Speculators Keep Piling Into Agriculture Commodities

Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.

The below summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex, bonds and stock indices up until last Tuesday, April 27. A week where U.S. index futures resumed their ascent, the dollar continued lower while US Treasury yields ticked higher, while staying within their established ranges. Commodities surged higher led by very strong gains in grains and soft commodities.

Commodities

Money managers increased bullish commodities bets with the total net long across 24 major commodity futures rising by 4% to 2.5 million lots, representing a nominal value of $137 billion. This in response to a 3.6% rise in the Bloomberg Commodity index to a fresh ten year high. The bulk of the increase was concentrated in grains and soft commodities which rallied by 8.6% and 7.3% respectively. The biggest individual position increases was seen in sugar, coffee, wheat, gas, oil and copper.

Energy

The combined net long in crude oil reached a six-week high at 677k, with the increase being led by WTI while speculators kept an almost unchanged position in Brent, primarily due to an increased amount of naked short selling. The biggest change was seen in gas oil where the net long came close to a one-year high.

Latest: Crude oil futures trade lower for a second day with the uneven demand recovery creating a somewhat challenging outlook. In India, April gasoline demand fell to the lowest level since August and increased curbs on mobility may trigger further declines into May. This at a time when higher fuel consumption is being recorded in the U.S., China and the U.K. and OPEC+ during the next three months begins to add barrels back into the market. The outlook is further being clouded by uncertainty about U.S. production growth and Iran nuclear negotiations where a deal could trigger rising production. For now, Brent crude oil trades within an ascending channel, currently between $64 and $69.

Metals

A relatively quiet week in precious metals with gold’s failure to build on the recent break above $1765 attracting fresh short selling resulting in the bulk of the 6k reduction in the net long being driven by new short positions. Silver length increased by 8% and platinum by 25% on tailwinds from surging industrial metals. The 6.3% rally in HG copper helped attract new longs with the net rising by 23% to 55.5k lots, still well below the December peak at 91.5k lots and the 2017 record at 125k lots.

Latest: Gold (XAUUSD) and silver (XAGUSD) continue to frustrate bulls and bears alike given their inability to break current ranges. Both trading higher today after surviving another downside attempt on Friday when the dollar suddenly jumped. US Treasury yields continue to trade range bound with rising breakeven (inflation expectations) being offset by lower real yields. Speculators cut length in COMEX futures last week while ETF holdings remain stuck near a one-year low. Current range in gold being $1755 to $1800.

Agriculture

Most of the speculative buying last week was concentrated in the agriculture sector (ex. livestock) with most grains and softs contracts seeing strong gains. Most noticeable being the strong gains in corn, wheat, sugar and coffee with dry weather in South America and the U.S. plains hurting the production prospects. The combined long in corn, soybeans and wheat reached a fresh record and with the latter well below previous peak positions, further length could be added over the coming weeks. In softs, the coffee long almost doubled while the sugar long jumped by 15% to 258k lots, the third highest exposure on record.

Latest: The Bloomberg Grains Spot index, already at an 8 year high continues higher today led by corn (CORNJUL21) and (WHEATJUL21). In corn, the spread between the July (old crop) and December (new crop) contracts has widened to 115 cents per bushel, and it highlights the current stress in the spot market as a powerful La Nina disrupts harvests in Brazil with dry weather cutting the production outlook by 8% to 104m tons. Adding to the current unease has been record Chinese imports while US planting progress and weather developments will be watched for clues as to the direction of the new crop contracts, such as December. Weekly U.S. planting progress data due later at 20:00 GMT

Forex

Broad speculative dollar selling lifted the net short against ten IMM currency futures and the Dollar Index by 30% to $10.3 billion, a six week high. The dollar was sold against all the major currencies with the bulk of the change being led by short-covering in Japanese yen where 11k lots ($1,3 bn equivalent) was bought.

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.

Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other.

Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other.

Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators).

The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are:

  • They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged.
  • This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments.
  • It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank.

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This article is provided by Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Pty. Ltd, part of Saxo Bank Group through RSS feeds on FX Empire

Another Year of Plenty Awaits the Grain Market

What is our trading focus?

  • WHEATJUL20 – CBOT Wheat
  • CORNJUL20 – Corn
  • SOYBEANSJUL20 – Soybeans

Grain prices are generally trading softer following the monthly release yesterday of the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report (WASDE) from the US Department of Agriculture.

This was the first report to include projections for ending stocks at the end of the new 2020-21 crop year which runs until August next year. Across the board, another year of plenty of supplies is being projected with only a deteriorating weather outlook over the coming months preventing another bumper harvest in the U.S. and around the world.

Key takeaways:

Corn: Supplies will rise to their highest in 33 years due to massive plantings and what is expected to be a record crop in the 2020/21 marketing year.

Soybeans: The USDA raised its fore forecast of 2019-20 soybean ending stocks to 580 million bushels, up from 480 million last month and above the highest expectations. For 2020-21 the ending stocks was projected to fall to 405 million bushels, below the average estimate.

Wheat: While lowering the projected 2020-21 U.S. ending stocks to 909 million bushels from 978 million this year, it was still well above expectations at 819 million. Adding further pressure to U.S. wheat prices was the a jump in global ending stocks to a record 310 million tons. A recovery in Russian and Australian productions thereby making it harder for U.S. farmers to compete for export orders, unless the dollar should weaken over the coming period.

The uptrend in wheat from the 2019 low is once again being challenged with a break below $5.05/bu on the continuation chart signalling an extension to the next key level of support at $4.91/bu, the March 17 low.

Corn meanwhile remains stuck near a 13-year low with support at the psychological important $3/bu level so far holding. The price has struggled amid the outlook for another bumper crop emerging across the U.S. plains together with stiff competition from producers in Argentina and Brazil both reaping the benefit from much weaker currency. Adding to the recent weakness has been the collapsing oil price as it has cut demand from ethanol producers who normally account for one-third of U.S. demand.

Soybeans has been trading sideways for the past two years with the price struggling to move higher from a near 12 year low around $8/bu. Worries about Chinese demand as the Covid-19 blame game heats up and the mentioned competition from exporters in Brazil and Argentina are two of the main obstacles keeping the price down.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank.

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This article is provided by Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Pty. Ltd, part of Saxo Bank Group through RSS feeds on FX Empire

Grain Futures Update – 12/20/2019

With the Phase One Trade Deal signed, Stephen discusses how China will impact the grains through the use of monthly charts.

If you found this article insightful, please consider a complimentary subscription to the weekly RJO FuturesCast newsletter.


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Negative Week for Grain Prices Due to Weather and Optimism in Trade

Grains such as soybeans, corn, and wheat are trading with a negative note on Friday as investors are closing positions ahead of the weekend. Agricultural futures are ready to close the week with losses.

