market participants have reached towards the highs again. The global economy appears to be reopening, and that of course is going to drive prices higher as it has become somewhat of a “one-way trade.” Ultimately, I like the idea of buying pullbacks and it should continue to respect the $70 level, which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. If we break down below there, the $67.50 level would be supportive as well, as it was the top of the ascending triangle. I believe at this point in time, the market is likely to go looking towards the $77.50 level.
Crude Oil Video 22.06.21
Brent markets have rallied during the trading session on Monday, to reach towards the $75 level. If we can break above the $75 level, then the market is likely to go looking towards the $80 level. This is the “measured move” of the ascending triangle, and of course we have the 50 day EMA reaching towards the top of the ascending triangle, adding more credence to the idea of the $70 level to be supportive.
It is not until we break down below the bottom of the ascending triangle in either one of these grades that I would be a seller. I do not see that happening anytime soon, and of course with the world waking back up, it makes quite a bit of sense that demand will continue to push this market higher. At this point, I have no interest in shorting anytime soon.
Natural gas markets have fallen a bit during the course of the trading session on Monday as we continue to see gravity come back into the picture. The commodity market boom continues in general, but that is only a bit of a sideline to the real fundamentals of this market, as it may have gotten a bit of a boost due to the fact that people are simply looking to buy anything commodity related. However, the natural gas markets will continue to be a bit noisy in general, but we also have a significant amount of support underneath.
NATGAS Video 22.06.21
Natural gas as a major oversupply in general, but all things being equal, the market is likely to continue to respect the $3.40 level, as it has been major resistance previously, and it is worth noting that we had a rather negative candlestick form when we did get close to it. All things been equal, I think that the market probably continues to see a lot of sellers in that area, perhaps showing a bit of hesitation.
Ultimately, this is a market that I believe has a possible break down just waiting to happen, with the $3.00 level being an obvious support level, right along with the 50 day EMA. Underneath that level would open up the possibility of a move down to the $2.80 level, which is the top of the gap that had been broken to the upside. The 200 day EMA is sitting in that area, so it does make quite a bit of sense that it would offer a bit of a “floor.”
Gold markets have rallied during the trading session on Monday as we continue to see a lot of noise in this market. The 200 day EMA above at the $1811 level and should offer a bit of resistance if we get there. If we can break above it, then it would be very bullish sign for gold, sending it much higher to fill the gap above which started out the $1861 level and drops down to roughly $1810 underneath. The 50 day EMA sits in that general vicinity but is turning lower. At any rally at this point time could show signs of exhaustion that we could get involved with.
Gold Price Predictions Video 22.06.21
If we break down below the bottom, then the $1750 level would be the next target, as it could be supportive based upon previous action, but more likely than not we will see an attempt to break down even further if we do fall from here. The market is likely to see a lot of selling pressure in general if we do get the breakdown, but at this point in time I think the one thing you can probably count on more than anything else is going to be a lot of choppy and noisy behavior as we continue to see confusion about the Federal Reserve and of course what they are going to do next.
All things been equal, we will probably have multiple opportunities to trade back and forth on short-term charts, if you are so inclined to trade shorter-term charts. We will make a longer-term decision sooner rather than later, and once we do the trade will become much more obvious.
The US dollar fell a bit during the course of the trading session on Monday, breaking down towards the ¥109.50 level, only to turn around and show signs of life. As we have bounced significantly, the market looks as if it is trying to form a bit of a hammer. That is a very bullish sign, but we also have recently struggled at the ¥111 level, which of course is an area that I have mentioned more than once as significant resistance. Furthermore, the MACD shows divergence, which is also another reason to suspect that we might be running into a little bit of trouble.
USD/JPY Video 22.06.21
Underneath, the 50 day EMA sits near the ¥109.25 level, and that could offer a little bit of dynamic support. That being said, if we break down below it, we could go looking towards the ¥109 level, perhaps even below there to go looking towards the 200 day EMA. The 200 day EMA would of course be very crucial to pay attention to but what I think at this point we are looking at is a market that is trying to determine whether or not a longer-term “double top” has been put in the case.
All things being equal, I think that we will see a lot of noisy behavior, and at this point in time I believe that the ¥111 level is a major resistance barrier that will be very difficult to overcome, so at this point in time I think we continue to chop around and perhaps see more pressure building up for a potential pullback based upon the historical value of the area as a ceiling.
The British pound has rallied a bit during the course of the trading session on Monday to bounce from the 1.38 level. That is an area that has been fairly important for some time now, and therefore it makes sense that we bounced just a bit after falling straight down towards it. The question now is whether or not we can find some type of upward momentum? At this point, it is worth noting that although we are still technically in an uptrend, we had seen a lot of damage over the last couple of days.
GBP/USD Video 22.06.21
The 200 day EMA is currently reaching towards the 1.3650 level, an area that I think will offer a bit of support, but it will be interesting to see whether or not it reaches towards the 1.3750 level. That is an area that previously had been important, so it is worth paying attention to. I think we probably get a short-term bounce, but a lot of noise above the keep things somewhat quiet in the short term.
This is the type of market that could be very noisy over the next several sessions, so I anticipate more neutral trading than anything else. I do think that we are probably going to make an impulsive move in one direction, or the other hand be able to follow it. In general, this is a market that I think is probably best being cautious with, if for no other reason than the fact that the British pound does not seem as if it knows what it wants to do over the next several weeks.
The British pound has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Monday as we have been all over the place when it comes to risk appetite. After all, this is a pair that is very sensitive to risk appetite, and this is why we have seen so much in the way of noise. Looking at this chart, I believe that it is worth noting that the candlestick for the trading session on Monday shows a lot of confusion, and I think that is a good sign of what is ready to hit the market.
GBP/JPY Video 22.06.22
If we break above the top of the candlestick for the trading session on Monday, that would be very bullish, and I think we would go looking towards the ¥155 level. However, if we were to break down below the bottom of the candlestick it is very possible that we go looking towards the ¥150 level underneath. All things being equal, I think we are going to continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, but if we get more of a “risk off” type of attitude out there, then that will more than likely bring this pair lower.
If we break down below the ¥150 level, that could be a very negative sign, perhaps sending this market down towards the ¥147.50 level, and then after that down to the ¥145 level. In general, this is a market that I think you will need to be very cautious about your position size, but it is worth noting that we have been very bullish for a long time, so I am a bit hesitant to put a lot of money to work.