Soybean contracts down for the second day

ZS1 Soybean Futures 1-hour chart Sept 6
ZS1 Soybean Futures 1-hour chart Sept 6

Soybean is trading in consolidation mode after the deep decline performed on Thursday. Investors are trading in profit-taking mode ahead of the weekend.

On Thursday, soy was rejected by the 8.80 area, and it fell 1.60% to close at 8.61. On Friday, the grain attempted a recovery, but the dovish pressure was too intense, and it is now trading 0.12% down.

On the week, soybean is ready to close its third negative week in the last four, this time with a drop of 0.80% in the period. The unit has been trading in a range between 8.62 and 8.80 for a month.

Technical indicators are suggesting more room for the downside. However, the mentioned 8.62, and the 8.45 area are containing the unit.

Corn breaks below 3.56 and trades at near 4-month lows

ZC1 Corn Futures 1-hour chart Sept 6
ZC1 Corn Futures 1-hour chart Sept 6

Corn is trading negative on Friday after a brief period of consolidation on Thursday. However, the picture is really dovish and even more now that the pair broke below the 3.56 support and is trading at 3.55, its lowest level since May 13.

Currently, futures of corn are trading at 3.56, 0.63% negative on the day. Technical conditions remain bearish for the unit with the 3.50 and 3.40 areas as next support zones.

On the week, corn resumed its free-fall from 3.76 after the recovery performed the previous week. This time, corn contracts are falling 3.60% on the period. The technical picture is also very dovish.

Wheat stops two days of gains and falls on Friday

ZW1 Wheat 1-hour chart September 6
ZW1 Wheat 1-hour chart September 6

Wheat is trading down on Friday as investors are taking profits ahead of the weekend and after two days of gains. The grain is trading 0.75% down at 4.62, and it is heading to test the 4.60 area.

On the week, futures of wheat are fighting to close the period in positive, but the odds are against it as technical indicators are suggesting more declines before the end of the session. Wheat is trading 0.05% negative on the week.

Coffee on consolidation mode below 100.00

Futures of coffee has been trading in a small range between 95.00 and 98.00 during the whole week. Consequently, the unit is posting a weekly decline, but the drop is not that much. Coffee contracts have declined 1.50% in the week.

Soybeans, Corn Collapsed After a Good AMIS Report

Grains such as soybeans, corn, and wheat are trading down on Thursday as investors are digesting the latest AMIS crop report and optimistic news about new trade talks.

The market sentiment improved considerably on Thursday. Investors welcomed the announcement of a new round of trade talks between the United States and China in October.

However, a new crop report showing that forecast for supply in grains was lifted sharply, “mostly reflecting a massive upward revision for the US,” pushed prices down.

According to the Agricultural Market Information System market monitor for September, “world maize production has been lifted sharply in view of a massive upward revision for the US. Rice production is also seen higher while wheat production is expected to increase to a record. In the case of soybeans, a projected year-on-year decline in output is unlikely to become a concern, as overall supplies remain adequate, especially given the dampening impact of African Swine Fever on feed demand in China.”

AMIS highlighted that money managers liquidated long positions in wheat and corn, “establishing modest short holdings for both.” However, in the case of soybeans, “it added to its net short position m/m.”

Soybeans down on Thursday and lost two days of gains

ZS1 Soybean 1-hour chart September 5
ZS1 Soybean 1-hour chart September

Futures of soybean are trading down on Thursday as investors are digesting the latest AMIS report. Improving supply expectations and long position liquidations are pushing prices lower.

Early in the day, soybeans traded higher to 8.78, intra-day high. But the news and a rejection of that level sent the unit down to 8.65. The contract of soy is now priced at 8.65, which is 1.10% negative on the day.

Technical indicators are suggesting more declines in the short and middle term. The next support is at 8.63, followed by the 8.60 area. Be aware of stop-loss triggering below 8.60.

Corn consolidates losses around 3.59

ZC1 Corn 1-hour chart September 5
ZC1 Corn 1-hour chart September 5

Corn is trading positive on Thursday for the first time in the last five sessions as investors are digesting the AMIS report.

“In the US, the crop is progressing under mixed conditions across much of the corn belt due to the late sowing this season,” the report says. “Final yields will depend on how the weather performs over the next month.”

In this framework, futures of corn attempted to bounce from 3.56 per bushel, but the 3.61 level contained the unit. Corn is now trading 0.10% positive on the day at 3.58, but it is losing steam.

Wheat posts second day of gains, but it stopped its advance

ZW1 Wheat 1-hour chart September 5
ZW1 Wheat 1-hour chart September 5

Wheat is performing its second day of gains on Thursday, but recent crop report news hurt the unit and it pared gains at 4.69.

The unit is now trading at 4.66, 1.03% positive in the day. Oscillators are suggesting a turn in the direction for the unit, but the 4.64 is supporting the contract. Watch out for the 4.60 area, followed by the 4.56 and 4.50 levels for supports.

Grains Mixed on Better Crop Conditions and Hopes for US Grains Demand

Soybeans, corn, and wheat are trading mixed on Wednesday as grain investors are digesting news from the USDA regarding crop ratings and US grain exports.

Soybeans higher amid robust export inspections

ZW1 Wheat futures 1-hour chart September 4
ZW1 Wheat futures 1-hour chart September 4

Soybeans are trading positive for the third day in a row, but the movement remains in a small range between 8.60 and 8.80. Investors welcomed news about an increase in export inspections.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported they inspected 1.28 million metric tons of soybeans for overseas delivery between August 23 and 29, which was a 33% increase from the previous seven days and also an increase from the 776.277 metric tonnes reported in the same period of 2018.

Soybean investors are taking the news as a signal that the demand from U.S. supplies has started to grow again.

Besides, the weekly crop report was released and showed that soybeans crop remained unchanged with a 55% rated good/excellent, which is considerably lower than the 66% a year ago. Soybean blooming and pods are also below five-year averages.

In that framework, futures of soybeans attempted a decisive run overnight, but the unit was capped at 8.74. Then, it started to fall to current levels around 8.69. Soy is currently flat on the day.

However, the odds have changed for soybeans as technical indicators are signaling a bullish extension is gaining momentum in the daily chart. The positive sentiment is even more prominent in the 1-hour chart with oscillators and moving average pointing to the upside too.

If the pair holds above the 8.68, it will recover until the 8.74 again. Then, 8.78 is waiting for the unit.

To the downside, below the 8.68, soybean contracts will find buying interest at 8.62 and 8.60.

Corn extends decline for the fourth day

ZC1 Corn futures 1-hour chart September 4
ZC1 Corn futures 1-hour chart September 4

Futures of corn are trading lower again on Wednesday as investors crop conditions have improved in the last week. Corn is now heading to test August 14 low at 3.58.

Corn crops were rated 58% good or excellent, above the 57% condition the previous week. According to the USDA, corn was in dough stage at 81%, well below the 93% in the five-year average.

Earlier in the day, corn was trading slightly positive, but after failing at the 3.63 level, it started to fall and it broke Tuesday’s lows at 360 and extended drops to the current 3.59. Corn is now 0.50% negative in the day, trading at lows of the session.

Technical indicators suggest that the unit is oversold so that a brief bounce could be expected. However, both the 1-hour and the daily chart suggests more dovishness.

If corn consolidates levels below 3.60, next support will be at 3.58, followed by 3.55 and 2.50. Any potential upside will need the unit to break above 3.63.

Wheat pared gains at 4.60, back to test 4.55

ZW1 Wheat futures 1-hour chart September 4
ZW1 Wheat futures 1-hour chart September 4

Futures of wheat are showing some signal of being alive with its first positive session in the last five trading days. On Wednesday, wheat is consolidating losses after the declined performed since August 28 high around 4.78.

The USDA reported that U.S. spring wheat harvest is 55% completed, well above the 78% average by this time in the previous five years.

Early in the day, wheat tested the 4.60 in an attempt to recover more ground from Tuesday minimums at 4.50. However, the unit was rejected by the 4.60 area, and contracts were sent to be traded at 4.55.

The unit is still 0.45% positive in the day, but technical indicators are signaling that the upside recovery is not too active. A retest of the 4.50 area is expected unless the unit breaks above the 4.60 resistance.

Soybeans, Corn down; Wheat at 4-month lows

Corn, soybeans and other soft futures such as wheat are trading down on Monday as investors are digesting the last set of tariffs on Chinese products, improved weather and supply conditions.

Soybeans start trading with a negative gap

ZS1 Soybean 1-hour chart September 3
ZS1 Soybean 1-hour chart September 3
ZC1 Corn 1-hour chart September 3
ZC1 Corn 1-hour chart September 3

Futures of soybeans are trading negative on Tuesday as investors are digesting improved weather forecast and concerns amid the trade war and the new set of tariffs that the United States put on play Sunday.

Soybeans are currently trading 0.60% negative in the session after opening the day with a negative gap at 8.66. Then, the unit fell to be bought as cheap as 8.59, where it found support. It is now at 8.64.

Technical indicators suggest more room for the downside with Momentum, Awesome Oscillator and MACD signaling bearish conditions in the 1-hour chart.

However, in the bigger picture, soybeans are trading in a range between 8.55 and 8.80.

Soybean investors were slightly less dovish last week as the CoT showed that net short positions were declined to 75,551 in the August 27 week from 76,820.

Corn falls for the third session and tests the 3.64 area

ZW1 Wheat 1-hour chart September 3
ZW1 Wheat 1-hour chart September 3

Corn is trading negative for the third session as the unit is testing the 3.64 area as investors are digesting improved weather conditions in the last days.

According to the CoT report, investors increased their net-short positions in corn to 96,370 in the week of August 27, the highest level in three months. Up from 82,266 the previous week.

So, with investors betting on lower prices, Corn futures look ready to break below the 3.64 area. Besides, technical indicators in the 1-hour chart are also signaling for more drops in the next few hours.

Below 3.64, corn will find support at 3.63 and then 3.60. Finally, the grain would open the door for a retest of the 3.58 area, August’s lows.

Wheat extends decline to lowest since May 16

Futures of wheat are trading down for the fourth negative day as investors are digesting reports of abundant global supplies. However, the CoT report showed that net short contracts declined to 37,330 for hard-red winter futures contracts in the week of August 27, down from 40,404 the previous week.

The trend in futures of wheat is clearly bearish with the unit extending declines steadily from the 4.77 area traded on August 29. Earlier in the day, the unit broke below the 4.62 area and after a small pullback, it extended loses to test the 4.56 level.

Currently, Wheat futures are trading at 4.57’6, which is 1.05% negative on the day. In the one-hour chart, technical indicators are mixed with oscillators going north but Momentum and moving averages signaling for more drops. So, a brief period of consolidation is expected around 4,58, but the big picture remains bearish.

Wheat will see next support at 4.53, then, 4.50 and the 4.30 area. To the upside, ZW1! is contained by the 4.60 area and then, 4.62 will act as resistance.

Grains to Close Week, Month With Losses, All About Trade War

Grains are trading mixed on Friday but with a negative note on August as investors are still waiting for trade war developments. As for now, conciliatory words between US and China are giving some hopes.

“The most important thing is to create the necessary conditions for continuing negotiations, said Gao Feng, a spokesman for China’s Commerce Ministry. However, he said that China has an arsenal of measures for retaliation. However, they don’t want to use it.

Despite the conciliatory tone, the market is reluctant to believe in everything China and the United States said, as it seems they want to have a prolonged trade war. Farmers, then, are suffering the consequences.

Soybean ready to close August with gains

ZS1 Futures of Soybean 1-hout chart August 30
ZS1 Futures of Soybean 1-hout chart August 30

Soybeans are trading positive for the third day in a row as investors welcomed conciliatory feeling between the two parts involved in the trade war. On Friday, futures of soybeans jumped to trade as high as 8.78 per bushel, but the level resisted and it sent the unit back to previous levels.

Profit-taking ahead of the end of the week and month is keeping the grain out of higher prices. Currently, soybean is trading 0.60% positive on the day at 8.73.

On the technical analysis front, odds are for a bullish extension in the short and middle terms as studies on both, the 1-hour and daily charts, are pointing to the upside.

On the week, soybean is closing the first positive period in the last three weeks. The oilseed is posting a 2.10% weekly gain, recovering almost all losses experienced in the previous two weeks.

In the monthly chart, soybean is closing August with a 0.63% gain as the unit was on time to reverse losses in the first half of the month, but the benefit is not that big. August would be the third month of gains in the last four. The monthly chart also suggests that the grain is moving in a long term range between 8.44 and 9.30.

Corn down amid profit-taking

ZC1 Futures of Corn 1-hour chart August 30
ZC1 Futures of Corn 1-hour chart August 30

Corn is trading down for the second day as investors are closing positions ahead of the end of the month. Early in the day, the contract attempted to break above the 3.74 level, but it wasn’t successful.

Currently, corn is trading 0.40% negative at 3.69. The unit is now testing the 3.69 area, which is the support that is containing the downside. Below there, the next frontier would be 3.66.

On the week, corn is giving signals of life as the unit is performing its first period of gains after the sell of experienced in the last three weeks. Thought the move is on a consolidation phase rather than a recovery.

The month is also an ugly picture for corn as it is closing its third negative period. The unit has now entered on full steam into the long term range traded between July 2014 and May 2019 between 3.40 and 4.00.

Wheat breaks below 4.62 and trades at lows since May

ZW1 Futures of Wheat 1-hour chart August 30
ZW1 Futures of Wheat 1-hour chart August 30

Futures of wheat are trading negative on Friday with the unit breaking below the 4.62 area and extending drops to 4.59, its lowest level since May 16.

Previously in the day, wheat traded around 4.66, but a break below the 4.64 triggered stop losses that fueled declines to 4.62, where another batch of stop losses was activated. Then, the unit found support just below the 4.60 area.

Currently, the unit is trading at 4.60, 2.50% negative on the day.

On the week, the unit is falling 3.50%, extending losses after the previous week small recovery.

On the month, wheat is falling for the second period, with August performing 5.28% down in the period. Overall, wheat is inside a downtrend with the 4.20 area as the most likely destiny.

Grains roundup for August 30

Coffee is down in the day, week, and month as futures of coffee weren’t able to break above the 98.00 area. The contract is now traded at 95.25, 2.15% down. On the week, coffee is 0.11% down after attempting a recovery that was capped at 98.50. In the bigger picture, coffee is closing August with a 3.25% decline, extending the already sell-off of 10.30% of value performed in July. Technical analysis suggests more declines in all frame times.

ZC1 Futures of Coffee 1-day chart August 30
ZC1 Futures of Coffee 1-day chart August 30

Sugar is having the same story of coffee with declines in the day, week, and month. The trend in the sugar futures is even more visible to the downside with prices at 11-month lows around 11.10. The unit is closing its fifth negative week in a row, and its second month with red numbers in a row. August is 8.20% negative for sugar.

SB1 Futures of Sugar 1-day chart August 30
SB1 Futures of Sugar 1-day chart August 30

Happy weekend and stay safe!

Soybeans Extend Gains, Wheat Down but Signaling a Bullish Recovery

Corn, Soybeans, and other softs futures are trading mixed as investors are booking profits ahead of the end of the month. Besides, grain traders are watching weather conditions in the Midwest of the United States.

Soybeans positive for the second day

ZS1 Soybeans 1-hour chart August 29
ZS1 Soybeans 1-hour chart August 29

Futures of soybeans are trading positive for the second day as investors are trading in a mix of profit-taking ahead of the end of the month, good news in the trade war and improving crop reports.

Soybeans accelerated in the last few hours to break above the 8.68 short term resistance, and it is now trading at 8.70, its highest level since August 26. Improvements in the trade war and new commercial options for US grains lifted the unit.

Currently, the oilseed is trading 0.40% positive on the day at 8.69, and the 8.70 area is working as a strong resistance. Technical indicators are still slightly bearish, but RSI and MACD are suggesting a short term bullish continuation. So, traders could expect an 8.72 test in the case the unit breaks above the 8.70 level.

Above 8.70, check for the 8.80 and 8.90 as possible buying zones.

Wheat down for the second day after performing a brief bullish recovery

Wheat is trading negative on Thursday as the unit was unable to break above the upper side of the range it has been trading in the last two weeks.

With a range between 4.66 and 4.77 acting as frontiers, wheat remains to trade in consolidation mode ahead of the end of the month, possible profit-taking and more developments on the trade war.

As reported yesterday, wheat was turning positive in the short term from sub 4.70 levels; however, it respected the range earlier on Thursday and it capped the grain’s recovery. After testing the 4.77 area, wheat was sent down to check the 4.72 area.

Now, the 1-hour chart is showing technical indicators suggesting more room for the downside, where the 4.70 area would be waiting for the pair for a new test.

In any case, remember that range’s bottom side is at 4.66, which will act as support in the case the grain flies to that part of the chart.

Corn extends recovery

ZC1 Corn Futures 1-hour chart August 29
ZC1 Corn Futures 1-hour chart August 29

Corn is trading positive for the second day as investors are closing positions ahead of the end of the month.

On Thursday, corn rallied from 3.64 intra-day low to trade as high as 3.74, its highest level since August 22. Then, the unit felt vertigo, and it started to fall to more moderate prices. It is now trading 0.40% positive at 3.72.

The 1-hour chart is now showing an increasing bearish sentiment backed by the MACD and RSI technical studies. Immediate support is at the 3.71 area, then, 3.69 and 3.66 are the levels to watch.

Soybeans, Corn Down, But Wheat is Giving a Possible Bullish Signal

Corn, Soybeans and other softs futures are trading down on the day as investors are trading quietly and with low volume, as they are waiting for more developments in the trade war between the United States and China.

On the other side, wheat is trading negative, but it is now giving signals of a potential u-turn in the prices. Technical indicators are suggesting that a possible bullish movement is in the making.

Soybeans break below 8.55 and accelerate losses

ZS1 Soybean Futures 1-hour chart August 28
ZS1 Soybean Futures 1-hour chart August 28

Futures of soybeans are trading down on Wednesday as investors are digesting improving crop conditions and trade war developments. The grain is extending is rejection from the 8.63 level touched on Tuesday and today, it broke the dynamic uptrend line at 8.60, which comes from August 27 low.

Soybeans broke below the August 23 lows at 8.55, and it is now trading at intra-day minimums at 8.53, the grains cheapest price since August 8.

With the contract now posting 0.76% daily decline, technical conditions in the 1-hour chart are suggesting more room for the downside with Oscillator and MACD pointing to the south.

The unit is now heading to the 8.50 critical support. Below there, a break of the 8.45 level will expose multi-year low of 7.90.

Corn slides a bit more, but it attempts to recover

ZC1 Corn Futures 1-hour chart August 28
ZC1 Corn Futures 1-hour chart August 28

Futures of corn are trading slightly negative on Wednesday as investors are waiting for trade war developments. On the day, corn prices found support at the 3.64 area and it started to recover ground to price at 3.65’4, which is 0.20% positive so far in the day.

The unit is now facing the short term resistance of 3.66. Technical indicators, however, are mixed but they are also suggesting that the potential downside is stronger than the upside. Also, moving averages are pointing to the south.

Corn needs a break above the 3.66 to recover some upside potential. Above there, it will face resistance at 3.69 and the 3.70 area.

On the other hand, in the case of futures of corn are not able to break above the 3.66, it will return all the way down to a retest of the 3.64 level. Then, supports are at 3.61 and 3.58.

Wheat remains inside the range, down on the day

ZW1 Wheat Futures 1-hour chart August 28
ZW1 Wheat Futures 1-hour chart August 28

Wheat returned to the range between 4.60 and 4.80 early in the day after a brief adventure above it. Then, the unit has been falling until it found support at 4.71 just moments ago.

Futures of wheat are now trading on recovery mode, but it is facing the 4.74 short term resistance at this moment. Currently, the unit is still 0.70% negative on the day. However, a potential bullish movement is now on the cards.

Technical conditions in the 1-hour chart are showing a possible recovery extension as Momentum and MACD are signaling a turn in the short term trend. In that case, a price consolidation above 4.70 will open the door for a new test of the upper side of the range at 4.77. Above there, 4.80 and 4.82 will be the resistances.

However, in the case the pair resumes its decline, 4.68 will be the first support, followed by the bottom of the range at 4.66 and finally the 4.62 area.

Soybeans, Corn, Recovers Ground on Improved Crop Rate and Trade War

Corn, soybeans, and other softs futures in review as investors are digesting news about the trade war and improving crop conditions in the United States.

Early in the day, soybeans, wheat and corn traded sideways or negative but grains recovered ground in an improved sentiment. However, rising USD/CNY is adding more risks to farmers’ sales to China due to an expensive dollar.

Crops are improving. USDA says

According to the latest USDA Crop Progress Report, corn condition improved to 57% of crops rated good to excellent, better than the 56% reported a week ago. 71% of corn entered the dough stage, significantly lower than 87% on average at this time in the last five years.

Soybeans’ crop is rated 55% good or excellent, an improvement from the 53% published the previous week. 94% of soybean crops are blooming, lower than the 99% five-year average.

Spring wheat was rated 38% complete, well below the five year average of 65% at this time of the year.

Soybeans recover ground but remain negative on Tuesday

ZS1 Futures of Soybean August 27
ZS1 Futures of Soybean August 27

Soybeans are trading negative on Tuesday, but it is giving some signs of recovery in the American morning.

As expected yesterday, futures of soybeans bounced back at the 8.61 area to take almost 1.0% in profits around the 8.70 resistance area. After that, the unit resumed its downtrend until it found support at 8.58 per bushel on Tuesday.

Currently, the unit is trading 0.55% negative in the day at 8.62. Technical conditions in the one-hour chart suggest more recoveries with the 8.67 as the first resistance, then, 8.70 and 8.72 are the levels to watch.

The 8.58 was an excellent level to enter a long position as RSI was giving a bullish signal. However, right now we may want to wait for more developments. That being said, the unit needs to maintain the 8.60 area before extending its recovery.

Pay attention to the RSI plus a possible MACD bullish cross in the next hours.

To the downside, a break below the 8.60 level would open the doors for a retest of the intra-day low at 8.58, then, 8.55 would be the profit-taking level.

Corn trades sideways, but it accelerates in the last hour

ZC1 Futures Corn August 27 1-hour chart
ZC1 Futures Corn August 27 1-hour chart

Corn was trading sideways on Tuesday; however, significant bullish interest was arisen in the American morning with the unit jumping to 3.69, where the unit got a rejection.

The unit is now trading 0.14% on the day at 3.67 per bushel. Technical conditions are mixed in the 1-hour chart with oscillators pointing to the upside but moving average moving down.

To the downside, supports are at the 3.66-3.65 area. Below there, please check for 3.63 as the next buying zone.

Soybeans lead grains, rollercoaster with buying zone Opportunity

Corn, soybeans, and other softs futures are trading mixed on Monday as investors are digesting China imports of US agricultural goods in July and a new US-Japan trade deal.

China imports of soybean rose significantly in July as ships that were booked during the bilateral truce in December arrived.

Besides, US President Trump and Japan Prime Minister Abe agreed in a trade deal between the two countries. “It’s a very big transaction, and we’ve agreed in principle. It’s billions and billions of dollars. Tremendous for the farmers,” Trump said to reporters in Biarritz, in the French Basque Country.

So, on Monday, agricultural futures traded in a kind of rollercoaster led by soybeans as grains posted gains amid forecast lower revision and tensions between the United States and China. But then, a conciliatory tone of Donald Trump regarding China, and the deal with Japan pushed prices down.

Soybeans rally, but rejects 8.70, trading idea above 8.60

ZS1 Futures Soybean 1-hour chart August 26
ZS1 Futures Soybean 1-hour chart August 26

Soybeans rallied at the opening of the Monday session as investors welcomed news from China purchases in July and a new trade deal between Japan and the United States. Futures of Soybeans jumped from 8.55 to trade as high as 8.70.

However, the unit was unable to sustain levels, and it started to retrace towards the 8.60 area in the American morning. Currently, soybean is trading at 8.63, 0.85% positive on the day.

Technical conditions suggest a potential bullish outbreak with the 8.60 area as a buying zone. MACD seems to be ready to go above the zero line with the faster line going above the slower one. Also, the 8.60 level looks like strong short term support.

Price target would be at 8.70 for the first revision, but 8.72 is also possible as it is a good resistance that traders have used as selling area in the past.

That being said, other technical studies, including Momentum, highlights the bearish condition of the oilseed with the 8.57 and 8.55 as immediate supports.

Corn left behind the 3.71 finally

ZC1 Futures Corn 1-hour chart August 26
ZC1 Futures Corn 1-hour chart August 26

Futures of corn are trading down on Monday despite forecasts for lower US yield and production. However, WASDE report is altering all perceptions, so experts are awaiting for September forecasts.

The grain started the day with gains that drove the unit to the testing of the 3.71 level. However, the contract was rejected and corn fell to 3.66.

Currently, corn is trading at 3.67, 0.07% negative in the day. Technical conditions are mix with MACD and Awesome Oscillator pointing to the downside, but Momentum highlighting an upside opportunity.

If you are a trader, a break below the 3.65 level will open the door for a retest of the 3.58 area.

To the upside, a break above the 3.71 will be a bullish signal for a test of the 3.74 resistance first, and then the 3.80 area.

Corn, Soybeans Down After China Tariffs, Wheat Positive, All Eyes on Trump

Corn, Soybeans and other softs futures are under pressure after the last round of retaliations between the United States and China. Investors are, in the same way, holding their breath ahead of possible countermeasures from an angry Trump that would be announced Friday afternoon.

Soybeans collapse after China tariffs news

Soybean futures are extending losses on Friday as investors are digesting news that china will impose 15% tariffs to all beans from the United States starting September 1.

Currently, soybeans are trading 1.55% down on the day at $8.55 per bushel; a 13 cents decline per bushel from the price which opened the day at 8.63.

Previously, the unit was keeping the 8.68 support on play, but China’s news exacerbated sells with the bean breaking below that level earlier in the day and then the 8.58 in the last hour.

Investors are now closing positions ahead of the weekend but also ahead of Trump retaliation measure that he will announce this afternoon. Farmers are holding their breath as worries of an even ugliest framework for their business is on the cards.

Technically, futures of soybeans are poised to extend declines with the 8.52 level as the next support, then, 8.49 and 8.45.

On the week, soybean is ready to close negative for the second week in a row as the unit confirmed a middle term resistance at the 8.80 area — 8.44 on sight.

Corn trades down and confirms a short term downtrend

Corn is trading down on Friday as investors are worried about Trump’s retaliation that would be announced later on the day.

Currently, corn is trading 1.20% down on the day at $3.66 per bushel. Corn is falling after two days of timid gains in the grain. However, technical indicators are signaling more room for the downside, and the 3.60 support looks as a destiny for the unit.

That being said, fundamental factors are governing the grains market in the United States. Also, angry farmers that are raising complains against president Trump trade war agenda and the divergencies between WASDE report and the Pro Farmer Crop Tour numbers on acreage yield.

On the week, corn is closing the period on red but still far from previous week lows. The weekly chart also shows a strong bearish trend and indicators signaling more drops in the next periods.

Wheat positive for the third day

Wheat is trading positive on Friday as China retaliation measures are not hitting contract prices. However, the market is waiting for Trump measures to be announced Friday afternoon.

On the day, wheat jumped to trade at $4.75 per bushel, but it then returned to trade in consolidation mode around 4.70. Currently, the grain is trading 0.26% positive at 4.73.

However, wheat is still negative on the week as the 4.77 level contains the unit, and it is posting 0.55% weekly losses. Technical weekly conditions are suggesting more losses in the middle term. A retest of the 4.60 area is on the cards.

Corn, Soybeans and Other Softs Review Yield Revisions and Angry Farmers

Corn, Soybeans and other softs futures are in review following Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour numbers and divergencies with the WASDE report.

Also, the USDA is complaining about threats against their officials from angry farmers.

Pro Farmer Crop Tour’s different numbers and the Angry Farmers

The widely watched crop tour is pointing to a lower reading for Illinois crop yields in contrast to the WASDE figures reported two weeks ago. Illinois is a big concern for farmers and grain investors are it is the second-largest corn-growing state in the US.

In this framework, US farmers are complaining that the government crop report did not reflect damage from extreme weather conditions in the last months; and it looks like they are right after the Pro Farmer Crop Tour is reporting significantly lower yields than the WASDE report.

Farmers are also frustrated because of the damage the trade war is inflicting to businesses and the incapability to sell crops.

In that situation, angry farmers are starting to complain in a more vigorous way against government officials as Hubert Hamer, administrator of the statistics service, said in a statement.

“A USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service employee received a threat while on the Pro Farmer Crop Tour from someone not involved with the tour.” So, they pulled all their staff out of the pro tour.

Soybeans at highs of the day

ZS1 Soybean Futures 1-hour chart August 22
ZS1 Soybean Futures 1-hour chart August 22

Soybeans are trading higher for the third day as investors are digesting Pro Farmer Midwest Crop tour reports on more downward revisions on yield prospects. The unit is on its way to test the 8.83 area, where August highs are.

The oilseed is currently moving higher after the unit broke the 8.76 area and it is now intra-day highs at 8.82. The contract is 0.74% positive on the day.

The 1-hour chart shows some bullish interest, but the unit will need a break above highs of 8.83 as mentioned before. Above that level, future contracts for soybean will see 8.92 as the next resistance. Above, the psychological $9.00 per bushel will be waiting.

To the downside, 8.76 is the support in the short term. Below, the 8.73-8.72 area is a congested zone where bulls and bears are fighting. Then, pay attention to the 8.72 support.

Corn recovers from intra-day lows

ZC1 Corn Future 1-hour chart August 22
ZC1 Corn Future 1-hour chart August 22

Futures of corn are trading in recovery mode after a brief drop that sent the unit to trade at lows of the day at 3.68. Then, the contract bounced at that price and reached the high of the day at 3.74.

Previously on the day, the unit was trading virtually flat around 3.71 as investors were digesting Pro Farmer Midwest Crop tour yield revisions to the downside and news of angry farmers complaining against Trump agenda on trade war and farm products.

Currently, corn contracts are trading at 3.71 again, 0.27% positive on the day. Technical studies signal more sideways in the hourly chart, but if we open the microscope a bit, the unit remains bearish with the 3.80 acting as a container for any upside attempt.

Supports are now at the mentioned $3.68 per bushel, then the intra-week low at 3.66 and the 3.64 critical level.

To the upside, 3.72 is again a resistance, above there, the mentioned 3.80, August 20 high, and finally the 3.87 critical level.

Wheat failed at 4.73, back to previous levels

ZW1 Wheat Futures 1-hour chart August 22
ZW1 Wheat Futures 1-hour chart August 22

Futures of Wheat are trading positive for the second day on Thursday as investors are digesting crop yields and angry farmer reports. Recently, the unit bounced back from intra-day lows at 4.66 to break above the 4.69 resistance, and it pushed forward to $4.73 per bushel.

However, the unit was unable to sustain gains, and it is now trading back to 4.69, where it is trading now, still 0.32% positive on the day.

The 4.75 level contains the unit, and the 4.62 area supports it. Technical conditions suggest a more positive approach coming, but the strength is not enough.

Pro Farmer Crop Tour Lower Expected Acre Yields, Grains Mixed

The Pro Farmer Crop Tour reported lower acreage yield estimates than the previously reported by the WASDE report. Investors have a hard time digesting the information and to decide which information they do believe.

Meanwhile, prices of grains are trading mixed as they attempted to post gains but were unable to sustain levels. Only soybean is adding gains on the day.

Corn trades sideways but looks heavy

Corn is trading in consolidation mode after a rejection of the 3.80 level that sent the unit to 3.68 on Tuesday. Today, the bushel of corn is trading at 3.70, which is 0.35% positive on the day.

Investors are digesting the divergences between the WASDE and Pro Farmer Crop Tour reports about the acreage yield.

Technically, corn futures looks heavy and studies are signaling more room for the downside with the 3.60 area as the next critical support. Below there, please check the 3.50 and 3.40 levels as essential zones of buying.

On the other hand, any bullish intention will have a hard time trying to break above the 3.80 area as it is now working as a strong resistance. In the case the bushel of corn breaks above that price, 3.87 will be the next level to watch.

Long story short, corn trades sideways, but it looks ready to extend declines.

Wheat extends declines to three-month lows

Wheat is trading down for the third day in a row as the unit is extending its decline from the 4.77 area started on August 19. Today, the unit fell to 4.60, its lowest level since May 16.

Currently, futures of wheat are trading at 4.62, 0.70% negative in the day. Technical conditions suggest more room for the downside with the 4.55 as the next support that the grain would face.

Below there, please check the 4.50 level and then 4.45, 4.35, and 4.27 as supports.

To the upside, the odds are limited, but any recovery in the grain would need to break the 4.77 level. A consolidation above that area would open the door for more gains until the unit faces a new resistance at 4.85. Then, check the 5.00 and 5.07 levels for selling pressure.

Soybean recovers two days of losses

Soybean futures are trading positive on Wednesday as investors are digesting Pro Farmer Crop Tour reports. The unit is recovering two days of losses, and it is now testing intra-week highs at 8.77.

Currently, soybeans are moving t 8.75, 0.81% positive on the day. Technical indicators are mixed, so investors don’t expect a significant movement in the oilseed. Nevertheless, a break above the 8.80 area would open the door for more gains.

Above 8.80 per bushel, soybean will find the next resistance at 8.85, then 8.95 and the psychological 9.00 level.

To the downside, the unit needs a close below 8.65 to give bears hope for more declines. Then, 8.55 would be the immediate support, followed by the 8.44 critical level.

Grains Lose Steam and Extend Declines

Grains are trading down on Tuesday as investors are digesting deteriorating crop conditions and lower yield in the acreage. However, the market is still confident from the WASDE report published last week.

53% of the Soybean crop was rated good or excellent according to the USDA report published on Sunday. It is down from the 54% announced the previous week.

Corn crop was rated 56% good or excellent, 1% down from the previous week. Spring wheat was rated 70% good or excellent, up from 69% the previous week.

Soybean positive but losing ground

Soybeans are fighting to maintain early gains as the unit rose to trade as high as 8.74 on Tuesday, but it was unable to maintain levels, and it retraced to current levels around opening price.

At the moment of writing, futures of soybean are trading at 8.70, 0.45% daily gains. Technical conditions are mixed but slightly pointing to the upside. The bull case is also backed by deteriorating crop conditions in the United States.

To the upside, soybean will find resistance at 8.80, above there, 8.85, August 13 high, and then the psychological 9.00 per bushel area.

To the downside, the pair seems sustained by the 8.55 area, where the minimums of August 15 and 16 are. Below there, please check for the 8.50 level, and then the 8.44 critical support.

Corn rejects the 3.80 area

After jumping to the 3.80 level, futures of corn weren’t able to sustain gains, and the unit got a rejection that sent it to test the 0.70 area. The pair is almost at the same price where the previous week closed.

In this way, corn is finishing its recovery from August 14 and 15 lows at 3.58. Technical support are mixed, but the downside is more favored.

Immediate resistance is at 3.70, followed by the 3.60 and 3.58 area. Below there, 3.50 and May 13 low at 3.43 are the frontiers.

Wheat extends declines from 4.77

Wheat is extending its rejection of the 4.77 area performed on Monday and it is now breaking below the 4.65 level and reaching prices not seen since May 17.

Currently, wheat is trading at 4.64, 1.64% down in the day. Technical conditions suggest that the downside is far from ending and the next supports are likely to be 4.50, 4.30 and the May 13 low of 2.18.

Grains Head Down Amid Improved Weather Conditions

Grains such as soybeans and corn opened the week with a positive gap; however, both units are trading negative on the day. The reason is improved weather conditions in the U.S. midwest.

On the other hand, Successful Farming analyst said in a recent report, “some analysts believe the USDA overshot in its report and believe the corn acreage figure will come in well below the agency’s forecast.”

So, whom we should believe? As for now, the market thinks the USDA and the WASDE report are right, and grain prices are trading depressed. A piece of good news for farmers, which is improved weather in their farms, but it is also bad news because prices per bushels are going down.

Commerzbank analysts said in a daily note that “amid the ongoing trade disputes between the U.S. and China, high stocks and the expectation of a high South American crop, many market participants see no reason to believe in any lasting price recovery.”

Also, the CoT reported a decline in the long positions for corns to the lowest since May. Investors were net long 21,527 corn contracts, the smallest bullish stance in the week of May 28.

On the other hand, soybeans watched how their net-bearish contracts declined to 67,203 contracts, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, below the 76,318 reported the previous week.

Wheat net-long positions declined to 4,000 contracts from 7,121 the previous week.

Corn opens near to 3.80, but it trades down

Prices of Corn daily chart August 19
Prices of Corn daily chart August 19

Corn is trading down on Monday after opening with a positive gap near to 3.80 per bushel. Currently, prices of corn are moving at 3.75 per bushel, reporting 1.21% daily decline from the opening price.

Technical conditions suggest a recovery on the cards with the 3.80 as immediate resistance. Above there, please check for the 3.87 level as the next selling zone. To the downside, 3.70 is the new support. Below there, 3.58 is a critical level.

Soybeans sustain opening price near to 8.74

Daily chart for Soybeans August 19
Daily chart for Soybeans August 19

Soybeans also opened the week with a positive gap at 8.74, then the unit attempt new highs near to 8.80 and then fresh lows at 8.70; however, the unit erased all that noise, and it is trading now at 8.74, 0.98% positive in the day.

Technical studies are showing certain bullish interest in the market, but the indicators are not strong enough. As for now, the unit has resistances at 8.80, 8.85, and 9.00.

To the downside, 8.70 is the immediate support. Below that level, 8.58, 8.50, and 8.44 are the zones to watch.

Wheat contained by the 4.77 level

August 19 Wheat daily chart
August 19 Wheat daily chart

Wheat remains trading in the same range it has been trading in the last five trading days between 4.66 and 4.77.

On Monday, the unit jumped to test the upper side of the range, but it was unable to break above that level. Then, it declined to 4.73, where it is moving right now with 0.48% daily declines.

Technical indicators suggest that all odds are poised for the downside, with the mentioned 4.66 level as the immediate support. Below there, check the 4.55, 4.47, and 4.30 as the next buying zones.

Grains up amid profit taking and cheap purchases

Grains are trading positive on Friday but are set to post significant weekly losses. Corn, as a sample, is performing its worst week since June 2016. Soybean movements have been moderated comparing with corn and wheat.

Profit taking is the theme of the day; also, some revival in risk appetite and corn long interest due to low prices per bushel.

Corn positive on Friday as profit taking rebalancing

Daily chart Corn August 16
Daily chart Corn August 16

Corn is moving up on Friday as investors are closing short positions ahead of the weekend. Also, buyers are taking positions on cheap grains. However, the week has been ugly for corn, and it is ready to close its worst week in 3 years.

Prices of corn are trading 1.32% positive at 3.65 on Friday as the unit is extending its rebound from the 3.59 area traded yesterday. On the week, the unit is falling 10.85% in the period. Its worst week in years, and also its fourth negative week in the last five.

Technical conditions are suggesting an undergoing recovery in the short term as the price fell too much too fast. The resistance is now at 3.70. Above there, 3.80 per bushel and then the 3.87 area.

To the downside, a break below the 3.60 area will open the door to a test of April lows at 3.55, and then 2019 lows at 3.43, traded on May 13.

Wheat consolidates lows on Friday

Prices of Wheat daily chart August 16
Prices of Wheat daily chart August 16

Wheat is trading slightly positive on Friday as they are closing positions ahead of the weekend. It is currently moving at $4.71 per bushel, 0.43% positive on the session.

However, wheat is falling 5.71% on the week, its most significant weekly decline since February.

Technical conditions remain depressed for the grain, with the 4.70 as essential support. Bellow there, 4.65 is the next level to watch. Then, 4.56, 430, and 4.20 are the potential buying zones.

Soybeans positive after two negative days

Futures of soybeans daily chart August 16
Futures of soybeans daily chart August 16

The case of soybeans is not as much dramatic as corn and wheat. The move in the oilseed has been more moderated that the other two grains with potential weekly losses of 1.56%.

On the day, soybean is trading at 8.65 per bushel, 0.85% positive after the unit bounced back from 8.58 on Thursday. The 8.70 area now contains the unit.

Technical conditions suggest more room for the downside, so, market could assume that today’s movement is due to profit taking. Watch out for the mentioned 8.58 as first support. Then, 8.50 and 8.40 as buying zones.

Grains Resume Downtrend After The USDA Export Sales Report

Grains such as soybeans, corn, and wheat are trading down on Thursday as investors are still digesting improved production forecast in the WASDE report and now watching the export sales numbers from the USDA.

Despite there are still concerns about the health of the farm season, improved weather and fewer supply concerns are pushing prices down. Besides, the USDA export sales report showed improvement in the market around the world.

USDA Weekly Export Sales report highlights:

Check the highlights from the USDA weekly export sales report.

Soybeans: Net sales reductions of 109,900 MT for 2018/2019 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. China led the reductions. For 2019/2020, net sales of 817,400 MT. Exports of 1,111,700 MT were up 16 percent from the previous week and 30 percent from the prior 4-week average. China was a critical buyer.

Wheat: Net sales of 462,200 metric tons for 2019/2020 were down 5 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. For 2020/2021, total net sales of 12,300 MT were for unknown destinations. Exports of 636,900 MT were up 73 percent from the previous week and 63 percent from the prior 4-week average.

Corn: Net sales of 56,100 MT for 2018/2019 were up 32 percent from the previous week, but down 56 percent from the prior 4-week average. For 2019/2020, net sales of 307,600 MT. Exports of 707,900 MT were up 2 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average.

Soybeans down for the second day

Prices of Soybeans Daily Chart August 15
Prices of Soybeans Daily Chart August 15

Futures of soybeans are trading down for the second day in a row as investors are digesting lower export sales of the oilseed in the United States.

On Thursday, soybeans extended declines from the 8.80 level traded on Wednesday to intra-day lows around 8.58 per bushel. Currently, Soybeans are trading at 8.60 per bushel, 0.61% down in the day.

Technical analysis are showing selling conditions with the chart pattern suggesting more room for the downside. Below the 8.60 level, next support will be the 8.50 area and then the 8.40 frontier.

To the upside, the unit needs a close above the 8.80 level as a primary condition to recover the bullish stance.

Corn looks ready to extend losses

Futures of Corn Daily price August 15
Futures of Corn Daily price August 15

After attempting to recover ground, corn prices returned to the negative field with the grain trading below the 3.60 level at 3.58, which is 0.05% down in the day.

Despite there are still concerns about the health of the corn season, improved weather and fewer supply concerns are pushing the unit down. Besides, the USDA export sales report showed improvement in the corn market around the world.

Technical conditions remain weak for corn, and the chart pattern suggests more losses in the short term. Watch 3.55, 3.40, and 3.38 as supports.

Wheat resumes its decline

Daily chart Wheat August 15
Daily chart Wheat August 15

After two days of recovery intentions, it seems that wheat buyers are giving up as the unit was unable to trade above the 4.80 area. On Thursday, futures of wheat are trading 0.70% negative at 4.70.

The unit seems ready to do a retest of the 4.65 level, August 13 low. Technical conditions remain weak for the unit, and the chart pattern is showing a brief period of consolidation undergoing as a preparation for further declines in the short term.

Below the 4.65, check for the 4.60, 4.55, and 4.50 as potential buying zones.

Grains Consolidate Levels Amid Improved Market Sentiment

Consolidation day for grains on Tuesday as investors are still digesting WASDE report, improving weather conditions for the next days in the United States and better export prices in America.

Prices for exportations in agricultural products rose 0.4% in July, better than expected. Also, a jump of 3.7% in agricultural exported prices in the last 12 months to July has lifted sentiment. It was the highest advance since June 2017.

Corn consolidates lows

Price of corn daily chart August 14
Price of corn daily chart August 14

Corn is trading in consolidating mode after performing two days of heavy losses amid improving expected production and the WASDE report. Just on the week, futures of corn has lost 10.6% of its value from Monday’s opening at 4.09 per bushel to current 3.66.

On the day, corn is trading 0.14% positive at 3.66, just after bouncing at 3.64, its lowest level since May 14, but the move was capped at the 3.70 level.

Technical conditions remain weak for the unit, and more declines are expected. Besides, improved weather conditions are hurting prices too. Next supports are at 3.60, 3.50, and 3.40 level.

To the upside, the expectation for rises is low. Any recovery should get a close above the 3.70 area. Then, 3.80 and 3.90 are the resistances.

Wheat tries its second day of recovery, but advance is minimal

Price of wheat daily chart August 14
Price of wheat daily chart August 14

Futures of wheat are trading positive on Wednesday after closing Tuesday with small gains. However, today it seems to be the same situation of yesterday with the unit capped by the 4.80 level.

Currently, wheat is trading at 4.75, 0.69% positive on the day. The unit is in recovery mood from lows since May 17 at 4.65 reached on Tuesday. However, the grain is still 4.90% negative in the week.

Technical conditions remain weak for the unit with the mentioned 4.65 level as first support. Then, 4.55 and 4.50 as buying zones.

To the upside, 4.80 is the immediate resistance; above there, the price needs a close above the 5.05 level to confirm recoveries. Then, 5.30 will be the most significant level to beat at the upside.

Soybeans down but it range

Futures of Soybeans daily price August 14
Futures of Soybeans daily price August 14

Soybean prices are trading down on Wednesday as the unit was unable to break above the 8.80 level. However, the unit remains trading sideways just above 8.70 per bushel.

Technical conditions are showing some exhaustion on the upside and a potential decline in the next days. With a weekly where other grains have suffered significant losses, soybeans are sustaining prices mostly due to stable conditions for expected supply.

However, overall improved market sentiment regarding the production of the season will eventually send prices down.

To the downside, 8.70 is the first support. Then, 8.63, and 8.50 are the next frontiers before the 8.40 area, where the minimum of August 5 lies.